Author Topic: $400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average  (Read 3315 times)

alyrahim113

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$400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average
« on: December 16, 2017, 01:12:39 AM »
Hello all,

I am relatively new to this whole investing thing and about to chuck a huge amount of my net worth (around $350,000) into the market so would really appreciate your advice and opinion.

I discovered ‘investing’ three months ago but I have always been quite financial savvy (well at least I think so). I have worked and saved hard for several years and have managed to save just a bit over $400,000 – all of which is just sitting in high interest bank accounts (earning 3%) and has been for quite a few years – not a very financial savvy move on my part but it could be worse I guess.

Anyway for the past three months I have tried to learn as much as I can about finance and investing. I have tried to read some books and discovered financial podcast which I love. I have come to the conclusion that ETF index investing is for me and have come up with a portfolio of index funds which includes the top 200 Australian companies (35%), bonds (10%), properties (20%), international companies (20%) and small companies index (15%). I live in Australia hence the top 200 Australian.

My plan is to invest $350,000 and keep $50,000 in cash for emergencies and good buying opportunities. My question is should I invest the whole lump sum or small amounts over a long period?

tarheeldan

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soccerluvof4

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Re: $400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average
« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2017, 02:53:19 AM »
History shows Lump sum BUT history does not prove future results. I had this dilemma/good problem to have so to sleep better at night I just put it in over a 6 months. In your case maybe 100k every month or on correction within that month so being early. Sharp correction put all in. Market goes up you will lose some dollars, market goes down you might protect some dollars so since we never know when it will happen yes dont DCA in but over a short period of time I think seeing how you handle it mentally is a good thing.

Ricksun

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Re: $400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average
« Reply #3 on: December 16, 2017, 04:14:49 AM »
History shows Lump sum BUT history does not prove future results. I had this dilemma/good problem to have so to sleep better at night I just put it in over a 6 months. In your case maybe 100k every month or on correction within that month so being early. Sharp correction put all in. Market goes up you will lose some dollars, market goes down you might protect some dollars so since we never know when it will happen yes dont DCA in but over a short period of time I think seeing how you handle it mentally is a good thing.

That's trying to time the market...  If you're not needing the cash anytime soon, just throw it all in at whatever asset allocation you feel comfortable with risk tolerance wise.
Ricksun

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Re: $400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average
« Reply #4 on: December 16, 2017, 07:00:56 AM »
Here's a great post about the topic: http://monevator.com/lump-sum-investing-versus-drip-feeding/

I think of it this way. I am in no way expert and I welcome any feedback this oversimplified picture.
  • The market goes up and down in a wibbly, unpredictable way. It's theoretically possible to make money by trying to time entry and exit with these wibbles, but in practice, it's not reliably achievable.
  • Overall the market goes up more than it goes down, that's what makes investing in it a worthwhile pursuit.
  • Since it goes up more than it goes down, more often than not, by drip feeding your money into the market you'd be losing out.
  • Also, in case you landed on the wrong side of a wibble, it's worth remembering that the longer your time horizon, the less significant the wibbles are to your results, as they get put into perspective by the overall upwards trend.

However it's scary to throw all of your available money into anything riskier than a bank account for the first time, and it's better to do it gradually than not at all. I'd say put in as much as you're comfortable doing, then repeat until you are at your target allocation, and try not to worry about it.

If you can though I really do vote for put it all in and then walk away. The first time I opened an investment account and transferred my savings into it, I checked it two days later just to see the transactions had gone through and so on, and found I was up £100. £100 made in two days just by doing a bit of reading and pressing some buttons! Holy smokes. I'll admit it was a psychological boost, after I'd steeled myself to carefully Not Panic if my hard earned money had appeared to diminish. But then I realised my glee was just as dangerous - wow £100 'profit'! I could take it out and do my big monthly shop for 'free'. Or I could sell up and 'lock in' my gains, and wait for a dip before I put it back in, thus maximising my returns (if I got it right...). Or maybe I should put more of my savings than I'd originally planned into this brilliant novelty that makes free money while I sleep?! I shuddered and closed the window and didn't log in for another six months, which was the right thing to do. I called my then-partner and was like 'omg, I can see why people get addicted to day trading, it's like gambling for rich people'.

Now that I'm used to the whole thing, I am way more chill. You'll get there too, but only by trying and staying sensible while reminding yourself of all the things that you've learned about what to do and not do :)

soccerluvof4

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Re: $400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2017, 03:07:24 AM »
History shows Lump sum BUT history does not prove future results. I had this dilemma/good problem to have so to sleep better at night I just put it in over a 6 months. In your case maybe 100k every month or on correction within that month so being early. Sharp correction put all in. Market goes up you will lose some dollars, market goes down you might protect some dollars so since we never know when it will happen yes dont DCA in but over a short period of time I think seeing how you handle it mentally is a good thing.

That's trying to time the market...  If you're not needing the cash anytime soon, just throw it all in at whatever asset allocation you feel comfortable with risk tolerance wise.
Ricksun



Maybe so and as I mentioned historically your right if you read my post BUT if he gets the jitters and pulls out on a dip thats worse. At least if he puts some in as he feel comfortable maybe will sleep better at night and stay with it.

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Re: $400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2017, 04:09:29 AM »
I vote lump it.

Also have a look at Vanguards wholesale funds. The fees and buy/sell spreads are basically the same as the ETFs but you don’t have to deal with a broker or share registries. And despite what the website says, you only need $100,000 to start (and it doesn’t have to be all in one fund).

EricL

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Re: $400,000 in cash - lump sum investing or dollar cost average
« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2017, 04:36:02 AM »
A dumb question, I know.  But I gotta ask.  Is there really a choice?  If you don't put it all into one investment, doesn't that mean you keep it in cash?  Keeping it under the mattress means you lose 2.5 - 3.3% a year to inflation.  Put it in a bank and you'll be lucky to get an interest rate low enough to knock inflation loss down to 1.5 - 2.2% a year.  The other alternative is bonds.  These beat inflation but usually not by much.  But bonds count as a formal investment, don't they?   Ditto real estate, beanie babies, bitcoin, etc. (Though admittedly I added the last only for comic effect).

So isn't the real choice Lump Sum Investing vs. Lump Sum Investing in Something Stable to Support Drip Investing into Something Conventionally Profitable?