Author Topic: FTSE in the future...  (Read 12528 times)

skip207

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FTSE in the future...
« on: September 20, 2017, 07:39:55 AM »
So we are at c.7200 today.

6 months ago we were also at c.7200.

12 months ago we were at c.6800.

So for a bit of fun post your predictions for mid March 2018 and mid September 2018.

They say you cant time the market but we find it very difficult not too so lets see if anyone has a crystal ball!

My own guess:

March - 6900
Sept - 7300

Monkeytennis

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #1 on: September 20, 2017, 12:07:13 PM »
I think the main driver of the draw price in the short and medium term will be the value of the pound(£).

I personally don’t pick stocks or markets, just use low fee globally diversified tracker funds invested for the next 40-50 years (hopefully) so the price of one stock market in the short term should be of limited interest.

That said, I’d guess the FTSE and all global markets are probably over valued vs historic measures and we’ve not had a global shock for a while, so I’d guess the ftse will be below where it is now.

frugledoc

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2017, 02:46:56 PM »
Not a prediction but just like to play.

FTSE 100 has a dividend yield of about 4%

Inflation is ~ 3%

So about 5% total return in a year would be 7500 - 7600.

However,  if the pound continues to rally it will be much lower (or much higher if the pound slumps).

All my money is in Vanguard All World so I only have about 5% exposure to the UK.

TartanTallulah

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2017, 01:54:59 PM »
A guessing game! I love guessing games!

March: 7,200
September: 5,600


cerat0n1a

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2017, 01:56:33 AM »
March: 8000
September: 8200

Why anybody would have more than 10-20% of their net worth in the FTSE, I don't know, given that we can buy shares from global stock markets (and have world index trackers in ISA, pension etc.)

If you look at spreadbetting prices, the current end of year FTSE spread is 7190-7280, not much different to today's price.

poppydog

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2017, 05:34:13 PM »
Seriously?  I have absolutely no idea!

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #6 on: February 22, 2018, 06:00:44 AM »
About a week to run to March and today we are still around 7200.  Interesting times!

TartanTallulah

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2018, 07:05:49 AM »
Crikey! I wasn't far off.  Just contemplating whether to sell all my stocks now in case my plausible random number for September also turns out to be close to the mark.

(Like many others here, I've got a global spread of investments and a lazy portfolio, so I'll be sitting firmly on my hands and continuing to drip-feed my ISA and my husband's SIPP.)

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2018, 07:59:09 AM »
A month to run, and currently at 7590.. been an interesting year will see where everything lands in another 4 weeks!

frugledoc

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2018, 11:03:40 AM »
Not a prediction but just like to play.

FTSE 100 has a dividend yield of about 4%

Inflation is ~ 3%

So about 5% total return in a year would be 7500 - 7600.

However,  if the pound continues to rally it will be much lower (or much higher if the pound slumps).

All my money is in Vanguard All World so I only have about 5% exposure to the UK.

Looks like I can predict the market after all. No more buy and hold for me!

NearlyThere

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #10 on: August 23, 2018, 08:54:34 AM »
With all thats happening in the world I've never been more uncertain on buy and hold. Continuing to do so. All in Lifestrategy 100%

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #11 on: September 07, 2018, 04:08:42 AM »
Looks like we're heading back to 7,200 again!

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #12 on: September 07, 2018, 04:31:03 AM »
Yep looking like things are starting to get a bit iffy.  I expect this will probably come and go over the next few months. 

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #13 on: September 07, 2018, 08:17:15 AM »
I've got my final two sizeable (£7.5k) pension contributions going in next week and a month later so quite nice to see a strong pound and the indexes down a bit.

poppydog

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2018, 05:45:42 AM »
Mrs PD and me retired at the end of April, and by the middle of June I'd transferred our employers DC pension funds into our SIPPs, and completed our investments into a portfolio of income producing Investment Trusts, and moved the SIPPs into drawdown.  The capital value is at the whim of the market now, but hopefully the dividend income will progress more smoothly.

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #15 on: September 17, 2018, 12:40:21 PM »
Close @ 7302... couple of days to run... good luck all :)

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #16 on: September 17, 2018, 01:08:12 PM »
Feel free to PM me this weeks lottery numbers skip207

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #17 on: September 20, 2018, 02:33:08 AM »
Well here we are 12 months later and 7337.

Anyone want to go again?

I suspect retail is going to have a very tough year and maybe we will see another couple of BOE rises.

March 19 - 6700
Sep 19 - 7000


cerat0n1a

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2018, 06:06:47 AM »
March 2019: Pound drops 15% due to Brexit no-deal fears. FTSE up to 8000.

September 2019: Pound worthless having been replaced by a tins of baked beans based barter system. FTSE-100 now based entirely on companies with foreign earnings. FTSE-100 8200.

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2018, 11:28:23 AM »
March 19 - 6700
Sept 19 - 5904

Storm’s coming.

frugledoc

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #20 on: September 21, 2018, 05:25:43 AM »
Quote from: never give up link=topic=79265.msg2142997#msg2142997 date=1537464503
Storm’s coming.
[/quote

It always is. Stay the course

TartanTallulah

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #21 on: September 21, 2018, 09:02:03 AM »
March 19: 6300
Sep 19: 6100


daverobev

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #22 on: September 21, 2018, 05:38:26 PM »
If the pound goes down, the FTSE 100 goes up - because most of the earnings are outside the UK anyway. FTSE 250 would be more interesting IMHO.

I dunno about the pound. After yesterday and today I'm a bit more concerned, but I'm reading far too much news at the moment. I reckon they'll muddle something - one way or another. It can't just be 'collapse'...

I'd guess that in March it'll be roughly where it is now. September, well, we're only just out of silly season, so again not much change.

7500 for both.

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #23 on: September 24, 2018, 05:59:23 AM »
I'm afraid I'm not going to play.  Whilst I don't believe anyone can predict what will happen to the FTSE, I am 100% confident in my ability to jinx it if I do play.

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #24 on: September 24, 2018, 07:18:41 AM »
That's the main reason I went so low :-)

Richardp10

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #25 on: October 03, 2018, 10:57:29 AM »
I’ll play!

March 19 7500

Sep 19 8500

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #26 on: March 11, 2019, 04:01:07 PM »
9 days to run and its looking like you might be closest for March... :)

Richardp10

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #27 on: March 15, 2019, 10:42:43 AM »
I’m in buying mode so wish it dropped to 5000! :)

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #28 on: March 20, 2019, 11:05:56 AM »
7291...   on to Sept!

Richard wins March :)

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2019, 11:08:10 AM »
Good job I’m an indexer and don’t try to market time.

cerat0n1a

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #30 on: March 21, 2019, 05:46:32 AM »
7291...   on to Sept!

Interesting to compare that with 6, 12 and 18 months ago. It hasn't changed much...

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #31 on: March 21, 2019, 06:30:22 AM »
7291...   on to Sept!

Interesting to compare that with 6, 12 and 18 months ago. It hasn't changed much...
I don't think it's wise to call the March number yet.  There's still every possibility of some big movements on March 29th...

daverobev

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #32 on: March 21, 2019, 07:25:03 AM »
7291...   on to Sept!

Interesting to compare that with 6, 12 and 18 months ago. It hasn't changed much...
I don't think it's wise to call the March number yet.  There's still every possibility of some big movements on March 29th...

See the OP:

Quote
So for a bit of fun post your predictions for mid March 2018 and mid September 2018.

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #33 on: March 21, 2019, 07:40:10 AM »
7291...   on to Sept!

Interesting to compare that with 6, 12 and 18 months ago. It hasn't changed much...
I don't think it's wise to call the March number yet.  There's still every possibility of some big movements on March 29th...

See the OP:

Quote
So for a bit of fun post your predictions for mid March 2018 and mid September 2018.
My bad!

UK Dancer

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #34 on: March 21, 2019, 07:46:51 AM »
My guesstimate for Sep: 7100

vand

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #35 on: March 08, 2020, 10:56:42 PM »
Are you all piling into the FTSE 100?

If not, why not? There's no need to go looking far afield for the great investment opportunities.. they're sitting right on our own doorstep.

With futures sitting at ~6060, our domestic market is unbelieveably cheap right now.. I make it CAPE = ~12.5 vs 18.5 30yr average.

https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2020/02/ftse-100-cape-valuation-forecast.html/

I shall be deploying the majority of my available funds over the next week, and also probably selling some bonds to buy more FTSE. Bonds have done great lately which have helped keep my portfolio relatively bouyant, but i don't see much more upside to bonds right now.

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2020, 02:30:17 AM »
FTSE falls by 9%... OUCH!

Dicey

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #37 on: March 09, 2020, 02:45:51 AM »
Nearly seven years into FIRE, I can't muster up the energy to even suss out what FTSE stands for, though it must be stored in my brain somewhere. Yawn. May I have another question, please?

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #38 on: March 09, 2020, 03:02:22 AM »
Ouch. Don’t panic UK Tax board people. This is all part of the process, so they tell us :-) Before I found these forums I was too scared to invest. I’ve learned a great deal since I’ve been on here. Now is the time to toughen up and check I was paying attention.

Having said that I’m just off to find someone kind to hug that (1) won’t give me the virus (2) won’t go to HR because they don’t like being hugged by a stranger at work.

cerat0n1a

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #39 on: March 09, 2020, 03:40:08 AM »
It was at 6950.6 at close on Dec 31 1999. I doubt many forecasters back then would've guessed at it being 1000 points lower more than 20 years later.

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #40 on: March 09, 2020, 04:19:34 AM »
It was at 6950.6 at close on Dec 31 1999. I doubt many forecasters back then would've guessed at it being 1000 points lower more than 20 years later.
On the other hand it's still nearly tripled from where it was at the end of 1990 - plus all the dividends over that period.

PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #41 on: March 09, 2020, 04:23:11 AM »
Ouch. Don’t panic UK Tax board people. This is all part of the process, so they tell us :-) Before I found these forums I was too scared to invest. I’ve learned a great deal since I’ve been on here. Now is the time to toughen up and check I was paying attention.

Having said that I’m just off to find someone kind to hug that (1) won’t give me the virus (2) won’t go to HR because they don’t like being hugged by a stranger at work.
Maybe you could make yourself a T shirt with a graph of the FTSE and 'I need a hug!' on it.  Better yet, make a few hundred and sell them.  Not only do you make some money, but you get a pool of easily-identified fellow huggers.

Manchester

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #42 on: March 09, 2020, 05:19:48 AM »
I'm lucky enough to be in a position where I have a few £'s free to throw into the FTSE... but is this not also market timing and should be avoided?  Should I not just stick to my usual routine and ignore ALL background noise, even when the price of stocks are cheaper than they've been previously?  We may not be at rock bottom yet (and if we go the same was as Italy, then we're nowhere near rock bottom).

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #43 on: March 09, 2020, 05:35:16 AM »
Great idea PhilB :-)

I see market timing as dancing in and out of the market Manchester. That is risky. There is no harm in investing for the long term at such times. I have cash believe it or not in my pension, so am taking the opportunity to invest this for the longer term. I’m just buying a little bit on a weekly basis in addition to my normal contributions.

vand

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #44 on: March 09, 2020, 06:41:36 AM »
It was at 6950.6 at close on Dec 31 1999. I doubt many forecasters back then would've guessed at it being 1000 points lower more than 20 years later.

Ha, you mean that valuations actually held some predictive power?
FTSE was grossly overpriced back in 1999. As of today the opposite is much more the case.

https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=GBR
« Last Edit: March 09, 2020, 06:44:06 AM by vand »

MisterA

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #45 on: March 09, 2020, 07:12:54 AM »
Are you all piling into the FTSE 100?

If not, why not? There's no need to go looking far afield for the great investment opportunities.. they're sitting right on our own doorstep.

With futures sitting at ~6060, our domestic market is unbelieveably cheap right now.. I make it CAPE = ~12.5 vs 18.5 30yr average.

https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2020/02/ftse-100-cape-valuation-forecast.html/

I shall be deploying the majority of my available funds over the next week, and also probably selling some bonds to buy more FTSE. Bonds have done great lately which have helped keep my portfolio relatively bouyant, but i don't see much more upside to bonds right now.

Trying to time the market is really difficult, and fraught with potential losses, as you well know (from another thread):

Well FWIW I have moved about half of my available cash into the FTSE100 in the last few days. I like that 5% yield.

vand

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #46 on: March 09, 2020, 09:07:42 AM »
Are you all piling into the FTSE 100?

If not, why not? There's no need to go looking far afield for the great investment opportunities.. they're sitting right on our own doorstep.

With futures sitting at ~6060, our domestic market is unbelieveably cheap right now.. I make it CAPE = ~12.5 vs 18.5 30yr average.

https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2020/02/ftse-100-cape-valuation-forecast.html/

I shall be deploying the majority of my available funds over the next week, and also probably selling some bonds to buy more FTSE. Bonds have done great lately which have helped keep my portfolio relatively bouyant, but i don't see much more upside to bonds right now.

Trying to time the market is really difficult, and fraught with potential losses, as you well know (from another thread):

Well FWIW I have moved about half of my available cash into the FTSE100 in the last few days. I like that 5% yield.

It certainly is difficult, but that is why I deploy in chunks.  I don't claim to be able to pick the bottom.. but I'm happy to buy aggressively when I see distressed selling because there's a much better chance that is when you are getting a bargain. Mr Market could always offer an even better bargain tomorrow, but I am happy to buy this index on the valuations on offer right now. À


Manchester

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #47 on: March 09, 2020, 09:31:49 AM »
@vand I think I'm aligned to you in this.  I have some available money.  Was going to pump some in last week, but was busy with other things and didn't get round to it.  I'm tempted to put some in today and split it into chunks to deposit bi-weekly until the end of the tax year.  But I don't know if this just classes as market timing and is foolish in the long run.  If it's dropped 8% over the weekend, it could drop another 8% by the end of the week.  Alternatively, it could recover.  No-one knows I guess, but I wanted to pump a bit of spare cash into my ISA before the end of the tax year anyway, and now seems as good a time as any to do it really?




PhilB

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #48 on: March 09, 2020, 11:14:22 AM »
I have a big wodge of cash and I'm sorely tempted to buy the FTSE at the current price, but I won't because it wouldn't make any sense for me to do so.  If the markets return to growth then I already have enough stocks.  If they don't then I'm better off with my cash.  It's really dull when you have an asset allocation you're happy with.

skip207

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Re: FTSE in the future...
« Reply #49 on: March 09, 2020, 03:11:38 PM »
I wont be buying anything for at least 2 weeks.  I doubt we will see the real picture till then.
Italy just announced big national restrictions.  If the UK has to do similar the markets will have to be suspended surely.
Its all crazy stuff but I think the next few months could be a serious dip. 

 

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