COVID 19 could cause us problems?

[skip207]

So, it looks like we are likely to see at the very least some major issues with this COVID19 outbreak.

I am c.2-3 years away from FIRE.

Could this be the biggest risk factor to date?  How will the markets cope?

How will we all cope if massive swathes of the UK are put on lock down like they have done in China.  Talk of Bns of $ of damage to their economy per day.  Imagine if big factories get shut down due to outbreaks, Warburtons or P&G, Arla etal??

If we do end up in a full pandemic situation its quite possible it will last at least a year.... gulp.

[daverobev]

Way less of a risk than Brexit IMHO (to the UK specifically, not globally).

Just stockpile a little. Stock markets are ready to correct (look at valuations, long bull market, etc etc etc), that shouldn't have any impact on FIRE plans - if your FIRE plan requires the market to do something, it isn't a FIRE plan. You need to be in a position where any and all sane eventualities are covered (and a global pandemic is absolutely a sane eventuality, it has happened in the past and it will happen again).

The Chinese economy is now the second largest on the planet, the UK's in dollar value a loooooong way behind.

Plus, the outbreak is mostly killing the old and those with weak immune systems. Unless you are in one of those groups... just ignore it.

[Imma]

I'm not too worried about this yet. Yes, it will have economic consequences, we're just about to start to experience this as trade from China is slowing down. Market corrections will happen. But the virus doesn't seem particularly dangerous or fast spreading. It's a danger but it's not Ebola or the black death. I am way more concerned about Brexit too. I am seeing firsthand that a lot of businesses are not ready and I'm not sure how likely it is there will be a good divorce deal with the EU.

[skip207]

On a very basic level I see it as a major threat because my income is being saved to meet my FIRE date.  No income, no FIRE date.   No income and I might have to eat into my EF.  Eat all my EF and I might end up eating some of my FIRE pot.

If businesses have to shut down here like whats happened in China then its going to cause massive economic problems.  The damage it could do might take years to recover from.  Given I am t- 3 years at the most from FIRE this is a big threat?

[former player]

If COVID19 is in the UK extensively it probably means that it has become endemic world-wide or will become so, and the only thing for any country to do at that point is carry on as normal, ride out the additional illnesses and deaths and hope that it is a one-off for this year rather than becoming a flu-like illness that mutates and comes back year after year - in which case life expectancies will start going down significantly.

[Manchester]

COVID 19 is very similar to Bird Flu a few years ago.  That was going to be the end of the world if you remember?  Now it's rarely talked about less than a decade later.

I'm sure COVID 19 is a pretty horrible virus to catch.  But we can't predict the stock market, there's no point worrying about it.  There's a chance that stocks (especially in the west) could rise due to troubles in the east etc.  Just stick to the game plan and ignore the white noise!

[skip207]

Quite the day on the markets...

[Playing with Fire UK]

There will always be something that is about to cause a giant crash or break society or stop businesses operating. If this is making you nervous maybe it's time to review your asset allocation. Being a couple of years away from FIRE is an emotionally vulnerable time, it might make sense to hold more cash or bonds.

[Manchester]

I'm not too disappointed with the markets recently...  Good for the likes of myself at the start of my FIRE journey.  I've got quite a bit in savings that I'm considering offloading into my S&S ISA before the end of year deadline.  I've got roughly 6 months spending in there currently, I'm tempted to put 50% of that into investments at the end of this month if stocks continue to plummet (as well as my usual contributions), and then I'll plow any extra money back into savings until I get back up to 6 months?

Stocks on sale... right?

[vand]

In terms of portfolio protection you can and probably should reexamine your asset allocation. It's entirely dependent on your own risk profile but as you move closer to FI it makes much sense to adopt a less aggressive mix; dial back on equities and increase bonds, cash and gold.

In terms of protecting ourselves to exposure and minimizing daily disruptions, I'll hand it over to the preppers and WHO...

[MisterA]

Come on guys, get real. The Spanish Flu pandemic 1918-1920 killed between 40-100 million, with a world population of a fraction of what it is now, and very little international travel:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

No, it's not like bird flu 5 years ago! More like Spanish Flu of 1918.

There is currently no vaccine, and none likely for the foreseeable. Yes, Covid19 might die down, but it doesn't look like it.

The markets have already reacted in a relatively small way, with 80k cases and 3k deaths. Nobody know what might happen, but just watch the news tonight. Maybe we should invest in face-masks and antibacterial hand-wash.

[Manchester]

Come on guys, get real. The Spanish Flu pandemic 1918-1920 killed between 40-100 million, with a world population of a fraction of what it is now, and very little international travel:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

No, it's not like bird flu 5 years ago! More like Spanish Flu of 1918.

There is currently no vaccine, and none likely for the foreseeable. Yes, Covid19 might die down, but it doesn't look like it.

The markets have already reacted in a relatively small way, with 80k cases and 3k deaths. Nobody know what might happen, but just watch the news tonight. Maybe we should invest in face-masks and antibacterial hand-wash.

I'm sorry, but this is pure and simple fear-mongering.  You cannot compare the conditions in 1918 to 2020.  The reason so many died during that period was because of malnourishment (after the first world war) and poor hygiene standards.  In fact, the 'swine flu' pandemic in 09/10 was a very similar form of disease.  That infected 21% of the population of the world - barely anyone remembers that!  The mortality rate SEEMS high currently because it's focussed in China where:

1 - Health Care is bad
2 - Hygiene standards are bad
3 - The average person is poorer and less healthy

Whereas the UK has been investing heavily and working hard behind the scenes to combat these pandemics.  We are fully prepared for the disease, obviously, there will be more deaths, but on a worldwide scale it will pale into insignificance compared to deaths caused by Cars, Suicide, Heart Disease, Cancer, Malaria etc etc etc.

I reckon it's a good shout to invest into anti-bac handwash though - although we've already missed the boat on this.  Another interesting stock winner is the video conferencing industry.  Zoom's stock price has risen considerably in the past few days....  Not that it matters to index fund investors though.

[former player]

Come on guys, get real. The Spanish Flu pandemic 1918-1920 killed between 40-100 million, with a world population of a fraction of what it is now, and very little international travel:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

No, it's not like bird flu 5 years ago! More like Spanish Flu of 1918.

There is currently no vaccine, and none likely for the foreseeable. Yes, Covid19 might die down, but it doesn't look like it.

The markets have already reacted in a relatively small way, with 80k cases and 3k deaths. Nobody know what might happen, but just watch the news tonight. Maybe we should invest in face-masks and antibacterial hand-wash.

I'm sorry, but this is pure and simple fear-mongering.  You cannot compare the conditions in 1918 to 2020.  The reason so many died during that period was because of malnourishment (after the first world war) and poor hygiene standards.  In fact, the 'swine flu' pandemic in 09/10 was a very similar form of disease.  That infected 21% of the population of the world - barely anyone remembers that!  The mortality rate SEEMS high currently because it's focussed in China where:

1 - Health Care is bad
2 - Hygiene standards are bad
3 - The average person is poorer and less healthy

Whereas the UK has been investing heavily and working hard behind the scenes to combat these pandemics.  We are fully prepared for the disease, obviously, there will be more deaths, but on a worldwide scale it will pale into insignificance compared to deaths caused by Cars, Suicide, Heart Disease, Cancer, Malaria etc etc etc.

I reckon it's a good shout to invest into anti-bac handwash though - although we've already missed the boat on this.  Another interesting stock winner is the video conferencing industry.  Zoom's stock price has risen considerably in the past few days....  Not that it matters to index fund investors though.

I am not entirely convinced that one of the problems is "healthcare is bad in China".  There is this report from Bloomberg "Among the fatal cases at the Wuhan hospital, death typically occurred about a week after admission to the ICU, the researchers said."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals

Is Chinese intensive care so much worse than elsewhere?

Where do you get the idea that hygiene standards are bad in China?  Plus, average lifespan for China is 76 years old with an average healthy life span of 68.7 - which according to Google is now higher than the average healthy life span in the USA.

[maizefolk]

Yes this seems rather ignorant and bigoted honestly. @Manchester

I’ve spent time living in China, the healthcare is within the range I’ve seen in the USA (not as good as the best in the US, but a lot better than the worst), contrary to your statement the people have good standards of hygiene and the average person appears healthier and more fit than in the USA (in part people people walk a lot more, eat on average a healthier diet than the standard western diet).

In addition because the the different demographic profile in China vs the USA and Europe, there are fewer old people, those most as risk from this virus, as a percent of the overall population of people who could potentially be infected.

[MisterA]

the 'swine flu' pandemic in 09/10 was a very similar form of disease.  That infected 21% of the population of the world - barely anyone remembers that!

Globally, swine flu killed 0.02% of those who caught it, with coronavirus it's 2%, 100 times greater. With a similar transmission rate, that's something like 20 million people.

Did you watch the news tonight? The genie is well and truly out of the bottle, the world is taking unprecedented measures to try to stop the spread. But it's in countries like Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan (at war). I'm not so sure containment will work as well in these places.

I sincerely hope that you're right. In 6 months, quote my concerns and say 'told you'.

[Manchester]

Come on guys, get real. The Spanish Flu pandemic 1918-1920 killed between 40-100 million, with a world population of a fraction of what it is now, and very little international travel:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

No, it's not like bird flu 5 years ago! More like Spanish Flu of 1918.

There is currently no vaccine, and none likely for the foreseeable. Yes, Covid19 might die down, but it doesn't look like it.

The markets have already reacted in a relatively small way, with 80k cases and 3k deaths. Nobody know what might happen, but just watch the news tonight. Maybe we should invest in face-masks and antibacterial hand-wash.

I'm sorry, but this is pure and simple fear-mongering.  You cannot compare the conditions in 1918 to 2020.  The reason so many died during that period was because of malnourishment (after the first world war) and poor hygiene standards.  In fact, the 'swine flu' pandemic in 09/10 was a very similar form of disease.  That infected 21% of the population of the world - barely anyone remembers that!  The mortality rate SEEMS high currently because it's focussed in China where:

1 - Health Care is bad
2 - Hygiene standards are bad
3 - The average person is poorer and less healthy

Whereas the UK has been investing heavily and working hard behind the scenes to combat these pandemics.  We are fully prepared for the disease, obviously, there will be more deaths, but on a worldwide scale it will pale into insignificance compared to deaths caused by Cars, Suicide, Heart Disease, Cancer, Malaria etc etc etc.

I reckon it's a good shout to invest into anti-bac handwash though - although we've already missed the boat on this.  Another interesting stock winner is the video conferencing industry.  Zoom's stock price has risen considerably in the past few days....  Not that it matters to index fund investors though.

I am not entirely convinced that one of the problems is "healthcare is bad in China".  There is this report from Bloomberg "Among the fatal cases at the Wuhan hospital, death typically occurred about a week after admission to the ICU, the researchers said."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals

Is Chinese intensive care so much worse than elsewhere?

Where do you get the idea that hygiene standards are bad in China?  Plus, average lifespan for China is 76 years old with an average healthy life span of 68.7 - which according to Google is now higher than the average healthy life span in the USA.

Here's an article describing food safety in China:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/16/world/china-food-safety/index.html

According to this site: https://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/GB/CN
We have an average life span of more than 5 years than the typical Chinese person.  We also (on average) have around 74% more money than the average Chinese person. 

In the context of COVID19, I don't think it's unfair to say it's more likely to spread in poorer regions where people are more likely to share public transport, live in more confined spaces, work in factories in close proximity to others etc. 

Perhaps the health care in China is good.  As you said, intensive care seems to be good in most places in the world.  They did literally build a new hospital in 1 week in Wuhan, but where did all the staff come from?  Are they properly trained?  Are they being overworked? 

I've read that 95% of Chinese people have health insurance and the care is relatively cheap in China, but this insurance typically only covers half the cost of care. 

[former player]

[snip]

I am not entirely convinced that one of the problems is "healthcare is bad in China".  There is this report from Bloomberg "Among the fatal cases at the Wuhan hospital, death typically occurred about a week after admission to the ICU, the researchers said."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals

Is Chinese intensive care so much worse than elsewhere?

Where do you get the idea that hygiene standards are bad in China?  Plus, average lifespan for China is 76 years old with an average healthy life span of 68.7 - which according to Google is now higher than the average healthy life span in the USA.

Here's an article describing food safety in China:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/16/world/china-food-safety/index.html

According to this site: https://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/GB/CN
We have an average life span of more than 5 years than the typical Chinese person.  We also (on average) have around 74% more money than the average Chinese person. 

In the context of COVID19, I don't think it's unfair to say it's more likely to spread in poorer regions where people are more likely to share public transport, live in more confined spaces, work in factories in close proximity to others etc. 

Perhaps the health care in China is good.  As you said, intensive care seems to be good in most places in the world.  They did literally build a new hospital in 1 week in Wuhan, but where did all the staff come from?  Are they properly trained?  Are they being overworked? 

I've read that 95% of Chinese people have health insurance and the care is relatively cheap in China, but this insurance typically only covers half the cost of care.

I don't understand the relevance of food hygiene issues?  Which are obviously there but is there any evidence of transmission of the virus through food?

I'm pretty sure that any public transport in the UK is easily crowded and dirty enough to create the conditions for transfer of the virus.

I think it is easy to have outdated views of China because it has changed so much so fast.

[Manchester]

Yes this seems rather ignorant and bigoted honestly. @Manchester

I’ve spent time living in China, the healthcare is within the range I’ve seen in the USA (not as good as the best in the US, but a lot better than the worst), contrary to your statement the people have good standards of hygiene and the average person appears healthier and more fit than in the USA (in part people people walk a lot more, eat on average a healthier diet than the standard western diet).

In addition because the different demographic profile in China vs the USA and Europe, there are fewer old people, those most as risk from this virus, as a percent of the overall population of people who could potentially be infected.

You'll be in a better position than me to judge China, but my company does a lot of overseas work. 

We've recently had staff in China and the horror stories sounded appalling.

Admittedly, this is all second-hand information.  I can only go off what I've read and been told though.  I know there are good and bad examples in every culture and country.  My post was far too simplified and I was generalising points.  If you know China well, do you not think it's fair to assume they're less likely to be able to contain a pandemic when compared to the majority of western countries? 

[MisterA]

The markets have already reacted in a relatively small way, with 80k cases and 3k deaths. Nobody know what might happen, but just watch the news tonight. Maybe we should invest in face-masks and antibacterial hand-wash.

Anyway, is anybody in any doubt that the markets are reacting badly? This is just the start, but my portfolio has already taken quite a hit.
FTSE100 down 6.8% this week, worst drop since August 2011.

[Manchester]

The markets have already reacted in a relatively small way, with 80k cases and 3k deaths. Nobody know what might happen, but just watch the news tonight. Maybe we should invest in face-masks and antibacterial hand-wash.

Anyway, is anybody in any doubt that the markets are reacting badly? This is just the start, but my portfolio has already taken quite a hit.
FTSE100 down 6.8% this week, worst drop since August 2011.

That's really quite something.  about 2 weeks ago, my S&S ISA was at 13% interest for the YTD.  Today it's at 1.75% and I'm fully expecting that to drop further. 

As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I'm not close to retirement, so this is actually a good thing for me long term.  I can appreciate the fears looming for those within a couple of years of FIREing though.

[maizefolk]

Yes this seems rather ignorant and bigoted honestly. @Manchester

I’ve spent time living in China, the healthcare is within the range I’ve seen in the USA (not as good as the best in the US, but a lot better than the worst), contrary to your statement the people have good standards of hygiene and the average person appears healthier and more fit than in the USA (in part people people walk a lot more, eat on average a healthier diet than the standard western diet).

In addition because the different demographic profile in China vs the USA and Europe, there are fewer old people, those most as risk from this virus, as a percent of the overall population of people who could potentially be infected.

You'll be in a better position than me to judge China, but my company does a lot of overseas work. 

We've recently had staff in China and the horror stories sounded appalling.

Admittedly, this is all second-hand information.  I can only go off what I've read and been told though.  I know there are good and bad examples in every culture and country.  My post was far too simplified and I was generalising points.

Oh I have chinese horror stories, just not about any of kind of issues you mentioned. When I was over there the air quality was horrible (and this could play a difference in death rates since there are a lot more people walking around mild to moderately compromised respiratory systems even before they get sick).

But in particular I don't know where your statement about people in china having low standards of hygiene came from. That's the one made me really cringe.

If you know China well, do you not think it's fair to assume they're less likely to be able to contain a pandemic when compared to the majority of western countries?

Actually I would argue quite the opposite, for a rather dark reason.

China is able to order and enforce lockdowns over cities and provinces just like that. And they have the security and military apparatus to enforce those lockdowns.

They already have the infrastructure in place to trace the travel patterns of every cell phone user on a nationwide scale and no legal or logistical problems sending out police or the military to yank those people out of their apartments, jobs, or buses to lock them up in quarantine just because they traveled from a city where the virus was active, or cell phone location data show they rode a bus with someone to tested positive for the virus.

In western countries we don't have that kind of surveillance infrastructure and our governments have more checks and balances on what they are and are not allowed to do. Which make us much nicer places to live, but also means we're at a disadvantage relative to China when it comes trying to stop the spread of a novel disease.

[skip207]

FTSE taking a royal kicking over only a few days.  Its certainly going to get messy!

[vand]

Here’s a reality check.. we just had Q4 gdp figures which says the US grew at an amazingly unprecedented 2.1% in the year. The S&P in that time rose somewhat more than 2.1% even adjusting for inflation. Nasdaq ticks all the boxes require in the financial bubble checklist. This.. in the face of unprecedented peacetime fiscal (remember the US govt spends more than 4 dollars for every 3 dollars it brings in) and monetary (>10years of ZIRP) stimulus. If you overstimulate you eventually kill the patient.

Maybe the drop has something more to it than just Coronavirus, as convenient a pin as that may prove.  Maybe it’s just economic reality catching up with the retail investors who inevitably pile in at the top of a multi year peak.

[maizefolk]

Here’s a reality check.. we just had Q4 gdp figures which says the US grew at an amazingly unprecedented 2.1% in the year. The S&P in that time rose somewhat more than 2.1% even adjusting for inflation.

You realize businesses generate profit even in the absence of overall growth of the economy, don't you? At 0% growth, businesses still make profit.

Now in a long term zero growth world more of that profit would be returned in the form of dividends (or possibly share buybacks) instead of share price increases from growing the company because there would be less room for companies to grow.

Centuries ago when economic growth was usually somewhere between 0% and 0.3%, investments generally returned on the order of 3-5%/year.

But the expectation for total annual return of an investment in a business (or hundreds of businesses like the S&P) is always going to be greater than the speed at which the whole economy is expanding.

[MisterA]

Maybe the drop has something more to it than just Coronavirus, as convenient a pin as that may prove.  Maybe it’s just economic reality catching up with the retail investors who inevitably pile in at the top of a multi year peak.

You might be right, but according to the (usually very accurate) duck test, it's just due to the Corona virus.

[frugledoc]

Markets go up and down, violently and often unpredictably. Who cares? I’m happy to be given the chance to buy equities at a lower price given I don’t plan to sell them for > 20 years

It will soon be obvious that covid can’t be contained and at that point might as well carry on as normal.

For most of us , the covid will cause nothing more than a mild flu like illness.  Mustachians tend to be relatively healthy (better diet, less obesity, less cigarette smoking) so even better chance of being fine

[PhilB]

The odds are that failed attempts to contain the spread will do more economic damage than the virus itself, but you can't blame the authorities for trying.  My thoughts are with anyone with loved ones who are frail or immune suppressed.

In the meantime, I get the fun of watching my second big post-FIRE dip and I've only been FIREd 16 months!  Will it stay down low enough this time to let me dodge the lifetime allowance in 2021?  In the meantime it's quite nice I still have my little part time job, a decent pile of cash and not too many holidays booked this year.  Steady as she goes.

[vand]

Well FWIW I have moved about half of my available cash into the FTSE100 in the last few days. I like that 5% yield.

[itchyfeet]

PTF

[PhilB]

Well FWIW I have moved about half of my available cash into the FTSE100 in the last few days. I like that 5% yield.

I agree that the FTSE looks like one hell of a bargain at those prices, so I don't blame you in the slightest for grabbing it with both hands.  I'm in the fortunate position of having a big enough stash that I don't need to go looking for upsides,  I can afford to concentrate on keeping my inner Eeyore happy instead.  For me that's the route to maximum happiness.  Your route looks a much better bet for maximum wealth though.

[vand]

Well FWIW I have moved about half of my available cash into the FTSE100 in the last few days. I like that 5% yield.

I agree that the FTSE looks like one hell of a bargain at those prices, so I don't blame you in the slightest for grabbing it with both hands.  I'm in the fortunate position of having a big enough stash that I don't need to go looking for upsides,  I can afford to concentrate on keeping my inner Eeyore happy instead.  For me that's the route to maximum happiness.  Your route looks a much better bet for maximum wealth though.

Well I'm only grabbing it with one hand as I'm keeping half the cash still on the sidelines :)  I wouldn't be surprised if we are in for longer period of correction, as the markets barely paused for breath since they bottomed late 2018, well the US markets, anyhow.

I like the FTSE as a more value/defensive play right now. Valued on CAPE and Buffett indicator it looks outright cheap. I think that the dividend yield has only ever been higher during a couple of years during the GFC.

[ExitViaTheCashRamp]

Had a tangible effect locally for the kids at the primary school. They were due to go to a London science museum last week but so many parents came along panicked about the virus and loudly complained that the school gave in called the trip off.

 For people reading this forum, that is not a big deal. However I live in quite a deprived area, this was for some of those children their only chance of going to such a wonderful place - their parents/carers can/will not replace the opportunity... ever. The children may if they are lucky go with the school another year or perhaps as an adult - but giving up this fantastic trip for children who really have so little joy in their home lives over scaremongering and ignorant parents was for me the saddest thing I heard in ages.

 Yes - I do know the parents are ignorant, I had to read their complaints as part of my role as school governor. It was a clear herd response rather than rational thought. The long bus trip is far more a risk than catching the disease.

[skip207]

Some very crazy market swings today - brent down 30%, FTSE down almost 9% at this moment.

This will be a serious V !! Hopefully not an L !!

[Dicey]

[snip]

I am not entirely convinced that one of the problems is "healthcare is bad in China".  There is this report from Bloomberg "Among the fatal cases at the Wuhan hospital, death typically occurred about a week after admission to the ICU, the researchers said."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-23/coronavirus-patients-long-ventilator-stays-strain-hospitals

Is Chinese intensive care so much worse than elsewhere?

Where do you get the idea that hygiene standards are bad in China?  Plus, average lifespan for China is 76 years old with an average healthy life span of 68.7 - which according to Google is now higher than the average healthy life span in the USA.

Here's an article describing food safety in China:

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/16/world/china-food-safety/index.html

According to this site: https://www.ifitweremyhome.com/compare/GB/CN
We have an average life span of more than 5 years than the typical Chinese person.  We also (on average) have around 74% more money than the average Chinese person. 

In the context of COVID19, I don't think it's unfair to say it's more likely to spread in poorer regions where people are more likely to share public transport, live in more confined spaces, work in factories in close proximity to others etc. 

Perhaps the health care in China is good.  As you said, intensive care seems to be good in most places in the world.  They did literally build a new hospital in 1 week in Wuhan, but where did all the staff come from?  Are they properly trained?  Are they being overworked? 

I've read that 95% of Chinese people have health insurance and the care is relatively cheap in China, but this insurance typically only covers half the cost of care.

I don't understand the relevance of food hygiene issues?  Which are obviously there but is there any evidence of transmission of the virus through food?

I'm pretty sure that any public transport in the UK is easily crowded and dirty enough to create the conditions for transfer of the virus.

I think it is easy to have outdated views of China because it has changed so much so fast.

And last week another newly-built structure came crashing down in China, killing many.

[londonstache]

Some very crazy market swings today - brent down 30%, FTSE down almost 9% at this moment.

This will be a serious V !! Hopefully not an L !!

I've no idea where the bottom is (perhaps the disruption on supply chains isn't fully priced into the markets at the moment)  but I'm also aware of the effects of behavioural finance on my portfolio. Given the peaks we closed on this year it's possible that the FTSE may close 2020 lower than 2019 but that's an effect that I'd imagine to be short-lived on a relative timescale. I'm continuing to load up on discount Lifestrategy80 and carry on.

If I was closer to FIRE I'd still be tempted to stay the course and keep optionality in plans. We've all made hay since the recession on our investments and I'd think worst case scenario is we delay RE by 12-18 months. Market volatility is where I'm most pleased to be mustachian as unlike many of my friends and colleagues I've got ample provision for a rainy day.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

I just poked around on Wikipedia looking at how many people died from the really famous recent epidemics.

H5N1 ("bird flu") killed 455 people, or about 53% of people who got sick.  Hard to catch, but a coin flip to stay alive.  Most impacted countries, surprisingly, were Egpyt and Indonesia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mortality_from_H5N1#H5N1_cases_in_humans
MERS involved 527 deaths, most in Saudi Arabia.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome#Annual_summaries
SARS killed 774 people, or about 9.6% of those who caught it, mostly in China.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome#Epidemiology

All told, 1754 people died from H5N1, MERS or SARS.
COVID-19 has killed over 4,000 people - more than twice as many as all three prior epidemics put together.

Then people say it's like the flu.  Okay, so CDC estimates from Oct 2019 through Feb 2020 about 41 million people caught the flu, and about 36,000 died.  If those same people caught COVID-19 instead, somewhere around a million people would have died in the past 5 months (2% to 3.4% death rate).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

TL;DR:  COVID-19 has killed twice as many people as MERS/SARS/bird flu combined, and is 25x more deadly than the flu.

[MisterA]

Then people say it's like the flu.  Okay, so CDC estimates from Oct 2019 through Feb 2020 about 41 million people caught the flu, and about 36,000 died.  If those same people caught COVID-19 instead, somewhere around a million people would have died in the past 5 months (2% to 3.4% death rate).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

TL;DR:  COVID-19 has killed twice as many people as MERS/SARS/bird flu combined, and is 25x more deadly than the flu.

Yep, more or less right. That's kind of what I was saying 2 weeks ago:

Globally, swine flu killed 0.02% of those who caught it, with coronavirus it's 2%, 100 times greater. With a similar transmission rate, that's something like 20 million people.

Did you watch the news tonight? The genie is well and truly out of the bottle, the world is taking unprecedented measures to try to stop the spread. But it's in countries like Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan (at war). I'm not so sure containment will work as well in these places.

At the time, others were still in denial about the coronavirus being responsible for the market correction. I think that we've debunked that idea.

The cases in the UK are starting to rise at an alarming rate, 30% more cases per day? By this time next week, we could easily be in the 000's, not good, but almost unstoppable now.

Check out the growth in Italy, and how it shot up. We're currently at about 350 cases, look what happened in Italy when they had about that number.

The real mortality rate for coronavirus is still unknown, but will end up being less than 2-3.4%, probably more like 1-1.5%. Still a lot of people, and a dreadful situation.

[PhilB]

There was an interesting article on the BBC website about the challenges for the US with COVID-19.  In particular the bit towards the end where they talk about the fact that the lack of a welfare state is probably going to make it less likely for people to get tested and/or self isolate than in other countries which is likely to increase the spread. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51803890

[ExitViaTheCashRamp]

Can't help but think folks like this are a big part of the problem:  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-51887950

[cerat0n1a]

Can't help but think folks like this are a big part of the problem:  https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-51887950

Why do you think it's a problem? The government's Chief Scientific Officer isn't advising against it, and I'll take their advice over a local MP any day.

I'd feel at much less risk of catching/spreading an infection by running a half marathon than going to the supermarket or a cafe, tbh.

[ExitViaTheCashRamp]

Why do you think it's a problem? The government's Chief Scientific Officer isn't advising against it, and I'll take their advice over a local MP any day.

I'd feel at much less risk of catching/spreading an infection by running a half marathon than going to the supermarket or a cafe, tbh.

 As the article says:  "Our medical team is also providing additional resources to isolate and manage any patients presenting with symptoms at the event, in accordance with NHS clinical protocols."

 The whole issue is that their medical teams will have no idea who may have the virus since people are asymptomatic for some time. One runner coughs, quantity of germs fill the air - next load of runners breathe it in.

 Current plans in the news are banning mass gatherings from next week - along with a whole bunch of sporting events.

[MustacheAndaHalf]

In other countries, there was a one week gap between hitting 1,000 cases and reaching 5,000 cases of COVID-19.  UK just hit 1,000 cases (and maybe is already at 1,300 cases), so that suggests next weekend will see 5,000 cases.

On a somewhat related note, that's the point where Spain and France decided to go on lock down.  I don't know what they're drinking in Germany, but with more cases than France they're still not locking down.  Like that half marathon, denying the problem only helps the infections spread.

[skip207]

Roughly 30% drop since 1st Jan to today on the FTSE100.  Longer term the damage to businesses (including my own) could mean this event takes years to recover from.

I have started to come to the conclusion my 2022 FIRE date is probably up in smoke by now.

Work, I think my business will be bankrupt by this time next year at the latest and perhaps as soon as June.

Starting to think what on earth I can do after this, I don't really have any qualifications or skills other than what I do now. 

[never give up]

I’m sorry to hear that skip207. First and foremost please take care of yourself. The basics are important. Try to eat healthily and get some daily exercise.

Although a lot of our FIRE dates will likely be up in smoke the fact you had a date not that far away means you possess a level of resourcefulness that places you in a position where you can cope with this better than you think. I bet you have a lot more transferable skills than you realise.

There is a lot of uncertainty right now. It can get pretty dark during times of panic. The darkest hour is just before the dawn and all that. Please try to stay positive and look after yourself.

[Manchester]

Roughly 30% drop since 1st Jan to today on the FTSE100.  Longer term the damage to businesses (including my own) could mean this event takes years to recover from.

I have started to come to the conclusion my 2022 FIRE date is probably up in smoke by now.

Work, I think my business will be bankrupt by this time next year at the latest and perhaps as soon as June.

Starting to think what on earth I can do after this, I don't really have any qualifications or skills other than what I do now.

I know it seems like we're in line for a very long recession, but there's no way of telling.  There's a chance that a lot of the precariously positioned businesses could go out of business because of coronavirus.  This could lead to more stable companies taking their place within our index funds and leading to a swift rise and more stability long term.  We simply don't know.  You'll (hopefully) have the opportunity to invest into some incredibly undervalued businesses over the next year because Joe Bloggs and his mates aren't touching the market with a bargepole!

If you're only 2 years from FIRE, you probably have a lot of assets available to you that will strengthen any decision you make.  This outbreak has occurred and you've self-insured yourself by living within your means and building a stache, you could be one of those people living on the breadline with no savings and a job that looks futile, who'll have to leap at any degrading job that comes their way. 

Good luck and keep your head up! :)

[Jamese20]

nonbody can convince me shutting down a whole economy is a good idea and the longer the doors are closed the bigger the damage... anything after 6 weeks of lockdown is economic damage so large it will take god knows how long to recover

[Kwill]

I just found this thread today, and reading from the beginning to now reminded me of what a very long six weeks or so it has been. My goodness things have changed.

[PhilB]

I hope this link will work.  This cheered me up no end and I ended up singing it for half an hour while strimmering the drive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykieEE1j9eA&fbclid=IwAR002R3g1nVj5ip4W5QFuxnW51bDaiOkUrSm34tHRnWsIHPWwCBCHy5CLEg

[Kwill]

I hope this link will work.  This cheered me up no end and I ended up singing it for half an hour while strimmering the drive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ykieEE1j9eA&fbclid=IwAR002R3g1nVj5ip4W5QFuxnW51bDaiOkUrSm34tHRnWsIHPWwCBCHy5CLEg

Thank you for sharing it. That is cheerful.

[skip207]

Thanks chaps.  Financially like you say I am better off than many so I cant complain.
Its just a major, major kick in the balls to see whats happening.  The effort I have put in the last 10 years to my business has been nothing less than 100% every single day.  Then to see it basically get cut down like this is soul destroying.  I dont take vaccations, havnt been on one for over 11 years.  I am never off sick.  I pay all my staff a good wage and they get priority when it comes to money.  Now this.  The UK govt are not helping the situation either, complex grants and no sign of any of this money for months.  I think we are looking at folding the business tbh.  I cant see the point in flogging a dead horse.  Maybe try starting up again next year.  Who knows.