Author Topic: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition  (Read 9479 times)

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« on: March 19, 2020, 03:12:34 PM »
How has the CV bug affected your everyday life?

I find this is a surreal time to be alive, much more so than the financial crisis, which really just had a big impact on a small number of highly paid suits in high paying jobs. This is hitting the real economy - normal people, small businesses, and communities.

As with many others, the OH and I have are fortunate our employers have had not hesitation in implementing their BCPs and ordered everyone to work from home. We're lucky that we have jobs that we can do that.

Nursery will be shut from next week, but we have kept lit'un home all this week ahead of the curve.

***

We press on. Its heartening that communities come closer together at times like this. Perhaps, out of this crisis the world will move back from its trend of being an increasingly toxic and polarised place.. people will relearn the virtues of patience and tolerance, learn to listen to one another again and once again be able to find common ground to resolve our problems.

That would be my hope.

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #1 on: March 20, 2020, 03:47:28 AM »
Hey @vand

It's been pretty grim especially over the past week.  My sister and her baby are certain they've got the virus (they're both showing all the symptoms and have been in contact with someone who was formally diagnosed this week).  They're both alright, thankfully, but in complete lockdown.  I've been social distancing following the governments (somewhat shoddy) instructions, which means I've not been able to go to the gym, not seen my family members etc which is all quite depressing, I'm starting to get cabin fever in my house.

At work, we're already setup to work from home.  The vast majority of our turnover comes from public sector contracts, but we do sell into small businesses which I presume is going to take a hit.  We're already having customers ringing saying they are going to have to close their businesses as a result.  If this happens I'll personally have to make redundancies in my staff, which isn't something I'm overly excited about.

Further down the road, my wedding is booked for late July.  Not sure what the situation will be like then. 

And I'm really missing being able to watch sport!

Borgo Panigale

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #2 on: March 20, 2020, 04:18:37 AM »
From a work perspective, as a one-man band company, it just means I am on Skype, BlueJeans or Teams a lot more than face-to-face meetings, so no great shakes on the work front.  On the personal front I am at our home in Switzerland (our retirement home) and my wife is still in the UK, with our youngest son, who has just cut short his Erasmus year in Spain.  She is a teacher at a private school near a large teaching hospital so a lot of the parents are key workers.  She has volunteered to work over the Easter holidays and beyond  so I won't be seeing her for a while.  She has taken voluntary redundancy which will kick in at the end of June, but has a job offer from a large NGO in Geneva starting (currently) in August.

On a practical level, I have a few fixed price jobs and without travel and being sat on my own, I've completed them ahead of schedule so a positive cash flow effect for me.  In my world, as an engineering and supply chain consultant, there seems to be a lot of work around, but I am seeing projects being mothballed.  I have a project due to kick-off at a large company in North Italy, but I'm assuming it'll now be next year.

Although Switzerland was a little slow off the mark, most places like bars, restaurants and cinemas are closed down.  But food shops are open and well stocked, mainly because the Swiss went into France and Germany and ransacked their Discounters.  Also, apparently, the Swiss normally have the largest food stores (jointly with the Swedes) - something like 17 days worth of food.

From an investment point of view I had a quarterly pension payment that went in last weekend.  As a believer in time in the market, I let it go through so we'll see how that plays out.  I don't need this money for another 8-10 years so no real worries.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9140
  • Location: Avalon
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #3 on: March 20, 2020, 07:21:02 AM »
I'm seeing more people out walking their dogs on the beach during what would normally be the working week.

My birthday celebrations were limited to some cards and a delivery of chocolates through the post.  They are excellent chocolates though.

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2020, 08:05:42 AM »
Actually seeing the supermarket shelves nearly empty is making this feel much scarier than anything that happened during the financial crisis or any other time. The disruption is painfully visible, and we can all imagine how it would escalate if supplies were further disrupted.

This is the sort of thing you read about when reading about the collapse of a banana republic.


never give up

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8906
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2020, 09:06:40 AM »
I agree. My parents have both been ill for most of the year (not Coronavirus related) so I have been doing all of their shopping for them. As a result I am visiting supermarkets more frequently than when I was just in my own twice a week routine. I have dropped from being able to get 90-95% of items to 80% and today I was only able to obtain 45% of their shopping list. Maybe I caught a bad time or maybe their delivery was delayed or something but if this is anything to do with supply chains then it is really quite scary. I’m sure it is just people buying more than their normal amount but nonetheless the empty/half empty shelves are symbolic of the fear factor around.

highlandterrier

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 93
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #6 on: March 20, 2020, 09:56:07 AM »
The supermarket shortage should be temporary, there is only so much loo roll and rice that folk can buy before they realise they have enough to last a while. What irked me was everyone is now buying the cheapo Asda smart price food that I live on so having to buy brands! My wife is an NHS nurse with a history of cancer and anxiety so I do have greater concerns than having to purchase Heinz beans though, as do we all in our unique ways.

I do think that this experience will improve things long term for the world in general. The tendancy towards me-first political views should be tempered somewhat as it's realised that we are a community and everyone is important, plays their part and should be respected. Even now I notice people being nicer and more understanding towards each other both at work and outside and I think, and hope this will continue to grow.

Regarding finances during the 2001 crash there was the feeling things would never recover, this time was different and 2% returns were expected to be the new normal, Sept 11th had changed the world.

In 2008 the whole economic system came within a gnats bawhair of collapsing, things would never be the same, this time was different.

In 2020 we'll see many, many firms going out of business, an increase in unemployment, permanent low interest rates making economic stimulus difficult, and add in the virus and this time it's different. Well it's always different, but maybe, just maybe things will be OK.

never give up

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8906
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #7 on: March 20, 2020, 10:37:41 AM »
highlandterrier your post was the internet hug I just needed. Thanks! I hope you and your wife stay safe and well.

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #8 on: March 20, 2020, 11:38:53 AM »
I'm seeing more people out walking their dogs on the beach during what would normally be the working week.

My birthday celebrations were limited to some cards and a delivery of chocolates through the post.  They are excellent chocolates though.

Possibly belated, but,

Happy Birthday! :)

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 9140
  • Location: Avalon
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2020, 12:08:04 PM »
I'm seeing more people out walking their dogs on the beach during what would normally be the working week.

My birthday celebrations were limited to some cards and a delivery of chocolates through the post.  They are excellent chocolates though.

Possibly belated, but,

Happy Birthday! :)
Thank you!

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #10 on: March 20, 2020, 03:22:30 PM »
With Nurseries having closed and the little one home, its going to be saving up about £1600/month. Honestly though, I feel very sorry that this is the case.. all the Nursery carers will be without pay while this situation remains. This is just a snapshot of one small business that is threatened, and this is happening all over the country.

The response is being stepped up now, not just by the UK govt by everywhere. Tin foil hats at the ready.

highlandterrier

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 93
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #11 on: March 21, 2020, 01:45:09 AM »
highlandterrier your post was the internet hug I just needed. Thanks! I hope you and your wife stay safe and well.

Glad it hit the mark for you :), your journal is a constant source of positivity and light entertainment which people will appreciate now more than ever so keep up the good work !

never give up

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8906
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #12 on: March 21, 2020, 01:49:16 AM »
Oh crumbs thanks. That's a nice thing to say.

I've just been to my local supermarkets. Neither have bread, milk, any meat products and only a few tins of varied stuff. It's certainly the food situation that is getting to me the most. They are going to seriously need to restrict people in what they can buy if this keeps up.

highlandterrier

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 93
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #13 on: March 21, 2020, 02:06:55 AM »
Sorry to hear that, it's a scary, unsettling feeling as we take it all for granted. It will be short term though, for perspective I've got a shop being delivered today with just a few more substitutes than usual, so there is food in the system. How are your parents feeling about the situation ? Never know whether older folk will be concerned or blasé.

never give up

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8906
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #14 on: March 21, 2020, 02:15:21 AM »
I think as they haven't seen them first hand they probably aren't quite as concerned as they would be. However when I start to show up with increasingly fewer items they may become more concerned. I'm just going to try and visit the supermarket every hour and hope a delivery comes in at some point.

I'm also a bit worried for myself. I refused to buy loads of stuff I wouldn't use. In doing this though I only have two or three days worth of stuff. Although I'm not fussy if I can't buy things I normally do it is still a little worrying. You're correct though. I will never walk into a stocked supermarket again and not appreciate all that has gone into getting into that state.

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6820
  • Location: London, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #15 on: March 21, 2020, 02:23:20 AM »
I was listening to a supermarket Big Boss of some kind on the radio and he was making very reassuring noises about the robustness of the supply chain. He said the food etc is there, it's just a case of people buying different things at an increased rate so having to adjust their predicted demand, and teething troubles getting the right things to the right places. Food is still being produced and imported and is not being quarantined at the borders - it's a logistical issue which will shake down in the next week or two as people will have already stocked up and they will have recruited more workers and drivers and reorganised things to fit the new normal.

afterthedark

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 30
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #16 on: March 21, 2020, 05:19:52 AM »
I was listening to a supermarket Big Boss of some kind on the radio and he was making very reassuring noises about the robustness of the supply chain. He said the food etc is there, it's just a case of people buying different things at an increased rate so having to adjust their predicted demand, and teething troubles getting the right things to the right places. Food is still being produced and imported and is not being quarantined at the borders - it's a logistical issue which will shake down in the next week or two as people will have already stocked up and they will have recruited more workers and drivers and reorganised things to fit the new normal.

Thanks for that. I felt like that was probably the case but it is nice to get some confirmation. As well as people stocking up with extra and panic buying, there was a huge shift from many people eating out at least part of the time, who will now be eating more at home.

InterfaceLeader

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1959
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2020, 05:55:24 AM »
P is just a shelf-stacker, but he says the same thing, there's still food coming in every night, it's just that people are buying more and at different times. I went to Sainsbury this morning and there was lots of bread, milk, fresh produce etc. The only thing they were short of was beans, pasta, eggs, and paracetamol. But eggs they still had some boxes left, and there were lasagna sheets. I now have enough food to keep us going for 14 days should we need to self-isolate. I think things are calming down.




Playing with Fire UK

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3445
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #18 on: March 21, 2020, 09:59:24 AM »
P is just a shelf-stacker, ...

In these times that's like saying someone is "just" an action hero or "just" a fighter pilot. Thanks to P and MrKat and all the medics and truckers and everyone else holding the world together.

InterfaceLeader

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1959
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #19 on: March 21, 2020, 10:26:00 AM »
P is just a shelf-stacker, ...

In these times that's like saying someone is "just" an action hero or "just" a fighter pilot. Thanks to P and MrKat and all the medics and truckers and everyone else holding the world together.

Ahhhh, by 'just' I meant unlike supermarket Big Boss he does not have sight of the whole big picture. But of the small bit of the picture that he can see, the supplies are still there and flowing.

And of course, that the supplies are still flowing is entirely down to the hard work of people like him and MrKat. I always knew he was a hero though <3

 

katekat

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1455
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #20 on: March 21, 2020, 11:16:20 AM »
Literally tearing up at this gratitude for P and MrKat. I agree, there are an awful lot of undervalued people in the world keeping us all alive during this crisis.

Playing with Fire UK

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3445
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #21 on: March 22, 2020, 02:36:19 AM »
Yes, "just" is a tricky word and your meaning was very clear @InterfaceLeader - sorry to pick at your word choice, my intention was 100% gratitude.

ExitViaTheCashRamp

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 283
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #22 on: March 22, 2020, 03:58:04 AM »
Not directly thread related, but is anyone else shocked at the precarious position so many businesses seem to have been in ? The disruption so far has been really short in duration so far, the government announced a mind boggling amount of cash to business last week -- and are still having moans at them that the planned date of Monday for the start of loans is not soon enough. If their companies place of business had a myriad of other issues preventing trading for a bit, that they would have such immediate problems.

 The self-employed are complaining there is nothing for them - again, did they leave nothing for a rainy day ?

 I don't know peoples circumstances and am sure there are a not insignificant percentage that have had major unrelated issues knocking their finances sideways - but the scale of the tory handout is staggering. I doubt they would have done it if there was not good reason to think business as a whole had such little resilience.

 How the other half (other majority ?) of the country lives has been really eye opening.

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6820
  • Location: London, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #23 on: March 22, 2020, 08:06:21 AM »
I was listening to You and Yours on this the other day, and part of the problem is that people have business insurance but it's not paying out for the finest possible fine print - e.g. that coroavirus is a contagious disease but not an infectious one, or that it wasnt on the day the business ceased trading, or it wasn't specific ally named on their policy (!). Yes, many businesses do seem to be operating very close to the line, but they know that and insured against it and it's now not paying out.

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #24 on: March 22, 2020, 10:40:13 AM »
We all know that most individuals are no more than a couple of paycheques away from being in serious financial difficulty, so it doesn't surprise me in the least that a lot of small businesses operate on similarly thin ice. Businesses are run by individuals, after all.

In this sense, I believe the FI community has been preparing for this sort of shock for years and are as well placed as anyone in society to weather the storms ahead.

I have to say that it seems to me the mood has significantly darkened over the weekend as the implications of the full raft of measures is digested. Today the streets are virtually empty. There is a fast growing sense of mortal danger for all our loved one, and the inevitability that our way of life is changing.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 10:42:48 AM by vand »

KathrinS

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 263
  • Location: London
    • A Chat with Kat
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #25 on: March 22, 2020, 02:23:04 PM »
Self employed person here. As it stands, we can get about £74 per week from the government, whereas employees can get 80% of their salaries paid out. Doesn't seem right, but of course, it's harder to quantify a self employed person's salary since it can fluctuate a lot. Maybe this will be changed, as I think a lot of self employed people are upset. In my circles, it's not so much that everyone's in trouble right now, but this crisis could last up to a year and not a lot of people have reserves to deal with that.

The Pilates studio I work at closed on Friday, all classes suspended. Some clients have asked for online training, so as soon as the managers get themselves sorted, I may have 3-4 (of my 20+) classes back. Luckily, I'm also a German teacher and can transfer a lot of my language clients online. Since I spend less than half of my monthly earnings, I can probably still earn 50-80% of what I need to pay for rent, bills and food. Combined with my 6-month emergency fund, I'll be fine, even if the crisis takes a year.

That said, the long-term effects are a bit concerning as well. One of my regular clients has already lost his job, I'm sure others will, too. Will they still be able to pay for Pilates and German lessons after this is over?

On a more positive note, my family, who are back in Switzerland, are starting to take the self quarantine more seriously and hopefully staying in from now on. My mom and I are learning Spanish and we check in every day to see whether we've completed our Duolingo units. We have also both committed to doing our exercise, and I will be setting up a new blog. I've already learned so much about computers in the last 3 days - who knew Google Docs was so awesome?? This is a great opportunity to 'edit' my life, so that once it's over, I'll hopefully get to spend more time with family, have better working hours and maybe even an additional income stream. Maybe it's the same for others, as well?

TartanTallulah

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 592
  • Location: The Middle of Scenic Nowhere
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #26 on: March 23, 2020, 01:07:09 AM »
I work in primary care on a freelance basis, having made a feeble attempt to retire over a year ago. I expect to be asked to do roles other than my usual one as the incidence of COVID-19 increases. As acute respiratory illness forms a large part of my usual workload my actual work sessions last week were relatively quiet because people with acute respiratory illness were signposted to hospital or self-isolation.

The amount of work I do, assuming I remain well (which is my default assumption, though it does not mean I'm in denial or ignoring advice on avoiding transmission), will go up as colleagues self-isolate, for we're stretched as it is. I won't go to work for more than six hours a day because I'm too old to handle long work sessions, but it may be six hours every day for a few weeks. If one particular colleague or I are put out of action our service will have to be pared right back or the need to have a doctor on site at all times reviewed.

I keep a well stocked kitchen and freezer at normal times and had started to run my food stocks down with a view to refitting the kitchen in around 9 months (yes, THAT much non-perishable/frozen food) so haven't been impacted by supermarket shortages yet.

My main worry was that my frail elderly FiL was living with my husband and me. We were relocating him anyway because his health had improved massively since we took him in and he's a nasty old codger, but I was terrified that we'd bring the plague home and I'd have to give him hands on nursing care. The relocation has happened now. My husband and I are working at clearing his old house to be put on the market. It's quite surreal that we're less worried about the health hazards from cleaning the house of a hoarder (bookcases full of unread but organised and catalogued books, everywhere else filthy and stacked up with rubbish) than about a respiratory virus. If we have a lockdown before the end of this week, we'll have to shut down the house and leave it till the tip, the house clearers and the removers are operational again.

Two of my children will have their income maintained, one is a student who relies in part on working in a restaurant and will need more financial support for a while, and the other was living with us, between jobs, and is now stuck for a while. I'm sure he'll find ways to be useful locally.

Borgo Panigale

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #27 on: March 23, 2020, 04:36:47 AM »
Interestingly, I sent an invoice to one of my UK clients, a large food company, early last week.  I got an email this morning saying that in a move to support their smaller suppliers, they have reduced their normal payment terms from 60 days to as soon as possible.  The funds will be transferred later this week. 

Whilst this payment is not critical to me, I could imagine it would be a great help to some small forms who may be  struggling. 

So some firms are helping out.

Ducknald Don

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 48
  • Oxford, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #28 on: March 23, 2020, 08:08:13 AM »
The self-employed are complaining there is nothing for them - again, did they leave nothing for a rainy day ?

There is a perception going around that if you run your own business then you must be rolling in it. The reality is most of the self employed earn about the same as the employed. I saw some research recently that showed it's only the top decile that are better off and the bottom decile is much worse off. It seems most people are self employed because they don't want or can't get normal employment.

That is not to say they shouldn't save for a rainy day of course, just that they are no different from anyone else.

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #29 on: March 23, 2020, 08:42:12 AM »
The self-employed are complaining there is nothing for them - again, did they leave nothing for a rainy day ?

There is a perception going around that if you run your own business then you must be rolling in it. The reality is most of the self employed earn about the same as the employed. I saw some research recently that showed it's only the top decile that are better off and the bottom decile is much worse off. It seems most people are self employed because they don't want or can't get normal employment.

That is not to say they shouldn't save for a rainy day of course, just that they are no different from anyone else.

I'm slightly split over this.

A lot of self-employed are in reality just people who have chosen to go contracting (IR35 be damned) in order to earn higher wages and willing to put up with the uncertainty of being a contractor.  I have friends who do this and there's nothing wrong with it at all. I believe its wise to make hay while the sun is shining.

But now they're getting laid off and want to be treated with the same benefits as employees? A a contractor you should be smart enough to realise that your income is more variable than most and you'll likely be the first in line for the chop when the economy tanks.

But then a lot of contractors aren't high earners selling their soul to the devil either. They're workers in the gig economy or because contracting simply is the best solution for their complex work arrangements.

So I don't really know where I stand. It's really complicated.. these are unprecedented times.

Ducknald Don

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 48
  • Oxford, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #30 on: March 24, 2020, 07:39:25 AM »
A lot of self-employed are in reality just people who have chosen to go contracting (IR35 be damned) in order to earn higher wages and willing to put up with the uncertainty of being a contractor.  I have friends who do this and there's nothing wrong with it at all. I believe its wise to make hay while the sun is shining.

Technically they aren't self employed, self employment is different to working through a limited company. I don't expect they are going to get any handouts from the government soon.

ExitViaTheCashRamp

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 283
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #31 on: March 24, 2020, 11:02:32 AM »
Technically they aren't self employed, self employment is different to working through a limited company. I don't expect they are going to get any handouts from the government soon.

 This happens to be me, I am employed by my own LTD company - wife works as the company secretary. I could put her on furlough and claim 80% of her salary from the government. Hell, I could even be able to put both of us of furlough and claim double from the government. I won't of course, would be more or less war profiteering -- but I doubt everyone has such scruples.

 It is of course the problem of rushing through items, exploitation of the rules is harder to stop as is ensuring the people you want to get the money actually get it.

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6820
  • Location: London, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #32 on: March 24, 2020, 11:15:49 AM »
I'm of the mind that the government should be hurling money around right, left and centre and clawing it back through taxes if people "didn't deserve it" later. An instant payment of £1000 to everyone registered as self-employed with the proviso that it would be collected back later if you file a tax return earning more than £X next time. But that's why no one lets me be in charge of the country's money!

Ducknald Don

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 48
  • Oxford, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #33 on: March 24, 2020, 03:05:18 PM »
This happens to be me, I am employed by my own LTD company - wife works as the company secretary. I could put her on furlough and claim 80% of her salary from the government. Hell, I could even be able to put both of us of furlough and claim double from the government. I won't of course, would be more or less war profiteering -- but I doubt everyone has such scruples.


I assumed directors are excluded although I must admit it didn't occur to me to check.

Playing with Fire UK

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3445
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #34 on: March 25, 2020, 02:38:52 AM »
I'm of the mind that the government should be hurling money around right, left and centre and clawing it back through taxes if people "didn't deserve it" later. An instant payment of £1000 to everyone registered as self-employed with the proviso that it would be collected back later if you file a tax return earning more than £X next time. But that's why no one lets me be in charge of the country's money!

Agreed. If you accidentally give too much money it is just money, if you don't give enough money you are cutting off someone's food, or forcing a sick/vulnerable delivery person to work. Even if a small business is doing well generally, the extra cash buffer could be useful right now.

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6820
  • Location: London, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #35 on: March 25, 2020, 03:13:38 AM »
And I speak as a self-employed person who currently "doesn't deserve it" (on statutory maternity allowance). Providing you don't try to surprise snatch it back all at once, people who "don't deserve it" can either spend it now and pay it back in installments or just put it in a separate account and not touch it. We're used to paying our own taxes and keeping money aside for that so it shouldn't be a problem.

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #36 on: March 25, 2020, 04:02:53 AM »
If printing more money is the answer then every socialist banana republic would be prosperous and well run countries, but they're not.

Handing out money, while politically admirable, will cause its own problem, because money is ultimately just a claim on real wealth - goods and services - and if real economy has ground to a halt and stopped producing goods and services, then ultimately all that new money is just going to be inflationary.

Johnson, Sunak & the BoE are ultimately smart enough to know this. They are gambling that the liquidity injection will preserve as many businesses as possible and therefore the economy's productive capacity, even if we operate well below full capacity for the time being. 

This is a very dangerous game of chicken. At some point your capacity to expand the national debt is exhausted, and then you are in big, big trouble when no one else will lend to you at reasonable rates.

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6820
  • Location: London, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #37 on: March 25, 2020, 04:40:31 AM »
It's one thing to not hand out any money. Quite another to say "you, you and you get money, but not you because you have had the gall to try to be entrepreneurial". If money is being handed out, everyone should get some. No one should be excluded just because they are an employee of a company of one.

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #38 on: March 25, 2020, 07:27:37 AM »
I presume whatever self-employed people are offered will still be at quite a cost to the majority of our SE population.  My reason being that most SE people I know only declare a certain amount of their takings.  I'd argue that less than 50% of their true takings are put through the books.  The outstanding dark figure will be impossible to claim.  So people (like certain friends I have) that are used to taking £5k a month in cash, might find themselves only able to claim 80% of the £1k they actually declare if the government offers them something similar to normal workers, which is a somewhat ambitious idea at this point.

I suppose it's the result of playing with fire and not declaring full income.  Perhaps this will trigger a change in our economy where we reduce our reliance on cash and move towards a more audited, electronic future.

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6820
  • Location: London, UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #39 on: March 26, 2020, 02:15:32 AM »
Oh, let me get out my tiny violin. Serves them right! They can support themselves on the money they should have paid in taxes all these years...! Will they change their ways in the future, I wonder?

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #40 on: March 26, 2020, 03:06:18 AM »
400,000k + NHS volunteers shows how many good people there in our country.

Don't forget tonight:




Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #41 on: March 26, 2020, 04:06:14 AM »
Oh, let me get out my tiny violin. Serves them right! They can support themselves on the money they should have paid in taxes all these years...! Will they change their ways in the future, I wonder?

They should do, but won't.

PhilB

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6936
  • Age: 59
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #42 on: March 26, 2020, 04:54:06 AM »
Oh, let me get out my tiny violin. Serves them right! They can support themselves on the money they should have paid in taxes all these years...! Will they change their ways in the future, I wonder?

They should do, but won't.

I have slightly more sympathy for those who did put everything through the books, but via a limited company and mainly paid themselves via dividends. 

As for those who did things off book though, I just want some of them to complain so they can be done for tax fraud.

ExitViaTheCashRamp

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 283
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #43 on: March 26, 2020, 12:26:21 PM »
Was listening to the radio earlier, lots of complaints about the self employed hand out. There was a surprising number of self employed businesses that really took off this year and have much higher profits, they say it should be based on that year alone. 

TacheTastic

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 88
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #44 on: March 26, 2020, 02:47:56 PM »
I am a mental health nurse working in a rehab nursing home run by a charity. The last week has been interesting times, to be sure.

We usually get our food supplied by Tesco delivery. Hah, yeah, I am sure you can all guess how that has been.

Our residents are all finding new and interesting ways to show their emotions.

A few of our staff are either in physically vulnerable groups or have relatives who are, so that's added some stress. Probably 50% of our residents are also physically vulnerable. Approximately 85% have cavalier attitudes to personal hygiene and/or infection control.

I have to isolate as much as possible to protect the world at large from the germ factories I work with. Aside from buying petrol and catfood, I have seen one non-work human being face to face for 90 minutes since Saturday 14th.

Emotionally, I cried with anger in the car on the way home at the sheer number of people still out on the streets on Monday. I am not sleeping too well with concern for my residents, but on my day off today I have had a nap and am starting to feel a little less strung-out.

On the other hand, having no social life has meant I am saving loads of money this month.

Wash your hands people.

ExitViaTheCashRamp

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 283
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #45 on: March 26, 2020, 02:50:06 PM »
Thank you for doing what you do TacheTastic.

vand

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 2676
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #46 on: March 27, 2020, 05:49:17 AM »
Yes, thank you to TashTastic and all of our heroes on the front line.

Now Boris is confirmed Covid-19 positive!

FWIW I'm now pretty convinced that the true number of cases in the general population is many magnitudes higher than the official cases (11k, or whatever). I reckon it could easily be in the 5-10 million range (say 10-20% of the general population), but most cases are mild or asymptomatic. And I think that is a good thing - it will burn out before much longer.

Pretty sure I have had it TBH, as I have the symptoms (but feel fine in general).

ExitViaTheCashRamp

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 283
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #47 on: March 28, 2020, 12:15:16 PM »
Can't help but think recently how fortunate we are this happened when it did. Consider a couple of alternative timelines:

 Virus hits in 2021:

 Brexit talks break down, the trade deal completed by Borris is the most bare bones possible (Brexit is done ! Hurrah !) by March shortages of good is apparent in the supermarkets, there is food about by customs issues hold up shipments of food and other vital materials at Dover. Tory MPs have been grumbling loudly at how poorly everything has been handled and Borris's honeymoon period is clearly over. The debacle has given both the Scottish Nationalists and Northern Ireland separatists everything they need to quit the UK, before a popular vote can really be called the virus hits in March - conspiracy theorists abound ! After the virus hits the outer regions, the separatists have cameras rolling day and night waiting for the virus first local victims - their subsequent deaths are laid at the door of an uncaring, Tory government.


 After Corbyn and McDonnell win the most surprising result of all recent elections, they quickly get to work nationalising industries and confiscating wealth from British companies  (to be held in trust for the workers of course by nominated union representatives), high net worth individuals find rapidly raised income tax and wealth taxes. Companies, innovators and wealth creators flee the country as they did the last time when taxes on them went so high so capital controls and mandated prices are put in place. Whilst there is a run on the pound to just 90p per $ and the near future looks bad for the markets, wealth is redistributed and social safety nets are strengthend. The 2nd Brexit referendum takes place and to no ones surprise the nation votes leave again Corybn having lead the charge for the leave campaign. Keen to get this over and done and not to be killed by it the way Theresa May was, we are out by Christmas. Before the new socialist paradise takes shape, the virus hits at the highest point of pain for the countries reorganistation.

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 402
  • Location: UK
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #48 on: March 30, 2020, 06:57:32 AM »
I am a mental health nurse working in a rehab nursing home run by a charity. The last week has been interesting times, to be sure.

We usually get our food supplied by Tesco delivery. Hah, yeah, I am sure you can all guess how that has been.

Our residents are all finding new and interesting ways to show their emotions.

A few of our staff are either in physically vulnerable groups or have relatives who are, so that's added some stress. Probably 50% of our residents are also physically vulnerable. Approximately 85% have cavalier attitudes to personal hygiene and/or infection control.

I have to isolate as much as possible to protect the world at large from the germ factories I work with. Aside from buying petrol and catfood, I have seen one non-work human being face to face for 90 minutes since Saturday 14th.

Emotionally, I cried with anger in the car on the way home at the sheer number of people still out on the streets on Monday. I am not sleeping too well with concern for my residents, but on my day off today I have had a nap and am starting to feel a little less strung-out.

On the other hand, having no social life has meant I am saving loads of money this month.

Wash your hands people.

In a cruel way, it's ironic that those tasked with supporting our citizens suffering from mental health problems have to deal with such a strain to their own mental wellbeing. 

I really appreciate your work.  Without people like yourself, the world would be a much worse place.

Borgo Panigale

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: Coronavirus fallout - UK edition
« Reply #49 on: April 15, 2020, 08:59:13 AM »
I suspect the longer-term impact of covid-19 on the UK FIRE community will be on how Mr Sunak intends to recoup the costs of his various bail-out schemes.  The UK economy isn't strong enough to simply let surpluses eat away over time as Germany, NL and Switzerland can. 

Given a likely political desire to minimise increases in direct taxation, there has been a fair bit of speculation that the first target will be reducing allowances (to make sure we are all seen to be "in this together").  There was a guy from the Economist on the radio and his views were that pensions would be a (relatively) soft target.  He called out:
* Abolition of the Higher rate tax relief on pension contributions
* The tax free lump-sum - abolish totally, cap it (value or percentage) or introduce a tax rate on it.
* The triple lock - remove the 2.5% guarantee

I think that would make a lot of sense as it costs limited political capital (no opposition), whilst generating a fair wodge of cash to the Exchequer going forwards.  The reform of HR tax-relief has already been on the Tories agenda under Osborne, this may force their hand.  If my FIRE plans were based on the current pensions tax regime, I'd be hitting those spreadsheets.

As I'm approaching LTA in the UK (due mainly to a Public Sector Pension Scheme, I left 25 years ago) I may just throw my SIPP  into drawdown and pocket the TFLS,