Author Topic: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE  (Read 19184 times)

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6757
  • Location: London, UK
[UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« on: July 28, 2019, 04:08:02 AM »
Assuming BoJo does hammer through a no-deal Brexit, will that affect your FIRE plans? I'm wondering if it might end up being positive for us in the long term, if we can buy UK stocks at a 'discounted' rate for several years and then think about retiring once the economy has recovered.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8908
  • Location: Avalon
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #1 on: July 28, 2019, 04:43:12 AM »
What gives you confidence that there will be a recovery and what timescale are you looking at?

Economic prosperity on these islands has depended on trading abroad for hundreds of years.  A no-deal Brexit means the UK will be on the outside of the European Economic Area with only third world levels of access to its markets.  Since the Brexit referendum the EU has concluded further trade agreements with Canada, much of South America and Africa and has recently started negotiating with Australia and New Zealand: we will be on the outside of all those agreements too.  And once we are out we will be easy pickings for every other nation on earth.

I see fuck all reason for optimism in either the short or long term.

never give up

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7906
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #2 on: July 28, 2019, 05:06:38 AM »
I don’t think no deal will happen but given the assumption it does I do think it raises the question of the impact of home bias. Someone invested by market capitalisation will only have about 5 or 6% in the UK while someone with home bias may have between 10 and 100%. In 30 years time I would think these portfolios would look very different but how and which way I don’t know, but I’m glad we have the products available to invest globally.

I have only a little home bias myself so am not sure investment wise there would be too much impact in the longer term. I think the bigger concern is the income side rather than the investment side. How many well paid jobs will the economy lose and how much will the economy shrink?  It’s all very worrying really.

Slow road to freedom

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 288
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #3 on: July 28, 2019, 09:50:36 AM »
As we regularly read, ‘the top is in’ - there is a natural fear that we buy in an expensive market, thus if there is a perceived prospect of it falling, we might benefit from enhanced returns. I can’t recall the provenance, but I have read an article from a link in this forum which tells the story of someone who had lousy timing (buying at market highs), but still got a decent return - by being in the market.

I try to switch off my brain and continue to invest regardless. As NGU points out, having a little less home bias (I tend towards Vanguard 60% equity trackers now) should smooth out some of the bumps.

If I think deeply about Brexit / BoJo or any other relatively short-term noise, yes, of course it is of concern. But shouting at the telly solves nothing. And I do wonder if over the next generation either climate change, AI technology or both will have a bigger impact on our island’s economy (for better or worse)...

... Just keep investing (in a diversified manner) ...

Kookaburra Risotto

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 29
  • Age: 43
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #4 on: July 28, 2019, 09:53:47 AM »
I'm quite honestly just trying to keep shovelling money into S&S and not think about it... I *almost* believe that a no deal can't really happen... *almost*.

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 405
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #5 on: July 29, 2019, 03:46:11 AM »
I'm not buying into the hysteria surround Brexit.  I'm not really interested in divulging in politics because everyone has their own.

All I would say is that the markets are high, they already know about Brexit and the 'risk' of a no-deal Brexit.  We cannot predict what will happen with our investments and we should make no attempt too.  There are significantly bigger risks to the UK than Brexit including global warming, which gets nothing like the attention it deserves.

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 743
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #6 on: July 29, 2019, 04:36:52 AM »
I'm not buying into the hysteria surround Brexit.  I'm not really interested in divulging in politics because everyone has their own.

All I would say is that the markets are high, they already know about Brexit and the 'risk' of a no-deal Brexit.  We cannot predict what will happen with our investments and we should make no attempt too.  There are significantly bigger risks to the UK than Brexit including global warming, which gets nothing like the attention it deserves.

Biggest risk is corbyn

PropJoe

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 50
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #7 on: July 29, 2019, 08:30:12 AM »
Whilst I think Brexit is very bad for our country, I think it will likely be pretty good for our investments.
All of those overseas trackers (priced in USD etc) get an extra boost from the weak pound.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8908
  • Location: Avalon
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #8 on: July 29, 2019, 08:38:44 AM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 743
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #9 on: July 29, 2019, 09:46:18 AM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

Can’t see NI or the republic agreeing to a hard border so it will need to be something else

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8908
  • Location: Avalon
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2019, 09:55:18 AM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

Can’t see NI or the republic agreeing to a hard border so it will need to be something else
Which would mean that "no deal" is off the table?

Kwill

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2384
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #11 on: July 29, 2019, 02:09:53 PM »
Thank you for starting the discussion, SLTD. As an outsider who's nevertheless caught up in it all by virtue of living and working here, I worry about things but don't feel I have much right to an opinion on the situation. I'm cautiously optimistic that things will be alright in five years' time, even if it's all a bit rocky and uncertain at present.

For monthly investments within my UK pension plan, I set 25% UK equities and 75% world equities. I hope that gives me a bit of balance while still being somewhat tied to the local situation. My home value will also be tied to the UK.

Legsofsteel

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 50
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #12 on: July 29, 2019, 02:36:01 PM »
What gives you confidence that there will be a recovery and what timescale are you looking at?

Economic prosperity on these islands has depended on trading abroad for hundreds of years.  A no-deal Brexit means the UK will be on the outside of the European Economic Area with only third world levels of access to its markets.  Since the Brexit referendum the EU has concluded further trade agreements with Canada, much of South America and Africa and has recently started negotiating with Australia and New Zealand: we will be on the outside of all those agreements too.  And once we are out we will be easy pickings for every other nation on earth.

I see fuck all reason for optimism in either the short or long term.

Sums it up well. Unfortunately.

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 743
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #13 on: July 29, 2019, 02:58:52 PM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

Can’t see NI or the republic agreeing to a hard border so it will need to be something else
Which would mean that "no deal" is off the table?

Hopefully.  But if there was no deal I still think both ROI and NI would refuse a hard border so another solution will need to be found.  I have no idea what that is.




former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8908
  • Location: Avalon
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2019, 04:08:49 AM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

Can’t see NI or the republic agreeing to a hard border so it will need to be something else
Which would mean that "no deal" is off the table?

Hopefully.  But if there was no deal I still think both ROI and NI would refuse a hard border so another solution will need to be found.  I have no idea what that is.

The thing is that what happens at the border is not within the control of ROI.  ROI are part of the EU and matters within the competence of the EU have to be dealt with as an EU issue, agreed by the 27, rather than by ROI on its own.  Matters within EU competence are everything to do with the free movement of goods, a lot of things to do with the free movement of services and capital and everything to do with the free movement of people.  The only solution to the Irish border is an EU solution, and if there is no solution agreeable to the EU there is a hard border, whatever the Irish want.  Good luck with that, Boris.

dashuk

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 362
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #15 on: July 30, 2019, 05:42:29 AM »
I see fuck all reason for optimism in either the short or long term.

This.

TBH, I'm considerably less concerned about the effect on our (reasonably diversified) personal finances than I am about:

 - The country sliding into actual Fascism.
 - Wasting time dealing with this shit rather than acting on climate change.

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3245
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #16 on: July 30, 2019, 08:02:42 AM »
You Brits are going to love all that cheap chlorinated chicken from the states.  Also your month off for vacations will soon become 2 weeks, you got to keep competitive in the world.  NHS new and improved, now with co-pays, someone has to pay for those US pharma prices.  You guys are so screwed.

poppydog

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Location: Scotland, UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #17 on: July 30, 2019, 09:13:28 AM »
Second guessing macro economic or political events is a mugs game.  Stick your fingers in your ears, switch off the business news and continue with your investment plan.

poppydog

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Location: Scotland, UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2019, 09:17:05 AM »
You Brits are going to love all that cheap chlorinated chicken from the states.  Also your month off for vacations will soon become 2 weeks, you got to keep competitive in the world.  NHS new and improved, now with co-pays, someone has to pay for those US pharma prices.  You guys are so screwed.

We’re going to be fine.  We have one of the world’s largest economies, a highly educated workforce, a corruption-free system of local and central government and a people of endless ingenuity and entrepreneurship. Betting against us is a very high risk strategy.

SpreadsheetMan

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 429
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2019, 10:24:37 AM »
Second guessing macro economic or political events is a mugs game.  Stick your fingers in your ears, switch off the business news and continue with your investment plan.
I agree. My opinions are irrelevant on an issue of this scale, and I can't usefully guess what will happen so all I can do is carry on with my plans.

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8930
  • Age: 2020
  • Location: Bay Area at heart living in the PNW
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #20 on: July 30, 2019, 12:01:09 PM »
Posting to follow. I sort of expect this thread to make guesses that are both off and some which are prescient, like the thread on “what the hell will happen now that Trump has been elected”.

I’m not personally impacted now though I hope to convince my husband to move to England as our long-term plan. If the UK economy tanks then I should be able to buy more with my investments in US $, maybe? In your shoes I would just be making sure that my investments are well diversified globally.

vand

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2346
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #21 on: July 30, 2019, 12:11:26 PM »
Buy more gold, innit.
What do you mean you don't already have any?

ysette9

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8930
  • Age: 2020
  • Location: Bay Area at heart living in the PNW
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #22 on: July 30, 2019, 02:14:03 PM »
Buy more gold, innit.
What do you mean you don't already have any?
Don’t be silly.
Beanie babies and bitcoin all the way!

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 405
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #23 on: July 31, 2019, 03:51:21 AM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

- No visable border (fences etc)
- Allow businesses to create 'shipping plans' online which can be paid for online at the point of creation.  This would cover any WTO tariffs.  Can be enforced using heavy fines for non-compliant companies (after a grace period) - could easily be tracked using ANPR cameras and stopping unregistered transit vehicles
- Enforce checks on house purchases, benefits, school applications and job applications.  Fewer restrictions for Irish nationals compared to other EU nations (please note I know this wouldn't help illegal immigration, which isn't a huge issue, but I feel that the majority who voted for brexit did so to curb 'legal immigration' from other EU states).

Sweden and Finland have a seemless border with Norway.  There's no reason why Ireland couldn't be the same.  The only sticking point I see is the EU's stobborness and resentment towards one of it's largest trading partners, combined with our own poor leadership and lack of majority in the government.

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #24 on: July 31, 2019, 04:04:40 AM »
Sweden and Finland have a seemless border with Norway.  There's no reason why Ireland couldn't be the same.  The only sticking point I see is the EU's stobborness and resentment towards one of it's largest trading partners, combined with our own poor leadership and lack of majority in the government.

Norway is, as Lichtenstein and Iceland, part of the EEC which gives access to the internal market, free movement of labor and all the bells and whistles. That's something very different from what the UK will be facing. Norway is for most practical purposes an EU member without voting rights. We generally accept all EU standards, rules etc. BTW none of the EEC countries want the UK to be a member of it as the interests differ vastly and UK will be several times bigger than the 3 others combined.

So yes, there are a lot of reasons why UK and Ireland cannot be the same.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 04:16:05 AM by habaneroNorway »

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 405
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #25 on: July 31, 2019, 04:11:35 AM »
You Brits are going to love all that cheap chlorinated chicken from the states.

I have free choice and will choose to continue eating free range chicken.  Shockingly, we have a government who could impose minimum standards for food that match the current regulations we have inplace.

Quote
Also your month off for vacations will soon become 2 weeks, you got to keep competitive in the world.

It's a good job we'll have a reduced influx of EU workers who're willing to work for less.  Our jobs market will remain competitive and the British people aren't easily rolled over when it comes to our rights. 

Quote
NHS new and improved, now with co-pays, someone has to pay for those US pharma prices. 

Whats wrong with the current, British 'pharma prices' we're currently paying?  I'm sure they'll do just fine.


Quote
You guys are so screwed.

As a nation we've survived world wars, recessions, depressions, invasions, civil wars.  We have thousands of years of history, tradition, relationships with other countries.  Our residents have one of the highest qualities of life of any nation on earth.  We're a highly trained, highly skilled, motivated work force.  Open for business, willing to trade world-wide and with our own interests at heart.

Just because something is different doesn't mean it will be worse.  Even if it is, the Brits ingenuity will continue in abundance.  We will adapt to any changes and move forward - but thanks for your concern.

former player

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 8908
  • Location: Avalon
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #26 on: July 31, 2019, 04:24:28 AM »
You Brits are going to love all that cheap chlorinated chicken from the states.

I have free choice and will choose to continue eating free range chicken.  Shockingly, we have a government who could impose minimum standards for food that match the current regulations we have inplace.
 

Quote
NHS new and improved, now with co-pays, someone has to pay for those US pharma prices. 

Whats wrong with the current, British 'pharma prices' we're currently paying?  I'm sure they'll do just fine..[/quote]


The problem is that if we want a trade agreement with the USA the USA will say "you can only have this trade agreement if you agree to take our [chlorinated] chicken and agree to pay full price for pharmaceuticals.  And if you are not prepared to accept those conditions then you don't get a trade agreement."

So yes, the UK can set standards for its own production, and make sure that UK chicken is humanely produced and naturally salmonella free rather than being produced in horrendous factory farm conditions and doused with chlorine to destroy the resulting pathogens, but it can't stop the cheap stuff from coming in from the USA and undercutting local production.  And the USA can say "feel free to negotiate down prices the NHS pays for pharmaceuticals from the UK and the rest of the world but if you want anything from the USA you are going to have to pay full price for it."

This idea of "we leave the UK and we are free" is a complete myth.  Freedom is useless without power, and when we leave the EU we lose a lot of power.

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3245
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #27 on: July 31, 2019, 05:37:31 AM »
You Brits are going to love all that cheap chlorinated chicken from the states.

I have free choice and will choose to continue eating free range chicken.  Shockingly, we have a government who could impose minimum standards for food that match the current regulations we have inplace.

Quote
Also your month off for vacations will soon become 2 weeks, you got to keep competitive in the world.

It's a good job we'll have a reduced influx of EU workers who're willing to work for less.  Our jobs market will remain competitive and the British people aren't easily rolled over when it comes to our rights. 

Quote
NHS new and improved, now with co-pays, someone has to pay for those US pharma prices. 

Whats wrong with the current, British 'pharma prices' we're currently paying?  I'm sure they'll do just fine.


Quote
You guys are so screwed.

As a nation we've survived world wars, recessions, depressions, invasions, civil wars.  We have thousands of years of history, tradition, relationships with other countries.  Our residents have one of the highest qualities of life of any nation on earth.  We're a highly trained, highly skilled, motivated work force.  Open for business, willing to trade world-wide and with our own interests at heart.

Just because something is different doesn't mean it will be worse.  Even if it is, the Brits ingenuity will continue in abundance.  We will adapt to any changes and move forward - but thanks for your concern.
Resting in your past glory I see.  If it wasn't for the Americans you all would be speaking German right now.  I don't know where you get this notion that you all are in some kind of preferred negotiating position with the US or the EU.  Announce you are leaving the EU and wonder why the EU isn't bending over backwards to help you.  Total delusion.  You are the ones who will be hurt massively, not the EU, relatively speaking.  Since you all will be effectively cut off from world trade post Brexit, you are in the weakest possible position to negotiate anything with anyone.  Trump has already effectively gotten rid of your Ambassador, because he didn't like him.  Instead of sticking up for him the government let him leave since you need a trade deal and don't want to upset the orange man.  BoJo is quiet was a mouse on this.  Pathetic and weak.


SpreadsheetMan

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 429
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #28 on: July 31, 2019, 05:50:27 AM »
....
This idea of "we leave the UK and we are free" is a complete myth.  Freedom is useless without power, and when we leave the EU we lose a lot of power.
That is the key point that I see - I don't understand how anyone thinks we can negotiate trade deals to our advantage from such a weak position.

We are completely wasting our time attempting to deal with the USA, we have nothing to offer to gain leverage if we aren't an easy bridge into the EU for either goods and services.

gaja

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1681
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #29 on: July 31, 2019, 06:13:41 AM »
I have no doubt that the UK will pull through. They always have. And after spending a few summers on road trips all over the UK, I'm impressed by the ever present frugality. In many small towns it is easier to find second hand shops than ordinary clothing stores.

Sweden and Finland have a seemless border with Norway.  There's no reason why Ireland couldn't be the same.  The only sticking point I see is the EU's stobborness and resentment towards one of it's largest trading partners, combined with our own poor leadership and lack of majority in the government.

Norway is, as Lichtenstein and Iceland, part of the EEC which gives access to the internal market, free movement of labor and all the bells and whistles. That's something very different from what the UK will be facing. Norway is for most practical purposes an EU member without voting rights. We generally accept all EU standards, rules etc. BTW none of the EEC countries want the UK to be a member of it as the interests differ vastly and UK will be several times bigger than the 3 others combined.

So yes, there are a lot of reasons why UK and Ireland cannot be the same.

Norway is part of Schengen. That makes the border issues easier. Also, we haven't been at war with Sweden for over a 100 years. And when it last started building up to war, the people in the border region were kept out of it because they couldn't be trusted to fight eachother. That is very different from the Irish border.

habanero

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1145
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #30 on: July 31, 2019, 06:20:12 AM »

Norway is part of Schengen. That makes the border issues easier. Also, we haven't been at war with Sweden for over a 100 years. And when it last started building up to war, the people in the border region were kept out of it because they couldn't be trusted to fight eachother. That is very different from the Irish border.

Schengen is predominantly for travel - no passport control inside the area and common rules for visas (i.e. a Schengen visa is valid for the entire area). Movement of goods, services and labor is a completely different and much more complicated beast. The inner market in the EU is also bigger than the Schengen area (UK being the most obvious example).

Passport-free travel between Norway, Sweden and Denmark is also much older than the Schengen agreement (it's from the 1950s). This old agreement also included taking up residence, btw, not just holiday travel.

never give up

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7906
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #31 on: July 31, 2019, 06:35:12 AM »
Jim555 - you realise we are allies right? This thread is about FIRE plans for people living in the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit. The thread isn’t titled “have a pop at a nation you don’t like”. It should be possible to rationally talk about this topic without trying to deliberately wind people up.

Apologies for those that don’t know the reference but Brexit is becoming more and more like Game of Thrones for me. While the powers that be are squabbling over the throne (Brexit) they are ignoring the bigger threats that are looming. Essentially climate change and automation. All domestic policy is on hold too. There don’t appear to be any dragons or an undead army with Brexit yet though. So there is a positive.

I don’t have kids but if I did I would be ensuring frugality and a wide skill set were taught and learned. For a variety of reasons (not just a no deal Brexit) if ever there was a generation that will benefit from being frugal and not getting used to consumerism, it may be those being born now.

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3245
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #32 on: July 31, 2019, 06:57:01 AM »
Jim555 - you realise we are allies right? This thread is about FIRE plans for people living in the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit. The thread isn’t titled “have a pop at a nation you don’t like”. It should be possible to rationally talk about this topic without trying to deliberately wind people up.
I actually care about the UK and get upset when I see the news about Brexit, since I think it is a massive mistake that is totally avoidable.  My mother was a teen in Britain in WWII and came over after the war, and I hold a British passport.  My EU free movement rights are being destroyed and it greatly reduces the number of countries I can move to for retirement.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2019, 07:05:33 AM by jim555 »

Imma

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3193
  • Location: Europe
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #33 on: July 31, 2019, 07:04:15 AM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

- No visable border (fences etc)
- Allow businesses to create 'shipping plans' online which can be paid for online at the point of creation.  This would cover any WTO tariffs.  Can be enforced using heavy fines for non-compliant companies (after a grace period) - could easily be tracked using ANPR cameras and stopping unregistered transit vehicles
- Enforce checks on house purchases, benefits, school applications and job applications.  Fewer restrictions for Irish nationals compared to other EU nations (please note I know this wouldn't help illegal immigration, which isn't a huge issue, but I feel that the majority who voted for brexit did so to curb 'legal immigration' from other EU states).

Sweden and Finland have a seemless border with Norway.  There's no reason why Ireland couldn't be the same.  The only sticking point I see is the EU's stobborness and resentment towards one of it's largest trading partners, combined with our own poor leadership and lack of majority in the government.

I was very recently in the UK and of course Brexit and BoJo were all everyone talked about. i'm also pretty familiar with Ireland and it's politics.

In all honesty, the average Englishman/woman seems to have no idea how their country and it's current policy is being perceived in Ireland. The Conservative Party is currently in the grip of some 19th century imperialist toffs who never even considered the Irish border when they campaigned for Brexit. The same kind of people Irish people fought very hard to get rid of. The current PM has actually threatened Ireland with direct rule, apparantly unaware how sensitive that issue is.

The government of Ireland has absolutely 0 incentive to work with the UK on this. They aren't being forced into this by the EU. If they play their cards right, a hard Brexit could even lead to a (form of a) united Ireland. Depending on how the post-Brexit situation is, I could also easily see this leading to a succesful Scottish independence referendum. I would absolutely not be surprised if Brexit would lead to the end of the United Kingdom.

That doesn't mean I think that from November 1st the country will suddenly be a third world country, but unless there are some last minute deals it will affect the economy strongly, in a negative way. Look at how dependent the UK was in WWII  and it's aftermath when there was no trade with Europe - yes, people made it through, but it was a pretty awful time that no one wants to go back to.

I worry about how Brexit will affect the European economies as well, the UK is an important trade partner. There is certainly more leeway than the European leaders say there is now, but it's not going to be as easy as Boris thinks it will be and his personality makes it worse. He's a big character, a guy who doesn't seem to have much of a plan (if he does, it's well hidden) and he is strongly disliked by almost everyone and held responsible for getting you in this mess in the first place.

I actually care deeply about the UK (I have plans to FIRE there) and it saddens me so much that this has caused so much division and mess. As a European, I don't mind at all if countries want to leave the EU, but the UK has handled this badly. There should have been negotions for possible scenario's first and then people should have had their say. Now the Brexiters were basically given a blank check and ran with it. I don't think many Leavers intended to vote for a hard Brexit.

never give up

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 7906
  • Location: UK
  • Kindness is free to give and priceless to receive
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #34 on: July 31, 2019, 11:00:33 AM »
Ok Jim555, caring about the UK didn’t come across to me in your earlier posts. No worries.  I’m sorry to hear your FIRE plans could be disrupted by this.

I actually care deeply about the UK (I have plans to FIRE there) and it saddens me so much that this has caused so much division and mess. As a European, I don't mind at all if countries want to leave the EU, but the UK has handled this badly. There should have been negotions for possible scenario's first and then people should have had their say. Now the Brexiters were basically given a blank check and ran with it. I don't think many Leavers intended to vote for a hard Brexit.

One of the slogans on the Brexit side during the referendum was something along the lines of “Love Europe, hate the EU”. I voted remain so I’m not endorsing this, but it is clear many people dislike the structure of the EU and the way it goes about things but actually have nothing against Europe itself and like Europe and being European a lot. I can accept this view. I kind of think the EU should concentrate on the things that the individual countries can’t do on their own I.e. trade, environment and security. I can understand the view of not wanting the EU to get involved in other things e.g. single currency etc.

If the referendum had been:

1. Remain
2. Remain but reform the EU and our relationship with it
3. Leave (but as Imma says with a clear definition of what that would look like)

Then I reckon 2 would have won.

Sadly being a choice between 1 and 3 made it difficult to campaign for 1. It’s instantly on the back foot. Leave sounds positive, assertive, taking back control etc. It by its very nature sounds optimistic and patriotic. For me it was clear that remaining was actually the patriotic choice but saying “we’ll just stay and remain as we are” instantly sounds needy and pathetic.

As a result the remain campaign just played on project fear and quite rightly no one believed it. Saying we’ll slowly decline over a twenty to thirty year period doesn’t have the punch so they went for nonsense statements such as emergency budgets, and immediate disaster. What they should have done was state the positive case for being in the EU in a really patriotic and positive way. Instead they were complacent and wishy washy, and that makes me as angry as I feel towards Cameron putting his party above the national interest in the first place.

I fail to see how the democratic will of the people is relevant here when both campaigns were so shoddily run and information provided so sub-standard. I would be genuinely interested now after these last three years how a second referendum would turn out. The Irish border I can barely remember being discussed too much, when it should have been one of the key talking points. As Imma says I can easily see this leading to the break up of the UK in the worst case. Did people vote for that?

From a FIRE perspective though all we can do is keep indexing, minimise expenses, hone as many skills as possible and cycle lots (because it’s cool) I.e. all things we want to be doing anyway.

Villanelle

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6691
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2019, 11:24:34 AM »
Those of you who aren't worried about a no-deal Brexit, how do you think the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic is going to work?  Just curious.

- No visable border (fences etc)
- Allow businesses to create 'shipping plans' online which can be paid for online at the point of creation.  This would cover any WTO tariffs.  Can be enforced using heavy fines for non-compliant companies (after a grace period) - could easily be tracked using ANPR cameras and stopping unregistered transit vehicles
- Enforce checks on house purchases, benefits, school applications and job applications.  Fewer restrictions for Irish nationals compared to other EU nations (please note I know this wouldn't help illegal immigration, which isn't a huge issue, but I feel that the majority who voted for brexit did so to curb 'legal immigration' from other EU states).

Sweden and Finland have a seemless border with Norway.  There's no reason why Ireland couldn't be the same.  The only sticking point I see is the EU's stobborness and resentment towards one of it's largest trading partners, combined with our own poor leadership and lack of majority in the government.

I was very recently in the UK and of course Brexit and BoJo were all everyone talked about. i'm also pretty familiar with Ireland and it's politics.

In all honesty, the average Englishman/woman seems to have no idea how their country and it's current policy is being perceived in Ireland. The Conservative Party is currently in the grip of some 19th century imperialist toffs who never even considered the Irish border when they campaigned for Brexit. The same kind of people Irish people fought very hard to get rid of. The current PM has actually threatened Ireland with direct rule, apparantly unaware how sensitive that issue is.

The government of Ireland has absolutely 0 incentive to work with the UK on this. They aren't being forced into this by the EU. If they play their cards right, a hard Brexit could even lead to a (form of a) united Ireland. Depending on how the post-Brexit situation is, I could also easily see this leading to a succesful Scottish independence referendum. I would absolutely not be surprised if Brexit would lead to the end of the United Kingdom.

That doesn't mean I think that from November 1st the country will suddenly be a third world country, but unless there are some last minute deals it will affect the economy strongly, in a negative way. Look at how dependent the UK was in WWII  and it's aftermath when there was no trade with Europe - yes, people made it through, but it was a pretty awful time that no one wants to go back to.

I worry about how Brexit will affect the European economies as well, the UK is an important trade partner. There is certainly more leeway than the European leaders say there is now, but it's not going to be as easy as Boris thinks it will be and his personality makes it worse. He's a big character, a guy who doesn't seem to have much of a plan (if he does, it's well hidden) and he is strongly disliked by almost everyone and held responsible for getting you in this mess in the first place.

I actually care deeply about the UK (I have plans to FIRE there) and it saddens me so much that this has caused so much division and mess. As a European, I don't mind at all if countries want to leave the EU, but the UK has handled this badly. There should have been negotions for possible scenario's first and then people should have had their say. Now the Brexiters were basically given a blank check and ran with it. I don't think many Leavers intended to vote for a hard Brexit.

I'm but an ignorant Yank, but this is what I've wondered about.  I spent some time in Scotland before their last (unsuccessful, of course) independence vote and it seemed the primary talking point for the "stay" camp and the primary concern of those undecided was fears over what would happen if they separated and in doing so, lost their membership in the EU.  (There were valid concerns about whether they EU would let them in as an Independent Scotland, especially when Spain in particular has an interest in not encouraging these kinds of separations).  Now that they are presumably losing their "EU-ness" anyway, that issue with independence is moot.  Not only moot, but separation could also give them at least a chance of staying-in/rejoining the EU.

And the Irish (RoI and NI) are understandably sensitive about the issue.  If the deal (whether that's a no-deal deal, or a deal deal) feels wrong to them, the prospect of finally having a unified Ireland is surely going to be on the minds of many.

Whether the things will happen, and even whether they would be bad (that probably depends on for whom one is judging "bad") remains to be seen. But it's all the possibility for even more turmoil.

I'm sure Britain/England/the UK will come out just fine in the long run, but it seems to me like there could be some very tough years of growing pains.  I hope they are able to get some sort of deal, and the the EU deals fairly with them, even though they have all the power and no real concrete reason, other than decency, to do so.   

InterfaceLeader

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1758
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2019, 11:42:07 AM »
Assuming BoJo does hammer through a no-deal Brexit, will that affect your FIRE plans? I'm wondering if it might end up being positive for us in the long term, if we can buy UK stocks at a 'discounted' rate for several years and then think about retiring once the economy has recovered.

 I think there's a high risk the NHS will collapse and be privatised as a result of a number of factors, but definitely exacerbated by a no-deal Brexit. That would probably have a profound impact on many people's FIRE plans.

vand

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 2346
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #37 on: July 31, 2019, 12:17:02 PM »
I have no doubt that the UK will pull through. They always have. And after spending a few summers on road trips all over the UK, I'm impressed by the ever present frugality. In many small towns it is easier to find second hand shops than ordinary clothing stores.


Charity shops get absolutely massive tax breaks that enable them to have keep such a large presence on the High Street. If they were subject to the same rules as everyone else they would literally disappear overnight. There are quite a few who begrudge theis and think that charity shops are increasingly out of touch with the realities of real businesses.

Rightflyer

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 405
  • Location: Cotswolds
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #38 on: July 31, 2019, 12:23:29 PM »
Fascism - check
Climate change - check
WW2 - check
German - check
Trump - check

Well done you numpties.

shelivesthedream

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6757
  • Location: London, UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #39 on: July 31, 2019, 02:02:32 PM »
I'm much more worried about Brexit now BoJo is in charge because I think he is so much more likely to make inflammatory statements and do PR stunts that have resounding repercussions. I very much wish we could tell America to just sod off, we don't want a trade deal with you and all your crap non-food. I know that's not prudent or realistic, but I have much less confidence in BoJo than in pretty much anyone else in politics because I think he's more likely to just do some kind of handshake deal on the golf course with Trump and then we're all stuck with it - neither of them having thought it through. I know he's not stupid, but I don't think he is self-disciplined and thoughtful. There are 168 other non-EU countries in the world. If we are going to throw our weight around trying to negotiate our own trade deals, let's start somewhere else.

I'm also much more worried about the Irish border. The problems haven't changed, but the likelihood of Boris saying something "funny" which basically starts the entire Troubles aaaaalllll over again seems very high to me.

My official prediction is that we'll be economically depressed for a decade and then start to see a recovery which will take another decade to come to fruition.

I actually care about the UK and get upset when I see the news about Brexit, since I think it is a massive mistake that is totally avoidable.  My mother was a teen in Britain in WWII and came over after the war, and I hold a British passport.  My EU free movement rights are being destroyed and it greatly reduces the number of countries I can move to for retirement.

Oh wow, yeah, I can totally see that in your previous posts in this thread. You sound really concerned and not at all like a judgemental agitator. You also sound fully aware that I think most of the participants in this thread voted remain.

Resting in your past glory I see.  If it wasn't for the Americans you all would be speaking German right now.  I don't know where you get this notion that you all are in some kind of preferred negotiating position with the US or the EU.  Announce you are leaving the EU and wonder why the EU isn't bending over backwards to help you.  Total delusion.  You are the ones who will be hurt massively, not the EU, relatively speaking.  Since you all will be effectively cut off from world trade post Brexit, you are in the weakest possible position to negotiate anything with anyone.  Trump has already effectively gotten rid of your Ambassador, because he didn't like him.  Instead of sticking up for him the government let him leave since you need a trade deal and don't want to upset the orange man.  BoJo is quiet was a mouse on this.  Pathetic and weak.

Imma

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3193
  • Location: Europe
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #40 on: July 31, 2019, 03:17:41 PM »
Funny enough I heard a lot of people say recently that they have faith in Boris, that he's a true character and not some bland bureaucrat. Which is if course true but absolutely not an advantage in this situation. The European leaders aren't the type of people who are going to be impressed by a PM without tact or attention to detail no matter how good company he might be in the pub. Imagine a meeting between him and Angela Merkel.... It would make great comedy if it wasn't so awful.

I also don't believe he is an idiot - far from that - but "making it up as you go along" seems a pretty fair description of his career (and his private life) so far. I think the lack of sympathy that is felt for him in Brussels will affect the UK's chances of a good deal.

@never give up I absolutely agree that the EU in its current form is deeply flawed, however, the benefits currently outweigh the cost imho  The core issue is that over the past half of a century the EU has developed constantly, but has (on purpose) avoided the question of what we are developing into, because it's politically so controversial. But you can't keep ignoring the basics for much longer: if we want a completely open market, we logically need the same set of rules everywhere. This would imply a federal Europe and that's where we're headed now, but without anyone saying it out loud. If that happens we need a lot more political transparancy and more power for the elected parliament, like in a regular federal state. It seems like most EU citizens are less interested in a federal Europe than their leaders and see no other option than to talk about leaving the EU all together, which I think would be a very bad development (although I guess Brexit is a good deterrant). Whatever way we are headed, we need to have a fundamental discussion about the direction and the destination of the European project and implement the necessary changes if we don't want the whole EU to collapse.

gaja

  • Handlebar Stache
  • *****
  • Posts: 1681
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #41 on: July 31, 2019, 04:24:24 PM »
I'm much more worried about Brexit now BoJo is in charge because I think he is so much more likely to make inflammatory statements and do PR stunts that have resounding repercussions. I very much wish we could tell America to just sod off, we don't want a trade deal with you and all your crap non-food. I know that's not prudent or realistic, but I have much less confidence in BoJo than in pretty much anyone else in politics because I think he's more likely to just do some kind of handshake deal on the golf course with Trump and then we're all stuck with it - neither of them having thought it through. I know he's not stupid, but I don't think he is self-disciplined and thoughtful. There are 168 other non-EU countries in the world. If we are going to throw our weight around trying to negotiate our own trade deals, let's start somewhere else.

I'm also much more worried about the Irish border. The problems haven't changed, but the likelihood of Boris saying something "funny" which basically starts the entire Troubles aaaaalllll over again seems very high to me.

My official prediction is that we'll be economically depressed for a decade and then start to see a recovery which will take another decade to come to fruition.

Does BoJo really have the power to do handshake deals? My impression from a childhood watching the documentary series* "Yes Minister", is that the British bureaucrazy appears rather robust. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvYuoWyk8iU


I do share your worry about BoJo and the Irish border.


*Later cooperation with different types of British agencies and authorities has made me certain that every word in that series is true.

MarcherLady

  • Walrus Stache
  • *******
  • Posts: 6061
  • Age: 10
  • Location: North of the Wall, UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #42 on: August 01, 2019, 06:11:58 AM »
Meh, lets not feed the trolls, it's a waste of our stock-piled food...

FIFTWUK

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 15
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #43 on: August 02, 2019, 01:53:20 AM »
In all seriousness, as a regular listener to Politics Weekly, Brexit podcasts etc., I get the distinct feeling no-deal Brexit will be prevented by parliament.
As far as political strategy goes, I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of MPs that aren't for a no-deal Brexit would be quiet and let BoJo and his new cabinet try and force the new EU parliament into a "better" deal (even if it's better only in the sense of Brexiteers being defeated for internal political reasons), and if that wouldn't happen, they would force BoJo to either extend the dealine or retract article 50.

I know this might not be terribly relevant on a grand scale of things, but I don't get why Jo Johnson would come back otherwise. I appreciate his is a safe seat and the majority of Orpington voted to Leave, but would it really be politically expedient for him to risk his own statement being thrown at him in the next election? (https://medium.com/@JoJohnsonUK/why-i-cannot-support-the-governments-proposed-brexit-deal-3d289f95f2bc)

I admit this might be my optimism and belief in common sense talking, but I am making a significant bet on the £ because of it.

Manchester

  • Bristles
  • ***
  • Posts: 405
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #44 on: August 02, 2019, 04:09:59 AM »
Jim555 - you realise we are allies right? This thread is about FIRE plans for people living in the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit. The thread isn’t titled “have a pop at a nation you don’t like”. It should be possible to rationally talk about this topic without trying to deliberately wind people up.
I actually care about the UK and get upset when I see the news about Brexit, since I think it is a massive mistake that is totally avoidable.  My mother was a teen in Britain in WWII and came over after the war, and I hold a British passport.  My EU free movement rights are being destroyed and it greatly reduces the number of countries I can move to for retirement.

This is coming from a USA resident I presume?  Oh diddums, I'm so sorry a nation you've never lived in and it's democracy came before Jim555's plans to retire in sunny Spain...

Whether you think Brexit is a mistake or not is irrelevant and the idea that Brexit, now, after all this is totally avoidable is complete delusion.  If we're worried about civil unrest in Ireland, imagine the civil unrest amongst Leave voters if we didn't leave?  Our whole political system would be finished.

jim555

  • Magnum Stache
  • ******
  • Posts: 3245
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #45 on: August 02, 2019, 07:30:19 AM »
Jim555 - you realise we are allies right? This thread is about FIRE plans for people living in the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit. The thread isn’t titled “have a pop at a nation you don’t like”. It should be possible to rationally talk about this topic without trying to deliberately wind people up.
I actually care about the UK and get upset when I see the news about Brexit, since I think it is a massive mistake that is totally avoidable.  My mother was a teen in Britain in WWII and came over after the war, and I hold a British passport.  My EU free movement rights are being destroyed and it greatly reduces the number of countries I can move to for retirement.

This is coming from a USA resident I presume?  Oh diddums, I'm so sorry a nation you've never lived in and it's democracy came before Jim555's plans to retire in sunny Spain...

Whether you think Brexit is a mistake or not is irrelevant and the idea that Brexit, now, after all this is totally avoidable is complete delusion.  If we're worried about civil unrest in Ireland, imagine the civil unrest amongst Leave voters if we didn't leave?  Our whole political system would be finished.
The Tories would be finished, but that isn't the end of the system, and many would argue its for the better.  I have no plans to retire in Spain, but to have that option available is a huge thing.  You can retire in sunny Eastborne, I would rather have Spain or Portugal.  How is limiting your options for geo-arbitrage to LCOL areas good for early retirement?  Hard Brexit would probably help me since I am in US dollars, the pound would dive hard and I could buy up some of your collapsing real estate on the cheap.

frugledoc

  • Pencil Stache
  • ****
  • Posts: 743
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #46 on: August 02, 2019, 11:53:31 AM »
Jim555 - you realise we are allies right? This thread is about FIRE plans for people living in the UK in the event of a no deal Brexit. The thread isn’t titled “have a pop at a nation you don’t like”. It should be possible to rationally talk about this topic without trying to deliberately wind people up.
I actually care about the UK and get upset when I see the news about Brexit, since I think it is a massive mistake that is totally avoidable.  My mother was a teen in Britain in WWII and came over after the war, and I hold a British passport.  My EU free movement rights are being destroyed and it greatly reduces the number of countries I can move to for retirement.

This is coming from a USA resident I presume?  Oh diddums, I'm so sorry a nation you've never lived in and it's democracy came before Jim555's plans to retire in sunny Spain...

Whether you think Brexit is a mistake or not is irrelevant and the idea that Brexit, now, after all this is totally avoidable is complete delusion.  If we're worried about civil unrest in Ireland, imagine the civil unrest amongst Leave voters if we didn't leave?  Our whole political system would be finished.
The Tories would be finished, but that isn't the end of the system, and many would argue its for the better.  I have no plans to retire in Spain, but to have that option available is a huge thing.  You can retire in sunny Eastborne, I would rather have Spain or Portugal.  How is limiting your options for geo-arbitrage to LCOL areas good for early retirement?  Hard Brexit would probably help me since I am in US dollars, the pound would dive hard and I could buy up some of your collapsing real estate on the cheap.

Calm down dude.  You are really intense.

Kookaburra Risotto

  • 5 O'Clock Shadow
  • *
  • Posts: 29
  • Age: 43
  • Location: UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #47 on: August 04, 2019, 06:16:55 AM »
I'm much more worried about Brexit now BoJo is in charge because I think he is so much more likely to make inflammatory statements and do PR stunts that have resounding repercussions. I very much wish we could tell America to just sod off, we don't want a trade deal with you and all your crap non-food. I know that's not prudent or realistic, but I have much less confidence in BoJo than in pretty much anyone else in politics because I think he's more likely to just do some kind of handshake deal on the golf course with Trump and then we're all stuck with it - neither of them having thought it through. I know he's not stupid, but I don't think he is self-disciplined and thoughtful. There are 168 other non-EU countries in the world. If we are going to throw our weight around trying to negotiate our own trade deals, let's start somewhere else.

I'm also much more worried about the Irish border. The problems haven't changed, but the likelihood of Boris saying something "funny" which basically starts the entire Troubles aaaaalllll over again seems very high to me.

My official prediction is that we'll be economically depressed for a decade and then start to see a recovery which will take another decade to come to fruition.

I actually care about the UK and get upset when I see the news about Brexit, since I think it is a massive mistake that is totally avoidable.  My mother was a teen in Britain in WWII and came over after the war, and I hold a British passport.  My EU free movement rights are being destroyed and it greatly reduces the number of countries I can move to for retirement.

Oh wow, yeah, I can totally see that in your previous posts in this thread. You sound really concerned and not at all like a judgemental agitator. You also sound fully aware that I think most of the participants in this thread voted remain.

Resting in your past glory I see.  If it wasn't for the Americans you all would be speaking German right now.  I don't know where you get this notion that you all are in some kind of preferred negotiating position with the US or the EU.  Announce you are leaving the EU and wonder why the EU isn't bending over backwards to help you.  Total delusion.  You are the ones who will be hurt massively, not the EU, relatively speaking.  Since you all will be effectively cut off from world trade post Brexit, you are in the weakest possible position to negotiate anything with anyone.  Trump has already effectively gotten rid of your Ambassador, because he didn't like him.  Instead of sticking up for him the government let him leave since you need a trade deal and don't want to upset the orange man.  BoJo is quiet was a mouse on this.  Pathetic and weak.

Everything I wanted to say but didn't have the energy to articulate.

poppydog

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 156
  • Location: Scotland, UK
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #48 on: August 04, 2019, 03:19:08 PM »
Assuming BoJo does hammer through a no-deal Brexit, will that affect your FIRE plans? I'm wondering if it might end up being positive for us in the long term, if we can buy UK stocks at a 'discounted' rate for several years and then think about retiring once the economy has recovered.

 I think there's a high risk the NHS will collapse and be privatised as a result of a number of factors, but definitely exacerbated by a no-deal Brexit. That would probably have a profound impact on many people's FIRE plans.

Utter nonsense.  Sorry.

Jamese20

  • Stubble
  • **
  • Posts: 233
Re: [UK] No deal Brexit and FIRE
« Reply #49 on: August 05, 2019, 03:32:12 AM »
Ok Jim555, caring about the UK didn’t come across to me in your earlier posts. No worries.  I’m sorry to hear your FIRE plans could be disrupted by this.

I actually care deeply about the UK (I have plans to FIRE there) and it saddens me so much that this has caused so much division and mess. As a European, I don't mind at all if countries want to leave the EU, but the UK has handled this badly. There should have been negotions for possible scenario's first and then people should have had their say. Now the Brexiters were basically given a blank check and ran with it. I don't think many Leavers intended to vote for a hard Brexit.

One of the slogans on the Brexit side during the referendum was something along the lines of “Love Europe, hate the EU”. I voted remain so I’m not endorsing this, but it is clear many people dislike the structure of the EU and the way it goes about things but actually have nothing against Europe itself and like Europe and being European a lot. I can accept this view. I kind of think the EU should concentrate on the things that the individual countries can’t do on their own I.e. trade, environment and security. I can understand the view of not wanting the EU to get involved in other things e.g. single currency etc.

If the referendum had been:

1. Remain
2. Remain but reform the EU and our relationship with it
3. Leave (but as Imma says with a clear definition of what that would look like)

Then I reckon 2 would have won.

Sadly being a choice between 1 and 3 made it difficult to campaign for 1. It’s instantly on the back foot. Leave sounds positive, assertive, taking back control etc. It by its very nature sounds optimistic and patriotic. For me it was clear that remaining was actually the patriotic choice but saying “we’ll just stay and remain as we are” instantly sounds needy and pathetic.

As a result the remain campaign just played on project fear and quite rightly no one believed it. Saying we’ll slowly decline over a twenty to thirty year period doesn’t have the punch so they went for nonsense statements such as emergency budgets, and immediate disaster. What they should have done was state the positive case for being in the EU in a really patriotic and positive way. Instead they were complacent and wishy washy, and that makes me as angry as I feel towards Cameron putting his party above the national interest in the first place.

I fail to see how the democratic will of the people is relevant here when both campaigns were so shoddily run and information provided so sub-standard. I would be genuinely interested now after these last three years how a second referendum would turn out. The Irish border I can barely remember being discussed too much, when it should have been one of the key talking points. As Imma says I can easily see this leading to the break up of the UK in the worst case. Did people vote for that?

From a FIRE perspective though all we can do is keep indexing, minimise expenses, hone as many skills as possible and cycle lots (because it’s cool) I.e. all things we want to be doing anyway.

"reform the EU" impossible the EU have only reformed to create a a federalist united europe only which has always been the plan. - this is a really naive thing and you cant be following the actions of the EU throughout time thinking they can reform - Cameron also tried to reform the EU which lead to a brexit win.