Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 763462 times)

rmorris50

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Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5150 on: July 10, 2021, 12:52:01 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.


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Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5151 on: July 10, 2021, 01:43:35 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.
What your life would be like without it?

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5152 on: July 10, 2021, 01:47:31 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.


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I was cleaning out old paper work today.  You know how things get shoved to the back and never see daylight again.  There were printouts from 2004!  WTF.  I filled a huge trashcan with old paperwork that is now useless.  I started working in this building in 1992.  I'm on a quest to find paperwork from the 90s now.  Those papers are worthless.  What's not worthless?  The dollars I invested in1992 that are worth 10 times or more what they were then.  Yes there is inflation loss, but the investments far outpaced inflation.  I've got 22 months left to the finish line.  How did I go from the kid to the old guy?

G-dog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5153 on: July 10, 2021, 01:48:09 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.


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The shares you own are real.  If you turn iff your computer the shares (and electrons) are still there. When you turn off the lights do your other possessions actually disappear / dematerialize?

The growth definitely feels unreal to me, but it keeps working so no complaints (yes, I have gone through some big stock market falls too).

rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5154 on: July 10, 2021, 02:46:45 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.
What your life would be like without it?
This is actually a loaded question. Because that would mean I would have made completely different life choices in the first place :-)

But that is an excellent answer to put things in perspective!


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rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5155 on: July 10, 2021, 02:49:41 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The shares you own are real.  If you turn iff your computer the shares (and electrons) are still there. When you turn off the lights do your other possessions actually disappear / dematerialize?

The growth definitely feels unreal to me, but it keeps working so no complaints (yes, I have gone through some big stock market falls too).
Maybe they do, and maybe they rematerialize when the lights come on.


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SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5156 on: July 10, 2021, 03:04:48 PM »
Maybe they do, and maybe they rematerialize when the lights come on.

Schrodinger's Top is in!

G-dog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5157 on: July 10, 2021, 03:31:14 PM »
Maybe they do, and maybe they rematerialize when the lights come on.

Schrodinger's Top is in!

Excellent! So is Schrödinger’s Bottom.

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5158 on: July 10, 2021, 05:16:34 PM »
Hmm we're both retired but our 0.69% WR seems to be having a similar effect of actively contributing.

At least during this bull market..:)

Amazing!  You are either well into "and Beyond" territory, or you have your spending much more contained than I do.  Definitely tells me that I have more work to do to get my spending more under control before pulling the RE trigger!  Well done, @Exflyboy !! 

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5159 on: July 10, 2021, 05:25:49 PM »
Maybe they do, and maybe they rematerialize when the lights come on.

Schrodinger's Top is in!

Excellent! So is Schrödinger’s Bottom.

.....at the same time.....   [Sorry, couldn't resist]   :-)

G-dog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5160 on: July 10, 2021, 05:32:36 PM »
Maybe they do, and maybe they rematerialize when the lights come on.

Schrodinger's Top is in!

Excellent! So is Schrödinger’s Bottom.

.....at the same time.....   [Sorry, couldn't resist]   :-)

Exactly!

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5161 on: July 11, 2021, 10:35:19 AM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.


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I think beyond the improvement that may be made possible by this it's the emotional well being.  There is such a thing as a sense of freedom.  Your life itself may not be different on the outside, but when you get to that critical mass, something changes on the inside.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5162 on: July 12, 2021, 10:56:01 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


The shares you own are real.  If you turn iff your computer the shares (and electrons) are still there. When you turn off the lights do your other possessions actually disappear / dematerialize?

The growth definitely feels unreal to me, but it keeps working so no complaints (yes, I have gone through some big stock market falls too).
Maybe they do, and maybe they rematerialize when the lights come on.


What is the sound of one hand clapping, Grasshopper? 

Ok, so it's not the same era as Keep on Truckin', but within spitting distance.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5163 on: July 13, 2021, 12:23:32 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.

I think that is one of the things that scares those of us relying solely on FI for 30 years...  Unless we can truly 'stockpile' value in a way that only time can match, then it does seem flimsy to think that our millions will necessarily be a 'wall and moat' that keeps us FI and others that want it bad enough to have to make sacrifices and many be unable to get in...

If the government prints enough money, ultimately FI will come down to 'real assets' like owning our homes, cars (as a shorthand for 'tools'), and the ability to provide economic value to others in exchange for things we don't have an endless supply of such as food/potable water/electricity/fuel/medical care...  hope the US can stay First World enough so that it never comes to that!

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5164 on: July 13, 2021, 05:46:41 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.

I think that is one of the things that scares those of us relying solely on FI for 30 years...  Unless we can truly 'stockpile' value in a way that only time can match, then it does seem flimsy to think that our millions will necessarily be a 'wall and moat' that keeps us FI and others that want it bad enough to have to make sacrifices and many be unable to get in...

If the government prints enough money, ultimately FI will come down to 'real assets' like owning our homes, cars (as a shorthand for 'tools'), and the ability to provide economic value to others in exchange for things we don't have an endless supply of such as food/potable water/electricity/fuel/medical care...  hope the US can stay First World enough so that it never comes to that!


Maybe that's why Bill Gates is buying up so much farmland.  (And to think, I was thinking that he was going to open a theme park!) 

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5165 on: July 13, 2021, 08:04:14 PM »
Maybe that's why Bill Gates is buying up so much farmland.  (And to think, I was thinking that he was going to open a theme park!)

The Blue Screen of Death is the first ride.  But then you have to reboot your ticket

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5166 on: July 13, 2021, 08:54:23 PM »
So what makes it all real? Instead of just a bunch of numbers on a screen? If I turn off my computer does my NW really exist? Guess our house is real.

Just watching the NW grow over the past year is definitely surreal.

I think that is one of the things that scares those of us relying solely on FI for 30 years...  Unless we can truly 'stockpile' value in a way that only time can match, then it does seem flimsy to think that our millions will necessarily be a 'wall and moat' that keeps us FI and others that want it bad enough to have to make sacrifices and many be unable to get in...

If the government prints enough money, ultimately FI will come down to 'real assets' like owning our homes, cars (as a shorthand for 'tools'), and the ability to provide economic value to others in exchange for things we don't have an endless supply of such as food/potable water/electricity/fuel/medical care...  hope the US can stay First World enough so that it never comes to that!

Maybe that's why Bill Gates is buying up so much farmland.  (And to think, I was thinking that he was going to open a theme park!)

My comment is biased by the crazy high home sales prices going on around me matched with the empty roads and office buildings I'm seeing on my way to work...  I'm not complaining that my home is worth a lot more than I ever would have dreamt, but I have to wonder if people just have too much easy money available and a limited supply of worthwhile things to buy.  I'm definitely in that camp :(    I'm not selling my house since I'd have no use for the pile of money I'd get!

I'd be willing to pay twice what I used to for getting the same value I would've received in 2019...  Fingers crossed for our Alaska cruise in August...

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5167 on: July 14, 2021, 08:08:39 AM »
I'm a big fan of tangible assets, but I'm only comfortable with real estate and a smattering of precious metals.  We have vintage cars and other odds and ends that have gone up in value, but that is just the cherry on top of having something that we enjoy owning.    Upthread someone mentioned Banksy art as a prime asset...how fun... I applaud!   I consider almost everything I own to be worth nearly nothing... it's just to use and enjoy. then donate. 

In the 2008 melt down, a large number of people that I knew that lost their homes had done cash out re-finances.   Many of them had owned for years or decades, and the easy money from an equity line or cash out re-fi was simply too appealing to pass by.   Then they got in trouble.  I can think of a couple examples where the home was in foreclosure, and the yard had an assortment of expensive toys, like boats, RV's, toy haulers, Motorcycles, Jet Skis, etc.  These depreciate.   Their home equity was sitting in the driveway losing value by the day, and they're moving in with their parents.  It was spendthrift behavior on steriods. 

 When we finally succumbed to the allure of easy money, we took out an equity line and started buying rental houses. (Good debt, right?)  Since our rentals start cash flowing as soon as they're rented, it's a viable alternative to a safe withdrawal rate on a portfolio and subject to different market influences.  We aim for a 10% gross yearly rental return, that nets about 8% once the mortgage is paid off.   Our 2008-2012 purchases have seen a monthly rental increase between $500-$1000 each, and could be much higher.   And we keep the asset as it rises in value.   The dollar cost of homes/rents tracks up with inflation, so my cash value goes along for the ride.   

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5168 on: July 14, 2021, 08:25:44 AM »
So do index funds keep up with inflation?  I don't see why not since you are buying a piece of productive facilities somewhere.  Houses keep up with inflation.  Gold is good for it.  Art and old cars seem to go up in price too.  Land goes up.  They aren't making any more of it.  Houses go up.  You can charge more in rent.  What doesn't go up with inflation?

Cash and what they pay you, I guess.  Another SCAM to make working people poor.

Car Jack

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5169 on: July 15, 2021, 07:20:07 AM »
I'm a big fan of tangible assets, but I'm only comfortable with real estate and a smattering of precious metals.  We have vintage cars and other odds and ends that have gone up in value, but that is just the cherry on top of having something that we enjoy owning.   

Can you tell us about the cars?  I for one am a huge car guy.  Being frugal, I have not done the Hoovies, Ed Bolian, Tavarish kinds of car collections in ginormous garages, but have autocrossed, roadraced and run car shows for everyone from World of Wheels to BMW CCA in my past.  Currently, my son has the fun toy cars (a 2004 Honda S2000 and 2020 Subaru STi) that I get to drive, but I have a serious eye on the new Lotus Emira if dealers don't gouge.

I'm imagining Ferrari 275's or Lamborghini Miuras in your collection.  But heck, an unrusted MGB would interest me (my first road car was an MGB).

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5170 on: July 15, 2021, 07:27:20 AM »
Land goes up.  They aren't making any more of it.

Might want to rethink that.  It's not been true since at least the 1300s, and that's not counting Mother Nature.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_the_Netherlands#:~:text=The%20Dutch%20have%20a%20long%20history%20of%20reclamation,polders%20in%20north-west%20Europe%20is%20in%20the%20Netherlands.

Dubai is also creating more land.  See the attached aerial photo.

I've landed on airport runways that were on man-made land.




pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5171 on: July 15, 2021, 08:09:21 AM »
Land goes up.  They aren't making any more of it.

Might want to rethink that.  It's not been true since at least the 1300s, and that's not counting Mother Nature.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_the_Netherlands#:~:text=The%20Dutch%20have%20a%20long%20history%20of%20reclamation,polders%20in%20north-west%20Europe%20is%20in%20the%20Netherlands.

Dubai is also creating more land.  See the attached aerial photo.

I've landed on airport runways that were on man-made land.

Sometimes it's good to be wrong.  The next time I hear that phrase, I'll have to laugh.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5172 on: July 15, 2021, 09:10:16 AM »
I'm a big fan of tangible assets, but I'm only comfortable with real estate and a smattering of precious metals.  We have vintage cars and other odds and ends that have gone up in value, but that is just the cherry on top of having something that we enjoy owning.   

Can you tell us about the cars?  I for one am a huge car guy.  Being frugal, I have not done the Hoovies, Ed Bolian, Tavarish kinds of car collections in ginormous garages, but have autocrossed, roadraced and run car shows for everyone from World of Wheels to BMW CCA in my past.  Currently, my son has the fun toy cars (a 2004 Honda S2000 and 2020 Subaru STi) that I get to drive, but I have a serious eye on the new Lotus Emira if dealers don't gouge.

I'm imagining Ferrari 275's or Lamborghini Miuras in your collection.  But heck, an unrusted MGB would interest me (my first road car was an MGB).

Hmmm, you're asking the wrong one under this roof, but I'll take a stab at it. 

 Hubs is a Ford Guy. 

 1964 1/2 Mustang (supposed to be mine, where are those keys???), plus a newish Shelby Cobra Mustang 50th anniversary edition of some sort.
 Ford Bronco very old.. looks like a jeep.  Supposed to be very valuable now.  Ford Bronco from the late 1970's... one of my favorites to drive. 
 1940 Ford pick up and Coupe and some other 40's... basically a series.
Old Langandorf bread truck-- I like this one too.
Some sorts of old military vehicles that are currently in vogue.   They are big. 
Baja Bug
Everyday vehicles... 2 trucks, a minivan, my CRV, dump truck, vintage tractors. 
A boatload of motorcycles, including lots of old vintage ones.  Mostly running, some need restoring.

Back in the dark ages, before I was married and before we lost beloved family members, my family had half a dozen OSCA Maseratis and a Ferrari 365 GTC 2 +2.   One of the OSCA's was a prototype race car and was sold in in the middle of being restored in pieces/boxes/parts for 200K in the 1980's.  That car is surely worth millions now.  There was only one.  If I owned it, it would definitely count as NW!   Another little Osca touring car was owned by the Prince of Wales, Charles.    My favorite car was the Ferrari 330 Coupe.   Back then they were $17,000... a fortune! 

 I had both a little MG convertible and a very fun Alpha Romeo when I was young, and had many speeding tickets to prove it.   Then I got married, had kids, and entered my minivan soccer mom era. 

Visitation

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5173 on: July 15, 2021, 10:39:38 AM »
New here to the site...

$2.37M investable assets
$410K real-estate
$300K alternative investments (mineral rights, producing income)

I'm 49, DW is 53.  We've reached FI but I continue to work.   DW left the workforce when our son was born 14 years who has Down Syndrome.

Plan is to work corporate job until ~57 when my son will be 21, shooting for a NW of $5M. 

Post retirement, plan to buy or open a business (which may not be considered retired) that my son could work at to give him a meaningful life...and hopefully cover everyone's healthcare costs.

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Simpli-Fi

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5174 on: July 15, 2021, 11:02:32 AM »
I'm a big fan of tangible assets, but I'm only comfortable with real estate and a smattering of precious metals.  We have vintage cars and other odds and ends that have gone up in value, but that is just the cherry on top of having something that we enjoy owning.   

Can you tell us about the cars?  I for one am a huge car guy.  Being frugal, I have not done the Hoovies, Ed Bolian, Tavarish kinds of car collections in ginormous garages, but have autocrossed, roadraced and run car shows for everyone from World of Wheels to BMW CCA in my past.  Currently, my son has the fun toy cars (a 2004 Honda S2000 and 2020 Subaru STi) that I get to drive, but I have a serious eye on the new Lotus Emira if dealers don't gouge.

I'm imagining Ferrari 275's or Lamborghini Miuras in your collection.  But heck, an unrusted MGB would interest me (my first road car was an MGB).

Hmmm, you're asking the wrong one under this roof, but I'll take a stab at it. 

 Ford Bronco very old.. looks like a jeep.  Supposed to be very valuable now.  Ford Bronco from the late 1970's... one of my favorites to drive.
Own.  This gets more attention than anything else I’ve ever driven.

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5175 on: July 15, 2021, 11:15:14 AM »
Welcome, @Visitation . That sounds like a very well thought out plan, given your family dynamics.

Visitation

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5176 on: July 15, 2021, 11:26:09 AM »
Welcome, @Visitation . That sounds like a very well thought out plan, given your family dynamics.
Thank You....

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Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5177 on: July 15, 2021, 12:56:29 PM »
New here to the site...

$2.37M investable assets
$410K real-estate
$300K alternative investments (mineral rights, producing income)

I'm 49, DW is 53.  We've reached FI but I continue to work.   DW left the workforce when our son was born 14 years who has Down Syndrome.

Plan is to work corporate job until ~57 when my son will be 21, shooting for a NW of $5M. 

Post retirement, plan to buy or open a business (which may not be considered retired) that my son could work at to give him a meaningful life...and hopefully cover everyone's healthcare costs.

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Welcome aboard.   Looks like you guys are doing well.  Some here may scoff at wanting 5 million before retirement. That's very understandable being that you have a special needs son.  He could outlive you by several decades potentially.  I hope you can set up a trust to help him along.  Legacy planning is part of the reason I'm working a little longwer.  I just turned 53 and will be retired just before 55,  if I can hold out that long.  Best of luck.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2021, 12:58:17 PM by Bateaux »

Visitation

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5178 on: July 15, 2021, 01:06:38 PM »
New here to the site...

$2.37M investable assets
$410K real-estate
$300K alternative investments (mineral rights, producing income)

I'm 49, DW is 53.  We've reached FI but I continue to work.   DW left the workforce when our son was born 14 years who has Down Syndrome.

Plan is to work corporate job until ~57 when my son will be 21, shooting for a NW of $5M. 

Post retirement, plan to buy or open a business (which may not be considered retired) that my son could work at to give him a meaningful life...and hopefully cover everyone's healthcare costs.

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Welcome aboard.   Looks like you guys are doing well.  Some here may scoff at wanting 5 million before retirement. That's very understandable being that you have a special needs son.  He could outlive you by several decades potentially.  I hope you can set up a trust to help him along.  Legacy planning is part of the reason I'm working a little longwer.  I just turned 53 and will be retired just before 55,  if I can hold out that long.  Best of luck.
We have opened an Able account for him which is like a Roth IRA that falls under the 529 education plan rules.  These assets don't count against him in terms of govt benefits (medicaid) and as long as the balance is under $100K, doesn't disqualify for SSI.

Plan is for our remaining assets to go into a Special Needs Trust to support him after were gone with the balance going to his cousin's should he pass.

But since this thread is about the race from $2M to $4M, were about half way there :-)

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rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5179 on: July 19, 2021, 11:06:20 AM »
Lotta froth being skimmed off our investments by the market today!


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arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5180 on: July 19, 2021, 01:12:30 PM »
Lotta froth being skimmed off our investments by the market today!


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Indeed!  Just riding this out; S&P 500 has hit the 50 SMA today.  Let's see if it bounces back.  Its definitely been a brutal 5-6 day run here.....

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5181 on: July 19, 2021, 03:32:49 PM »
Lotta froth being skimmed off our investments by the market today!


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Indeed!  Just riding this out; S&P 500 has hit the 50 SMA today.  Let's see if it bounces back.  Its definitely been a brutal 5-6 day run here.....

A pull back was well overdue.   

Visitation

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5182 on: July 20, 2021, 06:36:09 AM »
If the SP500 hits correction territory,  it will be time for another Roth conversion!  Think defensively and save on taxes!

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Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5183 on: July 20, 2021, 07:04:29 AM »
If the SP500 hits correction territory,  it will be time for another Roth conversion!  Think defensively and save on taxes!

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Lol, I haven't been paying attention, but these posts made me think it's time to fund this year's Roths.

Welcome, Visitation!

Also, her situation is different, but we have a member who uses an Able account and is quite knowledgeable on the suggest. She is @Tami1982, and her journal is here:

https://forum.mrmoneymustache.com/journals/i'm-back!-life-on-a-dime-or-less-than-$25-000-a-year/msg2874923/#msg2874923

rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5184 on: July 20, 2021, 11:07:16 AM »
Lotta froth being skimmed off our investments by the market today!


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Indeed!  Just riding this out; S&P 500 has hit the 50 SMA today.  Let's see if it bounces back.  Its definitely been a brutal 5-6 day run here.....

A pull back was well overdue.
A very short lived pullback. Yesterday the economy was in trouble due to delta variant (an excuse to sell, I know) but today all is right with the world and the Market bounces back.


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Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5185 on: July 20, 2021, 04:25:17 PM »
Lotta froth being skimmed off our investments by the market today!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Indeed!  Just riding this out; S&P 500 has hit the 50 SMA today.  Let's see if it bounces back.  Its definitely been a brutal 5-6 day run here.....

A pull back was well overdue.
A very short lived pullback. Yesterday the economy was in trouble due to delta variant (an excuse to sell, I know) but today all is right with the world and the Market bounces back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
For the members of this group this is noise.  I think my accounts dropped 2%.  Then it rallied back today, much of that so called loss.  I think we'll see a 5% or more pullback if the FED ever acts responsibly.  For now the bubble continues to inflate.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5186 on: July 20, 2021, 09:29:05 PM »
Lotta froth being skimmed off our investments by the market today!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Indeed!  Just riding this out; S&P 500 has hit the 50 SMA today.  Let's see if it bounces back.  Its definitely been a brutal 5-6 day run here.....

A pull back was well overdue.
A very short lived pullback. Yesterday the economy was in trouble due to delta variant (an excuse to sell, I know) but today all is right with the world and the Market bounces back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
For the members of this group this is noise.  I think my accounts dropped 2%.  Then it rallied back today, much of that so called loss.  I think we'll see a 5% or more pullback if the FED ever acts responsibly.  For now the bubble continues to inflate.

It's a good group to be in  for sure and even if the markets correct or worse most here will still have spoils on the table, but the market is fueled by xcessive liquidity and over confidence that markets can't ever be negative for more than 3 months.   Buyer beware but this setup can't last forever.


pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5187 on: July 21, 2021, 07:42:14 AM »
Lotta froth being skimmed off our investments by the market today!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Indeed!  Just riding this out; S&P 500 has hit the 50 SMA today.  Let's see if it bounces back.  Its definitely been a brutal 5-6 day run here.....

A pull back was well overdue.
A very short lived pullback. Yesterday the economy was in trouble due to delta variant (an excuse to sell, I know) but today all is right with the world and the Market bounces back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
For the members of this group this is noise.  I think my accounts dropped 2%.  Then it rallied back today, much of that so called loss.  I think we'll see a 5% or more pullback if the FED ever acts responsibly.  For now the bubble continues to inflate.

It's a good group to be in  for sure and even if the markets correct or worse most here will still have spoils on the table, but the market is fueled by xcessive liquidity and over confidence that markets can't ever be negative for more than 3 months.   Buyer beware but this setup can't last forever.

Hmmmmm - Now where have I read about something like this happening before.

During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929 after a period of wild speculation during the roaring twenties. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the stock market crash of 1929 were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a struggling agricultural sector and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.

Wild speculation - kinda sorta
low production - Manufacturing in US has been slowly waning for a long time
stocks in great excess of real value - You people have told me this
Low Wages - Well,.....yeh
the proliferation of debt - It's credit card city for many people and lots of loans out there
Struggling Agricultural sector - Seems like farmers are always struggling https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/28/coronavirus-hits-already-struggling-us-farmers-with-drop-in-prices.html
Excess large bank loans that could not be liquidated  - Too Big to fail and badly run banks, that was 2008 and they didn't fix it.

History - https://www.history.com/topics/great-depression/1929-stock-market-crash

You can worry or just enjoy the sunny days of Summer.  Stock Markets show rapidly increasing slopes right now.  Isn't this money thing always just based on trust?




EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5188 on: July 21, 2021, 08:25:23 AM »
What boggles my mind is how all of the smart people on Wall Street and in Government seem to pretend that Quantitative Easing is still necessary.  Any time the market goes down, the Fed simply shoves hundreds of billions of dollars in to banks and the talking heads come up with some story like 'I guess the worry about the Delta variant was overblown'...  But all one needs to do is simply look at the correlation between QE and the market to see what is really going on.  Just like with Enron and their balance sheet shenanigans, everyone thinks you are a genius and that the good times will never end - until they do.

And it's not as though the Fed is being coy, right on their website, they say -
Quote
The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has expanded and contracted over time.  During the 2007 - 08 financial crisis and subsequent recession, total assets increased significantly from $870 billion in August 2007 to $4.5 trillion in early 2015.  Then, reflecting the FOMC's balance sheet normalization program that took place between October 2017 and August 2019, total assets declined to under $3.8 trillion.  Beginning in September 2019, total assets started to increase.

Um... yeah, a bit of an understatement...

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5189 on: July 21, 2021, 08:35:31 AM »
Without the $4T cash, I'm guessing that the S&P would still be around 2500...  but I like free money just as much as the next person.  I'm not saying all of this to complain about having about twice the net worth than I should :)

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5190 on: July 21, 2021, 10:21:48 AM »
Yeah. I like having twice as much as I should too but not at the expense of having half as much I shouldn't next year or whenever. Fed bs manipulatuon is here to stay and will get bigger and bigger as time goes on and becomes less independent.   

I would just like more normal markets, you know the ones that go up and down, sometimes a lot, bc of of macro elements and co specific elements.   

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5191 on: July 21, 2021, 07:41:27 PM »
Sold my Michigan house, found my Bay Area Rental (It’s only $500 more than I’ve ever allocated for housing).  I hope the market corrects until after I get my house equity, I wouldn’t mind buying a large amount of index funds on sale.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5192 on: July 21, 2021, 10:43:32 PM »
Sold my Michigan house, found my Bay Area Rental (It’s only $500 more than I’ve ever allocated for housing).  I hope the market corrects until after I get my house equity, I wouldn’t mind buying a large amount of index funds on sale.
Congrats on finding a place!

FireLane

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5193 on: July 22, 2021, 08:46:46 AM »
Hmmmmm - Now where have I read about something like this happening before.

During the 1920s, the U.S. stock market underwent rapid expansion, reaching its peak in August 1929 after a period of wild speculation during the roaring twenties. By then, production had already declined and unemployment had risen, leaving stocks in great excess of their real value. Among the other causes of the stock market crash of 1929 were low wages, the proliferation of debt, a struggling agricultural sector and an excess of large bank loans that could not be liquidated.

Wild speculation - kinda sorta
low production - Manufacturing in US has been slowly waning for a long time

Pedantic, but this isn't quite true. The U.S. doesn't really make consumer products like appliances or clothes or toys anymore, but our high-tech manufacturing industries are bigger and more profitable than ever. Think pharmaceuticals, aerospace, robotics, medical devices:

https://www.npr.org/2014/10/03/353044962/u-s-manufacturing-a-remembrance-and-a-look-ahead

Quote
So in dollar terms, output is at record levels — worth more than $2 trillion. Back in 1964, remembered as a glorious time in our industrial history, factories generated only about $1.3 trillion in inflation-adjusted dollars.

What's declining is manufacturing employment, because the industry is getting more automated and the low-skilled jobs are moving offshore.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5194 on: July 22, 2021, 09:00:45 AM »
What's declining is manufacturing employment, because the industry is getting more automated and the low-skilled jobs are moving offshore.

Thanks, you beat me to it!

We've also had declining employment in farming yet the US supplies huge amounts of food to the world.   

Declining employment in an industry while simultaneously increasing production is a good thing so long as the displaced workers get as good as, or better, employment in a new line of work.   The reason we have so many people doing so many new things is because we don't need them all on the farms anymore.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5195 on: July 22, 2021, 10:23:35 AM »
What's declining is manufacturing employment, because the industry is getting more automated and the low-skilled jobs are moving offshore.

Thanks, you beat me to it!

We've also had declining employment in farming yet the US supplies huge amounts of food to the world.   

Declining employment in an industry while simultaneously increasing production is a good thing so long as the displaced workers get as good as, or better, employment in a new line of work.   The reason we have so many people doing so many new things is because we don't need them all on the farms anymore.




Old McDonald had a farm.  Now he's selling hamburgers.  ;)

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5196 on: July 22, 2021, 04:22:50 PM »
@Firstlane - The article link was from 2104.  I'm thinking the trends you guys have noted have continued. 

The rich get richer and the poor are unemployed.

It's a good time to be retired.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5197 on: July 22, 2021, 05:39:41 PM »
@Firstlane - The article link was from 2104.  I'm thinking the trends you guys have noted have continued. 

The rich get richer and the poor are unemployed.

It's a good time to be retired.

Sure is. The whole US economy is a big game where poor people are encouraged to spend everything they have and then borrow to spend more.

Rich people then get the reward of increasing dividends and stock prices.

The only way to succeed at the game is to do like the rich people do.. Which is exactly what the folks (with modest wealth*) on this forum are doing.


* Modest is < $10m in my estimation.. Of course that would be an insane number to many people in the World.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5198 on: July 22, 2021, 05:46:10 PM »
What's declining is manufacturing employment, because the industry is getting more automated and the low-skilled jobs are moving offshore.

Thanks, you beat me to it!

We've also had declining employment in farming yet the US supplies huge amounts of food to the world.   

Declining employment in an industry while simultaneously increasing production is a good thing so long as the displaced workers get as good as, or better, employment in a new line of work.   The reason we have so many people doing so many new things is because we don't need them all on the farms anymore.

Our company is constructing an over 100 million dollar expansion.  There are many construction jobs being filled, but maybe 4 or 5 permanent jobs.  Automation is why.
« Last Edit: July 22, 2021, 06:46:21 PM by Bateaux »

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5199 on: July 22, 2021, 06:04:58 PM »
@Firstlane - The article link was from 2104.  I'm thinking the trends you guys have noted have continued. 

The rich get richer and the poor are unemployed.

It's a good time to be retired.

Sure is. The whole US economy is a big game where poor people are encouraged to spend everything they have and then borrow to spend more.

Rich people then get the reward of increasing dividends and stock prices.

The only way to succeed at the game is to do like the rich people do.. Which is exactly what the folks (with modest wealth*) on this forum are doing.


* Modest is < $10m in my estimation.. Of course that would be an insane number to many people in the World.

According to Shnugi, using US Household data from 2019, this is the percentile that various household net worths are at in the USA:

    50th Percentile: $   121,760    <-- Median
    75th Percentile: $   404,100
    95th Percentile: $ 2,598,400
    99th Percentile: $11,121,000


So, frankly, claiming that someone who's just a tad shy of being in the 99th percentile -- just the 98.9th percentile instead -- is "modest" wealth is kinda silly.

Anyone with a net worth of $10,000,000 is very rich.     They may not be ultra-rich like Bezos or Buffett but they are very rich.

We're at $3,100,000 and that puts us in the 95.7th percentile.  That's solidly rich.