Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 1255866 times)

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6650 on: April 05, 2023, 08:26:18 PM »
Man, Iím disappointed in all of you on this thread that have either gone back to work or are still working. LOL.

I'm studiously doing my part to not go back to work.

I've avoided being actively involved in several business opportunities.   Turned another one down in the last month.

I've written 200 pages for a story cycle since Halloween of last year.   Having a blast doing that!   When the creative juices dry up on this story cycle I'll start back up on the screen play I started a year ago.  (I set that aside when we took in a Ukrainian refugee last spring.)

I've learned a new art form, printmaking since last summer.   I now have a printmaking studio set up at my home. :)  I'm learning new ways of etching or marking metal so I can incorporate them into my enameling work.
Plus the printmaking is fun.

I've made a number of art pieces in the last year and they are getting better and better. 



2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6651 on: April 06, 2023, 04:22:17 AM »
I've learned a new art form, printmaking since last summer.   I now have a printmaking studio set up at my home. :)  I'm learning new ways of etching or marking metal so I can incorporate them into my enameling work.
Plus the printmaking is fun.

I've made a number of art pieces in the last year and they are getting better and better.

That sample your posted looks gorgeous! I'd say that's great progress.

couponvan

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6652 on: April 06, 2023, 07:28:13 AM »
I wish I had art skills!  That sample is gorgeous.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6653 on: April 06, 2023, 07:38:22 AM »
I wish I had art skills!  That sample is gorgeous.

I have no natural talent.  I just have persistence.

Anyone with the persistence to reach FI can do as well as I am with art.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6654 on: April 06, 2023, 07:42:34 AM »
Color version.   Took me many, many, many tries to get the colors, inking, and carving (mostly) right.

I'll do another carving based on what I learned on this one, which was a whole lot.

rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6655 on: April 06, 2023, 09:28:52 AM »
A reminder for all of us working, myself includedÖ


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Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6656 on: April 06, 2023, 04:43:16 PM »
@BeanCounter - I can relate to some of your challenges, though my path is a little different. I was aiming to FIRE at $2M, then $2.5M, thenÖ well shortly we passed $3.5M and I couldnít quite pull the trigger, but a different work opportunity presented itself, and now Iím a year into that. Iím enjoying it and working on keeping even keel and not taking on the stress. Since we are FIRE, though, and Iím choosing to work, Iím looking at the spending differently.

Weíre still maxing out retirement accounts and driving old cars and not buying a vacation home, but that spendy trip we want to take? Weíre taking it. Kids have sports out of town and itís easier to spend the night? Get the hotel (or stay at sisterís house and buy them dinner). We still canít spend all of our money, though, so thereís surplus. I have a friend that has brought us some equity opportunities in businesses, so weíve shoveled some money into those. One is doing fantastic so far, the next is just getting started but shows promise. These are chunks of money that I couldnít have imagined parting with for this even 5 years ago, but now Iím going into these knowing full well I may never see that money againÖ or I may get a 10x return over 5 years. And 10x would be kinda cool.

Anyway, FIRE means you have choices and can take risks or make life easier or just not stress about how youíre going to cover regular expenses after you get fired for giving the honest answer your boss doesnít want to hear. (And guess what, if sheís any kind of a decent leader and human being, she wants honesty, even if it hurtsÖ though it itís too painful you might consider when and how and in front of whom you deliver it.) My point is that you, and everyone else in this club, has a choice, and simply having they choice makes it easier to absorb the stresses youíre willing to absorb, and to say no to those you wonít accept.  Whether youíre working or not.

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6657 on: April 06, 2023, 07:04:41 PM »
Wow, impressive @SwordGuy !!   So awesome to be able to exercise the creative side of the brain!

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6658 on: April 09, 2023, 10:23:56 AM »
Taking more steps towards retirement. Purchased a new Honda Pilot yesterday.  We'll pick it up in Florida in a week. Having a Florida home and Florida registered vehicle helps expedite Florida residence.  Probably will be moving in 2024.  Haven't figured out what if anything we'll do with the Louisiana property. Our grown children have no plans for moving.  Maybe we can strongarm them into paying some rent. I'm looking forward to spending time at the Florida house next weekend.  Haven't been there in three months. In five weeks I start the Appalachian Trail.  Happy Easter to you all.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6659 on: April 10, 2023, 08:50:50 AM »
Taking more steps towards retirement. Purchased a new Honda Pilot yesterday.  We'll pick it up in Florida in a week. Having a Florida home and Florida registered vehicle helps expedite Florida residence.  Probably will be moving in 2024.  Haven't figured out what if anything we'll do with the Louisiana property. Our grown children have no plans for moving.  Maybe we can strongarm them into paying some rent. I'm looking forward to spending time at the Florida house next weekend.  Haven't been there in three months. In five weeks I start the Appalachian Trail.  Happy Easter to you all.

I hope you can report from the trail.  it would be interesting.

couponvan

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6660 on: April 10, 2023, 01:32:18 PM »
Leaving your adult kids in the LA house sounds like what a lot of parents end up doing. Good luck collecting rent!

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6661 on: April 12, 2023, 08:58:18 PM »
Leaving your adult kids in the LA house sounds like what a lot of parents end up doing. Good luck collecting rent!

The little shits know our financial status.  Waiting for our death.  I'll show them!  I'll be moving further forward on aircraft and higher up on cruise ships!

farmecologist

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6662 on: April 13, 2023, 08:57:48 AM »
Leaving your adult kids in the LA house sounds like what a lot of parents end up doing. Good luck collecting rent!

The little shits know our financial status.  Waiting for our death.  I'll show them!  I'll be moving further forward on aircraft and higher up on cruise ships!

First rule of MMM club - Never let the family know your financial status.  Haha...easier said than done, for sure!   Truthfully though, stealth wealth is the way for us.


2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6663 on: April 18, 2023, 04:08:26 PM »
According to this survey, there are 340,000 HNWI (High Net Worth Individuals) in NY City. Their definition of HNWI is:

Quote
For our purposes Ďwealthí refers to Ďinvestable wealthí, which includes property, cash, and listed company holdings

This number seems ridiculously low - since there are so many people with high salaries in the area, a million dollars seems like a very low threshold to designate someone as HNWI.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6664 on: April 18, 2023, 07:08:13 PM »
So what is a HNWI worth???????

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6665 on: April 19, 2023, 03:37:10 AM »
So what is a HNWI worth???????

Oops I left out that part :-) They define a HNWI as a persons with over one million dollars (including property)

DQYDJ says that a million dollars net worth including home equity puts you in the 88th percentile which is over 15.3 million households.

ATtiny85

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6666 on: April 19, 2023, 05:36:01 AM »
Somewhat weird methodology. They track 150,000 folks as part of the ďserviceĒ they provide (????), focusing on the $10M and up. Then they rely on that database to generate the survey results, and looks at home prices. The error bars have to be several million people wideÖ

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6667 on: April 19, 2023, 06:35:33 AM »
So what is a HNWI worth???????

Oops I left out that part :-) They define a HNWI as a persons with over one million dollars (including property)

DQYDJ says that a million dollars net worth including home equity puts you in the 88th percentile which is over 15.3 million households.

Consistent with 2019 data on https://personalfinancedata.com/networth-percentile-calculator/?min_age=&max_age=&networth=1000000#results

jeroly

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6668 on: April 19, 2023, 07:28:49 AM »
So what is a HNWI worth???????

Oops I left out that part :-) They define a HNWI as a persons with over one million dollars (including property)

DQYDJ says that a million dollars net worth including home equity puts you in the 88th percentile which is over 15.3 million households.
They exclude personal residence(s), thoughÖ itís only investable assets, so not counting home equity.

rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6669 on: April 21, 2023, 07:58:42 AM »
So I got notified yesterday of my first direct inheritance in my life. Itís from my first boss out of college, very nice, gregarious guy. Never married or had kids. He gave me my break out of college. The past decade we kept in touch on social media but not much beyond that.

But here is where it gets interesting. The bank calls me yesterday to notify me Iíve been named, and to get the funds I have to fill out paper work, get it notarized, and return with a copy of my drivers license. And then he says the amount will be under $500, since the checking account has over 30 beneficiaries named and has about $14k in it. And the bank wonít release the funds until all beneficiaries have return the required paper work in proper order.

So obviously I am thankful this old boss remembered me, but I am amazed he named so many beneficiaries. And I donít want to be the one that holds up this process so Iíll be getting this done ASAP. We shall see how prompt this entire bunch is.

The bank must silently be annoyed, but itís their job. My spouse and I will have a nice dinner and bottle of wine in his memory.

I doubt my old boss thought or knew the process would be this complicated. Or maybe he did who knows. But I donít think Iíll be naming so many beneficiaries on any of my accounts!


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couponvan

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6670 on: April 21, 2023, 08:37:16 AM »
So I got notified yesterday of my first direct inheritance in my life. Itís from my first boss out of college, very nice, gregarious guy. Never married or had kids. He gave me my break out of college. The past decade we kept in touch on social media but not much beyond that.

But here is where it gets interesting. The bank calls me yesterday to notify me Iíve been named, and to get the funds I have to fill out paper work, get it notarized, and return with a copy of my drivers license. And then he says the amount will be under $500, since the checking account has over 30 beneficiaries named and has about $14k in it. And the bank wonít release the funds until all beneficiaries have return the required paper work in proper order.

So obviously I am thankful this old boss remembered me, but I am amazed he named so many beneficiaries. And I donít want to be the one that holds up this process so Iíll be getting this done ASAP. We shall see how prompt this entire bunch is.

The bank must silently be annoyed, but itís their job. My spouse and I will have a nice dinner and bottle of wine in his memory.

I doubt my old boss thought or knew the process would be this complicated. Or maybe he did who knows. But I donít think Iíll be naming so many beneficiaries on any of my accounts!


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Interesting - I had an uncle that was a vault manager at a bank (olden days, right?) He was a sweet guy and very friendly, but not materialistic at all.  There were 4-5 bank clients that left him their money and safe-deposit assets because they had no family. He was the only person who was nice to them and chatted them up on the regular.  Can you imagine?  When he passed, his children were pretty surprised at his estate amount.  It still wasn't millions, but it wasn't $0 either!

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6671 on: April 22, 2023, 06:35:34 AM »
Very cool @rmorris50 -- even though the amount is small, you must have held a special place in their memory/heart.  Also can't help but feel a little sad for your former boss, who sounds like he may have been somewhat lonely in the end. 

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6672 on: May 03, 2023, 07:08:18 PM »
My company just posted a job for my replacement's, replacement.  Looks like they are giving full consideration to the person I and other coworkers recommended.  I've given my replacement several training sessions already.  Since I've provided them with an end date, they have been surprisingly proactive.  Still feels strange watching a three decade career sunset.  Time to let a new generation take the reins.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2023, 11:00:16 PM by Bateaux »

ATtiny85

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6673 on: May 04, 2023, 08:23:20 AM »
My company just posted a job for my replacement's, replacement.  Looks like they are giving full consideration to the person I and other coworkers recommended.  I've given my replacement several training sessions already.  Since I've provided them with an end date, they have been surprisingly proactive.  Still feels strange watching a three decade career sunset.  Time to let a new generation take the reins.

You'll be on a remote stretch of the AT and think "oops, forgot one thing to tell them..." and then the next step forget all about it. Probably repeat four or five times in the first weeks, then you'll be fully weaned off.

It's great that they are taking proactive steps.

baludon

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6674 on: May 04, 2023, 10:05:39 AM »
Work didn't look for my replacement until a month before I retired earlier this year.  I haven't thought about how my office would deal with being short staffed.  Actually, I haven't thought about work since I retired.  Such a nice feeling.

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6675 on: May 09, 2023, 05:06:22 PM »
Warning: depressing postÖ..

After being a very active member of the [targeted] FIRE classes of 2018 and 2019 and mildly active in 2020, somehow after all these years Iím still working and still not sure when Iíll FIRE. But I still really want to as I donít love my job, far from it.

Over the past 5 years our net worth has continued to grow quickly so no excuses there. Even if we are still a little shy of peak net worth in March 2022, after having a bad 2022 financially, we are in the beyond category of this thread.

So where has it all gone wrong??? A couple of stupid decisions has crippled our flexibility.

Selling our expensive inner city house and buying something cheaper was always a part of our FIRE plan.

Stupid decision 1: we bought a couple of acres of land rather than a new house. So now we canít sell our inner city home until we build something on the acreage.
Stupid decision 2: we decided to build a fairly massive house on the land, far beyond our requirements. This was driven by a fear of undercapitalising, as all the neighbouring properties have big houses too,

We are now trying to get the new house built, but suffering some extended regulatory approval delays. So we are stuck with vacant land that is creating no value. Construction should finally start in the next month or 2 and we will end up with a house that is far more expensive than we should be having.

Instead of being FIRED we now find ourselves quite leveraged with 2 expensive, non income producing properties, rather than 1 cheap home.

We are nervous to FIRE until the new place is built and we can sell our current home so that we have investable cash rather than excessive debt servicing costs. We also donít want to move home twice if avoidable.

I feel a bit silly to have put ourselves in this position and as much as we have considered changing course and stopping the planned build and selling the land, we just feel that ultimately we will be far better off suffering through the bad deck on making for the next 18 months or so until the build is complete and we can finally sell our inner city home and finally FIRE, some 6 years after the original target.

In the past 5 years I have aged a lot. It is yet to be seen whether the additional net worth we have accumulated since 2018 will make working the past 5 years a good or bad call.


Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6676 on: May 09, 2023, 08:20:17 PM »
@itchyfeet why do you not want to move twice.  Moving is a pain, but it also forces one to confront how much crap they have in their lives.  Iíve moved every 4-5 years all my adult life.  Iím actually thankful for it.  Itís forced me to really evaluate what I want in a home.  The way you are talking about your future house makes me wonder if you are going to be disappointed with it 6 months after you move in because it doesnít sound like what you actually want.  Iíd say stop and rethink the whole thing.

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6677 on: May 09, 2023, 09:03:29 PM »
We just moved back from Dubai to Australia and moved back into our old house, well 2 years ago now. We have settled back in and DW has a job that is a short walk from our house. We may end up FIREing, selling our house, putting everything back bro Storage and traveling for a bit until our new place is built. Either that or just work until the new house is built.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6678 on: May 10, 2023, 12:58:45 AM »
fi(RE) isn't for everyone. That's ok.

couponvan

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6679 on: May 12, 2023, 05:37:58 AM »
We just moved back from Dubai to Australia and moved back into our old house, well 2 years ago now. We have settled back in and DW has a job that is a short walk from our house. We may end up FIREing, selling our house, putting everything back bro Storage and traveling for a bit until our new place is built. Either that or just work until the new house is built.
I could hive written this except we moved from Chicago to VA and didnít keep our old house. We probably should have-it would be paid for by now. The income makes the builders happy. We are building multi-family housing, but I am not sure we want to be landlords. Or live with family.

Simpli-Fi

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6680 on: May 14, 2023, 10:13:35 AM »
Warning: depressing postÖ..

Stupid decision 2: we decided to build a fairly massive house on the land, far beyond our requirements. This was driven by a fear of undercapitalising, as all the neighbouring properties have big houses
I got caught up in this when we built a houseÖworst financial decision Iíve made in my life.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6681 on: May 14, 2023, 06:02:22 PM »
We built a house. It was twice the size of our previous house. Then we had a bonus baby, and while the house is great, I wouldnít be disappointed if it was bigger in a couple areas. Not sure if we will stay in it forever, but if we do, we designed it so it will function like a smaller house once the kids have moved on.

That said, itís really easy to get trapped in building bigger or more expensive finishes or whatever. Once we were done and kids and dogs started damaging things, I wish we had gone a little lower grade in some areas, and then re-decorate when the kids are older (or gone). That and we should have built a bigger garage. Much, much bigger garage. In fact, a bigger garage (room to park + room for bikes and stuff + workshop space), Iíd take back anything about needing more living space.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6682 on: May 15, 2023, 06:49:12 AM »
We built a house. It was twice the size of our previous house. Then we had a bonus baby, and while the house is great, I wouldnít be disappointed if it was bigger in a couple areas. Not sure if we will stay in it forever, but if we do, we designed it so it will function like a smaller house once the kids have moved on.

That said, itís really easy to get trapped in building bigger or more expensive finishes or whatever. Once we were done and kids and dogs started damaging things, I wish we had gone a little lower grade in some areas, and then re-decorate when the kids are older (or gone). That and we should have built a bigger garage. Much, much bigger garage. In fact, a bigger garage (room to park + room for bikes and stuff + workshop space), Iíd take back anything about needing more living space.

I no it's counter MMM, but I love our big house. We've lived in our starter house since 1992.  It's only about 2000 square feet.  It's always been cramped.  Our Florida home is 4000 square feet and I absolutely love it.  It's open, airy and bright.  My wife loves it as well and can entertain guests comfortably.  We bought it cheaper than we can downsize to. It's the difference between lean-FIRE and fat-FIRE.  We did spend more time working than many that want less.  I'm envious sometimes of the true MMM minimalists amount us. 
Wednesday I start the Appalachian Trail and of this moment, I never have to work another day if I choose. I have six weeks of backpacking to think.  I'll likely work a few weeks once I come back in July.  I'll lose dental insurance upon retirement and need a some work done.  Health insurance is locked in fortunately from this moment forward as well a my pension.  Three decades of work coming to a close has a great feeling.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6683 on: May 17, 2023, 06:28:37 AM »
Overall, we are not frugal by MMM standards but one area where we have not spent much is housing. We have lived in the same 2,500  sq ft house for over 25 years which we have renovated gradually over the years. Thats the only house we have ever owned. Many of our friends have McMansions as well as vacation homes but, somehow, we have never felt the need to compete with them. 

I'm writing this sitting in my nicely renovated basement study with a comfy armchair and a wall of books. On the other side of the basement is my workshop and model train room. Totally Hygge ☺️

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6684 on: May 17, 2023, 07:20:56 AM »
I'm hearing rumblings and seeing a definite slowdown in FIRE enthusiasm as this choppy market churns along.  Surprising to me how quickly things evaporated, this has always been a marathon and not a sprint.  I think the newer generation had only seen 10%+ gains and new highs every year.  It's much easier to imagine ER in your 30's when that dollar saved turns in to two dollars then four...  It's also easier to imagine expenses staying low indefinitely when inflation is zero and borrowing money for a house carries a sub-3% rate.  That long period of zero fed fund rates and quantitative easing put FIRE on noob mode.

Folks in this thread probably won't notice if our 2% or lower SWR drift up to 3% for the same quality of life (due to a portfolio decline and/or inflation on expenses), it's hardly cause for sleepless nights.  So I'm envisioning a FIRE future consisting of folks like Pete who have 'more than enough' and are enjoying having been ahead of the game when the slowdown hit vs. those on the hunt resigning themselves that there might be more OMY's in their future.  Reminds me of 2002 - 2005, except that period started off with a real crash for me (DotCom stock bloodbath) vs. the comparative whimper that was the 2022 'crash'...

dividendman

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6685 on: May 17, 2023, 08:57:12 AM »
I'm hearing rumblings and seeing a definite slowdown in FIRE enthusiasm as this choppy market churns along.  Surprising to me how quickly things evaporated, this has always been a marathon and not a sprint.  I think the newer generation had only seen 10%+ gains and new highs every year.  It's much easier to imagine ER in your 30's when that dollar saved turns in to two dollars then four...  It's also easier to imagine expenses staying low indefinitely when inflation is zero and borrowing money for a house carries a sub-3% rate.  That long period of zero fed fund rates and quantitative easing put FIRE on noob mode.

Folks in this thread probably won't notice if our 2% or lower SWR drift up to 3% for the same quality of life (due to a portfolio decline and/or inflation on expenses), it's hardly cause for sleepless nights.  So I'm envisioning a FIRE future consisting of folks like Pete who have 'more than enough' and are enjoying having been ahead of the game when the slowdown hit vs. those on the hunt resigning themselves that there might be more OMY's in their future.  Reminds me of 2002 - 2005, except that period started off with a real crash for me (DotCom stock bloodbath) vs. the comparative whimper that was the 2022 'crash'...

Hopefully these people understand that sideways/choppy markets are an excellent place to be in when you're accumulating investments!

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6686 on: May 17, 2023, 09:09:53 AM »
...

Hopefully these people understand that sideways/choppy markets are an excellent place to be in when you're accumulating investments!

100%.  I had my 401k investments on autopilot and just kept chugging along.  Started to get really excited about FIRE again around 2007 .... LOL

farmecologist

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6687 on: May 17, 2023, 02:29:14 PM »
I'm hearing rumblings and seeing a definite slowdown in FIRE enthusiasm as this choppy market churns along.  Surprising to me how quickly things evaporated, this has always been a marathon and not a sprint.  I think the newer generation had only seen 10%+ gains and new highs every year.  It's much easier to imagine ER in your 30's when that dollar saved turns in to two dollars then four...  It's also easier to imagine expenses staying low indefinitely when inflation is zero and borrowing money for a house carries a sub-3% rate.  That long period of zero fed fund rates and quantitative easing put FIRE on noob mode.

Folks in this thread probably won't notice if our 2% or lower SWR drift up to 3% for the same quality of life (due to a portfolio decline and/or inflation on expenses), it's hardly cause for sleepless nights.  So I'm envisioning a FIRE future consisting of folks like Pete who have 'more than enough' and are enjoying having been ahead of the game when the slowdown hit vs. those on the hunt resigning themselves that there might be more OMY's in their future.  Reminds me of 2002 - 2005, except that period started off with a real crash for me (DotCom stock bloodbath) vs. the comparative whimper that was the 2022 'crash'...

Absolutely.  The "younger folks" that didn't experience the 2008-2009 crash with any skin in the game literally seemed to think that "stocks always go up".  I remember having quite a few conversations here and elsewhere trying to explain that they don't...but that fell on deaf ears and many insisted that they "knew better".  On top of that, many of these same "younger folks" had FIRE plans that were very, VERY optimistic.   And guess what?  Much of that optimism came crashing down.  Guess every generation has to learn the hard way.


Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6688 on: May 17, 2023, 04:18:57 PM »
In a way, beginning to invest in 2000 just before the crash was good for me.  I learned crashes when accumulating are great.  Stocks on sale.  Im seeing how much in the same.  Yeah Iím disappointed after a brief visit to 7 figures over a year my TSP is still in the 900s but I know at some point there will be a sharp refund.  The last few years my thoughts on the market, the higher it goes, the more it can fall before I need to actually make adjustments to my plan.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6689 on: May 17, 2023, 06:53:44 PM »
I'm hearing rumblings and seeing a definite slowdown in FIRE enthusiasm as this choppy market churns along.  Surprising to me how quickly things evaporated, this has always been a marathon and not a sprint.  I think the newer generation had only seen 10%+ gains and new highs every year.  It's much easier to imagine ER in your 30's when that dollar saved turns in to two dollars then four...  It's also easier to imagine expenses staying low indefinitely when inflation is zero and borrowing money for a house carries a sub-3% rate.  That long period of zero fed fund rates and quantitative easing put FIRE on noob mode.

Folks in this thread probably won't notice if our 2% or lower SWR drift up to 3% for the same quality of life (due to a portfolio decline and/or inflation on expenses), it's hardly cause for sleepless nights.  So I'm envisioning a FIRE future consisting of folks like Pete who have 'more than enough' and are enjoying having been ahead of the game when the slowdown hit vs. those on the hunt resigning themselves that there might be more OMY's in their future.  Reminds me of 2002 - 2005, except that period started off with a real crash for me (DotCom stock bloodbath) vs. the comparative whimper that was the 2022 'crash'...

Absolutely.  The "younger folks" that didn't experience the 2008-2009 crash with any skin in the game literally seemed to think that "stocks always go up".  I remember having quite a few conversations here and elsewhere trying to explain that they don't...but that fell on deaf ears and many insisted that they "knew better".  On top of that, many of these same "younger folks" had FIRE plans that were very, VERY optimistic.   And guess what?  Much of that optimism came crashing down.  Guess every generation has to learn the hard way.

I guess the same thing could be said for the 1987 crash and the dot com bubble.  Back in those days, retirement was far from my mind.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6690 on: May 17, 2023, 08:16:51 PM »
I guess the same thing could be said for the 1987 crash and the dot com bubble.  Back in those days, retirement was far from my mind.

Interestingly, I don't think anyone was talking about retiring in their 20's or 30's during the dotcom bubble, although people were making crazy gains and salaries.  I personally considered switching from engineering into investment banking since all my stock picks were going straight up...  fortunately I never followed through, although I did get accepted in to an Ivy program and had the cash ready.  Those were exciting times, but the enthusiasm seemed more toward chasing the next Big Thing (Napster, Broadcom, Yahoo!) vs. the ER badge of honor that got popular this time around.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6691 on: May 18, 2023, 08:09:02 AM »
I'm hearing rumblings and seeing a definite slowdown in FIRE enthusiasm as this choppy market churns along.  Surprising to me how quickly things evaporated, this has always been a marathon and not a sprint.  I think the newer generation had only seen 10%+ gains and new highs every year.  It's much easier to imagine ER in your 30's when that dollar saved turns in to two dollars then four...  It's also easier to imagine expenses staying low indefinitely when inflation is zero and borrowing money for a house carries a sub-3% rate.  That long period of zero fed fund rates and quantitative easing put FIRE on noob mode.

Folks in this thread probably won't notice if our 2% or lower SWR drift up to 3% for the same quality of life (due to a portfolio decline and/or inflation on expenses), it's hardly cause for sleepless nights.  So I'm envisioning a FIRE future consisting of folks like Pete who have 'more than enough' and are enjoying having been ahead of the game when the slowdown hit vs. those on the hunt resigning themselves that there might be more OMY's in their future.  Reminds me of 2002 - 2005, except that period started off with a real crash for me (DotCom stock bloodbath) vs. the comparative whimper that was the 2022 'crash'...

Absolutely.  The "younger folks" that didn't experience the 2008-2009 crash with any skin in the game literally seemed to think that "stocks always go up".  I remember having quite a few conversations here and elsewhere trying to explain that they don't...but that fell on deaf ears and many insisted that they "knew better".  On top of that, many of these same "younger folks" had FIRE plans that were very, VERY optimistic.   And guess what?  Much of that optimism came crashing down.  Guess every generation has to learn the hard way.

I guess the same thing could be said for the 1987 crash and the dot com bubble.  Back in those days, retirement was far from my mind.

I was still in college during the 1987 crash but I remember following the news very closely. There does not seem to be any good explanation even today about that crash. I was working during the 2000 and 2008 crashes so I experienced them first hand. The main impact these crashes had was that we (still) keep way more in readily accessible funds (savings and money market accounts) than most people. On the other hand, I never stopped our automatic investments even in the dark days of 2008-2010, which is one of the factors that helped me retire early.


Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6692 on: May 18, 2023, 08:20:19 AM »
I guess the same thing could be said for the 1987 crash and the dot com bubble.  Back in those days, retirement was far from my mind.

Interestingly, I don't think anyone was talking about retiring in their 20's or 30's during the dotcom bubble, although people were making crazy gains and salaries.  I personally considered switching from engineering into investment banking since all my stock picks were going straight up...  fortunately I never followed through, although I did get accepted in to an Ivy program and had the cash ready.  Those were exciting times, but the enthusiasm seemed more toward chasing the next Big Thing (Napster, Broadcom, Yahoo!) vs. the ER badge of honor that got popular this time around.

And I wear that badge with a great deal of satisfaction.. Until I'm made an offer I can't refuse at least..:)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6693 on: May 18, 2023, 08:51:27 AM »
I guess the same thing could be said for the 1987 crash and the dot com bubble.  Back in those days, retirement was far from my mind.

Interestingly, I don't think anyone was talking about retiring in their 20's or 30's during the dotcom bubble, although people were making crazy gains and salaries.  I personally considered switching from engineering into investment banking since all my stock picks were going straight up...  fortunately I never followed through, although I did get accepted in to an Ivy program and had the cash ready.  Those were exciting times, but the enthusiasm seemed more toward chasing the next Big Thing (Napster, Broadcom, Yahoo!) vs. the ER badge of honor that got popular this time around.

And I wear that badge with a great deal of satisfaction.. Until I'm made an offer I can't refuse at least..:)

Exflyboy - more like Exretireboy!

fredbear

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6694 on: May 18, 2023, 11:32:17 AM »
...

I was still in college during the 1987 crash but I remember following the news very closely. There does not seem to be any good explanation even today about that crash. ...
I was in Cataract Canyon when that one hit.  Found out about it talking to a bush pilot on the dirt strip near Hite UT.  I had been queasy about prices for a while and had gone to cash about 2 months before.  Any claims to intelligence or prescience have to be declined, since I then entered the classic period of abulia: sitting 100% in cash, should I get back in now (it had traded back up very quickly), or should I wait?  The answer - not taken - was to have gotten back in right away.  The answer - taken - was to ditz around and miss a couple years of advances.

As I recall, the market then was an interwoven mass of program trading, and when a particular trade (traced eventually to a youthful wunderkind, I believe) dropped below the trigger point, there was an auto-sale.  All the other program-trade computers were on the alert and all had pretty much the same triggers as to price and volume, so that trade knocked the keystone from the arch.  The computers all began frenziedly (if a computer can be said to be subject to frenzy) dumping shares to minimize losses, thus maximizing losses.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6695 on: May 18, 2023, 04:13:23 PM »
...

I was still in college during the 1987 crash but I remember following the news very closely. There does not seem to be any good explanation even today about that crash. ...
I was in Cataract Canyon when that one hit.  Found out about it talking to a bush pilot on the dirt strip near Hite UT.  I had been queasy about prices for a while and had gone to cash about 2 months before.  Any claims to intelligence or prescience have to be declined, since I then entered the classic period of abulia: sitting 100% in cash, should I get back in now (it had traded back up very quickly), or should I wait?  The answer - not taken - was to have gotten back in right away.  The answer - taken - was to ditz around and miss a couple years of advances.

As I recall, the market then was an interwoven mass of program trading, and when a particular trade (traced eventually to a youthful wunderkind, I believe) dropped below the trigger point, there was an auto-sale.  All the other program-trade computers were on the alert and all had pretty much the same triggers as to price and volume, so that trade knocked the keystone from the arch.  The computers all began frenziedly (if a computer can be said to be subject to frenzy) dumping shares to minimize losses, thus maximizing losses.

One interesting thing to note is that back then it was called "program driven trading" because much of the actual trading happened on the floor of the NYSE at the various posts. So that had the effect of slowing the trades. Now with the NYSE completely automated (located in a warehouse in Mahwah, NJ) the effect of such cascading triggered  trading would be much worse - which is why circuit breakers were added after the 1987 crash.

ATtiny85

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6696 on: May 22, 2023, 05:20:22 PM »
In a way, beginning to invest in 2000 just before the crash was good for me.  I learned crashes when accumulating are great.  Stocks on sale.  Im seeing how much in the same.  Yeah Iím disappointed after a brief visit to 7 figures over a year my TSP is still in the 900s but I know at some point there will be a sharp refund.  The last few years my thoughts on the market, the higher it goes, the more it can fall before I need to actually make adjustments to my plan.

Yeah, hopefully a lot of newer folks learned a baby lesson with the covid blip, and can see how a couple sideways years can really propel things. Between that and understanding that buying all the way down and all the up, no matter what, is as close to foolproof as possible. Even most Japan only investors have done OK. Of course those that put a bunch of money in from the mid eighties on have had a rough go of it, but anyone who started in the last 25 years has done OK, not great, but OK. Especially if they diversified (like they should have been doing even without the crash.)

I read the ďtreading waterĒ thread to see how others are doing, and enjoy the commiseration. Itís a little annoying to pile every cent possible into accounts and still be trailing Jan 2022 numbers, but knowing that even a small rise, like maybe 5% above those SP500 (plus the rest of the markets) highs, will put our accounts at a crazy level since we have been buying at 2020 and 2021 prices.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6697 on: May 23, 2023, 05:34:32 AM »
Time has slowed to the pace of my feet.  I'm at AT mile 495 and I started at mile 428 last Wednesday.  I took a zero mile day in Damascus, Virginia for the Trail Days festival.  I'm currently camped at the base of Mount Rogers.  Today I'll run up and tag it's summit as Virginia's high point.  Dreaming of a motel night in a few days to get cleaned up and eat Mexican food.
My nice phone I bought for the trip blew up and I'm on a $49.99 burner phone from the dollar store.  It works pretty good actually.  I downloaded Mint for some stupid reason.  Almost most at an all time high.  So no worries about money.  I'm out here living like a hermit anyway.  Red Roof Inn is $63 dollars.  I've just got to get to it.
The mountains are just as tough regardless of your financial status.  Younger people blow right by you up the hills.  They have the true treasure, vitality.  Time for me to break camp and hike.  It's a cold morning but I've got to get going.

Dancin'Dog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6698 on: May 23, 2023, 06:15:53 AM »
Time has slowed to the pace of my feet.  I'm at AT mile 495 and I started at mile 428 last Wednesday.  I took a zero mile day in Damascus, Virginia for the Trail Days festival.  I'm currently camped at the base of Mount Rogers.  Today I'll run up and tag it's summit as Virginia's high point.  Dreaming of a motel night in a few days to get cleaned up and eat Mexican food.
My nice phone I bought for the trip blew up and I'm on a $49.99 burner phone from the dollar store.  It works pretty good actually.  I downloaded Mint for some stupid reason.  Almost most at an all time high.  So no worries about money.  I'm out here living like a hermit anyway.  Red Roof Inn is $63 dollars.  I've just got to get to it.
The mountains are just as tough regardless of your financial status.  Younger people blow right by you up the hills.  They have the true treasure, vitality.  Time for me to break camp and hike.  It's a cold morning but I've got to get going.


That's a beautiful area.  We lived nearby, in NC, for about 20 years.  It was a great place to live and raise our daughter.  We still have the place up there, but DW wanted to leave the harsh Winters.  Watch out for bears, especially the ones with cubs. 


Have you already hiked the Southern sections of the AT?  I've never hiked it, but have crisscrossed it a lot riding my dual-sport motorcycle between Roan Mtn. & Damascus. 


Are you sleeping in a tent or hammock camping?  Have you met any interesting characters? 

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #6699 on: May 23, 2023, 07:51:37 AM »
It's the weight of all the life lessons you've learned that impact your speed. Slow and steady will get you there @Bateaux .