Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 975531 times)

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5950 on: February 19, 2022, 06:51:39 AM »
... Lost a little over the last few months?  Ah..no biggy.  Still got enough to be a millionaire.

That's such a soothing thought, isn't it?!

Our stocks are down about $60k since the year started.   Meh.   It's just normal market behavior.   

On the plus side:
  • rents are going up
  • rental property values are up
  • farm yields are up
  • we upped our shares on $199k of the Vanguard S&P 500 fund by 10% (sheer dumb luck)
  • we upped our shares on $96k of the Vanguard S&P 500 fund by 0.75% (mostly dumb luck)
  • a mortgage note we hold has payments starting to come due
  • our trucking company startup survived its first year and turned a profit
  • learning about NUA will save me a bunch of taxes in the future.

I'm in the process of closing out the slew of old 401Ks into 2 IRAs and a brokerage account.  So sometimes the positions in the 401K have to be liquidated and repurchased in the new IRA.  That's how I ended up with those extra S&P 500 shares.   So when prices go up again, we'll be even better off.

Company stock will be pulled out into the brokerage acct to take advantage of the NUA provision.   I'll take a small hit up front to pay a lower tax rate on a lot larger balance.

We have no debt.   Passive income is up.   We have lots of different income streams, many of which are uncorrelated with others.

Life is good.

A smart person once told me that if you have your health, that this is probably the greatest riches you can have.  All else will pale to insignificance.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5951 on: February 19, 2022, 01:22:13 PM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation. 

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5952 on: February 21, 2022, 04:34:37 PM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5953 on: February 21, 2022, 06:43:47 PM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)

For me, I think I've resigned myself to 2022 being a year of just keeping the nose to the grindstone and contributing what I can to the stache, hoping that I'm buying in at attractive long-term valuations during the course of the year.  In terms of damage, I will admit that I did take a sneak peek and figure it would still require another 8-10% drop in the market to cause me to need to turn in my membership card to this thread :-). 

Meantime, in planning for a summer vacation -- I can feel the inflation impact for sure....surprised at the estimated price tag.  Biggest contributor -- airfare and rental car.  Its a struggle to find a rental car for a week for anything significantly less than $1,000.  I think I did a bit better than that, but still.....its a far cry from the bygone era of $40-50 per day for a nice car/suv!  Anyone else experiencing sticker shock with vacation planning?   Maybe I just chose the unlucky location....

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5954 on: February 21, 2022, 08:45:21 PM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)

For me, I think I've resigned myself to 2022 being a year of just keeping the nose to the grindstone and contributing what I can to the stache, hoping that I'm buying in at attractive long-term valuations during the course of the year.  In terms of damage, I will admit that I did take a sneak peek and figure it would still require another 8-10% drop in the market to cause me to need to turn in my membership card to this thread :-). 

Meantime, in planning for a summer vacation -- I can feel the inflation impact for sure....surprised at the estimated price tag.  Biggest contributor -- airfare and rental car.  Its a struggle to find a rental car for a week for anything significantly less than $1,000.  I think I did a bit better than that, but still.....its a far cry from the bygone era of $40-50 per day for a nice car/suv!  Anyone else experiencing sticker shock with vacation planning?   Maybe I just chose the unlucky location....

We're making plans for 2022 vacations.   March were headed to Chicago for a few days.  Flights weren't too bad, plan to drive some of the trips.  April will be a Florida house trip, hopefully some fun outdoor stuff, shouldn't be expensive.   June will be a Fort Lauderdale, Florida beach trip for a week.  Already booked the condo.  After that, drive to the west coast of Florida for a few days at the house.  September we've booked a condo just outside Rocky Mountain NP.  Maybe some hiking and Jeeping.  Looking to book a cruise in the Fall.  Sticker shock on the 14 day New York to New Orleans cruise.  Hits many Caribbean islands in between.  New Orleans is our home port, so only flight from New Orleans to New York needed.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5955 on: February 21, 2022, 10:19:17 PM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)
Lol, on a hike today, DH mentioned that he had looked at our primary investment account balances. OTOH, I ran the numbers on our real estate yesterday. $2.7M in equity. WTF? One hand giveth, the other taketh away. Meh.

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5956 on: February 22, 2022, 06:12:32 AM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)

For me, I think I've resigned myself to 2022 being a year of just keeping the nose to the grindstone and contributing what I can to the stache, hoping that I'm buying in at attractive long-term valuations during the course of the year.  In terms of damage, I will admit that I did take a sneak peek and figure it would still require another 8-10% drop in the market to cause me to need to turn in my membership card to this thread :-). 

Meantime, in planning for a summer vacation -- I can feel the inflation impact for sure....surprised at the estimated price tag.  Biggest contributor -- airfare and rental car.  Its a struggle to find a rental car for a week for anything significantly less than $1,000.  I think I did a bit better than that, but still.....its a far cry from the bygone era of $40-50 per day for a nice car/suv!  Anyone else experiencing sticker shock with vacation planning?   Maybe I just chose the unlucky location....

We're making plans for 2022 vacations.   March were headed to Chicago for a few days.  Flights weren't too bad, plan to drive some of the trips.  April will be a Florida house trip, hopefully some fun outdoor stuff, shouldn't be expensive.   June will be a Fort Lauderdale, Florida beach trip for a week.  Already booked the condo.  After that, drive to the west coast of Florida for a few days at the house.  September we've booked a condo just outside Rocky Mountain NP.  Maybe some hiking and Jeeping.  Looking to book a cruise in the Fall.  Sticker shock on the 14 day New York to New Orleans cruise.  Hits many Caribbean islands in between.  New Orleans is our home port, so only flight from New Orleans to New York needed.

Hello @Bateaux - wow busy summer, good for you!  Rocky Mountain NP is incredible, but (as you probably know) to do have to reserve your date and time just to get into the park.  Just wanted to make sure you knew that so you could do it before you get there and find its all booked up.   There are some sites where I think you can buy park passes second hand from people who have changed plans, etc., so if they are sold out you could look into that as an option.   Hope you enjoy those trips!

ixtap

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5957 on: February 22, 2022, 08:47:31 AM »
Our tickets for this year have seemed very reasonable so far, and the trips we have yet to book will each use a companion pass, so expensive trips just make the annual fees more worthwhile? Probably helps that one of the trips we have booked is for India in the fall. Fingers crossed world events cooperate.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5958 on: February 22, 2022, 09:00:38 AM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)

For me, I think I've resigned myself to 2022 being a year of just keeping the nose to the grindstone and contributing what I can to the stache, hoping that I'm buying in at attractive long-term valuations during the course of the year.  In terms of damage, I will admit that I did take a sneak peek and figure it would still require another 8-10% drop in the market to cause me to need to turn in my membership card to this thread :-). 

Meantime, in planning for a summer vacation -- I can feel the inflation impact for sure....surprised at the estimated price tag.  Biggest contributor -- airfare and rental car.  Its a struggle to find a rental car for a week for anything significantly less than $1,000.  I think I did a bit better than that, but still.....its a far cry from the bygone era of $40-50 per day for a nice car/suv!  Anyone else experiencing sticker shock with vacation planning?   Maybe I just chose the unlucky location....

We're making plans for 2022 vacations.   March were headed to Chicago for a few days.  Flights weren't too bad, plan to drive some of the trips.  April will be a Florida house trip, hopefully some fun outdoor stuff, shouldn't be expensive.   June will be a Fort Lauderdale, Florida beach trip for a week.  Already booked the condo.  After that, drive to the west coast of Florida for a few days at the house.  September we've booked a condo just outside Rocky Mountain NP.  Maybe some hiking and Jeeping.  Looking to book a cruise in the Fall.  Sticker shock on the 14 day New York to New Orleans cruise.  Hits many Caribbean islands in between.  New Orleans is our home port, so only flight from New Orleans to New York needed.

Hello @Bateaux - wow busy summer, good for you!  Rocky Mountain NP is incredible, but (as you probably know) to do have to reserve your date and time just to get into the park.  Just wanted to make sure you knew that so you could do it before you get there and find its all booked up.   There are some sites where I think you can buy park passes second hand from people who have changed plans, etc., so if they are sold out you could look into that as an option.   Hope you enjoy those trips!
Most likely won't go into RMNP itself if crowded.  May drive up Mount Evans if the road is still open.  The property at Granby has many mountain bike trails on sight.  I also may hike a bit of the CDT south of the park.  Maybe an overnight if my wife would drop me and pick me up.

swaneesr

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5959 on: February 22, 2022, 04:54:48 PM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)

For me, I think I've resigned myself to 2022 being a year of just keeping the nose to the grindstone and contributing what I can to the stache, hoping that I'm buying in at attractive long-term valuations during the course of the year.  In terms of damage, I will admit that I did take a sneak peek and figure it would still require another 8-10% drop in the market to cause me to need to turn in my membership card to this thread :-). 

Meantime, in planning for a summer vacation -- I can feel the inflation impact for sure....surprised at the estimated price tag.  Biggest contributor -- airfare and rental car.  Its a struggle to find a rental car for a week for anything significantly less than $1,000.  I think I did a bit better than that, but still.....its a far cry from the bygone era of $40-50 per day for a nice car/suv!  Anyone else experiencing sticker shock with vacation planning?   Maybe I just chose the unlucky location....

We're making plans for 2022 vacations.   March were headed to Chicago for a few days.  Flights weren't too bad, plan to drive some of the trips.  April will be a Florida house trip, hopefully some fun outdoor stuff, shouldn't be expensive.   June will be a Fort Lauderdale, Florida beach trip for a week.  Already booked the condo.  After that, drive to the west coast of Florida for a few days at the house.  September we've booked a condo just outside Rocky Mountain NP.  Maybe some hiking and Jeeping.  Looking to book a cruise in the Fall.  Sticker shock on the 14 day New York to New Orleans cruise.  Hits many Caribbean islands in between.  New Orleans is our home port, so only flight from New Orleans to New York needed.

Hello @Bateaux - wow busy summer, good for you!  Rocky Mountain NP is incredible, but (as you probably know) to do have to reserve your date and time just to get into the park.  Just wanted to make sure you knew that so you could do it before you get there and find its all booked up.   There are some sites where I think you can buy park passes second hand from people who have changed plans, etc., so if they are sold out you could look into that as an option.   Hope you enjoy those trips!
Most likely won't go into RMNP itself if crowded.  May drive up Mount Evans if the road is still open.  The property at Granby has many mountain bike trails on sight.  I also may hike a bit of the CDT south of the park.  Maybe an overnight if my wife would drop me and pick me up.
Wow that is a busy vacation schedule Bateaux. Good for you!


We visited Rocky Mountain National a park last year. No problem getting access to park if you get there earlier in the morning (before 9am). Met a mother moose and her son on a hike and lots of other wild life.

Mint totals are bad bad badÖÖ. hope to retire 7/1. Oh the drama.

Swanee


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jeroly

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5960 on: February 23, 2022, 01:50:58 AM »
Since Omicron kicked into hyperdrive in December, I have been semi-quarantining; no restaurant dining (either outdoors or in), no meeting with friends, mostly ordering groceries from Instacart/Amazon Fresh (or popping into the supermarket at 6AM when nobody's there), wearing a KN95 mask whenver leaving the house and maintaining social distance.

I'm triple vaccinated (Pfizer x3), so y'all might ask, why take so many precautions?

- I'm older and with a condition (atrial fibrilation) that puts me at additional risk
- We really don't know the long-term risks with Omicron vs other variants even if short term symptoms are milder in general
- Paxlovid, the new Pfizer antiviral treatment, is seeing its production ramped up and will likely get to a point in the next couple of months whereby I have a (possibly slightly optimistic) expectation that I will be able to acquire a treatment course of Paxlovid to carry around with me in case I get Covid whilst traveling

My original plan was to continue to shelter in place until March 1st, but I at first pushed it back by two weeks and then pushed it forward by a week so that I can travel with my daughter in her week between jobs.

Despite the slow start to the year I think I'll be doing a good deal of travel in the coming months...

Already planned: beach holiday in March, hiking holiday in Grand Tetons NP in August
In planning stages:

Chile in April (probably about ten days in and around the Atacama Desert)
Either: Indonesia in June (two weeks in Sumatra and Sulawesi - not just for the coffee, lol, but because those are the most interesting-to-me parts of Indonesia I haven't checked out yet in my previous five trips) - OR - England in July (depending on if I'm going alone [ID] or with my GF [GB])   
Australia in October (three weeks to watch T20 Cricket World Cup matches and to visit the half of Australia I missed when I spent three weeks there in 2019, i.e. Queensland, Sydney, Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin, northwest Western Australia)
Somewhere warm and fun with GF in December (suggestions welcome!)

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5961 on: February 23, 2022, 02:20:21 AM »
Since Omicron kicked into hyperdrive in December, I have been semi-quarantining; no restaurant dining (either outdoors or in), no meeting with friends, mostly ordering groceries from Instacart/Amazon Fresh (or popping into the supermarket at 6AM when nobody's there), wearing a KN95 mask whenver leaving the house and maintaining social distance.

I'm triple vaccinated (Pfizer x3), so y'all might ask, why take so many precautions?

- I'm older and with a condition (atrial fibrilation) that puts me at additional risk
- We really don't know the long-term risks with Omicron vs other variants even if short term symptoms are milder in general
- Paxlovid, the new Pfizer antiviral treatment, is seeing its production ramped up and will likely get to a point in the next couple of months whereby I have a (possibly slightly optimistic) expectation that I will be able to acquire a treatment course of Paxlovid to carry around with me in case I get Covid whilst traveling

My original plan was to continue to shelter in place until March 1st, but I at first pushed it back by two weeks and then pushed it forward by a week so that I can travel with my daughter in her week between jobs.

Despite the slow start to the year I think I'll be doing a good deal of travel in the coming months...

Already planned: beach holiday in March, hiking holiday in Grand Tetons NP in August
In planning stages:

Chile in April (probably about ten days in and around the Atacama Desert)
Either: Indonesia in June (two weeks in Sumatra and Sulawesi - not just for the coffee, lol, but because those are the most interesting-to-me parts of Indonesia I haven't checked out yet in my previous five trips) - OR - England in July (depending on if I'm going alone [ID] or with my GF [GB])   
Australia in October (three weeks to watch T20 Cricket World Cup matches and to visit the half of Australia I missed when I spent three weeks there in 2019, i.e. Queensland, Sydney, Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin, northwest Western Australia)
Somewhere warm and fun with GF in December (suggestions welcome!)

Good luck with your health and fun with the travel.  It is scary as we age and lose our youthful immune systems.  But, we only have so much time to get out and actually live.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5962 on: February 23, 2022, 02:23:07 AM »
I had to check Mint.  I didn't want to, but I just did.  Still a 3 and a bunch of zeros.  Not by much, but still there.   Should be an interesting week to come with old Putin rattling sabers.  He backs down, the market will rally and temporarily forget about the Fed and inflation.

Braver man than me.. I darn't look...:)

I just looked again, it's probably not as as bad as you thought.  We're down less than 10 percent from the tippy top high point.  Yes it's slightly below 3M liquid now, but that's still a lot of digits.
Oh and I'm still going to work today.  DCA.

jeroly

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5963 on: February 23, 2022, 03:05:44 AM »
Since Omicron kicked into hyperdrive in December, I have been semi-quarantining; no restaurant dining (either outdoors or in), no meeting with friends, mostly ordering groceries from Instacart/Amazon Fresh (or popping into the supermarket at 6AM when nobody's there), wearing a KN95 mask whenver leaving the house and maintaining social distance.

I'm triple vaccinated (Pfizer x3), so y'all might ask, why take so many precautions?

- I'm older and with a condition (atrial fibrilation) that puts me at additional risk
- We really don't know the long-term risks with Omicron vs other variants even if short term symptoms are milder in general
- Paxlovid, the new Pfizer antiviral treatment, is seeing its production ramped up and will likely get to a point in the next couple of months whereby I have a (possibly slightly optimistic) expectation that I will be able to acquire a treatment course of Paxlovid to carry around with me in case I get Covid whilst traveling

My original plan was to continue to shelter in place until March 1st, but I at first pushed it back by two weeks and then pushed it forward by a week so that I can travel with my daughter in her week between jobs.

Despite the slow start to the year I think I'll be doing a good deal of travel in the coming months...

Already planned: beach holiday in March, hiking holiday in Grand Tetons NP in August
In planning stages:

Chile in April (probably about ten days in and around the Atacama Desert)
Either: Indonesia in June (two weeks in Sumatra and Sulawesi - not just for the coffee, lol, but because those are the most interesting-to-me parts of Indonesia I haven't checked out yet in my previous five trips) - OR - England in July (depending on if I'm going alone [ID] or with my GF [GB])   
Australia in October (three weeks to watch T20 Cricket World Cup matches and to visit the half of Australia I missed when I spent three weeks there in 2019, i.e. Queensland, Sydney, Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin, northwest Western Australia)
Somewhere warm and fun with GF in December (suggestions welcome!)

Good luck with your health and fun with the travel.  It is scary as we age and lose our youthful immune systems.  But, we only have so much time to get out and actually live.
Thanks, Bateaux!  It's challenging to strike the right risk/reward balance as the equation keeps changing with new variants, treatments, and  levels of prevalence. 

flyingaway

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5964 on: February 23, 2022, 10:13:11 AM »
Since Omicron kicked into hyperdrive in December, I have been semi-quarantining; no restaurant dining (either outdoors or in), no meeting with friends, mostly ordering groceries from Instacart/Amazon Fresh (or popping into the supermarket at 6AM when nobody's there), wearing a KN95 mask whenver leaving the house and maintaining social distance.

I'm triple vaccinated (Pfizer x3), so y'all might ask, why take so many precautions?

- I'm older and with a condition (atrial fibrilation) that puts me at additional risk
- We really don't know the long-term risks with Omicron vs other variants even if short term symptoms are milder in general
- Paxlovid, the new Pfizer antiviral treatment, is seeing its production ramped up and will likely get to a point in the next couple of months whereby I have a (possibly slightly optimistic) expectation that I will be able to acquire a treatment course of Paxlovid to carry around with me in case I get Covid whilst traveling

My original plan was to continue to shelter in place until March 1st, but I at first pushed it back by two weeks and then pushed it forward by a week so that I can travel with my daughter in her week between jobs.

Despite the slow start to the year I think I'll be doing a good deal of travel in the coming months...

Already planned: beach holiday in March, hiking holiday in Grand Tetons NP in August
In planning stages:

Chile in April (probably about ten days in and around the Atacama Desert)
Either: Indonesia in June (two weeks in Sumatra and Sulawesi - not just for the coffee, lol, but because those are the most interesting-to-me parts of Indonesia I haven't checked out yet in my previous five trips) - OR - England in July (depending on if I'm going alone [ID] or with my GF [GB])   
Australia in October (three weeks to watch T20 Cricket World Cup matches and to visit the half of Australia I missed when I spent three weeks there in 2019, i.e. Queensland, Sydney, Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin, northwest Western Australia)
Somewhere warm and fun with GF in December (suggestions welcome!)

I have booked and cancelled trips to central America several times this month, but finally booked tickets to Europe (Croatia and around) at the end of April. I care less about the virus, but more about the logistics of getting tested when flying back to the U.S. Once the U.S. removes the testing requirements, I am flying around the world.

flyingaway

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5965 on: February 23, 2022, 10:25:18 AM »
Hello @Bateaux - wow busy summer, good for you!  Rocky Mountain NP is incredible, but (as you probably know) to do have to reserve your date and time just to get into the park.  Just wanted to make sure you knew that so you could do it before you get there and find its all booked up.   There are some sites where I think you can buy park passes second hand from people who have changed plans, etc., so if they are sold out you could look into that as an option.   Hope you enjoy those trips!

Sometimes they do check IDs at the park entrances.

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5966 on: February 23, 2022, 12:57:12 PM »
As I move inextricably closer to my self promised FIRE date I canít help but update my spreadsheet almost daily. It is not in anyway helpful to any decision making, just a bad habit like drinking too much coffee.

The relatively small market slump OTOH has been a good reminder to me to reassess my asset mix and I have taken heed and started accumulating some cash, starting with my 2021 bonus which historically would immediately been tipped onto the pile in the market. I have never held cash previously, just invested everything in shares and property.

When I stop work Later this year I just want a couple of years of cash at my disposal so that I can just not look at the stock market at all for the first year post FIRE. Ignorance will be bliss. So I will leave my current invested stash to ride the waves of market sentiment and I will build up a little side stash of fun money for the first year or 2 post FIRE.

So, the FIRE planningÖ.

Late last year I bought a 4x4 and I have enrolled myself in an off road driving course in April. One of the things I am looking forward to post FIRE is having the time to roam the national parks and outback of my home country, Australia. I have also have a camper trailer on order, which is being built down in Melbourne with delivery expected in June. Covid is causing some delay in parts delivery coming from China, so it could be July or August before I get my mobile 2nd home.

In January DW and I will head off on a 9 month trip around the central and western part of Australia. Most of it will not need any pre-booking but there will be a need to book a couple of things I have planned, and also some popular camp sites in school holiday periods. Now that the big 1st trip is less than 12 months away the booking window is now opening up and we need to start thinking about really committing to the plan. The first booking I will need to make is at Easter where I want to get in super early to secure a space in a very popular national park campsite for Easter next year,.

So now we are making real progress towards FIRE. It is no longer a theoretical concept based off spreadsheets and calculators, but something we are actively making commitments to.

Deep breathsÖ..


scottish

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5967 on: February 23, 2022, 03:03:55 PM »
As I move inextricably closer to my self promised FIRE date I canít help but update my spreadsheet almost daily. It is not in anyway helpful to any decision making, just a bad habit like drinking too much coffee.

The relatively small market slump OTOH has been a good reminder to me to reassess my asset mix and I have taken heed and started accumulating some cash, starting with my 2021 bonus which historically would immediately been tipped onto the pile in the market. I have never held cash previously, just invested everything in shares and property.

When I stop work Later this year I just want a couple of years of cash at my disposal so that I can just not look at the stock market at all for the first year post FIRE. Ignorance will be bliss. So I will leave my current invested stash to ride the waves of market sentiment and I will build up a little side stash of fun money for the first year or 2 post FIRE.



This is really germane to my situation.    I've figured out the mechanics, but I seem to have a bit of a mental block about switching from accumulation to withdrawal.

What are you planning to do with distributions?    Our investments accounts generate a substantial fraction of our annual expenses so I've been thinking to live off of those (along with a bunch of cash) until we get used to the idea of drawing on (i.e. selling) investments directly.


itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5968 on: February 24, 2022, 04:39:40 AM »
Yep, pretty much the same

We will get some rent, some dividends, and spend some cash and just let the stock market do itís thing for a year or 3. Everything in our superannuation (retirememt account) will be reinvested by the fund till Iím 60.

I say i wonít watch the market but that wonít be true. Iíd be lying to myself.

The plan isÖ

If the stock market continues to hold up ok we will draw down to top up the cash stash once a quarter. If stocks drop by more than 25% from the last quarter (or cumulatively over the past few draw downs) we will stop the top up until stocks are back to 90% of the highest index point draw down (VAS), or until our cash runs dry.

We also have a large % of our budget being discretionary (>50% for travel, entertainment, home renovations/ upgrades, car replacement etc) so I expect the cash will last longer than I think as I wonít be able to resist battening down the hatches if I suffered 25% of my stash disappearing and not bouncing back in a couple of years. I am sure we could go 4 or 5 years without being forced to sell any stocks.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5969 on: February 24, 2022, 05:25:02 AM »
As I move inextricably closer to my self promised FIRE date I canít help but update my spreadsheet almost daily. It is not in anyway helpful to any decision making, just a bad habit like drinking too much coffee.

The relatively small market slump OTOH has been a good reminder to me to reassess my asset mix and I have taken heed and started accumulating some cash, starting with my 2021 bonus which historically would immediately been tipped onto the pile in the market. I have never held cash previously, just invested everything in shares and property.

When I stop work Later this year I just want a couple of years of cash at my disposal so that I can just not look at the stock market at all for the first year post FIRE. Ignorance will be bliss. So I will leave my current invested stash to ride the waves of market sentiment and I will build up a little side stash of fun money for the first year or 2 post FIRE.



This is really germane to my situation.    I've figured out the mechanics, but I seem to have a bit of a mental block about switching from accumulation to withdrawal.

What are you planning to do with distributions?    Our investments accounts generate a substantial fraction of our annual expenses so I've been thinking to live off of those (along with a bunch of cash) until we get used to the idea of drawing on (i.e. selling) investments directly.

I'm pulling the trigger this year.  I get around a third of what we spend in dividends/distributions from our taxable account. And I have about 6 years of spending (needed after the dividends) in cash.  My current LNW allocation is about 70/15/15 (stocks bonds cash) but my intention is to spend down at least half of that cash, maybe more (not re-balance back to it) at the start of FIRE to get me more to a 80/15/5.  I know if I was selling investments during the few years for my spending I'd just be watching the market too closely (and caring about it too much), so this plan allows me to stick my head in the sand for those first few years, which I think is best for me.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5970 on: February 24, 2022, 05:52:19 AM »

- SNIP -

I'm pulling the trigger this year.  I get around a third of what we spend in dividends/distributions from our taxable account. And I have about 6 years of spending (needed after the dividends) in cash.  My current LNW allocation is about 70/15/15 (stocks bonds cash) but my intention is to spend down at least half of that cash, maybe more (not re-balance back to it) at the start of FIRE to get me more to a 80/15/5.  I know if I was selling investments during the few years for my spending I'd just be watching the market too closely (and caring about it too much), so this plan allows me to stick my head in the sand for those first few years, which I think is best for me.

With the way the stock market has been plummeting at what seems like 9.8 meters per second per second, cash seems like a smart idea.  There may be the inflation hit, but I'll bet you've figured a way around that.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5971 on: February 24, 2022, 06:48:31 AM »

- SNIP -

I'm pulling the trigger this year.  I get around a third of what we spend in dividends/distributions from our taxable account. And I have about 6 years of spending (needed after the dividends) in cash.  My current LNW allocation is about 70/15/15 (stocks bonds cash) but my intention is to spend down at least half of that cash, maybe more (not re-balance back to it) at the start of FIRE to get me more to a 80/15/5.  I know if I was selling investments during the few years for my spending I'd just be watching the market too closely (and caring about it too much), so this plan allows me to stick my head in the sand for those first few years, which I think is best for me.

With the way the stock market has been plummeting at what seems like 9.8 meters per second per second, cash seems like a smart idea.  There may be the inflation hit, but I'll bet you've figured a way around that.

Well, if I stayed 70/15/15 the cash would likely be quite the drag due to opportunity costs and inflation, but again I'm gonna spend that portion down so in the end not a huge cost for helping me ease into RE which I think is gonna be a shock to my system....In 23 years of saving and investing I've never had my NW drop in a year due to some coincidences and the market obviously surging since that number got large....
« Last Edit: February 25, 2022, 09:38:56 AM by Much Fishing to Do »

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5972 on: February 24, 2022, 10:59:50 AM »
Since I haven't mentioned it here, DH is finally pulling the trigger. He's scheduled for foot surgery in late March. He will then have about an 8-10 week recovery period, during which he will burn up his remaining vacation time. His official end date is scheduled for June 1, 2022. We had originally planned for him to move the unused vacation into his 401k, but we really don't need the money, so he's going to do it this way instead.

The RV (E RIG B) is all spruced up and ready to go. Now if only he can finish the backyard hardscaping before his surgery...

I posted somewhere previously about the differences in valuations between Redfin and Zillow. They vary wildly between Northern CA (1) and Southern CA (3), but the total is always close. On four properties, currently valued at about $3.4M, the difference this time was only $2,820. Crazy. <--- I realize that's a little confusing, Z thinks our primary is worth $100k more then R does and R thinks our three rentals combined are worth $100k more than Z does. in the end the difference is <$3k.

Interestingly, there's a piece of shit flip around the corner from our primary that just went on the market for more than Z or R think our house is worth. It went pending in six days. It'll be interesting to see what it sells for. FWIW, it's 600sf smaller and on a very busy street. The job the guy did is so bad it's well, it's just bad.

Of course, Putin could blow us all off the map and none of this blather would matter.

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5973 on: February 25, 2022, 04:05:33 PM »
Since I haven't mentioned it here, DH is finally pulling the trigger. He's scheduled for foot surgery in late March. He will then have about an 8-10 week recovery period, during which he will burn up his remaining vacation time. His official end date is scheduled for June 1, 2022. We had originally planned for him to move the unused vacation into his 401k, but we really don't need the money, so he's going to do it this way instead.

The RV (E RIG B) is all spruced up and ready to go. Now if only he can finish the backyard hardscaping before his surgery...

I posted somewhere previously about the differences in valuations between Redfin and Zillow. They vary wildly between Northern CA (1) and Southern CA (3), but the total is always close. On four properties, currently valued at about $3.4M, the difference this time was only $2,820. Crazy. <--- I realize that's a little confusing, Z thinks our primary is worth $100k more then R does and R thinks our three rentals combined are worth $100k more than Z does. in the end the difference is <$3k.

Interestingly, there's a piece of shit flip around the corner from our primary that just went on the market for more than Z or R think our house is worth. It went pending in six days. It'll be interesting to see what it sells for. FWIW, it's 600sf smaller and on a very busy street. The job the guy did is so bad it's well, it's just bad.

Of course, Putin could blow us all off the map and none of this blather would matter.

I have a somewhat similar situation where I look at the Z values of other homes in my area, and I'm shocked by the price while I look at the estimated Z value for my home it doesn't seem to have kept up with the level of inflation happening right around me.  It makes me start to feel like I need to rethink my plans to downsize and save money as part of my RE strategy.  I *kinda* believe that my Z estimate could be as much as 10-15% low, yet with the Z value being what it is, it does make me nervous about just assuming its wrong for my home.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5974 on: February 25, 2022, 04:15:17 PM »
You really have to look at when houses in the area sold, what they sold for, the condition they were in when they sold, and who they sold to (i.e., sold to a family member for a discount), are they fashionably updated, etc.    If a distressed house was recently purchased for a very low price and then renovated, Zillow will be weighting the recent purchase price fairly heavily.   It has no way of knowing the house is now worth more unless someone offers it for sale at a higher price, and even then it won't really know until it sells.

In a neighborhood where you know what's what on the inside condition of most of the homes around you, then you can make much better estimates. 

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5975 on: February 25, 2022, 04:19:00 PM »
You really have to look at when houses in the area sold, what they sold for, the condition they were in when they sold, and who they sold to (i.e., sold to a family member for a discount), are they fashionably updated, etc.    If a distressed house was recently purchased for a very low price and then renovated, Zillow will be weighting the recent purchase price fairly heavily.   It has no way of knowing the house is now worth more unless someone offers it for sale at a higher price, and even then it won't really know until it sells.

In a neighborhood where you know what's what on the inside condition of most of the homes around you, then you can make much better estimates.

Yep, I think that's part of my problem -- as I live in an area with 70-80 year old homes, some of which have been completely renovated and others that haven't been touched in 30-35 years on the inside.  So I feel like pricing in my particular neighborhood is perhaps more art than science in this regard, because the houses are like a box of chocolates....

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5976 on: February 25, 2022, 04:49:05 PM »

Of course, Putin could blow us all off the map and none of this blather would matter.

Ugh, my heart breaks for the people in Ukraine right now. I spent a wonderful 10 days in Kiev in 2016 and the people are quite lovely. Thinking of those folks being subject to the abuses of Russian troops literally makes me feel sick, assuming of course they havent gotten any better than when they occupied East Germany.

Sitting in a coffee shop in Kiev a bit like being in Paris, quite cosmopolitan.

My friends bought their house on the outskirts of Kiev.. thankfully they got out and are now in Florida. They don't know if it will be worth anything (or if they will even own it) once on the East side of a new Iron Curtain..:(

Just bloody awful.

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5977 on: February 25, 2022, 05:18:17 PM »

Of course, Putin could blow us all off the map and none of this blather would matter.

Ugh, my heart breaks for the people in Ukraine right now. I spent a wonderful 10 days in Kiev in 2016 and the people are quite lovely. Thinking of those folks being subject to the abuses of Russian troops literally makes me feel sick, assuming of course they havent gotten any better than when they occupied East Germany.

Sitting in a coffee shop in Kiev a bit like being in Paris, quite cosmopolitan.

My friends bought their house on the outskirts of Kiev.. thankfully they got out and are now in Florida. They don't know if it will be worth anything (or if they will even own it) once on the East side of a new Iron Curtain..:(

Just bloody awful.

Well said @Exflyboy - it feels like we've been teleported to the 1930/40s....
« Last Edit: February 25, 2022, 05:37:16 PM by arcturus »

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5978 on: February 27, 2022, 08:25:57 AM »
Since I haven't mentioned it here, DH is finally pulling the trigger. He's scheduled for foot surgery in late March. He will then have about an 8-10 week recovery period, during which he will burn up his remaining vacation time. His official end date is scheduled for June 1, 2022. We had originally planned for him to move the unused vacation into his 401k, but we really don't need the money, so he's going to do it this way instead.

The RV (E RIG B) is all spruced up and ready to go. Now if only he can finish the backyard hardscaping before his surgery...

I posted somewhere previously about the differences in valuations between Redfin and Zillow. They vary wildly between Northern CA (1) and Southern CA (3), but the total is always close. On four properties, currently valued at about $3.4M, the difference this time was only $2,820. Crazy. <--- I realize that's a little confusing, Z thinks our primary is worth $100k more then R does and R thinks our three rentals combined are worth $100k more than Z does. in the end the difference is <$3k.

Interestingly, there's a piece of shit flip around the corner from our primary that just went on the market for more than Z or R think our house is worth. It went pending in six days. It'll be interesting to see what it sells for. FWIW, it's 600sf smaller and on a very busy street. The job the guy did is so bad it's well, it's just bad.

Of course, Putin could blow us all off the map and none of this blather would matter.

I have a somewhat similar situation where I look at the Z values of other homes in my area, and I'm shocked by the price while I look at the estimated Z value for my home it doesn't seem to have kept up with the level of inflation happening right around me.  It makes me start to feel like I need to rethink my plans to downsize and save money as part of my RE strategy.  I *kinda* believe that my Z estimate could be as much as 10-15% low, yet with the Z value being what it is, it does make me nervous about just assuming its wrong for my home
.

Here's the other post I referred to:


...Another frugal real estate weirdo way to have fun is to use either site to do a search. Set up parameters that match your home for lot size, square footage,  bed/bath count, etc. Choose "Recent Sales" and see what comes up. Average those, adjust for different amenities and you've got a decent idea of current market value.

Recently, we did this with our primary. We have a huge, 3-car, 1050 sf garage.  They're not all that common in our area, so I only got 6 matches, and the prices weren't great. I repeated the search, without the 3-car garage, and got 21 hits and much higher values. Are houses with smaller garages worth more? No. It's just that all the houses with three car garages that have sold recently were older/smaller/whatever. That's how these estimates can get so wonky.
Hope it's helpful.

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5979 on: February 27, 2022, 05:40:41 PM »
Since I haven't mentioned it here, DH is finally pulling the trigger. He's scheduled for foot surgery in late March. He will then have about an 8-10 week recovery period, during which he will burn up his remaining vacation time. His official end date is scheduled for June 1, 2022. We had originally planned for him to move the unused vacation into his 401k, but we really don't need the money, so he's going to do it this way instead.

The RV (E RIG B) is all spruced up and ready to go. Now if only he can finish the backyard hardscaping before his surgery...

I posted somewhere previously about the differences in valuations between Redfin and Zillow. They vary wildly between Northern CA (1) and Southern CA (3), but the total is always close. On four properties, currently valued at about $3.4M, the difference this time was only $2,820. Crazy. <--- I realize that's a little confusing, Z thinks our primary is worth $100k more then R does and R thinks our three rentals combined are worth $100k more than Z does. in the end the difference is <$3k.

Interestingly, there's a piece of shit flip around the corner from our primary that just went on the market for more than Z or R think our house is worth. It went pending in six days. It'll be interesting to see what it sells for. FWIW, it's 600sf smaller and on a very busy street. The job the guy did is so bad it's well, it's just bad.

Of course, Putin could blow us all off the map and none of this blather would matter.

I have a somewhat similar situation where I look at the Z values of other homes in my area, and I'm shocked by the price while I look at the estimated Z value for my home it doesn't seem to have kept up with the level of inflation happening right around me.  It makes me start to feel like I need to rethink my plans to downsize and save money as part of my RE strategy.  I *kinda* believe that my Z estimate could be as much as 10-15% low, yet with the Z value being what it is, it does make me nervous about just assuming its wrong for my home
.

Here's the other post I referred to:


...Another frugal real estate weirdo way to have fun is to use either site to do a search. Set up parameters that match your home for lot size, square footage,  bed/bath count, etc. Choose "Recent Sales" and see what comes up. Average those, adjust for different amenities and you've got a decent idea of current market value.

Recently, we did this with our primary. We have a huge, 3-car, 1050 sf garage.  They're not all that common in our area, so I only got 6 matches, and the prices weren't great. I repeated the search, without the 3-car garage, and got 21 hits and much higher values. Are houses with smaller garages worth more? No. It's just that all the houses with three car garages that have sold recently were older/smaller/whatever. That's how these estimates can get so wonky.
Hope it's helpful.

Thank you @Dicey that is helpful.  I'll have to spend more time on it, but when I did that I found it interesting that a "roughly comparable" house in my zip code sold about 9 months at a price that is about 10% above the current Zestimate for the house, which I assume lends some support to the notion that there are some recent sales of houses which may be dragging these Zestimates down.  Thanks for sharing....gives me a new way to track this.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5980 on: March 01, 2022, 06:06:11 AM »
I looked at end of Feb numbers. We're down 7%. Disappointing, but at the same time it doesn't really matter.

I've found I check less and care less about money since RE. Seems counterintuitive but it's true. Prior to RE I was really concerned with the number and the safety of the number, and would it work out, and should I really quit. Now I'm just like, "meh, we'll worry about it when there is a problem and it looks like we're running out".

(full disclosure- not 100% RE-DH is still working and I'm doing some (very par time) contract work. But on the other hand we have two kids at home that keep needing things, and eating, and growing, and needing more things, and we like to travel with them while we have the chance.)

couponvan

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5981 on: March 01, 2022, 05:21:08 PM »
Checked from 12/31/21 to 2/28/22, and we are down, drumroll...$50K.  I assumed it would be more.  I also check less frequently than I used to because in retirement, there's not much I can do other than reduce spending. This was the 2 in college year with OOS tuition for both.  The "final" payment for the oldest has been made, so now it's just rent ($4K more for him, and $4,500 for the middle son) for the remainder of this school year.  Severance payments to DH end this March.  Boo on the loss of that firehose of cash.  It's been a blessing this past year given everything else that's been going on.  So, we are still sitting at $2.7 million. I'm good with that. I'm pretty sure we're going to go down over the next couple years versus up, but I'm also "mostly" good with that.  My IBL isn't screaming at me every day.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5982 on: March 01, 2022, 06:48:18 PM »
I've found I check less and care less about money since RE. Seems counterintuitive but it's true.

Makes total sense to me.  Before you RE you are deciding whether to RE or not based off the numbers.  There's a big difference in one's daily life between being RE versus not.

After RE what difference is there really?  So this month my WR is at a 4.3% annual pace versus 4%?  So what, it'll be 20 years (if I'm even around then) before I know if that even matters at all.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5983 on: March 01, 2022, 10:10:17 PM »
So I have a showing on a house tomorrow.  Itís above my price range but my price range is conservative.  Im willing to consider but not go much above asking.  Iíve been told we arenít as over asking crazy as the rest of the Bay Area.  It would be less than half the house for close to double the price of my last one.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5984 on: March 02, 2022, 12:49:29 PM »
Ugg, attending my work sponsored 4 day virtual retirement seminar.  Okay is the ďFinancial plannerĒ day.  Iím not impressed.  Of course heís made several internet retirement police cracks about the FIRE movement, note there are many people attending who have the opportunity to retire significantly earlier than 65 due to be public safety.

Finntastic

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5985 on: March 02, 2022, 10:22:21 PM »
May 2021 - 2.65m$
June 2021 - 2.61m$
July 2021 - 2.62m$
August 2021 - 2.82m$
September 2021 - 2.79m$
October 2021 - 2.87m$
November 2021 - 2.89m$
December 2021 - 2.80m$
January 2022 - 2.76m$
February 2022 - 3.01m$

yes got over that 3m mark!!

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5986 on: March 05, 2022, 06:04:47 AM »
@Finntastic , your February performance has to be in the top 5% - well done - and I guess that's a testament to your low allocation to stocks.  And the heavy real-estate position seems to have been wise as well (?).   I'm getting beaten up pretty thoroughly with about 75% equities.  My only real estate is my primary home, which I don't include in my portfolio, so I'm a big zero there.

The S&P500 closed again below its 255-day moving average.  With the evolving situation in Ukraine, its difficult to draw any comparisons to the past, but the optimist in me would say that the past 5 times this has happened (March 2020, October 2018, January 2016, August 2015, August 2011), the market has recovered swiftly -- in most cases within 3-4 months.  But now we all seem to be impacted by an unhinged man 5,000 miles away.  Incredible.   And of course, for the poor folks in Ukraine, I cannot even imagine....
« Last Edit: March 05, 2022, 06:08:33 AM by arcturus »

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5987 on: March 05, 2022, 10:57:05 AM »
I'm surprised the S&P is not down further..

Car Jack

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5988 on: March 05, 2022, 05:21:11 PM »
So today, I went to check out a new car.  My son and I drove down to the dealership and I did the typical hand over of my license for them to copy.  Name, tel number, email as usual.  While he was getting the car, a Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing, we looked at one in the showroom.  We found some fun things about the car business for this dealer at the moment.  Because supply was so limited, they're tacking on an amount over MSRP.  Why?  Because if they didn't, they'd pretty much have to become a used car lot.  As it was, there were plenty of used Porsches, a C8 Corvette, Audi RS5 and various Aston Martins and such.  Oh, the amount over MSRP?  $30k.  Yup.  So anyways, the car I drove had tons of power, handled great.  Matt Farah actually said it's better than a BMW M3.  Braking was quite good but I didn't push it.  The interior was well appointed and high quality.  I managed to find the button to make the seat stop messaging.  As it turns out, my priorities have changed from usual as an accident last fall left me with 3 fractures in my back and a couple ribs, so absorbing bumps has become something I care about.  In the end, it was an entertaining trip and my conversations with all the dealer people were good.  The MSRP of this particular Caddy was eighty grand, so figure $110k, if I decided to buy it.

Oh, did I mention that I have a coupon from Cadillac to get a free $75 Amazon card for test driving a Cadillac?

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5989 on: March 05, 2022, 09:33:01 PM »
So today, I went to check out a new car.  My son and I drove down to the dealership and I did the typical hand over of my license for them to copy.  Name, tel number, email as usual.  While he was getting the car, a Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing, we looked at one in the showroom.  We found some fun things about the car business for this dealer at the moment.  Because supply was so limited, they're tacking on an amount over MSRP.  Why?  Because if they didn't, they'd pretty much have to become a used car lot.  As it was, there were plenty of used Porsches, a C8 Corvette, Audi RS5 and various Aston Martins and such.  Oh, the amount over MSRP?  $30k.  Yup.  So anyways, the car I drove had tons of power, handled great.  Matt Farah actually said it's better than a BMW M3.  Braking was quite good but I didn't push it.  The interior was well appointed and high quality.  I managed to find the button to make the seat stop messaging.  As it turns out, my priorities have changed from usual as an accident last fall left me with 3 fractures in my back and a couple ribs, so absorbing bumps has become something I care about.  In the end, it was an entertaining trip and my conversations with all the dealer people were good.  The MSRP of this particular Caddy was eighty grand, so figure $110k, if I decided to buy it.

Oh, did I mention that I have a coupon from Cadillac to get a free $75 Amazon card for test driving a Cadillac?

Phew, I was getting worried we'd lost another one for a minute there...

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5990 on: March 06, 2022, 07:23:15 AM »
I'm surprised the S&P is not down further..

You're not the only one - A Global Financial Crisis is Here

I'm sure there's plenty of stuff like this out there (this one being backed by the posters love of Bitcoin), but as long as you understand the potential bias, it's worth the listen.  I also like this one by Ray Dalio - Changing World Order

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5991 on: March 06, 2022, 07:47:33 AM »
So today, I went to check out a new car.  My son and I drove down to the dealership and I did the typical hand over of my license for them to copy.  Name, tel number, email as usual.  While he was getting the car, a Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing, we looked at one in the showroom.  We found some fun things about the car business for this dealer at the moment.  Because supply was so limited, they're tacking on an amount over MSRP.  Why?  Because if they didn't, they'd pretty much have to become a used car lot.  As it was, there were plenty of used Porsches, a C8 Corvette, Audi RS5 and various Aston Martins and such.  Oh, the amount over MSRP?  $30k.  Yup.  So anyways, the car I drove had tons of power, handled great.  Matt Farah actually said it's better than a BMW M3.  Braking was quite good but I didn't push it.  The interior was well appointed and high quality.  I managed to find the button to make the seat stop messaging.  As it turns out, my priorities have changed from usual as an accident last fall left me with 3 fractures in my back and a couple ribs, so absorbing bumps has become something I care about.  In the end, it was an entertaining trip and my conversations with all the dealer people were good.  The MSRP of this particular Caddy was eighty grand, so figure $110k, if I decided to buy it.

Oh, did I mention that I have a coupon from Cadillac to get a free $75 Amazon card for test driving a Cadillac?

Wow!  That car is over double the value of many of the houses I've lived in not too many years ago.  Hope it helps you continue to heal.  I had a Jeep a couple vehicles back.  I could not go much over a half hour in that thing without stretching out the kink it put in my back.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5992 on: March 06, 2022, 08:36:48 AM »
So today, I went to check out a new car.  My son and I drove down to the dealership and I did the typical hand over of my license for them to copy.  Name, tel number, email as usual.  While he was getting the car, a Cadillac CT4-V Blackwing, we looked at one in the showroom.  We found some fun things about the car business for this dealer at the moment.  Because supply was so limited, they're tacking on an amount over MSRP.  Why?  Because if they didn't, they'd pretty much have to become a used car lot.  As it was, there were plenty of used Porsches, a C8 Corvette, Audi RS5 and various Aston Martins and such.  Oh, the amount over MSRP?  $30k.  Yup.  So anyways, the car I drove had tons of power, handled great.  Matt Farah actually said it's better than a BMW M3.  Braking was quite good but I didn't push it.  The interior was well appointed and high quality.  I managed to find the button to make the seat stop messaging.  As it turns out, my priorities have changed from usual as an accident last fall left me with 3 fractures in my back and a couple ribs, so absorbing bumps has become something I care about.  In the end, it was an entertaining trip and my conversations with all the dealer people were good.  The MSRP of this particular Caddy was eighty grand, so figure $110k, if I decided to buy it.

Oh, did I mention that I have a coupon from Cadillac to get a free $75 Amazon card for test driving a Cadillac?

Wow!  That car is over double the value of many of the houses I've lived in not too many years ago.  Hope it helps you continue to heal.  I had a Jeep a couple vehicles back.  I could not go much over a half hour in that thing without stretching out the kink it put in my back.
DH was telling me that Oakland Toyota has a 2022 RAV4 listed for $97k, which is $50k over the $47k MSRP. WTF?

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5993 on: March 06, 2022, 11:42:21 AM »
DH was telling me that Oakland Toyota has a 2022 RAV4 listed for $97k, which is $50k over the $47k MSRP. WTF?

The MSRP for a RAV4 is $47K?  WTF?

scottish

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5994 on: March 06, 2022, 01:26:59 PM »
Interesting.   Have they jacked up prices the same amount for factory orders?

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5995 on: March 06, 2022, 01:28:42 PM »
Well maybe the craziness in the supply chain / car prices will finally cause people to break the "lease cycle."  Can you imagine having 3 year lease that just happens to come up in 2022?  I suppose you would be forced to exercise your purchase option and perhaps that encourages longer term car ownership for these folks. 

I'm thankful for my 11yr old SUV which looks better every day!  Wish the gas mileage were better, but I don't drive all that much.  Simply cannot imagine buying a new car in this environment, paying a price that you know is above market for an asset that you know will depreciate rapidly over the first 3-4 years of its life (not to mention losing 100% of the premium you have paid).  Whew.....my SUV may be around for another 11 years!

DaTrill

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5996 on: March 06, 2022, 02:02:54 PM »
Toyota Land Cruiser price above MSRP is even worse.  Inflation or supply chain issues, but either way, prices are ripping. 

https://jalopnik.com/120-000-late-model-land-cruisers-are-just-normal-now-1848562139 

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5997 on: March 06, 2022, 03:20:45 PM »
Simply cannot imagine buying a new car in this environment, paying a price that you know is above market for an asset that you know will depreciate rapidly over the first 3-4 years of its life (not to mention losing 100% of the premium you have paid). 

You silly!   If they double the car price, that means it's an asset worth twice as much!   And think of the trade in value with all that extra money in the car!   Better buy two at that price for double the value!

:)

arcturus

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5998 on: March 06, 2022, 07:28:28 PM »
Simply cannot imagine buying a new car in this environment, paying a price that you know is above market for an asset that you know will depreciate rapidly over the first 3-4 years of its life (not to mention losing 100% of the premium you have paid). 

You silly!   If they double the car price, that means it's an asset worth twice as much!   And think of the trade in value with all that extra money in the car!   Better buy two at that price for double the value!

:)

Good point -- I stand corrected!  :-)

rmorris50

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #5999 on: March 06, 2022, 07:44:15 PM »
Well maybe the craziness in the supply chain / car prices will finally cause people to break the "lease cycle."  Can you imagine having 3 year lease that just happens to come up in 2022?  I suppose you would be forced to exercise your purchase option and perhaps that encourages longer term car ownership for these folks. 

I'm thankful for my 11yr old SUV which looks better every day!  Wish the gas mileage were better, but I don't drive all that much.  Simply cannot imagine buying a new car in this environment, paying a price that you know is above market for an asset that you know will depreciate rapidly over the first 3-4 years of its life (not to mention losing 100% of the premium you have paid).  Whew.....my SUV may be around for another 11 years!
My lease comes due Nov this years. Itís. A 2019 Audi A4 I leased three years ago. Buy out price is 24k!!!!! Original value was $50k. Guess Iíd be stupid for not buying the car out.

First two cars I owned. First one I drove into the ground. Second one was paid off and 8 years old but totaled in a car wreck (everyone was fine, the repairs were just worth more than the car). So since I was commuting every day (so not driving much) on trains into Manhattan I decided to lease and get a nice Audi. A year later I moved to Charlotte right before COVID hit. Who knew my buyout would become so valuable.

I was thinking of buying a new Ford Bronco Sport, since I want a car than can handle light off road and outdoor trips. But I basically have to order it and wait nine months. Cost would be 40k, but I think Iíll just buy my Audi out for now and see how the car market plays out the next few years.


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