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We have a relatively large portfolio - even assuming inflated expense levels, we are probably at a 2.25% SWR - and could probably stop working...but I can't help from feeling uneasy when I read comments like these.
The market doesn't give you average returns year over year, it gives you actuals. 40 years from now we might look back and realize an 8% or 10% return. Or, it could be more, or less, but year to year, it can vary wildly. And it's hard to argue against folks that point to the correlations between a) high valuations like we have today and b) lower expected returns.
Undoubtedly, someone will read this that has been investing or invested in the markets for 20+ years. I hope they weigh in with their perspective.
Personally, as a 41 year old, I didn't have "real" money in the market until 2011/2012, and the markets have been good to us all over that time period. So, my track record is only 10 years. If I pull the plug now, i could need to live off my portfolio for 50 years.
i don't post often, and love this group and the optimism they imbue, but when i see folks in other threads talking about buying stocks on margin, or selling their homes to invest in ARK funds, or counting on a 10% return, it makes me uneasy.
I don't think "this time is different" but I do think there are clouds on the horizon. i suppose that's why i am at a <2.5% SWR...
sorry for the rant, i don't want to be the resident raincloud.
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Dreadfully, sorry, I forgot to include a statement that included something to the effect of "... and a 4% SWR income of a bit over $120k."
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i am not sure what the jist of the "dreadfully sorry" is, hope you didn't take offense to my post.