Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!

[secondcor521]

If you happen to own real estate in Phoenix or Boise, 10% is old news.   They are up 30% or more year over year. 
 https://www.weknowboise.com/blog/home-prices-up-100k.html 

Yep, nice for me as an existing homeowner in Boise.  Not so fun for my son who is trying to become a first time homebuyer here.  I tend to think things have to normalize somewhat (possibly if we have a mild recession and/or rising rates sometime soon), but for a city like Boise that probably just means 5%-10% YoY price growth instead of 30%.

[swaneesr]

Both our sons have been looking for houses in the Twin Cities MN area. Older son purchased one in Feb. Youngest lost four bidding battles until getting under contract last week.

My wife and I never were involved in a market like this Sellers market.

These surges and bubbles and drops are not good. I don’t try to time the stock market. I certainly would not recommend timing the real estate market.

Idaho is beautiful but 30% annual run ups in real estate?  That is crazy.  This whole thing seems like a bubble but how do you know for sure when the music is going to stop in this property game of musical chairs ?

SwaneeSR


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[pecunia]

ok so I'm joining this club:

As a very much a newbie to investment and to FIRE all guidance highly appreciated. I'm currently living in Thailand with my Thai wife and we are in the process of moving to Finland January 2022 and RE there (or atleast try it out and if we don't like it then look for some other place).

Jan 2021 - 1.19m$
Feb 2021 - 1.23m$
Mar 2021 - 1.28m$
Apr 2021 - 1.35m$
May 2021 - 2.65m$

I can't really see hitting 4m$ anytime soon if ever, but 3m might be possible. By the end of this year my work will mostly dry up (by my own decision) and I might do some consulting here and there (tech), but mostly will try to learn the life that doesn't involve me running around like a headless chicken and getting peptic ulcers from stress.

What currency is that in?

Those are some, frankly, pretty unbelievable numbers if it's in dollars.    And if they are accurate, why wouldn't you think you would hit 4 million at that rate of growth?

Those are USD, I do my math in EUR and then convert to USD for the purpose of this forum. Thing is that my work is drying up and I do some consulting for 120$/hr for next 6-7 months but after that I would have to live from the savings/investments.

Welcome - You are certainly doing something right.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

ok so I'm joining this club:

As a very much a newbie to investment and to FIRE all guidance highly appreciated. I'm currently living in Thailand with my Thai wife and we are in the process of moving to Finland January 2022 and RE there (or atleast try it out and if we don't like it then look for some other place).

Jan 2021 - 1.19m$
Feb 2021 - 1.23m$
Mar 2021 - 1.28m$
Apr 2021 - 1.35m$
May 2021 - 2.65m$

I can't really see hitting 4m$ anytime soon if ever, but 3m might be possible. By the end of this year my work will mostly dry up (by my own decision) and I might do some consulting here and there (tech), but mostly will try to learn the life that doesn't involve me running around like a headless chicken and getting peptic ulcers from stress.

What currency is that in?

Those are some, frankly, pretty unbelievable numbers if it's in dollars.    And if they are accurate, why wouldn't you think you would hit 4 million at that rate of growth?

Those are USD, I do my math in EUR and then convert to USD for the purpose of this forum. Thing is that my work is drying up and I do some consulting for 120$/hr for next 6-7 months but after that I would have to live from the savings/investments.

What Swordguy is getting at is that you doubled your peak NW in one month.  On top of that, you seem to think 3M and 4M are neigh impossible...  At that rate, common sense seems to say that you'll hit 3M by the end of this year just doing whatever you've been doing up to April, and you'll exceed 4M next month if you do what you just did again...  Care to elaborate?

[farmecologist]

Well, I'll be damned. I've got to share this somewhere and this feels like a good spot. Zillow estimates are pretty accurate for our properties these days. Lately, our rentals seem to be zooming up in value, so I ran the numbers on them all. The total estimate is $3.1M. Our mortgage balances are $500k total, so roughly $2.6M net.

I know we don't like to use illiquid assets for this thread, but dang!

Related: I've mentioned before that the Redfin estimate for our primary home is about $300k below Zillow, which is nuts. Because I follow the market, I know that even the Zestimate is low. Weird, but in a good way.

Congrats!  This is great news!  Home prices are definitely up nationwide.    I think the mainstream news is saying 10-11% across the board.  If you happen to own real estate in Phoenix or Boise, 10% is old news.   They are up 30% or more year over year. 
 https://www.weknowboise.com/blog/home-prices-up-100k.html 

 Like stock market chatter, the talk is of the housing price bubble and how long can it last.  I just hope that zoning gets a major overhaul in all this flurry, so that home ownership,  a prime wealth building tool for many, is attainable for the average person.  The rise of the largish Single Family Home into the suburbs, and zoning that encourages urban sprawl into outlying areas, has caused a shortage of affordable higher density housing that gives lower income buyers a chance to jump into the game.   They are being left behind, and that's not good for anyone.    I would love to do a "cottage cluster" type development.  Little cute cottages arranged around a courtyard or  shared greenspace were commonplace in the beach town where I grew up.   They were oil worker housing in the 1950"s.  Current zoning would never allow those now, even if they were the most economically sound options, which is doubtful if land costs are high. 

.

It certainly is a sellers market...for now.  However, I just can't understand how buyers can afford these high prices ( especially first timers ).  Unfortunately, I think many folks are getting in waaaaaay over their head.  It's not quite the same as in 2008...as in I don't think the entire system will collapse if the bubble bursts...but damn it sure gives me a bad feeling.

I feel really bad for first time home buyers.  Back when we bought our first home there were developers who actually specialized in 'starter homes'.  You just don't see that these days.

[pecunia]

It certainly is a sellers market...for now.  However, I just can't understand how buyers can afford these high prices ( especially first timers ).  Unfortunately, I think many folks are getting in waaaaaay over their head.  It's not quite the same as in 2008...as in I don't think the entire system will collapse if the bubble bursts...but damn it sure gives me a bad feeling.

I feel really bad for first time home buyers.  Back when we bought our first home there were developers who actually specialized in 'starter homes'.  You just don't see that these days.


Are they still selling homes with Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS) as they were before the 2008 crash? 

[SwordGuy]

One reason is that mortgage interest rates are very low.   It makes monthly payments on high prices more affordable.

[Dicey]

It certainly is a sellers market...for now.  However, I just can't understand how buyers can afford these high prices ( especially first timers ).  Unfortunately, I think many folks are getting in waaaaaay over their head.  It's not quite the same as in 2008...as in I don't think the entire system will collapse if the bubble bursts...but damn it sure gives me a bad feeling.

I feel really bad for first time home buyers.  Back when we bought our first home there were developers who actually specialized in 'starter homes'.  You just don't see that these days.


Are they still selling homes with Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMS) as they were before the 2008 crash?

Just spoke with a friend who's been a mortgage broker for decades. She says no one wants them. They exist, but no one's buying them because they don't make sense, therefore you never hear about them. Chicken vs. egg.

And Sword Guy's right, people are buying the maximum PAYMENT they can afford qualify for.

@farmecologist, there are lots of things that are different this time. People have a lot more equity in their homes, because lenders insist on it.

Another driver is that housing starts never really recovered after the 2008 crash. For over a decade, fewer homes than normal have been added to the supply. The long term effects of that are driving up prices, but low mortgage rates are keeping payments about the same. The pandemic is making people want more space and WFH options are allowing them to seek it. Finally, FOMO is making people nuts.

Oh, and millennials are buying houses in far greater numbers than predicted. They're just doing it later. They wait until they get married and get pregnant or have a kid. Two houses on my street have sold recently. Watching the parade of parents with very young children and/or pregnant women (couples), was kind of eye-opening. And OMG, the cars they drive! Not a beater in the bunch.

Here's a CA wrinkle: It used to be that people could take their current (artificially low) tax basis with them, but only to certain counties. Now, it's anywhere within the state. We own rentals in the Palm Springs Area, which is much cheaper than LA or Orange County. People in the coastal communities are selling up, moving to the desert, buying a similar or nicer house for about 1/3 the price they got for their old house and they're taking their low tax base with them. It's causing a run on housing and prices are escalating in a way they haven't since 2002-2005. Yippee!

[Wile E. Coyote]

ok so I'm joining this club:

As a very much a newbie to investment and to FIRE all guidance highly appreciated. I'm currently living in Thailand with my Thai wife and we are in the process of moving to Finland January 2022 and RE there (or atleast try it out and if we don't like it then look for some other place).

Jan 2021 - 1.19m$
Feb 2021 - 1.23m$
Mar 2021 - 1.28m$
Apr 2021 - 1.35m$
May 2021 - 2.65m$

I can't really see hitting 4m$ anytime soon if ever, but 3m might be possible. By the end of this year my work will mostly dry up (by my own decision) and I might do some consulting here and there (tech), but mostly will try to learn the life that doesn't involve me running around like a headless chicken and getting peptic ulcers from stress.

What currency is that in?

Those are some, frankly, pretty unbelievable numbers if it's in dollars.    And if they are accurate, why wouldn't you think you would hit 4 million at that rate of growth?

Those are USD, I do my math in EUR and then convert to USD for the purpose of this forum. Thing is that my work is drying up and I do some consulting for 120$/hr for next 6-7 months but after that I would have to live from the savings/investments.

What Swordguy is getting at is that you doubled your peak NW in one month.  On top of that, you seem to think 3M and 4M are neigh impossible...  At that rate, common sense seems to say that you'll hit 3M by the end of this year just doing whatever you've been doing up to April, and you'll exceed 4M next month if you do what you just did again...  Care to elaborate?

You may have missed this, but Finntastic explained the 1-month jump here:

Thanks, the crazy ascension is due to the fact that I didn't list shares in my own company previous to last month as an asset, but now that I sold some and there is agreement for the rest it makes sense to add that as well.

[Fomerly known as something]

Well my house goes live for sale today.  I honestly don’t know how much it’s going to sell for other than at least $50,000 more than was my baseline when I began to think about moving to the West Coast last summer.

But some of the insanity is because of the run up in supplies.  A friend of a friend was going to build, their quote went from  $800,000 to $1.3 million.  They now have to wait for supplies to get cheaper.

[Much Fishing to Do]

Well, I'll be damned. I've got to share this somewhere and this feels like a good spot. Zillow estimates are pretty accurate for our properties these days. Lately, our rentals seem to be zooming up in value, so I ran the numbers on them all. The total estimate is $3.1M. Our mortgage balances are $500k total, so roughly $2.6M net.

I know we don't like to use illiquid assets for this thread, but dang!

Related: I've mentioned before that the Redfin estimate for our primary home is about $300k below Zillow, which is nuts. Because I follow the market, I know that even the Zestimate is low. Weird, but in a good way.

Wow, yeah, real estate definitely seemed to have a great year, and it would be interesting to actually compare redfin, zillow, etc with actual offers on a home.  Even if they are generally good its understandable if they cant keep up with the current changes given the fast pace. 

I don't think many on this thread would really reject using income producing real estate values in your number, that wouldn't make much sense to me esp. for a hard core RE investor.  I don't include my one rental property in my investments number (just my NW) but that's because its inherited and not really generating much income, renting it was just a way to pay the bills on it until we decided what to do with it.

[Dancin'Dog]

I'm surprised that people are eager to build new homes while construction prices are so crazy expensive.  We've been lazily selling off waterfront lots, meaning we didn't bother listing them.  We just put for sale signs on them.  The last 2 lots were priced at $1.33M last Fall & buyers seemed to think that they were overpriced.  We raised them to $1.43M a few months ago & have one under contract, with a guy that couldn't afford it last Fall! 


I've been getting interest in the last remaining lot, so hopefully, it will be sold soon & I can retire.  ;)


I don't understand why anyone would be interested in building now.  Guess they got lucky in the stock market or something. 

[SuperSecretName]

I don't think many on this thread would really reject using income producing real estate values in your number, that wouldn't make much sense to me esp. for a hard core RE investor.

I count the equity in my investment property (at 95% value, after commissions, recapture and CG taxes), but do not include the equity in my primary residence.

[pecunia]

Maybe all those people buying and building homes have looked at this time and compared it to a generation ago.  When the inflation hit, those high house payments kind of shrunk.  Although nobody liked the ever changing prices, the house payment kind of didn't seem so bad after a while.

I've heard lumber price is starting to drop a bit.  Maybe, building won't be quite so bad.

[Dicey]

Well, I'll be damned. I've got to share this somewhere and this feels like a good spot. Zillow estimates are pretty accurate for our properties these days. Lately, our rentals seem to be zooming up in value, so I ran the numbers on them all. The total estimate is $3.1M. Our mortgage balances are $500k total, so roughly $2.6M net.

I know we don't like to use illiquid assets for this thread, but dang!

Related: I've mentioned before that the Redfin estimate for our primary home is about $300k below Zillow, which is nuts. Because I follow the market, I know that even the Zestimate is low. Weird, but in a good way.

Wow, yeah, real estate definitely seemed to have a great year, and it would be interesting to actually compare redfin, zillow, etc with actual offers on a home.  Even if they are generally good its understandable if they cant keep up with the current changes given the fast pace. 

I don't think many on this thread would really reject using income producing real estate values in your number, that wouldn't make much sense to me esp. for a hard core RE investor.  I don't include my one rental property in my investments number (just my NW) but that's because its inherited and not really generating much income, renting it was just a way to pay the bills on it until we decided what to do with it.

Redfin "knows" the markets I watch and feeds me updates every day. In my home area, virtually everything goes over asking, often way over. RF also notifies me of price reductions, which rarely happen these days.

The area where our rentals are is a completely different animal. It used to be you could assume $15k under asking automatically and no one was offended. Inventory used to turn a lot slower, and of course there were a lot more properties available. Current inventory levels are 10% of normal, things are selling much faster and fetching over asking. Our MO used to be to sort the listings by the longest Time on Market. The last two houses, purchased in 2015 and 2016, were on the market for over a year, and we got each of them for $100k below the original asking price. Fat chance now.

I mentioned on another thread that my brother just bought a house in the PHX area. They had to include that they would pay any difference between selling price and appraisal out of pocket, which cost them $100k extra at closing. They can afford it, but that's crazy. The competing offer promised that if they couldn't secure a loan within 30 days they would pay cash, but they capped out at $50k (IIRC) over appraisal, so the seller took my brother's offer and the deal is done.

[Fomerly known as something]

Zillow is not even close, Redfin for my area is worse. 

Also my stomach is queezy because I just listed for $25k more that I expected.  (I’m following my real estate agents advice).

[2sk22]

When we bought our current house in 1996, the only mortgage we could get was a 7% 5-year ARM (ie it became adjustable after five years). 

In hindsight, we lucked out: 1996 was the very trough of the market. Furthermore, after the Dotcom crash, interest rates plunged in 2001 right at the moment when our mortgage interest rate became variable - so we did not even have to refinance immediately. And then after the 2008 crash, we refinanced into a fixed rate mortgage at a low rate.

[Fomerly known as something]

When we bought our current house in 1996, the only mortgage we could get was a 7% 5-year ARM (ie it became adjustable after five years). 

In hindsight, we lucked out: 1996 was the very trough of the market. Furthermore, after the Dotcom crash, interest rates plunged in 2001 right at the moment when our mortgage interest rate became variable - so we did not even have to refinance immediately. And then after the 2008 crash, we refinanced into a fixed rate mortgage at a low rate.

I was mad in 2008 that I had gone with a 7 year arm instead of a 3 year arm.  My rate dropped to somewhere in the 3% range when it adjusted.

[JoJoP]

My very first house had an ARM mortgage, but it went lower when it readjusted.   Like most people who signed on to the ARM mortgage, I actually had no idea what the pitfalls could be.  It was my first home and IIRC, the mortgage was about 50K, the payment was under $400 a month. I had it for a few years before I paid it off, and it never increased.  I just got lucky with my timing and it never went up.   

Speaking of lucky...   We bought several properties last year that were very good deals at the time. Twelve short months ago.  You know what this year has been like for Real Estate.   It's been nothing but a run up ever since.   Our timing was very fortunate.    That makes up for the wound licking/terrible timing when I sold so much stock in March 2020.    I just can't seem to win in the stock market and my real estate is knocking it out of the park. 

@GreenEggs , congrats on the $100K increase per lot since last fall.   They must be gorgeous to hold 1.43m price tags.  Aren't you paying hefty capital gains on them?

@Dicey - your brother must have really wanted that Phoenix house.   I guess waiving appraisal contingencies is the new normal, though, especially in a place where demand exceeds supply so notably. 

[SwordGuy]

Decided to update our Net Worth spreadsheet with the new property values, just for fun.   Golly, boy, howdy!    That was a nice jump in value.

We're not far from $3M in net worth.

[Dancin'Dog]

My very first house had an ARM mortgage, but it went lower when it readjusted.   Like most people who signed on to the ARM mortgage, I actually had no idea what the pitfalls could be.  It was my first home and IIRC, the mortgage was about 50K, the payment was under $400 a month. I had it for a few years before I paid it off, and it never increased.  I just got lucky with my timing and it never went up.   

Speaking of lucky...   We bought several properties last year that were very good deals at the time. Twelve short months ago.  You know what this year has been like for Real Estate.   It's been nothing but a run up ever since.   Our timing was very fortunate.    That makes up for the wound licking/terrible timing when I sold so much stock in March 2020.    I just can't seem to win in the stock market and my real estate is knocking it out of the park. 

@GreenEggs , congrats on the $100K increase per lot since last fall.   They must be gorgeous to hold 1.43m price tags.  Aren't you paying hefty capital gains on them?

@Dicey - your brother must have really wanted that Phoenix house.   I guess waiving appraisal contingencies is the new normal, though, especially in a place where demand exceeds supply so notably.

They have a sunset view of two islands that are about 1/2 a mile away, so the sun sets behind the islands, and there's about 3 miles of open water beyond.  I haven't seen a nicer sunset on the lake.  They're also located on the closest exit to Charlotte, which is the main reason they're worth so much. 


Capital gains taxes are just part of selling property.  A realtor that I'd discussed possibly listing them with wasn't sure that they'd sell for more than $1.0M each, because they're not in the country club neighborhood.  We'll end up getting 25% more without giving 6% to agents, so that covers the taxes & a little extra for my time.  ;) 

[Much Fishing to Do]

Maybe all those people buying and building homes have looked at this time and compared it to a generation ago.  When the inflation hit, those high house payments kind of shrunk.  Although nobody liked the ever changing prices, the house payment kind of didn't seem so bad after a while.

I've heard lumber price is starting to drop a bit.  Maybe, building won't be quite so bad.

That's a good point.  My dad bought a new home in '73 on a 30 year mortgage and I remember 15 years later when I was headed off to college and he was talking expenses to me in real numbers for the first time, what really stood out was him saying the mortgage payment wasn't really a big expense anymore (b/c of inflation) even though the payment was the same as it always was, and he figured one of his biggest money mistakes was not buying a more expensive home at the time.

[JoJoP]

Maybe all those people buying and building homes have looked at this time and compared it to a generation ago.  When the inflation hit, those high house payments kind of shrunk.  Although nobody liked the ever changing prices, the house payment kind of didn't seem so bad after a while.

I've heard lumber price is starting to drop a bit.  Maybe, building won't be quite so bad.

That's a good point.  My dad bought a new home in '73 on a 30 year mortgage and I remember 15 years later when I was headed off to college and he was talking expenses to me in real numbers for the first time, what really stood out was him saying the mortgage payment wasn't really a big expense anymore (b/c of inflation) even though the payment was the same as it always was, and he figured one of his biggest money mistakes was not buying a more expensive home at the time.

So true!  Inflation just creeps in.   What's that house worth now?  10x more?  And the payment was probably about $1000.    Dinner and a movie used to be $20 bucks!    Even the Fidelity retirement calculator allows for "future dollars" or "today's dollars" in the calculations.  They know that inflation is inevitable.   The difference is millions at the end. 

A fixed asset like real estate will rise along with other hard costs.   I consider our biggest mistakes all the houses we didn't buy in 2009-2012 because they were $10k or so over what we would pay.  We turned down a couple of nice houses that were $210K, and we would only pay $200K.   Now I'd have 300K in equity instead of 290 on those houses.  Sheesh!  Who knew?  Real Estate is considered an excellent hedge against inflation.  Inflation both mitigates the payment as a percentage of household expenditures and causes the dollar value of the physical asset to rise.  Rents keep pace with inflation also.   Houses that rented for $1500 ten years ago are now $2500.   In fact, the rule of thumb used to be that rent/housing should be 1/4 of your income, now it's 1/3.

[Dicey]

Maybe all those people buying and building homes have looked at this time and compared it to a generation ago.  When the inflation hit, those high house payments kind of shrunk.  Although nobody liked the ever changing prices, the house payment kind of didn't seem so bad after a while.

I've heard lumber price is starting to drop a bit.  Maybe, building won't be quite so bad.

That's a good point.  My dad bought a new home in '73 on a 30 year mortgage and I remember 15 years later when I was headed off to college and he was talking expenses to me in real numbers for the first time, what really stood out was him saying the mortgage payment wasn't really a big expense anymore (b/c of inflation) even though the payment was the same as it always was, and he figured one of his biggest money mistakes was not buying a more expensive home at the time.

So true!  Inflation just creeps in.   What's that house worth now?  10x more?  And the payment was probably about $1000.    Dinner and a movie used to be $20 bucks!    Even the Fidelity retirement calculator allows for "future dollars" or "today's dollars" in the calculations.  They know that inflation is inevitable.   The difference is millions at the end. 

A fixed asset like real estate will rise along with other hard costs.   I consider our biggest mistakes all the houses we didn't buy in 2009-2012 because they were $10k or so over what we would pay.  We turned down a couple of nice houses that were $210K, and we would only pay $200K.   Now I'd have 300K in equity instead of 290 on those houses.  Sheesh!  Who knew?  Real Estate is considered an excellent hedge against inflation.  Inflation both mitigates the payment as a percentage of household expenditures and causes the dollar value of the physical asset to rise.  Rents keep pace with inflation also.   Houses that rented for $1500 ten years ago are now $2500.   In fact, the rule of thumb used to be that rent/housing should be 1/4 of your income, now it's 1/3.

Lol, you made me do a little digging. When we were shopping for our house in 2013, we identified two contenders. The one we chose was $925k and the current Zestimate is $1.8M. The other house sold for $950k and the current Zestimate is $2.0M. I always had a nagging feeling we chose the wrong house. Except...

The other house was in a posher semi-custom development, but it was further away from the center of town and nothing was within walking distance. It was also 12 years older and needed updating. All the countertops were tile and the kitchen layout was wonky. The buyers did a whole house remodel immediately after purchasing it.

The other house was a five year old custom built house within walking distance to DH's work. When we bought, it was overbuilt for the neighborhood. Since then about 20 similar houses have been built in the general area, helping our comps.

So, did we choose the wrong house? Based on just the numbers, you might think so, but I'd do it again in a heartbeat. The ability to walk to work and not deal with a Bay Area commute is pretty amazing.

I'm glad I did that little comparison. Choosing the right house for us literally gave us a better quality of life, even if we might have made a few more bucks on the other one.

Thanks, @JoJoP!

[JoJoP]

Maybe all those people buying and building homes have looked at this time and compared it to a generation ago.  When the inflation hit, those high house payments kind of shrunk.  Although nobody liked the ever changing prices, the house payment kind of didn't seem so bad after a while.

I've heard lumber price is starting to drop a bit.  Maybe, building won't be quite so bad.

That's a good point.  My dad bought a new home in '73 on a 30 year mortgage and I remember 15 years later when I was headed off to college and he was talking expenses to me in real numbers for the first time, what really stood out was him saying the mortgage payment wasn't really a big expense anymore (b/c of inflation) even though the payment was the same as it always was, and he figured one of his biggest money mistakes was not buying a more expensive home at the time.

So true!  Inflation just creeps in.   What's that house worth now?  10x more?  And the payment was probably about $1000.    Dinner and a movie used to be $20 bucks!    Even the Fidelity retirement calculator allows for "future dollars" or "today's dollars" in the calculations.  They know that inflation is inevitable.   The difference is millions at the end. 

A fixed asset like real estate will rise along with other hard costs.   I consider our biggest mistakes all the houses we didn't buy in 2009-2012 because they were $10k or so over what we would pay.  We turned down a couple of nice houses that were $210K, and we would only pay $200K.   Now I'd have 300K in equity instead of 290 on those houses.  Sheesh!  Who knew?  Real Estate is considered an excellent hedge against inflation.  Inflation both mitigates the payment as a percentage of household expenditures and causes the dollar value of the physical asset to rise.  Rents keep pace with inflation also.   Houses that rented for $1500 ten years ago are now $2500.   In fact, the rule of thumb used to be that rent/housing should be 1/4 of your income, now it's 1/3.

Lol, you made me do a little digging. When we were shopping for our house in 2013, we identified two contenders. The one we chose was $925k and the current Zestimate is $1.8M. The other house sold for $950k and the current Zestimate is $2.0M. I always had a nagging feeling we chose the wrong house. Except...

The other house was in a posher semi-custom development, but it was further away from the center of town and nothing was within walking distance. It was also 12 years older and needed updating. All the countertops were tile and the kitchen layout was wonky. The buyers did a whole house remodel immediately after purchasing it.

The other house was a five year old custom built house within walking distance to DH's work. When we bought, it was overbuilt for the neighborhood. Since then about 20 similar houses have been built in the general area, helping our comps.

So, did we choose the wrong house? Based on just the numbers, you might think so, but I'd do it again in a heartbeat. The ability to walk to work and not deal with a Bay Area commute is pretty amazing.

I'm glad I did that little comparison. Choosing the right house for us literally gave us a better quality of life, even if we might have made a few more bucks on the other one.

Thanks, @JoJoP!

I'd say you absolutely chose the right house, Dicey!   Quality of life is a huge factor,  maybe THE huge factor, and walking distance to work for your husband is a peace of mind choice as well as a savings in car costs, time, stress, etc etc etc.  The rest is just fun to think about, the what ifs... Of course you know that or you wouldn't be on this forum where quality of life vs. the rat race is the major theme.   

MMM, the boss himself,  wrote a post about commuting that was excellent.  I discussed it nearly verbatim with my commuting child.   

 Plus road rage is a real hazard.  I was just reading the news that some idiot shot and killed a little kid going to kindergarten because his mom flashed the bird.  Truly heartbreaking. 

[arcturus]

Hello folks, new member here; have been reading the thread a bit and this seems like a good group.

My story -- I got a bit of a late start on things with a divorce several years back.  At 52 years old and NW is conservatively at $2.6M, with about $2.1M actively invested and the remaining $0.5M in home equity. 

I'm probably a bit more focused on the FI aspects of things, although I do see "retirement" from the corporate world in the next 5 years.  We will then see what's next.  In the meantime, still work to be done in getting kids all the way thru college/grad school, as well as getting the mortgage and the spending under better control.

[arcturus]

Both our sons have been looking for houses in the Twin Cities MN area. Older son purchased one in Feb. Youngest lost four bidding battles until getting under contract last week.

My wife and I never were involved in a market like this Sellers market.

These surges and bubbles and drops are not good. I don’t try to time the stock market. I certainly would not recommend timing the real estate market.

Idaho is beautiful but 30% annual run ups in real estate?  That is crazy.  This whole thing seems like a bubble but how do you know for sure when the music is going to stop in this property game of musical chairs ?

SwaneeSR


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Agree that the Real Estate price movement is a real concern.  It is especially concerning because I would like to either by a second home or retire to a different location than my present one in the Midwest.  With some areas experiencing this type of property inflation it really impacts one's ability to do that.   If my home price is increasing at 6-7% per year (lately) and the target location (TBD) is increasing at 20%, wow, what an impact that has on purchasing power!

Its one of the items in my spreadsheet calc that is giving me pause on where my actual RE number is!   Good for those who are experiencing this property inflation but I agree with you -- for those on the outside looking in (whether new home buyers or "new to the area" home buyers), its a nightmare.   

As to Zillow estimates, I tend to never believe them.  My home is estimated at $1.3M on Zillow, but I estimate it about 20% lower for my spreadsheet....sounds like Zillow may be more accurate than I realize???

[texxan1]

I hate the be the big white elephant in the room, but is your Thai wife gonna like finland..... After living in thailand myself a while, i wish i was there and NOT in the states or the UK... My condo in chiang mai misses me badly....

I vote for staying in thailand lol

ok so I'm joining this club:

As a very much a newbie to investment and to FIRE all guidance highly appreciated. I'm currently living in Thailand with my Thai wife and we are in the process of moving to Finland January 2022 and RE there (or atleast try it out and if we don't like it then look for some other place).

Jan 2021 - 1.19m$
Feb 2021 - 1.23m$
Mar 2021 - 1.28m$
Apr 2021 - 1.35m$
May 2021 - 2.65m$

I can't really see hitting 4m$ anytime soon if ever, but 3m might be possible. By the end of this year my work will mostly dry up (by my own decision) and I might do some consulting here and there (tech), but mostly will try to learn the life that doesn't involve me running around like a headless chicken and getting peptic ulcers from stress.

What currency is that in?

Those are some, frankly, pretty unbelievable numbers if it's in dollars.    And if they are accurate, why wouldn't you think you would hit 4 million at that rate of growth?

Those are USD, I do my math in EUR and then convert to USD for the purpose of this forum. Thing is that my work is drying up and I do some consulting for 120$/hr for next 6-7 months but after that I would have to live from the savings/investments.

[Exflyboy]

@texxan1 Chiang Mai.. I was there for two weeks.. One of my fav places..:)

[soccerluvof4]

Houses in our area are selling closer to 30% and more than what Zillow is saying. I dont think Zillow is keeping up. Never looked at Redfin. Actually was at a gathering last night and a realtor was there as well as a few contractor. The realtor actually is the grandson of the person who started the real-estate company which is the largest by far in our area. Him and he the contractors both said the same things. Unlike 2008 when this bubble bursts it wont be anything like last time. Houses will drop but prices at least in our area were down for so long that they see it slowing down but not crashing. They simply cant build houses fast enough and if anything its slowed down a bit because people are tired of missing out and are getting out now focusing on other things. But as others have said the Millenniums are just really getting started in this housing rise and they have the money to spend. Going to be interesting for sure.

[Much Fishing to Do]

Maybe all those people buying and building homes have looked at this time and compared it to a generation ago.  When the inflation hit, those high house payments kind of shrunk.  Although nobody liked the ever changing prices, the house payment kind of didn't seem so bad after a while.

I've heard lumber price is starting to drop a bit.  Maybe, building won't be quite so bad.

That's a good point.  My dad bought a new home in '73 on a 30 year mortgage and I remember 15 years later when I was headed off to college and he was talking expenses to me in real numbers for the first time, what really stood out was him saying the mortgage payment wasn't really a big expense anymore (b/c of inflation) even though the payment was the same as it always was, and he figured one of his biggest money mistakes was not buying a more expensive home at the time.

What's that house worth now?  10x more?  And the payment was probably about $1000.   

Heh, I think he bought the house for about $35k (so with 20% down had about a $30k 30 year mortgage). So like a $250/mth payment (well, maybe more like 350/mth at those interest rates).  I'd say today it is prob worth about $250k-$300k

[Fomerly known as something]

Zillow isn’t keeping up in my neighborhood, it’s weird as most of the area around me is a higher price than my hood you’d think if anything the zip code would have me higher, unless they don’t do well with the fact that The North section is still pretty rural and the south is suburban.

[chasesfish]

Both our sons have been looking for houses in the Twin Cities MN area. Older son purchased one in Feb. Youngest lost four bidding battles until getting under contract last week.

My wife and I never were involved in a market like this Sellers market.

These surges and bubbles and drops are not good. I don’t try to time the stock market. I certainly would not recommend timing the real estate market.

Idaho is beautiful but 30% annual run ups in real estate?  That is crazy.  This whole thing seems like a bubble but how do you know for sure when the music is going to stop in this property game of musical chairs ?

SwaneeSR


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think this is going to run a little bit further.  I've been so wrong on housing and finally had the data change my mind...

The oldest of the baby boomers are 75...

There was a high birth rate that drops off after 1994...

You have a huge number of people born between 1980 and 1994 that are trying to settle into their suburban kid-raising house and it's happening a few years before the baby boomers start leaving their homes (many of which will be leaving involuntarily).

An imbalance of a couple of percent between supply and demand in either direction can cause bigger pricing swings.

Do I think we get another generational sale on real estate?  It depends.   We aren't yet seeing buy side speculation, sell side speculation (non builders adding home inventory), and the government is only going so far in pushing affordable housing (ie subprime) loans.   I think prices will come down, but from what peak?

Its also easy to say "oh, just rent"....but the prices are getting so out of hand for single family inventory relative to rents plenty of landlords are putting their rental units up for sale.

Interesting times

[Eco_eco]

Posting to join the $2m to $4m club. Our recent history is:

TNW:
Sep 18 - $1m
Sep 19 - $1.15m
Sep 20 - $1.5m
Jun 21- $2.3m <--- big jump here due to real estate craziness

I assume housing values will drop again sometime soon, but hopefully not enough to drop us back below $2m.

Reaching $4m is largely on automatic pilot for us. Over the coming 20 years the loans on our rental properties alone would take us over $4m, even if invested not a single dollar more.

[swaneesr]

Both our sons have been looking for houses in the Twin Cities MN area. Older son purchased one in Feb. Youngest lost four bidding battles until getting under contract last week.

My wife and I never were involved in a market like this Sellers market.

These surges and bubbles and drops are not good. I don’t try to time the stock market. I certainly would not recommend timing the real estate market.

Idaho is beautiful but 30% annual run ups in real estate?  That is crazy.  This whole thing seems like a bubble but how do you know for sure when the music is going to stop in this property game of musical chairs ?

SwaneeSR


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I think this is going to run a little bit further.  I've been so wrong on housing and finally had the data change my mind...

The oldest of the baby boomers are 75...

There was a high birth rate that drops off after 1994...

You have a huge number of people born between 1980 and 1994 that are trying to settle into their suburban kid-raising house and it's happening a few years before the baby boomers start leaving their homes (many of which will be leaving involuntarily).

An imbalance of a couple of percent between supply and demand in either direction can cause bigger pricing swings.

Do I think we get another generational sale on real estate?  It depends.   We aren't yet seeing buy side speculation, sell side speculation (non builders adding home inventory), and the government is only going so far in pushing affordable housing (ie subprime) loans.   I think prices will come down, but from what peak?

Its also easy to say "oh, just rent"....but the prices are getting so out of hand for single family inventory relative to rents plenty of landlords are putting their rental units up for sale.

Interesting times

Chasesfish , you may be right…..


glad my DW and I can sit this market out. We will not be making any real estate moves for a couple years.

Swanee


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Finntastic]

I hate the be the big white elephant in the room, but is your Thai wife gonna like finland..... After living in thailand myself a while, i wish i was there and NOT in the states or the UK... My condo in chiang mai misses me badly....

I vote for staying in thailand lol

ok so I'm joining this club:

As a very much a newbie to investment and to FIRE all guidance highly appreciated. I'm currently living in Thailand with my Thai wife and we are in the process of moving to Finland January 2022 and RE there (or atleast try it out and if we don't like it then look for some other place).

Jan 2021 - 1.19m$
Feb 2021 - 1.23m$
Mar 2021 - 1.28m$
Apr 2021 - 1.35m$
May 2021 - 2.65m$

I can't really see hitting 4m$ anytime soon if ever, but 3m might be possible. By the end of this year my work will mostly dry up (by my own decision) and I might do some consulting here and there (tech), but mostly will try to learn the life that doesn't involve me running around like a headless chicken and getting peptic ulcers from stress.

What currency is that in?

Those are some, frankly, pretty unbelievable numbers if it's in dollars.    And if they are accurate, why wouldn't you think you would hit 4 million at that rate of growth?

Those are USD, I do my math in EUR and then convert to USD for the purpose of this forum. Thing is that my work is drying up and I do some consulting for 120$/hr for next 6-7 months but after that I would have to live from the savings/investments.

It was my wife's idea to move to Finland, I wanted to move to New Zealand. The only reason moving out from Thailand is the poor air quality and Finland happens to rank #2 in the world for air quality. We are going for 2 years trial and if we don't like it then we move somewhere else, Northern Italy been one of the options

[Finntastic]

@texxan1 Chiang Mai.. I was there for two weeks.. One of my fav places..:)

Chiang Mai has been my home for past 15 years =D

[evme]

It was my wife's idea to move to Finland, I wanted to move to New Zealand. The only reason moving out from Thailand is the poor air quality and Finland happens to rank #2 in the world for air quality.

Air quality is one reason why I want to move to Hawaii. They have some amazingly clean air there :)

[chasesfish]

It was my wife's idea to move to Finland, I wanted to move to New Zealand. The only reason moving out from Thailand is the poor air quality and Finland happens to rank #2 in the world for air quality.

Air quality is one reason why I want to move to Hawaii. They have some amazingly clean air there :)

+1 to this comment!

[pecunia]

I hate the be the big white elephant in the room, but is your Thai wife gonna like finland..... After living in thailand myself a while, i wish i was there and NOT in the states or the UK... My condo in chiang mai misses me badly....

I vote for staying in thailand lol

ok so I'm joining this club:

As a very much a newbie to investment and to FIRE all guidance highly appreciated. I'm currently living in Thailand with my Thai wife and we are in the process of moving to Finland January 2022 and RE there (or atleast try it out and if we don't like it then look for some other place).

Jan 2021 - 1.19m$
Feb 2021 - 1.23m$
Mar 2021 - 1.28m$
Apr 2021 - 1.35m$
May 2021 - 2.65m$

I can't really see hitting 4m$ anytime soon if ever, but 3m might be possible. By the end of this year my work will mostly dry up (by my own decision) and I might do some consulting here and there (tech), but mostly will try to learn the life that doesn't involve me running around like a headless chicken and getting peptic ulcers from stress.

What currency is that in?

Those are some, frankly, pretty unbelievable numbers if it's in dollars.    And if they are accurate, why wouldn't you think you would hit 4 million at that rate of growth?

Those are USD, I do my math in EUR and then convert to USD for the purpose of this forum. Thing is that my work is drying up and I do some consulting for 120$/hr for next 6-7 months but after that I would have to live from the savings/investments.

It was my wife's idea to move to Finland, I wanted to move to New Zealand. The only reason moving out from Thailand is the poor air quality and Finland happens to rank #2 in the world for air quality. We are going for 2 years trial and if we don't like it then we move somewhere else, Northern Italy been one of the options

Those short days in Winter could be bad, but the long days in Summer could be good.

[ysette9]

We aren’t that far north in Seattle but coming from California it is still quite the change. The summers are the worst because the older kids don’t go to sleep until the sun sets (21:30 sometimes) and the littlest one wakes when the sun gets up (5:00 right now). I love sleeping in winter with all that darkness.

[Fomerly known as something]

Offers for my home will be considered today.  There hasn’t been a huge amount of showings, but the last house that sold in the neighborhood only had 15 total and got 2 offers.

In a Zillow twist, the estimate increased 100k since it’s been on the market, so I now it’s 30k above asking instead of 70k below asking.

[2sk22]

I just bought a car for about $37k which is about 0.6% of our invested net worth. And just to think that 34 years ago, I bought my first car, a 7 year old Honda Civic for about $2000. That car lasted for 4 years and 40,000 miles and died only when I started work so it did its job very well.

[Bateaux]

On an 84 hour straight stint of night shifts.  I've considered selling everything.  I mean everything while it's a fools real estate market.  If I were single it would be done.  I'd live like a nomad.

[SwordGuy]

On an 84 hour straight stint of night shifts.  I've considered selling everything.  I mean everything while it's a fools real estate market.  If I were single it would be done.  I'd live like a nomad.

Pretty sure you can afford to end this madness whenever you want...

[Dancin'Dog]

On an 84 hour straight stint of night shifts.  I've considered selling everything.  I mean everything while it's a fools real estate market. If I were single it would be done.  I'd live like a nomad.

How often do we use the phrase?  lol

[itchyfeet]

100 pages into this thread, and 4 years down the road I’m still working and pondering FIREing.

Things have not really panned out as planned.

Walking away from a job is proving harder than I imagined 100 pages ago.

[pecunia]

100 pages into this thread, and 4 years down the road I’m still working and pondering FIREing.

Things have not really panned out as planned.

Walking away from a job is proving harder than I imagined 100 pages ago.

You must not hate your job.  That's not so bad.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

100 pages into this thread, and 4 years down the road I’m still working and pondering FIREing.

Things have not really panned out as planned.

Walking away from a job is proving harder than I imagined 100 pages ago.

You must not hate your job.  That's not so bad.

I get the impression, most folks want to hit the FI number one minute and flash the middle finger the next.  I totally get that from previous employers, projects, managers, co-workers...  but since 2007, I've had a really great work situation.  I guess it took putting up with 11 years of mostly crap to get me to appreciate how good things are now.  Hit FI years ago (don't even update my spreadsheets anymore) and still enjoy working. 

I'm not quite tap dancing in to the office like Warren or pulling the ER rip cord so I can spend more time on my 500M yacht and travel to space like Bezos, but I'm not going to complain :)  I'm already plenty wasteful with money, indulging in a lot of wants since I no longer have any needs that I can't afford.  Definitely one of those folks that have gone soft given the generous market conditions year after year...

[Much Fishing to Do]

I just bought a car for about $37k which is about 0.6% of our invested net worth. And just to think that 34 years ago, I bought my first car, a 7 year old Honda Civic for about $2000. That car lasted for 4 years and 40,000 miles and died only when I started work so it did its job very well.

Yeah, isn't it crazy that plopping down cash for a new car may easily move your net worth less than the market does ON THAT DAY.

i had a Honda civic hatchback that was a trooper for me as well long ago.  And the gas mileage was a bonus, I remember the first time a fill up cost me $10 I couldn't believe it (had like a 10 gallon tank or something? but would go forever, like when hybrids came out I couldn't believe the mileage they were bragging about given it was a lot worse than that what i was already getting with that civic).