Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!

[flyingaway]

This is probably the time to experiment a retirement idea of cutting back spending at tough times. This time, we are forced to cut spending on travel and leisure activities. Frankly speaking, I don't like that idea.

So, I prefer to work for a few more years if needed and if I can, to have a cushion to support a lifestyle that I want to have in retirement. For me, forced to stay at home, either because of virus or because of lack of money, is worse than working at a job.

[LWYRUP]

You all must have conservative asset allocations.

I am still down $230k from the top on a 50% US / 40% foreign / 10% bond allocation.  And there was no panic selling (in fact, I rebalanced on the way down, including the literal day of the market lows).

And I'm not even allowed in the club anymore if you just look at liquid assets, and I am still working / contributing (not FIRE). 

The sad thing is that I was shitting bricks about the coronavirus (I literally took a day off work in the third week of February to buy stuff at Costco because I was worried about what was coming), but I was trained for over a decade to follow the buy-and-hold mantra through hell or high water and I did. 

[SwordGuy]

You all must have conservative asset allocations.

Not really, just not limited to stocks and bond funds. :)


Personal House(s) 11.73%   Will drop when we sell the house we just moved out of.
Stock/bonds       46.34%
Cash equivalents   2.76%
REI               38.02%
Cars               1.15%

[EscapeVelocity2020]

This is probably the time to experiment a retirement idea of cutting back spending at tough times. This time, we are forced to cut spending on travel and leisure activities. Frankly speaking, I don't like that idea.

So, I prefer to work for a few more years if needed and if I can, to have a cushion to support a lifestyle that I want to have in retirement. For me, forced to stay at home, either because of virus or because of lack of money, is worse than working at a job.

I hear what you're saying, but I get the impression from reading other FIRE blogs that this situation is a significant step down from belt-tightening.  Cutting back might be a little uncomfortable, but there is at least a possibility to substitute or play the game better.  Maybe sign up for a credit card reward or shop harder for flights.  Sit in economy vs. business class.  Drive instead of fly.

What we're up against now is having very limited choices.  I'd actually really like to go to a movie theater at some point or sit down at a restaurant, which I'd still indulge in even if tightening the belt, so I think you're being overly negative on ER by thinking it might be like quarantine.

[Bateaux]

Probably a time to look at expenses.   The 4% rule is looking mighty rich with the projected interests rates.  Withdrawl rates of 2.5 to 3 percent may be in order.   If you hold bond mutual funds, a rise in rates will also cut fund prices.   Annuities don't pay crap right now.  Perfect time to plan your FIRE.

[JoJoP]

This is probably the time to experiment a retirement idea of cutting back spending at tough times. This time, we are forced to cut spending on travel and leisure activities. Frankly speaking, I don't like that idea.

So, I prefer to work for a few more years if needed and if I can, to have a cushion to support a lifestyle that I want to have in retirement. For me, forced to stay at home, either because of virus or because of lack of money, is worse than working at a job.

Like you, we don't mind working a bit to live the life we want.  We're not punching a time clock and are self employed, so we can pick and choose the workload and just enjoy the payoffs.  There's a lot of teasing in this thread about the One More Year syndrome, but we do what works for us. 

We had a massive travel budget, and, as of this moment, all but 2 domestic trips have been cancelled.  The 2 remaining are likely to also be cancelled, but are still months away.  This factor alone gave a big boost to the budget. 

A lot of our finances are in flux right now.  We just got paid off for a Real Estate loan we've been carrying for 10+ years, which was paying about $1500 a month just in interest (7% interest, I'll miss that so much).  So we paid off our last and final mortgage, and that's about a break even from the income loss.  We are truly debt free!  And we're buying another rental.  And I sold stocks and bought bonds.   In short, lots of stuff rearranging financially and at such an uncertain time.  I feel like we've got to keep our reserves high just in case the tenants hit additional hardships or their unemployment drags on. 

  We're stopping to smell the roses and enjoying our beautiful home and garden, as well as outdoor activities.  I'm blessed.   I can live like this for a long while. 

[flyingaway]

Probably a time to look at expenses.   The 4% rule is looking mighty rich with the projected interests rates.  Withdrawl rates of 2.5 to 3 percent may be in order.   If you hold bond mutual funds, a rise in rates will also cut fund prices.   Annuities don't pay crap right now.  Perfect time to plan your FIRE.

So if the 4% rule was not good in February, it may be good now. If you have to work on 3% based on the current portfolio, I don't know why this whatever percentage rule matters anymore.

I use the 4% rule as a guideline to tell me that I may be financially independent at that point. I may or may not retire, dependent upon a few factors. I certainly will not actually follow the 4% rule to the letter in retirement withdrawal.

[chasesfish]

I'm down $500,000 and still enjoying being done with my high stress corporate job.   There are so many levers that can be pulled for income and for expenses.

[Buffaloski Boris]

It really is a crazy situation to be in, one where an investor can't win.  If you want to get out, then you're missing out on what the Fed promises to be a free-for all buffet lunch for the market.  The Fed clearly said today that economic activity is too low, businesses need to be kept alive, and Congress has to get more money out to consumers. 

But if you stay invested, you know you are holding assets that are being propped up by issuing debt.  The government may be able to issue a lot of debt for a long time, but what if they can't?  It is common sense that EPS expansion can't go on forever - investors ultimately want to own companies that increase earnings over time.  In the US, the earnings come from consumers (or exports) and that's all gone in an unprecedented way.  No one has any idea what earnings will be or how long it will take for things to return to 'normal'.  In the meantime, many businesses will simply be unable to make money, but still have to service debt, pay rents, pay employees...

So, do you hold your bets for a few more days/weeks/months, thinking there's probably another few trillion coming from the Fed and Congress or do you rationalize that you're already pretty lucky to be able to sell stuff at inflated prices and sit out the roller coaster ride?

If only bonds or real estate offered a viable alternative!  I'm sure there will be lots of great opportunities to buy stuff at reasonable prices at some point, I just hope I'm patient enough not to blow myself up in the meantime.  I really have no idea what a reasonable S&P500 level is until we get some idea of earnings, so if it falls, how do you know when it has hit the floor?

Exactly what I'm feeling.  All common sense is gone.

I cashed out about 25% of our total market holdings before the market dropped.  The writing on the wall was just way too clear about where the market was heading.  Then I watched the market tumble down and wished I had sold it all.  I've watched this insanely optimistic surge as prices rebound.  I couldn't stand it anymore and sold another 50+% today, so that now we are about 80% allocated to cash.  New contributions are still going into the market, but I want a lot of dry powder when the market realizes the full consequences of the pandemic.

The market behavior is completely irrational.  I don't care if the Fed is flooding the stagnating economy with cash.  The disease has been spreading even with the lockdowns and restrictions.  This re-opening is going to wake a lot of people up to the consequences of the disease as more people get infected and die.  Huge portions of the economy will not be the same for years - restaurants, travel, sports and entertainment, casinos - anything that requires a bunch of people to gather in one place.  The market was objectively overvalued before the coronavirus crash.  It's closer to fairly valued now if Covid-19 wasn't present.  With Covid-19 still spreading and the U.S. and global economic consequences not yet being felt, I'm convinced we're in a for very bumpy ride.  I just made a seven figure bet on this, so I hope I'm right...

Very interesting.  Have your thoughts changed in the last several weeks?  Or has your position stayed the same?

[Taran Wanderer]

My holdings are the same. I have to admit that I have doubts about what the market will do (people are irrational), but I continue to believe it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The case and death numbers will likely begin ticking up as we move from May into June, As it takes a couple of weeks for the disease to spread before we start seeing cases and numbers. Once it starts hitting closer to home, perhaps people will begin to understand how serious this is.

[JoJoP]

My holdings are the same. I have to admit that I have doubts about what the market will do (people are irrational), but I continue to believe it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The case and death numbers will likely begin ticking up as we move from May into June, As it takes a couple of weeks for the disease to spread before we start seeing cases and numbers. Once it starts hitting closer to home, perhaps people will begin to understand how serious this is.

These are my thoughts, also.  It just seems like the worst is yet to come.  I think it may be in the Fall, though, as the summer heat helps slow the spread regardless of behaviors.

[2sk22]

An interesting article in The New Yorker

Stocks don’t always rebound in a “V” shape. During the last lengthy bear market, which accompanied the Great Recession, stocks prices started falling in September, 2007, and didn’t bottom out until February, 2009, seventeen months later. During the Great Depression, in the nineteen-thirties, the bear market lasted even longer. It began with the Wall Street crash of October, 1929, and lasted until the middle of 1932; by then, the market was down about eighty per cent from its pre-crash peak. Stocks didn’t hit new highs until the nineteen-fifties.

[Exflyboy]

Hmm.. nice little pop today I might do some rebalancing.

I took about 5% of our portfolio and rolled from Bonds to stocks when we were about 30% down from memory.

I'm thinking of taking the same dollar value and rolling it to cash for some dry powder.

[Bateaux]

Hmm.. nice little pop today I might do some rebalancing.

I took about 5% of our portfolio and rolled from Bonds to stocks when we were about 30% down from memory.

I'm thinking of taking the same dollar value and rolling it to cash for some dry powder.

I'm just going to lengthen the future boat.

[LWYRUP]

An interesting article in The New Yorker

Stocks don’t always rebound in a “V” shape. During the last lengthy bear market, which accompanied the Great Recession, stocks prices started falling in September, 2007, and didn’t bottom out until February, 2009, seventeen months later. During the Great Depression, in the nineteen-thirties, the bear market lasted even longer. It began with the Wall Street crash of October, 1929, and lasted until the middle of 1932; by then, the market was down about eighty per cent from its pre-crash peak. Stocks didn’t hit new highs until the nineteen-fifties.

I wonder whether that next 1950s high in 1950 was adjusted for inflation.  If not, I wonder when the real inflation adjusted high was.

Probably can look that up but I'm wiped, maybe somebody knows offhand.

Consider as well impacts of dividends, taxes, frees. 

Any way you slice it, it certainly was a good long while before investors saw a real recovery.

[markbike528CBX]

An interesting article in The New Yorker

Stocks don’t always rebound in a “V” shape. During the last lengthy bear market, which accompanied the Great Recession, stocks prices started falling in September, 2007, and didn’t bottom out until February, 2009, seventeen months later. During the Great Depression, in the nineteen-thirties, the bear market lasted even longer. It began with the Wall Street crash of October, 1929, and lasted until the middle of 1932; by then, the market was down about eighty per cent from its pre-crash peak. Stocks didn’t hit new highs until the nineteen-fifties.

I wonder whether that next 1950s high in 1950 was adjusted for inflation.  If not, I wonder when the real inflation adjusted high was.

Probably can look that up but I'm wiped, maybe somebody knows offhand.

Consider as well impacts of dividends, taxes, frees. 

Any way you slice it, it certainly was a good long while before investors saw a real recovery.

If dividends (usually not considered in these arguments) is taken into account, I'll bet the investors made money before 1950.

During the 90 years between 1871 and 1960, the S&P 500 annual dividend yield never fell below 3%. In fact, annual dividends reached above 5% during 45 separate years over the period. "

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/071616/history-sp-500-dividend-yield.asp

[pecunia]

Hmm.. nice little pop today I might do some rebalancing.

I took about 5% of our portfolio and rolled from Bonds to stocks when we were about 30% down from memory.

I'm thinking of taking the same dollar value and rolling it to cash for some dry powder.

I'm just going to lengthen the future boat.

Boat - no Yacht.  You've got to get used to the right lingo.

In a year or two maybe you'll be telling us about the Great Barrier Reef and how you actually did fight off those Somali pirates.

[LWYRUP]

An interesting article in The New Yorker

Stocks don’t always rebound in a “V” shape. During the last lengthy bear market, which accompanied the Great Recession, stocks prices started falling in September, 2007, and didn’t bottom out until February, 2009, seventeen months later. During the Great Depression, in the nineteen-thirties, the bear market lasted even longer. It began with the Wall Street crash of October, 1929, and lasted until the middle of 1932; by then, the market was down about eighty per cent from its pre-crash peak. Stocks didn’t hit new highs until the nineteen-fifties.

I wonder whether that next 1950s high in 1950 was adjusted for inflation.  If not, I wonder when the real inflation adjusted high was.

Probably can look that up but I'm wiped, maybe somebody knows offhand.

Consider as well impacts of dividends, taxes, frees. 

Any way you slice it, it certainly was a good long while before investors saw a real recovery.

If dividends (usually not considered in these arguments) is taken into account, I'll bet the investors made money before 1950.

During the 90 years between 1871 and 1960, the S&P 500 annual dividend yield never fell below 3%. In fact, annual dividends reached above 5% during 45 separate years over the period. "

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/071616/history-sp-500-dividend-yield.asp

It would be great if when people did these types of studies they always stated the findings in terms of real returns, with dividends included. 

I suspect you are right that returns are nominal and exclude dividends, but I didn't realize the dividend effect would probably be stronger than the inflation effect.  Thanks for pointing that out. 

[Exflyboy]

The one article I read about the Great Depression said that if you took into account dividends and deflation (which was significant not surprisingly) then it was a 7 year event..

[Bateaux]

Hmm.. nice little pop today I might do some rebalancing.

I took about 5% of our portfolio and rolled from Bonds to stocks when we were about 30% down from memory.

I'm thinking of taking the same dollar value and rolling it to cash for some dry powder.

I'm just going to lengthen the future boat.

Boat - no Yacht.  You've got to get used to the right lingo.

In a year or two maybe you'll be telling us about the Great Barrier Reef and how you actually did fight off those Somali pirates.

I'm just trying to buy some stuff before we dilute the dollar to worthlessness.  But yes, it would be a yacht.  Those eat dollars even faster than boats.

[Exflyboy]

Hmm.. nice little pop today I might do some rebalancing.

I took about 5% of our portfolio and rolled from Bonds to stocks when we were about 30% down from memory.

I'm thinking of taking the same dollar value and rolling it to cash for some dry powder.

I'm just going to lengthen the future boat.

Boat - no Yacht.  You've got to get used to the right lingo.

In a year or two maybe you'll be telling us about the Great Barrier Reef and how you actually did fight off those Somali pirates.

I'm just trying to buy some stuff before we dilute the dollar to worthlessness.  But yes, it would be a yacht.  Those eat dollars even faster than boats.

Aviation is similar.. In fact its easy to make a small fortune in aviation... You just start with a large fortune!

[LightTripper]

Interesting article saying exactly that (plus the Dow Jones is crazy, as we all knew but it's easy to forget, particularly for those of us outside the US).

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html

[Exflyboy]

Interesting article saying exactly that (plus the Dow Jones is crazy, as we all knew but it's easy to forget, particularly for those of us outside the US).

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/26/your-money/stocks-and-bonds/26stra.html

Yup, so 4.5 years from the 1932 low to recovery.. add the three years from 29 to 32 and that gives 7.5 years.

My Wife incidently is now on line booking a ticket from Portland, Oregon to Denver for... 20 bucks round trip! Now thats deflation..:)

[Bateaux]

We're looking at an awesome 13 day cruise from New York to many nice Carribean ports.  It ends in New Orleans.   So really convient for us.  Direct flight from New Orleans, we can have family drop us off at airport.  Norwegian Breakaway is the ship.  Sail out of New York November 9th and ends in New Orleans on November 23rd.  We can get a nice balcony room with drink and dinner package for about $3500.  Toss in flight and transfer less than $4000.  Great value for all the ports we'll be seeing.   What y'all think?   Will it be safe?   Money is refundable up until 48 hours and only a small deposit is required for which we have an existing credit.  I'm about ready to book this because the good rooms are filling up.  Ending in New Orleans makes it super easy for us.

[Taran Wanderer]

???

Are you prepared for the cruise to turn into a multi-week odyssey where you never leave the ship in those ports and get stuck on the ship when you get home to New Orleans?  Yikes, I wouldn’t go anywhere near a cruise ship right now.

[SwordGuy]

We're looking at an awesome 13 day cruise from New York to many nice Carribean ports.  It ends in New Orleans.   So really convient for us.  Direct flight from New Orleans, we can have family drop us off at airport.  Norwegian Breakaway is the ship.  Sail out of New York November 9th and ends in New Orleans on November 23rd.  We can get a nice balcony room with drink and dinner package for about $3500.  Toss in flight and transfer less than $4000.  Great value for all the ports we'll be seeing.   What y'all think?   Will it be safe?   Money is refundable up until 48 hours and only a small deposit is required for which we have an existing credit.  I'm about ready to book this because the good rooms are filling up.  Ending in New Orleans makes it super easy for us.

JFC!!!

Note the dateline for this article is 2 days ago:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242565281.html


Seriously, if you go, make sure you have your and your spouse's will and powers of attorney up to date, an a competent, willing executor lined up.

[Bateaux]

???

Are you prepared for the cruise to turn into a multi-week odyssey where you never leave the ship in those ports and get stuck on the ship when you get home to New Orleans?  Yikes, I wouldn’t go anywhere near a cruise ship right now.

I'm definitely getting a balcony.  I'll probably bring a few hundred pounds of Mardi Gras beads to throw to the crowds along the way!

I'm asking the hive mind here.  I'm mean, I can for freaking free get the opinions of millionaires!  Mr. Money Mustache Tom Sawyered the shit outta this.

[Exflyboy]

NFW would I go anywhere near a cruise ship without a viable vaccine. note you only need one asymptomatic patient (who won't show symptoms for 14 days) to take out the entire ship!

Have a good time (in your cabin)...:)

On a more positive note.. Jim Cramer today said there will NOT be a depression in the US. Yay, we're saved!

[deborah]

We’ve just had someone test positive for covid19 who must have had it for 2 months already!

[Dicey]

I'm asking the hive mind here.  mean, I can for freaking free get the opinions of millionaires!  Mr. Money Mustache Tom Sawyered the shit outta this.

OMG, that is so true! LMAO!

Bateaux, I'm another voice in the chorus. Still too many variables.

[Car Jack]

If I wanted to visit Caribbean islands, I'd get on a plane and fly to that island.  That's what I've always done.  Why come into the port, get on some rip off excursion, drive to some overly touristy point on an island, maybe get lunch and come back to the ship when spending a week on the island, you get an actual flavor of the island, see stuff that cruisers will never see (if you visited Aruba, did you get a Balashi Beer tour?  Trip out to Palo Marga dragstrip?  Climb the stairs to the top of Hooiberg (haystack mountain)?  I doubt it.  You'd likely get shuttled to Baby Beach and maybe back for shopping in Orangestad before getting on the kettle of bacteria to go back out to sea.

Can you tell I'm not a cruise fan?

[pecunia]

It may at least behoove you to simply contact the cruise line and ask them what actions they are taking to ensure that folks do not get sick.  It may also make sense to ask them what special requirements may be made of yourselves.  Get the facts before making the decision.

[Bateaux]

If I wanted to visit Caribbean islands, I'd get on a plane and fly to that island.  That's what I've always done.  Why come into the port, get on some rip off excursion, drive to some overly touristy point on an island, maybe get lunch and come back to the ship when spending a week on the island, you get an actual flavor of the island, see stuff that cruisers will never see (if you visited Aruba, did you get a Balashi Beer tour?  Trip out to Palo Marga dragstrip?  Climb the stairs to the top of Hooiberg (haystack mountain)?  I doubt it.  You'd likely get shuttled to Baby Beach and maybe back for shopping in Orangestad before getting on the kettle of bacteria to go back out to sea.

Can you tell I'm not a cruise fan?

That is exactly the way my wife likes it!  Get the dime tour for about 5 or 6 hours and back to the boat.  I kinda like it myself, even though I hope to own a vessel some day and visit them all much more slowly.  We both love the mega ships and would probably go even if they didn't let you leave the immediate touristy section at port.

[Bateaux]

It may at least behoove you to simply contact the cruise line and ask them what actions they are taking to ensure that folks do not get sick.  It may also make sense to ask them what special requirements may be made of yourselves.  Get the facts before making the decision.

Not much they can do. 

[wannabe-stache]

Bateaux wrote

The escalator always goes up in time.  If you never get off you'll go higher, you just have to hang on through a few rough dips.  Survival of those dips is key.   Yesterday I dipped $5,000 turns out.  That's a total emergency fund for some who actually feel comfortable.  It's an annual salary in some countries.  It's a blip for us.  Not even a memory the next day.

I'm on the verge of selling everything in stock today.

I am confused.  you posted both of these statements on the same day, 4/29/2020.  what did you do and how do you feel today?

[wannabe-stache]

I'm down $500,000 and still enjoying being done with my high stress corporate job.   There are so many levers that can be pulled for income and for expenses.

my portfolio is up $200K+ since the top in February but a) I received a large bonus from my high stress corporate job and b) rebalanced heavily into equities, even some individual stocks. They've done quite well and i should probably sell.  anything over 100% is just greedy.

[Bateaux]

Bateaux wrote

The escalator always goes up in time.  If you never get off you'll go higher, you just have to hang on through a few rough dips.  Survival of those dips is key.   Yesterday I dipped $5,000 turns out.  That's a total emergency fund for some who actually feel comfortable.  It's an annual salary in some countries.  It's a blip for us.  Not even a memory the next day.

I'm on the verge of selling everything in stock today.

I am confused.  you posted both of these statements on the same day, 4/29/2020.  what did you do and how do you feel today?

A lesson I've learned, don't fight the Fed.  The Fed promises to bring it's balance sheet to 10 trillion, just stay in the indexes and momentum stocks.  Where would I run to anyway?  I already have over a million in cash and bonds.  If interest rates go up like they should when you print trillions, bonds lose value.  If interest rates stay low, they pay out less than inflation.  No rules apply anymore.  In times past when you acquired over 2 million dollars or its current relative value, you'd won the game.  Bonds paid out 6 or 7 percent.  When I started working at my company, they didn't have a 401K.  They had a guaranteed 8 percent minimum savings GIC account. Could you imagine 8 percent guaranteed return?  They also had a great pension, 1.6 times years of service.  Divide that by 100 and multiply by the average of your last 5 years of service.  So say 30 years of service.  30×1.6=48 ,48÷100=0.48 , 0.48 × $100,000=$48,000 per year.  For me at this moment would be around 50K a year starting August 2020.  Unfortunately, that pension began to run out of funds in 2012.  Now I do have over 400K in the cash balance remnant of that luscious golden parachute taken by many in 2012.  So yeah, it gets emotional when things you thought guaranteed get washed away.  So based on what I was told to plan for, my 401K account value x 8 percent guaranteed is a little over 100k a year in interest.   With my pension, of 50k would be 150k per year starting this August.   That's with no savings outside my company plans.  How did it all shake out?  Currently the 401K is 1.23 million.  The cash balance pension is 405K.  That's 1.635 million right now in company plans  and available to me this August.  There are those savvy enough to eek that 150K I'd expected from that value.  But with lots of risk vs risk free.  I have other accounts and my wife does as well, all inclusive it's a little over 2.3 million.  Not bad right?  The accumulation was easy, persistence pays.  But, how do you convert that to a paycheck in this enviroment?  That was a long and poorly written answer to your question.  Even worse, it wasn't an answer.

[SwordGuy]

@Bateaux , take enough cruises over the next 3 months and I bet you'll bury your concerns over longevity risk to your stash...

[Bateaux]

@Bateaux , take enough cruises over the next 3 months and I bet you'll bury your concerns over longevity risk to your stash...

Y'all love me dammit!  I try and keep this place live.  You gotta have a crazy Cajun to keep it fresh.

I'm about ready to book that dang cruise.  Don't worry, I'll tell Y'all all about it.

[pecunia]

@Bateaux , take enough cruises over the next 3 months and I bet you'll bury your concerns over longevity risk to your stash...

Y'all love me dammit!  I try and keep this place live.  You gotta have a crazy Cajun to keep it fresh.

I'm about ready to book that dang cruise.  Don't worry, I'll tell Y'all all about it.

"Laissez les bons temps rouler"

[Bateaux]

@Bateaux , take enough cruises over the next 3 months and I bet you'll bury your concerns over longevity risk to your stash...

Y'all love me dammit!  I try and keep this place live.  You gotta have a crazy Cajun to keep it fresh.

I'm about ready to book that dang cruise.  Don't worry, I'll tell Y'all all about it.

"Laissez les bons temps rouler"

Dat's what I'm talking about chéri

[Buffaloski Boris]

Bateaux wrote

The escalator always goes up in time.  If you never get off you'll go higher, you just have to hang on through a few rough dips.  Survival of those dips is key.   Yesterday I dipped $5,000 turns out.  That's a total emergency fund for some who actually feel comfortable.  It's an annual salary in some countries.  It's a blip for us.  Not even a memory the next day.

I'm on the verge of selling everything in stock today.

I am confused.  you posted both of these statements on the same day, 4/29/2020.  what did you do and how do you feel today?

A lesson I've learned, don't fight the Fed.  The Fed promises to bring it's balance sheet to 10 trillion, just stay in the indexes and momentum stocks.  Where would I run to anyway?  I already have over a million in cash and bonds.  If interest rates go up like they should when you print trillions, bonds lose value.  If interest rates stay low, they pay out less than inflation.  No rules apply anymore.  In times past when you acquired over 2 million dollars or its current relative value, you'd won the game.  Bonds paid out 6 or 7 percent.  When I started working at my company, they didn't have a 401K.  They had a guaranteed 8 percent minimum savings GIC account. Could you imagine 8 percent guaranteed return?  They also had a great pension, 1.6 times years of service.  Divide that by 100 and multiply by the average of your last 5 years of service.  So say 30 years of service.  30×1.6=48 ,48÷100=0.48 , 0.48 × $100,000=$48,000 per year.  For me at this moment would be around 50K a year starting August 2020.  Unfortunately, that pension began to run out of funds in 2012.  Now I do have over 400K in the cash balance remnant of that luscious golden parachute taken by many in 2012.  So yeah, it gets emotional when things you thought guaranteed get washed away.  So based on what I was told to plan for, my 401K account value x 8 percent guaranteed is a little over 100k a year in interest.   With my pension, of 50k would be 150k per year starting this August.   That's with no savings outside my company plans.  How did it all shake out?  Currently the 401K is 1.23 million.  The cash balance pension is 405K.  That's 1.635 million right now in company plans  and available to me this August.  There are those savvy enough to eek that 150K I'd expected from that value.  But with lots of risk vs risk free.  I have other accounts and my wife does as well, all inclusive it's a little over 2.3 million.  Not bad right?  The accumulation was easy, persistence pays.  But, how do you convert that to a paycheck in this enviroment?  That was a long and poorly written answer to your question.  Even worse, it wasn't an answer.

So what you’re saying then is that we should try to figure out what our net worth actually is? Whoa. What a buzzkill.

[Bateaux]

Bateaux wrote

The escalator always goes up in time.  If you never get off you'll go higher, you just have to hang on through a few rough dips.  Survival of those dips is key.   Yesterday I dipped $5,000 turns out.  That's a total emergency fund for some who actually feel comfortable.  It's an annual salary in some countries.  It's a blip for us.  Not even a memory the next day.

I'm on the verge of selling everything in stock today.

I am confused.  you posted both of these statements on the same day, 4/29/2020.  what did you do and how do you feel today?

A lesson I've learned, don't fight the Fed.  The Fed promises to bring it's balance sheet to 10 trillion, just stay in the indexes and momentum stocks.  Where would I run to anyway?  I already have over a million in cash and bonds.  If interest rates go up like they should when you print trillions, bonds lose value.  If interest rates stay low, they pay out less than inflation.  No rules apply anymore.  In times past when you acquired over 2 million dollars or its current relative value, you'd won the game.  Bonds paid out 6 or 7 percent.  When I started working at my company, they didn't have a 401K.  They had a guaranteed 8 percent minimum savings GIC account. Could you imagine 8 percent guaranteed return?  They also had a great pension, 1.6 times years of service.  Divide that by 100 and multiply by the average of your last 5 years of service.  So say 30 years of service.  30×1.6=48 ,48÷100=0.48 , 0.48 × $100,000=$48,000 per year.  For me at this moment would be around 50K a year starting August 2020.  Unfortunately, that pension began to run out of funds in 2012.  Now I do have over 400K in the cash balance remnant of that luscious golden parachute taken by many in 2012.  So yeah, it gets emotional when things you thought guaranteed get washed away.  So based on what I was told to plan for, my 401K account value x 8 percent guaranteed is a little over 100k a year in interest.   With my pension, of 50k would be 150k per year starting this August.   That's with no savings outside my company plans.  How did it all shake out?  Currently the 401K is 1.23 million.  The cash balance pension is 405K.  That's 1.635 million right now in company plans  and available to me this August.  There are those savvy enough to eek that 150K I'd expected from that value.  But with lots of risk vs risk free.  I have other accounts and my wife does as well, all inclusive it's a little over 2.3 million.  Not bad right?  The accumulation was easy, persistence pays.  But, how do you convert that to a paycheck in this enviroment?  That was a long and poorly written answer to your question.  Even worse, it wasn't an answer.

So what you’re saying then is that we should try to figure out what our net worth actually is? Whoa. What a buzzkill.

Yeah.  I know it sucks.  I'm ready to GTFO and I'm scared shitless of this market condition.  I'm booking a dang cruise.   That either proves I'm not a candy ass or just a fool.  These people are way smarter than this dumb Cajun.   I'm just along for the ride and trying to tease them into posting some smart stuff I can follow.

[Buffaloski Boris]

Yeah.  I know it sucks.  I'm ready to GTFO and I'm scared shitless of this market condition.  I'm booking a dang cruise.   That either proves I'm not a candy ass or just a fool.  These people are way smarter than this dumb Cajun.   I'm just along for the ride and trying to tease them into posting some smart stuff I can follow.

OK. So let me get this right. You’re sitting on a $2.3 mil stash in southern Louisiana? That’s like being a deca millionaire anyplace else in the country. And you’re scared of the market? Lord have mercy. So let’s say the market crashes and burns. You’ll only be able to buy half your parish instead of 2/3 of it!

I’ll tell you, the only things that seems to help me when the market is being bat___ crazy is cash and diversification. And VTSAX doesn’t scratch the itch.

Dumb Cajun? Hah. Dumb like a fox.

[Bateaux]

We're looking at an awesome 13 day cruise from New York to many nice Carribean ports.  It ends in New Orleans.   So really convient for us.  Direct flight from New Orleans, we can have family drop us off at airport.  Norwegian Breakaway is the ship.  Sail out of New York November 9th and ends in New Orleans on November 23rd.  We can get a nice balcony room with drink and dinner package for about $3500.  Toss in flight and transfer less than $4000.  Great value for all the ports we'll be seeing.   What y'all think?   Will it be safe?   Money is refundable up until 48 hours and only a small deposit is required for which we have an existing credit.  I'm about ready to book this because the good rooms are filling up.  Ending in New Orleans makes it super easy for us.

JFC!!!

Note the dateline for this article is 2 days ago:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242565281.html


Seriously, if you go, make sure you have your and your spouse's will and powers of attorney up to date, an a competent, willing executor lined up.

Great thing about Louisiana is Napoleonic Law.  Yep we still have laws on the books from the French.  I can write my will on a cocktail napkin without a lawyer or notary and it's legal.

[desk_jockey]

Hah. Dumb like a fox.

I think that might be the wrong animal, when it comes to describing Cajuns.

I’ll tell you, the only things that seems to help me when the market is being bat___ crazy is cash and diversification. And VTSAX doesn’t scratch the itch.

I just flat out don’t understand the market.  Seems that people expect the government to bail-out everyone before any situation gets to bad.  It certainly appears to be happening.  That may keep markets too expensive for a while.  I guess that will work for a time… until it doesn’t.  And then there will be hell to pay.

[pecunia]

- SNIP -

I just flat out don’t understand the market.  Seems that people expect the government to bail-out everyone before any situation gets to bad.  It certainly appears to be happening.  That may keep markets too expensive for a while.  I guess that will work for a time… until it doesn’t.  And then there will be hell to pay.

Will there be hell to pay?  Haven't we already had a big "correction?"

So - Government sends people money for a bit.  What do they do with it?  Mostly spend it.  This keeps the demand for goods and services up and keeps the stock prices up.  Mostly win - win for a little while.  (Trickle Up Economics)

After the little bit, no more government money.  Virus fear dies down.  People go back to work.  They make money.  Mostly spend it.  This maintains the demand for goods and services. This keeps stock prices up as the companies have real value.  Mostly win-win for longer time until business cycle dumps on people again.

Stock prices may stay down for a bit, but maybe it's better if their price is based on real value rather than speculation.

[desk_jockey]

- SNIP -

I just flat out don’t understand the market.  Seems that people expect the government to bail-out everyone before any situation gets to bad.  It certainly appears to be happening.  That may keep markets too expensive for a while.  I guess that will work for a time… until it doesn’t.  And then there will be hell to pay.

Will there be hell to pay?  Haven't we already had a big "correction?"

So - Government sends people money for a bit.  What do they do with it?  Mostly spend it.  This keeps the demand for goods and services up and keeps the stock prices up.  Mostly win - win for a little while.  (Trickle Up Economics)

After the little bit, no more government money.  Virus fear dies down.  People go back to work.  They make money.  Mostly spend it.  This maintains the demand for goods and services. This keeps stock prices up as the companies have real value.  Mostly win-win for longer time until business cycle dumps on people again.

Stock prices may stay down for a bit, but maybe it's better if their price is based on real value rather than speculation.

The comment was not about the government sending people money.  The stimulus checks and far more importantly the extra money for unemployment are needed. But these are a very small fraction of the recent government stimulus. 

My comment was directed at the great part of the stimulus that went to propping-up companies. Again. This time we were exceptionally quick to give money into companies.   It might be worth noting that Buffett and Munger aren’t buying, presumably because they can’t find deals of value.   In previous financial crises corporations have come to them hat-in-hand (e.g. GE in 2008).  This time around there seems to be less need of that, as the government stepped in before market forces were in full effect.

Have we had a big correction?   A blip correction is more like it.   Down 10% two months after an all-time peak is hardly a big correction.

At this point, I’m speculating out loud as to whether we’re seeing a fundamental change in the playing field.   Has the market or the coverage of it become so important that the federal elected officials feel they can’t let wide-spread bad things happen?   Will they now rush in with lower interest rates and massive corporate economic assistance every time there is a problem?  Are they worried that a small drop in stock prices might mean they won’t get reelected? 

I’m wondering if we are in a cycle in which there is limited downside risk because the government is standing by to print money to solve any corporate market problem.  That will work for a while. 10 years, 15 years, or 40 years…  If this is what is happening, eventually we will reach a point where the same solution won’t be able to fix the next economic problem.  At that time there will be hell to pay.

That said, I'll stand by my previous comment:  I just flat out don’t understand [this] market.

[pecunia]

- SNIP -

The comment was not about the government sending people money.  The stimulus checks and far more importantly the extra money for unemployment are needed. But these are a very small fraction of the recent government stimulus. 

My comment was directed at the great part of the stimulus that went to propping-up companies. Again. This time we were exceptionally quick to give money into companies.   It might be worth noting that Buffett and Munger aren’t buying, presumably because they can’t find deals of value.   In previous financial crises corporations have come to them hat-in-hand (e.g. GE in 2008).  This time around there seems to be less need of that, as the government stepped in before market forces were in full effect.

Oh heck, that's even more basic.

"Ya dance with the one that brung ya."

It's a very commonly known fact that it costs a bit of money to get into the Washington thing.  Who pays that money?  It comes from different places.  A chunk of it is paid by American enterprise, businesses.  American businesses don't just throw money away.  They have really smart people who know all about investing money.  (Just like you guys.)  When they invest that money, they expect a return.

When businesses hire a young person out of college, they have an investment in that person.  They are grooming that person to be successful in their organization.  They recognize people that can become one of their own.

When businesses contribute to an aspiring politician, they have an investment in that person.  Their lobbyists help that person to successfully represent them.  They help elect one of their own.

So,......the good news for all these businesses is that sometimes a small investment really pays off.  As you noted, the stock prices stayed up.

[Bateaux]

- SNIP -

I just flat out don’t understand the market.  Seems that people expect the government to bail-out everyone before any situation gets to bad.  It certainly appears to be happening.  That may keep markets too expensive for a while.  I guess that will work for a time… until it doesn’t.  And then there will be hell to pay.

Will there be hell to pay?  Haven't we already had a big "correction?"

So - Government sends people money for a bit.  What do they do with it?  Mostly spend it.  This keeps the demand for goods and services up and keeps the stock prices up.  Mostly win - win for a little while.  (Trickle Up Economics)

After the little bit, no more government money.  Virus fear dies down.  People go back to work.  They make money.  Mostly spend it.  This maintains the demand for goods and services. This keeps stock prices up as the companies have real value.  Mostly win-win for longer time until business cycle dumps on people again.

Stock prices may stay down for a bit, but maybe it's better if their price is based on real value rather than speculation.

The comment was not about the government sending people money.  The stimulus checks and far more importantly the extra money for unemployment are needed. But these are a very small fraction of the recent government stimulus. 

My comment was directed at the great part of the stimulus that went to propping-up companies. Again. This time we were exceptionally quick to give money into companies.   It might be worth noting that Buffett and Munger aren’t buying, presumably because they can’t find deals of value.   In previous financial crises corporations have come to them hat-in-hand (e.g. GE in 2008).  This time around there seems to be less need of that, as the government stepped in before market forces were in full effect.

Have we had a big correction?   A blip correction is more like it.   Down 10% two months after an all-time peak is hardly a big correction.

At this point, I’m speculating out loud as to whether we’re seeing a fundamental change in the playing field.   Has the market or the coverage of it become so important that the federal elected officials feel they can’t let wide-spread bad things happen?   Will they now rush in with lower interest rates and massive corporate economic assistance every time there is a problem?  Are they worried that a small drop in stock prices might mean they won’t get reelected? 

I’m wondering if we are in a cycle in which there is limited downside risk because the government is standing by to print money to solve any corporate market problem.  That will work for a while. 10 years, 15 years, or 40 years…  If this is what is happening, eventually we will reach a point where the same solution won’t be able to fix the next economic problem.  At that time there will be hell to pay.

That said, I'll stand by my previous comment:  I just flat out don’t understand [this] market.

I share your frustration.   Eventually companies have to make real money for stock values to hold up.  There will be a huge number of small business failures within the next year.  They live paycheck to paycheck like a lot of American workers.   Loans and grants can only bridge the gap so long.  New businesses will see opportunity in that void however so it's not all gloom and doom.  The stock market also runs on future expectations.  But in that future you have to let the deadwood fall.  A rotting limb only adds stress to the tree, it would rather grow a new healthy limb from a fresh bud.