Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 536437 times)

Car Jack

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2950 on: May 01, 2020, 01:30:29 PM »
A million in cash?.. I'm wondering how think my wallet would be with all that..:)

Not much different from when it was lower - we just can't think of ways to spend the money :-)

We barely travel, my happiness comes from playing with my model trains. The main planned expenses
we have planned are some home renovation and
college for the younger kid.

Now I get it.

My oldest has one more class next Thursday (online) and graduates.  Starts his job about a week later.  I calculate college costs in cars.  He's a mid level Lamborghini Huracan.  No....really.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2951 on: May 01, 2020, 01:53:42 PM »
A million in cash?.. I'm wondering how think my wallet would be with all that..:)

Not much different from when it was lower - we just can't think of ways to spend the money :-)

We barely travel, my happiness comes from playing with my model trains. The main planned expenses
we have planned are some home renovation and
college for the younger kid.

Now I get it.

My oldest has one more class next Thursday (online) and graduates.  Starts his job about a week later.  I calculate college costs in cars.  He's a mid level Lamborghini Huracan.  No....really.

Heh, I thought $1M was ridiculous, but when you include the 529s for my 3 kids on top of my portfolio cash I guess not really...

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2952 on: May 01, 2020, 02:18:46 PM »
Now I get it.

My oldest has one more class next Thursday (online) and graduates.  Starts his job about a week later.  I calculate college costs in cars.  He's a mid level Lamborghini Huracan.  No....really.

Heh - that's right on the mark! Depending on which school she decides to go to, it could be anywhere between a Mercedes S class and a Rolls Royce Ghost :-)

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2953 on: May 02, 2020, 03:41:34 PM »
Listening to Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting 2020.

I'm very encouraged at what he says.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/berkshire-hathaway-annual-shareholders-meeting-154143373.html

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2954 on: May 02, 2020, 07:06:10 PM »
A million in cash?.. I'm wondering how think my wallet would be with all that..:)

You'd have to be sure to have two wallets, one for each cheek, or you'd hurt your back...

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2955 on: May 02, 2020, 07:23:51 PM »
It really is a crazy situation to be in, one where an investor can't win.  If you want to get out, then you're missing out on what the Fed promises to be a free-for all buffet lunch for the market.  The Fed clearly said today that economic activity is too low, businesses need to be kept alive, and Congress has to get more money out to consumers. 

But if you stay invested, you know you are holding assets that are being propped up by issuing debt.  The government may be able to issue a lot of debt for a long time, but what if they can't?  It is common sense that EPS expansion can't go on forever - investors ultimately want to own companies that increase earnings over time.  In the US, the earnings come from consumers (or exports) and that's all gone in an unprecedented way.  No one has any idea what earnings will be or how long it will take for things to return to 'normal'.  In the meantime, many businesses will simply be unable to make money, but still have to service debt, pay rents, pay employees...

So, do you hold your bets for a few more days/weeks/months, thinking there's probably another few trillion coming from the Fed and Congress or do you rationalize that you're already pretty lucky to be able to sell stuff at inflated prices and sit out the roller coaster ride?

If only bonds or real estate offered a viable alternative!  I'm sure there will be lots of great opportunities to buy stuff at reasonable prices at some point, I just hope I'm patient enough not to blow myself up in the meantime.  I really have no idea what a reasonable S&P500 level is until we get some idea of earnings, so if it falls, how do you know when it has hit the floor?

Exactly what I'm feeling.  All common sense is gone.

I cashed out about 25% of our total market holdings before the market dropped.  The writing on the wall was just way too clear about where the market was heading.  Then I watched the market tumble down and wished I had sold it all.  I've watched this insanely optimistic surge as prices rebound.  I couldn't stand it anymore and sold another 50+% today, so that now we are about 80% allocated to cash.  New contributions are still going into the market, but I want a lot of dry powder when the market realizes the full consequences of the pandemic.

The market behavior is completely irrational.  I don't care if the Fed is flooding the stagnating economy with cash.  The disease has been spreading even with the lockdowns and restrictions.  This re-opening is going to wake a lot of people up to the consequences of the disease as more people get infected and die.  Huge portions of the economy will not be the same for years - restaurants, travel, sports and entertainment, casinos - anything that requires a bunch of people to gather in one place.  The market was objectively overvalued before the coronavirus crash.  It's closer to fairly valued now if Covid-19 wasn't present.  With Covid-19 still spreading and the U.S. and global economic consequences not yet being felt, I'm convinced we're in a for very bumpy ride.  I just made a seven figure bet on this, so I hope I'm right...

This bouncing of the market on what could hardly be called good news for the economy is driving me nuts.  The whole world is shut down to some degree or other.  Ok, New Zealand might reopen soon.  That won't exactly kick start the world economy.   It just feels like my money is in the hands of crazy people.  Why would the market go down, then up, up, and up some more? Up?  Really?  Why?  The world economy is in the toilet, we just added a huge amount of national debt,  and it's likely to get worse before it gets better.  I'm completely baffled.   It makes no sense to me.   

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2956 on: May 02, 2020, 08:29:52 PM »
A million in cash?.. I'm wondering how think my wallet would be with all that..:)

You'd have to be sure to have two wallets, one for each cheek, or you'd hurt your back...


Everybody knows that you're supposed to carry it in a briefcase that's handcuffed to your wrist, so the bad guy will have to cut your wrist off to get your money.  ;)




pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2957 on: May 03, 2020, 11:45:10 AM »

- SNIP -

This bouncing of the market on what could hardly be called good news for the economy is driving me nuts.  The whole world is shut down to some degree or other.  Ok, New Zealand might reopen soon.  That won't exactly kick start the world economy.   It just feels like my money is in the hands of crazy people.  Why would the market go down, then up, up, and up some more? Up?  Really?  Why?  The world economy is in the toilet, we just added a huge amount of national debt,  and it's likely to get worse before it gets better.  I'm completely baffled.   It makes no sense to me.

I'm jealous of you.  I don't understand why the market does what it does in "normal" times. 

This virus situation has been compared to a war situation.  All the spending done for wars have sometimes been an economic boost in the past.  Is it possible that the fear uncertainty and doubt this thing has brought about will cause some sort of mass spending like a "real" war situation?  I wonder if there will be some sort of new physical infrastructure changes to preclude this situation for future pandemics.  I am not sure what they would be.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2958 on: May 03, 2020, 12:23:06 PM »
A million in cash?.. I'm wondering how think my wallet would be with all that..:)

You'd have to be sure to have two wallets, one for each cheek, or you'd hurt your back...


Everybody knows that you're supposed to carry it in a briefcase that's handcuffed to your wrist, so the bad guy will have to cut your wrist off to get your money.  ;)

Reminds of a scene from my all time fav movie called "Snatch". Absolutely brilliant!.. Gruesome but brilliant..:)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snatch_(film)

I never realised just how great of an actor Brad Pitt is until I saw this!

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2959 on: May 03, 2020, 05:44:20 PM »
I read this sad story about the journalist Ray Suarez who writes a personal article about how in his early 60's, he found he's not doing so well financially, despite a decades long prominent career.

One thing that struck me in the article was how Suarez says he's facing $2,800 health insurance bills which he's not sure he can afford to pay.
I know that the ACA allows you to change the amount you have to pay if you report a change in income that is lower.

"I clung to the middle class as I aged. The pandemic pulled me under."
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/30/i-clung-middle-class-i-aged-pandemic-pulled-me-under/

[MOD EDIT: Copy/paste of article removed. Click link above. Cheers!]
« Last Edit: May 04, 2020, 06:45:45 PM by arebelspy »

deborah

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2960 on: May 03, 2020, 05:50:33 PM »
What a misogynist! Poor old men! What about the many more poorer old women?

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2961 on: May 03, 2020, 09:20:11 PM »
Apart from misogyny, it seems Mr Suarez has done what most other Americans do.. But yet expected a different result?

In other words he's spent everything (or saved very little) and expected to work till 65.

Once again another sorry statistic that demonstrates the need to save a lot more than you think you'll need and save it sooner rather than later.

sad..

AdrianC

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2962 on: May 04, 2020, 06:56:24 AM »
Listening to Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting 2020.

I'm very encouraged at what he says.
What did you find encouraging?

Warren is still going strong. Went on for about 4 hours. But...heís conserving cash. A net seller in April. Sold all the airline stocks at a loss.
Heís his usual long-term optimistic self, but seemed very pessimistic for the short-term. ďNever bet AGAINST AmericaĒ, but has 35% of market cap in cash...

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2963 on: May 04, 2020, 08:47:36 AM »
Listening to Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting 2020.

I'm very encouraged at what he says.
What did you find encouraging?

Warren is still going strong. Went on for about 4 hours. But...heís conserving cash. A net seller in April. Sold all the airline stocks at a loss.
Heís his usual long-term optimistic self, but seemed very pessimistic for the short-term. ďNever bet AGAINST AmericaĒ, but has 35% of market cap in cash...

That's how I heard it.   When you are comparing current environment to the civil war or could be worse than great depression, doesn't sound optimistic to me.    Sure America will probably be strong over the long term, but sometimes short term matters.  The doctors at the hospital will surely be able to treat you for your life ending injuries...Öjust one problem, the hospital is 30 minutes away and you only have 10 minutes left :(

Aside from that, actions speak loudly - selling and not buying as the market crashed definitely seems atypical for him.

desk_jockey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2964 on: May 04, 2020, 10:17:39 PM »
Aside from that, actions speak loudly - selling and not buying as the market crashed definitely seems atypical for him.

Has BH sold substantially except for the airline stocks?   Buffet is buy and hold, but has often exited individual stocks when there were major changes to their situations.  Iím not concerned with him selling all his airline holdings as he has said he has no way of measuring their value in this new environment (I agree profusely).  If he is exiting stocks in a lot of different industries then I would be more worried.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2965 on: May 05, 2020, 03:08:56 AM »

Has BH sold substantially except for the airline stocks?   Buffet is buy and hold, but has often exited individual stocks when there were major changes to their situations.  Iím not concerned with him selling all his airline holdings as he has said he has no way of measuring their value in this new environment (I agree profusely).  If he is exiting stocks in a lot of different industries then I would be more worried.

Then again, he is 89 year old and that may also play a role in his current investment strategy.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2966 on: May 05, 2020, 09:29:14 AM »
Aside from that, actions speak loudly - selling and not buying as the market crashed definitely seems atypical for him.

Has BH sold substantially except for the airline stocks?   Buffet is buy and hold, but has often exited individual stocks when there were major changes to their situations.  Iím not concerned with him selling all his airline holdings as he has said he has no way of measuring their value in this new environment (I agree profusely).  If he is exiting stocks in a lot of different industries then I would be more worried.

That's a fair point, I don't think Berkshire was mass selling out of equities but not buying either.  Still as previous poster said Berkshire has higher cash levels than typical.   Regardless, his verbal comments very much said uncertainty and risk currently is not good, but 50 years from now it will be fine so don't bet against America.   

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2967 on: May 05, 2020, 09:36:38 AM »
I read this sad story about the journalist Ray Suarez who writes a personal article about how in his early 60's, he found he's not doing so well financially, despite a decades long prominent career.

One thing that struck me in the article was how Suarez says he's facing $2,800 health insurance bills which he's not sure he can afford to pay.
I know that the ACA allows you to change the amount you have to pay if you report a change in income that is lower.

"I clung to the middle class as I aged. The pandemic pulled me under."
 https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/30/i-clung-middle-class-i-aged-pandemic-pulled-me-under/

[MOD EDIT: Copy/paste of article removed. Click link above. Cheers!]

One of the replies to his article sums it up for me.  I'll paraphrase so the mods don't have to edit too long of a quote:  "You've paid off a 700ishK house, have a 401K and can take Social Security early.  Move to some where less expensive and live frugally.  You're better off than most..."

He has choices, he just doesn't like them.   

I just had my umpteenth conversation with a friend in a similar boat... they run an Airbnb (now empty instead of at peak occupancy) and have mismanaged their money for decades.   They're supporting 2 kids in college, drive fancy cars, have a vacation house, live in a resort area,  and borrow to fund their lifestyle.  They currently owe 80K+ in credit card bills (0 percent balance transfers about to come due), and have a huge, completely tapped out equity line.  Any suggestions to cut back are always met with "oh no, I can't do that...."  They have a NW of about 1M in RE, and view that as living money just waiting to be tapped into somehow.  They've been living like this for decades, refinancing and borrowing over and over again.    The only thing I wonder is if they can borrow and borrow some more until they die, or will this whole thing come crashing down?   I see it as a race to the finish. 

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2968 on: May 05, 2020, 09:51:28 AM »
One of the replies to his article sums it up for me.  I'll paraphrase so the mods don't have to edit too long of a quote:  "You've paid off a 700ishK house, have a 401K and can take Social Security early.  Move to some where less expensive and live frugally.  You're better off than most..."

He has choices, he just doesn't like them.   

I just had my umpteenth conversation with a friend in a similar boat... they run an Airbnb (now empty instead of at peak occupancy) and have mismanaged their money for decades.   They're supporting 2 kids in college, drive fancy cars, have a vacation house, live in a resort area,  and borrow to fund their lifestyle.  They currently owe 80K+ in credit card bills (0 percent balance transfers about to come due), and have a huge, completely tapped out equity line.  Any suggestions to cut back are always met with "oh no, I can't do that...."  They have a NW of about 1M in RE, and view that as living money just waiting to be tapped into somehow.  They've been living like this for decades, refinancing and borrowing over and over again.    The only thing I wonder is if they can borrow and borrow some more until they die, or will this whole thing come crashing down?   I see it as a race to the finish.

There are so many people like this, to some extent I am jealous of the ability to live the edge in a somewhat delusional way.  Even when the shit hits the fan and all is lost, they just don't pay or do BK or just work forever.  I can't live like that.   

I do fear (not real fear, but like ironic type fear) being one of these stories in the future where I am like "I don't know what went wrong, I was so responsible my whole life and now what do I do."  And a comment like yours goes something like "He FIRE'd in his 40's so how responsible could he have been, he just made bad choices and didn't want to work."  It would be true that I don't want to work though.  haha

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2969 on: May 05, 2020, 10:30:21 AM »
Similarly I get the sense that perhaps I'm being way too smug to have retired early. I mean, what makes me think I've got this poverty in retirement thing covered?

Surely I should have worked till 65 and saved up a "proper" stash!..:)

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2970 on: May 05, 2020, 12:35:29 PM »
I've been bored staying at home & the market is too crazy to watch, so I've been shopping for boats.  DW always dreamt of living at the coast, but I always said no because rising tides & hurricanes.  The threat of another 4 years of Trump has me looking for a ways to make an exit from the US, at least part-time, so that's where the boat idea came in. 


I grew up on a lake, so have always been around small boats, but don't know much about ocean going boats that are large enough to live and travel on.  I understand the basics about the different types of boats & am leaning towards a monohull sailboat.  Powerboats are easier to pilot, but are dead in the water without fuel.  Catamarans are fast but a PITA to park. 


I figured bigger is roomier & safer at sea, but obviously cost more to purchase, park, and maintain.  I figure we'd sell a house, so thought I'd use about 1/3 of the home value as a rough starting price for boat shopping, so approx $400K.  I started scanning the Yachtworld.com used listings, with the filters set sort of wide ranges; price $250-$550K and length 45-65 feet, to get an idea of the market. 


After a few enjoyable evenings of browsing I've looked at all kinds of boats.  I recently found a smaller boat, a Sirius 40 DS, that has a unique layout that gives it a lot more usable living space than you'd expect in a 40'.  Instead of walking down into the galley, there is a large salon/pilothouse/galley area that's level with the aft cockpit deck outside where you steer.  That leaves the entire lower level for bedrooms, bathrooms, storage space, etc.  (I'm sure I'm not explaining it very well, so here's a video link [size=78%]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMcxA5mDPwg[/size]


I was hoping to find a deal on a used one, but there weren't any listed.  New ones weren't as expensive as I'd expected, they start around $300K, so new wouldn't be out of the budget.  I'll have to do a lot more shopping & comparing (and "probably" should learn to sail!) before buying anything.  But I'm enjoying reading & dreaming about it all.


Do any of you have boating experience, advice, or stories to share? 

deborah

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2971 on: May 05, 2020, 12:58:38 PM »
A boat is a hole in the water that you pour money into.

A relative has an ocean going catamaran. Itís always being repaired. In fact, most boats are always being repaired. The first six or more months that he had it, it was being repaired. It then spent a month sailing oceans. It then spent six months being repaired. It then spent four months sailing. And six months being repaired...

They really enjoy sailing it. They have spent time sailing from tropical island to tropical island, snorkeling, seeing things that you canít see if you donít have your own private boat. They have also spent many months in harbours where they didnít want to be while the boat was being fixed. Remote tropical islands donít tend to have the facilities you need to maintain boats. Boat anchorage fees tend to be what the traffic can bear.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2972 on: May 05, 2020, 01:37:02 PM »
A boat is a hole in the water that you pour money into.

A relative has an ocean going catamaran. Itís always being repaired. In fact, most boats are always being repaired. The first six or more months that he had it, it was being repaired. It then spent a month sailing oceans. It then spent six months being repaired. It then spent four months sailing. And six months being repaired...

They really enjoy sailing it. They have spent time sailing from tropical island to tropical island, snorkeling, seeing things that you canít see if you donít have your own private boat. They have also spent many months in harbours where they didnít want to be while the boat was being fixed. Remote tropical islands donít tend to have the facilities you need to maintain boats. Boat anchorage fees tend to be what the traffic can bear.


I forgot about that part...  :(



I wonder why they break down so much?  I guess there's a lot of stuff that can go wrong, electrical, mechanical, rigging & sails, kitchen & bath, A/C & heat, plumbing, & stuff I can't even think of.  But if you only sail to nice places & have plenty of alcohol stocked, at least you're in a good place to be stuck. 


Maybe new boats come with good warranties?

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2973 on: May 05, 2020, 01:45:05 PM »
After a few enjoyable evenings of browsing I've looked at all kinds of boats.  I recently found a smaller boat, a Sirius 40 DS, that has a unique layout that gives it a lot more usable living space than you'd expect in a 40'.  Instead of walking down into the galley, there is a large salon/pilothouse/galley area that's level with the aft cockpit deck outside where you steer.  That leaves the entire lower level for bedrooms, bathrooms, storage space, etc.  (I'm sure I'm not explaining it very well, so here's a video link [size=78%]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RMcxA5mDPwg[/size]

I was hoping to find a deal on a used one, but there weren't any listed.  New ones weren't as expensive as I'd expected, they start around $300K, so new wouldn't be out of the budget.  I'll have to do a lot more shopping & comparing (and "probably" should learn to sail!) before buying anything.  But I'm enjoying reading & dreaming about it all.

Do any of you have boating experience, advice, or stories to share?
I am a landlubber to my core, but damn, this is amazing!

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2974 on: May 05, 2020, 02:25:39 PM »
A boat is a hole in the water that you pour money into.

A relative has an ocean going catamaran. Itís always being repaired. In fact, most boats are always being repaired. The first six or more months that he had it, it was being repaired. It then spent a month sailing oceans. It then spent six months being repaired. It then spent four months sailing. And six months being repaired...

They really enjoy sailing it. They have spent time sailing from tropical island to tropical island, snorkeling, seeing things that you canít see if you donít have your own private boat. They have also spent many months in harbours where they didnít want to be while the boat was being fixed. Remote tropical islands donít tend to have the facilities you need to maintain boats. Boat anchorage fees tend to be what the traffic can bear.


I forgot about that part...  :(



I wonder why they break down so much?  I guess there's a lot of stuff that can go wrong, electrical, mechanical, rigging & sails, kitchen & bath, A/C & heat, plumbing, & stuff I can't even think of.  But if you only sail to nice places & have plenty of alcohol stocked, at least you're in a good place to be stuck. 


Maybe new boats come with good warranties?

Salt water mostly.   Also, sun dry's things out and bad fuel whether from the providers bad tanks or condensation/water in your own can foul the engine components.  Electronics short out or go bad (again due to moisture)

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2975 on: May 05, 2020, 02:27:44 PM »
I've been bored staying at home & the market is too crazy to watch, so I've been shopping for boats.
Do any of you have boating experience, advice, or stories to share?

Shortly before the Covid lockdown, we were on safari in Africa, and seated in our group was a couple-- a sophisticated looking man in his 60's or more, and his newlywed Thai wife that looked about 25 or 30 and didn't speak much English. My intrigue radar honed in.   We ended up hitting it off with these two, and his story was fascinating.  He was/is a captain.  They live on a boat (yacht looking to me) and he's been traveling around the world for 20+ years.  More than 20 years!  He's living his dream! He had grown children and an ex-wife in North America, but loves sailing.  He and his new wife will sail to a port, then get out and go explore the land in a rented car.  Or fly somewhere from port and kick around for a while, like they were doing in Africa.      For work, he occasionally moves fancy boats from harbor to harbor for wealthy people.  His next gig was to sail someone's boat from Thailand to Hong Kong for it's owner.  He says he's wrapping up his travels in another few years.   We were invited, and may go when the lockdown is over, to Asia to meet up with them for an adventure. 

But if I had any advice, it would be to literally and figuratively "test the waters" before you sell everything and hit the point of no return.   Maybe go rent a boat in Greece.  They've got a whole infrastructure of boat rentals for people whose dream is to sail the Greek Islands.   Rent one for a month and see if you like it.  Then, if you do, sell the house and go for it.   I've told the story on this thread about a couple from the Midwest that we met bicycling in Europe.  They sold their house and bought one in France... living the dream.  We met them about a year later and they hated it and were ready to go back home. But now they  had no home to go back to and much diminished resources. 

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2976 on: May 05, 2020, 05:20:59 PM »
A relatively short walk from my home is a marina.  Near the marina is a bar.  It has pictures of the local boats posted all over and witty sayings.  One comes to mind:

These are the two happiest days of any boat owner:

The day he buys it.
The day he sells it.


Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2977 on: May 05, 2020, 07:58:10 PM »
This is probably unfounded but my biggest fear would be pirates!

The thought of being anchoured off an island and approached by a group of guys with AK47's in the middle of the night is not exactly my idea of fun.


marty998

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2978 on: May 05, 2020, 08:39:18 PM »
A relatively short walk from my home is a marina.  Near the marina is a bar.  It has pictures of the local boats posted all over and witty sayings.  One comes to mind:

These are the two happiest days of any boat owner:

The day he buys it.
The day he sells it.

It's funny how I never hear about women buying boats. Perhaps they really are better at avoiding expensive toys.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2979 on: May 05, 2020, 10:29:05 PM »
A relatively short walk from my home is a marina.  Near the marina is a bar.  It has pictures of the local boats posted all over and witty sayings.  One comes to mind:

These are the two happiest days of any boat owner:

The day he buys it.
The day he sells it.

It's funny how I never hear about women buying boats. Perhaps they really are better at avoiding expensive toys.

I've known a few who've bought airplanes though. Two of them were high performance birds and one was a co-builder with her Husband.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2980 on: May 06, 2020, 06:58:06 AM »
A relatively short walk from my home is a marina.  Near the marina is a bar.  It has pictures of the local boats posted all over and witty sayings.  One comes to mind:

These are the two happiest days of any boat owner:

The day he buys it.
The day he sells it.

It's funny how I never hear about women buying boats. Perhaps they really are better at avoiding expensive toys.

I've known a few who've bought airplanes though. Two of them were high performance birds and one was a co-builder with her Husband.


There's plenty of ladies buying horses. 

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2981 on: May 06, 2020, 07:12:49 AM »
Hmmmm,  hmmmmm.  Maybe this buyin' a boat thing makes sense.  I'll bet being a pirate has a better return than I'll get with the 4 percent rule.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2982 on: May 06, 2020, 07:48:02 AM »
Hmmmm,  hmmmmm.  Maybe this buyin' a boat thing makes sense.  I'll bet being a pirate has a better return than I'll get with the 4 percent rule.

Longevity is much shorter so you won't need to save as much either!    Double win!

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2983 on: May 06, 2020, 08:49:05 AM »
This is probably unfounded but my biggest fear would be pirates!

The thought of being anchoured off an island and approached by a group of guys with AK47's in the middle of the night is not exactly my idea of fun.
100% agree.

PathtoFIRE

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2984 on: May 06, 2020, 10:57:41 AM »
This is probably unfounded but my biggest fear would be pirates!

The thought of being anchoured off an island and approached by a group of guys with AK47's in the middle of the night is not exactly my idea of fun.

Submarine

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2985 on: May 06, 2020, 11:34:55 AM »
Very imaginative website..:)

dogboyslim

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2986 on: May 06, 2020, 12:04:07 PM »
There is no shortage of youtube channels about boats, many of them cover costs.  Marina fees are exorbitant, especially in popular locations.  Pirates are mostly in known locations also so can be avoided in the Caribbean, but no guarantees.

Boats are always breaking because they are exposed to water, UV rays, and constant forces from wave action.  Things are crammed into tiny, hard to reach locations, and getting parts is a challenge.  Sailboats also have a lot of lines that fray, tangle and have stress of use.  Standing rigging pulls hard on the chain-plates, so you have to constantly check tension and any hull joints to be sure they stay water tight.  Through-hull fittings are scary, and if they break you sink.  Any leaks into the fuel system and you damage the engine.

If you buy new, know that it won't include the cost of radios and nav equipment.  The boat mentioned is made in Europe, so if you want used, look over there.  Also, 40 ft isn't small (until you are stuck in the middle of a storm on open water with no escape).

Basically, before you do this, I encourage you to join a crew on a passage.  Watch what breaks, how it has to be fixed and make sure you enjoy it.

Personally I'd love it.  Always having a project, freedom to go where you want, and minimal interaction with others unless you want it.  But it is not a sit back and relax lifestyle by any stretch.

General rule of thumb, plan to spend 10-20% of the purchase price on annual operating expenses.

A Few channels I like are sailing soulianis (mostly because I almost purchased a Tartan 37 and love seeing what they are doing to it), Chase the Story (they purchase a new catamaran and sail it from europe to the US, good to see how even new boats have issues), some of the earlier stuff from sailing lavagabond (more recently they are on a sponsored catamaran, the early episodes are more what it would be like for normal people without sponsors), and Wicked Salty.  They had a boat sink due to a thru-hull fitting.

Best of luck!


Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2987 on: May 06, 2020, 08:26:05 PM »
I've had Catamaran fever off and on for years.  Just last week I had to fight through it when a Lagoon 440 became available in Maryland.  I'd mentally justified the $330K purchase, refit and annual upkeep.  I got over it.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2988 on: May 06, 2020, 09:48:57 PM »
Is it out of mind crazy to consider building your own?  I'll bet there's a huge markup on the new ones.  If you are retired, you've got time.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2989 on: May 06, 2020, 10:07:22 PM »
Is it out of mind crazy to consider building your own?  I'll bet there's a huge markup on the new ones.  If you are retired, you've got time.




I was hoping to buy one from you after you become a pirate.  It would take you forever to build one. 


But if you really want to build one I found a free boat building school for you.  [size=78%]https://www.sirius-werft.de/wpsirius/de/die-werft/ausbildung/[/size]   

jeroly

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2990 on: May 06, 2020, 11:06:30 PM »
This is probably unfounded but my biggest fear would be pirates!

The thought of being anchoured off an island and approached by a group of guys with AK47's in the middle of the night is not exactly my idea of fun.

Submarine
I once coveted a submarine, but eventually moved on from that phase...

One

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2991 on: May 07, 2020, 12:49:59 AM »
It really is a crazy situation to be in, one where an investor can't win.  If you want to get out, then you're missing out on what the Fed promises to be a free-for all buffet lunch for the market.  The Fed clearly said today that economic activity is too low, businesses need to be kept alive, and Congress has to get more money out to consumers. 

But if you stay invested, you know you are holding assets that are being propped up by issuing debt.  The government may be able to issue a lot of debt for a long time, but what if they can't?  It is common sense that EPS expansion can't go on forever - investors ultimately want to own companies that increase earnings over time.  In the US, the earnings come from consumers (or exports) and that's all gone in an unprecedented way.  No one has any idea what earnings will be or how long it will take for things to return to 'normal'.  In the meantime, many businesses will simply be unable to make money, but still have to service debt, pay rents, pay employees...

So, do you hold your bets for a few more days/weeks/months, thinking there's probably another few trillion coming from the Fed and Congress or do you rationalize that you're already pretty lucky to be able to sell stuff at inflated prices and sit out the roller coaster ride?

If only bonds or real estate offered a viable alternative!  I'm sure there will be lots of great opportunities to buy stuff at reasonable prices at some point, I just hope I'm patient enough not to blow myself up in the meantime.  I really have no idea what a reasonable S&P500 level is until we get some idea of earnings, so if it falls, how do you know when it has hit the floor?

Exactly what I'm feeling.  All common sense is gone.

I cashed out about 25% of our total market holdings before the market dropped.  The writing on the wall was just way too clear about where the market was heading.  Then I watched the market tumble down and wished I had sold it all.  I've watched this insanely optimistic surge as prices rebound.  I couldn't stand it anymore and sold another 50+% today, so that now we are about 80% allocated to cash.  New contributions are still going into the market, but I want a lot of dry powder when the market realizes the full consequences of the pandemic.

The market behavior is completely irrational.  I don't care if the Fed is flooding the stagnating economy with cash.  The disease has been spreading even with the lockdowns and restrictions.  This re-opening is going to wake a lot of people up to the consequences of the disease as more people get infected and die.  Huge portions of the economy will not be the same for years - restaurants, travel, sports and entertainment, casinos - anything that requires a bunch of people to gather in one place.  The market was objectively overvalued before the coronavirus crash.  It's closer to fairly valued now if Covid-19 wasn't present.  With Covid-19 still spreading and the U.S. and global economic consequences not yet being felt, I'm convinced we're in a for very bumpy ride.  I just made a seven figure bet on this, so I hope I'm right...

This bouncing of the market on what could hardly be called good news for the economy is driving me nuts.  The whole world is shut down to some degree or other.  Ok, New Zealand might reopen soon.  That won't exactly kick start the world economy.   It just feels like my money is in the hands of crazy people.  Why would the market go down, then up, up, and up some more? Up?  Really?  Why?  The world economy is in the toilet, we just added a huge amount of national debt,  and it's likely to get worse before it gets better.  I'm completely baffled.   It makes no sense to me.

This interview from a week ago was pretty good at explaining whatís going on in the stock markets. He tells you about all the horrible things going on and then why the markets are rising at 11:20.  Seemed like pretty good analysis. Stay safe and good luck.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G9HvukE56yM

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2992 on: May 07, 2020, 07:54:01 AM »
Is it out of mind crazy to consider building your own?  I'll bet there's a huge markup on the new ones.  If you are retired, you've got time.




I was hoping to buy one from you after you become a pirate.  It would take you forever to build one. 


But if you really want to build one I found a free boat building school for you.  [size=78%]https://www.sirius-werft.de/wpsirius/de/die-werft/ausbildung/[/size]

I ran it through translate and didn't see the school.  However, a quick search found this:

https://www.boats.com/on-the-water/10-homemade-boats-that-will-rock-your-world/

I think if pirates saw some of these, they'd pass you by.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2993 on: May 08, 2020, 10:01:11 PM »
Speaking of pirates...I wonder who's protecting all the cruise ships that are anchored around the Caribbean?  Arrrg!

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2994 on: May 09, 2020, 05:34:46 AM »
Well since I've avoided buying a boat thusfar, we've finally clawed back above 2.3M.  Still wondering if this rebound has any legs.  Too fast, too easy, too fake, too narrow. 

flyingaway

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2995 on: May 09, 2020, 08:25:40 AM »
Well since I've avoided buying a boat thusfar, we've finally clawed back above 2.3M.  Still wondering if this rebound has any legs.  Too fast, too easy, too fake, too narrow.

I really don't know what to believe or do, so I stay the course.

I am clueless.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2996 on: May 09, 2020, 08:49:14 AM »

This interview from a week ago was pretty good at explaining whatís going on in the stock markets. He tells you about all the horrible things going on and then why the markets are rising at 11:20.  Seemed like pretty good analysis. Stay safe and good luck.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=G9HvukE56yM

Thanks, that's an interesting interview. 

boatfire

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2997 on: May 09, 2020, 10:04:56 AM »
Boats

We owned a liveaboard capable coastal yacht while saving for FI in the US.  We're between boats right now but plan to return to cruising full time in a few years. We bought for under 50k USD, all maintenance, except for haul-outs was DIY with minimal expense.  Ran the boat for 6 seasons, 2 weekends/month, 9 months/year. Sold it for the purchase price.  6 years of berthing exceeded the purchase price. Fuel and insurance were insignificant costs (not in a hurricane zone).  The highest maintenance risk to a boat in saltwater is lack of use.

If you are willing to learn basic maintenance and repairs, all of which are available via forums and YT, the maintenance costs drop by 75%.

A comfortable trawler yacht (powerboat) for the US great loop + Bahamas can be acquired for 35-100k, with an additional refit cost.  Similar in sail, with the added ability to reach to the Caribbean (with experience).  Highly recommend starting with a sub 100k boat, there are many available and a much larger buyer pool when selling. There is a constant supply of recently retired buyers looking for well-sorted sub 100k vessels.

Herbert Derp

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2998 on: May 09, 2020, 07:18:22 PM »
Well, I'm up $150K since the great covid crash of February. Anyone else up since then? I feel like my money is getting increasingly divorced from reality. 2020 has been like the worst year ever. Being isolated for months has made me miserable, and I feel like my personal productivity has gone to the dumpster. But according to my financial accounts, I've never been more successful. Nothing makes sense anymore.

Spoiler: show
11/23/2012: $45,000.00
08/03/2013: $100,000.00
01/01/2016: $408,896.04
01/01/2017: $617,283.09
06/06/2017: $758,104.40
10/15/2017: $856,488.71
11/18/2017: $929,536.54
11/27/2017: $944,395.35
12/17/2017: $956,928.07
01/01/2018: $968,307.87
01/05/2018: $987,442.11
01/08/2018: $996,215.32
01/09/2018: $998,819.79
01/10/2018: $999,079.24
01/11/2018: $1,003,101.34
02/01/2018: $1,061,732.89
02/28/2018: $1,062,750.48
05/18/2018: $1,149,432.76
06/06/2018: $1,203,026.63
07/11/2018: $1,232,435.26
08/02/2018: $1,269,509.32
09/01/2018: $1,326,015.73
03/05/2019: $1,327,833.14
06/10/2019: $1,462,549.50
07/07/2019: $1,519,162.03
12/14/2019: $1,628,320.78
01/01/2020: $1,705,284.27
02/02/2020: $1,838,397.87
02/13/2020: $1,961,653.87
02/19/2020: $2,000,505.43
04/14/2020: $2,002,087.12
05/09/2020: $2,148,999.11

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2999 on: May 10, 2020, 07:07:00 AM »
At the moment, we are down $58,347 from the peak in February - which is nothing considering the economic devastation that so many are experiencing. I am really stepping up donations to various charities in my area.