Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 536444 times)

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2850 on: April 19, 2020, 12:12:59 AM »
Hahaha, I just got finished typing "Love you" to Slicey over in my journal and now you've dropped a love bomb on me. Squee!!! Aren't imaginary friends the best?

Hmmm, I'd be a bit worried about you packing off to Florida just now. They shut down far too late to be likely to have a good CV outcome. Will they see significant improvement in a week's time? I highly doubt it. More likely that it will be exponentially worse there in seven days. For you to have worked so hard and so long (nudge) and be struck down in this pandemic would be unbelievably sad.
« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 12:42:02 AM by Dicey »

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #2851 on: April 19, 2020, 12:27:19 AM »
Sounds like you are in a pretty good position.  Are you retired then or planning to ER?
I think the plan is to work another 3-4 years and then cash out of the rest of the business and be done.

I'm very fortunate to enjoy my work and get paid well, but this time working at home has opened my eyes to the idea that I can still work as much as I'd like in some capacity (but have to be realistic that I won't get the plum overseas assignments anymore).  I think this little shake-up has re-invigorated my desire to ER and retake more control over my time.  Plus I'm over 10 years older than you, so I'll be getting to Medicare, SS, and no-penalty 401k withdrawals with plenty of assets even if I just stay in cash.  I used to stress a bit over thinking ER wouldn't be all that much better or possibly disappointing, but I think I can swing something with my employer that will be mutually beneficial and gets me more of an ER lifestyle.

It's a bit of a wake up call to realize this:  What the heck is all that money good for if you die of Covid 19 before you get to enjoy it?  Fire already, people!  Or at least ramp it back to where it's part of your life, not your whole life.

You're right JoJo.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2852 on: April 19, 2020, 12:35:29 AM »
Hahaha, I just got finished typing "Love you" to Slicey over in my journal and now you've dropped a love bomb on me. Squee!!! Aren't imaginary friends the best?

Hmmm, I'd be a bit worried about you packing off to Florida just now. They shut down far too late to be likely to have a good CV outcome. Will they see significant improvement in a week's time? I highly doubt it. More l8kely that it will be exponentially worse there in seven days. For you to have worked so hard and so long (nudge) and be struck down in this pandemic would be unbelievably sad.

We may never meet face to face but your love and kindness towards others beams from your words.  I'd be proud to call you a friend in any context.  If we do travel to Florida we won't be leaving the house.  It's been unoccupied since January when we took a cruise out of Tampa.  We have a pantry full of food there and an ample toilet paper supply.  I can clean the pool, work in the yard and tidy up some inside projects.  We're on a huge lot and it's a huge house.   We'll be far greater distanced from others than here in Louisiana.  We'll see what next week brings.  It's a 600 mile drive each way.   But my wife may need the break.  Now go to bed.  I'm bullshiting on the clock right now.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 12:37:46 AM by Bateaux »

lhamo

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2853 on: April 19, 2020, 09:29:00 AM »
Bateaux, during your break -- maybe on that long drive -- please have a good discussion with your wife about her dreams/desires.  I understand not wanting to make life-altering decisions while under a huge amount of stress, but I wonder why your response to her wish to quit now was not "go right ahead!"  You guys have plenty of money.  More money, most likely, than time.  You don't have to retire in lockstep. 

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2854 on: April 19, 2020, 01:27:08 PM »
Bateaux, during your break -- maybe on that long drive -- please have a good discussion with your wife about her dreams/desires.  I understand not wanting to make life-altering decisions while under a huge amount of stress, but I wonder why your response to her wish to quit now was not "go right ahead!"  You guys have plenty of money.  More money, most likely, than time.  You don't have to retire in lockstep.

We approached the topic last night on the phone.  Yes she can quit now if she wants.  But our current agreement is what the heck is there to do besides work right now anyway.  I'm currently working on a 7 on and 7 off schedule.  Having every other week off is great.   We could be in vacation mode nearly half the time.  It's progressing and yes it is ultimately her decision.  We are in a great financial position and it's most likely only going to improve long-term.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2855 on: April 19, 2020, 02:06:25 PM »
Ah, I love all you folks!  Thank God someone said it first.

Good luck with that talk, Bateaux.   Freedom to choose is amazing.  I'm sure your wife will be comfortable with what ever path she takes, knowing she has the freedom to change her mind in any direction.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2856 on: April 19, 2020, 03:37:18 PM »
I appreciate seeing the love-fest on this forum. I feel grateful for the wonderful people i have “met” and met on video chat and in real life due to this forum. It adds a lot to my life.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2857 on: April 19, 2020, 03:57:07 PM »
Hahaha, I just got finished typing "Love you" to Slicey over in my journal and now you've dropped a love bomb on me. Squee!!! Aren't imaginary friends the best?

Hmmm, I'd be a bit worried about you packing off to Florida just now. They shut down far too late to be likely to have a good CV outcome. Will they see significant improvement in a week's time? I highly doubt it. More l8kely that it will be exponentially worse there in seven days. For you to have worked so hard and so long (nudge) and be struck down in this pandemic would be unbelievably sad.

We may never meet face to face but your love and kindness towards others beams from your words.  I'd be proud to call you a friend in any context.  If we do travel to Florida we won't be leaving the house.  It's been unoccupied since January when we took a cruise out of Tampa.  We have a pantry full of food there and an ample toilet paper supply.  I can clean the pool, work in the yard and tidy up some inside projects.  We're on a huge lot and it's a huge house.   We'll be far greater distanced from others than here in Louisiana.  We'll see what next week brings.  It's a 600 mile drive each way.   But my wife may need the break.  Now go to bed.  I'm bullshiting on the clock right now.
Awww, thanks for the love, @Bateaux! Okay, I'm thinking...can you make it all the way in one day? What about food, gas and pit stops? What's your plan if things aren't open along the way? Could you bring enough fresh food with you that you would be able to stay out of FL grocery stores for at least two weeks? What if you need medical care? Will your health insurance cover you if you're out of state? Would you even know of a doctor to go to in FL if something happened? Do you have enough medical supplies (Tylenol, cough & cold remedies, disinfectant, masks, any normal meds, etc.) to take care of yourselves/treat any symptoms that might appear? If you have all those logistics figured out, then I think it would be okay to consider going to FL, but I'd prefer (haha, listen to me) you go there and stay there until this thing blows over, not moving back and forth. How much vacay time do you have accrued?

One last thing - toss a box of gloves in the car and never touch a gas pump without putting a fresh pair on. Toss them before you get back in the car. Wouldn't hurt to keep your mask handy either. At least it will minimize gas fumes, for the win. And if you have an electric vehicle, same goes for the charging stations.

And +1 to all the sages encouraging you to use this time to heart-to-heart with your wife.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2858 on: April 19, 2020, 09:16:28 PM »
Hahaha, I just got finished typing "Love you" to Slicey over in my journal and now you've dropped a love bomb on me. Squee!!! Aren't imaginary friends the best?

Hmmm, I'd be a bit worried about you packing off to Florida just now. They shut down far too late to be likely to have a good CV outcome. Will they see significant improvement in a week's time? I highly doubt it. More l8kely that it will be exponentially worse there in seven days. For you to have worked so hard and so long (nudge) and be struck down in this pandemic would be unbelievably sad.

We may never meet face to face but your love and kindness towards others beams from your words.  I'd be proud to call you a friend in any context.  If we do travel to Florida we won't be leaving the house.  It's been unoccupied since January when we took a cruise out of Tampa.  We have a pantry full of food there and an ample toilet paper supply.  I can clean the pool, work in the yard and tidy up some inside projects.  We're on a huge lot and it's a huge house.   We'll be far greater distanced from others than here in Louisiana.  We'll see what next week brings.  It's a 600 mile drive each way.   But my wife may need the break.  Now go to bed.  I'm bullshiting on the clock right now.
Awww, thanks for the love, @Bateaux! Okay, I'm thinking...can you make it all the way in one day? What about food, gas and pit stops? What's your plan if things aren't open along the way? Could you bring enough fresh food with you that you would be able to stay out of FL grocery stores for at least two weeks? What if you need medical care? Will your health insurance cover you if you're out of state? Would you even know of a doctor to go to in FL if something happened? Do you have enough medical supplies (Tylenol, cough & cold remedies, disinfectant, masks, any normal meds, etc.) to take care of yourselves/treat any symptoms that might appear? If you have all those logistics figured out, then I think it would be okay to consider going to FL, but I'd prefer (haha, listen to me) you go there and stay there until this thing blows over, not moving back and forth. How much vacay time do you have accrued?

One last thing - toss a box of gloves in the car and never touch a gas pump without putting a fresh pair on. Toss them before you get back in the car. Wouldn't hurt to keep your mask handy either. At least it will minimize gas fumes, for the win. And if you have an electric vehicle, same goes for the charging stations.

And +1 to all the sages encouraging you to use this time to heart-to-heart with your wife.

I need about 2 stops over and 2 stops back.  There is little we'll need once there.  We absolutely could make do without visiting a store.  We prepped for a hurricane while there last Fall that was luckily a no show.  Much of that is still in place.  I'll be ok.  Majored in Microbiology, Army service, multiple decades of work around stuff so toxic that one breath can kill.  I'm a pretty good prepper.  I do appreciate the concern.  DW needs to see her pretty house for a little while.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2859 on: April 20, 2020, 05:20:56 AM »
FWIW the latest projections from https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida show Florida deaths <1,500 through end of July assuming social distancing continues through May. That took a very optimistic turn compared to what the projections were just 12-14 days ago. Most of my wife's family is down there (Citrus County and Tampa) and it's not all doom and gloom.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2860 on: April 20, 2020, 12:57:21 PM »
FWIW the latest projections from https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/florida show Florida deaths <1,500 through end of July assuming social distancing continues through May. That took a very optimistic turn compared to what the projections were just 12-14 days ago. Most of my wife's family is down there (Citrus County and Tampa) and it's not all doom and gloom.

Our part of Citrus is pretty spaced out.  Probably a person per acre.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2861 on: April 20, 2020, 01:01:44 PM »
I'm slipping in negative cost oil here on the gulf coast.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2862 on: April 20, 2020, 04:24:16 PM »
From somebody above:

"It's a bit of a wake up call to realize this:  What the heck is all that money good for if you die of Covid 19 before you get to enjoy it?  Fire already, people!  Or at least ramp it back to where it's part of your life, not your whole life."

Good Sense - Finally gave them notice today.  Does all this retirement stuff actually work or is it all faked like the moon shot was years ago?

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2863 on: April 20, 2020, 04:32:35 PM »
From somebody above:

"It's a bit of a wake up call to realize this:  What the heck is all that money good for if you die of Covid 19 before you get to enjoy it?  Fire already, people!  Or at least ramp it back to where it's part of your life, not your whole life."

Good Sense - Finally gave them notice today.  Does all this retirement stuff actually work or is it all faked like the moon shot was years ago?

It's working great for us!   2 years this May 1st.

I am absolutely thrilled that neither of us have to go to work at someone's beck and call.

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2864 on: April 20, 2020, 04:38:40 PM »
Congratulations @pecunia!! What's your notice period?

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2865 on: April 20, 2020, 07:32:23 PM »
Congratulations @pecunia!! What's your notice period?

It should be the first week in May.  The project is expected to be complete May 1st.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2866 on: April 20, 2020, 07:42:38 PM »


Congratulations @pecunia!! What's your notice period?

It should be the first week in May.  The project is expected to be complete May 1st.

That's what it is all about!  Good luck and keep us informed on your progress.  All our best to you.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2867 on: April 20, 2020, 10:17:49 PM »
Hey great news @pecunia !

@Dicey —yeah, I deserve that side-eye.  we’re FI, I consider my gig RE in place.  I have a very nervous IBL, she just has expensive tastes in bags.

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2868 on: April 21, 2020, 12:57:55 AM »


Congratulations @pecunia!! What's your notice period?

It should be the first week in May.  The project is expected to be complete May 1st.

That's what it is all about!  Good luck and keep us informed on your progress.  All our best to you.
Wow that's so soon!! I'm always amazed at the shortness of US notice periods. Freedom is close!

Car Jack

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2869 on: April 21, 2020, 07:22:45 AM »
US notice requirements are essentially zero because in most cases where a company isn't closing a major facility, they can let us go on the spot.  It's common to give 2 weeks notice to potentially receive good future referrals.  But in practice, corporations are so gun shy to give any reference, they typically can give exactly 2 pieces of information.  That you worked for them and the time period that you worked.  That's it.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2870 on: April 22, 2020, 08:20:21 AM »
From somebody above:

"It's a bit of a wake up call to realize this:  What the heck is all that money good for if you die of Covid 19 before you get to enjoy it?  Fire already, people!  Or at least ramp it back to where it's part of your life, not your whole life."

Good Sense - Finally gave them notice today.  Does all this retirement stuff actually work or is it all faked like the moon shot was years ago?

That's great news!  Congratulations on pulling the plug officially!  Let us know when you take that small step on the moon walk of freedom for pecunia-kind!

That was my little quote above.  Life is short, let's make it sweet...

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2871 on: April 22, 2020, 09:47:01 AM »
Truck is loaded.  Headed to the Florida house now.  If we make 250K while we are gone I'm staying for good.  🌞😎

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2872 on: April 22, 2020, 10:54:24 AM »
Truck is loaded.  Headed to the Florida house now.  If we make 250K while we are gone I'm staying for good.  🌞😎
Careful there, cowboy. There are people who will hold you to that ;-) Happy trails, friend.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2873 on: April 22, 2020, 11:10:11 AM »
Well, here I am. Coming here with my tail between my legs. I was supposed to turn in my notice Monday and I didn't do it. Why? I let my husband talk me out of it. He got scared because our portfolio decreased $600k. He said "nobody is quitting their job right now", and he's worried he will lose his. (note- the impact COVID is having on Universities is huge) I did take the time to show him cFIREsim and two other similar retirement models and that helped a little but he still isn't totally convinced neither of us have to work.
So new plan for Bean. My work has said they will be completely flexible with me (I tried to get furloughed-didn't work) and I can work from home as much as I want once our home office opens back up. For the summer our nanny is going to come back and work two days a week for us (this helps her as the theme park she also works at will most likely be closed), I will work from home two days and take every Friday or every Friday afternoon off. Then in the fall we'll reevaluate again. I may consider looking for part time then or just quit all together. Hopefully the Universities drop in enrollment won't be quite as bad as everyone is predicting.
sigh- I'm disappointed in myself.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2874 on: April 22, 2020, 11:42:11 AM »
Well, here I am. Coming here with my tail between my legs. I was supposed to turn in my notice Monday and I didn't do it. Why? I let my husband talk me out of it. He got scared because our portfolio decreased $600k. He said "nobody is quitting their job right now", and he's worried he will lose his. (note- the impact COVID is having on Universities is huge) I did take the time to show him cFIREsim and two other similar retirement models and that helped a little but he still isn't totally convinced neither of us have to work.
So new plan for Bean. My work has said they will be completely flexible with me (I tried to get furloughed-didn't work) and I can work from home as much as I want once our home office opens back up. For the summer our nanny is going to come back and work two days a week for us (this helps her as the theme park she also works at will most likely be closed), I will work from home two days and take every Friday or every Friday afternoon off. Then in the fall we'll reevaluate again. I may consider looking for part time then or just quit all together. Hopefully the Universities drop in enrollment won't be quite as bad as everyone is predicting.
sigh- I'm disappointed in myself.

And so you should be..:)

Honestly as long as you are not desperate to get out then its fine.. Work a few more months, hit new portfolio highs and have a WR of 2 to 3%.. Its all good.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2875 on: April 22, 2020, 11:54:52 AM »
Well, here I am. Coming here with my tail between my legs. I was supposed to turn in my notice Monday and I didn't do it. Why? I let my husband talk me out of it. He got scared because our portfolio decreased $600k. He said "nobody is quitting their job right now", and he's worried he will lose his. (note- the impact COVID is having on Universities is huge) I did take the time to show him cFIREsim and two other similar retirement models and that helped a little but he still isn't totally convinced neither of us have to work.
So new plan for Bean. My work has said they will be completely flexible with me (I tried to get furloughed-didn't work) and I can work from home as much as I want once our home office opens back up. For the summer our nanny is going to come back and work two days a week for us (this helps her as the theme park she also works at will most likely be closed), I will work from home two days and take every Friday or every Friday afternoon off. Then in the fall we'll reevaluate again. I may consider looking for part time then or just quit all together. Hopefully the Universities drop in enrollment won't be quite as bad as everyone is predicting.
sigh- I'm disappointed in myself.

And so you should be..:)

Honestly as long as you are not desperate to get out then its fine.. Work a few more months, hit new portfolio highs and have a WR of 2 to 3%.. Its all good.

Well, I was desperate. But this time working from home with the kids has taken some of the pressure off. I'm getting more time with them. I don't have to commute. All of their activities have been suspended because of COVID so we aren't as busy. So for the time being I guess it make sense.

I would love to think that in six months we'll be hitting new portfolio highs, but I don't see how that is possible. I think recovery is going to be a long haul. What is everyone's thoughts on the recovery?

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2876 on: April 22, 2020, 01:34:06 PM »
Well, here I am. Coming here with my tail between my legs. I was supposed to turn in my notice Monday and I didn't do it. Why? I let my husband talk me out of it. He got scared because our portfolio decreased $600k. He said "nobody is quitting their job right now", and he's worried he will lose his. (note- the impact COVID is having on Universities is huge) I did take the time to show him cFIREsim and two other similar retirement models and that helped a little but he still isn't totally convinced neither of us have to work.
So new plan for Bean. My work has said they will be completely flexible with me (I tried to get furloughed-didn't work) and I can work from home as much as I want once our home office opens back up. For the summer our nanny is going to come back and work two days a week for us (this helps her as the theme park she also works at will most likely be closed), I will work from home two days and take every Friday or every Friday afternoon off. Then in the fall we'll reevaluate again. I may consider looking for part time then or just quit all together. Hopefully the Universities drop in enrollment won't be quite as bad as everyone is predicting.
sigh- I'm disappointed in myself.
At least you have an improved work plan. Under the circumstances, I think at least a temporary pass can be arranged.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2877 on: April 22, 2020, 02:36:17 PM »
Well, I was desperate. But this time working from home with the kids has taken some of the pressure off. I'm getting more time with them. I don't have to commute. All of their activities have been suspended because of COVID so we aren't as busy. So for the time being I guess it make sense.

I would love to think that in six months we'll be hitting new portfolio highs, but I don't see how that is possible. I think recovery is going to be a long haul. What is everyone's thoughts on the recovery?

Don’t be too hard on yourself, as these are unusual times.  It’s OK to be a little cautious.   In most cases working from home won’t interfere too much with sitting at home waiting on the world to get past the COVID situation.
 
I’m lousy at predicting what number the market indicators will hit be in the short term, but I too think the recovery will be a long haul.   There are many issues to overcome, even with liberal application of government stimulus money.   Even if a vaccine were to become widely available in June, it will take some time to work though the economic recovery.   

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2878 on: April 22, 2020, 02:57:39 PM »

I’m lousy at predicting what number the market indicators will hit be in the short term, but I too think the recovery will be a long haul.   There are many issues to overcome, even with liberal application of government stimulus money.   Even if a vaccine were to become widely available in June, it will take some time to work though the economic recovery.

Average length of time for a recession in the US is 1.5 years.   That's already backed into the 4% rule testing.   So if a recession lasts less than 1.5 years you were luckier than average and if it doesn't last that much longer, you were just a tad unluckier than average.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2879 on: April 22, 2020, 03:07:02 PM »
Well think of it this way @BeanCounter is still employed then her monthly purchases of stock in the 401k will be at a discount.

Heck, the company may even decide to offer buyouts.. How can one loose?..:)

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2880 on: April 22, 2020, 10:03:37 PM »
I think 12-18 months for a full recovery feels about right. Maybe even less.

Everyone is raring to get back to work as soon as it’s safe. We will have to see how much consumer and business confidence has been hit.

BeanCounter, don’t feel alone. My FIRE is also on hold whilst I see how this all plays out.

I got to 97% of my FIRE number in Feb at the market peak, so technically I am there and history says I am safe.... but a little voice keeps whispering in my head “past performance is no guarantee of future returns”.

At the moment we will FIRE in December if the world tracks positively between now and then.

I may still be below my number, but I don’t see that as an issue as I was already practically at my number previously in Feb and will have had an extra 10 months of salary and savings on top. Unless the world goes to shit in the next 8 months I will feel pretty confident heading into FIRE, drawing down what I had planned which might be more than 4% initially until the markets fully recover.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2881 on: April 23, 2020, 08:24:14 AM »
Well think of it this way @BeanCounter is still employed then her monthly purchases of stock in the 401k will be at a discount.

Heck, the company may even decide to offer buyouts.. How can one loose?..:)

Did someone say buyout?  I've got 28 years of service.   Yes please!

MaybeBabyMustache

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2882 on: April 23, 2020, 09:10:58 AM »
@BeanCounter - I'm in a similar position, & don't feel badly about it. I feel lucky to be in the position to have this option, and would add that COVID has made us both less risk averse. We basically want to save enough that we'd be okay if my husband lost his job indefinitely. The likelihood of neither of us being able to find work is...very small, but it helps us sleep at night, and things have changed so much, to your point.

I'm also loving the no commute time. Less homeschooling middle school boys. I used to travel internationally for work (typically every 8 weeks or so), & that was a huge reason for me to want to quit. That's off the table for quite a while, which is also helping.

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2883 on: April 23, 2020, 09:27:10 AM »
Well, here I am. Coming here with my tail between my legs. I was supposed to turn in my notice Monday and I didn't do it. Why? I let my husband talk me out of it. He got scared because our portfolio decreased $600k. He said "nobody is quitting their job right now", and he's worried he will lose his. (note- the impact COVID is having on Universities is huge) I did take the time to show him cFIREsim and two other similar retirement models and that helped a little but he still isn't totally convinced neither of us have to work.
So new plan for Bean. My work has said they will be completely flexible with me (I tried to get furloughed-didn't work) and I can work from home as much as I want once our home office opens back up. For the summer our nanny is going to come back and work two days a week for us (this helps her as the theme park she also works at will most likely be closed), I will work from home two days and take every Friday or every Friday afternoon off. Then in the fall we'll reevaluate again. I may consider looking for part time then or just quit all together. Hopefully the Universities drop in enrollment won't be quite as bad as everyone is predicting.
sigh- I'm disappointed in myself.

And so you should be..:)

Honestly as long as you are not desperate to get out then its fine.. Work a few more months, hit new portfolio highs and have a WR of 2 to 3%.. Its all good.

Well, I was desperate. But this time working from home with the kids has taken some of the pressure off. I'm getting more time with them. I don't have to commute. All of their activities have been suspended because of COVID so we aren't as busy. So for the time being I guess it make sense.

I would love to think that in six months we'll be hitting new portfolio highs, but I don't see how that is possible. I think recovery is going to be a long haul. What is everyone's thoughts on the recovery?

That all makes sense to me, and I for one have taken the route of slowing down over time, as once I leave that would hard to impossible to reverse at anywhere near my current pay rate.  The last couple years I've been working from home for about 25 hrs/wk as opposed to the 50+ I was doing.  Was going to FIRE this year, but my needed hours have decreased even more so far this year, so I'm just going to continue (I frankly like some hours more than none, esp. since travel is out for now...). This is obviously a lot easier than your schedule (esp. since it my kids are all a lot older than yours).

The market drop was not very shocking in how far it dropped (even minus a pandemic watching the market drop 30% over a year or so would not have been that surprising to me given what the past 10 years have given us), but how fast it happened made the head spin.  I was then shocked at how fast it came half-way back given all the uncertainty, so I obviously have no gauge for whats next, being at new highs or new lows by June both seem on the table to me.

I find it interesting re: the impact on universities.  I guess I would expect jobs to be at risk, but due to budget cuts (I suspect state revenues will be WAY down, and thus the state university funding, and maybe private university endowments due to market and giving), but I didn't really think about there being that big a difference in enrollment and thus need for university employees.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2884 on: April 23, 2020, 09:36:46 AM »
With all that's going on maybe the young people will realize why you might not fully retire well into your 50's.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2885 on: April 23, 2020, 09:55:40 AM »
Well, I was desperate. But this time working from home with the kids has taken some of the pressure off. I'm getting more time with them. I don't have to commute. All of their activities have been suspended because of COVID so we aren't as busy. So for the time being I guess it make sense.

I would love to think that in six months we'll be hitting new portfolio highs, but I don't see how that is possible. I think recovery is going to be a long haul. What is everyone's thoughts on the recovery?

Don’t be too hard on yourself, as these are unusual times.  It’s OK to be a little cautious.   In most cases working from home won’t interfere too much with sitting at home waiting on the world to get past the COVID situation.
 
I’m lousy at predicting what number the market indicators will hit be in the short term, but I too think the recovery will be a long haul.   There are many issues to overcome, even with liberal application of government stimulus money.   Even if a vaccine were to become widely available in June, it will take some time to work though the economic recovery.


Bean - If I was still working but ready to FIRE I would most likely keep the paycheck coming in with benefits just for cushion, especially if you are basically locked at home either way and not directly exposed. 

DJ - keep in mind the money being pumped into the system is not stimulus money its protection money that is attempting to preserve the economy as much as possible almost in a form stasis - there is no growth caused by these funds.  There will likely be more rounds of this protective money and then rounds of stimulus money and continued low rates.   

I think the economy will spring back quite a bit but it will be some time and then we will have a much bigger overhang of debt that will drag growth.  And who the heck knows how to unwind all of this.   But the rest of the world is in it too so on a relative basis globally it should be close to neutral - ie it's not like the US is faltering while everyone else is growing.

desk_jockey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2886 on: April 23, 2020, 01:14:16 PM »
DJ - keep in mind the money being pumped into the system is not stimulus money its protection money that is attempting to preserve the economy as much as possible almost in a form stasis - there is no growth caused by these funds.  There will likely be more rounds of this protective money and then rounds of stimulus money and continued low rates.   

I think the economy will spring back quite a bit but it will be some time and then we will have a much bigger overhang of debt that will drag growth.  And who the heck knows how to unwind all of this.   But the rest of the world is in it too so on a relative basis globally it should be close to neutral - ie it's not like the US is faltering while everyone else is growing.

Understood.  I was just using the terminology used by the government and media.  Everything to date was really an emergency relief package or try-to-stop-a-panic package, and that stimulus rounds will come later.    Also, I wasn’t saying the 4% rule wouldn’t work as one response addressed.   

I just think it’s going to take more time to work though the situation than others seem to be considering.  1Q GDP numbers are going to be bad and 2Q numbers worse, so we are in a recession.   As we emerge from the medical crisis, 3Q or 4Q will certainly have better numbers that 2Q.  If 2Q GDP is down 30%, then a 10% increase from that in 3Q won’t be spectacular performance even if by official definition it means that the recession is over.

At the beginning of 2020 the market was fairly expensive by historical measures (e.g. PE10), somewhat priced for perfection.   At the present the market is down only 15% from the peak, which isn’t much. 

In my very limited survey, people tell me their (non-medical) companies are focused on reducing costs and delaying supplier payments.  Their salespeople are fielding customer requests for pricing reductions and payment considerations more than new sales.   Layoffs and furloughs are at astounding levels.   Already there are unprecedented numbers franchise-own hotels entering bankruptcy.  I imagine will see significant bankruptcies with restaurants and other heavily impacted businesses.

I don’t see it taking only 12-18 months to have a full recovery, if recovery means everything is back to 2019 GDP levels.  As we recover, companies won’t be as quick to rehire, bring back contractors & consultants, invest or return business travel to previous levels as they were to stop everything in March and April.  It should take more than 24 months to get back to where economic measures were at the end of 2019. 

To me, that makes it seem like the stock market is still relatively expensive and things should go down or move sideways for a while.  No, I haven’t sold to wait things out.  I still make regular scheduled investments and haven’t changed asset allocations.   But I’m also not scraping together every free dollar to buy extra because I’m convinced stocks are cheap and will bounce back quickly. 

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2887 on: April 23, 2020, 01:47:50 PM »
DJ - keep in mind the money being pumped into the system is not stimulus money its protection money that is attempting to preserve the economy as much as possible almost in a form stasis - there is no growth caused by these funds.  There will likely be more rounds of this protective money and then rounds of stimulus money and continued low rates.   

I think the economy will spring back quite a bit but it will be some time and then we will have a much bigger overhang of debt that will drag growth.  And who the heck knows how to unwind all of this.   But the rest of the world is in it too so on a relative basis globally it should be close to neutral - ie it's not like the US is faltering while everyone else is growing.

Understood.  I was just using the terminology used by the government and media.  Everything to date was really an emergency relief package or try-to-stop-a-panic package, and that stimulus rounds will come later.    Also, I wasn’t saying the 4% rule wouldn’t work as one response addressed.   

I just think it’s going to take more time to work though the situation than others seem to be considering.  1Q GDP numbers are going to be bad and 2Q numbers worse, so we are in a recession.   As we emerge from the medical crisis, 3Q or 4Q will certainly have better numbers that 2Q.  If 2Q GDP is down 30%, then a 10% increase from that in 3Q won’t be spectacular performance even if by official definition it means that the recession is over.

At the beginning of 2020 the market was fairly expensive by historical measures (e.g. PE10), somewhat priced for perfection.   At the present the market is down only 15% from the peak, which isn’t much. 

In my very limited survey, people tell me their (non-medical) companies are focused on reducing costs and delaying supplier payments.  Their salespeople are fielding customer requests for pricing reductions and payment considerations more than new sales.   Layoffs and furloughs are at astounding levels.   Already there are unprecedented numbers franchise-own hotels entering bankruptcy.  I imagine will see significant bankruptcies with restaurants and other heavily impacted businesses.

I don’t see it taking only 12-18 months to have a full recovery, if recovery means everything is back to 2019 GDP levels.  As we recover, companies won’t be as quick to rehire, bring back contractors & consultants, invest or return business travel to previous levels as they were to stop everything in March and April.  It should take more than 24 months to get back to where economic measures were at the end of 2019. 

To me, that makes it seem like the stock market is still relatively expensive and things should go down or move sideways for a while.  No, I haven’t sold to wait things out.  I still make regular scheduled investments and haven’t changed asset allocations.   But I’m also not scraping together every free dollar to buy extra because I’m convinced stocks are cheap and will bounce back quickly.

I basically agree with you.  I do spring back, as in open, but everything else will take longer.  I think we will "technically" get out of the recession fairly quickly (i.e two quarters of declining growth), heck by that definition the 3rd quarter may be the one that gets us out - all you have to do is go from nothing now to something then, right?

But everything else will take longer and I have said elsewhere we never turned off the stimulus or QE/Fed support from the financial crisis.

As for the markets, I clearly don't understand and don't time, just stick to my AA which is conservative.  But markets were definitely stretched going into this year for sure.  I felt before the QE/Rate cuts in 2019 that SP500 at 2900 was the high point of being fairly valued bc earnings didn't grow so I am really struggling to understand how it being at 2750-2850 now is appropriate, I mean I like it higher than lower, but I just don't get it.  Below is what I think of SP500 - $2600 or less is where I think it should be right now and honestly $2300 didn't and still doesn't seem crazy to me.    Not much I will do with it but I use it as a guide post.   

SP500 earnings  with 20PE IMO appropriate
2016...……………………………………………………………...$101...………………..$2020
2017...……………………………………………………………...$115...………………..$2300
2018 (tax cut, no growth otherwise)...……………$136...………………..$2720
2019 (no growth)...………………………………………….$140...………………..$2800
2020 (original est)…………………………………………...$162...………………..$3240
2020 (revised) ????………..doesn't matter, pe will be really high
2021???? (20% drop from 2020 est)………………$129...…………………$2592


Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2888 on: April 24, 2020, 06:42:54 AM »
Well think of it this way @BeanCounter is still employed then her monthly purchases of stock in the 401k will be at a discount.

Heck, the company may even decide to offer buyouts.. How can one loose?..:)

Did someone say buyout?  I've got 28 years of service.   Yes please!
Buyout? You don't need no stinkin' buyout!
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 04:20:45 PM by Dicey »

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2889 on: April 24, 2020, 01:27:11 PM »
Well think of it this way @BeanCounter is still employed then her monthly purchases of stock in the 401k will be at a discount.

Heck, the company may even decide to offer buyouts.. How can one loose?..:)

Did someone say buyout?  I've got 28 years of service.   Yes please!
Buyout? You dont need no stinkin' buyout!

August 2020 I'm considered a retiree.  Basically means we may be invited to the company picnic.  Won't be one this year.  It's 2023 to be offered their health care which isn't a great price anyways.  Haven't gotten a lot done in Florida this trip.  Friends are coming up from Orlando for Gumbo, red beans and Jambalaya tommorow.  They love my wife's Cajun Cooking.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2020, 01:29:39 PM by Bateaux »

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2890 on: April 25, 2020, 12:27:15 AM »
We were allowed out for the first time in a month yesterday (in Dubai). We had been in a full lockdown, even needing a permit to go to the supermarket. We were not even allowed outside to go for a walk.

I am very surprised that the authorities relaxed the restrictions quite dramatically at this time given new cases and deaths are still increasing every day. We haven’t reached a peak yet.

I think the combination of economic necessity and Ramadan triggered the move.

We are now allowed to exercise outdoors for up to 2 hours a day, offices can open with no more than 30% of staff working in company offices, shopping malls are open (but they are required to close of 75% of parking spaces to keep numbers of shoppers down. Restaurants and cafes are also open, however, not allowed to have more than 30% of tables used.

We must wear face masks everywhere outside our home.

Even bars around the city were opened from yesterday, and unsurprisingly after a month of not being open there were queues to get in. Bars are only allowed to operate at 30% of capacity and patrons are meant to wear masks. But as drinking beer and wearing face masks doesn’t work (unless you drink beer with a straw), face masks were pretty much abandoned.

It will be interesting to see whether this relaxation of restrictions results in an acceleration in new cases, or not.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2891 on: April 28, 2020, 03:38:03 AM »
Truck is loaded.  Headed to the Florida house now.  If we make 250K while we are gone I'm staying for good.  🌞😎
Careful there, cowboy. There are people who will hold you to that ;-) Happy trails, friend.

Headed back to Louisiana for work tomorrow.  Only made 25K this week off.  Hopefully back down here in two weeks.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2892 on: April 28, 2020, 09:25:12 AM »
Truck is loaded.  Headed to the Florida house now.  If we make 250K while we are gone I'm staying for good.  🌞😎
Careful there, cowboy. There are people who will hold you to that ;-) Happy trails, friend.

Headed back to Louisiana for work tomorrow.  Only made 25K this week off.  Hopefully back down here in two weeks.


You only made $25k in a week.. Poor love, what you doing out there.. Robbing banks?..:)

Reminds me, we watched the movie about Bernie Madoff with Robert De Niro (called the Wizard or Lies). It was great.. but what an a**hole that guy is/was.

At the end of the movie DW (who knows not so much about our financial affairs, although not as clueless as Madoff's wife was made out to be) asks me... "Soooo.. WE'RE not doing anything underhand are we?".. Well not to the tune of 50 Billion dollars we're not...:)

I guess our modest NW of somewhere around $3M is an unfathomable amount of moolah to my dear Wife..:)

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2893 on: April 28, 2020, 10:13:07 AM »
You only made $25k in a week.. Poor love, what you doing out there.. Robbing banks?..:)

Reminds me, we watched the movie about Bernie Madoff with Robert De Niro (called the Wizard or Lies). It was great.. but what an a**hole that guy is/was.

At the end of the movie DW (who knows not so much about our financial affairs, although not as clueless as Madoff's wife was made out to be) asks me... "Soooo.. WE'RE not doing anything underhand are we?".. Well not to the tune of 50 Billion dollars we're not...:)

I guess our modest NW of somewhere around $3M is an unfathomable amount of moolah to my dear Wife..:)

It does feel really odd to see the NW go up while the economy seems to be dead in the water.  I wouldn't say that I'm personally doing anything underhanded, but I feel a bit guilty about the US government taking out lots of debt on the backs of future generations so my portfolio can stay healthy.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2894 on: April 28, 2020, 12:28:09 PM »
Hi everyone - so I am a covid survivor :-) I was progressively feeling more sick by the day in early April and then developed a fever and cough. Got tested and found that I was indeed positive. However, thankfully, in my case, the fever broke after a few days and I was already on the mend by the time I got the test results. It took a few of weeks of misery but I'm now pretty much back to normal. It still feels a bit unreal - it was a close call.

Meanwhile, with no effort, our net worth has stabilized and we are only down about 16% from the peak it reached in February. Meanwhile, I am still employed and so is my wife. As @EscapeVelocity2020 says, it feels odd to be accumulating money when the economy is in deep freeze.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2895 on: April 28, 2020, 03:17:03 PM »
Indeed for me it all feels a bit surreal.. I mean Why is the market only down 16% when the economy is literally in the toilet? I can't see this holding up for too much longer.

Whats more the Government is going to send me $2400 to help me and DW out... Umm OK, thanks very much.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2896 on: April 28, 2020, 04:32:57 PM »
Truck is loaded.  Headed to the Florida house now.  If we make 250K while we are gone I'm staying for good.  🌞😎
Careful there, cowboy. There are people who will hold you to that ;-) Happy trails, friend.

Headed back to Louisiana for work tomorrow.  Only made 25K this week off.  Hopefully back down here in two weeks.


You only made $25k in a week.. Poor love, what you doing out there.. Robbing banks?..:)

Reminds me, we watched the movie about Bernie Madoff with Robert De Niro (called the Wizard or Lies). It was great.. but what an a**hole that guy is/was.

At the end of the movie DW (who knows not so much about our financial affairs, although not as clueless as Madoff's wife was made out to be) asks me... "Soooo.. WE'RE not doing anything underhand are we?".. Well not to the tune of 50 Billion dollars we're not...:)

I guess our modest NW of somewhere around $3M is an unfathomable amount of moolah to my dear Wife..:)

It did make it difficult to drive back from our Florida paradise today, to return to work tomorrow. My week at work will gross about 1/10 that.   It was a pretty good rebound week for the market.  We'd have made more if I'd moved back into being fully invested.  I'm happy with our position of safety however.  Could be back in Florida in a week if things work out.  But yes, Main Street is suffering and will continue to.   Wall Street couldn't care less with all the government debt making its way into the market.  There is an ever growing disparity between the have and have nots in our country.  We're closer to the have's. 

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2897 on: April 28, 2020, 04:42:25 PM »
Indeed for me it all feels a bit surreal.. I mean Why is the market only down 16% when the economy is literally in the toilet? I can't see this holding up for too much longer.

Whats more the Government is going to send me $2400 to help me and DW out... Umm OK, thanks very much.

Live the dream man.  Just don't wake up for a while.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2898 on: April 28, 2020, 05:57:35 PM »
   Wall Street couldn't care less with all the government debt making its way into the market.  There is an ever growing disparity between the have and have nots in our country.  We're closer to the have's.

Good point. I have friends who have been laid off and have nothing in savings.

I think anyone with over $1M in savings is vastly better off than some of our less fortunate.

Of course (at the risk of gloating) it also points out why not buying crap with money you don't have is generally a good idea.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2899 on: April 28, 2020, 06:27:07 PM »
   Wall Street couldn't care less with all the government debt making its way into the market.  There is an ever growing disparity between the have and have nots in our country.  We're closer to the have's.

Good point. I have friends who have been laid off and have nothing in savings.

I think anyone with over $1M in savings is vastly better off than some of our less fortunate.

Of course (at the risk of gloating) it also points out why not buying crap with money you don't have is generally a good idea.

I'm thinking the consumer may finally get just a bit scared of spending what they can't afford.  Since we are a consumption economy that is what may drag the economy and ultimately Wall Street down further.  Theee is no rational reason for the current rally.  I hope I'm wrong.  But yeah, we have extreme advantage over 90 percent of others right now.  I'm sure most of us started with next to nothing and hard work with good decisions brought you here.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2020, 06:29:21 PM by Bateaux »