Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 518781 times)

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2650 on: March 20, 2020, 01:28:14 PM »
Bateaux update. There are four people that work the job I do, on 12 hour rotation.  So normally without overtime, 25 percent of my time is at work.  Well, we just lost 2 guys to unexplained fevers in their household.  So they are quarantined for 14 days.  So I'm now on a 7 shift on 7 shift off rotation.  Except they won't necessarily be cleared in time to return and give me my 7 off.  My wife and her sister are headed to the Florida house without me now.  My vacation time is cancelled!  The Shit is hitting the fan in Louisiana.

Bateaux update:

Bateaux has no update.   Still working 12 hour night shift.  It's possible, I'll have Monday and Tuesday off. 

Wife not going to Florida now.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 01:32:00 PM by Bateaux »

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2651 on: March 20, 2020, 03:24:40 PM »
Speaking of (non) travel and with bond funds taking a hit alongside stocks I wondered what our base spend (i.e without travel other non essential spend)  would look like and compared that with our available cash.

I assumed our dividend payments might take a 30% hit too.

I came up with a comfortable cushion of about 6 years, so assuming this thing turns out to be not much worse than the 2008 pullback we would be OK without having to pull anything from our investments.

I guess these are nerve calming calculations at this point, but I'm sure glad we don't have any debt!

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2652 on: March 20, 2020, 04:17:26 PM »
I would not care to work 12 hour shifts.

I may have to work some in a few weeks if they don't shut our jobs down.

Years of income taken from me due to this current chaos.  It would take years of 12 hour shifts to get it back.

But,......Spring will still be here.

Threshkin

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2653 on: March 20, 2020, 04:38:37 PM »
There are predictions that next weeks unemployment claims will top 2,000,000+, and I'm wondering how the market will melt down on that. Q2 earnings/GDP contraction will also hurt. I wish the market would just bottom out and get it over with.

I finally threw in the towel and moved all my tax deferred accounts to cash positions.  I had to stop the bleeding.

So I expect that the bottom is now in.

tooqk4u22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2654 on: March 20, 2020, 05:06:35 PM »
There are predictions that next weeks unemployment claims will top 2,000,000+, and I'm wondering how the market will melt down on that. Q2 earnings/GDP contraction will also hurt. I wish the market would just bottom out and get it over with.

I finally threw in the towel and moved all my tax deferred accounts to cash positions.  I had to stop the bleeding.

So I expect that the bottom is now in.


Wow!!!!!!   Not criticizing, you may be right or not, but you need to do what is right for you.   

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2655 on: March 20, 2020, 06:36:47 PM »
I moved about 25% into cash before the market started dropping. It was the Monday before the first Tuesday 1000+ point drop. I knew I should be moving everything, but Iíve been a buy and hold guy for 20 years, and it has served me well; so it was a big step to move what I did. I was confident enough that we were heading this direction that I should have sold the rest at -10%, but I didnít. At this point, my remaining equity positions will ride this out, Iím happy my rental is paid off and my real estate positions are solid, and I have a chunk of cash waiting to go back in. Plus Iím still working, so new annual contributions are buying at a discount. But those equities, painful as it is to watch them drop, are staying fully invested for the long term.

JoJoP

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2656 on: March 20, 2020, 06:42:23 PM »
There are predictions that next weeks unemployment claims will top 2,000,000+, and I'm wondering how the market will melt down on that. Q2 earnings/GDP contraction will also hurt. I wish the market would just bottom out and get it over with.

I finally threw in the towel and moved all my tax deferred accounts to cash positions.  I had to stop the bleeding.

So I expect that the bottom is now in.

It's very stressful to watch years of hard earned savings evaporate.  I checked in this morning, was horrified, then sold all of my Consumer Discretionary ETF's and about half of my recently bought, tanking foreign ETF's.   I have very few holdings still in the green, most are in the red.  My overall return is about 10%- total.  About 4 out of 5 of my holdings are negative from purchase price.  That's dismal.   I'm much newer to this than most of you.   I had mortgages on the rentals at 6%, so glad I paid those off and don't have to worry so much about juggling cash flow.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 06:46:44 PM by JoJoP »

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2657 on: March 20, 2020, 07:43:19 PM »

Does anyone know if the following site has accurate data?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I note that from March 17 to March 18 in the USA, new deaths decreased from 23 to 7.

That data point is not consistent with an exponential growth curve.

It is possible the site is not a reliable source of information, although their about page seems good.

It is possible that it is a one day statistical blip.

It is possible that the swift panic/action by everyone has started to be successful.

I will be interested to watch the data over the next few weeks.

I am also interested in knowing accuracy of this data, who the sources are. But I have been following it for couple of weeks now.

If you look at instructions for the data, it resets 0 GMT everyday. So if you are looking for new death count for today you will have to wait until evening time in US. i.e. death rate continues to be in increasing trend.
These are due to disease contractions about 2-4 weeks ago.


I think the social distancing message effects will start probably after another 3 weeks.

Emphasis added.

Thank you.  I forgot the other option:  It is possible there is user error in understanding the data.  (This is an option I often ignore.  It would be wise for me to pay it more heed.)

I am still very interested to see when the rate of increase in death cases begins to drop.  The site I listed above was the first google-found data source that (a) gave me the data I was interested in, and (b) seemed reliable.  I picked it last night as the site to start watching before it showed data that appeared to be in line with my hoped-for outcome; in other words, I was not cherry-picking the site.  Although I could be fairly accused of cherry-picking the data.  I guess I'd prefer the term confirmation bias (that way I won't be as lonely).

As of right now, the number of new cases today compared to yesterday was up (4530->5786) but the number of new deaths was down (57->55).  I am hopeful that this is a turning point in the story.  I will be interested to see if or when the news reports that we have turned the corner; I suspect it will be some time from now.

ETA:  Even though it is now past 0:00 GMT and the site is supposed to be real time data, the numbers are still changing slightly.  Even so, if you look at the data, it clearly indicates that we have gone from an exponential rate of increase to a linear rate of increase to essentially flat in the last few days.  Again, maybe the data is wrong or inaccurate, or I'm misreading it, or whatever.  But I'm still hopeful for the moment.
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 07:53:52 PM by secondcor521 »

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2658 on: March 21, 2020, 02:00:53 AM »
I am a little surprised that some people here are (for want of a less emotive phrase) panic selling.

There will be a bottom and there will be a recovery.

In 2009 the S&P500 was below 900 points and even today it is still above 2,300 points. Even after this fall, stock values have grown impressively over the past 11 years, and have paid dividends on top.

Like I said, I am second guessing myself as I have been piling all my savings into equity in recent years, in what was a heated market. A correction was always likely, but I chose to ignore the risk. After some groaning I have come to the conclusion that I am am ok with that. The stock market has always been boom and bust and I choose to go along for the ride.

Fundamentally  I would have thought people here were firmly in the camp of belief that over long periods of time your savings will provide the greatest rerun being invested in stocks.

If you keep buying on the way down then you are reducing the average purchase price of your portfolio and you will reap the returns when the stock market finally and inevitably recovers.

I would only be selling at this point if I had no job/ or a job at risk, and insufficient cash reserves to last at least a year. Otherwise I would think it better to sit back and wait, live off your salary or cash reserves, and continue buying into the market if you can.

Keep your eyes firmly focused on the long term and not the short term noise.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2659 on: March 21, 2020, 03:37:18 AM »
Yikes, plenty of great lessons over on Bogleheads of folks who sold out near the bottom and missed a huge portion of the recovery. Hopefully you maintained enough of equity exposure to at least somewhat benefit from the up.

This is a great time to write out an ISP to prevent something like this from happening again.

I learned a few years ago I don't have the stomach for more than 50% equities, and reduced my exposure to ~40% over the past 6 months prior to markets hitting recent highs. Now that % is closer to 25%. No way we have bottomed yet though.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hell-coming-mathematical-proof-185019616.html

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2660 on: March 21, 2020, 03:47:04 AM »
I am feeling pretty bummed about my mounting losses. I have been second guessing myself whether I should have had less in stocks, but I keep coming to the same conclusion that I would do nothing different if I had my time again and that my investments were and are appropriate. Itís just a bit of bad luck that this virus hit just before I got to FIRE. On the other hand itís also good luck that I hadnít resigned yet and I can hold onto my job until the uncertainty is behind us. I will keep buying in the hope and belief that there will be a recovery in the next year or 3.

My situation is similar. My plan was to retire in September after completing a year at the startup where I'm working. But the company has funding for another year (with the possibility of raising more cash) and the work is interesting. So my current approach is to just keep at it until something happens to get me to stop. No harm in stashing some more cash.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2661 on: March 21, 2020, 05:31:59 AM »
I would not care to work 12 hour shifts.

I may have to work some in a few weeks if they don't shut our jobs down.

Years of income taken from me due to this current chaos.  It would take years of 12 hour shifts to get it back.

But,......Spring will still be here.

Currently 60 hours into 12 hour nights this week.  24 hours of shift left.  Hopefully off Monday and Tuesday.  Best thing is I've been to busy to visit a store and have skipped the mania.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2662 on: March 21, 2020, 09:08:37 AM »
I've been investing in gasoline for our boats.  I wish I'd invested in a few 55 gallon drums to store it in.  :)


Can't believe gas is $1.79 & diesel is $2.17 today. 




I noticed that the Carnival cruise lines stocks gained 20% yesterday.  I bet they filled up their fleet with cheap fuel too! 

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2663 on: March 21, 2020, 11:15:58 AM »
More unwanted ruminations:

When this is all said and done, will there not be a pent up demand for everything from toilet paper to cars that will jump start the economy again?  Will the economy actually recover in a better position?  Weak companies will die, but the strong shall survive.

Maybe the time off will provide a time for people to think.  A lot of people are constantly on the go and have no time to think.  A little downtime may actually enable people to come up with innovative ideas.  When the quarantine period is finally over, these ideas will be implemented.  Maybe, we'll have some solutions to global warming.

Since this period is putting people outside their comfort zone, there will be some thinking "out of the box"  This could certainly lead to some interesting developments / improvements.  Although they are short term thinkers, I'll bet our political leaders and CEOs will not want another pandemic.  The country and maybe even the world may end up with better health care support.  Necessity is the mother of invention.

A new Spring is now upon us.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2664 on: March 21, 2020, 01:51:44 PM »
More unwanted ruminations:

When this is all said and done, will there not be a pent up demand for everything from toilet paper to cars that will jump start the economy again?  Will the economy actually recover in a better position?  Weak companies will die, but the strong shall survive.

Maybe the time off will provide a time for people to think.  A lot of people are constantly on the go and have no time to think.  A little downtime may actually enable people to come up with innovative ideas.  When the quarantine period is finally over, these ideas will be implemented.  Maybe, we'll have some solutions to global warming.

Since this period is putting people outside their comfort zone, there will be some thinking "out of the box"  This could certainly lead to some interesting developments / improvements.  Although they are short term thinkers, I'll bet our political leaders and CEOs will not want another pandemic.  The country and maybe even the world may end up with better health care support.  Necessity is the mother of invention.

A new Spring is now upon us.

There will certainly be change.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2665 on: March 21, 2020, 02:02:06 PM »
Bateaux update:

Still in the 2M liquid club.  About 60K left till my go to work if retired trigger hits.  Luckily still working.   It's obvious now that in a black swan event employment could be rather difficult to find.  My OMY may be extended.  My FIRE trigger was 2.5M.  Came within 75K of that.  Seeing what shakes out of this crisis will define future targets.   Happily we only have to deal with the virus.  My entire household is still going to work.

mjr

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2666 on: March 21, 2020, 02:25:11 PM »
When I lament how rich I'd feel if I'd sold out out of everything in January, when reality kicks in again I recall how much capital gains tax I'd have paid and now I'd be all in cash, earnng nothing, agonising over when to get back in.

Much better to know that the only realistic course of action was to do nothing and watch it all come back over the next months/years.  Although I still agonise a bit as to whether and when to deploy the significant cash reserve I kept aside for just such an event.


DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2667 on: March 21, 2020, 02:45:03 PM »
On a different note, I just watched the episode on Netflix's "Dirty Money", titled Guardian Inc.

It's about how court systems attempt to declare elderly, but competent individuals, incapacitated. In being declared incapacitated a legal guardian is appointed, and the guardian proceeds to pillage the estate of the elderly person, now called the "ward" of the state.
This seems to happen to elderly people in their late 70's to early 80's. 
Just shocking and disturbing.

SwordGuy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2668 on: March 21, 2020, 03:00:11 PM »
On a different note, I just watched the episode on Netflix's "Dirty Money", titled Guardian Inc.

It's about how court systems attempt to declare elderly, but competent individuals, incapacitated. In being declared incapacitated a legal guardian is appointed, and the guardian proceeds to pillage the estate of the elderly person, now called the "ward" of the state.
This seems to happen to elderly people in their late 70's to early 80's. 
Just shocking and disturbing.

Raise good kids.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2669 on: March 21, 2020, 03:43:53 PM »
Checking in here after a while away. Iím not spending as much time online now as when I was still working.

This is certainly a remarkable downturn, and so sudden, but this is exactly why we write ISPs and preach the importance of buy-and-hold. Iím surprised also at the people here who are panicking and selling. Hasnít history shown again and again that the right move is to stay the course, no matter how white-knuckle the ride is?

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2670 on: March 21, 2020, 03:46:59 PM »
Put it this way: if that isn't the right strategy, we have bigger things to worry about than the date of our retirement...

But are people really selling? I must be on the wrong (right?!?!) threads!

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2671 on: March 21, 2020, 06:07:48 PM »
Put it this way: if that isn't the right strategy, we have bigger things to worry about than the date of our retirement...

But are people really selling? I must be on the wrong (right?!?!) threads!
I sold a bunch early February.  Pretty much a permanent position thing unless bargains can't be passed up.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2672 on: March 21, 2020, 07:19:04 PM »
We are selling bonds and buying stocks as part of rebalancing

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2673 on: March 21, 2020, 10:28:32 PM »
We are selling bonds and buying stocks as part of rebalancing
Bonds are going to start to suck once interest rates climb.  So either cash or cheap stocks that will survive and grow.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2674 on: March 22, 2020, 01:41:14 AM »
We are selling bonds and buying stocks as part of rebalancing
Bonds are going to start to suck once interest rates climb.  So either cash or cheap stocks that will survive and grow.

Global economies are actually in quite a mess in terms of this.  I can't imagine anyone will be raising their benchmark rates anytime soon. 

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2675 on: March 22, 2020, 04:35:47 AM »

Global economies are actually in quite a mess in terms of this.  I can't imagine anyone will be raising their benchmark rates anytime soon.

I second this. I don't see governments raising interest rates for a long time.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2676 on: March 22, 2020, 09:54:17 AM »
Low gas prices, over 2 million saved (as of last week), Spring is here, we feel healthy and I've got a job.

Global pandemic, overdue recession on the way, country deep in debt, sick people with no health care

It is the best of times, it is the worst of times.

SSDD

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2677 on: March 22, 2020, 01:18:30 PM »
I was feeling fine until last week when my bond funds started to take a hit.

Its weird I mean we in this group (OK I'm NOT in this group anymore, but not by much) have vast financial resources compared with the average person.

Not sure why this worried me so much, we have 2.5 years of cash with regular spend and more like 6 years if we tighten our belts (can't travel anywhere after all). Plus access to a pension that would replace our rent if it needed to.

Not as mentally tough as I thought I was perhaps?

Roland of Gilead

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2678 on: March 22, 2020, 02:11:01 PM »
Should retitle this Race from $4M to $2M

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2679 on: March 22, 2020, 02:19:56 PM »
I was feeling fine until last week when my bond funds started to take a hit.

Its weird I mean we in this group (OK I'm NOT in this group anymore, but not by much) have vast financial resources compared with the average person.

Not sure why this worried me so much, we have 2.5 years of cash with regular spend and more like 6 years if we tighten our belts (can't travel anywhere after all). Plus access to a pension that would replace our rent if it needed to.

Not as mentally tough as I thought I was perhaps?

This isn't one we've planned for.  It's ok to be worried.   Like you stated, we are all in a much better position to ride this out.  Mustacian habits will help even more.  Cut spending to absolute necessities.   Here in Louisiana we just received shut down orders for all nonessential business.   Basically stay in your homes except when absolutely necessary.   We're all financial preppers and probably a bit on the general prepper side as well.  I've ridden out many hurricanes and floods.  I've went weeks without electricity in a flooded out home.   Then rebuilt the flooded hime with my own hands.  For those of us here, we only have to survive the virus.  We will have more money than at least 9 out of 10 people.  Stay healthy and safe.

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2680 on: March 22, 2020, 03:44:39 PM »
Should retitle this Race from $4M to $2M

Heh - I just entered this group from the upper limit :-). But we do have some restricted stock that will be vesting shortly so we may possibly get back above.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2681 on: March 22, 2020, 03:46:39 PM »

- SNIP -

This isn't one we've planned for.  It's ok to be worried.   Like you stated, we are all in a much better position to ride this out.  Mustacian habits will help even more.  Cut spending to absolute necessities.   Here in Louisiana we just received shut down orders for all nonessential business.   Basically stay in your homes except when absolutely necessary.   We're all financial preppers and probably a bit on the general prepper side as well.  I've ridden out many hurricanes and floods.  I've went weeks without electricity in a flooded out home.   Then rebuilt the flooded hime with my own hands.  For those of us here, we only have to survive the virus.  We will have more money than at least 9 out of 10 people.  Stay healthy and safe.

I think the thing is that some of us are right at the edge (or were) when we were going to hang it up.  If this had happened 5 years ago, it would have been different.  The money was being saved and there were no immediate plans to touch it.  Now, a month before I was going to hang it up,............Aaargh!

It is proof that Sh*t happens.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2682 on: March 22, 2020, 04:23:59 PM »
I think the sentiment to just stay the course and do the things history in the past has shown is really the right one, the only thing to do. In our '"Bracket" were all in if things go that bad were still going to be better off then most. But being realistic this will turn and will come back its just a question of how long will it take. Now is not the time to sell or panic as so many of the terms being used now and feelings were feelings are the same sentiments in the past during crashes. Stay the course!

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2683 on: March 22, 2020, 06:00:54 PM »
I think the sentiment to just stay the course and do the things history in the past has shown is really the right one, the only thing to do. In our '"Bracket" were all in if things go that bad were still going to be better off then most. But being realistic this will turn and will come back its just a question of how long will it take. Now is not the time to sell or panic as so many of the terms being used now and feelings were feelings are the same sentiments in the past during crashes. Stay the course!

The other thing is to cut back spending of course. Naturally as there is very little discretionary stuff to spend on this will be quite easy to achieve.

If I had just retired and HAD to spend 4% of my stash I would be feeling very uncomfortable right now.

Taran Wanderer

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2684 on: March 22, 2020, 06:10:20 PM »
Just checked our balances.  We're still in the club by $1,000!  Until tomorrow, anyway.

To think that a month ago I was thinking of FIREing right about now.  Now the stock sales are on.  It looks like I will be working throughout this and will be taking advantage of the deals out there.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2685 on: March 22, 2020, 06:18:33 PM »
I think the sentiment to just stay the course and do the things history in the past has shown is really the right one, the only thing to do. In our '"Bracket" were all in if things go that bad were still going to be better off then most. But being realistic this will turn and will come back its just a question of how long will it take. Now is not the time to sell or panic as so many of the terms being used now and feelings were feelings are the same sentiments in the past during crashes. Stay the course!

The other thing is to cut back spending of course. Naturally as there is very little discretionary stuff to spend on this will be quite easy to achieve.

If I had just retired and HAD to spend 4% of my stash I would be feeling very uncomfortable right now.

4% of what you have now is a more realistic SWR than when we were at the all time high.  What is interesting about the 4% rule is that it states you will have 95% success irrespective of the starting point.  For ease of numbers, at S&P 3400 say you had 3.4M and lived on 136k inflation adjusted for 30 years or now you have 2.3M and live on 92k - both people have 95% chance of success!  Guess I'd feel pretty uncomfortable spending 136k right now... but I'd be OK with 92k. 

2Birds1Stone

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2686 on: March 22, 2020, 09:04:48 PM »
I think the sentiment to just stay the course and do the things history in the past has shown is really the right one, the only thing to do. In our '"Bracket" were all in if things go that bad were still going to be better off then most. But being realistic this will turn and will come back its just a question of how long will it take. Now is not the time to sell or panic as so many of the terms being used now and feelings were feelings are the same sentiments in the past during crashes. Stay the course!

The other thing is to cut back spending of course. Naturally as there is very little discretionary stuff to spend on this will be quite easy to achieve.

If I had just retired and HAD to spend 4% of my stash I would be feeling very uncomfortable right now.

4% of what you have now is a more realistic SWR than when we were at the all time high.  What is interesting about the 4% rule is that it states you will have 95% success irrespective of the starting point.  For ease of numbers, at S&P 3400 say you had 3.4M and lived on 136k inflation adjusted for 30 years or now you have 2.3M and live on 92k - both people have 95% chance of success!  Guess I'd feel pretty uncomfortable spending 136k right now... but I'd be OK with 92k.

ERN disproves this in his SWR series pretty well.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2687 on: March 23, 2020, 12:01:14 PM »
I think the sentiment to just stay the course and do the things history in the past has shown is really the right one, the only thing to do. In our '"Bracket" were all in if things go that bad were still going to be better off then most. But being realistic this will turn and will come back its just a question of how long will it take. Now is not the time to sell or panic as so many of the terms being used now and feelings were feelings are the same sentiments in the past during crashes. Stay the course!



This is why the 4% rule should not be called a rule but a guide. Something works until it doesnt and that is not to say that it wont this time yet but i know my percentage of financial "Survival" has dropped over 5%. Having said that In my calculations are 20% higher than what I actually need. But to your point I have seen a huge savings doing a lot less being home and its really not bugging me or do I feel like I have given anything up. 2 weeks I will be Fire'd 5 years so I knew at some point in my retirement this was going to happen but of course it feels worse going through it at the time BUT i have no choice nor do I want to change the strategy I Fire'd on. Hopefully the Senate and House can get there heads out of there ass and at least get this stimulus out so we can breathe a bit. Its surely is not helping the uncertainty in the markets.

The other thing is to cut back spending of course. Naturally as there is very little discretionary stuff to spend on this will be quite easy to achieve.

If I had just retired and HAD to spend 4% of my stash I would be feeling very uncomfortable right now.

4% of what you have now is a more realistic SWR than when we were at the all time high.  What is interesting about the 4% rule is that it states you will have 95% success irrespective of the starting point.  For ease of numbers, at S&P 3400 say you had 3.4M and lived on 136k inflation adjusted for 30 years or now you have 2.3M and live on 92k - both people have 95% chance of success!  Guess I'd feel pretty uncomfortable spending 136k right now... but I'd be OK with 92k.

ERN disproves this in his SWR series pretty well.
I think the sentiment to just stay the course and do the things history in the past has shown is really the right one, the only thing to do. In our '"Bracket" were all in if things go that bad were still going to be better off then most. But being realistic this will turn and will come back its just a question of how long will it take. Now is not the time to sell or panic as so many of the terms being used now and feelings were feelings are the same sentiments in the past during crashes. Stay the course!

The other thing is to cut back spending of course. Naturally as there is very little discretionary stuff to spend on this will be quite easy to achieve.

If I had just retired and HAD to spend 4% of my stash I would be feeling very uncomfortable right now.

4% of what you have now is a more realistic SWR than when we were at the all time high.  What is interesting about the 4% rule is that it states you will have 95% success irrespective of the starting point.  For ease of numbers, at S&P 3400 say you had 3.4M and lived on 136k inflation adjusted for 30 years or now you have 2.3M and live on 92k - both people have 95% chance of success!  Guess I'd feel pretty uncomfortable spending 136k right now... but I'd be OK with 92k.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2688 on: March 23, 2020, 12:22:05 PM »
@soccerluvof4, not sure what happened to your post bud.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2689 on: March 23, 2020, 12:34:45 PM »
@soccerluvof4, not sure what happened to your post bud.

Wow....bizarre but basically its in the middle of the mess what i Said-(copy)

This is why the 4% rule should not be called a rule but a guide. Something works until it doesnt and that is not to say that it wont this time yet but i know my percentage of financial "Survival" has dropped over 5%. Having said that In my calculations , I calculated 20% higher than what I actually need. But to your point I have seen a huge savings doing a lot less being home and its really not bugging me or do I feel like I have given anything up. 2 weeks I will be Fire'd 5 years so I knew at some point in my retirement this was going to happen but of course it feels worse going through it at the time. BUT i have no choice nor do I want to change the strategy I Fire'd on. Hopefully the Senate and House can get there heads out of there ass and at least get this stimulus out so we can breathe a bit. Its surely is not helping the uncertainty in the markets.


 

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2690 on: March 23, 2020, 02:19:10 PM »
My fear is that we saw from the Depression that the wrong response can make this kind of a thing longer, deeper, and more painful than it has to be. Making the right moves in government really matter right now, and we have an administration full of acting directors with no relevant experience and a history of getting into messes if their own making.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2691 on: March 23, 2020, 03:05:23 PM »
Right now the Government just needs to put there political agendas aside and do the things the can agree on to show the people that we can have faith in them.

Is the new good day when the S&P is down only 67pts? Disappointment again because people thought for sure the Government was going to get the Stimulus package out today.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2692 on: March 23, 2020, 03:11:48 PM »
Right now the Government just needs to put there political agendas aside and do the things the can agree on to show the people that we can have faith in them.

Is the new good day when the S&P is down only 67pts? Disappointment again because people thought for sure the Government was going to get the Stimulus package out today.

The Republicans think they can manipulate the media to make the Dems look bad -- while they hand gobs of our money to the very rich and crumbs to everyone else.   They'll probably get away with it too.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2693 on: March 23, 2020, 04:42:15 PM »
Right now the Government just needs to put there political agendas aside and do the things the can agree on to show the people that we can have faith in them.

Is the new good day when the S&P is down only 67pts? Disappointment again because people thought for sure the Government was going to get the Stimulus package out today.

The Republicans think they can manipulate the media to make the Dems look bad -- while they hand gobs of our money to the very rich and crumbs to everyone else.   They'll probably get away with it too.

I think that's your basic answer in today's world soccerofluv, which is why I'm very concerned about anything getting done.  People (in the US today at least) don't put aside politics.  And everyone knows everything for certain... I mean for certain.... everyone knows for sure abortion is irrefutably right to allow/wrong to deny....everyone knows for sure capitalism/socialism is right/wrong, and I'm talking about folks who haven't spent decades studying the matters.   Half the country knows for certain everything every republicans propose is wrong, the other half knows everything they propose is right, and vice versa. There are no grey areas, no middle grounds, no areas of confusion.  Citizens have fallen into the same strict division the parties took years ago when there is no longer discussion/consideration of possibilities because everything is known absolutely.... to the point there is no reason to discuss anything, just grandstand.  Its even funny at points when you see someone (maybe accidentally?) proposing what generally goes against their party line.  A good example was the recent US tariffs.  Not that long ago tariffs were considered a pretty complicated thing with hard to calculate consequences which would have been discussed forever. If a democratic president had put Tariffs in place then it would have the normal every Dem saying it was the right thing to do and every Repub saying it was going to destroy the economy for certain.  But A Repub president doing it flipped it, which was pretty hilarious results-wise, as Republicans and Dems both stayed remarkably silent on the move, as it brought about what they considered a contradiction (Tariffs being good but a Repub action being by definition bad, and vice versa).

No one is gonna discuss the right thing to do.  Whatever the current administration does is by definition completely right/completely wrong because the decision was made by the administration.

So your statement "the Government just needs to put there political agendas aside and do the things they can agree on" is by definition no longer a possibility that I can imagine.  They will not put politics aside and not only will the politicians but the public will disagree with whatever the other party proposes/does precisely because thats what they propose/do.

i haven't given up on the possibility of this in the future someday.  We still see local politics work somewhat where people judge the person and actions apart from the party.  And at a local level people can usually see the difficulties in which choice is best instead of just picking a talking point. 

But on a State/Federal level we are at least many decades away from that.  It definitely seems to be getting worse every decade.  In the 60s I think most of the country mourned Kennedy being shot.  Bush's initial reactions at least to 9-11 seemed to be somewhat praised by both sides for some short period.  But its obviously hit the tipping point now.  Today we would definitely have half mourn, half rejoice if a president was taken down in the streets (and probably a significant number of people praising the bold act of taking him down) be it Obama or Trump.  Its really scary to me we've gotten to this point but I guess I'm getting used to it.  I just hope some day I'll know everything like everyone else seems to so I don;t have to think about it anymore.

« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 05:18:58 PM by Much Fishing to Do »

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2694 on: March 23, 2020, 05:06:36 PM »
You would kind of think basic decency would trump politics in these times.

With the collapsed economy there will be people who are both hungry and sick.  History does repeat itself.

Seems like the focus should be on minimizing that issue.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2695 on: March 23, 2020, 05:53:38 PM »
You would kind of think basic decency would trump politics in these times.

Sorry, I just don't see it happening.  My prediction is 99% of republicans think the administration's next move is a good one and 99% of democrats think its horrible...no matter what that move is.... Of course it is, their determination on whether its a good move or not is completely based upon who makes the move. 

This is why I think the best thing that would happen for this country is for the next president to push for something so far against their party it may make people actually think again (the most obvious examples I can come up with is for the next Dem president to push for a constitutional amendment banning abortion or breaking medicare, or the next Republican president push for a constitutional amendment to solidify the right to abortion or the right to medicare for all.   I feel like people might start to think again?  Nah...I'm a fucking moron if I really think that'll happen
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 05:57:08 PM by Much Fishing to Do »

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2696 on: March 23, 2020, 05:58:07 PM »
You would kind of think basic decency would trump politics in these times.
There is little decency in Trump politics.   That's why much of the country fights him so hard.

With the collapsed economy there will be people who are both hungry and sick.  History does repeat itself.
And the Republicans usually block programs to help people who are hungry or sick.  Again, why we fight.

Seems like the focus should be on minimizing that issue.
The GOP bill will but hundreds of billions in CEO hands with no useful restrictions on it, so they'll just keep it for themselves.  Workers won't see more than 10% of that money, if that.   It's what happened last time and they're salivating at all the free money they'll be getting.   As a perfect example of GOP priorities, Sen Burr (R-NC) warned his rich buddies and donors how bad this epidemic would get but he didn't bother to warn the rest of the public in such strong terms.

The GOP bill wants to make sure that poor people get the barest possible amount of money, the middle class get a bit more -- just enough to get them to clamor for it -- and they want to funnel hundreds of billions to the already wealthy.

The Democrats want to flip that script and give more to the people and much less to the wealthy.


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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2697 on: March 23, 2020, 06:00:38 PM »
All we need to do is send everyone a malaria tablet and get everyone back to work.

Simple enough..:)

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2698 on: March 23, 2020, 06:08:08 PM »
You would kind of think basic decency would trump politics in these times.
There is little decency in Trump politics.   That's why much of the country fights him so hard.

With the collapsed economy there will be people who are both hungry and sick.  History does repeat itself.
And the Republicans usually block programs to help people who are hungry or sick.  Again, why we fight.

Seems like the focus should be on minimizing that issue.
The GOP bill will but hundreds of billions in CEO hands with no useful restrictions on it, so they'll just keep it for themselves.  Workers won't see more than 10% of that money, if that.   It's what happened last time and they're salivating at all the free money they'll be getting.   As a perfect example of GOP priorities, Sen Burr (R-NC) warned his rich buddies and donors how bad this epidemic would get but he didn't bother to warn the rest of the public in such strong terms.

The GOP bill wants to make sure that poor people get the barest possible amount of money, the middle class get a bit more -- just enough to get them to clamor for it -- and they want to funnel hundreds of billions to the already wealthy.

The Democrats want to flip that script and give more to the people and much less to the wealthy.

My point again.  Every Republican is Hitler and every Democrat is Stalin. (i.e. why in the world do you think we will come together for a solution?, or acknowledge if we have one?)

Next a republican will post.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2020, 06:12:16 PM by Much Fishing to Do »

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2699 on: March 23, 2020, 06:08:53 PM »
All we need to do is send everyone a malaria tablet and get everyone back to work.

Simple enough..:)

OK, now this is someone just 'thinking' aloud.  Nice work.