Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!

[pecunia]

Crap, went from 103% FI to 96%...knew I should have hurried up and FIREd last week ;-)

I guess you need a safety margin before you FIRE.  I think since this group starts at 2 million, the safety margin is there.  We shouldn't have a market dip much over 20 percent.

[Much Fishing to Do]

OK, even I might buy in a bit tomorrow (obviously : cue huge crash thereafter).

Ha, yeah, I didn't do everyone a favor when I bought hard in 2008 when everything was down about 15% ... I definitely destined us for the 55% drop at that point ...

[Bateaux]

OK, even I might buy in a bit tomorrow (obviously : cue huge crash thereafter).

I'm running very cash heavy.  I just made a major move to cash second week of February.  We really haven't dropped that far yet.  Nobody knows how low we may drop.  I don't believe the virus will be that bad.  However, the hit to trade and consumer spending could be huge.  Thinking I'll keep my powder dry for now.

[LightTripper]

OK, even I might buy in a bit tomorrow (obviously : cue huge crash thereafter).

I'm running very cash heavy.  I just made a major move to cash second week of February.  We really haven't dropped that far yet.  Nobody knows how low we may drop.  I don't believe the virus will be that bad.  However, the hit to trade and consumer spending could be huge.  Thinking I'll keep my powder dry for now.

I'm definitely now t planning to go all in. I think the market was likely overvalued so there's a decent chance we have further to go. But just as a Corona effect where we are seems reasonable, so I'll dip a toe...

[LightTripper]

Not, not now t!!

[soccerluvof4]

If futures maintain as what is the implied open that will put us over 15% so will dip toes today though expecting at least Monday to be down unless we get some miracle news over the weekend.

[Exflyboy]

Well 15% has happened!

[2Birds1Stone]

Wait till next quarter earnings come out, and global GDP numbers. We still have a loonngg way to go. Not fun trying to catch a falling knife.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

Wait till next quarter earnings come out, and global GDP numbers. We still have a loonngg way to go. Not fun trying to catch a falling knife.

And yet there are still folks on the forum cheering for an even better 'sale' and complaining that it might rebound too fast for them to get their next paycheck in! 

[LightTripper]

Well I just checked my pension and found that I am even more in cash than I thought (my provider caps its fees on shares and ETFs and *separately* on funds - and like an idiot I had bought some funds).  Anyway, had got as far as selling out of the funds, but not as far as rebuying the shares. 

Always nice when your own crapness hands you a bit of a win isn't it?  (Or a bit less of a loss, anyway!)

Anyway, work was busy today so missed the market, but assuming no rebound I'll shift about half of it back into the market on Monday and then see what happens.

[BeanCounter]

With my RE date of May 15th, this market thing is painful.
I just keep reminding myself that DH is still working. I can find some part time work next fall or during the tax season if I really needed to. We are flexible which means it's just paper losses.
But wow.
Ten years ago I was happy that the market dipped. As long as we had jobs we were adding money and it didn't matter what we lost. We didn't even look.
I just keep saying- still young, still healthy, still flexible. Still going to leave this full time rat race and get my life back.

[Bateaux]

With my RE date of May 15th, this market thing is painful.
I just keep reminding myself that DH is still working. I can find some part time work next fall or during the tax season if I really needed to. We are flexible which means it's just paper losses.
But wow.
Ten years ago I was happy that the market dipped. As long as we had jobs we were adding money and it didn't matter what we lost. We didn't even look.
I just keep saying- still young, still healthy, still flexible. Still going to leave this full time rat race and get my life back.

We haven't even lost a year's worth of gains is how I look at it.  I'd planned to FIRE in 2018, 2019, 2020 and now not till early 2021.  We're still way above portfolio levels I'd once figured would be enough.   I'm resolute now to wait out the recession.   That will be the best cure for market.  Work a little longer and wait it out.

[Exflyboy]

With my RE date of May 15th, this market thing is painful.
I just keep reminding myself that DH is still working. I can find some part time work next fall or during the tax season if I really needed to. We are flexible which means it's just paper losses.
But wow.
Ten years ago I was happy that the market dipped. As long as we had jobs we were adding money and it didn't matter what we lost. We didn't even look.
I just keep saying- still young, still healthy, still flexible. Still going to leave this full time rat race and get my life back.

We haven't even lost a year's worth of gains is how I look at it.  I'd planned to FIRE in 2018, 2019, 2020 and now not till early 2021.  We're still way above portfolio levels I'd once figured would be enough.   I'm resolute now to wait out the recession.   That will be the best cure for market.  Work a little longer and wait it out.

Or NOT work longer and still wait it out..:) I mean, honestly thats all you;re going to do whether working or not.

Assuming you have enough of the savings cushion, or the flexibility to reduce spending then its all good.

[BeanCounter]

With my RE date of May 15th, this market thing is painful.
I just keep reminding myself that DH is still working. I can find some part time work next fall or during the tax season if I really needed to. We are flexible which means it's just paper losses.
But wow.
Ten years ago I was happy that the market dipped. As long as we had jobs we were adding money and it didn't matter what we lost. We didn't even look.
I just keep saying- still young, still healthy, still flexible. Still going to leave this full time rat race and get my life back.

We haven't even lost a year's worth of gains is how I look at it.  I'd planned to FIRE in 2018, 2019, 2020 and now not till early 2021.  We're still way above portfolio levels I'd once figured would be enough.   I'm resolute now to wait out the recession.   That will be the best cure for market.  Work a little longer and wait it out.

Or NOT work longer and still wait it out..:) I mean, honestly thats all you;re going to do whether working or not.

Assuming you have enough of the savings cushion, or the flexibility to reduce spending then its all good.

Exflyboy, you will probably never know how much your wisdom has helped me. I couldn't agree more.

Bateaux, there is always a reason to OMY. And before you know it you've OMY'd until the end.
And chances are you didn't need as much as you thought anyway.
I'm jumping. Wanna hold my hand and come too?

[Bateaux]

With my RE date of May 15th, this market thing is painful.
I just keep reminding myself that DH is still working. I can find some part time work next fall or during the tax season if I really needed to. We are flexible which means it's just paper losses.
But wow.
Ten years ago I was happy that the market dipped. As long as we had jobs we were adding money and it didn't matter what we lost. We didn't even look.
I just keep saying- still young, still healthy, still flexible. Still going to leave this full time rat race and get my life back.

We haven't even lost a year's worth of gains is how I look at it.  I'd planned to FIRE in 2018, 2019, 2020 and now not till early 2021.  We're still way above portfolio levels I'd once figured would be enough.   I'm resolute now to wait out the recession.   That will be the best cure for market.  Work a little longer and wait it out.

Or NOT work longer and still wait it out..:) I mean, honestly thats all you;re going to do whether working or not.

Assuming you have enough of the savings cushion, or the flexibility to reduce spending then its all good.

Exflyboy, you will probably never know how much your wisdom has helped me. I couldn't agree more.

Bateaux, there is always a reason to OMY. And before you know it you've OMY'd until the end.
And chances are you didn't need as much as you thought anyway.
I'm jumping. Wanna hold my hand and come too?

You guys have no idea the value I place on your shared thoughts.   Exflyboy is expressing wisdom from his inverted 5,000 foot view.  He's seen the ups and downs, knows we'll eventually raise our ceiling to fly higher.  Beancounter I think you'll do great.  Yes, I'm almost certainly OMY.  There are some matters to work out that having a salary doesn't necessarily fix.  However, having to budget could possibly add more stress right now than working till 2021.  I wish you so much luck on your leap.  Don't leave us when you do.  Keep us posted on how wonderful it is.

[Exflyboy]

Well I dipped my toe today*.. of course the market spiked up quite a bit at the close.. So next week it will tank naturally..:)

*Toe dipping was a rebalance back to 75/25.. a 3% move from bonds to stocks

[DavidAnnArbor]

I think the market will drop more because of the effects of the epidemic on the disruption to the supply chain and the consumer confidence loss.
This could end up causing a recession.

Over time however, as the virus plays out across the globe, things will gradually return to normalcy. 
But the virus probably will wreck havoc for a few months.

With the way the US has cut our CDC and other global pandemic programs we're definitely behind the curve of preparedness.
Also, the Trump administration will try to prevent any info about the epidemic from getting out.
The result is we will have an epidemic in this country. It will be comparable to the seasonal flu, maybe somewhat more contagious.
This virus however is probably an order of magnitude more deadly than the seasonal flu.

[SwordGuy]

With the way the US has cut our CDC and other global pandemic programs we're definitely behind the curve of preparedness.
Also, the Trump administration will try to prevent any info about the epidemic from getting out.
The result is we will have an epidemic in this country. It will be comparable to the seasonal flu, maybe somewhat more contagious.
This virus however is probably an order of magnitude more deadly than the seasonal flu.

Apparently that's Plan B for cutting the social security budget.   

[JoJoP]

I meant to buy today, but I guess I will on Monday.  Just a little here and a little there.    I'm still nibbling on tiny buys with my sparse spare cash-olla.  You folks are the wise ones and I'm a novice... should I buy VOO or a Foreign stock ETF?   Foreign is down... 

[DavidAnnArbor]

I meant to buy today, but I guess I will on Monday.  Just a little here and a little there.    I'm still nibbling on tiny buys with my sparse spare cash-olla.  You folks are the wise ones and I'm a novice... should I buy VOO or a Foreign stock ETF?   Foreign is down...

Buy 80% US, 20% international.

[jdfergason]

Buy 80% US, 20% international.

In 2018 about 43% of the S&P 500's sales were from foreign countries. Just buying VOO gets you a fair amount of foreign exposure.

https://us.spindices.com/indexology/djia-and-sp-500/sp-500-global-sales

[RWD]

Buy 80% US, 20% international.

In 2018 about 43% of the S&P 500's sales were from foreign countries. Just buying VOO gets you a fair amount of foreign exposure.

https://us.spindices.com/indexology/djia-and-sp-500/sp-500-global-sales

The international market is only moderately correlated (0.70) with the domestic market. Sometimes it outperforms significantly, sometimes underperforms significantly.
https://www.callan.com/periodic-table/

[pecunia]

History repeats itself, but not exactly the same:

https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-i/1918-flu-pandemic

There could be new areas to invest.  How much could a pharmaceutical company charge (overcharge) for a vaccine to this disease?  They could smile as they took the money and offer how glad they were to help with this outbreak.

[2sk22]

I meant to buy today, but I guess I will on Monday.  Just a little here and a little there.    I'm still nibbling on tiny buys with my sparse spare cash-olla.  You folks are the wise ones and I'm a novice... should I buy VOO or a Foreign stock ETF?   Foreign is down...

I am also nibbling a little. For this past week, I have buying one share of DIA (The Dow 30 ETF) every day at about noon - thank goodness for zero cost trading :-)

[JoJoP]

I meant to buy today, but I guess I will on Monday.  Just a little here and a little there.    I'm still nibbling on tiny buys with my sparse spare cash-olla.  You folks are the wise ones and I'm a novice... should I buy VOO or a Foreign stock ETF?   Foreign is down...

I am also nibbling a little. For this past week, I have buying one share of DIA (The Dow 30 ETF) every day at about noon - thank goodness for zero cost trading :-)

DIA-- it's up on after hours trading.

[Dancin'Dog]

I meant to buy today, but I guess I will on Monday.  Just a little here and a little there.    I'm still nibbling on tiny buys with my sparse spare cash-olla.  You folks are the wise ones and I'm a novice... should I buy VOO or a Foreign stock ETF?   Foreign is down...

I am also nibbling a little. For this past week, I have buying one share of DIA (The Dow 30 ETF) every day at about noon - thank goodness for zero cost trading :-)

DIA-- it's up on after hours trading.

I noticed that a lot of things spiked up after hours too.  Interesting event.  Institutional buyers getting in before the Monday opening, or trying to create a fake-out? 

[Dancin'Dog]

Here's a heat map of the market showing quite a few gains.


https://www.finscreener.com/map/map

[Exflyboy]

I can't help but think with the first death in the US there will be downward pressure next week.

[DavidAnnArbor]

I can't help but think with the first death in the US there will be downward pressure next week.

yep

[secondcor521]

I can't help but think with the first death in the US there will be downward pressure next week.

First US death in Washington State reported today.

[2sk22]

I can't help but think with the first death in the US there will be downward pressure next week.

Indeed I fully expect some more downward pressure next week - but I can afford to spend a couple thousand on this little exercise in a practical exposition of Nyquist-Shannon sampling :-)

[itchyfeet]

Calculated my month end NW today. Not too bad.

Yes, I lost a couple of hundred K AUD last week, but in the first 7 weeks of the year (plus last year) I was getting returns that were unsustainable. easy come easy go.

Whilst my total stock market returns for the month of February were -$130K AUD my NW is still a little higher than what it was on 1 January, thanks to savings and property price growth.

Onwards and upwards.....

Hopefully we get a nice V, but I’m not too confident of that. I think many investors will want to see what happens in the coming month or 2 before throwing more money into stocks.

[Exflyboy]

OK I'm calling it..

I suspect we will get 25 to 30% down and in a year from now we will barely remember what the problem was..:)

[Taran Wanderer]

ExFlyBoy, I hope you’re right, but I think you’re wrong. Coronavirus isn’t going to be stopped. It’s either going to burn through the population quickly and be very disruptive, or it’s going to smolder through with less disruption but for longer. It might do both in different areas of the world. Either way, I don’t see the market bouncing back in a year. We'll all still be in mourning.

[pecunia]

You don't pay those big taxes on losses.  You can figure you've made it.  No taxes just like Jeff Bezos or Warren Buffet.  Congratulations!

[Exflyboy]

You don't pay those big taxes on losses.  You can figure you've made it.  No taxes just like Jeff Bezos or Warren Buffet.  Congratulations!

Losses.. what losses..:)

[itchyfeet]

Hmm ASX down another 2% today. Not the nicest start to March.

I am in the camp with those that think this wobble might take a year or 2 to put behind us.

By this time next year we will have a vaccine and it will be in mass production.

Before then, maybe 100 million in the world will have suffered Coronavirus with about 1 million dead.

A very small dent in the population, but a massive handbreak on growth.

[itchyfeet]

Hmm ASX down another 2% today. Not the nicest start to March.

I am in the camp with those that think this wobble might take a year or 2 to put behind us.

By this time next year we will have a vaccine and it will be in mass production.

Before then, maybe 100 million in the world will have suffered Coronavirus with about 1 million dead.

A very small dent in the population, but a massive handbreak on growth.

Ok, I am probably being overly pessimistic..... reading too much hype and propaganda. The number of new patients is slowing dramatically in China. I put it down to the fact I haven’t had my morning coffee yet. The world always looks better after I am filled with caffeine.

Fingers crossed...

[jdfergason]

I hate the way the media is playing this. The adjectives they are using to describe things are so sensational. The headline on Yahoo finance is "US stocks dive as coronavirus panic mounts." When I checked S&P 500 futures are down .69% ... since when did that become a "dive"?

Stocks are still priced above historic norms relative to their P/E ratios but I agree with Warren Buffett that stock prices have to be considered in the context of monetary policy and if you believe that 3% is going to be the yield on the 30-year bond over the long term then stocks look good.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/06/warren-buffett-says-stocks-are-ridiculously-cheap-if-interest-rates-stay-at-these-levels.html

[itchyfeet]

Hmm ASX down another 2% today. Not the nicest start to March.

I am in the camp with those that think this wobble might take a year or 2 to put behind us.

By this time next year we will have a vaccine and it will be in mass production.

Before then, maybe 100 million in the world will have suffered Coronavirus with about 1 million dead.

A very small dent in the population, but a massive handbreak on growth.

Ok, I am probably being overly pessimistic..... reading too much hype and propaganda. The number of new patients is slowing dramatically in China. I put it down to the fact I haven’t had my morning coffee yet. The world always looks better after I am filled with caffeine.

Fingers crossed...

.... and as I sip my morning coffee I see that Japan and China have opened the week in the green and Aussie stocks have recovered most of this mornings losses.

[SwordGuy]

Checked our net worth at the end of the month as I usually do and we're down about $85K since the start of the year.

It's nice that isn't an event of particular concern.   The only planned withdrawals we've got from our portfolio are the minimum RMDs for January of 2021 and 2022.  Maybe a few thousand more if it would pay off the mortgage then and there.

If we have something expensive break, we'll pull out what we need to, but other than that, we're ok.

Some folks laughed at us a bit because I over-engineered our finances to have multiple mitigations for bad events.   And that was ok, because I probably overdid it. :)

But I'm sleeping well even with the prospect of the market dropping by 50% and staying there for some years.

Once our old house sells and the new house mortgage is paid off our monthly expenses will drop by $4,200, or $50,400 a year.  That's a big deal and even fairly expensive things breaking could be cash-flowed at that time.   

I really like having 4 totally different sources and types of income during times when the market is dropping and might easily go much lower.

[itchyfeet]

I really like having 4 totally different sources and types of income during times when the market is dropping and might easily go much lower.

I agree completely.

I have a rental property and whilst the Net rent yield is probably only 3.25-3.5% I will hold onto it to provide a little diversification.

I also have a small govt pension coming to me from my 5 years as a public servant earlier in my career. It not substantial but it does provide some peace of mind as it would cover bare bones food and utilities

Then I have my Stocks which will cover travel, entertainment, new cars, home renovations, clothes, gifts etc etc. These costs can be minimized dramatically for a short period, even though that’s not the plan.

As a fourth stream of diversification I can rely on DW to do some casual teaching when required. She remains quite motivated to do a little teaching at this time. Her motivation will evolve with time no doubt. Maybe by then I’ll have something I don’t mind doing that pays a little. But this active income is not part of “the plan” and is just a contingency/ buffer.

[Exflyboy]

Yeah.. 13% drop and I start asking myself what could we survive financially.

Answer.. If the market dropped 75% we'd be fine...:)

Oh looks like my rebalance on Friday was timed perfectly (like that has never happened), for now anyway..

[pecunia]

You don't pay those big taxes on losses.  You can figure you've made it.  No taxes just like Jeff Bezos or Warren Buffet.  Congratulations!

Losses.. what losses..:)

You are right - The bounce is here.

[Bateaux]

You don't pay those big taxes on losses.  You can figure you've made it.  No taxes just like Jeff Bezos or Warren Buffet.  Congratulations!

Losses.. what losses..:)

You are right - The bounce is here.

Looks like the one day Biden Bounce is over and the Dow ie down over 700 points.  I'd recovered to within 80K of highs.  This volatile market will probably continue for a while.  Still working and still buying.

[2Birds1Stone]

At this rate my stock allocation will be insignificant in a couple of weeks....we will almost certainly test the December 2018 lows. Hopefully some technical support there.

This is only my second large drop as an investor, but the first one after FIREing (on a shoestring budget!).

It does look like this means I go back to work in a year to reduce SRR and obliterate my portfolio.

[tooqk4u22]

At this rate my stock allocation will be insignificant in a couple of weeks....we will almost certainly test the December 2018 lows. Hopefully some technical support there.

This is only my second large drop as an investor, but the first one after FIREing (on a shoestring budget!).

It does look like this means I go back to work in a year to reduce SRR and obliterate my portfolio.

SP500 is still up 6% for last 12 months and 16% since 12/31/19 - before dividends.   Those numbers aren't that bad.   Have a couple 2019 lows to test before the 2018 lows - Sep19 2855 (hit it last week but didn't break it) and then 2750 from may of last year.   Incidentally those levels would be close to 15% and 20% declines respectively, not crazy by any means, don't get me wrong I don't like it but its not crazy.   

Lows if 2018 would be close to a 30% drop from highs....back up the truck.   

Times to reallocate is all. 

[Bateaux]

At this rate my stock allocation will be insignificant in a couple of weeks....we will almost certainly test the December 2018 lows. Hopefully some technical support there.

This is only my second large drop as an investor, but the first one after FIREing (on a shoestring budget!).

It does look like this means I go back to work in a year to reduce SRR and obliterate my portfolio.

SP500 is still up 6% for last 12 months and 16% since 12/31/19 - before dividends.   Those numbers aren't that bad.   Have a couple 2019 lows to test before the 2018 lows - Sep19 2855 (hit it last week but didn't break it) and then 2750 from may of last year.   Incidentally those levels would be close to 15% and 20% declines respectively, not crazy by any means, don't get me wrong I don't like it but its not crazy.   

Lows if 2018 would be close to a 30% drop from highs....back up the truck.   

Times to reallocate is all.

I also think we'll test the lows of 2018 before it's over.  Global GDP could go negative for a while.

[EscapeVelocity2020]

This week is exactly why you don't want to have to watch your portfolio every day!   

With that said, I'm seeing comments about opportunistic buying and targeting sectors / individual stock 'bargains'.  Trying to outwit the market, especially right now, is going to compound the emotional drag of the ups and downs.  We will likely need a lot of stamina for this one, unless we get really lucky and warmer weather in April actually does stem the spread of the virus.  Much more likely is that we have more quarantines and business disruptions, coupled with economic bailouts...  ups and downs... 

[pecunia]

It's kind of nice.  Folks herein have predicted that the lows will go no lower than the dip in 2018.  I can handle that.