Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 518810 times)

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2250 on: January 21, 2020, 04:52:08 AM »
Sir:  I grew up in the Arctic Midwest where I had to walk 5 miles to school uphill each way in below zero weather through 4 ft snowdrifts.  And yes I was taught that this stock market thing is a big gamble when I was a kid.  There were still some 1930s people around and they had unkind things to say about it.

I see the money grow and grow but if it seems to good to be true,.......

jeroly

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2251 on: January 21, 2020, 05:03:00 AM »
You know everyone always use the 50% drop like the bottom of a crisis and I suppose that is based on some historical reasoning. And while I think of think of our net worth in the same way because lets face it you have to set some perimeters I cant help but to wonder with such a run up if realistically the drop couldn't be even a lot worse. Typically at some point money would come pouring in but has anyone else thought perhaps the same thing? I thought I heard too less people are investing in the stock market because they don't trust it and I want to say mostly millennial's. Not sure if that's true or not. Just curious what others have thought about that if at all because did people really think the market would be chasing Dow 30k if not more.

After the crash of Ď29, the market dropped about 89% before bottoming out about three years later.

Despite that, if you had maintained a 50/50 asset allocation, you would still have broken even after ten years.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2252 on: January 21, 2020, 12:12:16 PM »
You know everyone always use the 50% drop like the bottom of a crisis and I suppose that is based on some historical reasoning. And while I think of think of our net worth in the same way because lets face it you have to set some perimeters I cant help but to wonder with such a run up if realistically the drop couldn't be even a lot worse. Typically at some point money would come pouring in but has anyone else thought perhaps the same thing? I thought I heard too less people are investing in the stock market because they don't trust it and I want to say mostly millennial's. Not sure if that's true or not. Just curious what others have thought about that if at all because did people really think the market would be chasing Dow 30k if not more.

After the crash of Ď29, the market dropped about 89% before bottoming out about three years later.

Despite that, if you had maintained a 50/50 asset allocation, you would still have broken even after ten years.

 Actually I have heard that prices of goods rapidly declined such that your spending power didn't go down quite as much. I believe that Great Depression was a 7 year event taking that into account.

RWD

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2253 on: January 21, 2020, 12:49:54 PM »
You know everyone always use the 50% drop like the bottom of a crisis and I suppose that is based on some historical reasoning. And while I think of think of our net worth in the same way because lets face it you have to set some perimeters I cant help but to wonder with such a run up if realistically the drop couldn't be even a lot worse. Typically at some point money would come pouring in but has anyone else thought perhaps the same thing? I thought I heard too less people are investing in the stock market because they don't trust it and I want to say mostly millennial's. Not sure if that's true or not. Just curious what others have thought about that if at all because did people really think the market would be chasing Dow 30k if not more.

After the crash of Ď29, the market dropped about 89% before bottoming out about three years later.

Despite that, if you had maintained a 50/50 asset allocation, you would still have broken even after ten years.

 Actually I have heard that prices of goods rapidly declined such that your spending power didn't go down quite as much. I believe that Great Depression was a 7 year event taking that into account.

Looks about right:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2254 on: January 21, 2020, 01:46:11 PM »
Y'all are making it easy for me to go to work tonight.   

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2255 on: January 21, 2020, 03:31:07 PM »
Y'all are making it easy for me to go to work tonight.   
You know everyone always use the 50% drop like the bottom of a crisis and I suppose that is based on some historical reasoning. And while I think of think of our net worth in the same way because lets face it you have to set some perimeters I cant help but to wonder with such a run up if realistically the drop couldn't be even a lot worse. Typically at some point money would come pouring in but has anyone else thought perhaps the same thing? I thought I heard too less people are investing in the stock market because they don't trust it and I want to say mostly millennial's. Not sure if that's true or not. Just curious what others have thought about that if at all because did people really think the market would be chasing Dow 30k if not more.

After the crash of Ď29, the market dropped about 89% before bottoming out about three years later.

Despite that, if you had maintained a 50/50 asset allocation, you would still have broken even after ten years.

 Actually I have heard that prices of goods rapidly declined such that your spending power didn't go down quite as much. I believe that Great Depression was a 7 year event taking that into account.

Looks about right:
https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/



Just a conversation thought. Thanks for the info!

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2256 on: January 22, 2020, 03:58:23 PM »
Lately, I've been thinking a lot about increasing our equities exposure.  It's sort of weird (to me at least) that the more we have, the less of it we need, as a percentage. Therefore, it's okay if our money grows, but it doesn't kill us if it drops. Like @SwordGuy, we have multiple income streams. Our cash stash*, rentals and DH's Defined Benefit Pension kind of mimic bonds, so why not put the rest into equities? There, it can grow long term and earn more money to give a portion to our heirs, and an even bigger slug to charity. Something to think about. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but that's the way mustachians do things, right?

*We flip houses for fun and profit occasionally, so we keep an insane (by mustachian standards) amount of moolah in plain old ready cash. Not under the mattress, of course, but in liquid accounts.




That's been my thinking too.  The more you have, the more you can lean towards equities.  Btw, I noticed VIGAX gained over 37% for 2019.  After selling some more real estate I'm planning to buy some VIGAX.  It seems to prove the point about the unfair advantages Big Business has. 

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2257 on: January 23, 2020, 07:12:05 AM »
Lately, I've been thinking a lot about increasing our equities exposure.  It's sort of weird (to me at least) that the more we have, the less of it we need, as a percentage. Therefore, it's okay if our money grows, but it doesn't kill us if it drops. Like @SwordGuy, we have multiple income streams. Our cash stash*, rentals and DH's Defined Benefit Pension kind of mimic bonds, so why not put the rest into equities? There, it can grow long term and earn more money to give a portion to our heirs, and an even bigger slug to charity. Something to think about. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but that's the way mustachians do things, right?

*We flip houses for fun and profit occasionally, so we keep an insane (by mustachian standards) amount of moolah in plain old ready cash. Not under the mattress, of course, but in liquid accounts.

That's been my thinking too.  The more you have, the more you can lean towards equities.  Btw, I noticed VIGAX gained over 37% for 2019.  After selling some more real estate I'm planning to buy some VIGAX.  It seems to prove the point about the unfair advantages Big Business has.

There's no doubt, by any historical measure, that there is some amount of risk in holding equities, so you just need to figure out your current assessment of willingness, need, and ability to expose yourself to risk. 

Having 'extra' lets you score high on the ability scale, but need is similarly low.  So it then comes down to willingness and I guess that comes down to your assessment of the risk...

Anyway, this Boglehead method provides a framework for thinking about changing an AA and then sticking with it through thick and thin.  These decisions should be as emotionless as possible and re-balancing should be the only knob you have to fiddle with.

snowdog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2258 on: January 23, 2020, 07:19:20 AM »
Lately, I've been thinking a lot about increasing our equities exposure.  It's sort of weird (to me at least) that the more we have, the less of it we need, as a percentage. Therefore, it's okay if our money grows, but it doesn't kill us if it drops. Like @SwordGuy, we have multiple income streams. Our cash stash*, rentals and DH's Defined Benefit Pension kind of mimic bonds, so why not put the rest into equities? There, it can grow long term and earn more money to give a portion to our heirs, and an even bigger slug to charity. Something to think about. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but that's the way mustachians do things, right?

*We flip houses for fun and profit occasionally, so we keep an insane (by mustachian standards) amount of moolah in plain old ready cash. Not under the mattress, of course, but in liquid accounts.




That's been my thinking too.  The more you have, the more you can lean towards equities.  Btw, I noticed VIGAX gained over 37% for 2019.  After selling some more real estate I'm planning to buy some VIGAX.  It seems to prove the point about the unfair advantages Big Business has.

I totally agree.  I was always 100% equities during accumulation but began transitioning 2 years ago to position myself for retirement. At retirement I was 75/12/13 stocks/short-int bonds/cash. While it was painful for me to make this transition, the 25% can ride me through a 7-10 year bear so I'm sleeping like a baby. I have only been retired for 4 months and already the AA has changed to 77/11/12 due to equities market performance.  I have no plans to rebalance.  I'm always amused by the philosophy of "if you've won the game stop playing". When people utter that phrase they immediately equate the capital markets to a Las Vegas casino.  A casino is a game with the odds highly stacked against you.  The market is a collection of companies that create value over time.  When you have "won the game" by living a life of saving and investing in a diversified equity portfolio over the long term, that is much different than hitting it big at the black jack table and walking away. If you assume that you still have a ~25-30 year retirement ahead of you, why all of a sudden abandon the principles that got you here and leave tons of money on the table that could be donated or left to your heirs at some point in the future.  Flawed logic from my perspective.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2259 on: January 23, 2020, 07:31:36 AM »
@snowdog, I like the way you think! Your reasoning is quite persuasive, thanks for your eloquent input.

jeroly

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2260 on: January 23, 2020, 07:53:19 AM »
Lately, I've been thinking a lot about increasing our equities exposure.  It's sort of weird (to me at least) that the more we have, the less of it we need, as a percentage. Therefore, it's okay if our money grows, but it doesn't kill us if it drops. Like @SwordGuy, we have multiple income streams. Our cash stash*, rentals and DH's Defined Benefit Pension kind of mimic bonds, so why not put the rest into equities? There, it can grow long term and earn more money to give a portion to our heirs, and an even bigger slug to charity. Something to think about. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but that's the way mustachians do things, right?

*We flip houses for fun and profit occasionally, so we keep an insane (by mustachian standards) amount of moolah in plain old ready cash. Not under the mattress, of course, but in liquid accounts.




That's been my thinking too.  The more you have, the more you can lean towards equities.  Btw, I noticed VIGAX gained over 37% for 2019.  After selling some more real estate I'm planning to buy some VIGAX.  It seems to prove the point about the unfair advantages Big Business has.

I totally agree.  I was always 100% equities during accumulation but began transitioning 2 years ago to position myself for retirement. At retirement I was 75/12/13 stocks/short-int bonds/cash. While it was painful for me to make this transition, the 25% can ride me through a 7-10 year bear so I'm sleeping like a baby. I have only been retired for 4 months and already the AA has changed to 77/11/12 due to equities market performance.  I have no plans to rebalance.  I'm always amused by the philosophy of "if you've won the game stop playing". When people utter that phrase they immediately equate the capital markets to a Las Vegas casino.  A casino is a game with the odds highly stacked against you.  The market is a collection of companies that create value over time.  When you have "won the game" by living a life of saving and investing in a diversified equity portfolio over the long term, that is much different than hitting it big at the black jack table and walking away. If you assume that you still have a ~25-30 year retirement ahead of you, why all of a sudden abandon the principles that got you here and leave tons of money on the table that could be donated or left to your heirs at some point in the future.  Flawed logic from my perspective.

The logic is not flawed at all.
There is a difference in priorities involved.  These priorities may not be yours but that doesnít mean they arenít right for others.

While the markets are different than a casino in that the odds are in your favor rather than the houseís, they share the fact that results are probability based.  Keeping money in the market exposes yourself to risk.  Even with a withdrawal rate so low that it has never failed in the past, there is still a chance that it will fail in the future.

Some people may have a preference to locking down an as-a-possible-to-a-100%-sure-thing with TIPS etc., rather than taking a chance on the markets. They may willingly forego an expectation of higher available withdrawals or a large/larger legacy in exchange for that risk aversion.

 

snowdog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2261 on: January 23, 2020, 07:56:31 AM »
Thanks Dicey.  And just to clarify, obviously I will need to rebalance at some point and periodically harvest some equities to replenish my cash/bond position and maintain a ~5 years of expense cushion.  I want it at 7-10 years now to battle the SORR but I'll be very comfortable with 5 years thereafter.  The general point is that over time my general equity allocation will continue to creep upward and that is fine by me. 

jeroly

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2262 on: January 23, 2020, 08:05:01 AM »
Thanks Dicey.  And just to clarify, obviously I will need to rebalance at some point and periodically harvest some equities to replenish my cash/bond position and maintain a ~5 years of expense cushion.  I want it at 7-10 years now to battle the SORR but I'll be very comfortable with 5 years thereafter.  The general point is that over time my general equity allocation will continue to creep upward and that is fine by me.
And just to clarify as well, Iím doing a reverse glide path myself, allowing my stock allocation to run up (I hope) from its current 50% to eventually 80%.

snowdog

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2263 on: January 23, 2020, 08:09:06 AM »
Lately, I've been thinking a lot about increasing our equities exposure.  It's sort of weird (to me at least) that the more we have, the less of it we need, as a percentage. Therefore, it's okay if our money grows, but it doesn't kill us if it drops. Like @SwordGuy, we have multiple income streams. Our cash stash*, rentals and DH's Defined Benefit Pension kind of mimic bonds, so why not put the rest into equities? There, it can grow long term and earn more money to give a portion to our heirs, and an even bigger slug to charity. Something to think about. It flies in the face of conventional wisdom, but that's the way mustachians do things, right?

*We flip houses for fun and profit occasionally, so we keep an insane (by mustachian standards) amount of moolah in plain old ready cash. Not under the mattress, of course, but in liquid accounts.




That's been my thinking too.  The more you have, the more you can lean towards equities.  Btw, I noticed VIGAX gained over 37% for 2019.  After selling some more real estate I'm planning to buy some VIGAX.  It seems to prove the point about the unfair advantages Big Business has.

I totally agree.  I was always 100% equities during accumulation but began transitioning 2 years ago to position myself for retirement. At retirement I was 75/12/13 stocks/short-int bonds/cash. While it was painful for me to make this transition, the 25% can ride me through a 7-10 year bear so I'm sleeping like a baby. I have only been retired for 4 months and already the AA has changed to 77/11/12 due to equities market performance.  I have no plans to rebalance.  I'm always amused by the philosophy of "if you've won the game stop playing". When people utter that phrase they immediately equate the capital markets to a Las Vegas casino.  A casino is a game with the odds highly stacked against you.  The market is a collection of companies that create value over time.  When you have "won the game" by living a life of saving and investing in a diversified equity portfolio over the long term, that is much different than hitting it big at the black jack table and walking away. If you assume that you still have a ~25-30 year retirement ahead of you, why all of a sudden abandon the principles that got you here and leave tons of money on the table that could be donated or left to your heirs at some point in the future.  Flawed logic from my perspective.

The logic is not flawed at all.
There is a difference in priorities involved.  These priorities may not be yours but that doesnít mean they arenít right for others.

While the markets are different than a casino in that the odds are in your favor rather than the houseís, they share the fact that results are probability based.  Keeping money in the market exposes yourself to risk.  Even with a withdrawal rate so low that it has never failed in the past, there is still a chance that it will fail in the future.

Some people may have a preference to locking down an as-a-possible-to-a-100%-sure-thing with TIPS etc., rather than taking a chance on the markets. They may willingly forego an expectation of higher available withdrawals or a large/larger legacy in exchange for that risk aversion.

Jeroly, I totally get your point.  However I would say that the markets are only probability based over the short term.  Over the long term markets always go up given a sufficient long term horizon (assuming you ignore the probability of the end of capitalism and the USA). I'm willing to take this risk.  In your example, "some people" are not eliminating risk, rather they are minimizing short term risk that markets will go down, in return for maximizing long term risk of earning subpar returns, leaving money on the table, and not outpacing inflation. 

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2264 on: January 23, 2020, 09:54:02 AM »
Hi... can I hop on?  I'm another reverse glider.  Over $3m (though I'm in GBP: £3.3m total, £2.7m excluding house) - so I think that's about $3.5m excluding house.  I'm also underinvested but working on it (feels like a not great time to be buying equities but I always tend to be anticipating the next crash and although I'm hoping to RE fairly soon, I also have a long retirement to fund so I still need to take a long-term perspective. 

Currently I'm at just over 50% of non-house assets in equities (which is rubbish but up from 40% last year so moving in the right direction).  I've got the rest either in tax free investments (NS&I - poor return but inflation linked and mostly tax free) or in savings accounts just about covering inflation that are due to come to term over the next 1-5 years: so if I invest all of those in equities as they expire I'd end up about 75% in equities in 5 years time (holding everything else constant, which obviously it won't be!).  Which feels like enough for retirement though I see the logic for going further, and would probably dive in more if there was a big fall (I know, I know, market timing bad ...).

Anyway, looking forward to catching up on the thread but thought I would PTF and say Hi.  I also have a journal (link in the footer below but warning - contains whinging).

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2265 on: January 23, 2020, 11:06:20 AM »
@LightTripper I will translate into American for you.

Whinging = Whining...:)

Nice job on the stash, What is your anticipated spend in retirement? You have a lot of moolah there.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2266 on: January 23, 2020, 03:37:48 PM »
@LightTripper I will translate into American for you.

Whinging = Whining...:)

Nice job on the stash, What is your anticipated spend in retirement? You have a lot of moolah there.
or wine-ing, for Alcho-Americans :-)

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2267 on: January 23, 2020, 04:15:57 PM »
@LightTripper I will translate into American for you.

Whinging = Whining...:)

Nice job on the stash, What is your anticipated spend in retirement? You have a lot of moolah there.
or wine-ing, for Alcho-Americans :-)
Oh, I definitely do wine-ing as well as whining!!

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2268 on: January 23, 2020, 04:25:04 PM »
@LightTripper I will translate into American for you.

Whinging = Whining...:)

Nice job on the stash, What is your anticipated spend in retirement? You have a lot of moolah there.
Thank you!!

At the moment my half of household expenses is around £65k, but we have both a full time nanny salary (plus pension, spends) plus school fees plus part time pre-school fees. So this should be maximum. Once I'm RE and even assuming some childcare costs my half would be about £50k.  Excluding children's expenses my own expenses before and after kids have been around £30k, so long long term I'd hope to settle around there. But in the short to medium term it's looking like a pretty fat FIRE!

I'm going to try to shift my job to more part time over the course of this year (have talked to my boss and in principle she's fine with it but in practice she's a workaholic so we'll see.... Though I mainly manage my own projects now so we'll see).

Basically I want to see if I can get back to enjoying my work if I'm less burnt out.... But if not (or it's too stressful to juggle with childcare) my plan is to pull up my big girl pants and ditch it in 2021 (if I do it in the first half of the year I can retire at 45, which is kind of nice?!)

itchyfeet

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2269 on: January 23, 2020, 11:14:54 PM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

flyingaway

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2270 on: January 25, 2020, 02:10:14 AM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

I cannot believe anyone who works for others loves his/her work. If I had more than enough money, I would not work for a minute more.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2271 on: January 25, 2020, 02:40:50 AM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

I cannot believe anyone who works for others loves his/her work. If I had more than enough money, I would not work for a minute more.



I am with you but there are plenty of people that do. Perhaps they need that stimulus and there are those few jobs that people get way over paid to work for people that dont want to sell there business and would rather make less buy treating someone really good to manage it for them as one example

2sk22

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2272 on: January 25, 2020, 04:07:51 AM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

I was just thinking about this recently as my own situation is quite similar. I am currently working in a tech startup, mostly as a favor to the CTO who is an old friend. I know am adding significant value to this company and I enjoy working with the team, and the pay is great. My situation is infinitely better than what it was in my previous megacorp job where I was a tiny cog in a big machine.

But as you put it, I think I am finding increasingly more enjoyable uses of my time than conventional work. I'm quitting this year, the only question is when. My current plan is to stick it out till about September.  By then, I think I will have helped launch the company in a good direction. If not, well, they're on their own :-)

Much Fishing to Do

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2273 on: January 25, 2020, 05:39:31 AM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

I was just thinking about this recently as my own situation is quite similar. I am currently working in a tech startup, mostly as a favor to the CTO who is an old friend. I know am adding significant value to this company and I enjoy working with the team, and the pay is great. My situation is infinitely better than what it was in my previous megacorp job where I was a tiny cog in a big machine.

But as you put it, I think I am finding increasingly more enjoyable uses of my time than conventional work. I'm quitting this year, the only question is when. My current plan is to stick it out till about September.  By then, I think I will have helped launch the company in a good direction. If not, well, they're on their own :-)

Yes.  This is where I am at right now.  When I hit FI I sold my company to get rid of the risk (definitely had enough, so didnt want to chance losing a chunk of it with a deal gone poorly which was always possible) and because the hours were crazy, literally driving me insane...  To help the employees transition I was given a consulting position for the buyer.  I've effectively moved from averaging 60 hrs week to 25/wk.  All is from home in the area I want to live.  The pay is great definitely more than we spend so can continue to save as well.  I believe they'll keep me on for as long as I want to be as I think I definitely add more than enough to the bottom line.  Unlike many I read on this forum I could always find something to spend more money on ;-) so making more is worth something though I guess not a ton (even if its just to give it away)

Getting the risk off and the ton of hours off got rid of most of the stress (which admittedly was making me hate every minute of the work, when it used to be evenly divided in stuff that interested me and then the stuff I hated).  But when the SHit hits the fan I still need to step in and do what it takes, so there have been some long weeks and some stress with that, but then the 10 hr weeks with no pushing from external forces I would like to continue (so yes, on those weeks I would prefer to have the 10 hours working than not, but its never gonna be like that all the time).

So kinda stuck in that place right now, I am the first to admit not a bad place, just one that when I pull the trigger I know its done.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2274 on: January 25, 2020, 10:30:02 AM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

I cannot believe anyone who works for others loves his/her work. If I had more than enough money, I would not work for a minute more.

I guess the real trick may be knowing when it is more than enough.

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2275 on: January 25, 2020, 02:17:42 PM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

I cannot believe anyone who works for others loves his/her work. If I had more than enough money, I would not work for a minute more.

I guess the real trick may be knowing when it is more than enough.

At one point on my journey I defined what "enough" was in lifestyle terms - paid off house, car, $X per month for food/insurance/utilities/etc, a certain amount of recreation and travel.  I also decided what was "safe enough" in terms of the 4% rule and investments.  So I did actually wake up one day and measure that I had "enough".  I ended up working about two years longer just because the job was good money and the environment was still OK.  But it was pretty definitive and not vague in my case.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2276 on: January 25, 2020, 02:46:59 PM »
"Enough?".. Thats easy.

Assuming the market will tank by 50% and I can make twice my most expensive year so far annual spend on 3% of the remainder.

Thats enough...;)


RWD

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2277 on: January 25, 2020, 03:48:18 PM »
"Enough?".. Thats easy.

Assuming the market will tank by 50% and I can make twice my most expensive year so far annual spend on 3% of the remainder.

Thats enough...;)

That is eerily similar to the number I came up with before I discovered the FIRE movement...

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2278 on: January 25, 2020, 03:53:22 PM »
That does sound like a nice margin for error @Exflyboy!

For me, I think my reluctance to fully RE is partly a cautious nature (E.g. I live in a country where wealth taxes are fairly frequently mooted and I suspect a 45 year old with most of their wealth outside their main residence is not going to qualify for a load of get out clauses if that one comes to pass... Or a 55 year old if it happens in 10 years)  If I live to my 90s (possible) I can imagine that free health are may have bitten the dust some time in the next 45 years. One of my children is autistic and might require some support (although I increasingly suspect I am too, and I've done OK).

And I know there is always a theoretical reason you might need more and you have to draw the line somewhere... So you can certainly be too cautious. I think I am genuinely nearly there.

But:
- My job can at times be genuinely fun and interesting, and plays to my ego (I'm often the "expert" in the room and people are interested in my opinion.... Not something that happens a lot in "real life"!)
- If I can find a way to retain the interesting bits without too much of the crap (massive "if"), with plenty of time to hang out with my kids and recharge between projects, then the ability to "keep my hand in" gives me the option to ramp up later if I need to. My job is stupidly well paid, and the half life of the knowledge probably isn't too bad... But still within 5 years of stopping I reckon my options would shrink quite a bit if I did want or need to earn again.
- If I do increase my pot it increases my ability to do good in the world through charitable giving (though there are obviously other ways of doing good that I could and would explore if I had more time). I do feel somewhat guilty "stepping off" the train in terms of producing cash that can be usefully employed through tax etc when I'm capable of doing so. But on the other hand, everyone gets to retire sometime and you risk burn out if you push too hard for too long. Community and family matter too.
- Finally I'm not a person who is very good at change. So I think personality-wise a gradual exit is more sensible than a sudden stop. I'm also not very good at getting things done without deadlines. I'm sure I can learn but... I think I'll do better if I ease into it.
- I am fundamentally a pretty happy person, and getting better at compartmentalising work stress from "life", so continuing working is a bit painful but certainly bearable... I know many people who work hard at not very fun jobs for a lot less money. Although that ability to compartmentalise my work stress failed for a few months last summer, which served as a bit of a wake up call.

So I suppose it comes down to where I am not being quite uncomfortable enough, and where I'm going being a bit scary/uncertain.

Does any of that make sense? Anyone relate? I need to read more of the thread... Not sure if everyone else is already RE or still in accumulation phase!

Don't get me wrong. I am going to RE, and soon. But this is why I'm dipping a toe rather than diving in...

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2279 on: January 25, 2020, 11:21:41 PM »
I think Iíd have to really, really enjoy work to conclude my time was better spent at work than doing whatever the hell I dreamt up on my own.

Even though I donít mind work, I hope I can find even more enjoyable uses for my valuable time.

I was just thinking about this recently as my own situation is quite similar. I am currently working in a tech startup, mostly as a favor to the CTO who is an old friend. I know am adding significant value to this company and I enjoy working with the team, and the pay is great. My situation is infinitely better than what it was in my previous megacorp job where I was a tiny cog in a big machine.

But as you put it, I think I am finding increasingly more enjoyable uses of my time than conventional work. I'm quitting this year, the only question is when. My current plan is to stick it out till about September.  By then, I think I will have helped launch the company in a good direction. If not, well, they're on their own :-)

Yes.  This is where I am at right now.  When I hit FI I sold my company to get rid of the risk (definitely had enough, so didnt want to chance losing a chunk of it with a deal gone poorly which was always possible) and because the hours were crazy, literally driving me insane...  To help the employees transition I was given a consulting position for the buyer.  I've effectively moved from averaging 60 hrs week to 25/wk.  All is from home in the area I want to live.  The pay is great definitely more than we spend so can continue to save as well.  I believe they'll keep me on for as long as I want to be as I think I definitely add more than enough to the bottom line.  Unlike many I read on this forum I could always find something to spend more money on ;-) so making more is worth something though I guess not a ton (even if its just to give it away)

Getting the risk off and the ton of hours off got rid of most of the stress (which admittedly was making me hate every minute of the work, when it used to be evenly divided in stuff that interested me and then the stuff I hated).  But when the SHit hits the fan I still need to step in and do what it takes, so there have been some long weeks and some stress with that, but then the 10 hr weeks with no pushing from external forces I would like to continue (so yes, on those weeks I would prefer to have the 10 hours working than not, but its never gonna be like that all the time).

So kinda stuck in that place right now, I am the first to admit not a bad place, just one that when I pull the trigger I know its done.

Guess I'm either lucky or unusual, but I'm fine with the work / life balance.  There are people that I work with that are hoping for a severance package as they round out their 55 - 65 years.  It is not a stressful working environment, other than knowing I will have to move up in to their shoes when they go.  But moving up also means more company money to do what you want like travel and wine and dine, so maybe it will help me extend another few years even though I don't need to still be working.  It sure is nice to have finally arrived at this point where ER is both easy to realize and easy to put off a little.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2280 on: January 26, 2020, 02:18:06 PM »
Interesting conversation.

By most measures we are beyond FI and have been enjoying RE for the past 6 years or so (Ok, I did some contract work since then, but I have not received a paycheck since May 2016).

The cracks are starting to show to be honest. I am beginning to miss the challenge of the workplace and DW is starting to make noises about my "drive" slipping away.

Like most engineers/scientists I sort of enjoy the idea that I'm the smartest person in the room (I would never say this pubicly.. cough) and fear that maybe my brain is rotting and only those closest to me are noticing it.. hmm.

Not sure what I am going to do about it (if anything) yet. I mean, my withdrawal rate was 1.5% last year.. No point in working ever again is there?..;)




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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2281 on: January 26, 2020, 02:27:29 PM »
I think that when work becomes optional, the attitude towards it shifts significantly.  When you know that you can walk away, yet choose to stay, your outlook is far different than someone who is desperately trying to make ends meet, advance their career, etc.   The paychecks become fun money-- the cherry on top.  Also, its nice to get professional kudos and there is satisfaction in a job well done.

  A lot of you have paycheck jobs, so the difference between working and not working is huge.  In my observation,  self employed "side gigs" can be an extension of something you enjoy doing, ratcheted up a few notches.  Or perhaps something that pays so well that the temptation to do it, perhaps short term, part-time or freelance, is too great to pass up. 

secondcor521

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2282 on: January 26, 2020, 09:03:42 PM »
Yeah, volunteering is good to keep sharp if you don't need income.

Of the people I know who have gone back to work simply to keep sharp or use their skills when they don't need money, most end up quitting in pretty short order because the work BS tends to be very noticeable and prominent if you're not distracted by needing money to pay bills.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2283 on: January 27, 2020, 04:10:07 AM »
I think that when work becomes optional, the attitude towards it shifts significantly.  When you know that you can walk away, yet choose to stay, your outlook is far different than someone who is desperately trying to make ends meet, advance their career, etc.   The paychecks become fun money-- the cherry on top.  Also, its nice to get professional kudos and there is satisfaction in a job well done.

  A lot of you have paycheck jobs, so the difference between working and not working is huge.  In my observation,  self employed "side gigs" can be an extension of something you enjoy doing, ratcheted up a few notches.  Or perhaps something that pays so well that the temptation to do it, perhaps short term, part-time or freelance, is too great to pass up.


well said/Written

LightTripper

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2284 on: January 27, 2020, 04:24:41 AM »
I guess my plan is to try something similar to @Much Fishing to Do or @2sk22 and see how it works out.

I find it genuinely quite hard to imagine what life will be like in the next phase, so a gradual approach feels like the right one to me.  I suspect that once I taste some freedom the bad bits of my job won't be tolerable at all, and I'll learn to live without the good bits ... but I also think there is a chance that if I generally have more time with my family and to myself, then I'll be able to tolerate the bad bits better, and get less stressed (as I'll be less tired/burnt out, so easier to have a sense of perspective).

Of course, it's quite possible I'll also feel I'm not doing a very good job if I'm just doing small projects here and there, and that could also kill the job satisfaction.  Often my most satisfying days at work are the ones with very intense problem solving - but they are also the least good for my physical health and my family time/self care.  It feels hard to balance all that, and you can never really have the best of all worlds - at some level you have to choose what you value most.  I feel like that's the process I am embarking on over the next couple of years, working out what it is that I really *do* value most, and what I'm prepared to sacrifice for it.

desk_jockey

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2285 on: January 27, 2020, 04:52:02 AM »
Often my most satisfying days at work are the ones with very intense problem solving - but they are also the least good for my physical health and my family time/self care.  It feels hard to balance all that, and you can never really have the best of all worlds - at some level you have to choose what you value most.

This resonates with me.  I find productive  work satisfying.  There's just a lot of other non-work stuff that I want to do while young enough.  Am thinking to look into short term contracting opportunities in my area of expertise when I pull the trigger.  3-6 months working a year might be a good fit for me.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2286 on: January 27, 2020, 09:39:16 AM »
Exflyboy needs a boat.  Then he will spend all his excess time and money keeping it afloat.

GreenEggs

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2287 on: January 27, 2020, 10:23:46 AM »
Exflyboy needs a boat.  Then he will spend all his excess time and money keeping it afloat.


I highly recommend a boat.  Nothing beats cocktails on the boat watching the sunset.  :)

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2288 on: January 27, 2020, 10:32:26 AM »
Exflyboy needs a boat.  Then he will spend all his excess time and money keeping it afloat.


I highly recommend a boat.  Nothing beats cocktails on the boat watching the sunset.  :)

ditto - There's magic from the sky as the last rays of sun join the water.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2289 on: January 27, 2020, 11:20:15 AM »
Haha.. I think I'd be hitting up another fast airplane first.. I've seen a couple that whet my appetite..:)

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2290 on: January 27, 2020, 12:12:08 PM »
Haha.. I think I'd be hitting up another fast airplane first.. I've seen a couple that whet my appetite..:)

That will definitely work.   Planes are just flying boats anyway.  Money hungry SOB's and they float in the air. 

Threshkin

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2291 on: January 27, 2020, 12:19:55 PM »
Haha.. I think I'd be hitting up another fast airplane first.. I've seen a couple that whet my appetite..:)

That will definitely work.   Planes are just flying boats anyway.  Money hungry SOB's and they float in the air.

A plane is a hole in the air that swallows money.  :)

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2292 on: January 27, 2020, 12:22:43 PM »
Haha.. I think I'd be hitting up another fast airplane first.. I've seen a couple that whet my appetite..:)

That will definitely work.   Planes are just flying boats anyway.  Money hungry SOB's and they float in the air.

Per https://xkcd.com/thing-explainer/   book, an airplane is a "sky boat".
In Thing Explainer: Complicated Stuff in Simple Words, things are explained in the style of Up Goer Five, using only drawings and a vocabulary of the 1,000 (or "ten hundred") most common words.

Get a real flying boat, and have the best/worst of both worlds :-)

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2293 on: January 27, 2020, 12:55:22 PM »
Actually a guy I know built the same airplane I did and then put it on amphibious floats.

It was one of the fastest "seaplanes" flying..:)

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2294 on: January 27, 2020, 03:20:30 PM »
Actually a guy I know built the same airplane I did and then put it on amphibious floats.

It was one of the fastest "seaplanes" flying..:)


That's cool.  What kind of plane did you build? 


I'm considering getting my pilots license. 

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2295 on: January 27, 2020, 05:27:43 PM »
Actually a guy I know built the same airplane I did and then put it on amphibious floats.

It was one of the fastest "seaplanes" flying..:)


That's cool.  What kind of plane did you build? 


I'm considering getting my pilots license.

A Vans RV 7a with about 190hp, Constant speed prop and full instrument capability. I did my instrument rating in it. It used to cruise at around 200mph or 185mph in "economy".

It had inverted fuel and oil systems for aerobatics too.

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2296 on: January 28, 2020, 01:06:54 AM »
Interesting conversation.

By most measures we are beyond FI and have been enjoying RE for the past 6 years or so (Ok, I did some contract work since then, but I have not received a paycheck since May 2016).

The cracks are starting to show to be honest. I am beginning to miss the challenge of the workplace and DW is starting to make noises about my "drive" slipping away.

Like most engineers/scientists I sort of enjoy the idea that I'm the smartest person in the room (I would never say this pubicly.. cough) and fear that maybe my brain is rotting and only those closest to me are noticing it.. hmm.

Not sure what I am going to do about it (if anything) yet. I mean, my withdrawal rate was 1.5% last year.. No point in working ever again is there?..;)

https://www.ewb-usa.org/

Also, mentoring.    I would bet OSU would have opportunities.  My daughter joined robotics at school and they are participating in the FIRST robotics competition -- season is from Jan-Mayish, so a good time for indoor volunteering (the teams have mentors and coaches).

https://www.firstinspires.org/robotics/frc

I can recommend FIRST too. I have coached several First LEGO League teams and have also served as a judge in some First Tech Challenge competitionS. For a technically minded person, this is great way to stay in shape mentally and do some good work at the same time.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2297 on: January 28, 2020, 03:27:22 AM »
Exflyboy needs a boat.  Then he will spend all his excess time and money keeping it afloat.


I highly recommend a boat.  Nothing beats cocktails on the boat watching the sunset.  :)

ditto - There's magic from the sky as the last rays of sun join the water.



So why we moved onto the lake so we could have the ease of any night that serves up good weather walk down and have cocktails on the boat and so much more. So fun and relaxing!

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2298 on: January 28, 2020, 05:01:06 AM »
The town about 8 miles away is the "North Country Trail Town" for the region.  I think one of my first "retirement" jobs or volunteering will be there assuming there isn't some internal political stuff that ruins it.

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!
« Reply #2299 on: January 28, 2020, 01:22:03 PM »
I think that when work becomes optional, the attitude towards it shifts significantly.  When you know that you can walk away, yet choose to stay, your outlook is far different than someone who is desperately trying to make ends meet, advance their career, etc.   The paychecks become fun money-- the cherry on top.  Also, its nice to get professional kudos and there is satisfaction in a job well done.

  A lot of you have paycheck jobs, so the difference between working and not working is huge.  In my observation,  self employed "side gigs" can be an extension of something you enjoy doing, ratcheted up a few notches.  Or perhaps something that pays so well that the temptation to do it, perhaps short term, part-time or freelance, is too great to pass up.

Yes I feel the same way about my self-employment situation.