Author Topic: Race from $2M to $4M...and Beyond!  (Read 1269979 times)

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1100 on: May 31, 2019, 02:07:14 PM »
I can only assume the $2257 is in future dollars???????
Correct. If by future dollars you mean the actual payout at 67 (or whenever) is adjusted for inflation.

Good to know.. I didn't see that anywhere on the website.. Do you know what inflation rate they are assuming?

I should be able to make the numbers jive in theory by taking my calculated PIA (1825 in my case) and multiplying by (1.x)^10 (10 being 67-57, my current age).

Looks like its around 2% per annum if indeed the projected benefit is in future dollars.

Either way that article will not get you to the number shown on your SS statement.
« Last Edit: May 31, 2019, 02:17:19 PM by Exflyboy »

CoffeeR

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1101 on: May 31, 2019, 02:27:19 PM »
I can only assume the $2257 is in future dollars???????
Correct. If by future dollars you mean the actual payout at 67 (or whenever) is adjusted for inflation.

Good to know.. I didn't see that anywhere on the website.. Do you know what inflation rate they are assuming?

I should be able to make the numbers jive in theory by taking my calculated PIA (1825 in my case) and multiplying by (1.x)^10 (10 being 67-57, my current age).

Looks like its around 2% per annum if indeed the projected benefit is in future dollars.

Either way that article will not get you to the number shown on your SS statement.
Maybe I misunderstand. The $2257 is current dollars that will be adjusted for actual inflation numbers. At least I believe that is the case, so there is no assumption of inflation rate.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1102 on: May 31, 2019, 02:30:09 PM »
According to this article..

https://www.fool.com/retirement/2018/09/24/how-much-social-security-will-i-get-a-step-by-step.aspx

Its even more complicated.. Apparently the earnings record you see on your SS security statement has to be adjusted for inflation for each year worked using some worksheet somewhere.

Looking at my earnings data, there is no way this has been adjusted because it jives with my W2 statements.

So if the Mfool article is correct you have to first go through and apply a multiplying factor to each of your working years earnings.

That then gets you to your average monthly earnings.

Once again.. getting from your earnings data to your SS statement estimate is quite a bit more complex that the first article implies.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1103 on: May 31, 2019, 02:38:02 PM »
OK here is the definitive way to run your own numbers.. And hopefully get to the numbers shown on your SS statement..:)

I don't have time to go through all mine for a second time but its clear it will give you a very different answer to the one I first calculated from that article. I will almost certainly be above the second bend point whereas the first article implied that I would be below.

https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10070.pdf

FIREstache

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1104 on: May 31, 2019, 05:57:54 PM »

The webpage does say that it's in "today's dollars".  Looks like I'm at a good place, just a bit below the second bend if I FIRE on schedule.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1105 on: May 31, 2019, 06:57:16 PM »

The webpage does say that it's in "today's dollars".  Looks like I'm at a good place, just a bit below the second bend if I FIRE on schedule.

Did you factor up each of your yearly earnings for inflation?

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1106 on: May 31, 2019, 08:02:37 PM »

The webpage does say that it's in "today's dollars".  Looks like I'm at a good place, just a bit below the second bend if I FIRE on schedule.

Did you factor up each of your yearly earnings for inflation?

The social security tool does that for you, you just copy and paste your earnings record from ssa.gov

Then the amount you get, is in today's dollars.
The actual amount will be higher, as inflation adjustments will kick in.

FIREstache

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1107 on: May 31, 2019, 08:11:47 PM »

The webpage does say that it's in "today's dollars".  Looks like I'm at a good place, just a bit below the second bend if I FIRE on schedule.

Did you factor up each of your yearly earnings for inflation?

I did not.  You're supposed to paste in the figures from ssa.gov without editing them.

I also use the downloadable ssa.gov detailed calculator, and it matches very closely to the figure from that website.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1108 on: June 01, 2019, 04:01:25 AM »
NW down over 67k this month -- basically back to where we were two months ago.  At least all this volatility is showing me I have got the buy and hold thing down.  We've got a big enough cash stash to ride out any downturn (and ride it back up from the bottom).  Not financially optimized, maybe, but good for the mental health.  And the long-term retirement funds are all invested and won't be tapped for another 10-20 years.


Right there with ya! and agree totally!

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1109 on: June 01, 2019, 04:23:44 AM »
With SS being at least twelve years away for me, it's just too far out for me to ponder.  My only concern is if it's there at all and when to take it.  I did look up the projected number at 62 and wasn't impressed at all.  The actual number will most likely be even less with some zero or near zero years.  I hope it can pay my medicare and supplement.   That would be a riot. 

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1110 on: June 01, 2019, 04:30:32 AM »
NW down over 67k this month -- basically back to where we were two months ago.  At least all this volatility is showing me I have got the buy and hold thing down.  We've got a big enough cash stash to ride out any downturn (and ride it back up from the bottom).  Not financially optimized, maybe, but good for the mental health.  And the long-term retirement funds are all invested and won't be tapped for another 10-20 years.


Right there with ya! and agree totally!

Yep.   Down almost 100K, barly keeping the nose over the 2M mark.   If I'd FIRE'd already my 2M floor and go back to work trigger would be getting close.  I'm probably working 12 to 18 more months.  Just waiting this out.  We've seen a much larger recent drop and it recovered quickly.  A 20 to 25 percent drop is still looming in my opinion.   The trade war might get it started.  We'll see what comes.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2019, 04:32:08 AM by Bateaux »

dogboyslim

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1111 on: June 01, 2019, 07:50:29 AM »
Down $90k here.  Still hovering around 2.15, but without the house, I'm back in the prior group again.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1112 on: June 01, 2019, 08:22:59 AM »
Down $90k here.  Still hovering around 2.15, but without the house, I'm back in the prior group again.
I'm not throwing in real estate yet, since our isn't income producing.   I'm thinking before years end we retest the lows of last year.  That was rather painful.   

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1113 on: June 01, 2019, 08:41:22 AM »
I loved this latest blog post on Social Security and early retirement from the Finance Buff

https://thefinancebuff.com/early-retirement-social-security-benefits.html
Great link, thank you.

FIREstache

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1114 on: June 01, 2019, 12:41:31 PM »
With SS being at least twelve years away for me, it's just too far out for me to ponder.  My only concern is if it's there at all and when to take it.  I did look up the projected number at 62 and wasn't impressed at all.  The actual number will most likely be even less with some zero or near zero years.  I hope it can pay my medicare and supplement.   That would be a riot.

Under current law and the ACA, the earliest I would take SS is 65 because the full SS benefit, both taxable and non-taxable SS, counts toward MAGI in determining ACA PCT and CSR.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1115 on: June 01, 2019, 01:19:11 PM »
With SS being at least twelve years away for me, it's just too far out for me to ponder.  My only concern is if it's there at all and when to take it.  I did look up the projected number at 62 and wasn't impressed at all.  The actual number will most likely be even less with some zero or near zero years.  I hope it can pay my medicare and supplement.   That would be a riot.

Under current law and the ACA, the earliest I would take SS is 65 because the full SS benefit, both taxable and non-taxable SS, counts toward MAGI in determining ACA PCT and CSR.

Thats my strategy too. I may even delay taking my company pension from the UK for the same reason.


DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1116 on: June 01, 2019, 09:15:59 PM »
I'm teaching yoga whereby I end up being an employee of public schools. I'm hoping that I can get the service credits needed to be able to retire from it at age 60 and get the retiree health plan with premiums 80% covered. If I get that, then my strategy will shift to Rothification of assets.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1117 on: June 02, 2019, 06:13:31 PM »
I went back and recalculated my projected SS payments.. Finally I can now reconcile SS projections with my own calcs.

I also am a mere $87,000 of total earnings under the second bend point.

Maybe I should go back to work for OMY...:)

Shame about the windfall elimination program as that will cost me about $450/m.

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1118 on: June 02, 2019, 10:58:05 PM »
I went back and recalculated my projected SS payments.. Finally I can now reconcile SS projections with my own calcs.

I also am a mere $87,000 of total earnings under the second bend point.

Maybe I should go back to work for OMY...:)

Shame about the windfall elimination program as that will cost me about $450/m.

Luckily, you don't need it.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1119 on: June 03, 2019, 04:23:15 AM »
Ugh. I should not have looked, but it’s the beginning of the month and time to do our financials. Looks like we are down about $70k to $2.273M.
We need at least $2.5M to RE without lifestyle change. I’m still hoping we get there by May 2020.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1120 on: June 03, 2019, 10:41:09 AM »
Ugh. I should not have looked, but it’s the beginning of the month and time to do our financials. Looks like we are down about $70k to $2.273M.
We need at least $2.5M to RE without lifestyle change. I’m still hoping we get there by May 2020.

Stay off of Yahoo Finance..:)

Threshkin

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1121 on: June 03, 2019, 07:04:23 PM »
I loved this latest blog post on Social Security and early retirement from the Finance Buff

https://thefinancebuff.com/early-retirement-social-security-benefits.html

I used the info on this page to check my SS earnings statement and estimate my SS income.  The SS.gov web site is updated and improved.  (My last login was 2015)  The blog post also links to an excellent SS benefit calculator that makes it very easy to estimate your monthly SS income at different ages.  The numbers were very close to what I initially estimated but it was good to get confirmation and the process is massively simpler than it was back in 2015.  If you are at or near RE is worth checking it out.

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1122 on: June 03, 2019, 07:14:40 PM »
Ugh. I should not have looked, but it’s the beginning of the month and time to do our financials. Looks like we are down about $70k to $2.273M.
We need at least $2.5M to RE without lifestyle change. I’m still hoping we get there by May 2020.

I feel ya. My wife and I save around $15-20K per month and when I see that, despite that, our net worth goes down in a given month, I know it’s been a bad month.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1123 on: June 04, 2019, 08:52:36 AM »
Ugh. I should not have looked, but it’s the beginning of the month and time to do our financials. Looks like we are down about $70k to $2.273M.
We need at least $2.5M to RE without lifestyle change. I’m still hoping we get there by May 2020.

Stay off of Yahoo Finance..:)
And CNN, and NY Times and Bloomberg and CNBC- if you are referring to the prediction that we are headed into a recession.
Then again CNN is also claiming that climate change could pose an existential threat by 2050. In which case no amount of money will help us.
Either way we loose?

Regardless, the crazy market has me thinking that I should really plan to continue some kind of part time work for the next 10-20 years. Aiming for $15-$20k per year of earnings. This would help cover tuition, our expensive travel habit and my anxiety.
If I could earn it all during tax season that would be perfect.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1124 on: June 04, 2019, 09:31:36 AM »
Looks like the market is recovering a bit this morning.   Not even going to check Mint today.   I'm headed out to ride my mountain bike instead.  Hard to think about anything except the next second or two on rough terrain.

markbike528CBX

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1125 on: June 04, 2019, 09:52:17 AM »
Ugh. I should not have looked, but it’s the beginning of the month and time to do our financials. Looks like we are down about $70k to $2.273M.
We need at least $2.5M to RE without lifestyle change. I’m still hoping we get there by May 2020.

Stay off of Yahoo Finance..:)
And CNN, and NY Times and Bloomberg and CNBC- if you are referring to the prediction that we are headed into a recession.
Then again CNN is also claiming that climate change could pose an existential threat by 2050. In which case no amount of money will help us.
Either way we loose?

Regardless, the crazy normal market has me thinking that I should really plan to continue some kind of part time work for the next 10-20 years. Aiming for $15-$20k per year of earnings. This would not help cover tuition, our expensive travel habit and my anxiety.
If I could earn it all during tax season that would be perfect.
Fixed THat For You /snark
IF this were the 10-100k thread, I would not have needed to fix anything. On this thread... are you kidding me? If you have that level of anxiety "which case no amount of money will help us".

I've given up on Bateaux's OMY, OMY , but you might be saved.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1126 on: June 04, 2019, 11:01:39 AM »
Ugh. I should not have looked, but it’s the beginning of the month and time to do our financials. Looks like we are down about $70k to $2.273M.
We need at least $2.5M to RE without lifestyle change. I’m still hoping we get there by May 2020.

Stay off of Yahoo Finance..:)
And CNN, and NY Times and Bloomberg and CNBC- if you are referring to the prediction that we are headed into a recession.
Then again CNN is also claiming that climate change could pose an existential threat by 2050. In which case no amount of money will help us.
Either way we loose?

Regardless, the crazy normal market has me thinking that I should really plan to continue some kind of part time work for the next 10-20 years. Aiming for $15-$20k per year of earnings. This would not help cover tuition, our expensive travel habit and my anxiety.
If I could earn it all during tax season that would be perfect.
Fixed THat For You /snark
IF this were the 10-100k thread, I would not have needed to fix anything. On this thread... are you kidding me? If you have that level of anxiety "which case no amount of money will help us".

I've given up on Bateaux's OMY, OMY , but you might be saved.
I would really, really like to be saved. I want to be done. My problem is that we are 42 and raising kids. So I'm projecting a long retirement with a large gray area on kids expenses. I think it would be a lot easier if we didn't have two young kids. Current expenses are a base of $75k. But we have tuition, healthcare (if we both RE) and we like to travel as a family. Won't be long and they won't be caught dead with me. :)

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1127 on: June 04, 2019, 02:02:11 PM »
There's nothing wrong with some part time work.
I work part time and I enjoy it, and consequently I'm not even touching my savings.

The financial independence gives you options, the option to have some anxiety about it, but yet retire anyway, even if it's just partial retirement.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1128 on: June 04, 2019, 02:16:55 PM »
The "only" problem with pt work is that once you have RE'd, gerrymandered your earnings to maximise your ACA subsidy and pay $zero federal taxes.. Well almost any earnings has you paying full freight on healthcare.

In our case I couldn't ask enough $$ to make it worth my while.. Well.. I asked, but they wouldn't pay it. In effect I would have been working for such a low wage I'd rather give my time for free to a worthy cause..:)

DavidAnnArbor

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1129 on: June 04, 2019, 05:05:14 PM »
I definitely get a subsidy for ACA and I have earnings.
I take advantage of everything, 401k, tIRA, HSA, etc. - lowers my income enough to qualify for subsidies.

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1130 on: June 04, 2019, 05:23:50 PM »
The "only" problem with pt work is that once you have RE'd, gerrymandered your earnings to maximise your ACA subsidy and pay $zero federal taxes.. Well almost any earnings has you paying full freight on healthcare.

In our case I couldn't ask enough $$ to make it worth my while.. Well.. I asked, but they wouldn't pay it. In effect I would have been working for such a low wage I'd rather give my time for free to a worthy cause..:)
Oh crap. I didn’t even think about that. Well I’ve got another issue then. I have and RMD in two inherited IRAs that totals $10k a year (this is included in my net worth). And I’m receiving a trust distribution of about $10k per year which may increase (the trust balance is not included in my net worth because it only becomes my money when my last grandparent dies. Both of these will hit our income and I have no control over it. Which would make the ACA premiums increase. I don’t even think I can game it with the two years of cash I have saved. I should have thought of this. I don’t think it changes my plans to FIRE in 2020 but we will have to consider what the cost of insurance would do if we both quit.

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1131 on: June 04, 2019, 06:16:57 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2019, 06:18:35 PM by Bateaux »

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1132 on: June 04, 2019, 06:25:28 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.
DH still works for some damn good reasons. He always jokes that he has to go to work so he can relax.

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1133 on: June 04, 2019, 06:27:38 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting. Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.
Wow, what an adventure. I hope you heal quickly.

What sort of bravery and/or insanity does it take to go play outdoors when you have biting horse flies around?

BeanCounter

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1134 on: June 04, 2019, 06:35:31 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.
Wow! Tomorrow is going to be rough getting out of bed.

EscapeVelocity2020

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1135 on: June 04, 2019, 07:09:10 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.
DH still works for some damn good reasons. He always jokes that he has to go to work so he can relax.

Yeah, it's way too dangerous out there in the real world!  I've never crashed my office chair or been bitten by horse flies sitting at my computer ;)

Bateaux

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1136 on: June 04, 2019, 08:39:05 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.
DH still works for some damn good reasons. He always jokes that he has to go to work so he can relax.

Yeah, it's way too dangerous out there in the real world!  I've never crashed my office chair or been bitten by horse flies sitting at my computer ;)

I can't actually say I haven't crashed an office chair.  We've had some mean games of full contact, office chair basketball.   

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1137 on: June 04, 2019, 11:27:02 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.
DH still works for some damn good reasons. He always jokes that he has to go to work so he can relax.

Yeah, it's way too dangerous out there in the real world!  I've never crashed my office chair or been bitten by horse flies sitting at my computer ;)

I can't actually say I haven't crashed an office chair.  We've had some mean games of full contact, office chair basketball.   
You have my vote for best use of office chairs ever.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1138 on: June 05, 2019, 03:36:38 AM »
Wow, 27k bounce back. crazy market. Back in the day would of been a good trading day!

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1139 on: June 05, 2019, 08:29:23 AM »
Wow, 27k bounce back. crazy market. Back in the day would of been a good trading day!

I love the psychology of market swings.. Especially that knot in the stomach as it plummets..

Then I think.. wait.. Even if our portfolio dropped a full 50% the resulting WR for our most expensive year so far would be a "massive" 3%!

Yet still every time it tanks like it did I feel it..:)

ysette9

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1140 on: June 05, 2019, 09:25:54 AM »
I checked our spreadsheet yesterday and our invested net worth was around $60k less than the previous entry in the spreadsheet. My reaction was sort of “eh, okay”. Maybe it would be more of an event if we weren’t still working.

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1141 on: June 05, 2019, 02:33:34 PM »
Wow, 27k bounce back. crazy market. Back in the day would of been a good trading day!

I love the psychology of market swings.. Especially that knot in the stomach as it plummets..

Then I think.. wait.. Even if our portfolio dropped a full 50% the resulting WR for our most expensive year so far would be a "massive" 3%!

Yet still every time it tanks like it did I feel it..:)

I guess its really not that much unlike putting sums equaling the daily swings on Black on a roulette wheel (which I assume would make most of us puke)  given huge $ amounts, the immediacy of the result, and the uncertainty of being up or down being very close to 50% for both (The market is up for the day generally less that 53% of the time, and the bet on black will win more than 47% of the time, so for one day/spin not that noticeably different).  Its only in the long run do we know those few percent are gonna matter as things average out)


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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1142 on: June 06, 2019, 12:46:38 AM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.

I used to think that it isn’t mountain biking if you’re not bleeding somewhere by the end of the ride. Now I am older and wiser - blood is no longer required. Unfortunately it still happens often.

soccerluvof4

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1143 on: June 06, 2019, 02:59:36 AM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.

I used to think that it isn’t mountain biking if you’re not bleeding somewhere by the end of the ride. Now I am older and wiser - blood is no longer required. Unfortunately it still happens often.


I haven't rode in at least ten years hard or done a race but seemed like if something wasn't healing on me I wasn't riding hard or fast enough. Now looking back It was more about having a whole lot less care in the world! Miss those worry free days!!

Dicey

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1144 on: June 06, 2019, 10:25:47 AM »
Wow, 27k bounce back. crazy market. Back in the day would of been a good trading day!

I love the psychology of market swings.. Especially that knot in the stomach as it plummets..

Then I think.. wait.. Even if our portfolio dropped a full 50% the resulting WR for our most expensive year so far would be a "massive" 3%!

Yet still every time it tanks like it did I feel it..:)

I guess its really not that much unlike putting sums equaling the daily swings on Black on a roulette wheel (which I assume would make most of us puke)  given huge $ amounts, the immediacy of the result, and the uncertainty of being up or down being very close to 50% for both (The market is up for the day generally less that 53% of the time, and the bet on black will win more than 47% of the time, so for one day/spin not that noticeably different).  Its only in the long run do we know those few percent are gonna matter as things average out)
No, you lose your entire bet when Black doesn't come up. The stock market, on then other hand, always comes back up and you still have all your chips, plus the ones you added when the market was down ;-)

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1145 on: June 06, 2019, 04:37:39 PM »
Hey!  I've only OMY'd once.  Take it easy on me, I crashed my mountain bike today.  Bruised ribs, skinned up elbow and a very tender wrist. I came out under my own power on the bike.    I hiked over 4 miles afterwards to work out the soreness.   Then a thunderstorm dumped on me.  Even at the height of the storm, the horse flies never quit biting.   Hell with days off.  I'm going to work tomorrow to heal.

I used to think that it isn’t mountain biking if you’re not bleeding somewhere by the end of the ride. Now I am older and wiser - blood is no longer required. Unfortunately it still happens often.

Since I'm 50, I think I'll be trending more towards gravel bike terrain.  Still beautiful, still remote and less chance of serious injury.

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1146 on: June 06, 2019, 07:39:57 PM »
"No, you lose your entire bet when Black doesn't come up. The stock market, on then other hand, always comes back up and you still have all your chips, plus the ones you added when the market was down ;-)"

Looking at the market history chart, sometimes it can take darn long to come back to a former peak.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Look, for example at August of 1965.  That value wasn't reached again until 1995.  Just looking at the shape of the chart, I can readily envision the wonderful heights we have reached plummeting to a trough.  The good numbers of the 1920's also took a long time to repeat.

I guess "beyond!" could become 1.5 million for a while.  If time is on your side, it will come back.

Exflyboy

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1147 on: June 07, 2019, 12:15:09 AM »
"No, you lose your entire bet when Black doesn't come up. The stock market, on then other hand, always comes back up and you still have all your chips, plus the ones you added when the market was down ;-)"

Looking at the market history chart, sometimes it can take darn long to come back to a former peak.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart

Look, for example at August of 1965.  That value wasn't reached again until 1995.  Just looking at the shape of the chart, I can readily envision the wonderful heights we have reached plummeting to a trough.  The good numbers of the 1920's also took a long time to repeat.

I guess "beyond!" could become 1.5 million for a while.  If time is on your side, it will come back.

That chart is both inflation adjusted and (I think) does not include dividends.

When in retirement one also adds some portion of bonds usually. Normally bonds increase in value when stocks go down.

So if you have say 25 to 40% bond funds would (in theory) make a 1965 event much less bad..:)

pecunia

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1148 on: June 07, 2019, 06:08:45 AM »
Yeh - But while you are waiting, the bonds make your return less.  I guess if you've got the 30 years you can sit on the stocks.  Some of us, unfortunately, do not. 

I may have brought this up before, but what caused the stocks to plunge in 1965.  Was it spending on the Vietnam War?  Was it the onset of competition from the Japanese?  Was it Great Society spending?  I mean 1965 was good times for the country.   The good jobs were still around.  We were getting technologically advanced, getting ready to go to the moon.  The oil shocks to the economy had not occurred.

I like to think good times are all around.  It was basically good times.  US industry was punching out cars, making steel and throw away gadgets.  A rising tide is supposed to lift all boats.  What was up with the stock market?  When I studied history in school, they didn't emphasize rich folks with stocks so I don't understand this plunge.  I don't think inflation was out of hand either.  Government deficit spending wasn't crazy like it is now.  We weren't selling overseas bonds to the Chinese.

So, money gurus why did stocks fall beginning in 1965?  Might give some ideas to watch out for.

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Re: Race from $2M to $3M.....and beyond!
« Reply #1149 on: June 07, 2019, 06:12:19 AM »
Wow, 27k bounce back. crazy market. Back in the day would of been a good trading day!

I love the psychology of market swings.. Especially that knot in the stomach as it plummets..

Then I think.. wait.. Even if our portfolio dropped a full 50% the resulting WR for our most expensive year so far would be a "massive" 3%!

Yet still every time it tanks like it did I feel it..:)

I guess its really not that much unlike putting sums equaling the daily swings on Black on a roulette wheel (which I assume would make most of us puke)  given huge $ amounts, the immediacy of the result, and the uncertainty of being up or down being very close to 50% for both (The market is up for the day generally less that 53% of the time, and the bet on black will win more than 47% of the time, so for one day/spin not that noticeably different).  Its only in the long run do we know those few percent are gonna matter as things average out)
No, you lose your entire bet when Black doesn't come up. The stock market, on then other hand, always comes back up and you still have all your chips, plus the ones you added when the market was down ;-)
I said it is like putting the daily move on black, not your entire stake.  the market always coming back is what happen ver time, I'm talking about the daily move and the feeling around it, if I made money that day I could add chips just like I can add to down stocks.  I think its a pretty good analogy for the one day move.  If you were given the win for 0 and 00 as well as black then you would win 53% of the time and like the stock market over time would make money.