Author Topic: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge  (Read 38868 times)

Jeremy E.

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I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« on: January 26, 2016, 04:40:42 PM »
I made an account on investopedia and started a stock simulation game, everyone starts with $100,000 fake money to invest and we will see who is the "best" at investing. I'll also keep track of what the S&P 500 does, who will beat the S&P 500? Who will win? Ends April 25, 2016 and then I'll start a new game.
the game is "MMM Contest" the password is "mustachian"
The S&P 500 is currently at $1,903.63(1/26/16), with $100,000 that's 52.53 shares
good luck!

Edit:
I've started MMM Contest 2, to join, make an account at Investopedia.com, then go to Investopedia.com/simulator/game, click join game, search for MMM Contest 2 in containing words, then click join, no password. Additional rule for MMM Contest 2, No index funds! index funds are for smart people, we are trying to see how bad we are at picking individual companies. Good Luck everyone!
« Last Edit: May 05, 2016, 06:11:58 PM by Jeremy E. »

arebelspy

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2016, 03:33:54 AM »
A three month guessing/gambling game?

Picking stocks on a three month time frame doesn't qualify for any sort of "investing" whether you outperform or not.

and we see who is the best at investing.

lol.

Good one.  :)
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Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #2 on: January 27, 2016, 09:58:18 AM »
A three month guessing/gambling game?

Picking stocks on a three month time frame doesn't qualify for any sort of "investing" whether you outperform or not.

and we see who is the best at investing.

lol.

Good one.  :)
ya it's just for fun, I suppose if I made it last 10 years it would be more accurate, and in real life I would never buy the ridiculous stocks I bought in this game anyways, but it's fun!

Rosy

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #3 on: January 27, 2016, 12:22:27 PM »
A three month guessing/gambling game?

Picking stocks on a three month time frame doesn't qualify for any sort of "investing" whether you outperform or not.

and we see who is the best at investing.

lol.

Good one.  :)

True, but it would be fun and a win at three months is still a win:) which is why one invests. Time improves your odds, sure, but it always involves risk - you may lose a good chunk of your principal - and your time may not be my time - as all retirees know. It could be that a three month win might be all I need to make a difference in my financial life.

I have no time left, but it would be fun to see how my choices would perform. The only reason I don't in real life is because I am convinced this downward slide will continue for at least another ten years or longer and I don't have a big enough stash to play at investing and risk losing even a small part of it. I'm guessing there will be no Vanguard index funds in this game, but I had already decided to track my potential choices for this year just to see the results of "what if", ignoring the fact that time is no longer on my side. 

Thanks, Jeremy I'll check it out - it will certainly be entertaining and maybe even educational, it might be the catalyst to finally read that jhcollins series.

zephyr911

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #4 on: January 28, 2016, 11:32:46 AM »
Since this is a game with no real-world consequences, I've sunk my first $50K (max single purchase, per the rules) into 5-month-old Terraform Global, a yieldco founded by the troubled SUNE and devalued dramatically over concerns about its parent's management, risk to overseas holdings, and general backlash against the yieldco sector. It IPO'd in early Sept at about $14 and slid to barely $3 at one point, and is now trading at $4.35 (~80% of book value) with a ludicrous yield of ~25%. Its first listed dividend, for a partial quarter, understates yield by almost 40% on most public listings, and according to recent filings and analysis, the current capital shortage at SUNE and its yieldcos (the cause of much bloodletting with all 3) is unlikely to produce any risk to GLBL's current dividend, only to hinder near-term growth by delaying some project transfers. And on top of that, yieldco books spook a lot of analysts because depreciation and other things make their GAAP earnings look horrible (kind of how I can earn profit on a rental and not have taxable income).

In a couple of weeks, when the first full quarter's results are announced, even a flat dividend could easily produce a bounce, so I bet the max on it, not being currently familiar with any other easy prospects for a quick 3-month play. The dividend announced in early Feb should be added to my game portfolio, I assume, for a gain of $2-3K in late March.

I'll probably look for a similar play for the other $50k to keep things simple (and needlessly dramatic). Sharing all this just for S&G I guess, since I assume everyone else will be doing something else anyway and half the fun is seeing how people go about picking.

FTR, I put about 5% of NW into this stock recently, not because it might go up, but because the scheduled cash flow is so deeply discounted (it owns power generation assets on long-term utility contracts, whose risk is generally low and may be overstated now). Unless the company fails, it will have been a real bargain for the lifetime cash flow, and my risk tolerance within IRAs is high since they're a small part of my strategy.

2Birds1Stone

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #5 on: January 28, 2016, 11:42:38 AM »
I'm long on $TULIPS

zephyr911

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Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #7 on: January 28, 2016, 12:53:20 PM »
I've already bought 100k worth of stocks, don't know if I'll ever sell any but we'll see.
Currently I have
NNN (national retail properties inc) - $10,000
GNTX (Gentex Corp) - $6,500
INFY (Infosys LTD) - $7,000
ADSK (Autodesk INC) - $12,500 (I use one of their products for my job, and it's very good)
COST (Costco) - $15,000 (I believe in Costco's business model and expect them to do well compared to most stocks right now)
SPWR (Sunpower Corp) - $4,750
CYBR (Cyberark Software LTD) - $6,000
HCP (HCP INC) - $7,000
AAPL (Apple) - $9,400 (they were down like 6% yesterday and I couldn't find any good reasons why they dropped, so I bought some)
OA (Orbital ATK) - $17,500

Friar

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #8 on: January 29, 2016, 09:59:14 AM »
I've put some into 3M.

Because...MMM.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2016, 05:13:59 PM »
I'm winning :D

zephyr911

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #10 on: January 31, 2016, 08:43:16 PM »
I'm winning :D
My entire play is speculative based on news that'll come out late next week. We'll talk then. ;)

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #11 on: February 03, 2016, 03:48:17 PM »
ADSK Auto Desk kept falling in price for multiple days, I kept buying more whenever it dropped, today it went up 8% and I made $3,000, this stock simulation stuff is easy, I bet tomorrow one of my stocks will drop 20% in value

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #12 on: February 03, 2016, 03:51:42 PM »
Sadly 2birds1stones only stock purchase, DUST just dropped 24% today!

Cougar

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2016, 08:33:18 AM »

 i joined, i'm leeholsen on it.

 i figured that no one on this board believes that you can know where the market is going in the next 6 to 12 months and either save your money by waiting it out or make money so this game will show if my ability to read macro economics into the stock market is right. i believe we are within 12 months from a recession, maybe less and unless QE4 comes around most stocks are going to lose money this year because 85% of stocks follow the market.

 SO, much like in my personal portfolio; i'm shorting the market and since it's play money; i'm 100% short; i'm less in reality but still shorting.

 so, now everyone on mmm forums can see in results if i am right.

GuitarStv

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2016, 09:09:26 AM »
Can we invest in buttcoin?

zephyr911

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #15 on: February 05, 2016, 09:32:32 AM »
Can we invest in buttcoin?
I prefer DogeCoin myself.


Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #16 on: February 05, 2016, 11:59:10 AM »
my portfolio is currently $99,500,
S&P 500 is currently at $1882 and it was able to get 52.53 shares, $1882 x 52.53 = $98,861

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2016, 12:50:32 PM »

Looks like this didn't go anywhere since the last post was on 2/5; but i'm currently the only one in the green this year and am in first place; because i shorted the mkt both in the simulator and in real life.

zephyr911

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2016, 12:56:41 PM »

Looks like this didn't go anywhere since the last post was on 2/5; but i'm currently the only one in the green this year and am in first place; because i shorted the mkt both in the simulator and in real life.
Well, I'm half invested and I hadn't thought of any other good ideas for the other $50K.
I too am echoing my game play IRL, and it's down, but I remain confident in its long-term prospects. Earnings/div announcement was postponed from today till about two weeks from now, still expecting a pop. And if not, still a viable winner.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2016, 01:19:49 PM »
Personally, I'm absolutely not echoing my game play IRL. That would be crazy, I'm was winning for a long time though

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2016, 01:22:32 PM »
I have 2 real estate stocks that are -20% and -25% returns.... and a 3rd that is +7%
crazy

zephyr911

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2016, 01:23:54 PM »
Personally, I'm absolutely not echoing my game play IRL. That would be crazy, I'm was winning for a long time though
In my case it's because I don't do much individual stock research and only had enough info to make what I considered to be one informed decision about a short-term investment. If I hadn't had that, I wouldn't be playing.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #22 on: February 26, 2016, 09:39:29 AM »
I'm winning again :D

2Birds1Stone

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #23 on: February 26, 2016, 09:43:27 AM »
I'm winning again :D

I'm winning! The goal is to get to $0 right?

zephyr911

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #24 on: February 26, 2016, 09:43:47 AM »
I'm winning at life. ;)

AmandaS1989

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #25 on: February 26, 2016, 01:36:13 PM »
I'm a month late but I'm here. I just decided to split it between VTI and VOO. Let's see how this goes.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #26 on: February 26, 2016, 01:50:57 PM »
I'm a month late but I'm here. I just decided to split it between VTI and VOO. Let's see how this goes.
You can choose those boring funds if you want, personally I use them for my actual investing. But this is a game so why not have some fun? I'm already measuring how the S&P 500 funds do to see if anyone can beat the market.

AmandaS1989

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #27 on: February 26, 2016, 01:55:12 PM »
Well I haven't started investing personally yet as I still have some debt to get out from so I figure this will be good practice of setting it and leaving it alone. How long does the game run for? I might sell some and buy something riskier later.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #28 on: February 26, 2016, 02:24:31 PM »
Well I haven't started investing personally yet as I still have some debt to get out from so I figure this will be good practice of setting it and leaving it alone. How long does the game run for? I might sell some and buy something riskier later.
You can do whatever you'd like, game ends April 25 and I'll restart it if I'm still interested, or else someone else will probably restart it

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #29 on: April 23, 2016, 12:30:18 PM »
Question: Does the game end when markets close april 25th?

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #30 on: April 25, 2016, 09:11:40 AM »
Question: Does the game end when markets close april 25th?
Yep, afterwards someone can start a new game if they'd like
Currently there are 3 of us at a gain of 7-8%, one of us will likely win.
AS1989 is at +7.87%
I'm at +7.31%
Comar is at +7.11%
4 people have not bought any stocks and thus at +0%
Stevez32 is at -3.27%
Leeholsen is at -4.72%
JefferyBlaisdell is at -11.6%
and last by far is 2birds1stone at -51.81%

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #31 on: April 25, 2016, 09:19:22 AM »
However, if someone would of instead just invested in the S&P 500 for the duration of this contest, they would be at +9.24% and would be in the lead, so of the 7 of us that bought stocks, 3 of us were close to matching the market, yet beat by the market, and 4 of us were not even close. This assures me that picking stocks is too risky and to just go with the market.

AmandaS1989

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #32 on: April 25, 2016, 09:25:23 AM »
The best part is I just bought the stock then left it the hell alone. This just reinforces my plan for when I can start my own IRA and brokerage accounts with Vanguard.

Pooplips

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #33 on: April 25, 2016, 09:51:21 AM »
Commenting to follow.

Kroaler

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #34 on: April 25, 2016, 10:42:11 AM »
Man,
I found this thread too late. Maybe I can get in on the next go round.

forummm

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #35 on: April 25, 2016, 10:45:41 AM »
I'm in for the restart. Is that today?

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #36 on: April 25, 2016, 10:55:08 AM »
I def want in on the next game as well.  I was in a similar competition in high school and it was fun as hell talking trash and making fun of people who lost a lot.

arebelspy

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #37 on: April 25, 2016, 11:29:29 AM »
However, if someone would of instead just invested in the S&P 500 for the duration of this contest, they would be at +9.24% and would be in the lead, so of the 7 of us that bought stocks, 3 of us were close to matching the market, yet beat by the market, and 4 of us were not even close. This assures me that picking stocks is too risky and to just go with the market.

So ALL 11 underperformed the index you were comparing to?

Sheesh, you'd think on average, on such a short timeframe, half of you would beat it.

Wouldn't surprise me if next time all 11 beat it.  Or 2.  or 7.  A timeframe so short is just random.  You can beat it over a short timeframe, just not reliably, over and over.

I don't think this was enough to draw any conclusions, but it is amusing.  :)
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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #38 on: April 25, 2016, 11:31:59 AM »
I'll start a new one tomorrow

AmandaS1989

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #39 on: April 26, 2016, 07:22:59 AM »
Let us know when its up.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #40 on: April 26, 2016, 09:02:03 AM »
The Fund we used to measure us all against, the S&P 500, did better than anyone else, with +9.74%
It looks like AS1989 took 1st place with +7.65%, she won by buying 2 index funds, a Vanguard S&P 500 fund and a Vanguard total stock market fund.
Comar got 2nd with +7.31%, he had invested in LinkedIn and Time Warner
I took 3rd with +7.15%, I made 18 trades, but my most profitable ones were AutoDesk(+24%) and Gentex Corp(+19%)
AJColeman joined late and took 4th with +2.72%
5 people didn't buy any stocks
Stevez32 had -2.19%, he invested in mcdonalds and an Apple short
LeeHolsen had -4.58%, he shorted the S&P 500, statistically(historically) this will lose a majority of the time, and this is just another statistic
JefferyBlaisdell had -12.83%, he invested in TerraForm Global Inc
2Birds1Stone had -51.52%, he invested in Dx Dly Gold Min Shs, he also tried to short the same fund, and did a cover on it once

I've started MMM Contest 2, to join, make an account at Investopedia.com, then go to Investopedia.com/simulator/game, click join game, search for MMM Contest 2 in containing words, then click join. no password. Good Luck everyone!

Also, I'm adding a new rule, that you are no longer allowed to invest in indexes, only stocks, I will be measuring the S&P 500 to see how we do against it.
Currently the S&P 500 is valued at $2086.36, with the $100,000 starting amount that is 47.93 shares. Who will win? Who will beat the market? Who will lose 50% of their portfolio? Lets find out!
« Last Edit: April 26, 2016, 06:45:23 PM by Jeremy E. »

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #41 on: April 26, 2016, 09:15:33 AM »
The Fund we used to measure us all against, the S&P 500, did better than anyone else, with +9.74%
It looks like AS1989 took 1st place with +7.65%, she won by buying 2 index funds, a Vanguard S&P 500 fund and a Vanguard total stock market fund.
Comar got 2nd with +7.31%, he had invested in LinkedIn and Time Warner
I took 3rd with +7.15%, I made 18 trades, but my most profitable ones were AutoDesk(+24%) and Gentex Corp(+19%)
AJColeman joined late and took 4th with +2.72%
5 people didn't buy any stocks
Stevez32 had -2.19%, he invested in mcdonalds and an Apple short
LeeHolsen had -4.58%, he shorted the S&P 500, statistically(historically) this will lose a majority of the time, and this is just another statistic
JefferyBlaisdell had -12.83%, he invested in TerraForm Global Inc
2Birds1Stone had -51.52%, he invested in Dx Dly Gold Min Shs, he also tried to short the same fund, and did a cover on it once

I've started MMM Contest 2, to join, make an account at Investopedia.com, then go to Investopedia.com/simulator/game, click join game, search for MMM Contest 2 in containing words, then click join. Good Luck everyone!

Also, I'm adding a new rule, that you are no longer allowed to invest in indexes, only stocks, I will be measuring the S&P 500 to see how we do against it.
Currently the S&P 500 is valued at $2086.36, with the $100,000 starting amount that is 47.93 shares. Who will win? Who will beat the market? Who will lose 50% of their portfolio? Lets find out!

This is a good reminder to all.  The "top" performer under performed the market by better than 2%.  The game seems fun, with not real money, but also enforces that  most will not beat the market.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #42 on: April 26, 2016, 09:20:10 AM »
No indexes? So does that mean just individual stocks only?

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #43 on: April 26, 2016, 09:38:14 AM »
No indexes? So does that mean just individual stocks only?
Yes, and I will compare everyone to the S&P 500 index at the end

AmandaS1989

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #44 on: April 26, 2016, 09:55:29 AM »
Challenge accepted. I'll have to do some research tonight.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #45 on: April 26, 2016, 11:58:50 AM »
Already bought 11 stocks and am down to about $17,000, will probably buy 2 more stocks and then hold for the duration

arebelspy

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #46 on: April 26, 2016, 12:16:00 PM »
Hah, I missed the word "to" in that sentence on first reading.
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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #47 on: April 26, 2016, 01:42:57 PM »
Hah, I missed the word "to" in that sentence on first reading.
Not down quite that far, yet.

Jeremy E.

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #48 on: April 27, 2016, 10:24:05 AM »
BUY BUY BUY! I found some good stocks, you guys are going down!

forummm

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Re: I challenge you to a stock simulation challenge
« Reply #49 on: April 27, 2016, 10:27:48 AM »
The limitations of the system are a little irritating. The commissions are pretty expensive and you can't go short options (such as covered calls). And the system seems to be slow to trade. Maybe they are using delayed data. And you have limits on how much of something you can own or trade in a day. If you're a stock picker, you'd be very limited by the inability to capitalize on something really undervalued. And having to do the trades over multiple days increases commissions.