Author Topic: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals  (Read 177603 times)

arebelspy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #350 on: January 04, 2017, 08:00:17 AM »
Got it.  Good luck! :)
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

FIreDrill

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #351 on: January 04, 2017, 12:07:33 PM »
Looks like we met our 2017 goals but I am not confident that 2018 will be the same.  We went through a move and 3 job transitions between the two of us this year.  We also moved to an HCOL area where our housing expenses have significantly increased.  The good news is our salaries have increased by around 21% and there is much greater potential for salary growth where we are now.

IF we can continue to meet our goals it will most likely be driven by a hot stock market or the crazy real estate market we are currently in.  I guess only time will tell.  :)



Date    Added Per Year       Total Estimated       Year over year Gain    Total Actual
               Estimated                                               

Year             
2014       $60,000                $106,700                    $62,200              $106,700
2015       $60,000                $177,869                    $96,666              $203,468
2016       $65,000                $259,141                    $72,907              $276,375
2017       $65,000                $345,859                    $91,676              $368,051
2018       $70,000                $443,721
2019       $70,000                $548,140
2020       $80,000                $670,226
2021       $80,000                $800,491
2022       $90,000                $950,154
2023       $90,000                $1,109,844
2024       $100,000              $1,290,904
« Last Edit: May 28, 2018, 12:01:35 PM by FIreDrill »

dreams_and_discoveries

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #352 on: January 08, 2017, 04:29:08 AM »
I'm very impressed with all these targets, although I've been monitoring my NW for a few years, this is the first time I've actually set myself targets. He we go...

End 2015 actual 393,000

And targets for the future
2016   498,000   
2017   608,000   
2018   723,000   
2019   843,000   
2020   968,000

I've got 550k for end of 2016, a good 50k above target (although lots of this is due to the devaluing of the pound)

2016 target is now increased to 670k.

skip207

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #353 on: January 08, 2017, 02:45:50 PM »
Realistic targets for me:
2020-500k
2025-750k
2030-1m FIRE!

Secretly Saving

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #354 on: January 08, 2017, 04:39:49 PM »
We're shooting for about a $200k increase in net worth for 2017. 
Huge, I know, but I think with some extra focus, it will be attainable.
   

catccc

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #355 on: January 10, 2017, 01:33:19 PM »
My February 2014 post:
we are at $474 at the end of 2013.

Hoping to reach $570K by the end of 2014

Not sure what to expect after that, but here's a guess:

2015: $680K
2016: $800K
2017: $925K
2018: $1,055K
2019: $1,190K
2020: $1,330K  I'll be 41

Update, not quite as far along as I'd like, but not for lack of trying.  We were awfully close to $570K at the end of 2014.  ($568K, to be exact.)  But 2015 ended at only $606K.  The goal for 2016 is now $680K, so we are about a full year behind.  I want to revamp the schedule to reflect this, but I also don't want to acknowledge that $1.33M in 2020 is quite a stretch...

2016 Ending NW $711K
Goals:
2017: $815
2018: $945
2019: $1,075 (I turn 40 this year!)
2020: $1,210 (I'll be 41)
2021: $1,350 (I'll be 42)


CupcakeGuru

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #356 on: January 20, 2017, 07:20:52 AM »

I love the idea of having somewhere to look back in a couple of years.

Here's mine and Mr. Cupcakes NW goal at year end. It does not include the house.
2015: 523k
2016: 600k
2017: 683k
2018: 773k
2019: 870k
2020: 974k
2021: 1,086k
2022: 1,205k

Jan 2 2017
Ended 2016 at 640k! 40 grand ahead of projections!
Thank you mustaches!

NICE!

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #357 on: January 22, 2017, 10:51:12 PM »
Jan 1, 2015: $235k
Jan 1, 2016: $300k
Jan 1, 2017: $375k
Jan 1, 2018: $475k
Jan 1, 2019: $600k (I view this as a low FI #, one I could achieve if I really wanted to stop working.)

That's what I posted a couple of years ago. I'm a bit off course, as I am projecting $70k in savings this year. Assuming no market returns, that puts us at $420k. Assuming a really strong year, we probably fall short of $475k. I'm going to tone it down to $450k and also bump the following years a bit. The $100k then $125k jump between 17-18 and 18-19 were too aggressive. $600k is my low FI number, so it looks like we're shooting for 2020-2021.

Jan 1, 2017: $350k
Jan 1, 2018: $450k (would require additional savings or $30k in market returns)
Jan 1, 2019: $500k (income will drop)
Jan 1, 2020: $550k
Jan 1, 2021: $600k

We currently give more than 10%. I'm wondering whether we should scale it back to 10% until we reach the low FI #. The argument for this is that we should shore up our financial security and then focus on helping others. The argument against is that we are still able-bodied, have high salaries, and people still need help today. I'm currently mulling over these thoughts.

TheFirstMan

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #358 on: March 18, 2017, 05:18:22 AM »
Currently, investments and cash is 249K.

Home value is about 280K, with 140K owed.

So net worth of 249K + 280K - 140K = 389K

01/01/16...389K
01/01/17...440K
01/01/18...533K
01/01/19...614K
01/01/20...725K
01/01/21...804K (of which about 360K is home equity and the house is paid off)

This is working from assumptions about inflation and our spending and income that are pretty pessimistic, as well as that we put an addition on the house. So if the market is reasonable, our spending is less, our income is up, inflation is low, and/or we don't do an addition, these could be upped but a significant percent.

Needing to update a bit here...we are halfway through an addition, and our income situation changed.

Today

Cash and liquid accounts: 80K. Of this, home addition and other capital projects are 37K+8K+10K = 55K, leaving 25K actually.

Investments: 293K

Home value is actually now at least 275K (and likely a fair bit more after the improvements, as much as 350K), with 200K owed. Will likely pull out equity up to 80% and deploy more productively.

So net worth of 24K + 293K + 75K = 393K

With new savings goal of 5K/month (conservative) and a real rate of return of 3% (also conservative), keeping the home equity at just 75K I estimate...

Future:

01/01/18...440K
01/01/19...511K
01/01/20...584K
01/01/21...660K
01/01/22...736K
01/01/23...817K
01/01/24...900K
« Last Edit: March 18, 2017, 05:20:27 AM by TheFirstMan »

afuera

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #359 on: March 20, 2017, 08:39:27 AM »
It took us 2 years to go from -20K to 105K and for that first year we had not even learned The Way of The Mustache.
We currently down to 1 income so hopefully big lofty net worth goals will help us kick it up a notch
EOY             NW plan        NW Actual
2015              $100K             110K
2016              $175K
2017              $275K
2018              $400K
2019              $550K
2020              $725K
2021              $875K
2022              $1.0M
EOY             NW plan        NW Actual
2015              $100K             110K
2016              $175K             188K
2017              $300K
2018              $450K
2019              $625K
2020              $825K
2021              $1.025M
2022              $1.225M (FI)

Whoops, I never came back and update this at EOY.
Hubs was unemployed for 10 months in 2016 but we were still able to meet our NW goal (which shows they weren't lofty enough)!
Updated our targets going forward.  These are definitely stretch goals since our current plan is FIRE in 2025.

recklesslysober

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #360 on: March 20, 2017, 06:20:30 PM »
Following for inspiration. :)

My numbers (end of year):

2015: -$133K
2016: -$111K

2017: -$69K
2018: -$29K
2019: $11K
2020: $51K
2021: $91K

frugalfanny

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #361 on: March 20, 2017, 06:52:31 PM »
January 2015: $11k
January 2016: $27k
January 2017: $45k
January 2018: $62k
January 2023: $177k
January 2028: $280k

A reminder to try harder...

I'm already past January 2018's goal so I guess I need to make some updates.

January 2015: $11k
January 2016: $27k
January 2017: $45k 58k
January 2018: $62k 80k
January 2023: $177k 200k
January 2028: $280k 313k

Simpli-Fi

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #362 on: March 20, 2017, 08:24:34 PM »

August 2016: $756k

Short term goal August 2017: $900k

New kid on the way so I don't know how this will change things.
New kid is here ,and real estate taxes are expensive this year, but the market is killing it.
December 2016: $859k

Goals
August 2017: $1M
If I can stay employed
August 2018: $1.25M
March 2017: $1M
5 months earlier than expected
December 2017: $1.2M

cantgrowone

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #363 on: March 27, 2017, 02:07:17 PM »
Hi there. I'm late to the game here but YNAB helped me pull my old records. Future projections are not based on any math.

All records are from January and includes house value.

2015: $145k   
2016: $207k   Added: $62k
2017: $291k   Added: $84k
2018: $400k
2019: $550k
2020: $700k
2025: $1,200k

afuera

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #364 on: March 27, 2017, 03:01:44 PM »
Hi there. I'm late to the game here but YNAB helped me pull my old records. Future projections are not based on any math.

All records are from January and includes house value.

2015: $145k   
2016: $207k   Added: $62k
2017: $291k   Added: $84k
2018: $400k
2019: $550k
2020: $700k
2025: $1,200k

Welcome!  You have a little bit of a head start on me but we are on pretty similar timelines (depending on how conservative or optimistic I am with assumptions).  Good luck!

zinnie

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #365 on: March 28, 2017, 08:42:55 PM »
NW: $433,000
Goal: $1.1 million by August of 2020.

Stretch is to do it in 6 years, or 5. Mint keeps telling me I'm about a year ahead so we will see!

Looking back on this post from 3.5 years ago is crazy. I am way ahead, almost at the net worth goal now, and will hit that number liquid more than a year before my old net worth goal. I don't even understand the math, but I'll take it! Once you get on the right track, it really does snowball :)

dogboyslim

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #366 on: April 05, 2017, 04:16:27 PM »
I have a current plan, lets see how it works.  Here's a bit of history and my future projections assuming I keep working.  This includes my Property which is ~$450k as estimated by Mint/Zillow, so take with a grain of salt.  I know my target numbers are higher than most.  Annual Expense target will be 75-80k off a 3% WR, and I want a cushion for a 20% market downturn.  $3.3M (80k/.03/.8) or so as my min FIRE number of invested assets, or 3.75 ish total.  Our increases look like they will stay around 200k a year assuming 6% returns and college outflows as targeted.  If market does better than my conservative returns, I may shove off earlier.

3/2014: $1.3
3/2015: $1.5
3/2016: $1.67
3/2017: $1.95 (Currently 42)
Forecast:
3/2018: $2.0
3/2019: $2.2
3/2020: $2.38
3/2021: $2.58
3/2022: $2.8
3/2023: $3.0
3/2024: $3.2
3/2025: $3.5 (Early FIRE Date @ 50)
3/2026: $3.7
3/2027: $3.9
3/2028: $4.2
3/2029: $4.5
3/2030: $4.7 (Late FIRE Date @55)
« Last Edit: April 06, 2017, 08:27:39 AM by dogboyslim »

webguy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #367 on: April 20, 2017, 12:47:53 PM »
I have a current plan, lets see how it works.  Here's a bit of history and my future projections assuming I keep working.  This includes my Property which is ~$450k as estimated by Mint/Zillow, so take with a grain of salt.  I know my target numbers are higher than most.  Annual Expense target will be 75-80k off a 3% WR, and I want a cushion for a 20% market downturn.  $3.3M (80k/.03/.8) or so as my min FIRE number of invested assets, or 3.75 ish total.  Our increases look like they will stay around 200k a year assuming 6% returns and college outflows as targeted.  If market does better than my conservative returns, I may shove off earlier.

3/2014: $1.3
3/2015: $1.5
3/2016: $1.67
3/2017: $1.95 (Currently 42)
Forecast:
3/2018: $2.0
3/2019: $2.2
3/2020: $2.38
3/2021: $2.58
3/2022: $2.8
3/2023: $3.0
3/2024: $3.2
3/2025: $3.5 (Early FIRE Date @ 50)
3/2026: $3.7
3/2027: $3.9
3/2028: $4.2
3/2029: $4.5
3/2030: $4.7 (Late FIRE Date @55)

Please don't take this the wrong way, but you're 42 with almost $2M and you're choosing to spend the next 13 years of your life working full time? That's 13 years you're not gonna get back!

boarder42

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #368 on: April 20, 2017, 02:30:26 PM »
I'm in just going to do invested NW

8/11/16 - 378k - current
8/11/17 - 512k
8/11/18 - 663k
8/11/19 - 829k
8/11/20 - 1MM

thanks to some good gains and some early wealth transfer i'll hit 512k by the end of April - 3.5 months ahead of schedule.  will update projections then.

Secretly Saving

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #369 on: April 21, 2017, 02:41:25 PM »
We're shooting for about a $200k increase in net worth for 2017. 
Huge, I know, but I think with some extra focus, it will be attainable.
   

Well, it's April and incredibly, we hit this goal.  I have no idea what to set as the next one.  I'd like to see at least another 50k over the rest of the year. 

Bateaux

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #370 on: April 21, 2017, 09:19:40 PM »
Looks like we'll have lots of company on the Race to 2M and Race to 3M threads soon!  Well done everyone.

FIreDrill

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #371 on: April 22, 2017, 09:51:17 PM »
Been on a roll this year so I thought I'd update my numbers.  Decided to edit my tracking a little bit as well.



Date      Added YTD        Total Estimated          Added YTD     Total Actual   Percentage of YTD
              Estimated               Actual                                                                  Goal Reached               

Year End                            
2014                                   106,700                                         106,700   
2015         71,169               177,869                   96,768           203,468             135.97%
2016         81,272               259,141                   72,907           276,375               89.71%
2017         86,718               345,859                   41,625           318,000               48.00%
2018         97,862               443,721         
2019         104,419             548,140         
2020         122,086             670,226         
2021         130,265             800,491         
2022         149,663             950,154         
2023         159,690             1,109,844         
2024         181,060             1,290,904         


We are nearly half way through our 2017 goal already.  Hoping to keep up the momentum for the rest of the year.

« Last Edit: April 24, 2017, 11:10:17 AM by FrozenBits »

facepalm

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #372 on: April 29, 2017, 10:35:13 AM »
Been reading through all the posts on this thread. some great stories here.

A year and a half ago I was sitting on less than 24K, which included a paid off car. Could not stick to a budget. Have had a nagging worry about my retirement and having enough money for as long as I can remember. Never managed money well.

Mom passed away last year and something clicked. Started looking into investing, but kept my inheritance check in savings while I did my research. Discovered Bogleheads, jlcollinsnh, and MMM. Bogleheads kept me from making the mistake of putting my money into a managed account. Thank god. Since then I have done the MMM makeover, cut my spending, and put all my money to work into Vanguard funds.

Currently, I am maxing out my 403(b), My 457(b), and my Roth to the tune of 54.5K. Also have a state pension which can be taken as a lump sum should I separate from employment. I only recently (this week) found out about the lump sum. My savings rate is 80%, including the pension contribution and the employer match.

Jan-16   23,769
Jun-16   45,604
Dec-16   119,694
Apr-17   255,873

Goals:

Dec-17 300,000
Jun-19 400,000
Dec-21 500,000

At the point I reach 500K I'll decide whether or not to keep going. The plan I came up with two months ago was to leave employment with a 4,000 per month pension plus 750,000 in investments which I would never have to touch. To get the 4,000 per month I have to work to 2024. I can take less per month and retire earlier.

Also planning on relocating to a more tax-friendly state (I'm in CA) so I have to buy/finance a house. Currently renting/sharing.

Thoughts?
« Last Edit: April 29, 2017, 10:39:58 AM by facepalm »

Abe

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #373 on: April 30, 2017, 07:42:01 PM »

At the point I reach 500K I'll decide whether or not to keep going. The plan I came up with two months ago was to leave employment with a 4,000 per month pension plus 750,000 in investments which I would never have to touch. To get the 4,000 per month I have to work to 2024. I can take less per month and retire earlier.

Also planning on relocating to a more tax-friendly state (I'm in CA) so I have to buy/finance a house. Currently renting/sharing.

Thoughts?

You've got a good plan. If you take a lower monthly pension amount now and let your $750k grow, it'll quickly reach the point where a 4% (or less) withdrawal will make up the difference to get to $4k/month. However, if you move to a cheaper area you may not need the $4k budget.

dogboyslim

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #374 on: May 01, 2017, 08:16:08 AM »
Please don't take this the wrong way, but you're 42 with almost $2M and you're choosing to spend the next 13 years of your life working full time? That's 13 years you're not gonna get back!

I don't take it the wrong way.  Working isn't that bad, and if I follow that path I'll still be retired at 55 with equal income to my high paying job.  I also want to do things like traveling with my wife, and that will be easier with kids out of the house, so even if I retired earlier, I'm not sure I'd get to take advantage of retirement until the kids get a bit older.  I often consider if I should quit now or scale back my hours, but my career is one where part-time is not really a thing, and once out it would be very difficult to get back in.

boarder42

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #375 on: May 01, 2017, 11:01:22 AM »
Update. Hit 3.5 months early. Hopefully it always works that way and in 2.5 years we hit 1MM

8/11/16 - 378k - current
8/11/17 - 512k
5/1/2017 - 514k
5/1/18 - 665k
5/1/19 - 831k
5/1/20 - 1MM

Pennycounter

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #376 on: May 01, 2017, 01:33:09 PM »
I love spreadsheets and tracking.  Our NW is exclusive of our primary residence value since we aren't planning to sell.

2016 -- $518K (actual)
2017 -- $572K (actual end of April)
2017 -- $650K
2018 -- $730K
2019 -- $810K
2020 -- $900K
2025 -- $1.2 MM
2030 -- $1.5 MM (Full FI, me 52, DH 59, DD #1 graduates HS)

This is all a bit of a WAG, haha. I'm also planning to leave my job this June so we will be a one income household, so projections after June of 2017 include only my husband's 401 (k), + matching, and market gains. This will definitely be impacted if the market doesn't keep up with the super sweet recent returns. 

Carrie

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #377 on: May 20, 2017, 09:33:02 AM »
Current NW 6/14 = $551k
YE 2014 goal = $600k
YE 2015 goal = $700k
YE 2016 goal = $810k
YE 2017 goal = $950k
Have no idea if this is realistic -- currently saving $27k to retirement/yr and paying down the mortgage by about $10-$15k per year, adding $3600 to college accounts per year (about to increase this as we add another child), so the remainder will have to be from market gains.

We're just a touch behind, probably because I pulled these numbers out of my ass.
Current NW is right around the end of 2016 goal, so maybe 6 months behind.  I am guessing that by the end of this year we'll be more like $850k than $950k.
We paid off the mortgage in January and will probably get $33k into retirement & $4500 into college savings this year. We're also going to work hard to max the HSA this year.  Right now what we had been paying towards the mortgage will go towards home maintenance/improvements & a vacation.  Maybe in a year or two that money can go towards after tax savings. 

facepalm

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #378 on: May 20, 2017, 10:37:55 AM »

At the point I reach 500K I'll decide whether or not to keep going. The plan I came up with two months ago was to leave employment with a 4,000 per month pension plus 750,000 in investments which I would never have to touch. To get the 4,000 per month I have to work to 2024. I can take less per month and retire earlier.

Also planning on relocating to a more tax-friendly state (I'm in CA) so I have to buy/finance a house. Currently renting/sharing.

Thoughts?

You've got a good plan. If you take a lower monthly pension amount now and let your $750k grow, it'll quickly reach the point where a 4% (or less) withdrawal will make up the difference to get to $4k/month. However, if you move to a cheaper area you may not need the $4k budget.

I ran the numbers again and discovered that if I work to 2024 I actually will see 4500 per month. I can definitely retire earlier, since I doubt I'll need that much per month and can always take SSI early if I really need the income. I now estimate the longest I need to stay on the job is 5 years, or 'till 2022 (age 62). At that point I'll have around $550K invested (which does not include pension funds), which I'll just let sit and grow.

I now have to find the sweet spot for pension withdrawals; the point in the timeline that gives me the most time and most money per month. I haven't attempted to put a value on my time yet; Once I do I may end up wanting to retire even earlier.

I'm now considering a side hustle--have a few ideas--that if even moderately successful will allow me to leave paid employment even earlier. When I started working toward FIRE i assumed I'd have to stick it out till age 70; but the longer I work at this the younger I will be when I actually do FIRE. 70-->68-->65-->62-->???

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #379 on: May 20, 2017, 12:58:24 PM »
Are you guys including your home equity in your net worth figures?

How about pensions?

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #380 on: May 20, 2017, 01:25:26 PM »
Are you guys including your home equity in your net worth figures?

How about pensions?

I don't include home equity (I rent). I do include my pension contribution but not my employer's portion. If I exit employment I can roll my contributions over into an IRA. The thing that sucks about California is that we cannot rollover our employers contributions; If we leave STRS they keep the money. Probably has something to do with that 71 billion unfunded liability. If I could roll both over I would retire in two years.

I do not include pension contributions in my long term goals/projections, as I'll probably end up taking the pension.

Carrie

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #381 on: May 21, 2017, 11:22:52 AM »
I use the current cash value of the pension, for example if we rolled it over, it is worth $25,000 (that's the number I use). If we wait for 20 years and start to draw it, I'm not totally sure of the pay out. I guess if I knew that number I'd do the formula as pp poster says.
I include home equity in networth, because it is a part of networth. I do not use home equity in fire calculation - I only use invested assets, as we will always need a place to live.

MoneyRx

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #382 on: May 21, 2017, 06:07:28 PM »
Had this written out for a little while, but wanted to make it more permanent and have a place to check on my progress.
Recent grad, finishing a lower paying residency half way through 2015 and will be expecting a 6 figure income starting in June/July. 10 year plan, very rough estimate and not assuming pay increases/pay decreases(possibly coming in my field!). Will update as needed.

Today: -17k
End of:
2015: 15k
2016: 70k
2017: 135k
2018: 215k
2019: 295k
2020: 385k
2021: 480k
2022: 585k
2023: 700k
2024: 825k
2025: 960k (FIRE)

Ended 2015 with about 47k, new goal for 2016 is 100k. =)

Ended 2016 with 95k and keeping the same FIRE date for now, came up with new projections that should be more accurate:
Today: 136k (as of 5/1/17)
End of:
2015: 47k (actual)
2016: 95k (actual)
2017: 163k
2018: 233k
2019: 330k
2020: 423k
2021: 522k
2022: 629k
2023: 743k
2024: 866k
2025: 998k (FIRE)

skip207

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #383 on: May 22, 2017, 05:55:13 AM »
What kind of NW growth PA do people use on their calculations? 

My FIRE target is 1MM and currently have this date set as 2025.  Current NW c.415k.

Am I being a bit cautious with that date? 

I know what my contributions are as they are pretty much fixed other than house prices but the growth on the actual pot is the bit I think I am not really getting right.

Of course its always good to under estimate things so I don't mind too much but I have a feeling I am a good bit under, what do you guys think?

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #384 on: May 22, 2017, 04:09:24 PM »
What kind of NW growth PA do people use on their calculations? 

My FIRE target is 1MM and currently have this date set as 2025.  Current NW c.415k.

Am I being a bit cautious with that date? 

I know what my contributions are as they are pretty much fixed other than house prices but the growth on the actual pot is the bit I think I am not really getting right.

Of course its always good to under estimate things so I don't mind too much but I have a feeling I am a good bit under, what do you guys think?
I do 5 different projections.  The most pessimistic is 0% growth, contributions plus principle only.  The one I use as my expected is 5%, then I have a few higher up to 11% for shits and giggles.  I think having the 0% growth helps ground my expectations.

skip207

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #385 on: May 23, 2017, 03:35:11 PM »
Ok similar to me maybe then as I do 0% on savings and pensions and investments but 5% on property.
I guess once I clear 750k I can start planning things a bit more.  I want the gap between FI and RE as small as possible you see!
I would like at least a year to plan retirement as it will involve closing my business etc.

beege

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #386 on: June 19, 2017, 09:21:36 AM »
That was quick. Another year went by. I got my google calendar notification so I'm back. Stock market has been on a tear lately so I surpassed my (conservative) goal. Fire # is getting more concrete now. Targeting 1.2 million. I really suck at estimating I've decided. I've now over-estimated and underestimated two years running. The stache is getting a life of its own.

DateGoalActual
June 2014394K
June 2015550K547K
June 2016750K692K
June 2017842K929K
June 20181107K
Dec 20181200KFire

arebelspy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #387 on: June 19, 2017, 09:56:23 AM »
That was quick. Another year went by.

Wow, you went from slight underestimate (-3k) to way under (-58k), which is a bummer, and then you not only, in that one year, caught up that -58 you were behind your projection, you rocketed past that to be +87k past your goal.  What a phenomenal year for your NW (+237k in one year). Phenomenal!
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

beege

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #388 on: June 19, 2017, 05:43:54 PM »
Yup. Not very good at estimating :) Though if I recall correctly from your earlier posts in this thread neither were you :-P

Anyways we've got a trumped up stock market which is making things look rosier than expected. We'll see how long it lasts /shrug

arebelspy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #389 on: June 19, 2017, 05:52:08 PM »
Yup. Not very good at estimating :) Though if I recall correctly from your earlier posts in this thread neither were you :-P

Haha, yeah. I passed my three year "stretch goal" in one year.

Underestimating stache growth (especially when you think you'll be OVERestimating it) is a great feeling.

Quote
Anyways we've got a trumped up stock market which is making things look rosier than expected. We'll see how long it lasts /shrug

There will definitely be a crash at some point. Who knows when.  :)
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, spent some time traveling the world full time and are now settled with three kids.
If you want to know more about us, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
We (rarely) blog at AdventuringAlong.com. Check out our Now page to see what we're up to currently.

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #390 on: June 19, 2017, 06:39:47 PM »
Yup. Not very good at estimating :) Though if I recall correctly from your earlier posts in this thread neither were you :-P

Haha, yeah. I passed my three year "stretch goal" in one year.

Underestimating stache growth (especially when you think you'll be OVERestimating it) is a great feeling.

Quote
Anyways we've got a trumped up stock market which is making things look rosier than expected. We'll see how long it lasts /shrug

There will definitely be a crash at some point. Who knows when.  :)
Well *I'm* certainly not going to try and guess!

FrugalFisherman10

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #391 on: June 21, 2017, 01:33:34 PM »
Ok I want to get in on this too. ARS I like how you laid out the 'goal/underrun format' I'll call it.

I would like to have $1mil Net Worth by age 40.

I'm about to turn 27, so that means I have 13 years to go.
I am at $100k right now, so that means I have $900k to go.
That means I need to increase my NW by $70k per year.

Currently I make around $75k
after tax around $66k-68k
I spend around $25-30k
So I should be increasing my net worth based on savings alone by $36 - 42k per year (assuming no market dips -not a safe assumption)

That's a $28k per year gap at the low end, and $44k gap at the high end.

When put this way, the gap seems huge. I feel like I'm doing pretty good, but in reality, I have a substantial gap to make up each year..with no immediate prospects of how to do it (i.e. I don't own a bunch of rentals, am not trying to skim money through options, but am considering all the above. Also I could just wait till my salary increases and it will probably get a lot easier to close the gap around 35 haha)

Now this assumes:
1) no salary increases - unlikely assumption
2) no market returns - unlikely assumption
3) no change in spending - unlikely assumption (currently I'm single, and doubt that whoever I find to marry can live off of $0 dollars. but at that point the goal posts will likely change anyway. I've picked the $1mil number because it relates to $40k of annual spend, so there is room for increased spending if you look at it that way.)

anyway, it's good to put it out there. And to start thinking about how I can make up that $28k per year gap.

webguy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #392 on: July 03, 2017, 09:27:13 PM »
I want to join in and set myself some public goals so that I'm held accountable.  My goals are:

Current NW:  $420k
Jan 1 2016:  $650k
Jan 1 2017:  $950k
Jan 1 2018:  $1.1M

I need to update my goals!

Current NW:  $1.1M
Jan 1 2017:  $1.25M
Jan 1 2018:  $1.6M
Jan 1 2019:  $2M

Jan 1 2017:  $1.26M

Phew, just made it! I have no idea how 2017 is going to go income-wise, so I'm sticking with my $1.6M goal for now and I'll revisit in 6 months...

Another 6 months have gone by so I'm revisiting to update the goals a little bit..

Current NW:  $1.535M
Jan 1 2018:  $1.75M
Jan 1 2019:  $2.2M

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #393 on: July 04, 2017, 08:00:11 AM »
Ok I want to get in on this too. ARS I like how you laid out the 'goal/underrun format' I'll call it.

I would like to have $1mil Net Worth by age 40.

I'm about to turn 27, so that means I have 13 years to go.
I am at $100k right now, so that means I have $900k to go.
That means I need to increase my NW by $70k per year.

Currently I make around $75k
after tax around $66k-68k
I spend around $25-30k
So I should be increasing my net worth based on savings alone by $36 - 42k per year (assuming no market dips -not a safe assumption)

That's a $28k per year gap at the low end, and $44k gap at the high end.

When put this way, the gap seems huge. I feel like I'm doing pretty good, but in reality, I have a substantial gap to make up each year..with no immediate prospects of how to do it (i.e. I don't own a bunch of rentals, am not trying to skim money through options, but am considering all the above. Also I could just wait till my salary increases and it will probably get a lot easier to close the gap around 35 haha)

Now this assumes:
1) no salary increases - unlikely assumption
2) no market returns - unlikely assumption
3) no change in spending - unlikely assumption (currently I'm single, and doubt that whoever I find to marry can live off of $0 dollars. but at that point the goal posts will likely change anyway. I've picked the $1mil number because it relates to $40k of annual spend, so there is room for increased spending if you look at it that way.)

anyway, it's good to put it out there. And to start thinking about how I can make up that $28k per year gap.
That's the beauty of compound interest. It  will do the heavy lifting for you. Keep doing what you're doing and eventually your investments will out earn you. The "gap" will take care of itself. You're off to an excellent start,

skip207

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #394 on: July 11, 2017, 01:33:34 PM »
Revised our plans over the last 6 months and also added some growth.  All my previous numbers have been based on 0% (i.e tracking inflation).  Now I am using 2% (over inflation).

This has taken some years off our FIRE date. 

I think we could hit 1M in 2025.  Previously I thought 2030.

Then the second part of this analysis that we did was do we *really* need 1M.  The answer is probably not, so we may be FI around 2022/3.  If we could RE in 2023 we would be really happy, but might do a couple more years and work down over that time.


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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #395 on: July 12, 2017, 05:38:50 AM »
Ran across this posting of mine on this thread from quite a few years back and thought I would give an update:

For me, net worth isn't a useful measurement for FI.  That's because I have no debt and don't intend on selling my house, cars, or other household furnishings.

So I'll focus on current assets that can be used to support FI.    I'll assume the market only keeps pace with inflation, i.e, no compounding, so I'll ignore earnings and just list amounts in current dollars.

2013: $580,000
2014: $665,000
2015: $750,000
2016: $835,000
2017: $920,000
2018: $977,000  Assumes wife retires at 70.
2019: $1,034,000
2020: $1,091,000  Assumes I retire at 63.

3.5% withdrawal rate = $38,185 income plus $14,400 wife's SS = $52,285 income.   I'll hold off on my SS until 70 because it will be a much higher than my wife's.  Obviously, if the market does much better than just keeping pace with inflation, I could move my retirement date foreward a couple of years.   If not, not.

For those of you who are younger and want to learn from my mistakes...

We could be retired right now if we had changed our behaviour 10 years ago.

We could have retired 10 or more years ago if we had changed our behavior back in 1988 when I got my first decent paying job.

Actuals:
2015: $1,050,000 we got into the rental property business before this date and the stock investments grew.
          That's 4 years ahead of our estimate!
2016: $1,900,000 regular gains and savings, plus an inheritance.

New estimates:
2017: $2,030,000
2018: $2,200,000 Assumes wife retires at 70, we finish the house we're slow-flipping, and I retire at 60, 2 years ahead of schedule.

Goldy

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #396 on: July 12, 2017, 11:17:47 AM »
I'll play

Current NW $1.4

2008  $50,000
2013  $632,000
2014  $859,000
2015  $924,000
2016  $1,229,000

Goals
2017  $1,500,000
2018  $1,750,000  FI
2019  $2,000,000
2020  $2,300,000  FIRE?
2021  $2,600,000
2022  $2,900,000


chaskavitch

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #397 on: July 12, 2017, 01:49:43 PM »
I have a giant spreadsheet of theoretical future salary increases and retirement account goals already, but I update the values to reflect actual account values at the end of the year, so I don't have a record of what I thought we would have anymore. 

These projected values are a little above what I've calculated with contribution increases and market returns, but I may as well be optimistic :)  I am being incredibly conservative about the increases in NW above and beyond retirement accounts, so it gets a little hand-wavey there anyhow.

Assumptions:
3% salary increase/yr, no bonuses, no promotions
6% market increase/yr
3% yearly contribution increase to 401k, until contribution max is hit

Current NW (including recent tax appraisal house value and mortgage): $272,573
Current retirement account totals: $114,000

End of year NW/retirement goals:
2017: $300,000/$145,000
2018: $355,000/$195,000
2019: $420,000/$250,000
2020: $500,000/$325,000
2021: $575,000/$385,000
2022: $650,000/$475,000

DH wants to retire by 2027 when he turns 40, and according to my projections we'll have almost $1 million in retirement accounts alone by then.  He thinks we'll need $2-$3 million, so with these goals we'll have to step it up a lot to get there. 

We'd also like to buy a house with more property and further out of town, and either rent this one out or sell it, so we're (very slowly) saving toward a down payment for that.

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #398 on: July 16, 2017, 10:57:56 AM »
Goals:

Dec-17 300,000
Jun-19 400,000
Dec-21 500,000
Just checked Personal Capital, and I'm sitting at 273,600. I'll be at 280K August 31, so I will definitely make my 300K goal by the end of the year. I still think 200K in two more years is doable, especially since I'll be able to contribute 36K to my 457b (special catch-up) in the second year.

I just found out that my last check did not have my 403b and 457b contributions taken out, nor did I make a contribution to my pension. IRS rules for teachers now require that I pay my taxes upfront on my final summer check--so my July check is just a lump sum with no deductions. Curses! So I have to modify my contributions to make sure I put 24K into each of my retirement accounts. That will cut my check to nothing, but at least it will mean paying no taxes! I have money saved so can draw from savings if need be.


There will definitely be a crash buying opportunity at some point. Who knows when.  :)

Fixed it for ya. :-}
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 11:10:59 AM by facepalm »

NinetyFour

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Re: Gauntlet: Long Term Net Worth Goals
« Reply #399 on: July 18, 2017, 08:24:42 AM »
These are guesses, but here goes:

NW July 2014:  $404,000
NW July 2015:  $465,000
NW July 2016:  $535,000
NW July 2017:  $615,000
NW July 2018:  $705,000
NW July 2019:  $805,000

I am confident of only the 1st number.  :)

As of tonight, my NW is $473,000, so I have surpassed my goal/guess for July 2015.  I will come back and post revised guesses for future NW values.

I'm not sure where I came up with those previous goals.  Here is my current prediction:

Current NW:  $480,507
January 2016: $570,000
January 2017: $670,000
January 2018: $779,000
July 2018:  $840,000 (and hopefully retirement, as I will hopefully have over $523K free and clear)

Well, I missed my January 2016 prediction, as my NW now stands at $528,717.  Boo.  I think I must tamp down the rest of the predictions as well.  Here is now what my crystal ball tells me:

Jan 2016:  $528,717
Jan 2017:  $630,306
Jan 2018:  $722,663
July 2018:  $784,925 (still when I hope to retire)

I am currently at $612K.  Should be able to reach $630K well before January 2017.

My NW (including house) is now $742,946.  On track to hit my (original) goal of $840K in July 2018, when I will retire.  It's beginning to feel real...and scary...