Author Topic: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!  (Read 2720 times)

soccerluvof4

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Like alot of people I assume I read all sorts of Financial stuff and for the most part well actually always just stay the course. This article kinda made me think though but what if? which is stupid in its own right but what was worse is I always like to read the contrarian views of the comments. Most of the people are just stupid but up to when I read this article there were no real contrarian views. I'm not going back to read the comments and I am not going to change the way I do things BUT since this guy is kinda well known I would like to hear from the people like me but who are a hell of alot smarter to disprove or otherwise on this article so I can wash the taste out of my mouth.
I dont need to hear the obvious about reading stuff and so on because like I said these things dont really bug me but there are some super smart people on here , alot smarter than me that I'd like to here there view points on the whole thing. I know if you say everyday the market is going to crash eventually you will be right because thats what it does. anyhow read and comment if you would as to why you support or disprove these points. ( but read the comments as unless they changed I have never read an article on Marketwatch where so many people agreed). Not sure why I posted this here if Moderator could move to General discussion or where seems more fitting please do.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/father-of-reaganomics-says-get-out-of-the-market-bonds-and-stocks-and-put-your-money-in-cash-2019-02-22?mod=hp_markets
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 05:16:31 AM by soccerluvof4 »

Another Reader

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #1 on: February 24, 2019, 05:40:01 AM »
Quote from article:  "Stockman has been a persistent doomsayer whose forecasts have yet to materialize."  Enough said.

ender

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #2 on: February 24, 2019, 07:34:17 AM »
That guy said the same thing in 2013: https://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/opinion/sunday/sundown-in-america.html

Quote
"Sooner or later — within a few years, I predict — this latest Wall Street bubble, inflated by an egregious flood of phony money from the Federal Reserve rather than real economic gains, will explode, too," Stockman says.

He might be right eventually.  Non-dividend reinvested returns since then:


Quote
Dec. 31, 2019   8.01%
Dec. 31, 2018   -4.38%
Dec. 31, 2017   21.83%
Dec. 31, 2016   11.96%
Dec. 31, 2015   1.38%
Dec. 31, 2014   13.69%
Dec. 31, 2013   32.39%

sol

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #3 on: February 24, 2019, 08:04:08 AM »
What is it in that article that "made you think"?  Because I don't see any new information in there.  It's just another generic "the market is going to crash!" article like a million others that get published year in and year out.

They're citing a perpetual doomsayer, but the doomsayer doesn't actually have anything to say.  He's not highlighting any actionable information, he has no great insight into why "this time it's different", his track record on past predictions is terrible, and there's no reason why his next predictions should ever be more right than wrong.  I could just as easily write an article saying that the market is going to spike 30% this year, and give it just as much support as this one has, and I would at least have some recent history on my side.

As to the commenters agreeing with him, the comment sections are always full of negativity.  Comment sections on pop press articles exist mostly for the purpose of starting arguments that get clicks.  If you weren't a respected and familiar member of this community, I would assume you were the article's author or editor and were just trying get page views by drawing forum members to it.  Even if the mustachian community were to flock to that page and overwhelm the comment section with rational criticisms, the publisher and the author would be thrilled that they finally posted something that got traction somewhere.  You have to remember that half of these market doom articles are troll jobs and the other half are bed wetting.  They just want your attention, and for some reason this one seems to have hooked you. 

My (former) professional career or exploits were sometimes featured in popular press articles, and I was always shocked at how they would take a relatively simple scientific product and try to spin it into something dire and scary.  Then commenters would flood the page with hate mail, calling me a paid government stooge, or "in the pocket of the liberal industrial complex" or  insinuating that my career and my income were somehow dependent on making up climate data to fool all the hard working Americans.  Big city newspaper reporters were better than blogs or news aggregator sites about pitching a straight story, but even they told me that the comment section is deliberately a dumpster fire of bile because that's what draws the ad revenue they need to survive. 

Remember that any for-profit website (or television network) is primarily an advertising delivery service, and what we consider "content" is just the grease that helps their bills get paid by selling ads.  They need clicks, and controversy breeds them.  So, they're just constantly trying to scare you.

JAYSLOL

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #4 on: February 24, 2019, 09:01:58 AM »
Quote from article:  "Stockman has been a persistent doomsayer whose forecasts have yet to materialize."  Enough said.

I saw this article too and this also stood out to me.  I wish that people that get on the news and make stock market predictions instead of being like "I predict the markets gonna crash - get out and hold cash immediately even though i've been a doomer for years" were more like "I predict we need to be prepared for a higher chance of a correction or recession soon, check that your asset allocation matches your risk tolerance, or if you expect to need a large sum of cash in the next couple years consider a CD or high interest savings account specifically for that money.  Don't try to time the market with the rest of your retirement investments, and keep dollar cost averaging if you can".  Their predictions would age much better if they said this kind of thing. 
« Last Edit: February 24, 2019, 09:04:50 AM by JAYSLOL »

Laserjet3051

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #5 on: February 24, 2019, 10:03:18 AM »
stockman...................end of story.

Go take a look at the fund(s) he manages. Thats should allay all of your fears. BTW, both Shiller and Krugman are considered "really smart experts" who have been dead wrong about a lot of important stuff. Hell, in my own professional field, some of the brightest experts are PROVEN wrong as time goes on.

MrThatsDifferent

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #6 on: February 24, 2019, 01:40:10 PM »
I don’t get why the market is going to crash is so scary when we all know it will crash at some point but then it will recover. The only true scary article will be, the market is going to crash and never, ever recover. Then we’re fucked but I’m thinking that we’d have bigger problems happening.

sol

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #7 on: February 24, 2019, 01:47:21 PM »
I don’t get why the market is going to crash is so scary when we all know it will crash at some point but then it will recover. The only true scary article will be, the market is going to crash and never, ever recover. Then we’re fucked but I’m thinking that we’d have bigger problems happening.

That's a good point.  All of these "the market is going to crash" articles are really saying "you should try to time the market" aren't they?  They're recommending that you sell now, wait for the crash, then buy back in afterwards?  That seems to be the unstated subtext. 

For those of us who are buy and holders, what does it matter if the market crashes?  I'm expecting several major market corrections in my remaining decades of life.  I don't intend to sell it all during any of them, so what do I care?

soccerluvof4

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #8 on: February 24, 2019, 02:50:56 PM »
I don’t get why the market is going to crash is so scary when we all know it will crash at some point but then it will recover. The only true scary article will be, the market is going to crash and never, ever recover. Then we’re fucked but I’m thinking that we’d have bigger problems happening.

That's a good point.  All of these "the market is going to crash" articles are really saying "you should try to time the market" aren't they?  They're recommending that you sell now, wait for the crash, then buy back in afterwards?  That seems to be the unstated subtext. 

For those of us who are buy and holders, what does it matter if the market crashes?  I'm expecting several major market corrections in my remaining decades of life.  I don't intend to sell it all during any of them, so what do I care?


No your 100% right in your early post as well as now.  Like i was trying to say and probably just didnt get my point across in most of these articles as you said that comments are filled with Negativity. I was just shocked that when I read it while yes people said that hes been prediciting this for years that no one gave good reasons is all. I know like we all know its going to crash at some point and I have my ammo for that. Maybe I was having a bad day! It just seemed worse to me than others through and through and No your right I didnt put it up to be like them but maybe I needed a face punch!

soccerluvof4

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Re: This Article from Marketwatch is one of the first to really make me think!
« Reply #9 on: February 24, 2019, 02:54:26 PM »
Quote from article:  "Stockman has been a persistent doomsayer whose forecasts have yet to materialize."  Enough said.

I saw this article too and this also stood out to me.  I wish that people that get on the news and make stock market predictions instead of being like "I predict the markets gonna crash - get out and hold cash immediately even though i've been a doomer for years" were more like "I predict we need to be prepared for a higher chance of a correction or recession soon, check that your asset allocation matches your risk tolerance, or if you expect to need a large sum of cash in the next couple years consider a CD or high interest savings account specifically for that money.  Don't try to time the market with the rest of your retirement investments, and keep dollar cost averaging if you can".  Their predictions would age much better if they said this kind of thing.




I have recently started diversifying more with CD and T-Bills with My Cash as well as worked on adjusting my portfolio a bit. Chalk it off as a bad day. Heck i even posted it in the wrong damn category! haha

happyuk

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Even if the market does tank, which at some moment it almost certainly will, then so what? 

It would make a jot of difference to how I invest.  I still want the bulk of my money in productive businesses not cash, or cash equivalents or rubbish like antiques, wine and bitcoin.  I plowed my money into the indexes back in 2009 and I would do exactly the same now.  I don't want my money hoarded in some vault - I want it DOING something.

For the most part I don't disagree with his assertion that the era of easy money has to come to end.  The last crash was precipitated by hoodlums and knaves seeking to make a fast buck on selling shoddy mortgages.  Those kind of people are still with us.  It will up to the Millennial generation to re-build prosperity, and though often maligned as being over-sensitive snowflakes, they take no shit, are far better informed and in many ways their lives have been harder than mine was.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 03:27:47 PM by happyuk »

soccerluvof4

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Even if the market does tank, which at some moment it almost certainly will, then so what? 

It would make a jot of difference to how I invest.  I still want the bulk of my in productive businesses not cash, or any cash equivalents.  I plowed my money into the indexes back in 2009 and I would do exactly the same now - I don't want my money hoarded in some vault - I want it DOING something.

For the most part I don't disagree with his assertion that the era of easy money has to come to end.  The last crash was precipitated by hoodlums and knaves seeking to make a fast buck on selling shoddy mortgages.  Those kind of people are still with us.  It will up to the Millennial generation to re-build prosperity, and though often maligned as being over-sensitive snowflakes, they take no shit, are far better informed and in many ways their lives have been harder than mine was.



I agree with all you said totally!  I for sure would plow everything in the market if we had a drop like that. Actually wouldn't even have to be that bad of a drop. Want as much money working for me as I sleep as they say!

 

Wow, a phone plan for fifteen bucks!