Someone needs to do a "saver's w-4 calculator."
I went and calculated what I think our taxes will be for the year (I was able to estimate to within $10 I think last year), and it looks like we'll be getting $5000 between federal and state. My wife and I both have 0 exemptions, too.
With the calculators I've seen, it seems like no one wants to allow you to enter things like non-taxable (healthcare) income and 401k/IRA contributions. On top of that, standard deductions/exemptions seem to be ignored as well. So while we're very fortunate to be earning six figures gross, our actual AGI is less than half of that.