It depends on the state.
The capital loss deduction reduces AGI. It looks like Virginia starts it's calculations with federal AGI, then
adds and
subtracts some things, neither of which include losses at first glance. The only way to be sure will be to fill out a Virginia return, but just from a quick look, I would say Virginia probably reduces your taxable income by the same amount as the federal capital loss by starting with federal AGI.
Looking at
form 760, if your federal AGI plus additions and minus subtractions (Virginia AGI) is under $11,950, then you don't owe tax, so you could consider targeting $11,950+$3000 = $14,950 instead of $12,400+$3000 = $15,400 of Roth conversions
If your income is above that amount then you get a $930/person
exemption and a standard deduction, which according to the
form 760 instructions for line 11 is $4500 for single filers. So you'll get total deductions of $5430 plus $930 for any additional dependents, so you'll probably end up paying some tax on that conversion if you max out the federal tax free amounts.
Basically, it looks like there's a bit of cliff once you go over $11,950 of Virginia AGI, so if go just $1 over you end up with taxable income of $6521 on which you'll owe $197. If you max the federal standard deduction you'll have $6970 of Virginia taxable income on which you'll owe $219. So you can make an extra $12,400 - $11,950 = $450 conversion and pay $219, a 48.67% marginal tax rate. I would stay under $11,950 of Virginia AGI unless you want to go far over until the Virginia marginal tax rate evens out.
All of this is based only on a cursory look at the
Virginia tax forms and instructions, so you should take a closer look, and probably fill them out with your expected numbers to get a more definite answer.
I'm also not familiar with how FEIE interacts with federal AGI, so that could effect whether it's taxable in Virginia.