Why paying AMT (which is completely separate calculation and can differ drastically from 110% of 2016) will not draw penalty obsolete - not clear...
Whether Line 45 of 2016 Form 1040 - f1040.pdf is zero or not zero is irrelevant because 2016 Form 2210 - f2210.pdf starts with Line 56 of Form 1040.
Is that what you were asking?
Yes. So to sum up my understanding:
1. Fill in 1040, get 2 numbers: Tax and AMT
2. Disregard whichever is used, form 2210 is in effect with the same definition of penalty/safe harbor
Example I have in mind:
1. In 2016, paid $X in tax
2. In 2017, withheld 110% of $X (safe harbor for AGI > $150K)
3. In 2017, also exercised some options and AMT = (110% of $X) + $Y
4. I cannot be penalized for underpayment of $Y (be it a $1K or $100K)
Frankly, not having year-end Fair Market Value for the stock makes it impossible to predict the spread and, as a result, $Y. So there no point guessing unless I want to save extra to pay to IRS in April.