Author Topic: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth  (Read 25342 times)

mbk

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2014, 10:10:03 PM »
In 2014, my networth will grow by more than my income.

THAT is a badass moment.

How is that possible at such a (relatively) low NW?

The property I bought last year tripled in value in a year.
I expect it to be a one time event. Also, in the last 2-3 years, I was giving money
to my in-laws without expecting it back, so I wrote it off. Luckily I got
back all the amount I gave and a little more last month.

mbk

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #51 on: September 20, 2014, 10:20:02 PM »
In 2014, my networth will grow by more than my income.

THAT is a badass moment.

Thanks. I haven't shared this with anyone. And I am in research field making relatively low salary. Most of my friends earn 2-3 times more money. Some of them spend it all, but others are good at saving & investing. Once I move from academic research to industry, I believe all I need is 5 years to call it quits. And you are an inspiration, considering you made your million with a teacher's salary.

arebelspy

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #52 on: September 21, 2014, 03:58:25 PM »

Thanks. I haven't shared this with anyone. And I am in research field making relatively low salary. Most of my friends earn 2-3 times more money. Some of them spend it all, but others are good at saving & investing. Once I move from academic research to industry, I believe all I need is 5 years to call it quits. And you are an inspiration, considering you made your million with a teacher's salary.

I did it with two incomes coming in though (having a very helpful spouse).  But yeah, real estate can make crazy fast net worth gains.  Ultimately though it's more about the cash flow, because paper value rises and falls, but I'm retiring on income, not net worth.  :)

Setting great habits now will make your FIRE path ridiculously fast when you go from academics to business.  That's a great way to go.
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The Dutchman

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #53 on: September 26, 2014, 07:14:19 AM »
...Slow and steady on an average income is difficult but seeing this progress makes it worth the struggle!  We're really doing it!! :)....

Congrats!

So this will be an odd one.  But I will float this out there.  In theory you could boil down your gains to 1 number.  It is terribly depressing.  However, it is interesting. 

Here is how I do it: keep it simple date in one column net worth in the other.  Then create a graph in excel.  It should look like a stock chart (going up over time); however, being a MMM reader it will likely always trend up and never down.  From this point you right click on your graph chose "add trend line", change the type it to "logarithmic", and check the box at the bottom that says "display r-squared value". 

That "R-Squared" value is the one number you can boil your many years of savings down to.  It is basically your production rate.  Higher the number the better production you have. 

OP's production rate is .9378.  I have included your graph as an attachment.  Cool thing is that you can project out what your net worth will be using the trend line.  So if you go by the historical data you provided then your net worth in 2016 will be 120k.  As you continue to update and add more years and data the production rate will change and your projection will change. 

PS - If you guys want to see the excel file or would like to compare production rates let me know.  Might be worth another thread so we don't muddy this one. 

arebelspy

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #54 on: September 26, 2014, 07:53:46 AM »
Why is the r-squared a "production rate"?  Isn't it simply just a measure of how well the trendline fits the data?

So you can have it display the equation for the trendline, and use that to project, and the R-squared value is (more or less) an indication of approximately how accurate that value will be.

I'm not sure what you mean when you call it a production rate.

I may be way off, it's been a long time since I took statistics. But that was my understanding.
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The Dutchman

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #55 on: September 26, 2014, 08:25:03 AM »
Why is the r-squared a "production rate"?  Isn't it simply just a measure of how well the trendline fits the data?

So you can have it display the equation for the trendline, and use that to project, and the R-squared value is (more or less) an indication of approximately how accurate that value will be.

I'm not sure what you mean when you call it a production rate.

I may be way off, it's been a long time since I took statistics. But that was my understanding.

I am no statistician myself so I could be off.  The reason I call it i the "production rate" is because if your end game is to retire then more money going to your net is better.  The quicker you build the higher your R-Squared number will be.  As your R-Squared goes up (as a result of higher savings rate) then you are "producing" more towards your retirement.

This could be flawed logic.  Not sure. 

Zaga

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #56 on: September 26, 2014, 08:31:50 AM »
Why is the r-squared a "production rate"?  Isn't it simply just a measure of how well the trendline fits the data?

So you can have it display the equation for the trendline, and use that to project, and the R-squared value is (more or less) an indication of approximately how accurate that value will be.

I'm not sure what you mean when you call it a production rate.

I may be way off, it's been a long time since I took statistics. But that was my understanding.

I am no statistician myself so I could be off.  The reason I call it i the "production rate" is because if your end game is to retire then more money going to your net is better.  The quicker you build the higher your R-Squared number will be.  As your R-Squared goes up (as a result of higher savings rate) then you are "producing" more towards your retirement.

This could be flawed logic.  Not sure.
Completely flawed.  The R squared is just what Rebel said, it's a measure of how close the trendline fits the data.  So if you have variable data, like I do with one year that net worth didn't grow at all, then the trendline just isn't going to fit well and you'll have a low R squared.

Now, if you plot a linear trendline, and display the equation, then the slope of the line may tell you something useful.  A higher (steeper) slope means you are building up money faster.

domustachesgrowinhouston

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #57 on: September 26, 2014, 08:41:33 AM »
I think it's a neat idea, I might try to play with it a bit myself, though statistics is definitely not my strong suit.  I've only been tracking since 2012, but I've noticed three factors that really seem to make a difference:  My spending continues to decline giving me more to save, my income trends up also giving me more to save, and the investments compound which seems like (so far) over time the returns are more quickly closing the gap on my regular income.  In all, I would expect the trend line to be more exponential, primarily due to the investment incomes.  Thanks Dutchman.

dandarc

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #58 on: September 26, 2014, 08:43:38 AM »
Why is the r-squared a "production rate"?  Isn't it simply just a measure of how well the trendline fits the data?

So you can have it display the equation for the trendline, and use that to project, and the R-squared value is (more or less) an indication of approximately how accurate that value will be.

I'm not sure what you mean when you call it a production rate.

I may be way off, it's been a long time since I took statistics. But that was my understanding.

I am no statistician myself so I could be off.  The reason I call it i the "production rate" is because if your end game is to retire then more money going to your net is better.  The quicker you build the higher your R-Squared number will be.  As your R-Squared goes up (as a result of higher savings rate) then you are "producing" more towards your retirement.

This could be flawed logic.  Not sure.
Completely flawed.  The R squared is just what Rebel said, it's a measure of how close the trendline fits the data.  So if you have variable data, like I do with one year that net worth didn't grow at all, then the trendline just isn't going to fit well and you'll have a low R squared.

Now, if you plot a linear trendline, and display the equation, then the slope of the line may tell you something useful.  A higher (steeper) slope means you are building up money faster.
This - you can get a nice high R-Sqaured even on a decreasing fit line.  Try this:
DateAmount
1/1/20101000
1/1/20110
1/1/2012-1000
Should get an R-Squared of 1, but this would not be a good trend for your networth - slope is -1K per year.

The Dutchman

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #59 on: September 26, 2014, 09:03:08 AM »

This - you can get a nice high R-Sqaured even on a decreasing fit line.  Try this:
DateAmount
1/1/20101000
1/1/20110
1/1/2012-1000
Should get an R-Squared of 1, but this would not be a good trend for your networth - slope is -1K per year.

I agree it doesn't make sense if you try to bake the numbers.  The idea would be to take a base line over a couple of years and figure out what your R-Squared number and then try to improve your rate as the years go on.  You can not compare one person's to another either because a person with an R-Squared of 1 who makes 100k is not a direct comparison to a person with the same R-Squared who makes 50k...  It is a competition with yourself. 

Completely flawed.  The R squared is just what Rebel said, it's a measure of how close the trendline fits the data.  So if you have variable data, like I do with one year that net worth didn't grow at all, then the trendline just isn't going to fit well and you'll have a low R squared.

Now, if you plot a linear trendline, and display the equation, then the slope of the line may tell you something useful.  A higher (steeper) slope means you are building up money faster.

So change it from logarithmic to linear.  It makes no difference your R-Squared is still your slope.  Higher the slope the more you are saving. 

Hannah

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #60 on: September 26, 2014, 12:49:38 PM »
Just going to comment that the fundamental flaw with all this R2 is that your independent variable is time.

Finding a best fit line is a great exercise, but the application is meaningless.

An appropriate regression analysis requires multiple variables to be considered simultaneously and a sample size of more than 5. Only then can the fit of your line help you predict... anything.

dandarc

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #61 on: September 26, 2014, 01:09:46 PM »
So change it from logarithmic to linear.  It makes no difference your R-Squared is still your slope.  Higher the slope the more you are saving.
R-Squared is NOT your slope.  R2 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination  Slope - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slope

All it tells you is how well the data fits the trend line - nothing more, nothing less.  And as Hannah points out - this doesn't mean much of anything in this application.

I'll quit now - falling into the "Someone on the internet is wrong!" trap.

The Dutchman

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #62 on: September 26, 2014, 01:13:10 PM »
So change it from logarithmic to linear.  It makes no difference your R-Squared is still your slope.  Higher the slope the more you are saving.
R-Squared is NOT your slope.  R2 - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_determination  Slope - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slope

All it tells you is how well the data fits the trend line - nothing more, nothing less.  And as Hannah points out - this doesn't mean much of anything in this application.

I'll quit now - falling into the "Someone on the internet is wrong!" trap.

I have been bested; you are correct.  Slope would be a better way to measure. 

I apologize for this one. 

arebelspy

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #63 on: September 26, 2014, 04:39:22 PM »
Right, so just make excel show the equation for the best fit line, and the slope is the number next to the x, as it typically shows it in y=mx+b, where m is the slope and b is the y-intercept.

The r-squared is just how well your data fits that regression line, or how good its predictive ability should be, in general.
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LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #64 on: November 23, 2014, 12:06:21 PM »
At week end we are down to $89,000 in Assets (markets are down and we paid some large-ish bills) and $0 in Liabilities. Of this amount, there is the following breakdown:

Current (9/12/2014)

Retirement (Roth): $30,250
Retirement (Trad): $10,250
Brokerage:            $5,900
HSA:                     $2,500
Cash:                    $40,100

Net Worth :           $89,000

Year End 2014

Retirement (Roth): $39,000
Retirement (Trad): $14,000
Brokerage:            $5,900
HSA:                     $2,800
Cash:                    $40,100

Net Worth:            $101,800

Our plan for the coming year, given DW's new gig, is to drop $17,500 into her 401(k), $12,500 into my 401(k), and $5,500 into both IRA's. This would all be pre-tax. Employer match would also add $2,500.

My company's policies don't allow for my contribution to reach the full $17,500 so we can only drop $41,000 into retirement accounts. This falls $9,000 short of our projected "investable income" so the excess funds will be routed to HSA's and brokerage accounts.

Year End 2015

Retirement (Roth): $39,000
Retirement (Trad): $57,500
Brokerage:            $12,000
HSA:                     $6,000
Cash:                    $40,000

Net Worth:            $154,500



Current (Nov 2014)

Retirement (Roth): $34,350
Retirement (Trad): $15,650
Brokerage:             $6,100
HSA:                      $2,700
Cash:                     $41,000

Net Worth :            $99,800

Gross Income:      $77,000 (projected)

We will cross over into six-figures in a few days, ahead of schedule.  Should be resting at $105,000 by year end.  This would equate to a $43,000 net worth increase in 2014 - roughly 56% of our gross income.

The next obstacle is minimizing our tax exposure in 2015.  Projections are showing that we should owe ~$800 in federal income taxes on an income of $92,000 if we maximize our 401(k), 403(b), ESOP, IRA, and HSA space.  In total, $53,500 will be funneled into tax advantaged accounts.  I'm counting pretty heavily on future use of a Roth conversion ladder to access these funds.

neo von retorch

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #65 on: November 25, 2014, 10:24:29 AM »
Great job on your net worth improvements!

I've been tracking mine for about 11 years but here's where I'm at since I bought a house in 2007... (includes savings, retirement, all debts - does not include home value)
12/31/2007 -$151,951
12/31/2008 -$140,971
12/31/2009 -$119,939
12/31/2010 -$93,545
12/31/2011 -$99,622 (bought expensive car, durrr)
12/31/2012 -$66,047 (traded for more reasonable car)
12/31/2013 -$31,214 (retirement contributions and match)
12/31/2014  $23,000 (projected)

I'm positive now... 2014 has been a good year. Downgraded car. Benefited from stock investing in mid-2013. Some freelance income.

Home is probably worth roughly $160k. Mortgage now at ~$105k. No other debts (other than monthly credit card balances which are paid off.)

Inquizator

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #66 on: November 29, 2014, 04:28:25 PM »
It's neat to see everyone post their 'journey'.

I've been tracking one less year; though I got married in 2011, so it's a good year to start tracking.
Net worth at year end:
2011: $953
2012: $43,504
2013: $100,252
2014: $147,776 (Nov.)

Ricky

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #67 on: November 29, 2014, 07:39:45 PM »
Current (Nov 2014)

Retirement (Roth): $34,350
Retirement (Trad): $15,650
Brokerage:             $6,100
HSA:                      $2,700
Cash:                     $41,000

Net Worth :            $99,800

Gross Income:      $77,000 (projected)

We will cross over into six-figures in a few days, ahead of schedule.  Should be resting at $105,000 by year end.  This would equate to a $43,000 net worth increase in 2014 - roughly 56% of our gross income.

The next obstacle is minimizing our tax exposure in 2015.  Projections are showing that we should owe ~$800 in federal income taxes on an income of $92,000 if we maximize our 401(k), 403(b), ESOP, IRA, and HSA space.  In total, $53,500 will be funneled into tax advantaged accounts.  I'm counting pretty heavily on future use of a Roth conversion ladder to access these funds.

Given $41k is probably way more than you spend in a year, why so much cash? Throw them babies in an index.

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #68 on: November 30, 2014, 02:31:20 AM »
I have been tracking net worth since 2010

2010 - $15,000
2011 - $30,000
2012 - $45,000
2013 - $65,000
2014 - $90,000
1/2015 - ~$105,000 (estimated)

LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #69 on: December 26, 2014, 04:32:36 PM »
Current (Nov 2014)

Retirement (Roth): $34,350
Retirement (Trad): $15,650
Brokerage:             $6,100
HSA:                      $2,700
Cash:                     $41,000

Net Worth :            $99,800

Gross Income:      $77,000 (projected)

We will cross over into six-figures in a few days, ahead of schedule.  Should be resting at $105,000 by year end.  This would equate to a $43,000 net worth increase in 2014 - roughly 56% of our gross income.

The next obstacle is minimizing our tax exposure in 2015.  Projections are showing that we should owe ~$800 in federal income taxes on an income of $92,000 if we maximize our 401(k), 403(b), ESOP, IRA, and HSA space.  In total, $53,500 will be funneled into tax advantaged accounts.  I'm counting pretty heavily on future use of a Roth conversion ladder to access these funds.

Given $41k is probably way more than you spend in a year, why so much cash? Throw them babies in an index.

Not knowing if you're ready to make a down payment on a house in 2 years or 10 is a bitch. I'd rather invest the $25k that's earmarked for housing but our timeline is so dependent on "life" over the next 12-24 months that we've decided to play it safe.

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #70 on: April 28, 2019, 05:17:25 PM »
Hey all - looking for a place to track our progress through the years so I'm reviving this thread for that purpose. Last time that I posted was in November 2014 when we had a net worth of $99k and weren't sure where life would take us. This was shortly after DW graduated college. Since then a lot has changed - as I suspect it has for all of you as well. We moved across the country for work/adventure, started new jobs, bought our first house, and had a child. Our current assets total roughly $725k, with an outstanding mortgage of $260k. Our primary focus at the moment is paying this down. Despite the math, we're comfortable with the opportunity cost over the next 3-5 years. We're contributing 15% + Match to our retirement accounts. Because of some front-loading this year, I'll be able to max mine out with just the 15% going forward.

Net Worth
2010: ($18,000)  [Student Loans]
2011: $25,000     [Married]
2012: $41,000
2013: $62,000     [DH Graduated]
2014: $108,000   [DW Graduated]
2015: $172,000
2016: $263,000   [Cross Country Move & Career Change]
2017: $353,000   [Bought House]
2018: $365,000
2019: $465,000 [Current]

Income*
2010: $33,000   + $2,000   = $35,000
2011: $43,000   + $5,000   = $48,000
2012: $45,000   + $8,000   = $53,000
2013: $42,000   + $15,000 = $57,000
2014: $48,000   + $29,000 = $77,000
2015: $53,000   + $55,000 = $108,000
2016: $45,000   + $52,000 = $97,000
2017: $74,000   + $45,000 = $119,000
2018: $65,000   + $30,000 = $95,000
2019: $105,000 + $30,000 = $135,000 [projected]

*DH + DW = Household

It's nice to see the progress through the years. That small net worth change in 2018 was largely due to the market correction post-September. We went from just over $400k back down to $365k. Playing the long game and very comfortable with lots of market risk so we didn't do anything but dump a lot more in each paycheck. Thanks for reading.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2019, 06:47:26 PM by LivingTheory »

Gremlin

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #71 on: April 28, 2019, 05:28:00 PM »
Awesome work LivingTheory!  Reckon you're now putting that Theory into Practice.  *ducks*

I remember reading somewhere that human beings have a tendency to overestimate what they can achieve in a year, but significantly underestimate what they can achieve in 10 years.  You're almost ten years in and your progression should be a case study for those that are just starting out.

Just keep going as you are...

LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #72 on: April 29, 2019, 06:09:19 PM »
You're almost ten years in and your progression should be a case study for those that are just starting out.

Just keep going as you are...

Thank you. Weíre trying our best to build a stable future for ourselves. It really is about living the theory that we all discuss. 😆

jojoguy

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #73 on: April 30, 2019, 04:40:38 AM »
Way to go dude! In my opinion, tracking makes it fun. We`ve doubled our retirement money since joining MMM 7 months ago. The tracking threads are my favorite to read. It is great to see some posts from years ago from somebody who is in debt or is beginning their journey go from nothing to being worth hundreds of thousands or a millionaire. Very inspirational post, bro.

Zaga

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #74 on: April 30, 2019, 05:04:45 AM »
Net Worth
2010: ($18,000)  [Student Loans]
2011: $25,000     [Married]
2012: $41,000
2013: $62,000     [DH Graduated]
2014: $108,000   [DW Graduated]
2015: $172,000
2016: $263,000   [Cross Country Move & Career Change]
2017: $353,000   [Bought House]
2018: $365,000
2019: $465,000 [Current]



It's nice to see the progress through the years. That small net worth change in 2018 was largely due to the market correction post-September. We went from just over $400k back down to $365k. Playing the long game and very comfortable with lots of market risk so we didn't do anything but dump a lot more in each paycheck. Thanks for reading.
You're progress is remarkably similar to ours by year.  I do love stepping back and looking at overall change after 10 years and being astounded!

2010 net worth -38,000
current net worth +431,000 (neither including home equity)

I bet you beat us to FI though, keep up the amazing work!

LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #75 on: May 01, 2019, 02:42:19 PM »
I bet you beat us to FI though, keep up the amazing work!

I donít know, if your NW is that high without home eq included... Bet youíre pretty close to FI. For apples-to-apples, our NW of $465k includes $130k of home equity. Weíre at $335k if you back that out. I include it since itís an after-tax asset at our disposal. Plus, it just looks nicer. Lol

LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #76 on: May 01, 2019, 02:45:16 PM »
In my opinion, tracking makes it fun. We`ve doubled our retirement money since joining MMM 7 months ago.

Nice work! You timed that start perfectly. Buy on the Q4 dip and then see the huge Q1 rally.

Glad this thread helped in some small way. I love having post history across different forums from years ago. Helps me see how my mindset has shifted as life changes. Keep up the great work!!

Zaga

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #77 on: May 01, 2019, 04:27:15 PM »
I bet you beat us to FI though, keep up the amazing work!

I donít know, if your NW is that high without home eq included... Bet youíre pretty close to FI. For apples-to-apples, our NW of $465k includes $130k of home equity. Weíre at $335k if you back that out. I include it since itís an after-tax asset at our disposal. Plus, it just looks nicer. Lol
Well I didn't include home equity in the low number either, and your stash is growing as fast as ours is on a slightly lower income.

I don't care either way, I hope we both make it there faster than I expect!

LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #78 on: May 11, 2019, 07:46:10 AM »
I hope we both make it there faster than I expect!

Amen to that!!
« Last Edit: May 11, 2019, 07:49:41 AM by LivingTheory »

arebelspy

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #79 on: May 12, 2019, 09:27:07 PM »
I love seeing updates like this years later. :D

Well done on the growth, on keeping the focus. Congrats on the new job(s), and kid.

Sounds like life is pretty great. :)
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golfreak12

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #80 on: May 17, 2019, 09:48:24 AM »
Glad to see the updates.
Why the lower income after 2017 ??

LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #81 on: May 17, 2019, 11:26:49 PM »
Why the lower income after 2017 ??

Couple of reasons. We were saving for a house down payment and also had our first kid in 2017. I stopped working so much overtime in 2018 and my SO went part time to avoid daycare. Since then I moved into a higher-paying position which brought our cumulative income to a new high.

LivingTheory

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #82 on: May 19, 2019, 07:27:58 AM »
I love seeing updates like this years later. :D

Well done on the growth, on keeping the focus. Congrats on the new job(s), and kid.

Sounds like life is pretty great. :)

Thanks, ARebelSpy! Another five years of discipline and weíll reach FI. Hope to have the house paid off and 25-30x our current expenses by that time. Will likely continue working until Iím 40 (10 years away) so our nest egg and vacation budget will really grow during the second five year period. Weíve added a lot of security to our lives at 28 and 30, which is fun to reflect back on, but now itís all about making things safe in perpetuity.

FLOW

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Re: Four Years of Tracking Net Worth
« Reply #83 on: May 19, 2019, 08:04:58 AM »
Thank you for bumping this thread!!! Threads like these are a gift to the forum.  In 2014, the year 2019 seemed impossibly far away, and yet 5 years happened and still here. Looking out 5 years again, it makes 2024 seem more real.  Hopefully you'll bump this thread again. 

Thanks for sharing your journey.