Author Topic: Kickass TSP 12-month returns  (Read 1496 times)

elysianfields

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Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« on: April 19, 2021, 11:40:54 AM »
This only could have happened because of the big drop last March due to the novel coronavirus pandemic and the subsequent market rise, and I don't expect ever to see such returns again...

See the attachment...
« Last Edit: April 19, 2021, 11:45:48 AM by elysianfields »

Sugaree

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2021, 11:41:40 AM »
Yeah, mine were around 50% last week when I peeked at it.

charis

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2021, 11:43:04 AM »
I'm still in mid-accumulation stage, so this concerns me a bit, even though it's nice to see the numbers.

DeniseNJ

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #3 on: April 20, 2021, 06:42:31 AM »
I'm thrilled to have so much money, but I can't help feeling it can only go down from here. "The top is in," sort of feeling.  So I just keep putting in money every two weeks since really, what's the alternative.  When it's high I try to be happy bc I have so much money, and when it's low I try to be happy bc I'm getting great deals.

Fomerly known as something

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #4 on: April 23, 2021, 05:22:35 AM »
I'm still in mid-accumulation stage, so this concerns me a bit, even though it's nice to see the numbers.

Why?  My philosophy is the higher the start point, the better off I am if a 50% market correction happens.  Meaning 50% of 500k, going down to $250k is better than 50% of 100k, which drops to 50k.

Michael in ABQ

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2021, 06:22:37 AM »
I was wondering if the calculation was off because I didn't see how I could have a 60%+ annual return when the S&P 500 was only up 20-30%. However, when I look now I see that my TSP is up 62% and the S&P 500 is actually up over 50% in the last year. Very glad that I was dumping 20% of my no-tax combat zone pay into my Roth TSP most of last year - plus 5% into the regular TSP for the 5% match.

charis

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #6 on: April 23, 2021, 08:36:08 AM »
I'm still in mid-accumulation stage, so this concerns me a bit, even though it's nice to see the numbers.

Why?  My philosophy is the higher the start point, the better off I am if a 50% market correction happens.  Meaning 50% of 500k, going down to $250k is better than 50% of 100k, which drops to 50k.

Sure, it's always good to get a 60% return, but better if you don't also have to be buying.

simonsez

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #7 on: April 23, 2021, 11:14:40 AM »
Nice work OP!  66.17% over here, no complaints!

simonsez

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #8 on: April 23, 2021, 11:21:55 AM »
I'm still in mid-accumulation stage, so this concerns me a bit, even though it's nice to see the numbers.

Why?  My philosophy is the higher the start point, the better off I am if a 50% market correction happens.  Meaning 50% of 500k, going down to $250k is better than 50% of 100k, which drops to 50k.

Sure, it's always good to get a 60% return, but better if you don't also have to be buying.
I don't follow this.  As opposed to...already having enough assets, sitting pat, and still getting a 60% return?  Sure, that's better than buying I suppose.  Not sure what the alternative is to buying assets if you are, you know, still in the stage of accumulating assets.

charis

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #9 on: April 23, 2021, 12:58:12 PM »
I'm still in mid-accumulation stage, so this concerns me a bit, even though it's nice to see the numbers.

Why?  My philosophy is the higher the start point, the better off I am if a 50% market correction happens.  Meaning 50% of 500k, going down to $250k is better than 50% of 100k, which drops to 50k.

Sure, it's always good to get a 60% return, but better if you don't also have to be buying.
I don't follow this.  As opposed to...already having enough assets, sitting pat, and still getting a 60% return?  Sure, that's better than buying I suppose.  Not sure what the alternative is to buying assets if you are, you know, still in the stage of accumulating assets.

Yes, that was my entire point and why I referred to the accumulation stage.

simonsez

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #10 on: April 23, 2021, 02:29:19 PM »
I'm still in mid-accumulation stage, so this concerns me a bit, even though it's nice to see the numbers.

Why?  My philosophy is the higher the start point, the better off I am if a 50% market correction happens.  Meaning 50% of 500k, going down to $250k is better than 50% of 100k, which drops to 50k.

Sure, it's always good to get a 60% return, but better if you don't also have to be buying.
I don't follow this.  As opposed to...already having enough assets, sitting pat, and still getting a 60% return?  Sure, that's better than buying I suppose.  Not sure what the alternative is to buying assets if you are, you know, still in the stage of accumulating assets.

Yes, that was my entire point and why I referred to the accumulation stage.
Okay, don't higher returns while in the accumulation stage result in getting to the point of no longer buying (FIRE, retirement, etc.) more quickly?  I guess I don't understand the concern over the good returns most of us have seen recently, especially last year.  If you needed to accumulate more assets (as a result of lower investment returns), that would less concerning to you? 

aetheldrea

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #11 on: April 24, 2021, 11:45:16 PM »
Okay, don't higher returns while in the accumulation stage result in getting to the point of no longer buying (FIRE, retirement, etc.) more quickly?  I guess I don't understand the concern over the good returns most of us have seen recently, especially last year.  If you needed to accumulate more assets (as a result of lower investment returns), that would less concerning to you?
My concern with elevated returns is a regression to the mean. For those of us nearing retirement and looking at a withdrawal rate based on historical stock market returns, a multi-year correction is scary. Poor market performance in the early years of retirement is what puts you into the part of the rich/broke/dead chart where you aren’t rich or dead.
It FEELS bad, but I’m not sure that it is bad, or just a cognitive bias. Like we just saw heads come up 27 times in a row, and thinking that next time it MUST be tails, when really it’s still 50/50.

elysianfields

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Re: Kickass TSP 12-month returns
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2021, 10:10:05 AM »
Okay, don't higher returns while in the accumulation stage result in getting to the point of no longer buying (FIRE, retirement, etc.) more quickly?  I guess I don't understand the concern over the good returns most of us have seen recently, especially last year.  If you needed to accumulate more assets (as a result of lower investment returns), that would less concerning to you?
My concern with elevated returns is a regression to the mean. For those of us nearing retirement and looking at a withdrawal rate based on historical stock market returns, a multi-year correction is scary. Poor market performance in the early years of retirement is what puts you into the part of the rich/broke/dead chart where you aren’t rich or dead.
It FEELS bad, but I’m not sure that it is bad, or just a cognitive bias. Like we just saw heads come up 27 times in a row, and thinking that next time it MUST be tails, when really it’s still 50/50.

Let me remind everyone what a scary market we endured in 1Q2020.  My returns in my TSP for the first three months of 2020 were around -22.27%.  I know many people who freaked out and moved to cash, and I just kept contributing to the C, S, and I funds.

Also, my non-annualized total returns from January 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021 were ~36.49%.  That's a nice number, but it's not 66.61% either.

Obviously by most traditional measures, the stock market is richly valued right now, most likely anticipating large pent-up demand for travel, eating out, bar-hopping, watching movies, hearing live music, watching theater, and the larger economy.  But that doesn't mean we'll necessarily see a huge drop.  Perhaps the market will stagnate or even rise very slowly.  Since I cannot successfully predict the market and am still in the accumulation phase, I just keep buying AKA dollar cost averaging.