Finally! Some *Good* Retirement Calculators

[oldtoyota]

My beef with most calculators is that they assume you'll get a 3% raise every year and there's no way to adjust it, or they do not take inflation into account.

I have tried numerous calculators and finally found these, which make sense to me:

http://financialmentor.com/calculator/retirement-calculator

[arebelspy]

Todd's calculators are okay to start.

The biggest problem with most retirement calculators are they assume average returns every year, or else are Monte Carlo simulators.

I vastly prefer FIRECalc to any of them.  Fidelity's RIP is really good too.

[oldtoyota]

Todd's calculators are okay to start.

The biggest problem with most retirement calculators are they assume average returns every year, or else are Monte Carlo simulators.

I vastly prefer FIRECalc to any of them.  Fidelity's RIP is really good too.

I tried FireCalc. The interface is so terrible. It looks like a website from 1995. Yikes.

When I used FireCalc, I was not certain that the info I'd entered on page one stayed there when I navigated to page two. I clicked to go back and check and my info had changed back to the default. What am I missing? It would make more sense to me to put all of the input fields on one page and then chose what you want and click a "submit" button.

[arebelspy]

Click the tabs, not the back button.

I care about how useful a retirement calculator is, not how pretty it is.

Though FIRECalc's graph is often quite beautiful, now that you mention it.  :)

The point is FIRECalc uses much better data.  The rest is GIGO.

[matchewed]

I have to second that although the interface isn't particularly friendly it is an extremely great tool. The graphs are great and I love the data dump it can provide.

[davisgang90]

I prefer Todd's stuff as well.  Firecalc is pretty in a spirograph kinda way, but it tells me I'll have somewhere between -$1.7M and $7M throughout retirement.  Not super helpful to me in deciding when to retire.

[matchewed]

You tell it when you want to retire. It tells you the odds that will be successful. Run some different years of retirement, find the odds you are comfortable with, and presto you have your when. Please run as your plan adjusts.

[arebelspy]

You tell it when you want to retire. It tells you the odds that will be successful. Run some different years of retirement, find the odds you are comfortable with, and presto you have your when. Please run as your plan adjusts.

Exactly.  Todd's calculator may tell you that you're good to go in 2017, 4 years from now, based on your stache now and some random guesses of returns and inflation, but FIRECalc will actually tell you based on historical returns and inflation rates what will the odds be that you'll be ready to go in 2017, and what would have happened if 2017 onward was like the 1929 period onward, 1930 onward, 1931, etc. and how you'd have made out historically.  If you can survive history's worst periods of returns and inflation, the theory is, you may just be okay now.

The other calculator just says "well the return you decided to make up sounds good! Sequence of retuns probably doesn't matter!  Best of luck!".  GIGO.  Pass.

[Zamboni]

FIRECalc is great!  Thanks!

The problem I have using the traditional online retirement calculators (like the one at Vanguard) is that some of them have a bottom percent of current income that you can select for retirement.  Vanguard's wouldn't let me go below 60% of current income, but I live on less than that now, including taking care of two children with their growing feet and expensive basketball shoes AND I have a mortgage which will be gone by retirement. So why will I need 60% of my current income in retirement?  It makes no sense to me for it to have that lower boundary.

[davisgang90]

You tell it when you want to retire. It tells you the odds that will be successful. Run some different years of retirement, find the odds you are comfortable with, and presto you have your when. Please run as your plan adjusts.

Exactly.  Todd's calculator may tell you that you're good to go in 2017, 4 years from now, based on your stache now and some random guesses of returns and inflation, but FIRECalc will actually tell you based on historical returns and inflation rates what will the odds be that you'll be ready to go in 2017, and what would have happened if 2017 onward was like the 1929 period onward, 1930 onward, 1931, etc. and how you'd have made out historically.  If you can survive history's worst periods of returns and inflation, the theory is, you may just be okay now.

The other calculator just says "well the return you decided to make up sounds good! Sequence of retuns probably doesn't matter!  Best of luck!".  GIGO.  Pass.

OK, Firecalc is growing on me, but I still don't like the interface.  Now that I've played around with it, I am even more confident on my retirement plans!

[arebelspy]

I agree with you all on the interface - it's just so darn useful and superior it's worth putting up with.  :D

Results matter more to me than prettiness.

[Nords]

I tried FireCalc. The interface is so terrible. It looks like a website from 1995. Yikes.

I bet if some of you got a free trip to the International Space Station then you'd complain about the noise or the food or the toilet paper.  FIRECalc was developed by an early retiree for free, including a total of three versions which went through brutal beta-testing.  Instead of going corporate with it, he left it free for anyone to use and critique.

Luckily we have other choices, and many of them are also worth what you pay for them free.  Here's a rundown on retirement calculators:

FIRECalc is the best historical calculator, assuming that there's any validity to using historical calculators to predict retirement success.  It was based on a late-1990s spreadsheet developed by John Greaney at The Motley Fool's early retirement forum.  (John modeled his spreadsheet from the Trinity Study.  When TMF began charging for access, John started RetireEarlyHomePage.com and continued the discussion there.)  Another reader, Dory36, programmed John's spreadsheet into FIRECalc v1.0 along with starting his own discussion board (Early-Retirement.org).
http://www.firecalc.com/intro.php

FIRECalc v2.0 and v3.0 were developed by Dory36 with plenty of reader feedback.  Shortly after 3.0 debuted he sold Early-Retirement.org and FIRECalc to its current owner, Andy Robinowitz.  For at least four years, Andy has been seeking a programmer to overhaul the code.  Several professionals have recoiled at the task (Andy's been unwilling to pay their prices) and many amateurs have failed.  I believe that if you think that you can fix FIRECalc then your programmer's credibility is suspect.  If you actually can fix FIRECalc then you're probably unwilling to do it for free.  If you want to contact the original programmer then I can point you in his direction, but he may not be interested in responding.
http://www.firecalc.com/notes.php

The best Monte Carlo program (or at least the most detailed) is FinancialEngines.com.  (I'm assuming that Monte Carlo is a suitable method of modeling reality.)  Its biggest advantage is being able to recommend mutual funds & ETFs to match the user's parameters for their 401(k) choices.  It's probably free if your 401(k) provider offers it, but if you're looking for an extremely detailed check on your ER progress then FE is worth the membership fee.
http://corp.financialengines.com/helping_you/how_we_do_it.html

Todd Tresidder's calculators avoid both of the pitfalls of historical and Monte Carlo calculators.  Before you use Todd's calculator you should review his assumptions, which may not match your own retirement planning philosophy.
http://financialmentor.com/free-articles/retirement-planning/how-much-to-retire/why-retirement-calculators-cant-be-trusted
http://financialmentor.com/calculator/retirement-calculator
Todd's calculators and research and writing are much more in-depth than a typical blogger or financial analyst, me included.  You may feel that you're drinking from a 2.5" 250-psi firehose.  Consider that Todd graduated from college with debts and achieved seven figures of financial independence in just 12 years.  Since then he's had nearly 20 years to think through the process of showing others how to do it.  He makes over 80 different calculator tools available for free to any blogger who wants to feature them in their posts.  You can also use any of them on Todd's website.

At the other end of the calculator spectrum is usability.  Several years ago USAA noted that fewer than 10% of their clients would actually get through a web-based calculator, so they came up with several simplified models.  They may not be stochastically rigorous, but they're much easier to use and much more likely to set people on the right path. 
http://the-military-guide.com/2012/02/20/usaas-retirement-planner-and-financial-goal-planning-tools/
http://the-military-guide.com/2012/06/13/usaas-savings-goals-and-529-plan-calculators/

Here's a rundown of several more calculators, including:
ESP
Otar's calculator
Bob Clyatt's 4%/95% system
Bud Hebeler's system
http://the-military-guide.com/2011/12/01/retirement-planners-and-calculators-part-2-of-2/

For the most detailed survey that I've ever seen, try the Bogleheads Wiki:
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirement_calculators_and_spending

By the time you've finished sailing the high seas of retirement calculators, FIRECalc may start lookin' pretty good...

[Random]

Nords:  your post is a treasure trove.  Thank you.

[lauren_knows]

I'm actually in the process of reverse-engineering and overhauling the functionality of Firecalc.  So far, I have successfully recreated the default scenario ($30k spending, $750k portfolio, 30 years, .18% fees, 75% equities) perfectly, and am working on adding in the various options that are available (spending models, added expenses, pensions, etc).

Once I have a solid workable version, I'll probably solicit ideas for new functionality. (I already have been privately).

[Nords]

Once I have a solid workable version, I'll probably solicit ideas for new functionality. (I already have been privately).

Contact Andy R at Early-Retirement.org.  He's been getting an earful from the posters for about five years, and by now he has a mighty long list.

[lauren_knows]

Once I have a solid workable version, I'll probably solicit ideas for new functionality. (I already have been privately).

He's been getting an earful from the posters for about five years, and by now he has a mighty long list.

Yeah, I know.  I've been a member of E-R.org for about 2 years, and I read about them often... especially about the fact that it hasn't been updated since 2007.  That's what spurred on my whole project.

[LowER]

Wow Nords!!  Thank you so much for all the new video games!!! 

Seriously though, what a comprehensive, and concise, breakdown of the available calculators. 

Thanks again,
LowER

[oldtoyota]

Click the tabs, not the back button.

I care about how useful a retirement calculator is, not how pretty it is.

Though FIRECalc's graph is often quite beautiful, now that you mention it.  :)

The point is FIRECalc uses much better data.  The rest is GIGO.

I am not looking for prettiness, but I do appreciate usability. Unlike most, I don't blame the user for web projects that are hard to use or unclear.

I know I've paid nothing to use FIRECalc, and it's probably a great product if I would only put the hours in to understand it. Maye I will.

The tabs. Normally, on a website, tabs would not advance you in the process. You would use a button. When I click on a tab, there's no confirmation that my previous information is still in place. Is it? I assume so, but I do not want to base my calcs on an assumption.

[matchewed]

Yes your previous information is retained. You can always click the tab you just left to check. Tray updating a value in a tab, click a different tab, then submit on your second tab. You'll see the output updates to your new input.

[arebelspy]

I am not looking for prettiness, but I do appreciate usability. Unlike most, I don't blame the user for web projects that are hard to use or unclear.

I know I've paid nothing to use FIRECalc, and it's probably a great product if I would only put the hours in to understand it. Maye I will.

The tabs. Normally, on a website, tabs would not advance you in the process. You would use a button. When I click on a tab, there's no confirmation that my previous information is still in place. Is it? I assume so, but I do not want to base my calcs on an assumption.

Okay.  Like any other product, especially free ones on the internet, you're welcome not to use it.  I have no stake in if you use it or not.  I was just trying to help you out by explaining a little more.  :)

[Spork]

Click the tabs, not the back button.

I care about how useful a retirement calculator is, not how pretty it is.

Though FIRECalc's graph is often quite beautiful, now that you mention it.  :)

The point is FIRECalc uses much better data.  The rest is GIGO.

I am not looking for prettiness, but I do appreciate usability. Unlike most, I don't blame the user for web projects that are hard to use or unclear.

I know I've paid nothing to use FIRECalc, and it's probably a great product if I would only put the hours in to understand it. Maye I will.

The tabs. Normally, on a website, tabs would not advance you in the process. You would use a button. When I click on a tab, there's no confirmation that my previous information is still in place. Is it? I assume so, but I do not want to base my calcs on an assumption.

If you don't like the tabs, turn off Javascript.

In fact, if you care about security/privacy even a teeny, tiny bit: you should be using a plugin that lets you control scripting.  I'd recommend Firefox/NoScript ... but I'm biased and I am sure there are other options out there.  Seriously, when you go to a very simple web site and there are 30+ OTHER web sites running scripts on your computer: there's something wrong. (That's not a criticism of firecalc, but a general rant on "most web sites these days".)

[oldtoyota]

Click the tabs, not the back button.

I care about how useful a retirement calculator is, not how pretty it is.

Though FIRECalc's graph is often quite beautiful, now that you mention it.  :)

The point is FIRECalc uses much better data.  The rest is GIGO.

I am not looking for prettiness, but I do appreciate usability. Unlike most, I don't blame the user for web projects that are hard to use or unclear.

I know I've paid nothing to use FIRECalc, and it's probably a great product if I would only put the hours in to understand it. Maye I will.

The tabs. Normally, on a website, tabs would not advance you in the process. You would use a button. When I click on a tab, there's no confirmation that my previous information is still in place. Is it? I assume so, but I do not want to base my calcs on an assumption.

If you don't like the tabs, turn off Javascript.

In fact, if you care about security/privacy even a teeny, tiny bit: you should be using a plugin that lets you control scripting.  I'd recommend Firefox/NoScript ... but I'm biased and I am sure there are other options out there.  Seriously, when you go to a very simple web site and there are 30+ OTHER web sites running scripts on your computer: there's something wrong. (That's not a criticism of firecalc, but a general rant on "most web sites these days".)

Thank you. That is useful info to have about turning off JavaScript!

I do care about privacy and security. Since the NSA has copies of everything, I realize there is no such thing as privacy on the internet. Despite that, I am willing to pretend we have privacy and even to download certain items that claim to protect my web browsing. =-)

[Spork]

Thank you. That is useful info to have about turning off JavaScript!

I do care about privacy and security. Since the NSA has copies of everything, I realize there is no such thing as privacy on the internet. Despite that, I am willing to pretend we have privacy and even to download certain items that claim to protect my web browsing. =-)

Turning it off entirely will help with firecalc.  ... but it will hopelessly break some pages.  Noscript lets you turn it on/off per site (in addition to some other advanced/geeky features).

...and while we're on that topic: you can most likely turn java off entirely, delete it, set it on fire, pour gas on it and push it off a cliff.  (Note to the less geeky: "java" and "javascript" sound like the same thing, but they are entirely different animals.)

[arebelspy]

For at least four years, Andy has been seeking a programmer to overhaul the code.  Several professionals have recoiled at the task (Andy's been unwilling to pay their prices) and many amateurs have failed.  I believe that if you think that you can fix FIRECalc then your programmer's credibility is suspect.  If you actually can fix FIRECalc then you're probably unwilling to do it for free. 

That person has been found. 

If you guys love retirement calculators as much as I do (I know, I'm a huge geek), and think FIRECalc is the best... just wait.  :D

/so excited
//yes, this post is a huge tease, I couldn't resist because I just spent a bunch of time doing ER scenarios.
///i have nothing to do with the project, just an excited user

[lauren_knows]

For at least four years, Andy has been seeking a programmer to overhaul the code.  Several professionals have recoiled at the task (Andy's been unwilling to pay their prices) and many amateurs have failed.  I believe that if you think that you can fix FIRECalc then your programmer's credibility is suspect.  If you actually can fix FIRECalc then you're probably unwilling to do it for free. 

That person has been found. 

If you guys love retirement calculators as much as I do (I know, I'm a huge geek), and think FIRECalc is the best... just wait.  :D

/so excited
//yes, this post is a huge tease, I couldn't resist because I just spent a bunch of time doing ER scenarios.
///i have nothing to do with the project, just an excited user

Ha.  Glad you like it so far.

I just sent out the link to a couple of other people in these forums and on reddit that showed interest. Hopefully I'll have more confidence it in after a couple of more people are looking for bugs.   Top of my list right now is to get a user login page going, which will allow for a couple of nice capabilities (saving simulations, side-by-side comparisons of simulations, etc).

[oldtoyota]

Thank you. That is useful info to have about turning off JavaScript!

I do care about privacy and security. Since the NSA has copies of everything, I realize there is no such thing as privacy on the internet. Despite that, I am willing to pretend we have privacy and even to download certain items that claim to protect my web browsing. =-)

Turning it off entirely will help with firecalc.  ... but it will hopelessly break some pages.  Noscript lets you turn it on/off per site (in addition to some other advanced/geeky features).

...and while we're on that topic: you can most likely turn java off entirely, delete it, set it on fire, pour gas on it and push it off a cliff.  (Note to the less geeky: "java" and "javascript" sound like the same thing, but they are entirely different animals.)

Your post is funny. I definitely "set fire" to Java abilities.

[davisgang90]

For at least four years, Andy has been seeking a programmer to overhaul the code.  Several professionals have recoiled at the task (Andy's been unwilling to pay their prices) and many amateurs have failed.  I believe that if you think that you can fix FIRECalc then your programmer's credibility is suspect.  If you actually can fix FIRECalc then you're probably unwilling to do it for free. 

That person has been found. 

If you guys love retirement calculators as much as I do (I know, I'm a huge geek), and think FIRECalc is the best... just wait.  :D

/so excited
//yes, this post is a huge tease, I couldn't resist because I just spent a bunch of time doing ER scenarios.
///i have nothing to do with the project, just an excited user

Ha.  Glad you like it so far.

I just sent out the link to a couple of other people in these forums and on reddit that showed interest. Hopefully I'll have more confidence it in after a couple of more people are looking for bugs.   Top of my list right now is to get a user login page going, which will allow for a couple of nice capabilities (saving simulations, side-by-side comparisons of simulations, etc).

I'd love to check it out if you wouldn't mind.

[footenote]

No bugs found so far. Testing on older versions of Firefox and Safari as well as most recent releases.

Enthused to see user log-in, save, and side-by-side!

[Nords]

I'm glad this is working out.

When you release the calculator for unrestricted operations, you might also want to have Bogleheads add it to their roster:
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirement_calculators_and_spending

[lauren_knows]

I'm glad this is working out.

When you release the calculator for unrestricted operations, you might also want to have Bogleheads add it to their roster:
http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Retirement_calculators_and_spending

I actually just tried to contact the mods over there to have cFIREsim added. Turns out that they wont because of 1) That it says it's in "Beta"  2) It has not been reviewed by anyone online.   

I think both of those will eventually resolve themselves.