The Money Mustache Community
Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Real Estate and Landlording => Topic started by: joenorm on May 18, 2021, 07:05:16 PM
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On the bright side I am just finishing a project where I missed this crazy lumber price spike. On the other hand, I've got a couple outbuildings to erect but I am really stumped with the current price of lumber.
A sheet of 1/2 CDX ply where I live is $102! Last year at this time I think it was about $30 if my memory serves. Other framing lumber is a similar percentage up.
Of course part of me wants to wait through this cycle but who's to know when it will come back down? How is someone to make these decisions without a crystal ball? Do I just eat the extra few thousand dollars added to my project or hope this passes?
thanks
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How much of this product is a need? If not a need, then lay low. I do think prices will stabilize.
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It won't be falling this summer, according to my commercial rep at the lumber yard.
And why would it, summer is building season with great demand, pent up demand this season.
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I hope so! I have half the lumber needed for the next phase of my utility room project, but I'm not willing to spend $8 for a single 2x4. I'm hoping that the supply issues and excess demand will work themselves out and it'll go back down next year.
It's not just lumber though. Pretty much all building supplies are up. It's making me pick and choose projects carefully this summer.
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I read an interesting article recently. The problem is that no one in the lumbar industry is willing to invest the time and money in building more lumber mills. By the time you could get one built, prices may end up dropping lower than they were a year ago. All the mills are running at full capacity and happy to be raking in nice profits while times are good.
Price will inevitably fall. But will it be in 3 months, 6 months, 2 years? There's the the rub.
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I get market reports on construction materials for work (heads up, drywall is going up in June). There are a number of factors contributing to the higher cost of lumber right now. Canadian tariffs hit right as COVID border restrictions did. Saw mills had to shut down. Now, housing starts are increasing demand while supply is very low. Most of what I'm hearing is that we have at least 18 months with an elevated cost outlook for lumber and after that, people don't expect it to come all the way back to where it was.
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The lumber forward futures is down 10% over the last 2 days. It's now sitting at $1200 from its high of $1700.
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It will come crushing down. Sooner than later the market manipulators will move on to another commodity and lumber will come crashing down. There is not a lumber shortage and currently lumber is being stored/warehoused because the lumber yards are so full. Go into any home improvement store or lumber yard and I bet you not a single rack is empty.....
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This is good explanation of what has happened in the North American lumber market. Its a Bloomberg podcast and the due explaining the stuff is a lumber trader who gives a good walk-through on how we got here and why the structural situation doesn't have a quick fix:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/why-the-price-of-lumber-has-soared-day-after-day-after-day/id1056200096?i=1000518629853
It's not often that lumber becomes a national obsession. But this year it has. Thanks to a combination of factors, including diminished sawmill capacity, a renovation boom, and then a homebuilding boom, the price of finished wood has soared to never-before-seen heights. On this episode, we speak with Stinson Dean, a lumber trader at Deacon Trading, to explain why the market has gone so wild, and how the market is structured.
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It will come crushing down. Sooner than later the market manipulators will move on to another commodity and lumber will come crashing down. There is not a lumber shortage and currently lumber is being stored/warehoused because the lumber yards are so full. Go into any home improvement store or lumber yard and I bet you not a single rack is empty.....
WTF? First off, every home improvement store nad lumber yard I’ve been to in the last year is woefully low in stock - retailers do all sorts of tricks to keep merchandise on “the floor” - but look closely and you’ll see half-stacks up top and lots of empty stacks in the loading yard (plus piles that are so picked through they are largely worthless).
Second, the retail segment shows just a tiny fraction of the overall supply. The major movers don’t go to HOme Depot to buy some sticks - they buy truck-loads or rail-car loads at a time and at a discount. But they can’t get what they need because the supply is so constrained. Drive past the lumber mills (which I do) and you’ll see why: the yards that normally have acres of kiln-dried lumber waiting for trucks are just a fraction full.
Modern supply chains are remarkable things. What might look like an inexhaustible supply (whether its at Home Depot or at a lumber mill) is often just enough to last a week or so.
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It will come crushing down. Sooner than later the market manipulators will move on to another commodity and lumber will come crashing down. There is not a lumber shortage and currently lumber is being stored/warehoused because the lumber yards are so full. Go into any home improvement store or lumber yard and I bet you not a single rack is empty.....
WTF? First off, every home improvement store nad lumber yard I’ve been to in the last year is woefully low in stock - retailers do all sorts of tricks to keep merchandise on “the floor” - but look closely and you’ll see half-stacks up top and lots of empty stacks in the loading yard (plus piles that are so picked through they are largely worthless).
Second, the retail segment shows just a tiny fraction of the overall supply. The major movers don’t go to HOme Depot to buy some sticks - they buy truck-loads or rail-car loads at a time and at a discount. But they can’t get what they need because the supply is so constrained. Drive past the lumber mills (which I do) and you’ll see why: the yards that normally have acres of kiln-dried lumber waiting for trucks are just a fraction full.
Modern supply chains are remarkable things. What might look like an inexhaustible supply (whether its at Home Depot or at a lumber mill) is often just enough to last a week or so.
Yes, I'm pretty sure every word of that short thought is wrong. Shelves are empty, this isn't market manipulation, warehoused backup lumber is non existent (lumber is still soaking wet from the forest at my lumber yard, there is zero storage going on). There is a supply issue in that Canada is regulating logging more strictly and it just happens to coincide with a housing shortage and people working from home with stimulus checks (lots of projects). There are even more issues with making chemicals for OSB and other building supplies; many of those are made in Texas and they're still recovering from their statewide blackout. And low interest rates making more people able to afford houses rather than apartments... the list just goes on.
Futures are showing that prices are expected to drop this coming winter, but unlikely that we will ever see 2018 prices again.
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The stricter logging in Canada also comes after a period of tons of logging to make use of the bug-infected wood while it was still useful and to get the dying trees out of the woods so they wouldn't become a source of massive fires.
From planting to harvesting takes 80 years btw. So there ain't no quick fix on the supply side.
(this per the podcast linked to above).
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The spot price on the commodity market is falling a little, so that's good news. Here's some color: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plunge-lumber-contracts-signals-turning-165920128.html
I've family waiting to build a prefabricated home, and material prices are nuts. I'm told lumber is a little less "liquid" than other commodities too -- so, a big builder might be working from a pile of product sourced a few months ago, whereas the local gas station's prices rise and fall by the day. So, who knows when the retail consumer will see a benefit.
One thing, though... most of the lumber in my area of US is cut from the US southeast. It's not tariff issues for the lumber itself apparently, it's tariff issues with the chemicals used in the finished product, high demand, mills not being able to keep up. The "stump price" is actually pretty cheap (correction: ridiculously cheap, see link below)... it's the finished product that is sky high. Sort of like if crude was low, but the refineries couldnt keep up I guess?
http://www.timbermart-south.com/prices.html
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The fires on the West Coast have destroyed sawmills and still-growing lumber stock. The trees will re-grow eventually, but who knows if/when the sawmills will be rebuilt?
When we did a studs-out remodel in 2019, 2x4s were $2.04 each. Now they're around $7.00 and the quality is crap.
Those are actual data points, not "I bet..." Sheesh, Duke. If there's a prize for non-helpful answers, that's a front runner.
@joenorm, I'd probably wait, or re-prioritize my projects. OTOH, if paying extra doesn't utterly derail your budget, it might be just fine to get it done.
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The stricter logging in Canada also comes after a period of tons of logging to make use of the bug-infected wood while it was still useful and to get the dying trees out of the woods so they wouldn't become a source of massive fires.
From planting to harvesting takes 80 years btw. So there ain't no quick fix on the supply side.
(this per the podcast linked to above).
My understanding though is that there isn't a shortage of logs, just a bottleneck of processing at sawmills.
This may be different in Canada.
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I am going to wait it out. getting it done is not life or death. I priced out a "shell" lumber package and if was over $10K. This is for a small shed/shop!! It was feels wrong to be spending that kind of money.
Hopefully we are at a peak.
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Here is a pretty good article Vox had a couple weeks ago.
https://www.vox.com/22410713/lumber-prices-shortage
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I saw an ad for sandwiches the other day:
Club Sandwich - 8$
with toothpick - 20$
:P
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I saw an ad for sandwiches the other day:
Club Sandwich - 8$
with toothpick - 20$
:P
Could be in the stupid joke thread ...
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The fires on the West Coast have destroyed sawmills and still-growing lumber stock. The trees will re-grow eventually, but who knows if/when the sawmills will be rebuilt?
One concerning article mentioned that the super fires are different than normal wildfires in that even the seeds are dying from the extreme temperatures - some areas aren't expected to regrow at all, and will just turn to brushland. Hopefully not as much in NorCal, but a definite concern in SoCal. Wicker-frame houses, anyone?
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The fires out here have little to do with the lumber supply constraints - in fact, the salvage logging has depressed the price of the raw trees off the hill.
Feckless policy from our government has slowly squeezed alot of mills to the point of shutting down , as well as artificially limiting available labor by paying too many people to not work; mill work sucks so it's hard to get people there anyway. Mills have been slow to modernize because the real price of lumber was low for a long time (like, 25 years... with some blips during the 2006 housing boom and recently.) Many mills in the area shut down completely and will never re-open.
Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
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Lots of building materials have increased in price, albeit maybe not in such a spectacular fashion as NNorth American lumber. For me as a retail customer where in live in Norway prices are up maybe 50% compared to say 2 years ago. How it works for large orders I don't know, but the increased materials costs for building is being written about. Its for steel, wood and concrete and probably more as well. Add to that travel restrictions limiting the supply of foreign labor and you have it going. The contactors who priced a good while back and have in the contract that prices are adjusted for inflation are seeing their profit evaporate as building materials inflation is off the charts.
So until it recitfies, if it does, building is gonna cost more or quality - at least in the fancypants sense of the word - is gonna go down due to use of cheaper materials if end buyers cant afford much more.
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
PEX has largely replaced copper, not PVC.
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
PEX has largely replaced copper, not PVC.
Like i said, I don't know any builders who are installing PVC in new builds. Copper still seems to have its niche for high temperature and for old-timers who believe in it's longevity and don't mind its installation price or soldering and don't care/believe in its health and environmental impacts.
Most of the supply stores around here have cut back on their PVC fittings to make room for more PEX. Perhaps its different in your neck of the woods. I have noticed that there is an amazing among of region-specific fidelity in the trades.
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Nordic lumber prices are going up 20% now, and this is after a longer periode of relatively high prices. In addition to the international situation, the producers mention increased demand in the market due to more demand for green products. We have many public and private actors building increasingly many and large buildings in CLT (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mj%C3%B8st%C3%A5rnet), and the biobased industries such as Borregaard. Glommapapp and Norske Skog are steadily increasing their output. The timber stores at the bioindustry sites are not as low as they were last year, but the good prices and maturity of the forests that were planted en masse after the war has ensured that you can see empty spots in the landscapes many places. We might have a little bit more that can be cut down at our farm, in the steepest hills, but the best parts have already been harvested.
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
PEX has largely replaced copper, not PVC.
Like i said, I don't know any builders who are installing PVC in new builds. Copper still seems to have its niche for high temperature and for old-timers who believe in it's longevity and don't mind its installation price or soldering and don't care/believe in its health and environmental impacts.
Most of the supply stores around here have cut back on their PVC fittings to make room for more PEX. Perhaps its different in your neck of the woods. I have noticed that there is an amazing among of region-specific fidelity in the trades.
Not an old timer, but I'd prefer to have copper piping for potable water to PEX because of concerns about phthalates. PEX is better than PVC for this, but it still introduces these damaging plastics into your body. There's growing evidence that these phthalates are pretty bad news for people and we have way too many sources of contamination with them.
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
PEX has largely replaced copper, not PVC.
Like i said, I don't know any builders who are installing PVC in new builds. Copper still seems to have its niche for high temperature and for old-timers who believe in it's longevity and don't mind its installation price or soldering and don't care/believe in its health and environmental impacts.
Most of the supply stores around here have cut back on their PVC fittings to make room for more PEX. Perhaps its different in your neck of the woods. I have noticed that there is an amazing among of region-specific fidelity in the trades.
Not an old timer, but I'd prefer to have copper piping for potable water to PEX because of concerns about phthalates. PEX is better than PVC for this, but it still introduces these damaging plastics into your body. There's growing evidence that these phthalates are pretty bad news for people and we have way too many sources of contamination with them.
agreed re: pathalate, but i'm not sure copper (which itself is a heavy metal) is a the proper solution. Not surprisingly given its toxicity and location on the periodic table but there's a growing amount of corollary evidence linking copper pipes to metal diseases like alzheimer's.
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
PEX has largely replaced copper, not PVC.
Like i said, I don't know any builders who are installing PVC in new builds. Copper still seems to have its niche for high temperature and for old-timers who believe in it's longevity and don't mind its installation price or soldering and don't care/believe in its health and environmental impacts.
Most of the supply stores around here have cut back on their PVC fittings to make room for more PEX. Perhaps its different in your neck of the woods. I have noticed that there is an amazing among of region-specific fidelity in the trades.
Not an old timer, but I'd prefer to have copper piping for potable water to PEX because of concerns about phthalates. PEX is better than PVC for this, but it still introduces these damaging plastics into your body. There's growing evidence that these phthalates are pretty bad news for people and we have way too many sources of contamination with them.
agreed re: pathalate, but i'm not sure copper (which itself is a heavy metal) is a the proper solution. Not surprisingly given its toxicity and location on the periodic table but there's a growing amount of corollary evidence linking copper pipes to metal diseases like alzheimer's.
hmm . . . dammit. But those are the only options we have!
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
PEX has largely replaced copper, not PVC.
Like i said, I don't know any builders who are installing PVC in new builds. Copper still seems to have its niche for high temperature and for old-timers who believe in it's longevity and don't mind its installation price or soldering and don't care/believe in its health and environmental impacts.
Most of the supply stores around here have cut back on their PVC fittings to make room for more PEX. Perhaps its different in your neck of the woods. I have noticed that there is an amazing among of region-specific fidelity in the trades.
Not an old timer, but I'd prefer to have copper piping for potable water to PEX because of concerns about phthalates. PEX is better than PVC for this, but it still introduces these damaging plastics into your body. There's growing evidence that these phthalates are pretty bad news for people and we have way too many sources of contamination with them.
agreed re: pathalate, but i'm not sure copper (which itself is a heavy metal) is a the proper solution. Not surprisingly given its toxicity and location on the periodic table but there's a growing amount of corollary evidence linking copper pipes to metal diseases like alzheimer's.
hmm . . . dammit. But those are the only options we have!
Maybe we should go back to the original pipes - lead!
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Lumber is not unique in this either, go price PVC pipe.
My understanding was that PVC has largely suffered as it's being replaced almost entirely by PEX. The volume of small-diameter PVC (1" or smaller) sold has dropped by an order of magnitude in the last decade. I don't know any builders who still install PVC in new builds.
Price of larger diameter PVC (e.g. 4" or 6") seems largely unchained, at least in our region.
PEX has largely replaced copper, not PVC.
Like i said, I don't know any builders who are installing PVC in new builds. Copper still seems to have its niche for high temperature and for old-timers who believe in it's longevity and don't mind its installation price or soldering and don't care/believe in its health and environmental impacts.
Most of the supply stores around here have cut back on their PVC fittings to make room for more PEX. Perhaps its different in your neck of the woods. I have noticed that there is an amazing among of region-specific fidelity in the trades.
Not an old timer, but I'd prefer to have copper piping for potable water to PEX because of concerns about phthalates. PEX is better than PVC for this, but it still introduces these damaging plastics into your body. There's growing evidence that these phthalates are pretty bad news for people and we have way too many sources of contamination with them.
agreed re: pathalate, but i'm not sure copper (which itself is a heavy metal) is a the proper solution. Not surprisingly given its toxicity and location on the periodic table but there's a growing amount of corollary evidence linking copper pipes to metal diseases like alzheimer's.
hmm . . . dammit. But those are the only options we have!
Maybe we should go back to the original pipes - lead!
I've been hearing good things about the healthy green glow of radium pipes.
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We'll have to go back to paper pipes!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orangeburg_pipe
I also have seen PEX replacing PVC. I sure wouldn't run PVC for supply lines at this point. I just did my first PEX installation - plumbing in my workshop - and it went very smoothly. I might have done copper except there's freezing risk out there and the only reason I had to do the re-plumbing was because the old pipes froze and burst. While I'm more careful than the previous owners, knowing that there's more freeze/thaw leeway in the PEX stuff is a comfort.
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We'll have to go back to paper pipes!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orangeburg_pipe
Less than a decade ago my town in California had to update it's water mains, which were (I kid you not) redwood pipes. As in, wooden pipes made from redwood, installed around the 1920. One was 42" in diameter IIRC, and served the community for almost a century.
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PVC is generally never been used inside houses, especially for hot water. I think it's even a code thing.
PVC is used alot for the piping bringing water too the house underground, alsi in the drainage system (ABS is used here too) and for underground electrical service conduit. I am using alot more footage for these things than for the PEX stuff in the house.
I think the logo that JP Morgan Chase uses traces it's origin to wooding water distribution piping, as an aside.
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PVC is generally never been used inside houses, especially for hot water. I think it's even a code thing.
PVC is used alot for the piping bringing water too the house underground, alsi in the drainage system (ABS is used here too) and for underground electrical service conduit. I am using alot more footage for these things than for the PEX stuff in the house.
I think the logo that JP Morgan Chase uses traces it's origin to wooding water distribution piping, as an aside.
Thinking previous poster was referring to CPVC, which has been used inside houses and for hot water?
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We'll have to go back to paper pipes!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orangeburg_pipe
I also have seen PEX replacing PVC. I sure wouldn't run PVC for supply lines at this point. I just did my first PEX installation - plumbing in my workshop - and it went very smoothly. I might have done copper except there's freezing risk out there and the only reason I had to do the re-plumbing was because the old pipes froze and burst. While I'm more careful than the previous owners, knowing that there's more freeze/thaw leeway in the PEX stuff is a comfort.
I too used PEX when repiping my utility room, because the old galvanized froze and broke. The pex froze this past winter, but didn't break, and combined with other improvements the freeze risk is lower than it used to be. I still prefer copper overall though. Just depends on the application.
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PVC is generally never been used inside houses, especially for hot water. I think it's even a code thing.
Thinking previous poster was referring to CPVC, which has been used inside houses and for hot water?
Yes, sorry - CPVC. It still installs the same way and has all the disadvantages of plastic without the benefits of PEX. PEX is amazing stuff to work with.
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Update: I talked to my lumber yard guy, dimensional lumber and plywood are starting to come down, manufactured building products (windows, engineered wood, roofing, etc) are not expected to come down in price this summer.
I got a new lumber package quote for my next project (2800 sf 4bd 3 ba) and it went from $82,000 (April) to $102,000 (June).
My concrete guy said a number of folks are postponing building.
This is in Oregon.
Numbers from the latest quote:
1/2" cdx plywood $90/sheet
5/8" cdx $94/sheet
2x6 stud length (103 5/8") $22 per stick
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Those prices are insane. Wow.
No home built playhouse this year, kids!
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DH, who pays more attention to these things, says prices are set to drop precipitously. Seems folks don't like to be gouged.
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DH, who pays more attention to these things, says prices are set to drop precipitously. Seems folks don't like to be gouged.
The futures contract has collapsed from its peak at almost 1700 dollars in early May, now its bit over 700. For comparison the lumber future hovered in the 3-400 area for most of 2019. It has rarely been over 400 for the last 30 years, albeit that does not take inflation during the period into account. The futures strip is fairly flat around 750 out to July 22 delivery. This does of course not say much about what the price will be, but it's what the market is pricing at the moment.
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The real question is how closely lumber prices in stores tracks with the futures market going the other way.
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Any price drop now and contractors will buy up everything they can.
My concrete guy is buying up all the re-bar at our local yard (of a specific size) that he can, just to cover the jobs he has lined up through the summer, knowing that kinda screws the other guys who just need small amounts.
Normally he'd just order what he needs and it would be there, now the fear of it not being there is driving this hoarding mentality, which he readily acknowledged.
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Any price drop now and contractors will buy up everything they can.
My concrete guy is buying up all the re-bar at our local yard (of a specific size) that he can, just to cover the jobs he has lined up through the summer, knowing that kinda screws the other guys who just need small amounts.
Normally he'd just order what he needs and it would be there, now the fear of it not being there is driving this hoarding mentality, which he readily acknowledged.
Ugh, sounds a lot like the Costco TP hoarding frenzy
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Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.
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Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future.
This sounds like a reasonable prediction.
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Down to $650 now. Timber!
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Futures down to 536. one tiny data point in favor of the transitory inflation prediction.
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In just another example about how none of the "experts" really know anything, just as recently as a few weeks ago I was seeing where analysts were saying prices would fall but remain well above the pre-pandemic price range of $350-400 because of x, y, and z. Now they're saying lumber futures are headed for $350 by year-end "but will they stay there?" They're clearly talking out of their asses, but that's nothing new.
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I saw an ad for sandwiches the other day:
Club Sandwich - 8$
with toothpick - 20$
:P
Could be in the stupid joke thread ...
Always a good read.
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Surprise surprise, lumber prices crash back to earth:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lumber-prices-1.6177016
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Just in time to make a backyard treehouse with the weather cooling down! Hooray!
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Surprise surprise, lumber prices crash back to earth:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/lumber-prices-1.6177016
I’ve been watching it come down with no small amount of relief!
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Studs are down to $3.50 around here. Don't know where they peaed I stopped looking when they hit $7 since I refused to buy one at that point.
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Studs are down to $3.50 around here. Don't know where they peaed I stopped looking when they hit $7 since I refused to buy one at that point.
Same here. $3.50. They touched $10 at the peak where we are.
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Sorry ladies . . . this stud is not for sale at any price. :P
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This worked out OK for me... I budgeted building a house with $50 sheathing and $7 2x4s... then the bank bungled my paperwork and delayed the start by 2 months. I watched in horror as sheathing went to like $90 and 2x4s as high as $9... then the prices came down a bit. My loan was then approved, so we waited a little longer to buy lumber. ended up getting nice 5-ply STR-1 sheathing for $19/sheet and will be under massively on my overall lumber budget.
Now, if only garage doors didn't currently have a 4 month lead time.