When will the RE shoe drop?

[kenmoremmm]

i'm thinking that by summer 2021, the RE market will see serious corrections as forebearances and evictions expose the delayed pain and suffering of the economy.

thoughts?

top is in.

[franklin4]

Could be. But rates are so darn low and aren't supposed to climb. And seems like there is enough demand that supply would have to really shoot up for a correction to happen. I'd like to buy another property so a nice correction would be ok with me - but I don't see that happening. If forbearances end and that starts to have a big impact I think Biden would feel obligated to say sorry and extend forbearance. Same with evictions, I have an easier time seeing government paying rent than government letting many many people get evicted.

[Paper Chaser]

If all of these evictions and foreclosures come to fruition, then there's a large part of society that all need to find new housing at the same time. But they'll all have recent evictions/foreclosures on their record, so who will rent to them? It seems like Government/Fed policy has changed fundamentally since 2008 and they're more than happy to backstop just about everything now, so I see a bunch of government money bailing out somebody before this really gets bad for millions of people.

[marty998]

Why do you Americans always think there is gonna be a real estate crash all the time?

I've been here 8 years and I've never really understood that mindset.

[Paper Chaser]

Why do you Americans always think there is gonna be a real estate crash all the time?

I've been here 8 years and I've never really understood that mindset.

I think a lot of posters here were either "coming of age" or just beginning their careers/investing during the housing crisis of 2008-2009. Historically speaking, housing prices in the US haven't seen much of a decrease in times of economic struggle, but the largest decrease in housing prices in the last 50-60 years was during the most recent major recession (not including 2020). So the only exposure that a lot of people here have to home prices dropping was probably also the largest one in memory (shaded areas indicate recessions):



With the Fed changing their policies since the last major recession, and keeping interest rates at historic lows, I'm not expecting much of a drop. A flattening is about the most that I'm expecting personally.