So I asked basically this question a while ago on here, and you should see
that thread. Goldlielocks, chastakavitch (sp?), and others gave great info. They even listed a ton of things.
Short answer: yes, your cost of living can explode. See that post. See that NYTimes calculator. (Rent does not equal mortgage payment; there's a lot more that goes into it, and I see you've listed some of those things already.)
I'm unfamiliar with your country, but here are a few observations to consider:
1. I don't see any move-in costs and other fix-up things listed. (See post above.)
2. For maintenance, many folks recommend 1% of purchase price, which would be $3.5k, no? And maybe more for older properties or ones w/ issues.
3. TONS of undiscussed expectations that come with housing and owning: talk, talk, talk to your wife about this. She may want the lawn a certain way, things to look a certain way, etc., all of which costs money. For some reason, it comes out more when you own a place. (In your case, I would be especially careful because your lady already wants a house for non-financial reasons - which I understand, as I do too, but it can also signal other reasons/desires that you'll want to explore, so you both know what you're getting into.)
4. Interest rate risk, too? Here, we get fixed-rate loans. I would be extremely hesitant to take on a note with a 30-year interest-rate risk attached.
5. How much will tax rates rise? I have many friends who're being crushed by taxes as they have more than doubled in a relatively short period, and are going up 10%/year. That kind of compounding hurts.
6. Ditto utilities. Those can jump quickly too, and your baseline will likely be higher for a home and/or place you own (unless it's similar size and composition to what you now rent).
7. Do you have homeowners associations and the like? Fees, etc. Other taxing entities? (Schools, etc.?)
Consider all those things. But most importantly, see the considerations on that other thread.
The interest rate alone would make me very wary of doing a large mortgage there relative to my disposable income/assets. What if rates hit 15% again, as they did in the 80s? Wages tend to be slower to catch up. Good luck with that.
I don't say that to raise fears - it shouldn't be about emotions as much - but to point out that this has happened in recent living memory. I would be wary of making many predictions of what might happen 30 years out, whether it's interest rates or Dow projections or whatever. You could be taking on something that raises your risk of financial catastrophe significantly.
Maybe she will buy in to save more, since she wants the house, and then you could do it less on debt? Just a thought.
Anyway, just leaving all this here for your consideration.
