1. Who has found NBHDScout.com to report appreciation rates incorrectly?
2. The 9-11% appreciation rates are from my actual experience over 4 decades in two different markets. The 11% is from the SFBay Area. It has been sustainable for at least 40 years. And yes, housing here does pretty much dominate your budget. Ask anyone trying to buy a $700,000 one bedroom condo unless they have equity through 11% annual appreciation. It is also very predictable. It happens pretty much every 10 years in pretty much the same areas.
C. Thanks for the err..welcome. I'd be happy to discuss any "history" that you think you are aware of on "other" forums. Because really, it should just be about the facts.
1. You know the answer to this, as I've seen you argue against it before. You may disagree, but you know who has found it inaccurate.
2. So one renting in SF has a rent that dominates their budget (is 99% of their budget, like I said in the post you quoted)? I doubt it. Maybe 40-50% at most. 40 years of 11% CAGR for rents would have it at a much higher percentage of their budget, and only growing each year. It'd literally be impossible to live there and have any money left for food, let alone anything else. Compare that with annual wages that have been mostly stagnant over that timeframe.
Finally, your anecdotal experience is probably not the best for someone else to bank on happening to them, or continuing. But okay, let's say they're going to vastly outperform inflation (unsustainable in the long term, and impossible over a wide area, but we'll pretend they pick the "perfect" spot). Can you tell them what that spot is? I know you've bought in Hawaii, SF, Vegas (how is that appreciation since you bought? I know we've appreciated 25% in the last year alone, but still way off the 06 peak), etc. Would you advise buying in SF and Hawaii now and expect to get 11% CAGR for the next few decades? If not, do you know where the next hotspot is? Are you claiming all places will see this type of growth, and the OP can purchase anywhere and assume 11% growth?
If you can't predict the next hotspot, it doesn't do the OP much good to say that there are some places that may experience that sort of growth. It'd be better for them to assume the average appreciation rates (I.e. inflation rates) or perhaps something slightly more conservative. Either way, the 11% is irrelevant.
//I wrote all this, then questioned why I'm engaging him, given the below. My apologies, everyone.
C(?). Sure. Wanted to give you fair warning. Happy to have you here, but this forum doesn't tolerate trolling. I normally wouldn't start that way, but given your past I had to mention it. If you would like to discuss more, feel free to PM me your thoughts on early-retirement.org, Bogleheads, etc.
