The 15-year term makes this look like a worse deal than it really is by increasing the spread between the cash return and the total return. Even at net-zero cash flow you're building almost $10K a year in equity (and rising over time). If you pay it off on schedule using only your tenants' money, that's $120K in 12 years. If we assume no cash flow and no appreciation, that's a total return of 80%, which equates to 5% compounded annually.
It'd be enough to hold onto if you had good long-term prospects for appreciation and continued quality tenants; however, as you've mentioned, there's a real potential downside in the regional economic uncertainty. Your high tax bill could get even worse, if area values tank and rates are increased to preserve revenue, and just one major repair or improvement could nuke a whole year's returns in a heartbeat. If it were mine, I'd probably sell and buy multifamilies, but even your average ETF should beat this return in the long run. Your call. :)
