We have a house in Tampa that we bought in 2010 for $143K. Zillow says $220K, we're hoping to get $200-$210K. We owe $90K. We're planning to move to Canada in May / June 2020. I'm starting to get nervous about a real estate market crash in the intervening 8 or so months. Would it make sense to sell now?
This could look a couple of different ways:
1) Sell in Dec / Jan, move in Dec / Jan.
Pros - sell before potential crash (hopefully), don't carry two house payments
Cons - DW probably wouldn't work until May at the earliest. Since we'd be pulling our 4 year old DD out of pre-school, we'd probably just keep her home rather than start her somewhere new for the spring. If DW kept working here through May, that's ~$20K. Plus, DW doesn't want to move to Canada from Florida in the winter. :)
2) Sell now, rent locally, move in May / Jun
Pros - sell before potential crash (hopefully), DD finishes school, DW works, don't carry two house payments
Cons - moving costs x2, have to rent (~1300-1600 per month, maybe more for a short term lease), hassle of moving twice
Personally, I'm leaning towards just waiting and selling when we're ready to move. It's true that our house price could go down, but either of the above plans effectively guarantees a loss of ~$15K, plus hassle. However, I'm curious what other people think. Currently, things in our neighborhood are selling well.
In terms of our overall financial picture, missing out on tens of thousands in gains on our house wouldn't make much of a difference (as crazy as that feels to say). We've got ~$40K in cash, ~$70K in a taxable account, ~$100K in 457s (which we can touch as soon as we leave our current jobs) and ~$600K in retirement accounts. In other words, we can come up with a down payment for our next house regardless. Worst case scenario would be market totally tanks, we clear nothing on the house, and have to sell some index funds at a low ebb from either our taxable or 457s. That would be a pretty big drop, though, and we could always just rent for a year or two to let things come back / save cash. It doesn't feel particularly likely to me that we'd sell the house for less than $150K or so, in which case we'd clear plenty for a down payment.
Finally, this is predicated on my getting a remote job (I have a 2nd interview next week). I think the odds are good, though, as I also have a second option if the first one doesn't come through. If I don't get a remote job, I don't think we'd consider moving in Dec / Jan.
If you have any questions, please ask. And thanks for your opinions!