To the OP-- Bainbridge is not blue collar. It is where my corporate lawyer lives.
Right, but why is BI so fancy and Bremerton isn't? They're both a short ferry ride from downtown Seattle, and BI wasn't always an enclave of elitism. It used to be rural farmland just like everywhere else on the peninsula, but for some reason rich folks started walling themselves up there and not around Bremerton.
Maybe because the BI ferry is a little shorter ride? If that's the only reason, then Bremerton should start seeing growth just like Lynwood/Mukilteo/Marysville have, as people are willing to increase their commute to get more affordable housing.
TLDR:
Puget Sound Naval Shipyard (PSNS) was established in Bremerton in 1891 and has been the economic core since. In the last 60-70 years that has ensured comparably lower-income wages, low-income naval housing, and put it on a path to slower growth than BI, and other Seattle suburbs, which transformed from rural directly to suburb, then wealthy suburb without an industrial albatross. If Bremerton does begin to serve as a Seattle suburb it will be because the county consistently provides reliable ferry services to Seattle and begin to meet the needs of more affluent Seattle commuters. In such a case the ROI on RE in Bremerton may beat other Seattle bedroom communities.
Longer version:In my opinion the shorter ferry ride is a tremendous recent improvement to the community of Bremerton. However, it is run by Kitsap County, not Washington State. Currently there are only 3 boats from Bremerton to Seattle in the mornings, and they are sold out a month in advance. Clearly a passenger ferry it won't transform Bremerton into BI, but it could present characteristics similar to the neighborhoods SOL mentioned: Lynwood/Mukilteo/Marysville.
If Bremerton were a blank slate, then perhaps the ferry ride time would put it on more equal footing to Lynwood/Mukilteo/Marysville. In my opinion there is 60+ years of economic and cultural history creating path dependency for each community. Past choices manifest in divergent communities, which attract different home buyers, exasperating the economic differences.
Bremerton has some affluent enclaves, but also has entrenched poverty, small tax base, and marginal social services. PSNS and naval housing will ensure that there is a continuous low-income population in Bremerton. People living in Bremerton for short periods, such as naval families, will continue to vote against raising taxes to invest in schools, infrastructure and businesses that could provide faster growth. That's a structural impediment to growth.
Additionally, there are legacy issues which the community must overcome. Bremerton does not have a broad economic base of business- it relies upon PSNS and commuting to Seattle. The Bremerton housing stock is older, and many are poorly maintained. Even if you live in one of the affluent communities within Bremerton your community tax base and voting patterns are those of a poor community that votes for low levels of taxation and resulting low levels of infrastructure and community services. That is a different culture than affluent bedroom communities of Seattle, and culture clash is real.
Today Bainbridge Island has better schools, better roads, better services, wonderful and expensive grocery stores, lower crime, higher incomes, and a better proximal environment. The houses are modern and well maintained because the population has disposable income. These desirable characteristics attract more wealthy people, driving up prices. The wealthy people have more disposable income and vote for higher taxes, then use taxes to create better infrastructure and community services, which increase real estate prices thereby contributing to the exclusiveness of BI. In my experience, BI can also be shockingly elitist, racist and unwelcoming. These characteristics are not unique to BI, but it is also not a utopia.
What does the OP want? If the OP is speculating on real estate appreciation, then Bremerton presents a lower cost of entre, and may present a faster rate of appreciation
*if* Bremerton does begin to serve as a Seattle suburb and begins to gentrify. To me, this may occur
*if* Bremerton can consistently provide reliable ferry services much more frequently to Seattle, and begin to meet the needs of more affluent Seattle commuters. Remember, this is the county providing the ferry, not the state, as is the case in most of the Puget Sound.
If I were the OP, then I'd also look at the immediate suburbs that SOL mentioned: Lynwood/Mukilteo/Marysville. I'd also look at West Seattle, White Center, and Renton. I'd look quite closely at Shoreline as close as possible to the projected light rail station. None of these suburbs will have the low level of entre as Bremerton, but the also won't rely upon overcoming the entrenched problems of Bremerton while simultaneously having Kitsap County successfully operating a ferry service to Seattle. That said, if Bremerton pulls it off, then the ROI may beat other Seattle bedroom communities.