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Learning, Sharing, and Teaching => Real Estate and Landlording => Topic started by: Frugal D on July 13, 2014, 03:20:45 PM

Title: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: Frugal D on July 13, 2014, 03:20:45 PM
Recently posted on a specific house I was looking at in Seattle, but wanted to take a more macro view of the Seattle market with the forum if there are any NW-Mustachians out there.

Any real estate agents or economists amongst us who can shed some light on the value of the Seattle market right now? To me, it just looks a little over-bought. But I know Amazon, Microsoft, start-ups, etc. have the potential to drive it higher still.

Any thoughts and opinions would be greatly appreciated.
Title: Re: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: Cressida on July 13, 2014, 09:54:45 PM
I've lived here my whole life. During the downturn (approximately 2007-2011), houses were going down in value (we bought a house up in Kenmore in 2003 and sold it at a small loss in 2011). Other than that period, I have never experienced anything other than a booming market here. If you're looking to buy, do it now. Don't wait.
Title: Re: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: sol on July 13, 2014, 10:11:10 PM
There is a whole blog devoted to this topic.  Hundreds of posts, with graphs and everything.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/
Title: Re: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: arebelspy on August 11, 2014, 10:18:52 AM
There is a whole blog devoted to this topic.  Hundreds of posts, with graphs and everything.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/

Looking at the URL, I sense no bias whatsoever.  ;)

I see the domain was registered in 06.. I wonder what the 09-12 posts were like?  (I.e. did they advocate for a good time to buy?  When did they switch back to saying it was a new bubble?)

I wouldn't personally buy in Seattle, because I buy for cash flow, and there's not much to be found there, but the doom and gloom ZeroHedge type sites don't have a lot of sway with me, no matter how many charts and graphs they post.
Title: Re: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: waltworks on August 11, 2014, 12:25:58 PM
Largest population cohort in the USA right now is the 19-24s. Guess when most of them will start having kids? Yep, in the next few years and for a solid decade going forward. Guess who buys their first house? Someone about to have a kid.

I would never suggest buying just to gamble on appreciation but I am very bullish on housing in the near/medium term. Demographics are favorable almost everywhere in the US.

-W

There is a whole blog devoted to this topic.  Hundreds of posts, with graphs and everything.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/

Looking at the URL, I sense no bias whatsoever.  ;)

I see the domain was registered in 06.. I wonder what the 09-12 posts were like?  (I.e. did they advocate for a good time to buy?  When did they switch back to saying it was a new bubble?)

I wouldn't personally buy in Seattle, because I buy for cash flow, and there's not much to be found there, but the doom and gloom ZeroHedge type sites don't have a lot of sway with me, no matter how many charts and graphs they post.
Title: Re: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: arebelspy on August 11, 2014, 12:37:18 PM
Largest population cohort in the USA right now is the 19-24s. Guess when most of them will start having kids? Yep, in the next few years and for a solid decade going forward. Guess who buys their first house? Someone about to have a kid.

I would never suggest buying just to gamble on appreciation but I am very bullish on housing in the near/medium term. Demographics are favorable almost everywhere in the US.

-W

An article on this exact thing on Business Insider from yesterday: http://www.businessinsider.com/calculated-risk-demographics-2014-8
Title: Re: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: waltworks on August 11, 2014, 06:10:30 PM
Yeah, CR has been talking about that for a few years. Great stuff, he's one of the very, very few people who don't try to make numbers fit his preconceived ideas about how things should work or sell you a newsletter of stock picks. Truly impartial, truly geeky, and entertaining too.

Plus, he admits when he's wrong, exhaustively shows how and why he blew a prediction, and can laugh at himself.

-W
Title: Re: Seattle Real Estate Market
Post by: PilotsWife on August 13, 2014, 11:21:50 PM
There is a whole blog devoted to this topic.  Hundreds of posts, with graphs and everything.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/

Looking at the URL, I sense no bias whatsoever.  ;)

I see the domain was registered in 06.. I wonder what the 09-12 posts were like?  (I.e. did they advocate for a good time to buy?  When did they switch back to saying it was a new bubble?)

I wouldn't personally buy in Seattle, because I buy for cash flow, and there's not much to be found there, but the doom and gloom ZeroHedge type sites don't have a lot of sway with me, no matter how many charts and graphs they post.

According to a current post, he started the blog in 05 & was calling it a bubble at that point. Tim bought a house in 2011 and claimed that the market hadn't yet bottomed out (which was accurate in hindsight). Now he's posting saying that the market is getting bubble-ish. I've followed his blog for a while & I really enjoy it.