Author Topic: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?  (Read 2761 times)

SubL stache

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Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« on: March 01, 2020, 06:45:49 AM »
How does the market, the fed rate, and/or the treasury yield impact 30YR fixed mortgages if they do at all?  Should I expect to see rates fall even more this week?  We just went under contract on a home yesterday. 

habanero

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2020, 08:33:42 AM »
How does the market, the fed rate, and/or the treasury yield impact 30YR fixed mortgages if they do at all?  Should I expect to see rates fall even more this week?  We just went under contract on a home yesterday.

The 30y treasury has dropped massively. Yield is around 0.50% lower than peak of February, about 0.35% lower than start of Feruary. 0.75% lower than start of the year. The fed rate has quite low impact on 30y yields. The treasury market is pricing in around 3 rate cuts from the Fed this year.

Current 30y yield is around 1.65%. It can go lower, it can shoot much higher. If yields stay down here or move even lower mortgage rates should eventually follow suit, but not neccessarily with a 1:1 ratio. Treasury yields, like the stock market, has been extremely volatile last couple of weeks. Big moves every day, but it's been a pretty one-way driven street.

nereo

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2020, 09:53:28 AM »
Adding...

Mortgage rates typically drop slowly, but rise quickly. It will take several months of sustained 1.6x% 10y treasury rates for mortgage rates to hit bottom.  Banks are basically judging whether bonds will remain low for years (e.g. the typical amortization of a home, which is around 7 years for a 30 year note), or if these current low bond yields are likely to be just a 6-12 month thing.

habanero

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2020, 10:13:08 AM »
Fun fact: US mortgage borrowers pay in the area of 0.50-0.60% extra interest for the possibility of refinancing on a 30y mortgage. In finance terms the borrower is long a payer option and the banks ain't giving those out for free.

SubL stache

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2020, 07:03:31 AM »
Well, I locked in yesterday.  Got a 2.875% 30YR fixed on bi-weekly payments.

LearningMustachian72

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #5 on: March 03, 2020, 02:59:28 PM »
Mind sharing who with?

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #6 on: March 03, 2020, 03:13:08 PM »
Yes, please tell. Just refinanced in October, but that is nearly 1% lower than our current rate - might be worth it to refinance again . . . our house / loan might be too small for the very best rates though.

SubL stache

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #7 on: March 03, 2020, 04:29:16 PM »
With Regions bank, but this is a purchase not a refi (I think refi is a bit higher for some reason).

The next best option was Ally bank, 3% for 30YR fixed, with 1600 in lender credits.

LateStarter1

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #8 on: March 03, 2020, 04:55:12 PM »
Just locked in a refi yesterday with SoFi. 3.00% flat interest rate 0 points. 30 year fixed, monthly payments. Waived appraisal since we have a lot of equity right now as well. Was at 4.25%. Super happy we got that.

LearningMustachian72

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2020, 08:14:01 AM »
I have an offer for 3% 30 year fixed with $3,885 closing costs, which includes appraisal and title work...good deal?

Currently on a 30 year fixed at 3.5% but also have PMI so it is actually 4.34%.

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2020, 08:15:57 AM »
I have an offer for 3% 30 year fixed with $3,885 closing costs, which includes appraisal and title work...good deal?

Currently on a 30 year fixed at 3.5% but also have PMI so it is actually 4.34%.
Will you still have PMI after the refinance? How much is the loan?

LearningMustachian72

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2020, 08:16:41 AM »
I will be right on the edge of 20% equity pending the appraisal. 

I have $308k on the loan.

nereo

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2020, 08:17:03 AM »
I have an offer for 3% 30 year fixed with $3,885 closing costs, which includes appraisal and title work...good deal?

Currently on a 30 year fixed at 3.5% but also have PMI so it is actually 4.34%.

It depends a great deal on how large your loan is.  For my loan (~$140k) it wouldn't be very good at all.  If you have a jumbo mortgage - say $650k - the closing costs matter less as the $s-saved-per-month are much greater and will cover the closing costs very quickly.


LearningMustachian72

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2020, 08:19:49 AM »
I did the math and it would be roughly 9-10 months if I have achieved 20% equity.

That is the true wildcard though...if they do the appraisal and I am not at 20%, will that impact the rate?  Or do I simply have to pay for another appraisal ($450 or so) once I reach 20% equity and that is it?

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2020, 09:08:30 AM »
I did the math and it would be roughly 9-10 months if I have achieved 20% equity.

That is the true wildcard though...if they do the appraisal and I am not at 20%, will that impact the rate?  Or do I simply have to pay for another appraisal ($450 or so) once I reach 20% equity and that is it?
Appraisals seem to almost always conform to the loan.

Now the only question is whether you plan keeping the loan for longer than 10 months. If so, proceed

caleb

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2020, 11:15:23 AM »
Looks like average rates for a 30 year are about 3.3% today.  Some finance folks say averages will continue down if Treasuries stay low for long enough, others say there's something of a hard floor above an average of 3%.  And, to be fair, this is all speculation since there's no modern precedent for average 30 year rates below 3% in the US.

So, do you think average 30 year rates can or will break 3% in the foreseeable future?

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2020, 11:38:28 AM »
I did the math and it would be roughly 9-10 months if I have achieved 20% equity.

That is the true wildcard though...if they do the appraisal and I am not at 20%, will that impact the rate?  Or do I simply have to pay for another appraisal ($450 or so) once I reach 20% equity and that is it?
Appraisals seem to almost always conform to the loan.

Now the only question is whether you plan keeping the loan for longer than 10 months. If so, proceed

We just refinanced and the appraisal did not quite conform to the loan meaning we had to bring a few hundred extra dollars to closing to make it work. Basically we received a slightly better rate for being under 75% LTV and it was worth paying the small amount to get us there. I agree with Nereo though, if you're planning to be for more than 10 months go for it.

nereo

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2020, 11:58:32 AM »
Just to comment ont he title of this thread - the stock market is not what drives mortgage rates.  Those are primarily driven by the 10y and 30y treasury bills.  Of course, there is a negative correlation... when the stock market looks risky money pours into bonds, driving yields down.  It also helps when the Fed sets borrowing rates at very low levels.

In practice, banks want to earn a slightly better return than what is offered on government bonds. Even though mortgages tend to be 30y notes, very few are carried to term, as people move or refinance on average every 7 years or so.  Which is why the 10y treasury note matters so much. 

Currently those sit at an historic 0.99%   For comparison, for most of the previous 75 years they have sat somewhere between 3.00% and 6.00%. Even during the last 'low-interest' decade rates were typically above 2%  During the 1970s and early 80s they routinely sat above 8% and briefly exceeded 12%.

As noted - we have no historic analog for bond rates being so low.  So yes, I think if the banks decide that the next ~5-7 years we will see rates well below 2% we might see 30y mortgages below 3%. 

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2020, 01:02:05 PM »
Just to comment ont he title of this thread - the stock market is not what drives mortgage rates.  Those are primarily driven by the 10y and 30y treasury bills.  Of course, there is a negative correlation... when the stock market looks risky money pours into bonds, driving yields down.  It also helps when the Fed sets borrowing rates at very low levels.

In practice, banks want to earn a slightly better return than what is offered on government bonds. Even though mortgages tend to be 30y notes, very few are carried to term, as people move or refinance on average every 7 years or so.  Which is why the 10y treasury note matters so much. 

Currently those sit at an historic 0.99%   For comparison, for most of the previous 75 years they have sat somewhere between 3.00% and 6.00%. Even during the last 'low-interest' decade rates were typically above 2%  During the 1970s and early 80s they routinely sat above 8% and briefly exceeded 12%.

As noted - we have no historic analog for bond rates being so low.  So yes, I think if the banks decide that the next ~5-7 years we will see rates well below 2% we might see 30y mortgages below 3%.

Thanks for the clearly written summary Nereo. Few mortgage brokers I've talked to have summarized as clearly.

Anecdote on the bold part: In late 2011 I thought I might as well take advantage and borrow some money at 3% because there has to be some serious inflation with all this QE... 9 years later and still inflation is low and interest rates are back down in the same region... It was still a good deal but it turns out interest rates can stay pretty low for way longer than I ever imagined without crazy inflation...

Your point about most people moving or refinancing within 7 years is a good one that it seems a lot of people miss out on. Personally I saved 1% on the above loan because I did the math and took a 10/1 ARM. As is stands I should either sell next year while it's still a PR for 2 of the last 5 years or start look at refi rates for rental properties... But even if I do nothing and the rate went up my the maximum amount possible it would still be another 7 years before the cost caught up with the 30 year fixed option I had at the time.

nereo

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2020, 01:10:44 PM »


Your point about most people moving or refinancing within 7 years is a good one that it seems a lot of people miss out on. Personally I saved 1% on the above loan because I did the math and took a 10/1 ARM. As is stands I should either sell next year while it's still a PR for 2 of the last 5 years or start look at refi rates for rental properties... But even if I do nothing and the rate went up my the maximum amount possible it would still be another 7 years before the cost caught up with the 30 year fixed option I had at the time.

The only reason we didn't go with a 5/1 ARM 6 months ago was because - paradoxically - the 5/1s were actually a few points higher than a 30y at the time of our signing.  We're relatively confident that we'll move to a new house within 4-6 years regardless.

While I typically don't advocate for 15y mortgages, I'm now wondering if I should go that route with re-financing, as the decrease in rate will almost entirely offset the increase in having 180 payments (vs the 360 of a 30y).  Or looking at it another way, with closing costs, refincing to a new 30y is just <$30/mo more than the 15y with the same closing costs but lower rate.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2020, 01:30:29 PM »


Your point about most people moving or refinancing within 7 years is a good one that it seems a lot of people miss out on. Personally I saved 1% on the above loan because I did the math and took a 10/1 ARM. As is stands I should either sell next year while it's still a PR for 2 of the last 5 years or start look at refi rates for rental properties... But even if I do nothing and the rate went up my the maximum amount possible it would still be another 7 years before the cost caught up with the 30 year fixed option I had at the time.

The only reason we didn't go with a 5/1 ARM 6 months ago was because - paradoxically - the 5/1s were actually a few points higher than a 30y at the time of our signing.  We're relatively confident that we'll move to a new house within 4-6 years regardless.

While I typically don't advocate for 15y mortgages, I'm now wondering if I should go that route with re-financing, as the decrease in rate will almost entirely offset the increase in having 180 payments (vs the 360 of a 30y).  Or looking at it another way, with closing costs, refincing to a new 30y is just <$30/mo more than the 15y with the same closing costs but lower rate.

I just helped some friends get started on that process and it made sense for them too. It didn't make sense for DW and I because the 7/1 arm and the 15 year were the same rate and I'm willing to bet a decent amount that we won't be here in seven years. I only considered options would pay off in less than 1 year and beat the zero cost refi option in less than 2 years...

Assuming the 30 year is $30 a month less than the 15 year? It seems to me that the math for your refinance would be ROI is "Interest saved per month" divided by " extra $30 paid"... Assuming that $30 buys you more than about $3 a month in saved interest it's better to put it to work on saving you interest than in an index...

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2020, 01:38:54 PM »
These are all guesstimate calculations over done based on previous closing costs and current rates. What matters is what is actually available to use if/when we decide to pull the trigger

Iíve decided Iím going to let this sit for a month or two. See if the 10y stays at/around 1%. Worst case we stick with a still very good 3.7%. Or maybe weíll nab a sub 3%   
My parents first mortgage was 9.9% (!)

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2020, 01:50:47 PM »
These are all guesstimate calculations over done based on previous closing costs and current rates. What matters is what is actually available to use if/when we decide to pull the trigger

Iíve decided Iím going to let this sit for a month or two. See if the 10y stays at/around 1%. Worst case we stick with a still very good 3.7%. Or maybe weíll nab a sub 3%   
My parents first mortgage was 9.9% (!)

That seems sensible to me. We were at 5% and now we are 3.375% I actually sold up the rate a little to keep the cost down to get the break even point under a year. Rates would need to get into the mid 2% range before it would temp me to do it again just because I don't think this is the place I want to be in seven years. If I'm still in the same area I'll probably build a house before then. The DIY options here are pretty much endless and no one cares what you build if it's your own money... I can focus on building for the location and climate rather than the standard american dream...

When was the 9.9% rate? I wonder if it was the same era my father decided to build a very basic house for cash rather than have a mortgage... Bought the land in the spring of '84, we lived on it in a tent all summer and he built the house in August.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2020, 01:55:51 PM by Alternatepriorities »

nereo

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2020, 02:23:40 PM »
1980. Of course 2 years later government bonds were yielding 12% and inflation topped 6% and stayed there for years

Parents refinanced 4 times since. Family joke is that they are 40 years into a 30 year mortgage and they only have 11 years left. Theyíve made a killing doing cash re-fiís and investing it each time. I think they are at 3.325 now. Guessing they wonít get another refi opportunity (they are both retired)

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2020, 02:42:10 PM »
1980. Of course 2 years later government bonds were yielding 12% and inflation topped 6% and stayed there for years

Parents refinanced 4 times since. Family joke is that they are 40 years into a 30 year mortgage and they only have 11 years left. Theyíve made a killing doing cash re-fiís and investing it each time. I think they are at 3.325 now. Guessing they wonít get another refi opportunity (they are both retired)

Same house for 40 years? Wow they're skewing the average. I guess my father has been in the same house now for 36. He was forced to take out a mortgage against it when my parents divorced but he's had it paid off for more than a decade now and he actually saves a little money each month out of his SS... He'd have been better off financially to do as your parents did, but he gets a lot of peace of mind knowing it's his. He even lives in one of the few places with no property tax.

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #25 on: March 04, 2020, 03:16:27 PM »
Yup, same house as the one I grew up in. Truth be told itís way bigger than they need but they love it and the neighborhood. My dad is the one who introduced the concept of not paying off your mortgage. He liked to say that some people slept better with no mortgage, but he preferred a big pile of money instead.

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #26 on: March 04, 2020, 04:14:07 PM »
Yup, same house as the one I grew up in. Truth be told itís way bigger than they need but they love it and the neighborhood. My dad is the one who introduced the concept of not paying off your mortgage. He liked to say that some people slept better with no mortgage, but he preferred a big pile of money instead.

Yeah, i prefer the pile of money too. I have come to realize in the last year or so that it probably makes sense to have no mortgage as certain points in life. When sending kids to college the lower income required would reduce the expected family contribution on the FAFSA... When trying to stay below one earnings cliff or another in FIRE, not needing the income to pay a mortgage would help and the same with trying to avoid taxes on SS. The rest of the time though I am in favor of keeping it. It's amazing how much more I've learned trying to help other people with their finances than when it was just mine. My life seems pretty simple in comparison.

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2020, 07:52:11 PM »
If anyone here can predict the movement of interest rates, you should be trading futures on 30 year treasuries instead of refinancing a single house. There are billions to be made for whomever has a crystal ball.

Perhaps I'm just bitter. I was on this board bragging about my 3.25% rate on a 15y refi just a few months ago. Had I held out, I could have gotten sub-3% rates and saved myself $22/month!

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2020, 08:00:25 PM »
Well, I locked in yesterday.  Got a 2.875% 30YR fixed on bi-weekly payments.

Holy shit! 

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2020, 12:46:39 AM »
If anyone here can predict the movement of interest rates, you should be trading futures on 30 year treasuries instead of refinancing a single house. There are billions to be made for whomever has a crystal ball.

Perhaps I'm just bitter. I was on this board bragging about my 3.25% rate on a 15y refi just a few months ago. Had I held out, I could have gotten sub-3% rates and saved myself $22/month!

Thatís a good point. Iíll quit kicking myself for refinancing a couple months early and only saving $190 a month...

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2020, 06:12:48 AM »
If anyone here can predict the movement of interest rates, you should be trading futures on 30 year treasuries instead of refinancing a single house. There are billions to be made for whomever has a crystal ball.

Perhaps I'm just bitter. I was on this board bragging about my 3.25% rate on a 15y refi just a few months ago. Had I held out, I could have gotten sub-3% rates and saved myself $22/month!

Thatís a good point. Iíll quit kicking myself for refinancing a couple months early and only saving $190 a month...

Agreed - perspective is important. Iíve been lamenting our rate (30y fixed) at 3.7%; in the end thatís still stupid cheap.  Sure, rates now are hovering around 3.2% but thatís about $40/mo difference. It adds up to be sure, but not like going from 4.8% (just three years ago) to 3.2%

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #31 on: March 09, 2020, 08:50:10 AM »
How do you all shop for refi mortgages?? I've got 10 years left of a 15-year loan at 3.25, but if I can get a 3.00 30-year note, I would jump on that opportunity.

SubL stache

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #32 on: March 09, 2020, 08:51:20 AM »
If anyone here can predict the movement of interest rates, you should be trading futures on 30 year treasuries instead of refinancing a single house. There are billions to be made for whomever has a crystal ball.

Perhaps I'm just bitter. I was on this board bragging about my 3.25% rate on a 15y refi just a few months ago. Had I held out, I could have gotten sub-3% rates and saved myself $22/month!

haha good point.  Perhaps I am being greedy, but the 10/30yr treasury is plummeting today/since I locked in.  I feel like there could be 30YR fixed below 2.875% available out there now...

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #33 on: March 09, 2020, 09:05:31 AM »

haha good point.  Perhaps I am being greedy, but the 10/30yr treasury is plummeting today/since I locked in.  I feel like there could be 30YR fixed below 2.875% available out there now...

Not that I have seen... but I hope you are right.  Mortgage rates fall more slowly than T-notes. 
The lowest I've seen so far without points is around 3.1%

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #34 on: March 09, 2020, 11:03:07 AM »

haha good point.  Perhaps I am being greedy, but the 10/30yr treasury is plummeting today/since I locked in.  I feel like there could be 30YR fixed below 2.875% available out there now...

Not that I have seen... but I hope you are right.  Mortgage rates fall more slowly than T-notes. 
The lowest I've seen so far without points is around 3.1%

Iím wary of internet ads and websites with surprisingly low rates and little to no mention of points (just give us all your information to lock in they say). I could collect all sorts of sales and telemarketing lists with a website offering 2.5% 30 year loans. Hereís a good source:


https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #35 on: March 09, 2020, 12:39:30 PM »
Iím wary of internet ads and websites with surprisingly low rates and little to no mention of points (just give us all your information to lock in they say). I could collect all sorts of sales and telemarketing lists with a website offering 2.5% 30 year loans. Hereís a good source:


https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/


Yeah I'm with you on that. When I first started looking to refinance I made it part way down that path with a couple of sites before realizing how much data they were collecting without actually telling me anything about the APR.

I like wells fargo's page for just getting a sense of what's changed and I did have good luck with Credible after seeing MMM's link. They emailed once or twice but didn't call or nag me about it and they provided the best list of options with costs clearly marked.

affordablehousing

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #36 on: March 09, 2020, 03:23:25 PM »
Just locked a 30 year refi on a jumbo loan at 2.75% with no fees or costs. We had been at 3.25% 18 months ago and I thought there was no way we'd ever be able to or need to refinance, and..... thank you political tumult and covid-19.

First Republic Bank, national lender, run there now!

Alternatepriorities

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #37 on: March 09, 2020, 04:01:42 PM »
Just locked a 30 year refi on a jumbo loan at 2.75% with no fees or costs. We had been at 3.25% 18 months ago and I thought there was no way we'd ever be able to or need to refinance, and..... thank you political tumult and covid-19.

First Republic Bank, national lender, run there now!

Congratulations!

affordablehousing

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #38 on: March 09, 2020, 04:14:15 PM »
Yeah I was pumped, then I remembered we lost about $80K this week in the market. Then I remembered I was fortunate to have a place to live.

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Re: Recent stock drop and mortgage rates?
« Reply #39 on: March 09, 2020, 04:35:54 PM »
Yeah I was pumped, then I remembered we lost about $80K this week in the market. Then I remembered I was fortunate to have a place to live.

And presumably you can afford it :)