Primary Home: Are you waiting to buy or trying to get in now?

[jeromedawg]

Thought this would be an interesting poll to throw out there and see what you guys are doing.

[Cassie]

Sold my house and bought a condo in our crazy market in March. I got into a bidding war and had to pay 20k over asking to get it. We got over asking for the house. Rents are insane and I wanted to lock in my housing quickly.

[tygertygertyger]

Made offers, didn't get anything. At this point I'm sick of thinking about houses so it's hard to drum up the interest to go see them. Weirdly, a house just came on the market that's priced reasonably and offers us most of what we're looking for, though it's looking a bit worn. A couple months ago I'd have jumped all over it and driven out that day... now we're debating if we even want to go see it.

[norajean]

How about those of us who just want out at these prices? Our place is up $800k since we bought it ten months ago.  We would never buy it at this price. May sell...

[jeromedawg]

How about those of us who just want out at these prices? Our place is up $800k since we bought it ten months ago.  We would never buy it at this price. May sell...

Good point. I added some poll options, as that would be interesting. Is your plan to sell, rent then re-buy on a dip?

Looking at the data, at some point prices *have* to dip - the questions are when the dip(s) will occur, how to identify them, and how much they'll have dipped. It seems at least in my area that there might be a slight 'dip' but it feels like we're on the rise again or that prices will be rising shortly. I think there may be another dip going into the end of the year but that's expected just because things seem to slow down going into the holidays anyway with real estate regardless.

[MaybeBabyMustache]

Semi related. We put our vacation house on the market due to the enormous price increase. It's unlikely we would have sold it any time soon if it wasn't for the property value change. We close in two weeks, and got a full price offer for 80% higher than we listed it for five years back.

We own a home in the bay area, and no current plans to sell our primary residence. We will revisit that when our kids are out of high school (four years to go).

[jeromedawg]

Just heard back on another property we bid on over the weekend. It was listed at barely under $900k. This is a 4bd/2ba 1425sq ft home with a nice pool and landscaping in the backyard (7200sq ft total lot). We initially put an offer in at $925k, then got an SMCO for highest and best offer with the seller's agent saying there were multiple offers coming in around $950k and that she was expecting even higher. So we upped our offer to $965k.
We also went into all of this having removed the appraisal and inspection contingencies and put well over 50% down in cash with a 14 day loan contingency, 25 day closing period and up to 60 days of free rentback for the seller. We were still outbid... there were apparently 10 other offers on the table and I can only imagine what the two highest bidders offered because they chose the two highest bidders to counter between for a post-escalation bidding war - this is at least going to sell in the $970s if not more if I had to guess... unless the buyers who win are hard-nosed and can negotiate them back down a lot more to get a deal out of it.
Highest selling recent comp in that neighborhood, which is a 4bd/2ba 1800sq ft+ home (they extended/added a grand living room) on an 7800sq ft+ lot but no pool, closed at $960k back in April... I think they may have bid higher but possibly negotiated down on that one but not sure. This has gotten insane, and I just don't think we can stomach it anymore. I think we're going to just put up with this 2/1 apartment for the next year, and on a month-to-month lease. If prices don't come down I'm really not sure what we're going to do... we'll either be forever-renters down here or we'll just have to give up the CA dream and move out of state (or country).

[Jenny Wren]

At this point we are expecting to be priced out of the rental market in +/- 5 years, and likely won't ever be able to buy unless something happens to crash these crazy prices and demand levels. Trying to ignore real estate after some false hopes in the late winter and spring, but possibly need to prepare for future homelessness. (We aren't now nor ever likely to be in the 6 figure or even median income range at our life stage, so trying to remain hopeful but it looks worse and worse every year. At least we have no debt...)

[JLee]

How about those of us who just want out at these prices? Our place is up $800k since we bought it ten months ago.  We would never buy it at this price. May sell...

Holy crap, if I was up $800k I might just sell and retire now!

[bryan995]

We are up big on our CA home, and do not plan to sell. +400k in 18months.  Considering a cash-out-refi to capitalize on the historically low rates and huge future risk of future inflation.  We would want to carry a huge amount of fixed-debt into inflationary times.

But are also looking into buying vacation/rental homes ... sort of seems like a now or potentially never type situation (eeek!)
I honestly do not see a housing crash coming, income continues to increase for high skilled jobs.

[catccc]

How about a buying/got in now option?

We've been looking on and off for the last 12 years.  Really, our almost teenager was an infant the first time we looked at a place.  I guess we always said we were waiting for the right place?  Our desires have changed over the years, too. 

Anyway, a dozen years of looking, made our first offer ever late last week, in this insane market.  Just found out it was accepted earlier this week.  We are paying $15K over asking, but I don't think the place is overpriced based on it's last sale in 2012.  What we will pay is pretty much the 2012 price adjusted for 2.5% inflation.  Not that inflation was necessarily 2.5% every year since 2012, but just as a benchmark.  Or I'm just rationalizing this so I don't feel crazy.  Also, inflation hedge with all the headlines out there?!

We were FI based on our prior rent, but it was significantly below market for our area and we weren't sure how long that party would last.  I suspect FI is another year away after our move, but hopefully the stability will be worthwhile.  I have heard in our area that rentals (which are hard to find, too) are getting offers to rent above asking.  That makes me nervous.  This craziness can't last forever, but at least we don't need to worry about it.  I know our landlord has gotten offers to buy our place, and we are month to month.

[economista]

We are getting ready to list our townhouse and buy a single family home. We have a baby and a toddler and our townhome community is great for DINKs for terrible for children. We have no yard at all and it feels like we are living next to a frat house. We are the only ones with little kids and our neighbors "hang out" in the alley every night playing loud music and drinking. I'm tired of trying to get the babies back to sleep after a drunken idiot woke them up, yelling in the alley. My husband is a stay at home dad and it looks like I'll be 90% teleworking forever now, so this house is just too small for us and our mental health.

What amazes me is the premium people are paying for townhouses in this market. For 20% more than what we expect our townhouse to sell for, we can get 2x the square footage in a single family home with a large yard.

[srad]

This should be clarified, this home you are buying as a primary, are you planning on living there for more than 5 years?  Or are you planning on selling it in 2 years for massive profits?  Those are two very different situations. If you are looking into the latter then yes, maybe you should put a pause on the search.  However if you are buying a home to raise a family in for the next decade, they go out and find the best home you can afford.  You may lose a few dozen offer, but when you eventually win, I'd be willing to bet in 10 years the home you felt you just overpaid for today is going to be worth much more then.

You buy a house on payments not price.  I've stated this before, a 3% rate on a 400k mortgage is the same as a 4% rate on a 350k mortgage.  Rates were 4% a year and a half ago.  This is one of the main factors for the increase in prices.  House costs more but the payments remain the same. 

Let me ask you this, if you buy a home for 500k now, do you think it will drop to 400k in 3 years?  Well, rent on a 500k house is conservatively 2500 a month.  In 3 years that's 90k in rent, more if the landlord raises rents each year (which I do).  Yes there is maintenance in owning, but if you buy a relatively  turn key home, maintenance should be minimal over a 3 year span. 

So sitting on the sidelines gets you what? another year of paying off someone else's mortgage.  Don't get me wrong, its tough as heck out there to buy, I'd be discouraged too and definitely more selective on the homes I choose to look at, but I'd still be looking.  Your home could pop up any day. 

In answer to the OP's post.  I'm always looking and at the start of the year, I bought a new primary house; Bidding war, escalation clause, all cash, 30 day close, as-is etc.  It's a fixer and we are getting closer to having it move in ready.  In the meantime, I'm about 30 days away from putting my current primary on the market, and I plan to make a killing when I sell it:) 

[Villanelle]

This should be clarified, this home you are buying as a primary, are you planning on living there for more than 5 years?  Or are you planning on selling it in 2 years for massive profits?  Those are two very different situations. If you are looking into the latter then yes, maybe you should put a pause on the search.  However if you are buying a home to raise a family in for the next decade, they go out and find the best home you can afford.  You may lose a few dozen offer, but when you eventually win, I'd be willing to bet in 10 years the home you felt you just overpaid for today is going to be worth much more then.

You buy a house on payments not price.  I've stated this before, a 3% rate on a 400k mortgage is the same as a 4% rate on a 350k mortgage.  Rates were 4% a year and a half ago.  This is one of the main factors for the increase in prices.  House costs more but the payments remain the same. 

Let me ask you this, if you buy a home for 500k now, do you think it will drop to 400k in 3 years?  Well, rent on a 500k house is conservatively 2500 a month.  In 3 years that's 90k in rent, more if the landlord raises rents each year (which I do).  Yes there is maintenance in owning, but if you buy a relatively  turn key home, maintenance should be minimal over a 3 year span. 

So sitting on the sidelines gets you what? another year of paying off someone else's mortgage.  Don't get me wrong, its tough as heck out there to buy, I'd be discouraged too and definitely more selective on the homes I choose to look at, but I'd still be looking.  Your home could pop up any day. 

In answer to the OP's post.  I'm always looking and at the start of the year, I bought a new primary house; Bidding war, escalation clause, all cash, 30 day close, as-is etc.  It's a fixer and we are getting closer to having it move in ready.  In the meantime, I'm about 30 days away from putting my current primary on the market, and I plan to make a killing when I sell it:)

Well, it gets me another year of paying someone else's mortgage, and probably an additional ~$15,000 invested. 

We just moved.  Rent is about $3600.  Purchase would be about $900,000 (smaller home in the neighborhood sold for just under that) and this is not a super updated house.  It has some of the original appliances (23 years old), for example.  So there's good reason to think maintenance wouldn't be minimal; if it was newer it would cost more to buy.  So by the time we paid all associated expenses, we'd be at least $1000 (veery conservatively) in the red compared to just writing that rent check.

I'm tired of being a renter.  (We do own a place the we rent out, as well.)  I want to paint walls and not go to battle with cheap landlords when the stove breaks and to be able to drill holes in walls with impunity and make changes or upgrades that fit our life.  But we just couldn't justify buying when it was simply so much cheaper to rent.  We got a 3 year lease with no increases, and that's likely how long we will live in this area. 

[srad]

I wasn't talking about an area where turn key homes are 1mm and up.  There, it makes sense to rent, 3600 for rent that's like a .3 rent to value.  I'll take that as a renter all day long. 

[Villanelle]

I wasn't talking about an area where turn key homes are 1mm and up.  There, it makes sense to rent, 3600 for rent that's like a .3 rent to value.  I'll take that as a renter all day long.

The house we own, on the opposite side of the country, is getting about .4 RtV (based on what it would sell for now, not what we paid years ago when we bought it).  I'm sure there are pockets of places that look much better than that, but it seems like much (or probably even most) of the country has these current crazy rent/purchase imbalances.  They seem to be the rule, rather than the exception.

[srad]

[\quote]
The house we own, on the opposite side of the country, is getting about .4 RtV (based on what it would sell for now, not what we paid years ago when we bought it).  I'm sure there are pockets of places that look much better than that, but it seems like much (or probably even most) of the country has these current crazy rent/purchase imbalances.  They seem to be the rule, rather than the exception.
[/quote]

Rents always lag price appreciation,  It will be interesting to see if/how quickly rents catch up.  I've also got a couple sub .5 rentals. I have always been a little under market on them, but not exactly asleep at the wheel either.  These last few years appreciation has well outpaced my rent increases.  Which is not the worst thing to happen to a real estate investor.  I'm slightly debating 1031'ing a few into better rent to value markets, but i just don't need that additional cash flow nor the additional units, yet.  So I'm riding the appreciation wave a little longer. 

I did a few years stint in NY, I could barely afford a home there so I decided to rent at a much lower monthly cost.  I was very happy with that decision, I stocked away a ton of money, had no headaches of owning a property and was able to focus on my career.  I really liked calling my landlord when something broke instead of spending all day fixing it myself.  However, if i would of been staying longer I'd of purchased a home, I just like having my own place whether its mustachian or not.  Which is why i said if you are looking for a long term house and the payments are affordable, buy it.  Don't worry if it goes up or down over the next several years, in 10+ odds are strong it will be worth more.

[pnw_guy]

We're looking for raw land to buy now with plans on building at a future date. Seems like raw land has had less of a run up compared to SFH's etc because (1) it's tougher to get financing to build a home and (2) people are looking for a house immediately and don't like the idea of having to wait to have a home built.

[Hawaiian]

This should be clarified, this home you are buying as a primary, are you planning on living there for more than 5 years?  Or are you planning on selling it in 2 years for massive profits?  Those are two very different situations. If you are looking into the latter then yes, maybe you should put a pause on the search.  However if you are buying a home to raise a family in for the next decade, they go out and find the best home you can afford.  You may lose a few dozen offer, but when you eventually win, I'd be willing to bet in 10 years the home you felt you just overpaid for today is going to be worth much more then.

You buy a house on payments not price.  I've stated this before, a 3% rate on a 400k mortgage is the same as a 4% rate on a 350k mortgage.  Rates were 4% a year and a half ago.  This is one of the main factors for the increase in prices.  House costs more but the payments remain the same. 

Let me ask you this, if you buy a home for 500k now, do you think it will drop to 400k in 3 years?  Well, rent on a 500k house is conservatively 2500 a month.  In 3 years that's 90k in rent, more if the landlord raises rents each year (which I do).  Yes there is maintenance in owning, but if you buy a relatively  turn key home, maintenance should be minimal over a 3 year span. 

So sitting on the sidelines gets you what? another year of paying off someone else's mortgage.  Don't get me wrong, its tough as heck out there to buy, I'd be discouraged too and definitely more selective on the homes I choose to look at, but I'd still be looking.  Your home could pop up any day. 

In answer to the OP's post.  I'm always looking and at the start of the year, I bought a new primary house; Bidding war, escalation clause, all cash, 30 day close, as-is etc.  It's a fixer and we are getting closer to having it move in ready.  In the meantime, I'm about 30 days away from putting my current primary on the market, and I plan to make a killing when I sell it:)

Well, it gets me another year of paying someone else's mortgage, and probably an additional ~$15,000 invested. 

We just moved.  Rent is about $3600.  Purchase would be about $900,000 (smaller home in the neighborhood sold for just under that) and this is not a super updated house.  It has some of the original appliances (23 years old), for example.  So there's good reason to think maintenance wouldn't be minimal; if it was newer it would cost more to buy.  So by the time we paid all associated expenses, we'd be at least $1000 (veery conservatively) in the red compared to just writing that rent check.

I'm tired of being a renter.  (We do own a place the we rent out, as well.)  I want to paint walls and not go to battle with cheap landlords when the stove breaks and to be able to drill holes in walls with impunity and make changes or upgrades that fit our life.  But we just couldn't justify buying when it was simply so much cheaper to rent.  We got a 3 year lease with no increases, and that's likely how long we will live in this area.

Both of you make good points. I was leaning toward what srad said but then your situation reminded me of my almost the exact situation back 2007 when I too was tired of renting and bought right before the crash. I honestly don't think the housing market is going to crash. It might go down 10-20%  in some areas but interest rates will most likely go up which will then make your payments a wash

[Gondolin]

Moved cities 1/15 and closed 3/5. Overpaid for a fixer-upper (all cosmetic) but got in at a rock bottom interest rate. Would have preferred something more move in ready but rents are stupidly high. Mortgage payment on our 4/2 is the same as rent on a garageless 2/2.

[jeromedawg]

Anyone noticing more inventory popping up in your respective areas? I'm seeing a slight increase... close to 10 properties (ranging from 3/2 to 5/3) from $900k-$1.25mm in my immediate neighborhood of a 3-5mi radius are on the market currently with a few that have been on the market for over 14 days. Most of these properties came on the market just in the past week or so. This doesn't include a couple properties that were on the market as "coming soon" for a long time then had showings for a couple days and accepted offers right after.

[Villanelle]

Anyone noticing more inventory popping up in your respective areas? I'm seeing a slight increase... close to 10 properties (ranging from 3/2 to 5/3) from $900k-$1.25mm in my immediate neighborhood of a 3-5mi radius are on the market currently with a few that have been on the market for over 14 days. Most of these properties came on the market just in the past week or so. This doesn't include a couple properties that were on the market as "coming soon" for a long time then had showings for a couple days and accepted offers right after.

Several Facebook acquaintances finally had offers accepted.  One made 14 offers and the other a similar number, and I wondered if that meant perhaps things are easing a bit.  It may also be that the summer buying season is drawing to a close.  (Offers made and accepted now  with a 30 day close would have someone moving just before school starts, and I'm often hearing about things like 60 days free rent-back required, so that would miss school start.)  So it could be that the mad dash to move and be settled (and have paperwork) in time for school start is ending and things will settle a bit now that those buyers have either bought or may rent or decide to stay put. 

[economista]

Things are easing a bit in the Denver area. I’ve noticed quite a few houses that wend under contract over the last month are coming back on the market with a lower list price as well. Interesting the demand for townhouses seems to be higher than the demand for single family homes, so we think this will help us. We can still sell really fast and then hopefully we will have an accepted offer quickly on a new house.

[FINate]

Got some fresh RE stats for our area yesterday.

TL;DR - Historically low inventory (0.7 months county, 0.4 months Boise proper), inventory down 54% YoY. Slight up-tick in inventory this month, but in line with seasonal patterns and comes after a significant drop end 2020 early 2021.

It's the usual story. Well priced homes in desirable neighborhoods go very quickly. Homes with one or more of the following issues: overpriced, less desirable neighborhood, on busy street, adjacent to industrial, awkward layout or lot... these sit on the market quite a bit longer.

So, no, I don't think I'm seeing any improvement here other than typical seasonality.

[jeromedawg]

Got some fresh RE stats for our area yesterday.

TL;DR - Historically low inventory (0.7 months county, 0.4 months Boise proper), inventory down 54% YoY. Slight up-tick in inventory this month, but in line with seasonal patterns and comes after a significant drop end 2020 early 2021.

It's the usual story. Well priced homes in desirable neighborhoods go very quickly. Homes with one or more of the following issues: overpriced, less desirable neighborhood, on busy street, adjacent to industrial, awkward layout or lot... these sit on the market quite a bit longer.

So, no, I don't think I'm seeing any improvement here other than typical seasonality.

This is almost exactly what I'm observing in my immediate neighborhood - it's the most desirable location in probably most if not all of the immediate and even greater area. Homes under $1mm are off the market in a matter of a few days max. The ones that are over $1mm are on for longer and usually are backing a street (major or not), are in a less desirable neighborhood, or have some other issue (possibly foundation, as that is a common thing around here that it seems a lot of homebuyers don't want to deal with). There are a few overpriced and I've noticed a few homes RAISE their prices and I'm not sure why - maybe they're thinking they can squeeze more out of buyers? Or maybe they're not in a rush to sell and are 'testing' the market? Or maybe they're listing higher with the hope that prices continue to appreciate and where eventually buyers will start the bidding war at that higher price point? Or some combination of all of the above? Either way, we're still highly discouraged and frustrated...hoping that maybe things will "slow down" moving in the fall and winter. If this isn't a case of burnout (offers submitted on multiple homes and getting priced out most of the time, and then going into and subsequently falling out of escrow on one), I don't know what is...

Considering the $1mm+ homes are sitting longer on the market, it's *very* tempting to just say "screw it" and go all in on one of those (of course, hoping that there are few to nil other bidders and that we can try to negotiate the price down) but this all comes at the sacrifice of pulling from my taxable investments to supplement for an even larger down payment (currently, if we find the "right place" we can probably put an offer in where I don't need to touch the taxable investments...something I'd really prefer not to have to do) + more expensive everything else (taxes, insurance, HOAs [especially if we live in this immediate area], etc). There's currently one curious case I've been eyeing but it just looks a bit suspicious - they fell out of contract and subsequently RAISED the price after doing so back in May. It's been sitting stale ever since. It's a 4/3 at just under 2600sq ft but it backs a street that *can* have some road noise/traffic (I don't think it's as bad as some of the other streets though)


If anything, this is what I absolutely do NOT want:
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/highly-competitive-housing-market-drives-real-estate-regrets-116030533597

https://www-dailydot-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.dailydot.com/unclick/home-inspector-flip-house-tiktok/?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16255530795521&csi=0

I think there's too much rhetoric out there driving people to make really stupid decisions. If you think about it, some of the heat could be taken off if home inspections weren't waived and/or if people knew what was wrong with the house - who would willingly buy a lemon if they didn't have to? Or at least, it would force more sellers to stop trying to unload their lemons and or be up-front and honest about what they're selling. Someone else here not too long ago mentioned greed isn't a driving factor because people are willing to pay what the market demands. I would argue that there are a whole lot more dishonest sellers out there who are taking advantage of the situation well-beyond the means of "market demand" - this is driven by nothing else but greed. I can account for dealing with at least one dishonest seller & agent.

[Villanelle]

Got some fresh RE stats for our area yesterday.

TL;DR - Historically low inventory (0.7 months county, 0.4 months Boise proper), inventory down 54% YoY. Slight up-tick in inventory this month, but in line with seasonal patterns and comes after a significant drop end 2020 early 2021.

It's the usual story. Well priced homes in desirable neighborhoods go very quickly. Homes with one or more of the following issues: overpriced, less desirable neighborhood, on busy street, adjacent to industrial, awkward layout or lot... these sit on the market quite a bit longer.

So, no, I don't think I'm seeing any improvement here other than typical seasonality.

This is almost exactly what I'm observing in my immediate neighborhood - it's the most desirable location in probably most if not all of the immediate and even greater area. Homes under $1mm are off the market in a matter of a few days max. The ones that are over $1mm are on for longer and usually are backing a street (major or not), are in a less desirable neighborhood, or have some other issue (possibly foundation, as that is a common thing around here that it seems a lot of homebuyers don't want to deal with). There are a few overpriced and I've noticed a few homes RAISE their prices and I'm not sure why - maybe they're thinking they can squeeze more out of buyers? Or maybe they're not in a rush to sell and are 'testing' the market? Or maybe they're listing higher with the hope that prices continue to appreciate and where eventually buyers will start the bidding war at that higher price point? Or some combination of all of the above? Either way, we're still highly discouraged and frustrated...hoping that maybe things will "slow down" moving in the fall and winter. If this isn't a case of burnout (offers submitted on multiple homes and getting priced out most of the time, and then going into and subsequently falling out of escrow on one), I don't know what is...

Considering the $1mm+ homes are sitting longer on the market, it's *very* tempting to just say "screw it" and go all in on one of those (of course, hoping that there are few to nil other bidders and that we can try to negotiate the price down) but this all comes at the sacrifice of pulling from my taxable investments to supplement for an even larger down payment (currently, if we find the "right place" we can probably put an offer in where I don't need to touch the taxable investments...something I'd really prefer not to have to do) + more expensive everything else (taxes, insurance, HOAs [especially if we live in this immediate area], etc). There's currently one curious case I've been eyeing but it just looks a bit suspicious - they fell out of contract and subsequently RAISED the price after doing so back in May. It's been sitting stale ever since. It's a 4/3 at just under 2600sq ft but it backs a street that *can* have some road noise/traffic (I don't think it's as bad as some of the other streets though)


If anything, this is what I absolutely do NOT want:
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/highly-competitive-housing-market-drives-real-estate-regrets-116030533597

https://www-dailydot-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.dailydot.com/unclick/home-inspector-flip-house-tiktok/?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16255530795521&csi=0

I think there's too much rhetoric out there driving people to make really stupid decisions. If you think about it, some of the heat could be taken off if home inspections weren't waived and/or if people knew what was wrong with the house - who would willingly buy a lemon if they didn't have to? Or at least, it would force more sellers to stop trying to unload their lemons and or be up-front and honest about what they're selling. Someone else here not too long ago mentioned greed isn't a driving factor because people are willing to pay what the market demands. I would argue that there are a whole lot more dishonest sellers out there who are taking advantage of the situation well-beyond the means of "market demand" - this is driven by nothing else but greed. I can account for dealing with at least one dishonest seller & agent.

Unless there's a way to know what the offer was that eventually fell through, I'd guess that perhaps the new asking price is what they ended up accepting on the offer that ultimately didn't make it to closing.  If I had an offer (or multiple offers) for $1.4, if I had to relist, I'd strongly consider doing it at 1.4 instead of the original 1.2.  That said, since it is lingering, clearly the strategy isn't working. 

[jeromedawg]

Got some fresh RE stats for our area yesterday.

TL;DR - Historically low inventory (0.7 months county, 0.4 months Boise proper), inventory down 54% YoY. Slight up-tick in inventory this month, but in line with seasonal patterns and comes after a significant drop end 2020 early 2021.

It's the usual story. Well priced homes in desirable neighborhoods go very quickly. Homes with one or more of the following issues: overpriced, less desirable neighborhood, on busy street, adjacent to industrial, awkward layout or lot... these sit on the market quite a bit longer.

So, no, I don't think I'm seeing any improvement here other than typical seasonality.

This is almost exactly what I'm observing in my immediate neighborhood - it's the most desirable location in probably most if not all of the immediate and even greater area. Homes under $1mm are off the market in a matter of a few days max. The ones that are over $1mm are on for longer and usually are backing a street (major or not), are in a less desirable neighborhood, or have some other issue (possibly foundation, as that is a common thing around here that it seems a lot of homebuyers don't want to deal with). There are a few overpriced and I've noticed a few homes RAISE their prices and I'm not sure why - maybe they're thinking they can squeeze more out of buyers? Or maybe they're not in a rush to sell and are 'testing' the market? Or maybe they're listing higher with the hope that prices continue to appreciate and where eventually buyers will start the bidding war at that higher price point? Or some combination of all of the above? Either way, we're still highly discouraged and frustrated...hoping that maybe things will "slow down" moving in the fall and winter. If this isn't a case of burnout (offers submitted on multiple homes and getting priced out most of the time, and then going into and subsequently falling out of escrow on one), I don't know what is...

Considering the $1mm+ homes are sitting longer on the market, it's *very* tempting to just say "screw it" and go all in on one of those (of course, hoping that there are few to nil other bidders and that we can try to negotiate the price down) but this all comes at the sacrifice of pulling from my taxable investments to supplement for an even larger down payment (currently, if we find the "right place" we can probably put an offer in where I don't need to touch the taxable investments...something I'd really prefer not to have to do) + more expensive everything else (taxes, insurance, HOAs [especially if we live in this immediate area], etc). There's currently one curious case I've been eyeing but it just looks a bit suspicious - they fell out of contract and subsequently RAISED the price after doing so back in May. It's been sitting stale ever since. It's a 4/3 at just under 2600sq ft but it backs a street that *can* have some road noise/traffic (I don't think it's as bad as some of the other streets though)


If anything, this is what I absolutely do NOT want:
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/highly-competitive-housing-market-drives-real-estate-regrets-116030533597

https://www-dailydot-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.dailydot.com/unclick/home-inspector-flip-house-tiktok/?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16255530795521&csi=0

I think there's too much rhetoric out there driving people to make really stupid decisions. If you think about it, some of the heat could be taken off if home inspections weren't waived and/or if people knew what was wrong with the house - who would willingly buy a lemon if they didn't have to? Or at least, it would force more sellers to stop trying to unload their lemons and or be up-front and honest about what they're selling. Someone else here not too long ago mentioned greed isn't a driving factor because people are willing to pay what the market demands. I would argue that there are a whole lot more dishonest sellers out there who are taking advantage of the situation well-beyond the means of "market demand" - this is driven by nothing else but greed. I can account for dealing with at least one dishonest seller & agent.

Unless there's a way to know what the offer was that eventually fell through, I'd guess that perhaps the new asking price is what they ended up accepting on the offer that ultimately didn't make it to closing.  If I had an offer (or multiple offers) for $1.4, if I had to relist, I'd strongly consider doing it at 1.4 instead of the original 1.2.  That said, since it is lingering, clearly the strategy isn't working.

I just think they've overpriced it from the get go. Estimates for comparable houses on that row and even in the neighborhood barely touch a million. Nobody's going to offer more than $100k above that unless there's something really special about it (not to remind that it backs a street that I think there is definite road noise on). The most expensive house in that neighborhood sold for $1.4mm but that's because it's on a very large corner lot and whoever bought it really wanted all that extra space (even though it's also backing a street). The last home that sold in that neighborhood which is right down the row, sold for 1.125mm but the lot size is larger (there's more yard space on the sides of the house) and it's better appointed IMO. So $1.25mm is stubbornly asking for too much for something that isn't that well appointed/updated and is backing a street. Aside from that, if there are potential foundation issues (it's not obvious to me from the pics but you never know), that would be another huge detractor on the pricing.

It's funny but it feels like a majority of the listings I'm looking at are of houses backing major streets hahaha.... I think people may be discovering that they want/need absolute peace and quiet when WFH :)

[jeromedawg]

Just saw some behavior that I'm sort of scratching my head at and I've noticed it happening now more than once - so there's this one home that has been sitting stale on the market since 6/10. It's a 3/2 1360sq ft listed originally for $948k. They just bumped it to $975k a few minutes ago.
The first property I saw this happen with was for a tenant occupied light fixer listed starting at $888k - 3/2 1447 sq ft. Stale since 6/14. They bumped it to $925k on 7/1. I think I've seen this with at least one or two other properties in the area. What gives? Are these people getting desperate thinking they better try to play some sort of FOMO trick on buyers to try to get them to BUY NOW before prices go even higher? Seems quite counterintuitive... maybe none of these sellers are in a rush to sell and are willing to play high stakes poker, bluff, and raise prices more and more?

The above $1mm properties are the ones I'm seeing doing gradual price decreases if anything (these are the ones that are like $1.2mm+ and either have dated/ugly furnishings, still need some kind of improvement besides updating furnishings [flooring or paint], and are backing a street) 

[Mr. Green]

I have started to notice more listings in our area (Wilmington, NC) that are priced too high and they're sitting. People are getting greedy and think they can list at very overpriced numbers (even for the current tight market) and it's backfiring, leading to them having to reduce they're listing price. Basically, if it isn't under contract in 10 days you fucked up. I can't help but wonder if this is the beginning of normalization starting.

[jeromedawg]

Got some fresh RE stats for our area yesterday.

TL;DR - Historically low inventory (0.7 months county, 0.4 months Boise proper), inventory down 54% YoY. Slight up-tick in inventory this month, but in line with seasonal patterns and comes after a significant drop end 2020 early 2021.

It's the usual story. Well priced homes in desirable neighborhoods go very quickly. Homes with one or more of the following issues: overpriced, less desirable neighborhood, on busy street, adjacent to industrial, awkward layout or lot... these sit on the market quite a bit longer.

So, no, I don't think I'm seeing any improvement here other than typical seasonality.

This is almost exactly what I'm observing in my immediate neighborhood - it's the most desirable location in probably most if not all of the immediate and even greater area. Homes under $1mm are off the market in a matter of a few days max. The ones that are over $1mm are on for longer and usually are backing a street (major or not), are in a less desirable neighborhood, or have some other issue (possibly foundation, as that is a common thing around here that it seems a lot of homebuyers don't want to deal with). There are a few overpriced and I've noticed a few homes RAISE their prices and I'm not sure why - maybe they're thinking they can squeeze more out of buyers? Or maybe they're not in a rush to sell and are 'testing' the market? Or maybe they're listing higher with the hope that prices continue to appreciate and where eventually buyers will start the bidding war at that higher price point? Or some combination of all of the above? Either way, we're still highly discouraged and frustrated...hoping that maybe things will "slow down" moving in the fall and winter. If this isn't a case of burnout (offers submitted on multiple homes and getting priced out most of the time, and then going into and subsequently falling out of escrow on one), I don't know what is...

Considering the $1mm+ homes are sitting longer on the market, it's *very* tempting to just say "screw it" and go all in on one of those (of course, hoping that there are few to nil other bidders and that we can try to negotiate the price down) but this all comes at the sacrifice of pulling from my taxable investments to supplement for an even larger down payment (currently, if we find the "right place" we can probably put an offer in where I don't need to touch the taxable investments...something I'd really prefer not to have to do) + more expensive everything else (taxes, insurance, HOAs [especially if we live in this immediate area], etc). There's currently one curious case I've been eyeing but it just looks a bit suspicious - they fell out of contract and subsequently RAISED the price after doing so back in May. It's been sitting stale ever since. It's a 4/3 at just under 2600sq ft but it backs a street that *can* have some road noise/traffic (I don't think it's as bad as some of the other streets though)


If anything, this is what I absolutely do NOT want:
https://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/highly-competitive-housing-market-drives-real-estate-regrets-116030533597

https://www-dailydot-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.dailydot.com/unclick/home-inspector-flip-house-tiktok/?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16255530795521&csi=0

I think there's too much rhetoric out there driving people to make really stupid decisions. If you think about it, some of the heat could be taken off if home inspections weren't waived and/or if people knew what was wrong with the house - who would willingly buy a lemon if they didn't have to? Or at least, it would force more sellers to stop trying to unload their lemons and or be up-front and honest about what they're selling. Someone else here not too long ago mentioned greed isn't a driving factor because people are willing to pay what the market demands. I would argue that there are a whole lot more dishonest sellers out there who are taking advantage of the situation well-beyond the means of "market demand" - this is driven by nothing else but greed. I can account for dealing with at least one dishonest seller & agent.

Unless there's a way to know what the offer was that eventually fell through, I'd guess that perhaps the new asking price is what they ended up accepting on the offer that ultimately didn't make it to closing.  If I had an offer (or multiple offers) for $1.4, if I had to relist, I'd strongly consider doing it at 1.4 instead of the original 1.2.  That said, since it is lingering, clearly the strategy isn't working.

So my realtor found out more on this one - apparently it's probate as the owner died of natural causes in the property. It's going to have to go to probate court now. I did some additional poking around - the widowed husband passed away last year in May. Home was listed Nov, so it corresponds. Apparently his wife passed away in 2009 from a house fire limited to one of the bedrooms. I think it's the same house.

[beekayworld]

Having a death in the house is going to reduce the pool of buyers.
In California a realtor must disclose if a death occurred in the house in the last 3 years.  So the widower's death would have to be disclosed which shakes some people up, even though it was through natural causes.

Add to that a second death more than 3 years ago, which doesn't have to be disclosed unless the realtor i asked directly, and the house acquires a creepy aura many buyers will turn away from.

[beekayworld]

Having a death in the house is going to reduce the pool of buyers.
In California a realtor must disclose if a death occurred in the house in the last 3 years.  So the widower's death would have to be disclosed which shakes some people up, even though it was through natural causes.

Add to that a second death more than 3 years ago, which doesn't have to be disclosed unless the realtor is asked directly, and the house acquires a creepy aura many buyers will turn away from.

[jeromedawg]

Having a death in the house is going to reduce the pool of buyers.
In California a realtor must disclose if a death occurred in the house in the last 3 years.  So the widower's death would have to be disclosed which shakes some people up, even though it was through natural causes.

Add to that a second death more than 3 years ago, which doesn't have to be disclosed unless the realtor i asked directly, and the house acquires a creepy aura many buyers will turn away from.

Makes sense. We viewed it today and it was OK but the price point was the bigger turn-off for sure. A home in the same area (actually a more desirable location/enclave) is selling for $50k more with an extra bonus room that was added. Throw on top the fact that this property is going to the probate court makes it even *less* appealing. It feels like it may need some additional work done inside but not a whole lot - it has been kept in pretty good shape.

[norajean]

Most areas are publishing June real estate stats this week. May was the 2021 high in most areas, June lower and the market cooling the rest of the year.

[affordablehousing]

um, probate is how you get deals. Heirs don't want to deal with stuff, and they get more negotiable on the price. I don't understand why people care if people die in the house. It just makes it more interesting in my mind.

[srad]

um, probate is how you get deals. Heirs don't want to deal with stuff, and they get more negotiable on the price. I don't understand why people care if people die in the house. It just makes it more interesting in my mind.

+1

I love probate homes, you really can get a deal, ask for any concession and if the family knows you are serious, they usually will work with you.

I know for a fact I've lived in 2 homes where a person has died in them.  No casper the ghosts or any mysterious axe murder showed up in the middle of the night.  Seriously, people die in their homes every day.  And I hope to be one of them, one day as well..