So we did the virtual tour today and got a sense from the realtor that it will likely go for closer to 260K, he also estimated the rents much lower than we have projected, but he also admitted that he knows nothing about the rental market, and it has risen steeply in the past two years more rapidly than house prices because of a lack of rental inventory and increasing demand.
So with the new numbers, the property is closer to 1% than 1.3%, but I think our rental estimates are much more realistic than his because literally every listing for the area is in the ballpark we estimated, so the real numbers are still probably nicely above 1%.
The lower unit isn't as nice as it photographed, but all it really needs is kitchen cabinet refacing, and a new washer and dryer.
Even though it's a converted house, each unit has it's own separate driveway, it's own laundry/storage room. Also, rentals in the area are largely heated with oil and don't have AC, and this one is mini-split heat/AC combo, so that's a MASSIVE selling point. With the lack of rental options, a lot of the rentals are in buildings that are over 100 yeas old, so modern features in a rental isn't a given.
The sellers aren't looking at offers until Wednesday, so it all depends if someone pops up with a massive offer, which is always possible. Apparently this is what's driving the market up so rapidly, Toronto buyers are just accustomed to making no condition offers insanely above asking, so you never know when one of these massive competing bids might blow up a perfectly good deal.
Technically, our numbers still work at 300K, but because this isn't a primary home, we're not emotionally attached to this specific place to feel the need to make a massive offer. There will be other units, or there won't be. We won't live or die on this deal no matter what happens.
Apparently cash deals are a HUGE factor because of a combo of out of province buyers over bidding, but not understanding how financing works, or locals being too poor to qualify for full amounts because of the new, much tighter lending rules. So even having an offer that indicates only 50% financing needed would give us a massive advantage.
We've also instructed our RE agent to ask the seller if we can get an inspection done before offers go in on Wednesday. When we sold our place, we had a ton of offers, but we had 3 people who completed inspections *before* making their offers, and even though we had some bids 10K higher, we went with one of the no inspection bids. Just knowing that certain buyers were willing to do that, it really showed that they were no nonsense, and not as likely to try and negotiate an after offer discount. So even if we can't coordinate the inspection, it sends the message to the other side about what kind of buyer we are.
The RE agent won't let us put together an offer until Wednesday though because the region is set for an enormous rain and part of the lower unit is below grade, so he wants us to tour again and see if any water leaks in. The grading looks great, but he wants to be certain. He even lied to the seller to get the second showing because the seller is not allowing repeat showings, lol. As I said, I really like our RE guy, he's in his 50s, was quite successful, but is semi retired and just working with buyers now because he finds it less stressful and more fun. So he's a real pro and no nonsense, but also super mellow, which I'm enjoying, even if he doesn't know shit about the rental market, lol. But he is going to reach out to a trusted property management company and get me better estimates of rental numbers.
All in all, even if it doesn't work out, it's been a fun, non-stressful process. Real estate is fun when none of it really matters, lol.