Author Topic: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices  (Read 44046 times)

halfling

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #150 on: February 15, 2023, 10:58:38 AM »
Home prices are finally leveling off in my city, even falling sharply in some neighborhoods that still have a lot of apparent neglect and/or are cut up by the interstate or busy stroads. The walkable central neighborhoods are probably going to stay out of reach for average buyers.

My first-time homebuyer's outlook for 2023 is pretty pessimistic, because of high rates failing to drive down prices proportionally. The houses in my neighborhood (where we rent) are going for around $450K starting price for a 2br with no central air now. Prices are still up about 7% YoY. A year ago, assume the house would have been $420K, and with an $84K DP and 4.4% interest the monthly mortgage would have been around $2240. I didn't have $84K lying around for a DP back then, but that is when I first started looking.

Now, with a $90K DP which I'm lucky to be able to be putting away, and a 6.4% interest rate with perfect credit, plus the city property tax authority going full-force on using recent comps for assessments, that monthly payment is $2851, up almost 30% from just a year ago.

It is an extremely unattractive offer. Especially with how many of my friends and talented colleagues have been struck with layoffs in the last couple of months. I do want the lifestyle of homeownership one day, but I'll just keep customizing my apartment and growing what I can on our balcony without any direct sunlight lol.

I know there are all these arguments about housing shortages, about millennials and boomers all competing for the same "starter" homes, about construction shortages and how people aren't going to give up their 2% mortgages. I say good for those people who are already locked in with their $1000 housing payments, it's like scoring a rent-controlled apartment. But I can't help but to hope for the proverbial other shoe to drop, even if it's just a couple inches.

ChpBstrd

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #151 on: February 23, 2023, 09:00:30 PM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-values-fall-redfin-report-homeowner/

Quote
Total home values fell to $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, down 4.9% from the same period a year earlier, Redfin found.  By comparison, home values dropped 5.8% from June to December during the 2008 housing market crash...

clarkfan1979

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #152 on: February 24, 2023, 08:15:28 PM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-values-fall-redfin-report-homeowner/

Quote
Total home values fell to $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, down 4.9% from the same period a year earlier, Redfin found.  By comparison, home values dropped 5.8% from June to December during the 2008 housing market crash...

Here is another report from Redfin. Median sales price is up 1.5% nationally (Jan 2022 to Jan 2023).

https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market

Paper Chaser

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #153 on: February 25, 2023, 07:07:26 AM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-values-fall-redfin-report-homeowner/

Quote
Total home values fell to $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, down 4.9% from the same period a year earlier, Redfin found.  By comparison, home values dropped 5.8% from June to December during the 2008 housing market crash...

Here is another report from Redfin. Median sales price is up 1.5% nationally (Jan 2022 to Jan 2023).

https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market

Other interesting data from that Redfin article:
- # of homes currently for sale is up 20% YoY
- # of newly listed homes is down 18% YoY
- Median days on market has nearly doubled YoY increasing 24 days to 51 total
- Months supply is up from 1 to 3 YoY

It seems like there are fewer people listing their homes for sale (thanks to locked in low interest mortgages), and even with that the limited supply is being met with cooler demand thanks to higher interest rates and poor affordability. SO the few homes that are on the market are sitting longer.
Some of the early data that is coming out indicates Newly constructed homes are moving more quickly than existing homes, which makes sense. Builders are buying down rates to aggressively move product without the impact of large price drops. But homeowners are unable to do that and also unwilling to drop prices so that part of the market is more stagnant.

If we zoom out and look at the data on a 5 year timeline, it seems like we're seeing data more comparable to 2018-May 2020 instead of what we've seen since lockdowns and mortgage rates dropping. Number of homes selling over list price, months supply, days on market, etc are all back to levels last seen before pandemic lockdowns.
« Last Edit: February 25, 2023, 07:39:20 AM by Paper Chaser »

Villanelle

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #154 on: February 25, 2023, 10:49:27 AM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-values-fall-redfin-report-homeowner/

Quote
Total home values fell to $45.3 trillion at the end of 2022, down 4.9% from the same period a year earlier, Redfin found.  By comparison, home values dropped 5.8% from June to December during the 2008 housing market crash...

Here is another report from Redfin. Median sales price is up 1.5% nationally (Jan 2022 to Jan 2023).

https://www.redfin.com/us-housing-market

Other interesting data from that Redfin article:
- # of homes currently for sale is up 20% YoY
- # of newly listed homes is down 18% YoY
- Median days on market has nearly doubled YoY increasing 24 days to 51 total
- Months supply is up from 1 to 3 YoY

It seems like there are fewer people listing their homes for sale (thanks to locked in low interest mortgages), and even with that the limited supply is being met with cooler demand thanks to higher interest rates and poor affordability. SO the few homes that are on the market are sitting longer.
Some of the early data that is coming out indicates Newly constructed homes are moving more quickly than existing homes, which makes sense. Builders are buying down rates to aggressively move product without the impact of large price drops. But homeowners are unable to do that and also unwilling to drop prices so that part of the market is more stagnant.

If we zoom out and look at the data on a 5 year timeline, it seems like we're seeing data more comparable to 2018-May 2020 instead of what we've seen since lockdowns and mortgage rates dropping. Number of homes selling over list price, months supply, days on market, etc are all back to levels last seen before pandemic lockdowns.

I'm seeing more and more listings in my area that offer "up to $xx,xxx to buy down your mortgage rate".  These are private sales. 

Dicey

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #155 on: February 26, 2023, 10:15:24 AM »
We are still seeing huge traffic at open houses and fast sales...on well priced houses. Overpriced stuff is sitting a little longer before it sells, typically after a few price drops. Who knows what will happen next?

ChpBstrd

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #156 on: March 01, 2023, 09:11:19 AM »
Latest headline:
"Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low"
Quote
Volume was 44% lower than the same week one year ago...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/mortgage-demand-falls-interest-rates-rise.html

Interpretation:
Today's home prices (even after falling slightly) don't make sense in the context of 6.7% mortgages.

Paper Chaser

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #157 on: March 01, 2023, 09:42:26 AM »
Mortgage applications:


Supply also trending down:


Goldman Sachs says housing affordability is the lowest it's ever been:


Nobody with a low rate mortgage wants to sell. Especially at depressed prices, so supply is limited.
Nobody wants to buy at current prices/rates, so demand is limited.

Supply will likely increase gradually as new homes and forced sellers hit the market, but without a major change I think it's going to be weird for awhile.

Villanelle

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #158 on: March 01, 2023, 11:43:30 AM »
I saw a housing listing today with seller financing at 5.5%.  I wonder if that will become a more common thing.  For sellers who don't need all of the equity out immediately, this could be a great way to sell quickly and for a higher price, and get a near-guaranteed 5.5% return.  And if the buy defaults, I guess they just repossess the home and sell it again, which actually kind of works out for them most likely.  They'd keep all the payments up to that point (P+I) and then get to sell it all over again.  Or is that not how that works?

Anyway, I thought that was an interesting note in the listing and wonder if it will become more common.  When my parents sold my grandfather's home after he passed away (to the neighbor), I know they held the mortgage and financed the loan.   

ChpBstrd

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #159 on: March 01, 2023, 01:06:58 PM »
Supply also trending down:


Goldman Sachs says housing affordability is the lowest it's ever been:


Note how housing supply tends to peak during recessions. Rising mortgage rates eventually hit a wall of rising unemployment, and then you can't sell your house! Guess what stage we're in!

That 2nd chart on housing affordability tells me the time is right for another 2007-2008 scale housing correction. It's weird how nobody can believe that could happen again even when anyone in their 30's or older lived through it. This time the correction might be nationwide, as prices have run up even in LCOL areas.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #160 on: March 01, 2023, 03:30:05 PM »
I saw a housing listing today with seller financing at 5.5%.  I wonder if that will become a more common thing.  For sellers who don't need all of the equity out immediately, this could be a great way to sell quickly and for a higher price, and get a near-guaranteed 5.5% return.  And if the buy defaults, I guess they just repossess the home and sell it again, which actually kind of works out for them most likely.  They'd keep all the payments up to that point (P+I) and then get to sell it all over again.  Or is that not how that works?

Anyway, I thought that was an interesting note in the listing and wonder if it will become more common.  When my parents sold my grandfather's home after he passed away (to the neighbor), I know they held the mortgage and financed the loan.
Does owner financing work different than a traditional mortgage in the case of default?  With a traditional mortgage, the bank repossesses the house, sells it, uses the proceeds to pay off the debt, and then gives the 'owner' whatever's left, right?

Paper Chaser

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #161 on: March 02, 2023, 04:39:34 AM »
That 2nd chart on housing affordability tells me the time is right for another 2007-2008 scale housing correction. It's weird how nobody can believe that could happen again even when anyone in their 30's or older lived through it. This time the correction might be nationwide, as prices have run up even in LCOL areas.

The Dallas Fed just released some relevant research on US and global housing affordability:

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0228

Highlights for me:
"The comparative gap between the U.S. price-to-rent ratio and its estimated fundamental ratio signals exuberance in the early 2000s as well as during the pandemic. The correction needed to bring the U.S. in line with its fundamentals—a 19.5 percent decline—is less sizeable than at the peak of the previous boom but larger than that for Germany."

"However, while a modest housing correction remains the baseline scenario, the risk that a tighter-than-expected monetary policy may trigger a more-severe price correction in Germany (and the U.S.) cannot be ignored."

Thus far, markets west of the Mississippi have been most impacted by drops, while markets in the eastern half of the US have been much more stable in general.


"Among the nation's 400 largest housing markets tracked by Zillow, 276 markets have seen local home prices fall from their respective 2022 peak. That includes 32 markets, like Boise and Reno, where home prices are down over 5% from their 2022 peak.

Meanwhile, 124 major housing markets still remain at their peak. While the spike in mortgage rates did see housing transaction volumes crash in those 124 markets, home prices in those places have remained stable. Simply put: Those 124 housing markets are weathering the home downturn (so far) similar to how markets weathered the 1981 housing slump."


This article is from the Volcker days, but if you increased some of the numbers it could've been written today:

https://www.nytimes.com/1981/08/09/business/the-coming-collapse-is-already-here.html



LaineyAZ

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #162 on: March 02, 2023, 06:30:08 AM »
Here in Phoenix we just received notices of property valuation from the Tax Assessor's office.  Everyone is fuming because the assessments jumped substantially.

The assessment ratio for assessed value is 10%, and for my own modest house the Full Cash Value increased from 320,800 to 381,600.  I know that annual assessments lag behind current valuations and that timing can work for or against homeowners.   
I don't think the cash dollar amount of my property taxes will increase that much but I'm not surprised that the neighbors who enjoyed watching their home value jump are now incensed that their property taxes are higher now too. 

FIPurpose

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #163 on: March 02, 2023, 07:04:46 AM »
Property taxes go up almost every year. But just because home values go up, doesn't mean your taxes go up. It only matters how much your home value goes up relative to other properties in your area.

If everyone's homes went up in value 20%, then effectively everyone's tax bill stays the same. The government doesn't take in 20% more property tax just because.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #164 on: March 02, 2023, 09:50:34 AM »
Property taxes go up almost every year. But just because home values go up, doesn't mean your taxes go up. It only matters how much your home value goes up relative to other properties in your area.

If everyone's homes went up in value 20%, then effectively everyone's tax bill stays the same. The government doesn't take in 20% more property tax just because.
That depends on how property taxes are structured in your area.  In some areas, it's a straight percentage, and so tax revenues will fluctuate with property values.

In my area, you're right--the local taxing bodies' budgets are set via some other math, and the property taxes required to generate those revenues are distributed across the market according to relative home value.

FINate

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #165 on: March 02, 2023, 11:08:35 AM »
The discussion is often about housing values either crashing or increasing in value. Yet it seems like we could also be looking at an extended period of stagnation, with prices bouncing around a bit but mostly tracking (or even below) inflation. If this happened for a few of years it could be a good thing by making real estate boring and no longer a sure thing. In other words, people would buy houses to live rather than viewing them as investments. One can hope...

zolotiyeruki

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #166 on: March 02, 2023, 11:59:42 AM »
The discussion is often about housing values either crashing or increasing in value. Yet it seems like we could also be looking at an extended period of stagnation, with prices bouncing around a bit but mostly tracking (or even below) inflation. If this happened for a few of years it could be a good thing by making real estate boring and no longer a sure thing. In other words, people would buy houses to live rather than viewing them as investments. One can hope...
Me too.  I *have* heard a lot of rumblings about big investors exiting the RE market.  Someday, I'm hoping to buy some land in a certain area.  Five years ago, undeveloped farmland could be had for under $10k/acre, easily.  Now, you're lucky if you can find $30k/acre.  If the big investors leave, and the market stagnates, and people realize their second home is costing them more than it's worth, and developers and builders slow down, that'll bring land prices down a whole bunch.

eddy20

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #167 on: March 03, 2023, 12:17:01 PM »
I fully agree that the housing market will slow as lots of buyers can not afford higher payments due to higher interest rates. But, I do not agree with a housing crash. You have to look at the prices of other items, do you think food prices will be going down, do you believe that car prices will be going down or do you believe energy, clothing or other items will be going down in price? I don't believe so; people that can not afford to buy will have to find rental housing and that will push rents higher and cause investors to purchase more housing. Over the last 5 decades I have seen the cycle of RE go up and down and it always go higher and higher, the last market height is always exceeded on the next cycle of a housing increase. I think the right time to buy RE is NOW or when you can afford it; as the saying is "marry your house and date your mortgage interest rate". In other words buy your house NOW and re-fi when rates go back down. The other cycle I have seen is when rates are high prices are softer and rates are low prices are firm and higher.

SilentC

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #168 on: March 05, 2023, 01:56:30 PM »
I fully agree that the housing market will slow as lots of buyers can not afford higher payments due to higher interest rates. But, I do not agree with a housing crash. You have to look at the prices of other items, do you think food prices will be going down, do you believe that car prices will be going down or do you believe energy, clothing or other items will be going down in price? I don't believe so; people that can not afford to buy will have to find rental housing and that will push rents higher and cause investors to purchase more housing. Over the last 5 decades I have seen the cycle of RE go up and down and it always go higher and higher, the last market height is always exceeded on the next cycle of a housing increase. I think the right time to buy RE is NOW or when you can afford it; as the saying is "marry your house and date your mortgage interest rate". In other words buy your house NOW and re-fi when rates go back down. The other cycle I have seen is when rates are high prices are softer and rates are low prices are firm and higher.

I don’t mean to nit-pick but the prices of all of those have been falling for months (used cars, some EVs, energy, world food prices) and anecdotally I’ve read the earnings calls for several retailers that are overstocked on apparel and cutting prices the last few quarters.  Are you saying from here you don’t expect them to fall? (Edited to say used cars)
« Last Edit: March 05, 2023, 02:11:39 PM by SilentC »

Dicey

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #169 on: March 06, 2023, 08:45:36 AM »
In related and completely anecdotal news: properties in our area are being snapped up quickly, with multiple offers. Maybe that "Marry the house, date the mortgage" has really become a mantra among first time home buyers.

FIPurpose

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #170 on: March 06, 2023, 09:13:31 AM »
In related and completely anecdotal news: properties in our area are being snapped up quickly, with multiple offers. Maybe that "Marry the house, date the mortgage" has really become a mantra among first time home buyers.

My house in NE continues to go up in price since we bought it at "peak" market last year according to zillow. Average price has gone up about another 7-8% over the last 10 months. And we're about to head into house season here. So we'll see if that holds.

MrGreen

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #171 on: March 06, 2023, 10:24:20 AM »
A house in the neighborhood we just moved out of just went on the market. One of the owners is a real estate agent so they spent maybe 10-15k on upgrades in the common area spaces to really make the house stand out and it went under contract in 24 hours for 25% more than they paid for it just 15 months ago. Pretty amazing and just shows that the right houses are still soliciting strong demand. I'm definitely glad we hung on to our house in that neighborhood. I have a feeling that will have been a very wise decision a few years from now.

chemistk

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #172 on: March 06, 2023, 11:03:27 AM »
Where I live, we're starting to enter the hot time in market. As of just now, there are zero homes listed for sale in my municipality for under $350k. Very interesting, these times.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2023, 12:41:25 PM by chemistk »

zolotiyeruki

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #173 on: March 06, 2023, 11:43:11 AM »
Our development has seen basically zero homes listed since one sold last October.  A pretty new house was listed last weekend for 30% higher than it would have three and a half years ago.  Three days days, 11 showings, and 4 offers later, it's under contract.  This is an area that saw basically zero housing price growth from 2011 - 2019.

ChpBstrd

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #174 on: March 06, 2023, 02:21:37 PM »
I think the right time to buy RE is NOW or when you can afford it; as the saying is "marry your house and date your mortgage interest rate". In other words buy your house NOW and re-fi when rates go back down.

I think falling rates is the assumption of anybody buying now. What happens if those assumptions prove false? I've lost count of the number of Fed officials who have reiterated that rates will have to stay higher for longer to ensure inflation is really dead.

The use of adjustable rate mortgages has tripled since early 2022, so people are making a bet that their rates will reset to something lower this year or next. Can they afford their current payments? Can they afford 7% or 8%?

Dicey

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #175 on: March 06, 2023, 10:05:04 PM »
I think the right time to buy RE is NOW or when you can afford it; as the saying is "marry your house and date your mortgage interest rate". In other words buy your house NOW and re-fi when rates go back down.

I think falling rates is the assumption of anybody buying now. What happens if those assumptions prove false? I've lost count of the number of Fed officials who have reiterated that rates will have to stay higher for longer to ensure inflation is really dead.

The use of adjustable rate mortgages has tripled since early 2022, so people are making a bet that their rates will reset to something lower this year or next. Can they afford their current payments? Can they afford 7% or 8%?
Lenders are pretty damn strict these days, unlike in the early 2000's.

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #176 on: March 07, 2023, 06:26:27 AM »
ETA: I just heard Japan instituted a 100 year (yes one hundred year) mortgage loan to make housing more affordable there. Gulp!
The higher the interest rate the less going longer helps. At 7% rates going to a 100 year term from 30 only gets you a 12% discount on your monthly payment...

ChpBstrd

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #177 on: March 07, 2023, 08:31:31 AM »
ETA: I just heard Japan instituted a 100 year (yes one hundred year) mortgage loan to make housing more affordable there. Gulp!
The higher the interest rate the less going longer helps. At 7% rates going to a 100 year term from 30 only gets you a 12% discount on your monthly payment...
Sounds like a last-ditch effort to prop up housing prices.

dandarc

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #178 on: March 07, 2023, 10:01:15 AM »
ETA: I just heard Japan instituted a 100 year (yes one hundred year) mortgage loan to make housing more affordable there. Gulp!
The higher the interest rate the less going longer helps. At 7% rates going to a 100 year term from 30 only gets you a 12% discount on your monthly payment...
I thought the same thing as the monthly mortgage payment won't be that much lower. It's apparently an ancestral loan in that it will pass to your heirs.

"A recent innovation in the Japanese real estate industry to promote home ownership is the creation of a 100-year mortgage term. The home, encumbered by the mortgage, becomes an ancestral property and is passed on from grandparent to grandchild in a multigenerational fashion."
Also not that recent of a development - I see articles referring to this from 1995.

clarkfan1979

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #179 on: March 07, 2023, 12:10:06 PM »
I think the right time to buy RE is NOW or when you can afford it; as the saying is "marry your house and date your mortgage interest rate". In other words buy your house NOW and re-fi when rates go back down.

I think falling rates is the assumption of anybody buying now. What happens if those assumptions prove false? I've lost count of the number of Fed officials who have reiterated that rates will have to stay higher for longer to ensure inflation is really dead.

The use of adjustable rate mortgages has tripled since early 2022, so people are making a bet that their rates will reset to something lower this year or next. Can they afford their current payments? Can they afford 7% or 8%?

The criteria to qualify for an adjustable rate mortgage today is different than it was back in 2006. Today the buyers need to qualify (debt to income under 45%) based on the highest adjusted rate, not just the teaser rate.   

ChpBstrd

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #180 on: March 07, 2023, 02:18:00 PM »


I'm trying to figure out why the payment/income percentage disengaged from mortgage rates after decades of being in lockstep.

zolotiyeruki

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #181 on: March 07, 2023, 03:24:50 PM »


I'm trying to figure out why the payment/income percentage disengaged from mortgage rates after decades of being in lockstep.
It seems like a couple of periods introduced offsets--1999-2003 and 2019-2021.  Between those two periods, they were once again in lockstep (but now with an offset).

Finances_With_Purpose

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #182 on: March 07, 2023, 07:00:39 PM »
Curious.  Maybe a spate of buying when rates weren't great and then NOT refinancing?  Makes one wonder...

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #183 on: March 08, 2023, 08:44:56 AM »
ETA: I just heard Japan instituted a 100 year (yes one hundred year) mortgage loan to make housing more affordable there. Gulp!
The higher the interest rate the less going longer helps. At 7% rates going to a 100 year term from 30 only gets you a 12% discount on your monthly payment...
I thought the same thing as the monthly mortgage payment won't be that much lower. It's apparently an ancestral loan in that it will pass to your heirs.

"A recent innovation in the Japanese real estate industry to promote home ownership is the creation of a 100-year mortgage term. The home, encumbered by the mortgage, becomes an ancestral property and is passed on from grandparent to grandchild in a multigenerational fashion."
Also not that recent of a development - I see articles referring to this from 1995.
I didn't know that as first I heard about it was on the local TV news yesterday and they made it sound like a new thing.
I was trying to find the interest rate on a 100 year mortgage and failed . . .

clarkfan1979

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #184 on: March 22, 2023, 07:40:20 AM »
So it looks like the latest reports for median sales price in Denver for February 2022 to February 2023 is -5%. As others have suggested, if we were going to see a decline, this would be the best month to see it. My personal prediction was that Denver was never going to go negative (YOY), so I guess I was wrong. The market is still very strong here, so I don't anticipate seeing negative (YOY) for long, but anything is possible.

I'm seeing a housing shortage with big increases in rents and people actually leaving Denver because it's too expensive. I remember when people moved to Denver for the affordability. Someone referenced Denver as the most expensive housing market of a large city in the United States that is not coastal. 

waltworks

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #185 on: March 22, 2023, 12:58:49 PM »
It's more likely to be a long slow grind than a "crash", IMO. I'd bet on many years of slightly negative/zero appreciation for Denver, especially if we see sustained 6+% mortgage rates. People just don't have the money to enter the market mostly.

-W

SilentC

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #186 on: March 22, 2023, 09:33:52 PM »
It's more likely to be a long slow grind than a "crash", IMO. I'd bet on many years of slightly negative/zero appreciation for Denver, especially if we see sustained 6+% mortgage rates. People just don't have the money to enter the market mostly.

-W

On Odd Lots a commercial real estate expert was saying sellers need to “grieve” and then come to terms with the fact that they need to lower their asks.  It’s a slow process though the reversal of WFH by some major high paying tech firms, mass extinction of startups and banks tightening lending more to preserve liquidity all may help speed up the process.

Zamboni

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #187 on: March 22, 2023, 10:47:17 PM »
Got this in my feed today and I was glad I wasn't drinking hot coffee.

"Price Improvement" - OMG ROFLMAO!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Desert/78217-Willowrich-Dr-92211/home/5815022

Truth is, it's a very unpopular floor plan, so the price is going to have to "improve" some more.

This one is still on the market. I think it looks quite nice, but they don't have the floorplan map . . . maybe I would hate that?

halfling

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #188 on: March 23, 2023, 11:40:33 AM »
Only one listing in my neighborhood for the past month and it's for an out-of-place $2M mansionette. Last month two renovated houses listed at a little over $600K, I had my fingers crossed they'd sit a while since they were both last sold for ~$300K a couple of years ago and the tax assessments were only around $450K, but it was wishful thinking. They both got snapped up within a couple of weeks at list price. I wonder who bought them!

therethere

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #189 on: March 23, 2023, 11:45:53 AM »
So it looks like the latest reports for median sales price in Denver for February 2022 to February 2023 is -5%. As others have suggested, if we were going to see a decline, this would be the best month to see it. My personal prediction was that Denver was never going to go negative (YOY), so I guess I was wrong. The market is still very strong here, so I don't anticipate seeing negative (YOY) for long, but anything is possible.

I'm seeing a housing shortage with big increases in rents and people actually leaving Denver because it's too expensive. I remember when people moved to Denver for the affordability. Someone referenced Denver as the most expensive housing market of a large city in the United States that is not coastal.

The rents in Denver are actually a great "deal" compared to buying right now. Sure they went up significantly in the past 2 years (ours is up 20% since 2020). But compared to home prices and interest rates they're low. You can rent a 550-650k house for like 2650-3000/month. To buy you're looking at nearly 4000/month + upgrades and the suburbs. Who can afford that? I am really considering leaving Denver after 10 years since I really want to buy but can't justify increasing my housing payment 50%+. We may stick around another year or two and rent, no matter how much it pains me. At the same time I'm considering biting the bullet and buying just to lock in a place anywhere in Denver. If we don't I'm afraid we will be pushed out forever. Tough choices around here.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2023, 11:48:20 AM by therethere »

Villanelle

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #190 on: March 23, 2023, 12:28:51 PM »
So it looks like the latest reports for median sales price in Denver for February 2022 to February 2023 is -5%. As others have suggested, if we were going to see a decline, this would be the best month to see it. My personal prediction was that Denver was never going to go negative (YOY), so I guess I was wrong. The market is still very strong here, so I don't anticipate seeing negative (YOY) for long, but anything is possible.

I'm seeing a housing shortage with big increases in rents and people actually leaving Denver because it's too expensive. I remember when people moved to Denver for the affordability. Someone referenced Denver as the most expensive housing market of a large city in the United States that is not coastal.


The rents in Denver are actually a great "deal" compared to buying right now. Sure they went up significantly in the past 2 years (ours is up 20% since 2020). But compared to home prices and interest rates they're low. You can rent a 550-650k house for like 2650-3000/month. To buy you're looking at nearly 4000/month + upgrades and the suburbs. Who can afford that? I am really considering leaving Denver after 10 years since I really want to buy but can't justify increasing my housing payment 50%+. We may stick around another year or two and rent, no matter how much it pains me. At the same time I'm considering biting the bullet and buying just to lock in a place anywhere in Denver. If we don't I'm afraid we will be pushed out forever. Tough choices around here.


I estimate the place we currently rent (in the burbs of DC) would rent for about $3800, conservatively, if it was on the market today. It would probably sell for just under a million.  (That's supported by a comp in the neigbhorhood that I'd characterize as slightly nicer, and slightly larger, and went for a bit over a million. )  It's crazy how much cheaper it is to rent than own here. 

ChpBstrd

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #191 on: March 23, 2023, 01:00:00 PM »
At the same time I'm considering biting the bullet and buying just to lock in a place anywhere in Denver. If we don't I'm afraid we will be pushed out forever. Tough choices around here.

Buried in this statement are 3 things we should bring to the surface:

1) The assumption that housing costs can go up "forever" without being tied to wage increases.
2) The assumption you'd want to live anywhere where the cost of living is skyrocketing, instead of, say, retiring early.
3) A sense of FOMO because YOU MUST ACT NOW to buy an unaffordable house or else today's good deals on unaffordable houses with 6.5% mortgages might pass you by and then you'll regret it.

Zamboni

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #192 on: March 23, 2023, 04:39:14 PM »
^Yeah, I'm not buying the "it will only go up" argument either. Denver has gotten completely ridiculous.

As this thread shows, some of the most inflated markets have already fallen substantially and it is only just getting started. Remember, real estate crashes happen in ultra slow motion . . . the last one had home prices that continued downward for 5-6 years before trending back up, and that was during extremely low interest rates.

A dozen years ago you could buy any one of a large number of foreclosed homes around me for $30K, and some of these were pretty nice. One right next to me got foreclosed on by the city for not paying taxes (it was fully paid off otherwise!) It was snapped up for $30K and the flipper sold it for $300K 90 days later. I bought a house in 2011 for $184K that was initially listed at $270K and is currently "valued" near $500K. Newsflash: not very many people around here can actually afford that mortgage, and the house is nice but it just isn't that nice. It is unsustainable. There is no doubt at all that my local market is rapidly cooling. I just sold but not planning to even look to buy for at least 18 months.

Dicey

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #193 on: March 24, 2023, 06:06:58 AM »
Got this in my feed today and I was glad I wasn't drinking hot coffee.

"Price Improvement" - OMG ROFLMAO!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Desert/78217-Willowrich-Dr-92211/home/5815022

Truth is, it's a very unpopular floor plan, so the price is going to have to "improve" some more.

This one is still on the market. I think it looks quite nice, but they don't have the floorplan map . . . maybe I would hate that?
And the asking price has "improved" again. Here's the floor plan:

https://www.jelmbergteam.com/resources/solitaire-floor-plan/

It's unpopular because the kitchen is too small and closed off and there's no cost effective way to improve it.

swashbucklinstache

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #194 on: March 24, 2023, 03:18:47 PM »
Got this in my feed today and I was glad I wasn't drinking hot coffee.

"Price Improvement" - OMG ROFLMAO!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Desert/78217-Willowrich-Dr-92211/home/5815022

Truth is, it's a very unpopular floor plan, so the price is going to have to "improve" some more.

This one is still on the market. I think it looks quite nice, but they don't have the floorplan map . . . maybe I would hate that?
And the asking price has "improved" again. Here's the floor plan:

https://www.jelmbergteam.com/resources/solitaire-floor-plan/

It's unpopular because the kitchen is too small and closed off and there's no cost effective way to improve it.
It's also in a 55+ community and a bit away from the action in town, so limited rent-out options. That giant brown spot on the map next to it is pure, real desert, in a high wind area, meaning patio spaces need to be cleaned every few days minimum. Not by the golf course or a convenient golf cart ride to shopping next door to the community. Non-negligible HOA cost and rules.

PD is also incredibly hot in the summer and the city is mostly retired people. Not surprised to see prices drop given the limited buyer market.

Dicey

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #195 on: March 24, 2023, 07:37:44 PM »
Got this in my feed today and I was glad I wasn't drinking hot coffee.

"Price Improvement" - OMG ROFLMAO!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Desert/78217-Willowrich-Dr-92211/home/5815022

Truth is, it's a very unpopular floor plan, so the price is going to have to "improve" some more.

This one is still on the market. I think it looks quite nice, but they don't have the floorplan map . . . maybe I would hate that?
And the asking price has "improved" again. Here's the floor plan:

https://www.jelmbergteam.com/resources/solitaire-floor-plan/

It's unpopular because the kitchen is too small and closed off and there's no cost effective way to improve it.
It's also in a 55+ community and a bit away from the action in town, so limited rent-out options. That giant brown spot on the map next to it is pure, real desert, in a high wind area, meaning patio spaces need to be cleaned every few days minimum. Not by the golf course or a convenient golf cart ride to shopping next door to the community. Non-negligible HOA cost and rules.

PD is also incredibly hot in the summer and the city is mostly retired people. Not surprised to see prices drop given the limited buyer market.

The point of my post was to poke fun at the phrase "price improvement".


Thanks for the "facts". I hope you don't mind if I add a few of my own. You see, we have owned rentals there since 2003. They get snapped up immediately. We've never had one go more than 30 days between tenants.  The "brown spot" is the Coachella Valley National Wildlife Refuge and can never be developed. What's hard to see from such a great distance is that this area is relatively inexpensive compared to most of the rest of SoCal, and a lot of other places. Many people sell their houses in LA and Orange County for an insane amount of money, buy something for a fraction of the cost in the Desert and travel to cooler climes during the summer. Or they just adapt to the heat. The number of full timers is about 50-60% and has steadily inched upward over the years. There are tons of Canadians and people from cold, snowy states that begin with the letter "M". Prices for furnished seasonal rentals are crazy high, with many snowbirds returning to the same property year after year.

I've posted elsewhere about what a PITA the HOA is, but the fee itself is pretty reasonable, as it includes premium cable, internet, and telephone (for those who want it). There are three large, lovely well-equipped clubhouses, softball center, tennis, pickleball, bocce, restaurants, and more withing walking distance. There's a "secret golf cart gate" that gets you into a nice shopping center without using the public roadway. There are two golf courses, a driving range, a pitch & putt course, and a Pro Shop, which are supported primarily by greens fees, not HOA fees. The greens fees are reasonable for the area, according to our golfing tenants. There are three huge pools outdoors and a large indoor pool. Multiple gyms, assembly rooms and spaces for over 80 clubs. Oh, and two dog parks. Everything is meticulously maintained. Try viewing the map in satellite view, just for fun.

The HOA fee is far less than virtually anywhere else in the Valley. Also, it's not SoCal Edison, so the electricity rates are insanely cheap, as is the water.

Here is a key point that you won't discover from looking at RE Listings: many Seniors get to the point where they just don't want to have to fix anything. They sell their house and rent for the peace of mind. They're our best tenants. All of them can afford to travel, but they like it there and tend not to, especially during the pandemic. The house we own that abuts the Nature Preserve does get blowing sand, but it also gets spectacular sunsets. The tenants love it.

It's not selling because it's an unpopular plan and wasn't priced accordingly.




swashbucklinstache

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #196 on: March 24, 2023, 08:52:38 PM »
Got this in my feed today and I was glad I wasn't drinking hot coffee.

"Price Improvement" - OMG ROFLMAO!

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Palm-Desert/78217-Willowrich-Dr-92211/home/5815022

Truth is, it's a very unpopular floor plan, so the price is going to have to "improve" some more.

This one is still on the market. I think it looks quite nice, but they don't have the floorplan map . . . maybe I would hate that?
And the asking price has "improved" again. Here's the floor plan:

https://www.jelmbergteam.com/resources/solitaire-floor-plan/

It's unpopular because the kitchen is too small and closed off and there's no cost effective way to improve it.
It's also in a 55+ community and a bit away from the action in town, so limited rent-out options. That giant brown spot on the map next to it is pure, real desert, in a high wind area, meaning patio spaces need to be cleaned every few days minimum. Not by the golf course or a convenient golf cart ride to shopping next door to the community. Non-negligible HOA cost and rules.

PD is also incredibly hot in the summer and the city is mostly retired people. Not surprised to see prices drop given the limited buyer market.

The point of my post was to poke fun at the phrase "price improvement".


Thanks for the "facts". I hope you don't mind if I add a few of my own. You see, we have owned rentals there since 2003. They get snapped up immediately. We've never had one go more than 30 days between tenants.  The "brown spot" is the Coachella Valley National Wildlife Refuge and can never be developed. What's hard to see from such a great distance is that this area is relatively inexpensive compared to most of the rest of SoCal, and a lot of other places. Many people sell their houses in LA and Orange County for an insane amount of money, buy something for a fraction of the cost in the Desert and travel to cooler climes during the summer. Or they just adapt to the heat. The number of full timers is about 50-60% and has steadily inched upward over the years. There are tons of Canadians and people from cold, snowy states that begin with the letter "M". Prices for furnished seasonal rentals are crazy high, with many snowbirds returning to the same property year after year.

I've posted elsewhere about what a PITA the HOA is, but the fee itself is pretty reasonable, as it includes premium cable, internet, and telephone (for those who want it). There are three large, lovely well-equipped clubhouses, softball center, tennis, pickleball, bocce, restaurants, and more withing walking distance. There's a "secret golf cart gate" that gets you into a nice shopping center without using the public roadway. There are two golf courses, a driving range, a pitch & putt course, and a Pro Shop, which are supported primarily by greens fees, not HOA fees. The greens fees are reasonable for the area, according to our golfing tenants. There are three huge pools outdoors and a large indoor pool. Multiple gyms, assembly rooms and spaces for over 80 clubs. Oh, and two dog parks. Everything is meticulously maintained. Try viewing the map in satellite view, just for fun.

The HOA fee is far less than virtually anywhere else in the Valley. Also, it's not SoCal Edison, so the electricity rates are insanely cheap, as is the water.

Here is a key point that you won't discover from looking at RE Listings: many Seniors get to the point where they just don't want to have to fix anything. They sell their house and rent for the peace of mind. They're our best tenants. All of them can afford to travel, but they like it there and tend not to, especially during the pandemic. The house we own that abuts the Nature Preserve does get blowing sand, but it also gets spectacular sunsets. The tenants love it.

It's not selling because it's an unpopular plan and wasn't priced accordingly.
Sorry if that felt attacking, though I'd add your response here sounds very much that way to me. I was looking to add context for others as I'm intimately familiar with this community. Enough to know better than to wear white-bottomed tennis shoes to pickleball, roll through stop signs in the golf cart, or try to walk a dog on the road =).

Also I think there might be three dog parks now!

Having read that, wouldn't you agree that it's not a great location within the community? You'd know better about the rental aspect of the community itself. I'd just nervous about it for being 55+ and not in the springs, and that budget-minded retired renters might skip escaping to the sun part-time in a down market. And those LA homes have dropped almost more than anywhere in the country, which might slow migration? But then again it's not like social security went down haha so maybe not at all.

The phrasing of "improvement" is very much hilarious. I also get a kick out of postings that read like the start of a fairy tale and inevitably leave out key information =).

Paper Chaser

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #197 on: March 27, 2023, 06:11:41 PM »
Thought this was a cool and relevant chart, even though the data set only goes through Q4 2022:

Paper Chaser

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #198 on: March 27, 2023, 06:25:41 PM »
Also, stark divide between markets losing value (West of Mississippi river) and markets flat or seeing increases (East of Mississippi).

MrGreen

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Re: McBride is now predicting a 10% nominal decline in home prices
« Reply #199 on: March 27, 2023, 08:05:02 PM »
I was shocked to hear from our builder that he just raised his price by 5k for the next 4 houses. He just closed two at 339k this past Friday. We bought our house from him and had agreed on 346k back in August 2022 when the spring run up was still fresh in memory and rates had just risen to 5%. I thought for sure we'd see closing prices under what he was asking but I'll be damned. The market here is clearly stronger than I thought. It has to be the limited supply with rates being as high as they are