Author Topic: Market Timing: property  (Read 2256 times)

Workinghard

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Market Timing: property
« on: June 20, 2014, 03:40:32 AM »
My dh and I are planning on selling our home and going to a rental. The house was great when our son was at home and when we had foster children. We no longer need four bedrooms, three baths, two car garage, pool, or 3/4 of an acre. It's time to downsize and move on.

We are currently going through everything, cleaning out closets, etc and figuring out what we would take to an apartment.

Based on Zillow, which I know is not completely accurate, our home value has gone up 20K this year. We were never under water because we bought it at a low point and we never had a mortgage. We are not in a rush, but would like to sell before major expenses like a roof come up. It was built in 1997. Are their websites that show trends for different areas? How do you figure out when the best time is to sell? Or at least a good time?

If specifics would help, I would be glad to pm someone.


Fishingmn

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Re: Market Timing: property
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2014, 07:40:06 AM »
I would base a decision more on the timing that works best for your situation than trying to guess which direction the market may be going.

That said, in Minnesota there are great statistical tools put out by my local Realtor Association which may be available in your location (Here's ours - http://mplsrealtor.com/)  They show weekly market reports showing trends on sales & prices for the past 8 years and detailed reports on every single city/suburb in the Twin Cities on a year over year basis.

Poorman

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Re: Market Timing: property
« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2014, 03:14:56 PM »
I know most of Minnesota is rural but the Case Shiller index for Minneapolis shows that current prices are above the long term trend line and resemble a smaller-sized bubble.  This is the case in a lot of markets right now because low, low rates have caused things to get overheated.  That doesn't mean prices are going to crash, but it might mean limited upside if rates start to climb and affordability gets pinched further.  Prices could drop in some markets.  If you sell this year or sometime in 2015, your timing is probably pretty good.  This is all my opinion of course.

http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-mn-minneapolis-home-price-index

waltworks

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Re: Market Timing: property
« Reply #3 on: June 20, 2014, 06:42:43 PM »
Like Poorman, I think prices will be stable to very slightly up for the next 18 months or so. And like him, I'm basically just guessing there - I'm assuming the Fed will stand by their basic rate policy (ie we will still see super low rates for a while longer) but they'll creep up.

If the economy goes nuts (possible) or crashes (possible) all bets are off.

I'd just not worry about it and sell whenever it makes sense for your life. Less headache and less stress that way.

-W

Workinghard

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Re: Market Timing: property
« Reply #4 on: June 20, 2014, 08:22:22 PM »
Thanks for the input and links! Both of us work overtime, so it's hard going through household stuff, but I really want to get things in order by spring. We will get a comparative market analysis done and go from there. I agree, we should focus on personal timing versus whether property is up or down. And if we could sell before it needs a new roof house too.

123flip

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Re: Market Timing: property
« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2014, 03:33:03 PM »
My recommendation would be not to try to time the market -- it's tough to ever know where a sub-market is headed short-term...

That said, there are certainly times of the year when selling is better, especially in colder climates.  You'll likely find that values dip considerably between October and March, and are highest about this time of year (weather, school cycle, etc).

If you're looking to sell in the next 12 months, I'd recommend either doing it immediately or waiting until next Spring.

Workinghard

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Re: Market Timing: property
« Reply #6 on: June 21, 2014, 07:27:12 PM »
Thanks. We're in FL and were thinking about early spring. If it doesn't sell we will take it off the market. It's not like we "have" to sell, we just want to.

My recommendation would be not to try to time the market -- it's tough to ever know where a sub-market is headed short-term...

That said, there are certainly times of the year when selling is better, especially in colder climates.  You'll likely find that values dip considerably between October and March, and are highest about this time of year (weather, school cycle, etc).

If you're looking to sell in the next 12 months, I'd recommend either doing it immediately or waiting until next Spring.