Author Topic: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?  (Read 17480 times)

GilesMM

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Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« on: November 13, 2024, 08:19:51 AM »
How does this work if one can only borrow about 3x their income?


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-home-price-to-income-ratio-by-state/




RWD

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2024, 09:11:54 AM »
How does this work if one can only borrow about 3x their income?

When I moved this year, I got a mortgage for a new house without a contingency on selling my old one. The new mortgage was initially 3.3x our combined income. But our old mortgage was already ~2x our income. So overall we were borrowing 5.3x our income. I suspect that 3x income guideline is... outdated in real world borrowing.

Lenders don't care about ratio of income to house value. They care about your debt-to-income (DTI = monthly payment/gross income). Typically 36% is preferred but 43% is passable. At 36% DTI with 7% interest rates, a 20% down payment, 1% property tax, 0.33% home insurance, and no other debts you can borrow on a house worth 4.6x your gross income. At 43% DTI (all other variables the same) that increases to about 5.5x.

The 3x rule is more of a fiscally responsible guideline so that you can afford other things in your life.

RWD

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2024, 09:15:49 AM »
And one more variable tweak... At 3% interest rates and 43% DTI (all other variables the same as my last post) the amount of house you can "afford" is 8x your gross income!

clarkfan1979

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2024, 10:01:14 AM »
In order to get a housing market crash, you need distressed sellers. The more distressed sellers, the bigger the crash. A crash is not predicted by the unaffordability for new buyers. Based the data provided Hawaii is the most unaffordable. However, in my opinion, it's far from the most likely to crash. It's unaffordable because demand is much higher than supply. Kauai County has 73,000 people and they average 50-100 closings per month (single family homes & condos). For comparison, Fort Myers has 97,000 people and they average 4,000-5,000 closings per month (single family homes & condos). 

Current sellers have too much equity to be distressed. If they want to sell they will wait to get their number. The more unrealistic their number, the longer they will wait to get it. Yes, some people need to move (job, divorce, etc...). However, there isn't enough of them to move the needle. We have had unaffordable homes for the past 2 years with the higher interest rates and no crash.

One of my wife's best friends from high school texted her last night to tell her that they are under contract for a new house. They made a contingency offer on a 985K house and it was accepted. They then listed their current house for 650K and got 10 offers in 7 days with the accepted offer at 665K. Dual income family (250K-300K) in their early 40's in Fort Collins, CO.




How does this work if one can only borrow about 3x their income?


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-home-price-to-income-ratio-by-state/





roomtempmayo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2024, 10:56:35 AM »
In order to get a housing market crash, you need distressed sellers. The more distressed sellers, the bigger the crash. A crash is not predicted by the unaffordability for new buyers.

Yes, and the other thing is that the distress has to last.

After the 2009 crash, the market didn't correct to clearing prices until 2013, at which point they had partially rebounded because lending had normalized.

A widespread crash tomorrow with a serious recession probably wouldn't turn into a buying opportunity for at least a couple years for the typical person who wants to buy through normal channels (not foreclosure auctions) and needs bank financing.

GilesMM

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2024, 11:13:07 AM »
How does this work if one can only borrow about 3x their income?

When I moved this year, I got a mortgage for a new house without a contingency on selling my old one. The new mortgage was initially 3.3x our combined income. But our old mortgage was already ~2x our income. So overall we were borrowing 5.3x our income. I suspect that 3x income guideline is... outdated in real world borrowing.

Lenders don't care about ratio of income to house value. They care about your debt-to-income (DTI = monthly payment/gross income). Typically 36% is preferred but 43% is passable. At 36% DTI with 7% interest rates, a 20% down payment, 1% property tax, 0.33% home insurance, and no other debts you can borrow on a house worth 4.6x your gross income. At 43% DTI (all other variables the same) that increases to about 5.5x.

The 3x rule is more of a fiscally responsible guideline so that you can afford other things in your life.


Good point!  Not frugal for sure (after income tax one would be living on maybe 30% of gross income), but gets one into a house in the midwest assuming no credit card, student loan nor auto debt and a healthy down payment. Still doesn't work in the Western states, NY or even FL!  Is it realistic?

SilentC

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2024, 11:34:23 AM »
Part of how it works too is in the high price-to-income states, people will just have to move their a$$ more.  Young people who don’t move their a$$ will have to leave, have a 90 minute commute to work, downsize or get help from parents to stay in the high cost areas.  Existing homeowners will vote in ways that help them not have to accelerate their a$$es and it will be at the expense of young people without homes.

lhamo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2024, 11:42:30 AM »
The structure of the housing supply might also change things.  As the average price of single family homes has pushed them out of affordability range for many people here in Seattle, there have also been major changes in zoning in order to encourage new development of multi-family housing.  There are now large portions of the city where it is feasible to add 1-2 additional small housing units per lot.  Some people are adding these as an additional income stream and/or to provide housing to other family members, but another approach I have seen (and something a builder I was working with suggested as an option for me, eventually) is to condo-ize what was a single family property. 

Depending on what my kids do in the next 5-10 years, I may end up with 2-3 separate housing units on my 6000 sq ft lot, each worth 600-800k.  Still expensive housing compared to what you can buy in other parts of the country, but relatively affordable in the Seattle context.

kanga1622

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2024, 11:54:36 AM »
What is really missing in this equation to me is taxes and insurance. I see so many people in my other (mainstream) finance groups that bought a home in the last few years with the higher interest rates and the now higher insurance is driving it to be an unaffordable monthly mortgage payment. The higher buying prices that people are stretching to afford quickly becomes unaffordable when insurance costs go up $200 a month 2-3 years in a row.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2024, 01:37:18 PM »
What is really missing in this equation to me is taxes and insurance. I see so many people in my other (mainstream) finance groups that bought a home in the last few years with the higher interest rates and the now higher insurance is driving it to be an unaffordable monthly mortgage payment. The higher buying prices that people are stretching to afford quickly becomes unaffordable when insurance costs go up $200 a month 2-3 years in a row.

Yep. Anybody that bought in the last couple of years hoping to refinance into a lower mortgage rate has gotten burned pretty badly. If home values have dipped as well, they could be paying hundreds more per month while now being underwater too.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2024, 01:39:30 PM by Paper Chaser »

spartana

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2024, 08:47:53 PM »
The structure of the housing supply might also change things.  As the average price of single family homes has pushed them out of affordability range for many people here in Seattle, there have also been major changes in zoning in order to encourage new development of multi-family housing.  There are now large portions of the city where it is feasible to add 1-2 additional small housing units per lot.  Some people are adding these as an additional income stream and/or to provide housing to other family members, but another approach I have seen (and something a builder I was working with suggested as an option for me, eventually) is to condo-ize what was a single family property. 

Depending on what my kids do in the next 5-10 years, I may end up with 2-3 separate housing units on my 6000 sq ft lot, each worth 600-800k.  Still expensive housing compared to what you can buy in other parts of the country, but relatively affordable in the Seattle context.
This is something that's becoming more popular in Calif. A recent Senate bill SB9 allows the owner of a single family home/property to split it and sell off half. Each half can have 2 individual houses on it. So, if you were in Calif, you could split your 6000 SF lot, sell the other 3000 SF and then own the the other half. Keep your home and maybe build another as a rental. So it ends up that 4 homes can occupy the space that one home previously occupied and 1 SFH property becomes 2.  I may be wrong on the details but that's my understanding. Of course most people just add a couple of ADUs to rent out or airbnb but lot splitting is becoming a thing in the burbs.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2024, 08:50:32 PM by spartana »

YttriumNitrate

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #11 on: November 14, 2024, 06:33:09 AM »
For comparison, Fort Myers has 97,000 people and they average 4,000-5,000 closings per month (single family homes & condos).
~55,000 closings per year for an area with 97,000 people seems crazy high even for a place with a bunch of snow birds. Do have a source for this number?

LaineyAZ

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #12 on: November 14, 2024, 07:03:27 AM »
I have to ask, with adding these ADUs via splitting the lots and other new regulations, how does that affect the infrastructure?

I'd imagine there'd be issues with sewer and water lines, parking, traffic, etc. 

I'm all for increasing density if it can be accomplished fairly easily.  But I'm sure the original zoning plat design assumed x number of residents and if there's suddenly 3x that has to have a big impact.

spartana

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #13 on: November 14, 2024, 08:00:48 AM »
I have to ask, with adding these ADUs via splitting the lots and other new regulations, how does that affect the infrastructure?

I'd imagine there'd be issues with sewer and water lines, parking, traffic, etc. 

I'm all for increasing density if it can be accomplished fairly easily.  But I'm sure the original zoning plat design assumed x number of residents and if there's suddenly 3x that has to have a big impact.
Here in Calif they are pretty regulated on how you can do everything but it's still a mess for many residential neighborhoods to go from a single house on a small lot to 3 houses (main house plus 2 ADUs) or 4 houses/duplexes on a split lot. Most places are on separate utilities and most have to adhere to parking/driveway regulations based on how many bedrooms. But adding separate home or ADUs (many which are turned into Airbnbs) can often house way more people if you are close to a bus line and bypass parking regulations and then it can be a mad house.

It's one of the main reasons I sold my house when 2 little houses right across from me, and one little house behind me, were torn down and all built a giant 2 story house plus 2 ADUs each and turned them into Airbnbs.  Also a change it how close to an adjacent property line was changed and I believe it's 4 feet now so many new ADUs (1200 SF) are built right up to the property line.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2024, 08:07:07 AM by spartana »

lhamo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #14 on: November 14, 2024, 09:10:15 AM »
Here in Seattle the most obvious issue (and pushback surrounding it) has been parking.  People mostly have their garages full of crap (when they have them --- many older houses in older neighborhoods don't, or they are too small for modern cars) and don't want to lose the ability to park curbside in front of their house.

As parking density increases, they have added neighborhood parking zones where you can apply for a permit as a resident at minimal cost, and daytime parking limits of 1-4 hours (depending on how tight parking is) for anyone without one of those permits.  That seems to help in most places.

The bigger issue that most people don't think much about is water/sewage treatment.  Our infrastructure is old and struggles to deal with the existing population.  A friend of mine just moved into a job with the city related to water conservation -- he mentioned that the low hanging fruit have all been harvested, and he has the tricky job of trying to figure out how to make our water system more sustainable as the supply drops due to climate change (glaciers melting rapidly/summers dryer and hotter) and the population continues to grow.


spartana

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2024, 09:40:39 AM »
^^^ Parking and infrastructure - especially water and wastewater - are a huge problem here when it comes to increasing the number of housing units/people here. Many garages are converted to Junior ADUs along with increasing the size of the main house and a second larger detached ADU. So almost no parking and permits are rare. Technically the owner needs to supply one parking space on a driveway for each ADU plus at least 2 parking spaces for a 3 bedroom house and 3 parking spaces for a 5 bedroom and larger place. Unless you are close to a bus line. Then you don't need to do that. So many expanded houses and ADUs don't have parking at all for the number if occupants that live there.

For example (if you remember) when I sold my last house  in OC the owner/investor tore it down and built an 7 bedroom (maybe 8 not sure) giant house plus a 2 bedroom ADU plus converted the garage to a junior ADU. It became single bedroom monthly  rentals - many for students who shared a room. Plus 4 people sharing the ADU and one or 2 in the junior ADU. There were only 3 parking spots. My poor former neighbors said it was a nightmare.  This happened to several other near by homes and just had a huge cascade effect. At least regular apts provide parking.
« Last Edit: November 14, 2024, 09:44:01 AM by spartana »

GilesMM

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2024, 09:55:18 AM »
For comparison, Fort Myers has 97,000 people and they average 4,000-5,000 closings per month (single family homes & condos).
~55,000 closings per year for an area with 97,000 people seems crazy high even for a place with a bunch of snow birds. Do have a source for this number?


Zillow shows about 1,100 SFH, condo and TH closings in the last twelve months in FM.




Paper Chaser

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2024, 10:02:09 AM »
For comparison, Fort Myers has 97,000 people and they average 4,000-5,000 closings per month (single family homes & condos).
~55,000 closings per year for an area with 97,000 people seems crazy high even for a place with a bunch of snow birds. Do have a source for this number?

Redfin's data shows sales in Ft. Meyers peaked around 350/month in 2021 and have fallen down below 100 per month. Their "Days on market" metric has now risen above pre-pandemic levels as well, so homes aren't selling very quickly:

https://www.redfin.com/city/6208/FL/Fort-Myers/housing-market

sonofsven

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2024, 10:18:01 AM »
Here in Seattle the most obvious issue (and pushback surrounding it) has been parking.  People mostly have their garages full of crap (when they have them --- many older houses in older neighborhoods don't, or they are too small for modern cars) and don't want to lose the ability to park curbside in front of their house.

As parking density increases, they have added neighborhood parking zones where you can apply for a permit as a resident at minimal cost, and daytime parking limits of 1-4 hours (depending on how tight parking is) for anyone without one of those permits.  That seems to help in most places.

The bigger issue that most people don't think much about is water/sewage treatment.  Our infrastructure is old and struggles to deal with the existing population.  A friend of mine just moved into a job with the city related to water conservation -- he mentioned that the low hanging fruit have all been harvested, and he has the tricky job of trying to figure out how to make our water system more sustainable as the supply drops due to climate change (glaciers melting rapidly/summers dryer and hotter) and the population continues to grow.

I'd like to see Seattle's official policy: "When It's Yellow, Let It Mellow".

clarkfan1979

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2024, 01:52:09 PM »
Below is my source. A real estate agent sends me a monthly report. I think Fort Myers has 97,000 full-time residents, but many people own second homes in the area that are not full-time residents. The July report might be higher than normal for transactions because there are many large developments being built. It seems like 500 houses and 500 condos is closer to the monthly norm, which is about 10X the closings of Kauai county. I apologize for any confusion.

https://issuu.com/www.johnrwood.com/docs/monthly_market_report_july_2024

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2024, 05:44:35 PM »
What is really missing in this equation to me is taxes and insurance. I see so many people in my other (mainstream) finance groups that bought a home in the last few years with the higher interest rates and the now higher insurance is driving it to be an unaffordable monthly mortgage payment. The higher buying prices that people are stretching to afford quickly becomes unaffordable when insurance costs go up $200 a month 2-3 years in a row.

Yep. Anybody that bought in the last couple of years hoping to refinance into a lower mortgage rate has gotten burned pretty badly. If home values have dipped as well, they could be paying hundreds more per month while now being underwater too.

When I see this graphic and the OP's graphic, I'm amazed by the apparent lack of arbitrage.

Why did insurance not rise on the Alabama coast at the same rate as Louisiana or Florida? Literally dark blue counties next to nearly white! And look at the spottiness of Iowa. The differences between states might reflect laws, but then how does one explain the differences between counties?

With home values, what compels people to pay 4.8x in Tennessee but not 3.3x in adjoining Kentucky? How is Rhode Island 5.4x and Connecticut is 4.3x? What's the difference between Montana at 6.6x and Wyoming at 4.8x? I know it probably comes down to one or two suddenly popular cities - e.g. Tennessee has Nashville! - but that only breaks the problem down to a different level. Why not pick a different city? Is the quality of governance between very similar places so stark that it's worth hundreds of thousands of dollars?

How does this work if one can only borrow about 3x their income?
When I moved this year, I got a mortgage for a new house without a contingency on selling my old one. The new mortgage was initially 3.3x our combined income. But our old mortgage was already ~2x our income. So overall we were borrowing 5.3x our income. I suspect that 3x income guideline is... outdated in real world borrowing.
I suspect the old ratios and rules of thumb, like not spending more than 30% of income on rent or a mortgage, are not outdated. If you violate these principles you will be at much higher risk of having liquidity problems, have insufficient financial flexibility to save or handle contingencies, and will be a higher default risk.

Updating our standards in response to a market bubble reminds me of how people during the dot-com bubble were referring to valuation metrics as irrelevant anachronisms.


YttriumNitrate

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #21 on: November 15, 2024, 05:57:00 AM »
Below is my source. A real estate agent sends me a monthly report. I think Fort Myers has 97,000 full-time residents, but many people own second homes in the area that are not full-time residents. The July report might be higher than normal for transactions because there are many large developments being built. It seems like 500 houses and 500 condos is closer to the monthly norm, which is about 10X the closings of Kauai county. I apologize for any confusion.
https://issuu.com/www.johnrwood.com/docs/monthly_market_report_july_2024
4,448 closings in the last 12 months, or about 380 a month, sounds much more reasonable. Based on the average sale price of $500k, and prices broken down by condo/SFH (see pages 12/13), the 380/month number includes both condos and houses.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #22 on: November 21, 2024, 05:17:23 AM »
Inventory low means prices won't fall much. Inventory high, means prices have room to drop.


Gulf Coast and Mountain West seem like the most precarious regions at the moment. One thing that stands out to me, is lots of the places with inventory climbing saw big booms in demand in recent years. In many cases, a chunk of that demand came from investors wanting to AirBnB homes rather than using them as a primary residence. Florida, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West, and even Smoky Mountains all saw big surges in demand for vacation rentals but are now seeing available inventory climb and values cool.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2024, 05:21:44 AM by Paper Chaser »

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #23 on: November 21, 2024, 06:49:01 AM »
Inventory low means prices won't fall much. Inventory high, means prices have room to drop.


Gulf Coast and Mountain West seem like the most precarious regions at the moment. One thing that stands out to me, is lots of the places with inventory climbing saw big booms in demand in recent years. In many cases, a chunk of that demand came from investors wanting to AirBnB homes rather than using them as a primary residence. Florida, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West, and even Smoky Mountains all saw big surges in demand for vacation rentals but are now seeing available inventory climb and values cool.
Do I see an overlap between inventory growth and the places that have had the highest increases in insurance premiums (FL, LA, UT, CO) versus lowest insurance increases (MI, New England, WI, IL)?

GilesMM

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #24 on: November 21, 2024, 07:19:05 AM »
Inventory low means prices won't fall much. Inventory high, means prices have room to drop.
...
Gulf Coast and Mountain West seem like the most precarious regions at the moment. One thing that stands out to me, is lots of the places with inventory climbing saw big booms in demand in recent years. In many cases, a chunk of that demand came from investors wanting to AirBnB homes rather than using them as a primary residence. Florida, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West, and even Smoky Mountains all saw big surges in demand for vacation rentals but are now seeing available inventory climb and values cool.


Florida is pretty much in free-fall:



Paper Chaser

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #25 on: November 21, 2024, 08:38:11 AM »
Inventory low means prices won't fall much. Inventory high, means prices have room to drop.


Gulf Coast and Mountain West seem like the most precarious regions at the moment. One thing that stands out to me, is lots of the places with inventory climbing saw big booms in demand in recent years. In many cases, a chunk of that demand came from investors wanting to AirBnB homes rather than using them as a primary residence. Florida, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West, and even Smoky Mountains all saw big surges in demand for vacation rentals but are now seeing available inventory climb and values cool.
Do I see an overlap between inventory growth and the places that have had the highest increases in insurance premiums (FL, LA, UT, CO) versus lowest insurance increases (MI, New England, WI, IL)?

Maybe a bit of a chicken/egg scenario. The areas seeing inventory growth all saw real estate values skyrocket thanks to high demand. Higher values + higher mortgage rates lead to affordability issues for buyers of course, but also to higher replace/rebuild costs for insurers. So buyers dry up quickly or look elsewhere all together.

If you bought an AirBnB in Gatlinburg, or Phoenix, or St. Pete in 2023, based on pandemic pricing expectations and the hope that you could refinance to a lower rate, what do you do when your customers stop showing up, or you have to lower your nightly rates to compete and you can't refinance to a lower rate? Many locales have also adopted less friendly policy towards short term rentals, taxing them more or limiting how many can be owned without penalty fees. Then add higher insurance premiums each month on top of that, and the math gets uglier.

spartana

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #26 on: November 21, 2024, 10:47:39 AM »
"LOS ANGELES, Nov. 19, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- California home sales rebounded in October, reversing two straight months of sales declines and registering the fastest year-over-year sales pace in 40 months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today."

"Orange County Real Estate Market Report and Trends
The median list price for single-family homes in Orange County this week is $1,799,000, down slightly from $1,850,000 last week. Orange County, CA Housing Market: House Prices & Trends"

The median sale price of a home in Orange County was $1.2M last month, up 9.4% since last year"   

And of course prices are/will increase as inventory - already very limited - continues to decline.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2024, 10:58:02 AM by spartana »

dandarc

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #27 on: November 21, 2024, 12:46:27 PM »
For comparison, Fort Myers has 97,000 people and they average 4,000-5,000 closings per month (single family homes & condos).
~55,000 closings per year for an area with 97,000 people seems crazy high even for a place with a bunch of snow birds. Do have a source for this number?
Bankrate says 112 homes sold in Ft. Myers in September.

Edit: Maybe if the whole surrounding area is included between Cape Coral and Naples as well? But then the population is way higher than 97K.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2024, 12:49:54 PM by dandarc »

roomtempmayo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #28 on: November 26, 2024, 12:00:56 PM »
Inventory low means prices won't fall much. Inventory high, means prices have room to drop.


Gulf Coast and Mountain West seem like the most precarious regions at the moment. One thing that stands out to me, is lots of the places with inventory climbing saw big booms in demand in recent years. In many cases, a chunk of that demand came from investors wanting to AirBnB homes rather than using them as a primary residence. Florida, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West, and even Smoky Mountains all saw big surges in demand for vacation rentals but are now seeing available inventory climb and values cool.

Post-pandemic there were constant "everyone is moving out of California" headlines.

Somehow we aren't getting the same drumbeat of "everyone is leaving Phoenix, Austin, and Tampa" headlines now.

Looks like Hartford, Rochester, and Chicago are really trending.

reeshau

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #29 on: November 26, 2024, 12:25:50 PM »
Housing inventory needs to be considered in context with job growth.  People move for all kinds of reasons, but moving for a job is one of the stickier ones.  And if jobs are declining, then markets may tank, even if inventory is also decreasing.

There are lots of places with similar data, but this is the closest overlap I could find to the time frame of the preceding housing map: March 2019 to March 2024.

FINate

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #30 on: November 26, 2024, 01:06:49 PM »
Inventory low means prices won't fall much. Inventory high, means prices have room to drop.


Gulf Coast and Mountain West seem like the most precarious regions at the moment. One thing that stands out to me, is lots of the places with inventory climbing saw big booms in demand in recent years. In many cases, a chunk of that demand came from investors wanting to AirBnB homes rather than using them as a primary residence. Florida, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West, and even Smoky Mountains all saw big surges in demand for vacation rentals but are now seeing available inventory climb and values cool.

Post-pandemic there were constant "everyone is moving out of California" headlines.

Somehow we aren't getting the same drumbeat of "everyone is leaving Phoenix, Austin, and Tampa" headlines now.

Looks like Hartford, Rochester, and Chicago are really trending.

I dunno, there was a lot of media buzz around predictions that Zoomtowns would crash. I live in Boise and we got constant headlines about this in '22 and '23. But it never really materialized. Prices declined a little as mortgage rates increased, but there were almost zero distressed sellers and inventory remained very low. If you look at the inventory graphic above, you'll notice that inventory in Boise is almost unchanged compared to 2019. The mountain west is a mixed bag.

clarkfan1979

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #31 on: November 27, 2024, 03:50:28 AM »
What about sales price? Isn't that what everyone is really interested in?

Total number of houses for sale (active inventory) doesn't mean much by itself. However, if you add average days on market to the equation, you get the total number of months of supply of houses. Is that correct? Wouldn't that be a better metric?

Typically, less than 6 months supply is a sellers market and more than 6 months supply is a buyers market. However, because we have very few distressed sellers, it might be possible that we have more than 6 months of supply, but very stubborn sellers that will not come down on price so houses just sit.


Paper Chaser

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2024, 11:21:58 AM »
What about sales price? Isn't that what everyone is really interested in?

Total number of houses for sale (active inventory) doesn't mean much by itself. However, if you add average days on market to the equation, you get the total number of months of supply of houses. Is that correct? Wouldn't that be a better metric?

Typically, less than 6 months supply is a sellers market and more than 6 months supply is a buyers market. However, because we have very few distressed sellers, it might be possible that we have more than 6 months of supply, but very stubborn sellers that will not come down on price so houses just sit.

There are always exceptions to a general rule like that. Austin, TX for example saw home prices begin to decline in June 2022, and had just 2.1 mo inventory at the time. Inventory has yet to climb over 4.8mo supply, and yet prices there have fallen over 19% from their 2022 peak.



Also worth keeping in mind that new home construction is now a huge percentage of transactions, and new home builders often have incentives to improve affordability that isn't reflected in selling price. Lennar is currently offering 3.99% mortgages for some new homes for example.



clarkfan1979

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #33 on: November 29, 2024, 06:57:25 AM »
What about sales price? Isn't that what everyone is really interested in?

Total number of houses for sale (active inventory) doesn't mean much by itself. However, if you add average days on market to the equation, you get the total number of months of supply of houses. Is that correct? Wouldn't that be a better metric?

Typically, less than 6 months supply is a sellers market and more than 6 months supply is a buyers market. However, because we have very few distressed sellers, it might be possible that we have more than 6 months of supply, but very stubborn sellers that will not come down on price so houses just sit.

There are always exceptions to a general rule like that. Austin, TX for example saw home prices begin to decline in June 2022, and had just 2.1 mo inventory at the time. Inventory has yet to climb over 4.8mo supply, and yet prices there have fallen over 19% from their 2022 peak.



Also worth keeping in mind that new home construction is now a huge percentage of transactions, and new home builders often have incentives to improve affordability that isn't reflected in selling price. Lennar is currently offering 3.99% mortgages for some new homes for example.



I've seen John Burns interviewed a few times on bigger pockets over the past 5-7 years. Very impressed with his simplistic approach to real estate evaluation. Do you need a subscription to access his reports?

roomtempmayo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #34 on: January 01, 2025, 11:57:56 AM »
How does this work if one can only borrow about 3x their income?

When I moved this year, I got a mortgage for a new house without a contingency on selling my old one. The new mortgage was initially 3.3x our combined income. But our old mortgage was already ~2x our income. So overall we were borrowing 5.3x our income. I suspect that 3x income guideline is... outdated in real world borrowing.

Lenders don't care about ratio of income to house value. They care about your debt-to-income (DTI = monthly payment/gross income). Typically 36% is preferred but 43% is passable. At 36% DTI with 7% interest rates, a 20% down payment, 1% property tax, 0.33% home insurance, and no other debts you can borrow on a house worth 4.6x your gross income. At 43% DTI (all other variables the same) that increases to about 5.5x.

The 3x rule is more of a fiscally responsible guideline so that you can afford other things in your life.

The other day my wife and I were gobsmacked to find out that one of her coworkers and her husband had just closed on a house for $1.5M.  Optimistically, their household income is $300k.  They might have a little equity from the last house, but closing costs are going to eat most of it.  And maybe there's hidden family money.  But man, they're probably leveraged up 5x on their annual income for a primary home.  Who does that?!

It was such an outlier from our experience where most everyone we know is in a house that's 1x-2x their annual income, that I became curious: Who does that?  Clearly lots of people are, based on the graphic above.  And knowing both the distribution of household incomes in our city (only 5% make north of $210k, which is typical for the US) and the number of seven figure houses around (lots), it's pretty easy to infer that people are crazy leveraged.  But the interweb seemed unable to provide any real demographics of who tends to buy a primary house at 4x or 5x their income, especially on the high end.  It feels like there's a whole parallel universe in our city that we don't understand.

Does anyone have any data, anecdota, or guesses about who these people are?

Dicey

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #35 on: January 01, 2025, 01:30:18 PM »
Here's some anecdata: I bought an 800sf California condo in 1996. I used a stated income, aka liar's, loan because they're easier, especially if one is 100% commission, as I was. There were plenty of times when the mortgage payment ate up 50% or slightly more of my net income. I lived there comfortably,  because I was good at managing the rest of the money. I continued to save, enjoy life, and even travel quite a bit, including ~ 20 states and two trips to Europe. I didn't have cable, I drove a used car, and took public transportation to work whenever possible, never ran up CC debt. Four years later, I sold it for more than twice what I paid for it.

My next place was much larger and cost about 7.5x my earnings. I was able to get another stated income loan, and I used the equity from the previous property to put 20% down. The larger place allowed me to have a roommate, which helped immensely. I paid $390k in 2001 and sold it in 2013 for $600k.

I sold it because I got married in late 2012 and our family's housing needs changed. We each sold our primary homes and paid cash for the next one. We got it on a short sale and paid $928k. I had just FIRE'd, so that amount was almost 10x our household earnings. Except we didn't need a loan. We knew the house was overbuilt for the neighborhood, but it allowed DH to walk to work, so we bought it, not expecting to see huge gains. To our surprise, it has nearly doubled in value.

Along the way, I/we bought three single family rental homes, all in the same resort community, which we still own. All three have lovely, low interest mortgages that we don't intend to pay off early.

That's how it happened for us in CA. I know Stated Income Loans no longer exist, but I made use of what was available to me at the time. I would say the keys were determination and willingness to make sacrifices to reach goals. I'd guess that's how a lot of people still do it.

roomtempmayo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #36 on: January 01, 2025, 03:21:12 PM »
Here's some anecdata: I bought an 800sf California condo in 1996. I used a stated income, aka liar's, loan because they're easier, especially if one is 100% commission, as I was. There were plenty of times when the mortgage payment ate up 50% or slightly more of my net income. ...

My next place was much larger and cost about 7.5x my earnings.

Wow, why?

I understand that it ultimately worked because of appreciation, but what was your thinking at the time?

Cassie

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #37 on: January 01, 2025, 06:48:00 PM »
My husband did contract work in San Jose for 6 months and the neighborhoods that allowed all the houses to be built on small lots were a mess. Homes took every inch of space or cars. The streets were packed with parked cars. Reno considered doing that but it was voted down.

Dicey

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #38 on: January 01, 2025, 09:26:38 PM »
Here's some anecdata: I bought an 800sf California condo in 1996. I used a stated income, aka liar's, loan because they're easier, especially if one is 100% commission, as I was. There were plenty of times when the mortgage payment ate up 50% or slightly more of my net income. ...

My next place was much larger and cost about 7.5x my earnings.

Wow, why?

I understand that it ultimately worked because of appreciation, but what was your thinking at the time?
Not sure I understand why you're asking "why?"

I did it because I needed to a place to live and I got it on a short sale? I did it because the payment wasn't all that much more than I was paying in rent? I did it because I live in a HCOLA? I did it because I had cancer in my very early twenties and owning my own home was a priority for me? I bought a larger place because I was a manufacturer's rep in need of a home office and a larger place to store the things that were a necessary part of the job? I did it because I knew I could count on myself to make it happen?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #39 on: January 02, 2025, 06:46:28 AM »
Here's some anecdata: I bought an 800sf California condo in 1996. I used a stated income, aka liar's, loan because they're easier, especially if one is 100% commission, as I was. There were plenty of times when the mortgage payment ate up 50% or slightly more of my net income. ...

My next place was much larger and cost about 7.5x my earnings.

Wow, why?

I understand that it ultimately worked because of appreciation, but what was your thinking at the time?
Not sure I understand why you're asking "why?"

I did it because I needed to a place to live and I got it on a short sale? I did it because the payment wasn't all that much more than I was paying in rent? I did it because I live in a HCOLA? I did it because I had cancer in my very early twenties and owning my own home was a priority for me? I bought a larger place because I was a manufacturer's rep in need of a home office and a larger place to store the things that were a necessary part of the job? I did it because I knew I could count on myself to make it happen?
I think @roomtempmayo 's question is why live in such a HCOL area, when you could pay a fifth as much to live in nice neighborhoods in all sorts of other places and boost your savings rate? Did these options enter the thought process?

RE appreciation probably made you rich, but it could have gone the other way too. And maybe it will in the future. At the time of the decisions, you were taking on massive leverage to make a concentrated investment. What made sense about that ultimately successful move in 1996-2013?

lhamo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #40 on: January 02, 2025, 08:02:32 AM »
Does anyone have any data, anecdota, or guesses about who these people are?

Here in Seattle most people have not been able to buy a house for 1-2x their annual income for a LOOOOONG time now.

How we bought a 1 mill house cash?  We sold one worth over twice that in Beijing.  That one had been purchased with a down payment we got from selling a NYC apartment for more than twice what we bought it for.  I've been very lucky in the real estate market, clearly.

How did the people who bought our house from us for 1.3 mill in cash do it?  They were an older couple with solid incomes and were buying it for their daughter.

MOst people paying cash or putting large down payments into expensive housing here are either using family money (how do you know those people you mentioned didn't get an inheritance or other gift from family?) or have done very well in tech or real estate.  Maybe people are taking out million dollar mortgages at 7%, but I kind of doubt it.  At one point I was looking into a cash out refi on the last house so I could purchase a new one for myself before the divorce settled, but the carrying costs of the loan would have been at least 40-50k. Wasn't willing to take that kind of hit.

Dicey

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #41 on: January 02, 2025, 03:32:34 PM »
Here's some anecdata: I bought an 800sf California condo in 1996. I used a stated income, aka liar's, loan because they're easier, especially if one is 100% commission, as I was. There were plenty of times when the mortgage payment ate up 50% or slightly more of my net income. ...

My next place was much larger and cost about 7.5x my earnings.

Wow, why?

I understand that it ultimately worked because of appreciation, but what was your thinking at the time?
Not sure I understand why you're asking "why?"

I did it because I needed to a place to live and I got it on a short sale? I did it because the payment wasn't all that much more than I was paying in rent? I did it because I live in a HCOLA? I did it because I had cancer in my very early twenties and owning my own home was a priority for me? I bought a larger place because I was a manufacturer's rep in need of a home office and a larger place to store the things that were a necessary part of the job? I did it because I knew I could count on myself to make it happen?
I think @roomtempmayo 's question is why live in such a HCOL area, when you could pay a fifth as much to live in nice neighborhoods in all sorts of other places and boost your savings rate? Did these options enter the thought process?

RE appreciation probably made you rich, but it could have gone the other way too. And maybe it will in the future. At the time of the decisions, you were taking on massive leverage to make a concentrated investment. What made sense about that ultimately successful move in 1996-2013?
Okay, here are some more details. I grew up in a town that was a much lower COL. I so wanted to own a home that I bought my first one there in 1988. It was a total dump, but as I walked it, I realized I knew the floorplan. I asked the seller and she said her former husband had been a custom home builder and that most of the houses had been in a specific horse property neighborhood on large lots. Yup, my BFF's parents owned one of those homes. Their garage was on one end, creating an L-shape, and the one I was considering was on a smaller lot, so the garage was on the front, creating a U-shape. I had seen an "after" so I knew I could handle the "before" version. The house cost $100k. My renovation budget was $6. I MacGuyvered the shit of that budget, stretching it to buy new carpet, (The house had glued down indoor/outdoor carpet in the kitchen that looked like stained glass. At the edge of the kitchen, three different colors of carpet all connected.) linoleum, interior paint, refinishing the kitchen cabinets and door hardware, taming the wild landscaping, including tree trimming, and a bunch more I don't remember. It would have been nice to actually live in it, but the commute was impossible. I rented it out instead. When I sold it ten years later, I listed it for $120K. I got a lowball offer from the original owner of $115k. Over the years I'd owned it I'd learned there were things about the house which she obviously knew but hadn't disclosed. I took her offer, because I knew she couldn't sue me. This was back when disclosures were less of a thing than they are now.

Gotta run...to be continued.

SilentC

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #42 on: January 02, 2025, 07:51:14 PM »
Maybe.  Since November I’ve seen three homes that a dual professional income family could have afforded pre-COVID go for ~15% under original ask.  The asks might have been rich but I haven’t seen that kind of action in a long time.  I think CO is well oversupplied in houses that are now too nice for most dual income families to afford at 7% rates but not fancy enough for the law firm partner to want to buy. 

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #43 on: January 09, 2025, 05:47:15 AM »


I'm immediately struck by the similarities to the job creation map that reeshau linked above



Are people moving toward opportunity, or are new jobs rising up due to increased demand?

ChpBstrd

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #44 on: January 09, 2025, 10:44:10 AM »
There's also a correspondence with the minimum wage in states people are leaving:

CA - $16
NJ - $15.13
NY - $15
ML - $15
IL - $14

...and the states they are moving to:

TX - $7.25
FL - $13
NC - $7.25
SC - $7.25
TN - $7.25

So one hypothesis is that basically the high-wage states banished low-paying jobs and exported that kind of work to the South. Basically they banned being working-poor. In doing so, they became more "exclusive" places and their property values rose. People who are only skilled enough to work low-wage jobs face pressures to move somewhere they can afford to live and can get a low-wage job. So it's off to Texas for people at the bottom of the socioeconomic class strata in the coastal states.

Higher minimum wages propped up everybody else's wages in the high-wage states, creating a cycle of real estate appreciation. Eventually it became infeasible to be a low wage earner in these locales, because such jobs were scarce and because housing costs were so high. Similarly, low wage jobs could be done more economically a few borders away.

The high-wage states may have exported a lot of their least economically productive people to the South, and they might be happy with the results of that tradeoff. They propped up their asset values by becoming the fancy neighborhoods in the United States and also exported a lot of dysfunctional people.

The South, meanwhile, gained a lot of GDP and political power. It also enjoyed its own real estate boom as a housing shortage developed. And because Southern safety nets are very minimal, the cost of importing dysfunction wasn't as high as the high-minimum-wage states were paying.

Paper Chaser

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #45 on: January 09, 2025, 11:07:31 AM »
I might buy that for NY, and especially CA, but IL being in the mix for low job creation and high emigration kind of throws a wrench in that.

The southern states seeing highest job growth and immigration are TX and FL. A poor person from IL isn't going to gain anything by moving to either one:


reeshau

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #46 on: January 09, 2025, 11:42:36 AM »
If you take minimum wage at the federal level as a proxy for "business friendly," I might buy it.  But it has very little to do with actual wages, post-pandemic.  Our school district was near a crisis because they couldn't recruit bus drivers at the labor-negotiated $15 / hour, training included.  Starting wage at Walmart is close to that.

I invested on the principles that 1) the US had underbuilt housing for more than a decade, following the 2008 financial crisis, and 2) that job growth is the "stickiest" reason for population growth.  Juiced by the pandemic, that thesis has turned out spectacularly.

lhamo

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #47 on: January 10, 2025, 05:43:50 AM »
If you take minimum wage at the federal level as a proxy for "business friendly," I might buy it.  But it has very little to do with actual wages, post-pandemic.  Our school district was near a crisis because they couldn't recruit bus drivers at the labor-negotiated $15 / hour, training included.  Starting wage at Walmart is close to that.

I invested on the principles that 1) the US had underbuilt housing for more than a decade, following the 2008 financial crisis, and 2) that job growth is the "stickiest" reason for population growth.  Juiced by the pandemic, that thesis has turned out spectacularly.

I wonder what the median wages would be on that map.  Do you have the link handy, and/or is that an option?  Because here in Washington state, I would guess that the large concentration of tech- and other higher-paying jobs in the greater Seattle area shifts the average wage quite a bit higher than the median.  A gut-level guess at median wage would be more in the low to mid-20s (lots more people earning closer to the minimum wage).

reeshau

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #48 on: January 10, 2025, 07:34:55 AM »
If you take minimum wage at the federal level as a proxy for "business friendly," I might buy it.  But it has very little to do with actual wages, post-pandemic.  Our school district was near a crisis because they couldn't recruit bus drivers at the labor-negotiated $15 / hour, training included.  Starting wage at Walmart is close to that.

I invested on the principles that 1) the US had underbuilt housing for more than a decade, following the 2008 financial crisis, and 2) that job growth is the "stickiest" reason for population growth.  Juiced by the pandemic, that thesis has turned out spectacularly.

I wonder what the median wages would be on that map.  Do you have the link handy, and/or is that an option?  Because here in Washington state, I would guess that the large concentration of tech- and other higher-paying jobs in the greater Seattle area shifts the average wage quite a bit higher than the median.  A gut-level guess at median wage would be more in the low to mid-20s (lots more people earning closer to the minimum wage).

It's just average values; all drop down choices are different averages.  This, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Sheesh.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/state-employment-and-unemployment/average-hourly-earnings-and-weekly-hours-and-earnings-by-state.htm

LaineyAZ

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Re: Is real estate fixing to crash in the East & West US?
« Reply #49 on: January 10, 2025, 08:18:02 AM »
There's also a correspondence with the minimum wage in states people are leaving:

CA - $16
NJ - $15.13
NY - $15
ML - $15
IL - $14

...and the states they are moving to:

TX - $7.25
FL - $13
NC - $7.25
SC - $7.25
TN - $7.25

So one hypothesis is that basically the high-wage states banished low-paying jobs and exported that kind of work to the South. Basically they banned being working-poor. In doing so, they became more "exclusive" places and their property values rose. People who are only skilled enough to work low-wage jobs face pressures to move somewhere they can afford to live and can get a low-wage job. So it's off to Texas for people at the bottom of the socioeconomic class strata in the coastal states.

Higher minimum wages propped up everybody else's wages in the high-wage states, creating a cycle of real estate appreciation. Eventually it became infeasible to be a low wage earner in these locales, because such jobs were scarce and because housing costs were so high. Similarly, low wage jobs could be done more economically a few borders away.

...

This makes sense from what we saw happen in New York City.  In the '70s and '80s the crime was high but as real estate continued going up and rents increased, then, as someone crudely put it, "the trash was swept away." 
Criminal types couldn't afford to stay and violence decreased.
I don't have any studies to point to, but did have 2 family members living there (1 of whom still lives there) who watched the whole transformation.