Hi, I'm new here. I just wanted to think out loud and ask for your criticism.
My FIRE goal: Be able to retire in most countries.
I own residential land in Turkey's capital city. I am HOPING I can exit soon.
FYI: Usually, construction companies and land owners cooperate in this country, and land owners get paid in flats rather than cash. Selling early means missing out on ROI, usually.
What's on my side:
1. Local development. Municipality will (hopefully) allow construction companies to build on our land. Confirmation in 2 months. Permits can be given in 8 months.
2. Purchasing power of locals increased. National house price to income ratio was 14 in mid 2023. Now it is 10.
3. City population increased by 20% in 2023 after earthquakes.
4. Interest rates are stupid high since 1.5 years ago. When this changes, people will attack real estate (houses, residential land, farmland) imo.
According to investors in my area, if permits are given, that would double market value of our land.
In 2022, house price index increased by ~100% in USD. I don't have data on residential land prices but I think it's a similar increase.
Most central banks follow Fed. TR seems to do exactly that. I observed that during and after pandemic except they changed the timing for elections.
> Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told CNBC on Monday that he currently prefers only one rate cut this year.
I guess everything boils down to what Fed does.
It is difficult to calculate final value of my land (in flats). But if house price index in USD increase by 50%, a rough estimate would be $2500/m2. Current listings in my area are $300-800/m2.
If I could sell for $1600/m2 in a few years, I'd sell, instead of waiting for flats.
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What's not on my side:
1. Currency risk. I do not understand how EXACTLY govt benefits from TRY being supported. If they end their support, maybe real estate market will crash (in USD/EUR). In Turkey beef is $20/kg rn, which is too high imo. And many professionals earn higher than they'd earn in most of Europe rn, which is weird.
2. If I want to wait until I own flats, I'd have to wait for municipality to build infrastructure. My land is 2km away from infrastructure. So developers will chose those parcels before my parcel. But some investors in my area say as soon as legal obstacles are lifted, this area would see rapid development.
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Data source: Numbeo (Property Prices Index by Country), Trdingview (ECONOMICS:TRHPI/FX:USDTRY), Selva Baziki on TRY support
