How to decide to keep or sell my duplex

[thorbjorn88]

I have a duplex I've been living in half of for 4 years. Our plan has always been to buy another house when we outgrew this space but keep it as an investment. We're very close to outgrowing it now and want to buy in late 2021 or early 2022. But with the market being crazy it looks like our property would sell for quite a bit. I'm trying to weigh the options of sticking to the plan vs selling the duplex buying a single family and reinvesting the difference. How would you crunch the numbers on this? I currently have a spreadsheet that calculates equity overtime and assumes 3% increase on property value, and then counts the net rent after 20% expenses. Do I compare the sum of these two numbers over time to the net between sale profit and down payment on the next house invested at 7%? What else should I take into consideration?

Details:
Mortgage balance: $238k
PITI: $1223
Total rent for both units: $2200
Estimated sale price from zillow/homebot is estimated at $368-423k
If we sold for $370k we would have $70k cash left after buying a new house to reinvest. This number includes $45k we have saved toward a down-payment already and assumes buying a house for $475k with 20% down.

[Sibley]

Are you sure you could buy a house for $300k? The market is crazy. If you're going to have trouble finding a house to buy, then you might be better off regardless of what the numbers say.

[thorbjorn88]

Are you sure you could buy a house for $300k? The market is crazy. If you're going to have trouble finding a house to buy, then you might be better off regardless of what the numbers say.

Sorry the remaining cash includes $45k we have saved up for a down payment already. This assumes buying a house for $475k
 

[Sibley]

Are you sure you could buy a house for $300k? The market is crazy. If you're going to have trouble finding a house to buy, then you might be better off regardless of what the numbers say.

Sorry the remaining cash includes $45k we have saved up for a down payment already. This assumes buying a house for $475k

Ok. Point probably still stands. You've budgeted x for a house. You find a house you want, listed for x, but the sellers get 20 offers and accept the offer for x+y, leaving you without a house. (This is happening in my area)

What's happening in your target area? If you've budgeted $475, are you realistically going to be able to get a house for that?

[Dicey]

I'd tie a knot and hang on for at least another year.

[PMJL34]

We need more information.

How much did you buy your duplex for?
Are you sure you can only get $2200 total for a duplex?
What is the configuration? Is it side by side or up down or something else. Is it 2bed each?
What are the expenses (property tax, insurance, utilities)? Any deferred maintenance or big ticket items coming up?

Without this information, I'd say sell unless you want to own rentals.

As sibley said, buy your next house first though. Keep this one for now and then sell this one after closing on your next, should you choose.

Best of luck!