Author Topic: How do People Parade These Numbers?  (Read 2209 times)

RangerOne

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How do People Parade These Numbers?
« on: June 19, 2017, 04:21:16 PM »
I like to pursue the constant "bubble" watch blogs floating around the internet. With regards to potential housing bubbles the following chart is popping up everywhere arguing this is definitive evidence there is no 2017 housing bubble.

This link is just one of many.
http://www.simplifyingthemarket.com/en/2017/06/15/are-home-prices-approaching-bubble-territory/

This single chart while interesting seems to ignore the simplest relevant factors. Like how the prices around the year 2000 were pegged around a 7% interest 30 year fixed mortgage 0.o

We have hit median prices that would fit the graph they pumped out but we have done so at 3% less interest and incomes are still stretched to the max in many cities to handle those supposedly "normal" price.

How can you reasonably parade this information around as anything significant without recognize that it took unrepresented and sustain low interest lending to after 6 years get prices back to bubble level prices.

If the 30 year mortgage went back to 7% overnight housing prices would crater again and they would realize how far off the market these prices are relative to the supposed 2000 era price they are theoretically appreciated from.

A complete lack of wage growth or even wage inflation does not equal a healthy 3% year over year growth in home values. The only way that happens after a decade of extremely weak wage growth is if home prices are still being fueled by a lack of inventory, foreign and domestic speculation and possibly higher income families lower their housing exceptions due to fear of getting priced out of desirable areas.

If anything this just serves to demonstrate the potentially toxic reality that if we move into a decades long increase in mortgage interest rates with no real wage growth home values are destined to flat-line or worse regress leaving people taking out risky ARMs and FHA's that were hoping to refi after being house poor for 5-10 years holding a shitty bag.

It may even be true that we are not in a housing bubble like 2007 era, but I would not consider this a healthy housing market that is just a natural progression of where we left off before that bubble took off. I don't know maybe I am way off base. It just seems the war cry from realtors that everything is okay and prices are just a bit high because inventory is tight are getting a little old and starting to sound like a cry of desperation to keep people hungry to buy.

marty998

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Re: How do People Parade These Numbers?
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2017, 05:26:22 AM »
When you say "we are not in a bubble"... what part of the country, or world are you talking about?

There is not one single market, and there are markets even within cities.

Pays to be specific in realestate. Most people will only care about the suburb they have their individual investments in

Cossack

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Re: How do People Parade These Numbers?
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2017, 07:29:53 AM »
When you say "we are not in a bubble"... what part of the country, or world are you talking about?

There is not one single market, and there are markets even within cities.

Pays to be specific in realestate. Most people will only care about the suburb they have their individual investments in

I agree. There are many markets that are scheduled to correct this year, but there is no single market.

Mr. Green

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Re: How do People Parade These Numbers?
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2017, 09:19:07 AM »
Homes in my area are still 10% below their peak selling price from 06-07. No bubble here!

clarkfan1979

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Re: How do People Parade These Numbers?
« Reply #4 on: June 23, 2017, 11:39:19 PM »
My FL house was worth about 265K in 2007. It fell to 95K when I bought it. Now it's worth about 235K. However, real job growth is responsible for the recovery and not blind speculation. Hertz moved their headquarters from New Jersey to within 8 miles of the house in 2014. It supposed to be 10,000 jobs by 2018.

Cassie

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Re: How do People Parade These Numbers?
« Reply #5 on: July 04, 2017, 02:08:45 PM »
House prices in NV are almost as high as 2007 with a low inventory. Although, there have not been any bidding wars. Also over priced homes are not selling. I think people here learned something from the last time.