Estimating deferred maintenance / single family rental

[Ceredwyn]

For those of you with single family rentals, what do you estimate for yearly maintenance including accrual of long term items like roof, HVAC, etc? I find the rules of thumb to be very unsatisfying on this topic because most of them quote "1-3% of property price" or "50% of rent", which to me is about as relevant as saying that spending should be a % of income. Rather, I think a more mustachian aligned way to think about it is that a 3000sqft house costs about X to maintain where X is a sum of the cost of every expected repair over a multi decade horizon divided by its expected frequency. From there you can adjust for local variance in taxes/insurance (which are known numbers) as well as whether contractor rates are higher or lower than national average.

Thoughts? I'm specifically asking because I have a couple properties where expenses have been very low over the past few years and I'd like a sanity check on my expectations of future maintenance. Mine are roughly 5br/3000sqft single family rentals in subdivisions with no HOA.

[Cwadda]

I do all my repair estimates by capital expenditures. This is taken by itemizing each repair and then dividing it by its average lifespan.

For example, a refrigerator may cost $700 and lasts for 10 years. This $5.83 per month.
For bigger repairs, you could get a contractor estimate for a roof project and just use that number.

[SwordGuy]

And remember to factor in inflation for the costs.

That fridge might be $5.83 a month this year, but you need to account for inflation for the following years.

[Drifterrider]

I don't account/accrue/factor for maintenance.

I renovated the house before renting so I have a lot of new stuff.  I had one repair last year because of hurricane damage (I had to replace all the ductwork).  Cost (incl travel, meals, hotel and materials) was $1,250.  I did the work.

This year a stove element quit working.  Repair was $75.  I didn't do the work.  Most everything else in the house, except the HVAC, was new when I rented it.

If it breaks I fix it but, I don't spend any of the net rents I collect monthly (I save it).   

The "rules" are guesstimates at best. 

[Mrtreasuretoupee]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if you ask a bank for a loan and they take rental income into account don't they only consider 80% of the rent?