So, from all the discussions and articles and such that I've seen, here are the factors driving prices up in many areas:
1) Buyers moving out of the city
2) Buyers moving from HCOL areas to LCOL areas (like CA -> UT or WA->ID)
3) Buyers "needing more space" because of WFH
4) Speculators ("investors")
5) Materials cost increase (due to people WFH and taking on more projects, and higher demand is driving prices higher)
6) FOMO/perceived shortages
7) Low interest rates (4->3% interest rate drop increases the buying power by 13%)
8) (to a small extent) Money from Uncle Sam
9) Several years of under-building (overcorrection from the housing boom/bust?) leading to short supply
10) Several months in 2020 when home sales were down a lot
Moving forward, here's what I sort of expect to see:
1) won't last forever. As people move out, prices in the city will correspondingly fall or stagnate, discouraging others from following
2) won't last forever, but I expect a long, slow migration
3) won't last forever
4) limited supply of speculators and their money, and they're generally looking to make a quick buck and get out
5) the market will catch back up
6) as soon as we stop talking so much about Covid, this will go away
7) absent another huge economic hit (like another pandemic or natural disaster), I see interest rates only going up
8) I don't think this is much of a factor anyway, and really hope they don't open the spigot again.
9) This one could take a few years for the market to work out
10) This will work itself out fairly quickly
In short, beyond the next year or two, I only see the following factors at play:
2) longer-term migration from HCOL to LCOL
9) shortage of new homes
I don't expect a massive crash a la 2007/8, given the high incidence of all-cash offers, tighter lending standards, etc. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a modest-to-moderate price drop once we exhaust current demand, followed by long-term stagnation or low growth.