Author Topic: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb  (Read 5612 times)

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bacchi

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2023, 02:31:51 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-65264165

A "1-in-1000" flood that will probably start happening more regularly.

Quote from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/04/10/sea-level-rise-southern-us/
Scientists have documented an abnormal and dramatic surge in sea levels along the U.S. gulf and southeastern coastlines since about 2010, raising new questions about whether New Orleans, Miami, Houston and other coastal communities might be even more at risk from rising seas than once predicted.

PMJL34

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2023, 03:52:01 PM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2023, 03:53:54 PM by PMJL34 »

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2023, 05:15:02 PM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

Floods, washed out roads, numerous trees falling on houses... not sure what else to call it.

GilesMM

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2023, 08:44:44 PM »


My wife's parents have a 2nd home in North Fort Myers, FL and they don't have a mortgage. Their insurance went up, so they cancelled the policy. I don't really believe property will become worthless because people can't afford the insurance. I think it's very possible that in 20-30 years the only people that can afford to live in Florida are people who don't have a mortgage. Prices might come down a little to accommodate that new trend, but I don't see a crash.


They can afford to self-insure (e.g. rebuild at their own cost if the place is demolished by a hurricane)?  Do they have personal liability (and umbrella) via another property?

PMJL34

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #55 on: April 14, 2023, 09:29:56 AM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

Floods, washed out roads, numerous trees falling on houses... not sure what else to call it.

lol come on now FInate you are pushing your agenda too hard now. We both know Pajaro is nowhere near Santa Cruz or remotely similar in it's demographics. We also both know that when it rains a little heavy or the wind is a bit stronger than usual, it's a "disaster." If it dare hails/snows (and by snow I mean for 20 seconds and less than .1 inches)/you name it, it's an emergency here and people freak out because we are used to the best weather and anything else is unacceptable.

Edit: for those unfamiliar...

Pajaro "It is located on the south bank of the Pajaro River 5 miles (8 km) northeast of its mouth,[6] at an elevation of 26 feet (7.9 m).[4] The population was 2,882 at the 2020 census, down from 3,070 in 2010...Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2,889 persons (94.1%)."

It's literally where the poorest/immigrants live. It is at sea level right next to a river. No one lives there nor wants to. Whereas Santa Cruz has some of the world's most expensive real estate and attracts millions of millions of people per year.

« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 09:39:02 AM by PMJL34 »

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #56 on: April 14, 2023, 09:55:36 AM »
If you haven't already drawn the straight line between climate change and the evolution/spread of new diseases, please pick up your pens now. Don't limit this to human infection. All species risk infection as we fuck up the planet (see little brown bats).

On a human scale, there is noplace that safe from the effects of ebola outbreaks, novel virus strains, etc. and as disease vectors, we are pretty damned good at spreading sickness all over the place - by ship, plane, train, car, and through aerosol and contact.

On the more observable side of weather events, wind and ice storms are occurring inland with higher intensity and frequency, and outpacing our municipal, provincial, and federal budgets. A 100 year storm means our budgets are prepared to fix that damage once every 100 years. With the frequency of these storms increasing, our budgets cannot keep up. Note tax increases through COVID and in the next 20 years - our already crumbling infrastructure is now seeing weather event loading beyond its original design.

Invasive species are upsetting the "normal" ecosystem as warming occurs (see "Dog Strangling Vine"). The change in temperature is affecting us already and upsetting crops and aquifers worldwide. This is a fight that is at a tipping point already, and to be honest, has been for some time.

There is no hidden to the time bomb. It is already going off, we just aren't willing to admit it.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #57 on: April 14, 2023, 10:06:02 AM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

Floods, washed out roads, numerous trees falling on houses... not sure what else to call it.

lol come on now FInate you are pushing your agenda too hard now. We both know Pajaro is nowhere near Santa Cruz or remotely similar in it's demographics. We also both know that when it rains a little heavy or the wind is a bit stronger than usual, it's a "disaster." If it dare hails/snows (and by snow I mean for 20 seconds and less than .1 inches)/you name it, it's an emergency here and people freak out because we are used to the best weather and anything else is unacceptable.

Please, what agenda?

I never mentioned Pajaro, though it was in the linked article, which was about the disaster declaration for Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties. Are you not aware of the flooding that occurred in Rio Del Mar and Capitola, both of which are in Santa Cruz County? I have family in public safety in the area so I keep up to date on what's happening in the area.  And I have friends who were unable to leave their homes for a number of days due to washouts and fallen trees. Everyone is saying this is the worst they've ever seen, worse even than the storms of 82/83.

The fact is, the feds, at the request of state and local officials, have officially declared it a disaster. Some folks who lost homes in the CZU fires (also an official disaster) have, after rebuilding, lost homes again to fallen trees.


Edit: for those unfamiliar...

Pajaro "It is located on the south bank of the Pajaro River 5 miles (8 km) northeast of its mouth,[6] at an elevation of 26 feet (7.9 m).[4] The population was 2,882 at the 2020 census, down from 3,070 in 2010...Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2,889 persons (94.1%)."

It's literally where the poorest/immigrants live. It is at sea level right next to a river. No one lives there nor wants to. Whereas Santa Cruz has some of the world's most expensive real estate and attracts millions of millions of people per year.

Yes, it's a great area. But what does this have to do with whether or not the winter storms are a disaster? As a result of the storms, the City of Santa Cruz is currently debating what to do about the extensive damage along Westcliff Dr, which is some of the most expensive real estate in the county. There's pretty broad agreement that the effects of climate change hit faster than anyone expected. Does the city "harden" the this stretch of coastline to protect multi-million dollar homes, which is a losing long-term battle with serious unintended consequences (such as negatively impacting the world-class surfing in that area). Or do they go with managed retreat that has serious financial implications for property owners. There are no good options. None of this is an attack on Santa Cruz, just the cold hard facts of climate change and sea level rise.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 10:28:31 AM by FINate »

PMJL34

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #58 on: April 15, 2023, 07:40:53 PM »
https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

FInate, not to get into a back and forth, but did you read the article you shared above? It's 100% about the flooding in Parajo, CA.

You then added two more links.

For the first link, the news anchor flat out stated that "Rio Del Mar floods nearly every year" and that no houses were damaged due to the flood.

The second link regarding Capitola Wharf: "Capitola City Manager Jamie Goldstein said last week that the initial estimate of public damages is more than $2.6 million, including the Capitola Wharf....The goal is to have these as the (Federal Emergency Management Agency) eligible reimbursement projects,” said Goldstein." We both know that the area is very wealthy and resourceful. Good for them to get 2.6 million from the federal government.

I don't know the region as well as you do, but I still feel confident saying it's a different ball game compared to the Fort Lauderdale flood that was caused by "more than 25 inches of rain in six to eight hours." That's insane! It closed the international airport, 900+ emergency calls, extensive damage, and more predicted as it is the start of their rainy season.

But yeah, I'm done comparing "natural disasters" as they all suck.
 


FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #59 on: April 15, 2023, 08:58:19 PM »
https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

FInate, not to get into a back and forth, but did you read the article you shared above? It's 100% about the flooding in Parajo, CA.

Yes, of course I read the article. It begins with (emphasis added):

Quote
On Monday night, President Joe Biden approved a Presidential Major Disaster Declaration for seven California counties, including Monterey and Santa Cruz, allowing for federal funding to provide relief for flooding and other extreme weather conditions that have taken place since mid-February.

I linked that article to cite my source for Santa Cruz being part of the federal disaster designation (whereas Pajaro is entirely in Monterey Country).

You then added two more links.

For the first link, the news anchor flat out stated that "Rio Del Mar floods nearly every year" and that no houses were damaged due to the flood.

The second link regarding Capitola Wharf: "Capitola City Manager Jamie Goldstein said last week that the initial estimate of public damages is more than $2.6 million, including the Capitola Wharf....The goal is to have these as the (Federal Emergency Management Agency) eligible reimbursement projects,” said Goldstein." We both know that the area is very wealthy and resourceful. Good for them to get 2.6 million from the federal government.

I don't know the region as well as you do, but I still feel confident saying it's a different ball game compared to the Fort Lauderdale flood that was caused by "more than 25 inches of rain in six to eight hours." That's insane! It closed the international airport, 900+ emergency calls, extensive damage, and more predicted as it is the start of their rainy season.

But yeah, I'm done comparing "natural disasters" as they all suck.
 

Flooding in the Rio Del Mar flats isn't super uncommon, but the level of flooding this year was different. Homes most certainly were damaged and businesses are still shut as they clean up and repair. Here's a good local source: https://archive.is/VbhbK You apparently don't really know what's going on there, so maybe don't comment on it.

It should also be noted that the entire population of Santa Cruz County is around 300k, whereas the Fort Lauderdale metro area it's over 6 million. In other words Ft Lauderdale is 20x larger, so of course the numbers there are going to be a lot larger. That doesn't make the smaller numbers in Santa Cruz less devastating. 

And yes, there's no need to make this a pissing match... which is why I'm perplexed by your taking issue with this in the first place.  We have loved ones impacted by the disaster there. They've lost property, businesses, and so on, there's no need or reason to minimize it or compare it to other places.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 09:13:00 PM by FINate »

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #60 on: April 15, 2023, 09:37:55 PM »
Getting this thread back on topic...

Most reasonable people have known for years that low lying coastal areas were in danger of sea level rise from a warming climate. So the damage in such areas in Santa Cruz Country (e.g. the Rio Del Mar flats) wasn't terribly surprising. The Tsunami Inundation Map for Santa Cruz County is a pretty good predictor for specific areas that will become increasingly problematic. The only thing surprising maybe is that the results of climate change hit sooner than expected as the result of king tides combined with a storm surge and high surf.

What was surprising was the CZU fire and how it burned through areas that were assumed to be low fire risk. Well, apparently a warmer and dryer climate means the redwood forests in this area aren't as safe as once believed. This new reality has already started to trickle down to homeowners, we know folks who are now paying 2-3x in insurance premiums, and many who have been forced onto the state run FAIR plan. Between fire, slides, and tree damage, life's been hard in the mountains for many folks.

Additionally, it's now apparent that elevation alone isn't sufficient protection from sea level rise, as the recent storms eroded coastal bluffs much faster than anyone anticipated. This means ocean front property, even if relatively high above sea level, is at higher risk than expected. This will soon be reflected in insurance rates. I don't think this means ocean front property will generally get super cheap, as there will always be those with the means and willingness to risk it for the views. But I do think this will eventually put downward pressure on prices as only those who can self insure and absorb a potential loss long term will be willing to purchase such properties. So maybe a $4M house becomes $3M.

In no way does this mean Santa Cruz as a whole is doomed, or any other such nonsense. But I would avoid buying a house in the woods, or in a flood zone, or right on the coast.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #61 on: April 16, 2023, 02:28:18 AM »
Getting this thread back on topic...


Additionally, it's now apparent that elevation alone isn't sufficient protection from sea level rise, as the recent storms eroded coastal bluffs much faster than anyone anticipated. This means ocean front property, even if relatively high above sea level, is at higher risk than expected. This will soon be reflected in insurance rates. I don't think this means ocean front property will generally get super cheap, as there will always be those with the means and willingness to risk it for the views. But I do think this will eventually put downward pressure on prices as only those who can self insure and absorb a potential loss long term will be willing to purchase such properties. So maybe a $4M house becomes $3M.
Here in the UK it's more or less impossible to get insurance against coastal erosion, and there is no obligation on local authorities to repair or replace roads lost to coastal erosion.  If property is lost to the sea or becomes inaccessible due to coastal erosion then it's a total financial loss.  I suspect much the same is true in the USA.

Coastal erosion here has speeded up considerably in the last two decades or so.  Some people who bought houses expecting then to be safe or at least to have several decades of use out of them have lost them much sooner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64455311
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64944384

This article (from 2019) gives a good indication of the likely human response to the problem everywhere: all shapes and sizes of denial plus some more or less informed risk-taking -

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees

There are houses on the market in that village and people are still buying them -

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/fairbourne.html?soldIn=5&page=1


GilesMM

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #62 on: April 16, 2023, 07:40:10 AM »
Getting this thread back on topic...


Additionally, it's now apparent that elevation alone isn't sufficient protection from sea level rise, as the recent storms eroded coastal bluffs much faster than anyone anticipated. This means ocean front property, even if relatively high above sea level, is at higher risk than expected. This will soon be reflected in insurance rates. I don't think this means ocean front property will generally get super cheap, as there will always be those with the means and willingness to risk it for the views. But I do think this will eventually put downward pressure on prices as only those who can self insure and absorb a potential loss long term will be willing to purchase such properties. So maybe a $4M house becomes $3M.
Here in the UK it's more or less impossible to get insurance against coastal erosion, and there is no obligation on local authorities to repair or replace roads lost to coastal erosion.  If property is lost to the sea or becomes inaccessible due to coastal erosion then it's a total financial loss.  I suspect much the same is true in the USA.

Coastal erosion here has speeded up considerably in the last two decades or so.  Some people who bought houses expecting then to be safe or at least to have several decades of use out of them have lost them much sooner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64455311
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64944384

This article (from 2019) gives a good indication of the likely human response to the problem everywhere: all shapes and sizes of denial plus some more or less informed risk-taking -

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees

There are houses on the market in that village and people are still buying them -

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/fairbourne.html?soldIn=5&page=1


Typical home insurance in the US does not include "earth movement" coverage.  But I think you can find it from specialty insurers, perhaps even your Lloyd's of London - don't they insure almost anything, for a price?

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #63 on: April 16, 2023, 08:26:40 AM »
I suppose the question then becomes: when do lenders stop issuing mortgages for properties at risk of eroding into the sea? If it can't be insured then no one will want to finance it either. Prices would take a big hit at this point.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #64 on: April 16, 2023, 08:53:14 AM »
I suppose the question then becomes: when do lenders stop issuing mortgages for properties at risk of eroding into the sea? If it can't be insured then no one will want to finance it either. Prices would take a big hit at this point.
Perhaps the nationwide mortgage subsidy system in the US prevents the sort of case-by-case discernment that could prevent loans from being taken out against properties that will be underwater or collapsed into the sea in a few years. No one individual is responsible if a mortgage is written against a property that is risky. They just get bundled into MBSs alongside less risky loans and sold to banks.

A good scam for someone stuck with such a property in a non-recourse state would be to take out a large mortgage, allow it to be foreclosed, and keep the money.

The willingness of insurers to cover skyscrapers built on sandbars and SFHs 3 meters above sea level is harder to explain. Presumably the insurance companies would have middle managers who would be held accountable for insuring a cottage on the brink of sliding down a cliff, or a resort that is one rouge wave away from being flooded. I suspect some of the internet-only companies - which have reduced headcount and accountability in an effort to improve margins - would fall prey to underwriting a lot of risky properties.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #65 on: May 10, 2023, 01:30:01 PM »
Folks are slowly starting to understand the hard reality along CA's coast: As California attempts a ‘managed retreat,’ coastal homeowners sue to stay

Expecting state and local governments to bail out wealthy homeowners, essentially subsidizing their choice to live on the coast, is ridiculous. Armoring the coast is very expensive, seawalls fail, and this has long term environmental costs with things like disappearing beaches and degraded marine habitat.

Managed retreat is a reasonable solution. Let rising sea levels take their natural course. No need to buy out super expensive homes. It should become increasingly expensive (or even impossible) to insure ocean front homes against erosion, which should make it very expensive (or impossible) to write mortgages for these properties. State and local governments should simply wait for prices to decline to a level where buying out property owners is essentially about removing structures before they become an environmental problem by falling into the sea.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #66 on: May 26, 2023, 05:14:27 PM »
More coverage on the managed retreat along the CA coastline, this time from WaPo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/05/26/california-coastline-changes-cliffs-climate-change/

Quote
Planners always knew choices would have to be made whether to keep building along the edge of the Pacific. They just didn't think it would happen so quickly.

bacchi

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #67 on: May 27, 2023, 08:35:32 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

GilesMM

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #68 on: May 27, 2023, 09:34:17 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”


Bad news because most of the people I knew who were cancelled by other insurers (or saw rates through the roof), were jumping to State Farm the last several years. 

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #69 on: May 27, 2023, 10:12:53 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.

Dicey

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #70 on: May 28, 2023, 12:08:38 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?

former player

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #71 on: May 28, 2023, 01:41:04 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #72 on: May 28, 2023, 07:33:42 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?

The state is already limiting premiums, and that's part of the problem. I have no love for for-profit insurance companies and think the state should expand their FAIR plan to be more comprehensive. But insurance is about pooling risk, and if the premiums coming in don't cover claims going out either rates increase or insurers leave. Non-coastal areas are seeing increases mostly due to increased wildfire risk.

Some things the state and local governments can do to reduce premiums:
- Make it less expensive to rebuild (mostly regulatory changes and CEQA related)
- Decrease fuel loads around/within population centers.
- More forest thinning and proscribed burns, which will result in reduced air quality at times.
- Stop building into the WUI. This makes everyone's premiums higher as it increases the difficulty of fighting fires and adds fuel where you don't want it.
- Allow much higher premiums for homes in the WUI where the risk is way higher vs. very low premiums for homes in urban areas.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2023, 07:42:15 AM by FINate »

Michael in ABQ

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #73 on: May 30, 2023, 11:14:03 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

Insurance is a highly regulated market and it's generally regulated at the state level. I don't know the specifics in California for property insurance, but I assume the state government is making it worse as they tend to do with most things. If State Farm could raise their premiums high enough to offset the risk presumably, they would do so and not give up the largest market in the country with 12% of the US population (and relatively high property values which translates to higher premiums).

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #74 on: May 30, 2023, 11:17:58 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

Insurance is a highly regulated market and it's generally regulated at the state level. I don't know the specifics in California for property insurance, but I assume the state government is making it worse as they tend to do with most things. If State Farm could raise their premiums high enough to offset the risk presumably, they would do so and not give up the largest market in the country with 12% of the US population (and relatively high property values which translates to higher premiums).

(Bolded by me.) Regulatory capture has occurred in many states. Ineffective state leadership means insurance companies lobby advise and get bills passed in their favor. I'm talking about Flo-Ree-Duh.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #75 on: May 30, 2023, 02:21:01 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

Insurance is a highly regulated market and it's generally regulated at the state level. I don't know the specifics in California for property insurance, but I assume the state government is making it worse as they tend to do with most things. If State Farm could raise their premiums high enough to offset the risk presumably, they would do so and not give up the largest market in the country with 12% of the US population (and relatively high property values which translates to higher premiums).

(Bolded by me.) Regulatory capture has occurred in many states. Ineffective state leadership means insurance companies lobby advise and get bills passed in their favor. I'm talking about Flo-Ree-Duh.
That's interesting, thanks.

Here in the UK there's a scheme to subsidize insurance on flood-prone properties through a re-insurance company funded through a levy on all home insurance companies in the UK.  There's no government funding and the scheme ends in 2039: it'll be interesting to see what happens then given that about 20% of UK houses will be potentially at risk from flooding by then (including quite a lot of London).  There is usually no insurance for coastal erosion, if you are lose your house to coastal erosion the local council might find a rental home for you, that's all.  Fire (in the wildfire sense) hasn't been much of a problem here: climate change has altered that and a dozen or so houses were lost to wildfire in last summer's drought but it's not yet at the level of needing special insurance provision.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #76 on: May 31, 2023, 03:59:25 AM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #77 on: May 31, 2023, 10:01:29 AM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.


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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #78 on: May 31, 2023, 10:16:54 AM »
Great medium post on this topic, with a focus on Florida, but applicable to all disaster-prone areas: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of

Do we accept basic capitalism principles and let insurance rates increase to the point at which the insurance companies can cover their losses and remain profitable?

Do we embrace socialism with a long-term plan for managed retreat that minimizes future losses?

Or (most likely) neither, with homeowners still living in denial of reality, lobbying their government do to whatever it takes to keep living in the same disaster-prone place AND keeping their insurance rates low?

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #79 on: May 31, 2023, 10:33:09 AM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.

I have similar questions about the accuracy of these online tools. E.g. the site indicates very high fire risk for Boise where I live and indeed, areas of the city in the foothills are very high fire danger. But then it has elevated fire risk for other ares that are very urban. As far as I can tell, this is mostly due to the tree canopy in the city (aka The City of Trees) without considering the type of vegetation. These are almost exclusively irrigated deciduous trees (elm, maple, etc). While the map on riskfactor.com is small and essentially unreadable (seriously, why no ability to zoom in?), other similar sites such as wildfirerisk.org provide more detailed maps, and it's clear from these that they rate city parks as having elevated risk -- this isn't realistic for the parks like Ann Morrison Park which is mostly lawn and irrigated trees.

2sk22

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #80 on: May 31, 2023, 02:41:50 PM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.

I have similar questions about the accuracy of these online tools. E.g. the site indicates very high fire risk for Boise where I live and indeed, areas of the city in the foothills are very high fire danger. But then it has elevated fire risk for other ares that are very urban. As far as I can tell, this is mostly due to the tree canopy in the city (aka The City of Trees) without considering the type of vegetation. These are almost exclusively irrigated deciduous trees (elm, maple, etc). While the map on riskfactor.com is small and essentially unreadable (seriously, why no ability to zoom in?), other similar sites such as wildfirerisk.org provide more detailed maps, and it's clear from these that they rate city parks as having elevated risk -- this isn't realistic for the parks like Ann Morrison Park which is mostly lawn and irrigated trees.

There are undoubtedly a lot of exceptions for specific properties. What you see is the free information. I should note that they also seem to have a paid service that costs $100 per property analyzed which may have more specific information. That might be a useful source of information before, say, putting a bid on a house.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #81 on: May 31, 2023, 04:23:08 PM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.

I have similar questions about the accuracy of these online tools. E.g. the site indicates very high fire risk for Boise where I live and indeed, areas of the city in the foothills are very high fire danger. But then it has elevated fire risk for other ares that are very urban. As far as I can tell, this is mostly due to the tree canopy in the city (aka The City of Trees) without considering the type of vegetation. These are almost exclusively irrigated deciduous trees (elm, maple, etc). While the map on riskfactor.com is small and essentially unreadable (seriously, why no ability to zoom in?), other similar sites such as wildfirerisk.org provide more detailed maps, and it's clear from these that they rate city parks as having elevated risk -- this isn't realistic for the parks like Ann Morrison Park which is mostly lawn and irrigated trees.

There are undoubtedly a lot of exceptions for specific properties. What you see is the free information. I should note that they also seem to have a paid service that costs $100 per property analyzed which may have more specific information. That might be a useful source of information before, say, putting a bid on a house.

Yes, I think the property specific info is more actionable. Is Boise at high risk of wildfire? Yes, because the city limits extend up into the foothills and range land. Yet very few people live in these areas, so it's not like this is generally applicable for residents. At a macro level it's useful for city planners and first responders, and I suppose paying $100 (or whatever) for a property specific report before making a purchase may be worthwhile if there's reason to believe the risk may be elevated.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #82 on: May 31, 2023, 06:19:32 PM »
How the deadly Tubbs Fire blitzed Santa Rosa, overwhelming residents and firefighters

"Tubbs Fire would race through canyons and over hills, cross a county line, jump a freeway, devour 550 homes and 21 businesses, and kill at least 11 people..

authorities didn’t anticipate the fire would breach Highway 101 about 2 a.m., forcing a hurried evacuation of homes on the west side of the six-lane freeway."

" https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/How-the-deadly-Tubbs-Fire-blitzed-Santa-Rosa-12268552.php

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #83 on: May 31, 2023, 07:11:06 PM »
Yep. Ember storms are a problem, especially cities near high fuel loads like dense forest/brush. This is why Boise Fire requires property owners in the foothills to remove trees and brush that add to fire risk. Out here the problem is mostly juniper trees with their high oil content. In NorCal it's chaparral (which has evolved to burn) and blue gum eucalyptus (also high oil content).

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #84 on: May 31, 2023, 10:07:01 PM »
As a wildfire professional who has specialized in home risk assessment, there are a couple of things that get overlooked by most homeowners in more urban settings.

One is what I'd call "non-wild" fuels around the home like ornamental grasses, evergreens, and non-plant items like cardboard and newspaper recycling. Basically don't store or grow anything flammable within 5 feet of the house. If your irrigation needs power to run, and they cut the power to protect firefighters, it doesn't take long for your landscape to dry out. Any plant will catch fire if it gets hot and dry enough.

The second is that once you get houses igniting in close proximity to each other, the radiant heat and possible flame contact is so intense that you get house-to-house ignitions that will overwhelm available firefighting resources. It's why it's so important to be fire resilient at a neighborhood scale, not just each house.

Embers are the main risk for homes and businesses. One of the most impactful images I use in presentations is a burned home surrounded by green landscaping. The plants closest to the house were scorched from the heat because the house was the fuel, not the plants.

Most fire or natural resource agencies will provide a free wildfire risk assessment site visit and give you a list of mitigation options. I used to do them pre-contruction also, which is really them best time to build for resilience.

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