Author Topic: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb  (Read 19710 times)

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bacchi

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #51 on: April 13, 2023, 02:31:51 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-us-canada-65264165

A "1-in-1000" flood that will probably start happening more regularly.

Quote from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/04/10/sea-level-rise-southern-us/
Scientists have documented an abnormal and dramatic surge in sea levels along the U.S. gulf and southeastern coastlines since about 2010, raising new questions about whether New Orleans, Miami, Houston and other coastal communities might be even more at risk from rising seas than once predicted.

PMJL34

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #52 on: April 13, 2023, 03:52:01 PM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2023, 03:53:54 PM by PMJL34 »

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #53 on: April 13, 2023, 05:15:02 PM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

Floods, washed out roads, numerous trees falling on houses... not sure what else to call it.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #54 on: April 13, 2023, 08:44:44 PM »


My wife's parents have a 2nd home in North Fort Myers, FL and they don't have a mortgage. Their insurance went up, so they cancelled the policy. I don't really believe property will become worthless because people can't afford the insurance. I think it's very possible that in 20-30 years the only people that can afford to live in Florida are people who don't have a mortgage. Prices might come down a little to accommodate that new trend, but I don't see a crash.


They can afford to self-insure (e.g. rebuild at their own cost if the place is demolished by a hurricane)?  Do they have personal liability (and umbrella) via another property?

PMJL34

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #55 on: April 14, 2023, 09:29:56 AM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

Floods, washed out roads, numerous trees falling on houses... not sure what else to call it.

lol come on now FInate you are pushing your agenda too hard now. We both know Pajaro is nowhere near Santa Cruz or remotely similar in it's demographics. We also both know that when it rains a little heavy or the wind is a bit stronger than usual, it's a "disaster." If it dare hails/snows (and by snow I mean for 20 seconds and less than .1 inches)/you name it, it's an emergency here and people freak out because we are used to the best weather and anything else is unacceptable.

Edit: for those unfamiliar...

Pajaro "It is located on the south bank of the Pajaro River 5 miles (8 km) northeast of its mouth,[6] at an elevation of 26 feet (7.9 m).[4] The population was 2,882 at the 2020 census, down from 3,070 in 2010...Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2,889 persons (94.1%)."

It's literally where the poorest/immigrants live. It is at sea level right next to a river. No one lives there nor wants to. Whereas Santa Cruz has some of the world's most expensive real estate and attracts millions of millions of people per year.

« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 09:39:02 AM by PMJL34 »

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #56 on: April 14, 2023, 09:55:36 AM »
If you haven't already drawn the straight line between climate change and the evolution/spread of new diseases, please pick up your pens now. Don't limit this to human infection. All species risk infection as we fuck up the planet (see little brown bats).

On a human scale, there is noplace that safe from the effects of ebola outbreaks, novel virus strains, etc. and as disease vectors, we are pretty damned good at spreading sickness all over the place - by ship, plane, train, car, and through aerosol and contact.

On the more observable side of weather events, wind and ice storms are occurring inland with higher intensity and frequency, and outpacing our municipal, provincial, and federal budgets. A 100 year storm means our budgets are prepared to fix that damage once every 100 years. With the frequency of these storms increasing, our budgets cannot keep up. Note tax increases through COVID and in the next 20 years - our already crumbling infrastructure is now seeing weather event loading beyond its original design.

Invasive species are upsetting the "normal" ecosystem as warming occurs (see "Dog Strangling Vine"). The change in temperature is affecting us already and upsetting crops and aquifers worldwide. This is a fight that is at a tipping point already, and to be honest, has been for some time.

There is no hidden to the time bomb. It is already going off, we just aren't willing to admit it.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #57 on: April 14, 2023, 10:06:02 AM »
I mean it's certainly not ideal, but it's almost an insult to label it a "disaster" in Santa Cruz when seeing the footage of what's going on in Florida.

https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

Floods, washed out roads, numerous trees falling on houses... not sure what else to call it.

lol come on now FInate you are pushing your agenda too hard now. We both know Pajaro is nowhere near Santa Cruz or remotely similar in it's demographics. We also both know that when it rains a little heavy or the wind is a bit stronger than usual, it's a "disaster." If it dare hails/snows (and by snow I mean for 20 seconds and less than .1 inches)/you name it, it's an emergency here and people freak out because we are used to the best weather and anything else is unacceptable.

Please, what agenda?

I never mentioned Pajaro, though it was in the linked article, which was about the disaster declaration for Santa Cruz and Monterey Counties. Are you not aware of the flooding that occurred in Rio Del Mar and Capitola, both of which are in Santa Cruz County? I have family in public safety in the area so I keep up to date on what's happening in the area.  And I have friends who were unable to leave their homes for a number of days due to washouts and fallen trees. Everyone is saying this is the worst they've ever seen, worse even than the storms of 82/83.

The fact is, the feds, at the request of state and local officials, have officially declared it a disaster. Some folks who lost homes in the CZU fires (also an official disaster) have, after rebuilding, lost homes again to fallen trees.


Edit: for those unfamiliar...

Pajaro "It is located on the south bank of the Pajaro River 5 miles (8 km) northeast of its mouth,[6] at an elevation of 26 feet (7.9 m).[4] The population was 2,882 at the 2020 census, down from 3,070 in 2010...Hispanic or Latino of any race were 2,889 persons (94.1%)."

It's literally where the poorest/immigrants live. It is at sea level right next to a river. No one lives there nor wants to. Whereas Santa Cruz has some of the world's most expensive real estate and attracts millions of millions of people per year.

Yes, it's a great area. But what does this have to do with whether or not the winter storms are a disaster? As a result of the storms, the City of Santa Cruz is currently debating what to do about the extensive damage along Westcliff Dr, which is some of the most expensive real estate in the county. There's pretty broad agreement that the effects of climate change hit faster than anyone expected. Does the city "harden" the this stretch of coastline to protect multi-million dollar homes, which is a losing long-term battle with serious unintended consequences (such as negatively impacting the world-class surfing in that area). Or do they go with managed retreat that has serious financial implications for property owners. There are no good options. None of this is an attack on Santa Cruz, just the cold hard facts of climate change and sea level rise.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2023, 10:28:31 AM by FINate »

PMJL34

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #58 on: April 15, 2023, 07:40:53 PM »
https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

FInate, not to get into a back and forth, but did you read the article you shared above? It's 100% about the flooding in Parajo, CA.

You then added two more links.

For the first link, the news anchor flat out stated that "Rio Del Mar floods nearly every year" and that no houses were damaged due to the flood.

The second link regarding Capitola Wharf: "Capitola City Manager Jamie Goldstein said last week that the initial estimate of public damages is more than $2.6 million, including the Capitola Wharf....The goal is to have these as the (Federal Emergency Management Agency) eligible reimbursement projects,” said Goldstein." We both know that the area is very wealthy and resourceful. Good for them to get 2.6 million from the federal government.

I don't know the region as well as you do, but I still feel confident saying it's a different ball game compared to the Fort Lauderdale flood that was caused by "more than 25 inches of rain in six to eight hours." That's insane! It closed the international airport, 900+ emergency calls, extensive damage, and more predicted as it is the start of their rainy season.

But yeah, I'm done comparing "natural disasters" as they all suck.
 


FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #59 on: April 15, 2023, 08:58:19 PM »
https://www.santacruzsentinel.com/2023/04/04/biden-approves-disaster-declaration-for-monterey-santa-cruz-counties/

FInate, not to get into a back and forth, but did you read the article you shared above? It's 100% about the flooding in Parajo, CA.

Yes, of course I read the article. It begins with (emphasis added):

Quote
On Monday night, President Joe Biden approved a Presidential Major Disaster Declaration for seven California counties, including Monterey and Santa Cruz, allowing for federal funding to provide relief for flooding and other extreme weather conditions that have taken place since mid-February.

I linked that article to cite my source for Santa Cruz being part of the federal disaster designation (whereas Pajaro is entirely in Monterey Country).

You then added two more links.

For the first link, the news anchor flat out stated that "Rio Del Mar floods nearly every year" and that no houses were damaged due to the flood.

The second link regarding Capitola Wharf: "Capitola City Manager Jamie Goldstein said last week that the initial estimate of public damages is more than $2.6 million, including the Capitola Wharf....The goal is to have these as the (Federal Emergency Management Agency) eligible reimbursement projects,” said Goldstein." We both know that the area is very wealthy and resourceful. Good for them to get 2.6 million from the federal government.

I don't know the region as well as you do, but I still feel confident saying it's a different ball game compared to the Fort Lauderdale flood that was caused by "more than 25 inches of rain in six to eight hours." That's insane! It closed the international airport, 900+ emergency calls, extensive damage, and more predicted as it is the start of their rainy season.

But yeah, I'm done comparing "natural disasters" as they all suck.
 

Flooding in the Rio Del Mar flats isn't super uncommon, but the level of flooding this year was different. Homes most certainly were damaged and businesses are still shut as they clean up and repair. Here's a good local source: https://archive.is/VbhbK You apparently don't really know what's going on there, so maybe don't comment on it.

It should also be noted that the entire population of Santa Cruz County is around 300k, whereas the Fort Lauderdale metro area it's over 6 million. In other words Ft Lauderdale is 20x larger, so of course the numbers there are going to be a lot larger. That doesn't make the smaller numbers in Santa Cruz less devastating. 

And yes, there's no need to make this a pissing match... which is why I'm perplexed by your taking issue with this in the first place.  We have loved ones impacted by the disaster there. They've lost property, businesses, and so on, there's no need or reason to minimize it or compare it to other places.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2023, 09:13:00 PM by FINate »

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #60 on: April 15, 2023, 09:37:55 PM »
Getting this thread back on topic...

Most reasonable people have known for years that low lying coastal areas were in danger of sea level rise from a warming climate. So the damage in such areas in Santa Cruz Country (e.g. the Rio Del Mar flats) wasn't terribly surprising. The Tsunami Inundation Map for Santa Cruz County is a pretty good predictor for specific areas that will become increasingly problematic. The only thing surprising maybe is that the results of climate change hit sooner than expected as the result of king tides combined with a storm surge and high surf.

What was surprising was the CZU fire and how it burned through areas that were assumed to be low fire risk. Well, apparently a warmer and dryer climate means the redwood forests in this area aren't as safe as once believed. This new reality has already started to trickle down to homeowners, we know folks who are now paying 2-3x in insurance premiums, and many who have been forced onto the state run FAIR plan. Between fire, slides, and tree damage, life's been hard in the mountains for many folks.

Additionally, it's now apparent that elevation alone isn't sufficient protection from sea level rise, as the recent storms eroded coastal bluffs much faster than anyone anticipated. This means ocean front property, even if relatively high above sea level, is at higher risk than expected. This will soon be reflected in insurance rates. I don't think this means ocean front property will generally get super cheap, as there will always be those with the means and willingness to risk it for the views. But I do think this will eventually put downward pressure on prices as only those who can self insure and absorb a potential loss long term will be willing to purchase such properties. So maybe a $4M house becomes $3M.

In no way does this mean Santa Cruz as a whole is doomed, or any other such nonsense. But I would avoid buying a house in the woods, or in a flood zone, or right on the coast.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #61 on: April 16, 2023, 02:28:18 AM »
Getting this thread back on topic...


Additionally, it's now apparent that elevation alone isn't sufficient protection from sea level rise, as the recent storms eroded coastal bluffs much faster than anyone anticipated. This means ocean front property, even if relatively high above sea level, is at higher risk than expected. This will soon be reflected in insurance rates. I don't think this means ocean front property will generally get super cheap, as there will always be those with the means and willingness to risk it for the views. But I do think this will eventually put downward pressure on prices as only those who can self insure and absorb a potential loss long term will be willing to purchase such properties. So maybe a $4M house becomes $3M.
Here in the UK it's more or less impossible to get insurance against coastal erosion, and there is no obligation on local authorities to repair or replace roads lost to coastal erosion.  If property is lost to the sea or becomes inaccessible due to coastal erosion then it's a total financial loss.  I suspect much the same is true in the USA.

Coastal erosion here has speeded up considerably in the last two decades or so.  Some people who bought houses expecting then to be safe or at least to have several decades of use out of them have lost them much sooner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64455311
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64944384

This article (from 2019) gives a good indication of the likely human response to the problem everywhere: all shapes and sizes of denial plus some more or less informed risk-taking -

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees

There are houses on the market in that village and people are still buying them -

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/fairbourne.html?soldIn=5&page=1


GilesMM

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #62 on: April 16, 2023, 07:40:10 AM »
Getting this thread back on topic...


Additionally, it's now apparent that elevation alone isn't sufficient protection from sea level rise, as the recent storms eroded coastal bluffs much faster than anyone anticipated. This means ocean front property, even if relatively high above sea level, is at higher risk than expected. This will soon be reflected in insurance rates. I don't think this means ocean front property will generally get super cheap, as there will always be those with the means and willingness to risk it for the views. But I do think this will eventually put downward pressure on prices as only those who can self insure and absorb a potential loss long term will be willing to purchase such properties. So maybe a $4M house becomes $3M.
Here in the UK it's more or less impossible to get insurance against coastal erosion, and there is no obligation on local authorities to repair or replace roads lost to coastal erosion.  If property is lost to the sea or becomes inaccessible due to coastal erosion then it's a total financial loss.  I suspect much the same is true in the USA.

Coastal erosion here has speeded up considerably in the last two decades or so.  Some people who bought houses expecting then to be safe or at least to have several decades of use out of them have lost them much sooner.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64455311
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-64944384

This article (from 2019) gives a good indication of the likely human response to the problem everywhere: all shapes and sizes of denial plus some more or less informed risk-taking -

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/18/this-is-a-wake-up-call-the-villagers-who-could-be-britains-first-climate-refugees

There are houses on the market in that village and people are still buying them -

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/fairbourne.html?soldIn=5&page=1


Typical home insurance in the US does not include "earth movement" coverage.  But I think you can find it from specialty insurers, perhaps even your Lloyd's of London - don't they insure almost anything, for a price?

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #63 on: April 16, 2023, 08:26:40 AM »
I suppose the question then becomes: when do lenders stop issuing mortgages for properties at risk of eroding into the sea? If it can't be insured then no one will want to finance it either. Prices would take a big hit at this point.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #64 on: April 16, 2023, 08:53:14 AM »
I suppose the question then becomes: when do lenders stop issuing mortgages for properties at risk of eroding into the sea? If it can't be insured then no one will want to finance it either. Prices would take a big hit at this point.
Perhaps the nationwide mortgage subsidy system in the US prevents the sort of case-by-case discernment that could prevent loans from being taken out against properties that will be underwater or collapsed into the sea in a few years. No one individual is responsible if a mortgage is written against a property that is risky. They just get bundled into MBSs alongside less risky loans and sold to banks.

A good scam for someone stuck with such a property in a non-recourse state would be to take out a large mortgage, allow it to be foreclosed, and keep the money.

The willingness of insurers to cover skyscrapers built on sandbars and SFHs 3 meters above sea level is harder to explain. Presumably the insurance companies would have middle managers who would be held accountable for insuring a cottage on the brink of sliding down a cliff, or a resort that is one rouge wave away from being flooded. I suspect some of the internet-only companies - which have reduced headcount and accountability in an effort to improve margins - would fall prey to underwriting a lot of risky properties.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #65 on: May 10, 2023, 01:30:01 PM »
Folks are slowly starting to understand the hard reality along CA's coast: As California attempts a ‘managed retreat,’ coastal homeowners sue to stay

Expecting state and local governments to bail out wealthy homeowners, essentially subsidizing their choice to live on the coast, is ridiculous. Armoring the coast is very expensive, seawalls fail, and this has long term environmental costs with things like disappearing beaches and degraded marine habitat.

Managed retreat is a reasonable solution. Let rising sea levels take their natural course. No need to buy out super expensive homes. It should become increasingly expensive (or even impossible) to insure ocean front homes against erosion, which should make it very expensive (or impossible) to write mortgages for these properties. State and local governments should simply wait for prices to decline to a level where buying out property owners is essentially about removing structures before they become an environmental problem by falling into the sea.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #66 on: May 26, 2023, 05:14:27 PM »
More coverage on the managed retreat along the CA coastline, this time from WaPo: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/05/26/california-coastline-changes-cliffs-climate-change/

Quote
Planners always knew choices would have to be made whether to keep building along the edge of the Pacific. They just didn't think it would happen so quickly.

bacchi

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #67 on: May 27, 2023, 08:35:32 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

GilesMM

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #68 on: May 27, 2023, 09:34:17 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”


Bad news because most of the people I knew who were cancelled by other insurers (or saw rates through the roof), were jumping to State Farm the last several years. 

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #69 on: May 27, 2023, 10:12:53 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #70 on: May 28, 2023, 12:08:38 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #71 on: May 28, 2023, 01:41:04 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #72 on: May 28, 2023, 07:33:42 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?

The state is already limiting premiums, and that's part of the problem. I have no love for for-profit insurance companies and think the state should expand their FAIR plan to be more comprehensive. But insurance is about pooling risk, and if the premiums coming in don't cover claims going out either rates increase or insurers leave. Non-coastal areas are seeing increases mostly due to increased wildfire risk.

Some things the state and local governments can do to reduce premiums:
- Make it less expensive to rebuild (mostly regulatory changes and CEQA related)
- Decrease fuel loads around/within population centers.
- More forest thinning and proscribed burns, which will result in reduced air quality at times.
- Stop building into the WUI. This makes everyone's premiums higher as it increases the difficulty of fighting fires and adds fuel where you don't want it.
- Allow much higher premiums for homes in the WUI where the risk is way higher vs. very low premiums for homes in urban areas.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2023, 07:42:15 AM by FINate »

Michael in ABQ

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #73 on: May 30, 2023, 11:14:03 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

Insurance is a highly regulated market and it's generally regulated at the state level. I don't know the specifics in California for property insurance, but I assume the state government is making it worse as they tend to do with most things. If State Farm could raise their premiums high enough to offset the risk presumably, they would do so and not give up the largest market in the country with 12% of the US population (and relatively high property values which translates to higher premiums).

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #74 on: May 30, 2023, 11:17:58 AM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

Insurance is a highly regulated market and it's generally regulated at the state level. I don't know the specifics in California for property insurance, but I assume the state government is making it worse as they tend to do with most things. If State Farm could raise their premiums high enough to offset the risk presumably, they would do so and not give up the largest market in the country with 12% of the US population (and relatively high property values which translates to higher premiums).

(Bolded by me.) Regulatory capture has occurred in many states. Ineffective state leadership means insurance companies lobby advise and get bills passed in their favor. I'm talking about Flo-Ree-Duh.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #75 on: May 30, 2023, 02:21:01 PM »
State Farm will no longer issue new property policies in California. They're the state's largest property insurer.

Quote from: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-05-27/state-farm-is-no-longer-accepting-property-insurance-applications-in-california
“State Farm General Insurance Company made this decision due to historic increases in construction costs outpacing inflation, rapidly growing catastrophe exposure and a challenging reinsurance market.”

The state needs to allow premiums to increase to reflect risk levels or more insurers will depart.
Our homeowners' policies on our four homes have about doubled in the last five years. We've had no claims and they're not coastal. What exactly is the state doing to limit premiums?
Shouldn't the question be: what is the State doing to limit risk?  What is it doing to prevent development on eroding coasts and flood plains?  What is it doing to mitigate the risk of wildfire?

Is there any evidence of insurance companies making excessive profits in a rigged market?  If not, why should the State limit premiums?

I thought the USA was the home of the free market.

Insurance is a highly regulated market and it's generally regulated at the state level. I don't know the specifics in California for property insurance, but I assume the state government is making it worse as they tend to do with most things. If State Farm could raise their premiums high enough to offset the risk presumably, they would do so and not give up the largest market in the country with 12% of the US population (and relatively high property values which translates to higher premiums).

(Bolded by me.) Regulatory capture has occurred in many states. Ineffective state leadership means insurance companies lobby advise and get bills passed in their favor. I'm talking about Flo-Ree-Duh.
That's interesting, thanks.

Here in the UK there's a scheme to subsidize insurance on flood-prone properties through a re-insurance company funded through a levy on all home insurance companies in the UK.  There's no government funding and the scheme ends in 2039: it'll be interesting to see what happens then given that about 20% of UK houses will be potentially at risk from flooding by then (including quite a lot of London).  There is usually no insurance for coastal erosion, if you are lose your house to coastal erosion the local council might find a rental home for you, that's all.  Fire (in the wildfire sense) hasn't been much of a problem here: climate change has altered that and a dozen or so houses were lost to wildfire in last summer's drought but it's not yet at the level of needing special insurance provision.

2sk22

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #76 on: May 31, 2023, 03:59:25 AM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #77 on: May 31, 2023, 10:01:29 AM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.


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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #78 on: May 31, 2023, 10:16:54 AM »
Great medium post on this topic, with a focus on Florida, but applicable to all disaster-prone areas: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of

Do we accept basic capitalism principles and let insurance rates increase to the point at which the insurance companies can cover their losses and remain profitable?

Do we embrace socialism with a long-term plan for managed retreat that minimizes future losses?

Or (most likely) neither, with homeowners still living in denial of reality, lobbying their government do to whatever it takes to keep living in the same disaster-prone place AND keeping their insurance rates low?

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #79 on: May 31, 2023, 10:33:09 AM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.

I have similar questions about the accuracy of these online tools. E.g. the site indicates very high fire risk for Boise where I live and indeed, areas of the city in the foothills are very high fire danger. But then it has elevated fire risk for other ares that are very urban. As far as I can tell, this is mostly due to the tree canopy in the city (aka The City of Trees) without considering the type of vegetation. These are almost exclusively irrigated deciduous trees (elm, maple, etc). While the map on riskfactor.com is small and essentially unreadable (seriously, why no ability to zoom in?), other similar sites such as wildfirerisk.org provide more detailed maps, and it's clear from these that they rate city parks as having elevated risk -- this isn't realistic for the parks like Ann Morrison Park which is mostly lawn and irrigated trees.

2sk22

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #80 on: May 31, 2023, 02:41:50 PM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.

I have similar questions about the accuracy of these online tools. E.g. the site indicates very high fire risk for Boise where I live and indeed, areas of the city in the foothills are very high fire danger. But then it has elevated fire risk for other ares that are very urban. As far as I can tell, this is mostly due to the tree canopy in the city (aka The City of Trees) without considering the type of vegetation. These are almost exclusively irrigated deciduous trees (elm, maple, etc). While the map on riskfactor.com is small and essentially unreadable (seriously, why no ability to zoom in?), other similar sites such as wildfirerisk.org provide more detailed maps, and it's clear from these that they rate city parks as having elevated risk -- this isn't realistic for the parks like Ann Morrison Park which is mostly lawn and irrigated trees.

There are undoubtedly a lot of exceptions for specific properties. What you see is the free information. I should note that they also seem to have a paid service that costs $100 per property analyzed which may have more specific information. That might be a useful source of information before, say, putting a bid on a house.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #81 on: May 31, 2023, 04:23:08 PM »
This is a useful website with some tools to get a better understanding of climate risks - which are more than just flooding: https://riskfactor.com
They also offer analysis of heat, wind and fire which are also going to change.

Interesting tool. I wonder does it take into effect current building processes? For instance a beach island off of South Carolina rightly has extreme flood risk, as a single hurricane will bring 1-10 feet of water inland. That being said almost all of the houses are 10 feet off the ground.

So while 5 feet of water would be problematic to some buildings (and horrible for roads/infrastructure etc), I think a fair amount would be unaffected.

I have similar questions about the accuracy of these online tools. E.g. the site indicates very high fire risk for Boise where I live and indeed, areas of the city in the foothills are very high fire danger. But then it has elevated fire risk for other ares that are very urban. As far as I can tell, this is mostly due to the tree canopy in the city (aka The City of Trees) without considering the type of vegetation. These are almost exclusively irrigated deciduous trees (elm, maple, etc). While the map on riskfactor.com is small and essentially unreadable (seriously, why no ability to zoom in?), other similar sites such as wildfirerisk.org provide more detailed maps, and it's clear from these that they rate city parks as having elevated risk -- this isn't realistic for the parks like Ann Morrison Park which is mostly lawn and irrigated trees.

There are undoubtedly a lot of exceptions for specific properties. What you see is the free information. I should note that they also seem to have a paid service that costs $100 per property analyzed which may have more specific information. That might be a useful source of information before, say, putting a bid on a house.

Yes, I think the property specific info is more actionable. Is Boise at high risk of wildfire? Yes, because the city limits extend up into the foothills and range land. Yet very few people live in these areas, so it's not like this is generally applicable for residents. At a macro level it's useful for city planners and first responders, and I suppose paying $100 (or whatever) for a property specific report before making a purchase may be worthwhile if there's reason to believe the risk may be elevated.

dang1

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #82 on: May 31, 2023, 06:19:32 PM »
How the deadly Tubbs Fire blitzed Santa Rosa, overwhelming residents and firefighters

"Tubbs Fire would race through canyons and over hills, cross a county line, jump a freeway, devour 550 homes and 21 businesses, and kill at least 11 people..

authorities didn’t anticipate the fire would breach Highway 101 about 2 a.m., forcing a hurried evacuation of homes on the west side of the six-lane freeway."

" https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/How-the-deadly-Tubbs-Fire-blitzed-Santa-Rosa-12268552.php

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #83 on: May 31, 2023, 07:11:06 PM »
Yep. Ember storms are a problem, especially cities near high fuel loads like dense forest/brush. This is why Boise Fire requires property owners in the foothills to remove trees and brush that add to fire risk. Out here the problem is mostly juniper trees with their high oil content. In NorCal it's chaparral (which has evolved to burn) and blue gum eucalyptus (also high oil content).

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #84 on: May 31, 2023, 10:07:01 PM »
As a wildfire professional who has specialized in home risk assessment, there are a couple of things that get overlooked by most homeowners in more urban settings.

One is what I'd call "non-wild" fuels around the home like ornamental grasses, evergreens, and non-plant items like cardboard and newspaper recycling. Basically don't store or grow anything flammable within 5 feet of the house. If your irrigation needs power to run, and they cut the power to protect firefighters, it doesn't take long for your landscape to dry out. Any plant will catch fire if it gets hot and dry enough.

The second is that once you get houses igniting in close proximity to each other, the radiant heat and possible flame contact is so intense that you get house-to-house ignitions that will overwhelm available firefighting resources. It's why it's so important to be fire resilient at a neighborhood scale, not just each house.

Embers are the main risk for homes and businesses. One of the most impactful images I use in presentations is a burned home surrounded by green landscaping. The plants closest to the house were scorched from the heat because the house was the fuel, not the plants.

Most fire or natural resource agencies will provide a free wildfire risk assessment site visit and give you a list of mitigation options. I used to do them pre-contruction also, which is really them best time to build for resilience.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #85 on: June 01, 2023, 08:33:33 AM »
One is what I'd call "non-wild" fuels around the home like ornamental grasses, evergreens, and non-plant items like cardboard and newspaper recycling. Basically don't store or grow anything flammable within 5 feet of the house. If your irrigation needs power to run, and they cut the power to protect firefighters, it doesn't take long for your landscape to dry out. Any plant will catch fire if it gets hot and dry enough.

The second is that once you get houses igniting in close proximity to each other, the radiant heat and possible flame contact is so intense that you get house-to-house ignitions that will overwhelm available firefighting resources. It's why it's so important to be fire resilient at a neighborhood scale, not just each house.

Several months ago someone on Nextdoor was complaining about being cited for having too much wood debris on their property. People politely explained that it's not just unsightly but also a fire danger, especially if this becomes widespread throughout the neighborhood. Per their profile they had moved here from California and should already know this. But they weren't having it and were convinced it was a gross injustice and a violation of their "rights." Freedom doesn't mean free to do whatever you want, and I'm thankful Boise is enforcing city regulations... don't live in the city if you don't want to abide by the rules.

bacchi

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #86 on: June 01, 2023, 04:18:49 PM »
Great medium post on this topic, with a focus on Florida, but applicable to all disaster-prone areas: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of

Do we accept basic capitalism principles and let insurance rates increase to the point at which the insurance companies can cover their losses and remain profitable?

Do we embrace socialism with a long-term plan for managed retreat that minimizes future losses?

Or (most likely) neither, with homeowners still living in denial of reality, lobbying their government do to whatever it takes to keep living in the same disaster-prone place AND keeping their insurance rates low?

Florida is following 3). The government backstop is increasing rates, but not near enough, and there's no strategy -- as far as I can tell -- to stop building in stupid places.

Citizens, the FL government insurer, asked for a 14% increase (they're limited to 12%/yr, not including fees).

Quote from: https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2023/03/31/714518.htm
Citizens Property Insurance Corporation’s board of governors this week voted to file for a 14.2% average increase for personal lines and a 12.3% spike for commercial policies.
[...]
But the rate hikes are far below what is actuarially indicated if Citizens had no rate caps: Officials noted that increases of almost 58% for personal lines and almost 69% for commercial policies are indicated, according to information provided to the board of governors.

Holy. Shit.

As the blog mentions, the burden when Citizens collapses will transfer to the federal government (flooding insurance is already handled by the feds). We'll all pay for rebuilding a house the same way in the same place.

Quote from: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of
[yielding] a political crisis that will occur when all of the people living in other states finally say, “Why the fuck is so much of our federal budget going to protect these idiots’ beach houses?”

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #87 on: June 02, 2023, 07:04:25 AM »
Quote from: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of
[yielding] a political crisis that will occur when all of the people living in other states finally say, “Why the fuck is so much of our federal budget going to protect these idiots’ beach houses?”
Florida used to be able to get anything they wanted from the federal government when they were a swing state, but lately they've been deep red. If they were smarter, Democrats might be inclined to protect social security and Medicaid rather than subsidizing beach houses. But of course that sentence hinges on an if.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #88 on: June 02, 2023, 12:21:30 PM »
New information (to me) about California's insurance market. From https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/insurance-allstate-fires-18130622.php:

Quote
Insurers could also be reducing their market share to avoid the need to compensate for losses from the FAIR Plan, which requires companies as a cost of doing business in the state to cover losses proportional to their market share in the state.

I did not know that insurers were required to backstop losses in the FAIR plan.

The FAIR plain is the state run fire insurer of last resort that many homeowners in high-risk areas are getting forced into. As big insurers leave the market this puts more of the loss compensation on smaller players, which may trigger a feedback loop of insurers leaving/limiting exposure to CA.
« Last Edit: June 02, 2023, 12:25:30 PM by FINate »

2sk22

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #89 on: June 04, 2023, 03:56:03 AM »
Quote from: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of
[yielding] a political crisis that will occur when all of the people living in other states finally say, “Why the fuck is so much of our federal budget going to protect these idiots’ beach houses?”
Florida used to be able to get anything they wanted from the federal government when they were a swing state, but lately they've been deep red. If they were smarter, Democrats might be inclined to protect social security and Medicaid rather than subsidizing beach houses. But of course that sentence hinges on an if.

It's not just Florida, although they are the worst off. There are billions of dollars of properties all along the east coast that are going to be affected even by a small rise in sea levels, well within our lifetimes. An acquaintance was just bragging about a multi-million dollar property he bought on Kiawah Island in South Carolina. I looked up the risk factor and, needless to say, it's extreme for flooding. Further up north, they have just finished rebuilding hoses destroyed by hurricane Sandy in NJ. In fact, there are a lot of expensive homes built on barrier islands off the NJ/DE/MD coast

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #90 on: June 04, 2023, 10:08:34 AM »
Quote from: https://www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/insurance-politics-at-the-end-of
[yielding] a political crisis that will occur when all of the people living in other states finally say, “Why the fuck is so much of our federal budget going to protect these idiots’ beach houses?”
Florida used to be able to get anything they wanted from the federal government when they were a swing state, but lately they've been deep red. If they were smarter, Democrats might be inclined to protect social security and Medicaid rather than subsidizing beach houses. But of course that sentence hinges on an if.

It's not just Florida, although they are the worst off. There are billions of dollars of properties all along the east coast that are going to be affected even by a small rise in sea levels, well within our lifetimes. An acquaintance was just bragging about a multi-million dollar property he bought on Kiawah Island in South Carolina. I looked up the risk factor and, needless to say, it's extreme for flooding. Further up north, they have just finished rebuilding hoses destroyed by hurricane Sandy in NJ. In fact, there are a lot of expensive homes built on barrier islands off the NJ/DE/MD coast

Yep, climate change will impact everyone, doesn't matter if the state is red or blue or whatever. I keep bringing up California not to pick on it, but rather because it's where I was born and raised and so I know a little bit about what's going on there. It's deep blue, yet has it's own self inflicted climate problems due to poor urban planning that has resulted in extreme fire risk. In an attempt to stop growth, homeowners put very strict policies in place that prevented infill and urban density. The goal was to preserve a peculiar mid-twentieth century vision of low-density beach homes -- an antiquated aesthetic that confuses personal views of nature with environmentalism. So  growth spilled over into non-urban areas and now around 25% of the state lives in the WUI, of which around 1.4 million homes are at the highest risk. Even worse, the west has spent the past 100+ years in an ill fated attempt to suppress all wildfire, whereas pre white colonists much of the west burned annually.... it's a fire adapted landscape. Millions of people living in the WUI with high accumulation of fuel plus a drying and warming climate... it's no wonder insurers are pulling back in California.
« Last Edit: June 04, 2023, 10:10:46 AM by FINate »

dang1

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #91 on: June 04, 2023, 11:12:27 AM »
"Indigenous people native to Yosemite and other parts of the world for millennia have used fire to promote healthy forests. Today, the wisdom of that approach is seen as one of the keys to unraveling the deadly cycle of California wildfires."

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/how-indigenous-practice-good-fire-can-help-our-forests-thrive

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #92 on: June 04, 2023, 08:07:09 PM »
I live in inland California in what has become a serious fire zone. In the past decade I've evacuated three times - once in an "abundance of caution" situation should the winds change, and twice have loaded kids, pets, and valuables into the car and sped off into a smoky dawn. I have an uneasy history (for unrelated claims) with State Farm, yet they continue to insure my primary residence and business property. I've been made aware that there's no full replacement value that would be paid out should my house burn to the ground yet still uneasily continue as an insured because an unknown insurer would likely not be much better.

2sk22

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #93 on: June 05, 2023, 06:27:28 AM »
Relevant article about progressively increasing wildfire risk in Texas exacerbated by urban sprawl.

Quote
Any land that isn’t explicitly protected is “potentially fair game,” Travis County Commissioner Ann Howard told Austin Monthly last year. In Georgetown, for example, wildfire doesn’t factor into planning decisions, and the city doesn’t track how many buildings are at risk, according to the town’s fire marshal, Jason Fryer. “The wildfire risk is something that we can only help out with the individual homeowner, or their homeowner’s association,” he said.

As climate change alters weather patterns, and more homes are built in harm’s way by the region’s real estate boom, experts fear that Texas-style development is setting itself up for a wildfire disaster.

“We continue to believe, as a society, that if we just treat vegetation, or wildland forests and reduce all that fuel, we can continue to build homes where we want and how we want, regardless of the risk,” said Kimiko Barrett, Wildfire Research & Policy Lead at the nonprofit Headwaters Economics. “At some point, we’re going to have to start addressing the built environment, because we continue to put homes in harm's way.”

Bregenzer specifically worries about a fire near a high-density area in a community that hasn’t done fire mitigation work, where the majority of homeowners and renters aren’t familiar with the threat; that’s when a wildfire is going to “impact that community in a severe way.”

In 2016, Texas A&M did an analysis of Hays, Comal, Bexar, and Travis counties — the latter which contains Austin — which lie within the I-35 corridor, and found 1.1 million people in those counties, 39% of the total population, live in the wildland-urban interface, or WUI, a higher-risk region where development runs up against natural areas. Within that subset, 423,000 are living in high-density areas.


FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #95 on: June 18, 2023, 08:42:57 AM »
More coverage on this topic. Insurers in California and Florida raising premiums and pulling out: Homeowners in states hobbled by extreme weather are running out of options to protect their homes

hooplady

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #96 on: June 18, 2023, 04:54:24 PM »
It is indeed getting pretty crazy in Florida. I saw a post from one neighbor who stated their premium had gone from $1450 to over $12,000 in eleven years. There was some discussion among the more mustachian types of just getting liability insurance but most folks can't do that since they have a mortgage.


des999

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #97 on: June 19, 2023, 04:11:55 PM »
curious, what city?  also is this within floodzones/close to the coast?

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #98 on: June 19, 2023, 08:24:05 PM »
As is the way in our society, companies, not governments, will dictate where one can reasonably live.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #99 on: June 19, 2023, 09:08:05 PM »
"Indigenous people native to Yosemite and other parts of the world for millennia have used fire to promote healthy forests. Today, the wisdom of that approach is seen as one of the keys to unraveling the deadly cycle of California wildfires."

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/how-indigenous-practice-good-fire-can-help-our-forests-thrive

We definitely could learn something valuable from this approach. We need to have a better approach as some summers it’s awful on the west coast.