Author Topic: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb  (Read 19672 times)

FINate

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America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« on: February 20, 2023, 08:38:37 PM »
Interesting article today in The Atlantic: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb

This brings up something I've observed and wondered about for several years now. The most expensive housing is along the coast, or often large properties in densely wooded forest. These are the most at risk to climate change, and yet people are still attracted to these areas. I see it on this forum, but also in other places online and among friends and family.

The article focuses on flood risk in low-lying areas, which is valid. Though California recently got another glimpse of the future with storms that eroded ocean cliffs much faster than anyone anticipated, which is now threatening infrastructure and homes that were assumed to be safe for at least a few more decades.

The big one for me is wildfire risk. I've seen big wildfires up close and it's both awe inspiring and terrifying. I'm shocked that people still want to buy/build homes in the forest and/or WUI, especially in the arid west. High insurance premiums, the very high likelihood of losing everything followed by a stressful and lengthy rebuild, risk of injury or death... just a bad idea all around. And yet people still want that stick frame home in the path of a future inferno.

I'm left wondering how many climate related natural disasters we have to live through before things change.

chemistk

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #1 on: February 21, 2023, 05:56:03 AM »
I'm left wondering how many climate related natural disasters we have to live through before things change.

Most of them. Most people think on shorter timelines than even a year. It's also way too easy for folks to believe that we can engineer some solution to mitigate the risks, irrespective of the costs.

I think part of the issue is that we keep framing these events like a "100 year flood" or a "Once in a generation blizzard" or a "50 year wildfire". It then becomes associated with "ah, that's not going to happen in my lifetime, so I'm good".

The other part is that we, as individuals, want so desperately to return to homeostasis. We're hardwired (on a population level) to loathe rapid change, probably for the biological better. I think the bellwether for when the majority of people internalize the effects of climate change is going to be when we collectively lose something to climate change that we will never get back.

Will that happen? Could we be so utterly devastated that people from Florida to NYC to Alaska will all stop and say "oh shit, it's all real" beyond an earthquake (ironically the one not-climate related disaster) in SoCal that kills hundreds of thousands and wipes companies and services off the map. Either that or a solar flare that wipes out the power grid to half the world.

I personally don't think so. I think it's going to be a slow and painful realization, constant mega storms and "once in a generation" weather events coupled with the loss of skiable winter in the Rockies.

uniwelder

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #2 on: February 21, 2023, 06:37:37 AM »
I think it's going to be a slow and painful realization, constant mega storms and "once in a generation" weather events coupled with the loss of skiable winter in the Rockies.

Nothing like loss of skiable winter in the Rockies to get the attention of rich folks.

I couldn't read further than the first two paragraphs of the article due to a paywall.  I think the big driver will be the cost or lack of availability of home insurance.  Its already starting in California and Florida, where many insurance companies have pulled out of the market.  All that will be left are the super wealthy that self insure.

There's a podcast series I listened to that is focused entirely on climate change, called "How We Survive".  https://www.marketplace.org/shows/how-we-survive/  Its produced by the people of MarketPlace on NPR.  This season was mostly about Miami-- home insurance, low income people on the outskirts, the crazy real estate market, whether anyone actually cares about climate change among those buying.  The last point I found quite interesting--- the wealthy buyers have enough money to not care whether their home would exist in 20-30 years.  Some people in this forum have expressed the same sentiment while contemplating their potential beach homes.

chemistk

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #3 on: February 21, 2023, 07:53:59 AM »
I think the big driver will be the cost or lack of availability of home insurance.  Its already starting in California and Florida, where many insurance companies have pulled out of the market.  All that will be left are the super wealthy that self insure.

I think the lack of available/affordable insurance will weaken the public desire to have homes in places like this, but the think that's actually going to be the big driver/wakeup call is when lenders stop writing mortgages for homes in these areas. All it takes is a few bigger lenders to decide that having a lien on property that might not actually even be able to be reclaimed if it turns into swampland to get people to realize that it's not actually a good idea to live in those places.

But because the costs of such changes are borne by the most vulnerable in society, it's going to be a shitty, painful, and completely unjust transition.

uniwelder

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #4 on: February 21, 2023, 08:01:12 AM »
I think the big driver will be the cost or lack of availability of home insurance.  Its already starting in California and Florida, where many insurance companies have pulled out of the market.  All that will be left are the super wealthy that self insure.

I think the lack of available/affordable insurance will weaken the public desire to have homes in places like this, but the think that's actually going to be the big driver/wakeup call is when lenders stop writing mortgages for homes in these areas. All it takes is a few bigger lenders to decide that having a lien on property that might not actually even be able to be reclaimed if it turns into swampland to get people to realize that it's not actually a good idea to live in those places.

But because the costs of such changes are borne by the most vulnerable in society, it's going to be a shitty, painful, and completely unjust transition.

I guess they're related-- insurance and mortgages.  You can't get a mortgage on a house unless it has insurance.  I suppose mortgage lenders might decide to drop clients independently too.

Indio

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #5 on: February 21, 2023, 08:07:27 AM »
Was blocked at the paywall but found this article by the same author so assuming it's another extract from his book.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/floridas-climate-exodus-already-begun-110000919.html

The threat isn't just coastal it's also to anyone who lives along or near an inland body of water or river. Homes that were built 50+ years ago and have been passed down to the next generation are being flooded along riverfronts. Homes that never flooded are now being heavily damaged or destroyed. This happened recently where I live and some people can't afford flood insurance because it's $16k+ a year. When the home is destroyed, insurance will cover the rebuilding and this can lead to homeowners elevating the home 2 stories to avoid being trapped. When the home isn't considered destroyed, it is renovated and the residents cross their fingers till the next one.

The biggest issue happening here is that emergency rescue services can't reach people during one of these events and there was not indication that they needed to evacuate. Additionally, these storms often leave sewage remnants from flooded wastewater plants and sewage line backups into homes.

I believe the fallout from all of this is that we will see 500 yr storms being reclassified as 100yr events, 100 yr will become 50 or 25 year events and we will need another classification level to hurricanes like cat6.

Archipelago

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #6 on: February 21, 2023, 08:21:06 AM »
Here's the article with the paywall removed.

https://archive.ph/ei92s

Metalcat

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #7 on: February 21, 2023, 09:04:10 AM »
Is this really "hidden" though?

Hasn't this been talked about for literally decades? People just don't care and don't want to listen.

People generally make short term, lifestyle decisions. I mean, I personally bought two coastal properties last year with only a 10 year timeline for my planning.

uniwelder

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2023, 09:21:28 AM »
Here's the article with the paywall removed.

https://archive.ph/ei92s

Thank you!

Paper Chaser

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2023, 09:31:50 AM »
If anybody wants to experiment with potential impacts of rising sea levels in the US, here's the government's tool:

https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/2/-10514575.245145073/4166414.3050564444/5/satellite/none/0.8/2050/interHigh/midAccretion

uniwelder

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2023, 09:50:49 AM »
Is this really "hidden" though?

Hasn't this been talked about for literally decades? People just don't care and don't want to listen.

People generally make short term, lifestyle decisions. I mean, I personally bought two coastal properties last year with only a 10 year timeline for my planning.

What's your plan for them after 10 years?  Are you in an area that is at risk of sea level rise?  I think one of your houses is in the Nova Scotia region, but I seem to think a lot of that area is significantly above sea level and there aren't many natural disasters to affect you.

dang1

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2023, 10:28:35 AM »
weather's nice in the sf bay area, rather not live where it snows, really like the diversity here, figure i'll move if things go bad

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2023, 10:31:47 AM »
Will that happen? Could we be so utterly devastated that people from Florida to NYC to Alaska will all stop and say "oh shit, it's all real" beyond an earthquake (ironically the one not-climate related disaster) in SoCal that kills hundreds of thousands and wipes companies and services off the map. Either that or a solar flare that wipes out the power grid to half the world.

RE earthquakes: I've spent most of my life in California and it still amazes me how unprepared most people are for the inevitable earthquake. No basic survival kit, no earthquake insurance. Yeah, I guess most people think it won't happen even though the Hayward and San Andreas faults are overdue for a big one.   

I personally don't think so. I think it's going to be a slow and painful realization, constant mega storms and "once in a generation" weather events coupled with the loss of skiable winter in the Rockies.

Unfortunately I think you're right. After enough disasters the futility of it all may finally become apparent.

Metalcat

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2023, 10:32:45 AM »
Is this really "hidden" though?

Hasn't this been talked about for literally decades? People just don't care and don't want to listen.

People generally make short term, lifestyle decisions. I mean, I personally bought two coastal properties last year with only a 10 year timeline for my planning.

What's your plan for them after 10 years?  Are you in an area that is at risk of sea level rise?  I think one of your houses is in the Nova Scotia region, but I seem to think a lot of that area is significantly above sea level and there aren't many natural disasters to affect you.

No sea level or erosion issues, but hurricanes are a major problem.

One is on the edge of NL, in an area where 100km winds are the norm in the winter. The weather will have to get pretty extreme to rip those houses apart, but if/when it does, people just won't live in coastal NL anymore.

But buying in rural NL, you just have to take the risk that the community will shutter anyway for totally non weather related reasons. I may never recoup my outlay to buy there, it's a lifestyle purchase and I only need it to work for 10 years to be worth it. Hopefully it will work out much longer, but I can amortize the cost over a decade and be happy with it just as a luxury spend.

The second property is in the fastest growing region of the country in New Brunswick. I intend to sell within 10 years and have already profited nicely in just one. It's on the ocean, but tucked in under the corner of Maine, so nowhere near as vulnerable.

Bad storms will be an issue and rising water could be a problem for the main peninsula long term, maybe. It's harder to predict in that area.

But I'm also not spending 7 figures on a "forever" home with delusions that everything will turn out just fine.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2023, 10:38:40 AM »
weather's nice in the sf bay area, rather not live where it snows, really like the diversity here, figure i'll move if things go bad

That's a fine plan if you're renting and can afford to move. The real problem is for owners, because once the risk is revealed the property is permanently devalued and difficult to sell.

GilesMM

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #15 on: February 21, 2023, 12:29:50 PM »
Forest fires and climate are visible. The hidden time bomb is the 9.5 quake that will demolish the Pacific Northwest any time. The economy could take a generation to recover.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #16 on: February 21, 2023, 12:50:09 PM »
Forest fires and climate are visible. The hidden time bomb is the 9.5 quake that will demolish the Pacific Northwest any time. The economy could take a generation to recover.

One may make the other much worse. Imagine a scenario where the San Andreas ruptures from SoCal to NorCal, as has happened in the past. But now let's say it's at the peak of fire season. How will authorities respond to wildfires made much worse by climate change with widespread infrastructure failures.

ChpBstrd

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #17 on: February 21, 2023, 01:21:33 PM »
When Hurricane Katrina flooded much of New Orleans in 2005, I watched the refugees pouring out of the city and wondered why any of them would rebuild there as opposed to the higher ground a couple hundred miles away in Baton Rouge, Shreveport, or various parts of Texas, Arkansas, or Mississippi that are not disaster-prone, and which are also cheaper to live in than N.O. The whole future of the city seemed questionable since it was (a) already largely destroyed, and (b) still below sea level, and (c) facing all sorts of new financial problems now that about 30% of its taxpayers had left.

As it turns out, the population of N.O. has been growing since Katrina, and finally exceeded its pre-Katrina numbers in 2021. New stick-house construction has been going in below sea level, even as the land continues to subside and the ocean continues to rise.

The assumption is that new levees will keep New Orleans livable for the foreseeable future, much like Galveston's heroic efforts to build a massive seawall, lift buildings, and pump in up to 17 feet of sand after the 1900 hurricane kept it safe for the following 123 years (so far). I don't believe that assumption, but enough people do.

When it comes to Miami, Charleston, Washington D.C., New York City, Houston, faultline cities in CA, etc. I think we'll see a similar pattern. Inevitable destruction will be followed by very expensive fortifications, which will be followed by even more people moving to the previously destroyed area. The destruction itself opens up the possibility for a city to become a mostly-new boomtown, full of development, and of course that attracts even more people. Apparently this growth prospect is sufficiently attractive to overcome high insurance costs, the high costs of fortifications against the risk, and the continued risk to life and limb from living there.

Expect more Katrina-like mass casualty events, followed by economic booms and the migration of people into the disaster zone.

former player

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #18 on: February 21, 2023, 01:32:58 PM »
I turned down the chance to buy a pretty little cottage 20 years ago when I saw that it was in a river flood zone on one of the earliest flood zone maps the UK produced - I worked on environmental law issues so was aware then.  Those maps are updated and show thousands of homes subject to flood risk but I'm not seeing any reduction in house sales or prices in those areas.  Some areas will be protected, others won't: the plans for which areas are which are also on line now and those don't seem to make any difference either.  It's unfathomable to me, and a lot of people are going to get a rude awakening sooner rather than later in house-owning terms.  The local council is already planning for sea level rises of 1 metre in the next 70 years, and that may still increase.

I'm coastal, but a few hundred yards back and 40 meters up, on rock.  Unless a large meteor falls offshore I'm safe from a tsunami and the erosion rates  are highly unlikely to outpace my remaining years on the planet.

brandon1827

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #19 on: February 21, 2023, 01:42:12 PM »
Mostly PTF

I live in TN where none of these issues are a concern, but as friends and relatives get closer to retirement, many of them still dream of a "beach house" and some are still selling everything here and buying on the coast somewhere. Every time I see it happen, I hope they outlive the sea level rise that is all but assured to wipe out many coastal areas and this further cements us staying put. We're still a ways off from retirement anyway, but I'm thankful that my wife isn't one of those with big dreams of living on the beach when we're done working
« Last Edit: February 21, 2023, 02:30:31 PM by brandon1827 »

Michael in ABQ

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #20 on: February 21, 2023, 04:08:05 PM »
When Hurricane Katrina flooded much of New Orleans in 2005, I watched the refugees pouring out of the city and wondered why any of them would rebuild there as opposed to the higher ground a couple hundred miles away in Baton Rouge, Shreveport, or various parts of Texas, Arkansas, or Mississippi that are not disaster-prone, and which are also cheaper to live in than N.O. The whole future of the city seemed questionable since it was (a) already largely destroyed, and (b) still below sea level, and (c) facing all sorts of new financial problems now that about 30% of its taxpayers had left.

As it turns out, the population of N.O. has been growing since Katrina, and finally exceeded its pre-Katrina numbers in 2021. New stick-house construction has been going in below sea level, even as the land continues to subside and the ocean continues to rise.

The assumption is that new levees will keep New Orleans livable for the foreseeable future, much like Galveston's heroic efforts to build a massive seawall, lift buildings, and pump in up to 17 feet of sand after the 1900 hurricane kept it safe for the following 123 years (so far). I don't believe that assumption, but enough people do.

When it comes to Miami, Charleston, Washington D.C., New York City, Houston, faultline cities in CA, etc. I think we'll see a similar pattern. Inevitable destruction will be followed by very expensive fortifications, which will be followed by even more people moving to the previously destroyed area. The destruction itself opens up the possibility for a city to become a mostly-new boomtown, full of development, and of course that attracts even more people. Apparently this growth prospect is sufficiently attractive to overcome high insurance costs, the high costs of fortifications against the risk, and the continued risk to life and limb from living there.

Expect more Katrina-like mass casualty events, followed by economic booms and the migration of people into the disaster zone.

These high costs are generally not borne by the people living there so it's much easier to take the risk. If the residents of New Orleans had to pay for their share of the new levee (as opposed to it being spread over the whole state or country via taxes) they might make some different decisions.

People will eventually respond to incentives and if insurance on a home costs as much (or more) than the mortgage payment, it's going to make a lot of people decide that home in that location isn't worth it. For those that can afford it and take the risk, so be it. But I don't much feel like subsidizing hurricane/flood insurance along the Gulf Coast since I don't choose to live there.

Jon Bon

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #21 on: February 21, 2023, 04:35:58 PM »
On the one hand flooding is not a new phenomena, we have dealt with floods for our entire history as a species I could even argue that flooding has gotten to be less of a problem due to large scale engineering projects, more warning/prediction, and better preparation. If you want to read about a flood, check out the Mississippi flood of 1927.

Now on the other hand I also completely understand that we have built a shitload of houses in some of the most flood prone areas in the past 100 years. In general the newer the house the more resistant it tends be to extreme events.

I do think the first step is going to have to be stop substituting homes in dangerous areas. Sure grandfather people in, don't leave them completely without insurance. But the government should not really be in the business of insuring things that the private sector has deemed so unprofitable that they are only player in the marketplace. Don't let Freddie Mac buy mortgages on the coast, don't have FEMA cut checks to people that have intentionally built in certain areas etc etc.

As a relatively rich person who is considering a beach house at some point, the dynamite metaphor is a good one. It 100% is a risk, but what investment is completely safe? Many a beach house I have been in do really seam to be built to only last 30 years. If a hurricane knocks it down that is already priced in. Much like the price of a stock is heavily effected by new information, the information about flooding is not new.  Everyone knows the game. As the risks to these areas increase, prices will adjust. Its not like anyone who wants to buy a house in Florida is unaware that hurricanes tend to visit there and all.

Now what do you do about what happened in Houston? I have no idea!




« Last Edit: February 21, 2023, 07:25:46 PM by Jon Bon »

srrb

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2023, 06:25:11 PM »
Ptf. Not enough water is another piece. There are lots of little islands in the PNW that are fun and beautiful to visit but there are already water issues. Wells running dry sooner/easier than in the past ... less rainfall. So the ocean is rising from below and less water from above (and wherever the ground/surface water happens to come from)

NorCal

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2023, 07:32:50 PM »
I think a potential massive wake-up call will be when Colorado River cuts come across this year.  The cuts needed are massive and can’t be papered over with government money.  Although I don’t know if people on the east coast will really notice.   

As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.

ChpBstrd

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2023, 08:23:28 PM »
I think a potential massive wake-up call will be when Colorado River cuts come across this year.  The cuts needed are massive and can’t be papered over with government money.  Although I don’t know if people on the east coast will really notice.   

As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.
Yea, if water was priced based on demand and scarcity instead of political considerations, there would be no golf courses, car washes, or green lawns in the desert Southwest. People would have backyard rain barrels because a barrel of water is worth $30-50 in that context. We might not find out what happens until the taps actually run dry.

In terms of rising sea levels, I do wonder whether the deeply indebted United States will have a strong enough economy to build New Orleans style levees around all the cities along the Gulf Coast / East Coast, New York City, and places like Anchorage. We're talking about a project on the scale of the interstate highway system, except that it doesn't benefit the minority of the population who live inland. In fact, it makes their land worth less than it would be if climate refugees had to move to higher ground.

Of course, cities in poorer places will simply be abandoned a little bit at a time over the years.

dang1

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #25 on: February 22, 2023, 12:21:45 AM »
weather's nice in the sf bay area, rather not live where it snows, really like the diversity here, figure i'll move if things go bad
That's a fine plan if you're renting and can afford to move. The real problem is for owners, because once the risk is revealed the property is permanently devalued and difficult to sell.
I suppose when I bought my house in 2011, it was kinda devalued; the increase since then better than a poke in the eye

If I survive the Big One ( inreach satellite messenger I keep in my everyday carry backpack hopefully will be handy), and if it turns out coast is economically cratered, might just head back to my southeast asian birthplace (most recent are my former san diegan cousins enjoying their now tropical life splashed in their Facebook), and hands-on manage the family business; or go back and forth (before they passed away, post-retirement, my parents spent winters there).

NorCal

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #26 on: February 22, 2023, 08:25:41 AM »
I think a potential massive wake-up call will be when Colorado River cuts come across this year.  The cuts needed are massive and can’t be papered over with government money.  Although I don’t know if people on the east coast will really notice.   

As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.
Yea, if water was priced based on demand and scarcity instead of political considerations, there would be no golf courses, car washes, or green lawns in the desert Southwest. People would have backyard rain barrels because a barrel of water is worth $30-50 in that context. We might not find out what happens until the taps actually run dry.

In terms of rising sea levels, I do wonder whether the deeply indebted United States will have a strong enough economy to build New Orleans style levees around all the cities along the Gulf Coast / East Coast, New York City, and places like Anchorage. We're talking about a project on the scale of the interstate highway system, except that it doesn't benefit the minority of the population who live inland. In fact, it makes their land worth less than it would be if climate refugees had to move to higher ground.

Of course, cities in poorer places will simply be abandoned a little bit at a time over the years.

It’s not just water getting into cities. Although the answer to holding back the ocean is almost always a hard “no”.

Higher oceans impact the freshwater supply for a lot of communities. A higher ocean can be the difference between wells near the coast drawing freshwater vs saltwater.

Also, California may have some serious water supply problems with the ocean, although this is many decades out. Combining a higher ocean with lower river flows means more that saltwater will eventually intrude further up the Bay Area delta. If that hits the pump system for the state canal system, the Central Valley water supply will become mostly saltwater.

GilesMM

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #27 on: February 22, 2023, 08:45:05 AM »
California will eventually have to go to massive solar powered RO systems.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #28 on: February 22, 2023, 09:18:01 AM »
weather's nice in the sf bay area, rather not live where it snows, really like the diversity here, figure i'll move if things go bad
That's a fine plan if you're renting and can afford to move. The real problem is for owners, because once the risk is revealed the property is permanently devalued and difficult to sell.
I suppose when I bought my house in 2011, it was kinda devalued; the increase since then better than a poke in the eye

If you bought in 2011 you're doing fine. We bought an investment property at around that time and did quite well by the time we sold it in 2020. But I think you may be assuming (like a lot of people) that you will see a devaluation coming and have time to react before it happens. I used to believe this but recent events have changed my thinking. What really happens is everything is fine until suddenly it isn't, and at that point you have to disclose the new reality when selling, which means sudden devaluation.

For example, it was long assumed that the redwood forests of the Santa Cruz mountains were relatively safe from wildfire. This wasn't the dry dangerous forests of Ponderosa Pines and Oak trees of the inland ranges, but rather safer lush green redwoods and ferns with high moisture content. People built accordingly, with most houses right up in the trees and no defensible space. But then what wasn't supposed to happen did when dry lightning ignited the CZU fire and changed everything. Around 900 homes were lost, along with naive notions that the forest was safe from fire. Fire risk maps were updated which has filtered into the insurance market. I'm hearing from folks there that fire insurance rates have roughly tripled along with increasing difficulty finding insurers willing to write policies. Those that lost structures are struggling to rebuild, yet they can't get much for their land due to the increased fire risk, so they're kinda stuck.

If I survive the Big One ( inreach satellite messenger I keep in my everyday carry backpack hopefully will be handy), and if it turns out coast is economically cratered, might just head back to my southeast asian birthplace (most recent are my former san diegan cousins enjoying their now tropical life splashed in their Facebook), and hands-on manage the family business; or go back and forth (before they passed away, post-retirement, my parents spent winters there).

I lived through the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989, and I carry an InReach while backpacking/hunting in wilderness areas. The InReach essentially needs line-of-sight to a satellite, so it's unlikely to work if you're trapped under rubble. If you can get outside it may be fine for letting loved ones know you're ok, assuming of course that communication networks aren't overwhelmed (a very real possibility). What you really need is an earthquake kit that can get you through about a week w/o water, electricity, shelter, and food. This again is one of those things that seems simple enough, but people put it off until it's too late. You're not going to find emergency  supplies after a big one hits.

clarkfan1979

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #29 on: February 22, 2023, 10:00:19 AM »
Interesting article today in The Atlantic: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb

This brings up something I've observed and wondered about for several years now. The most expensive housing is along the coast, or often large properties in densely wooded forest. These are the most at risk to climate change, and yet people are still attracted to these areas. I see it on this forum, but also in other places online and among friends and family.

The article focuses on flood risk in low-lying areas, which is valid. Though California recently got another glimpse of the future with storms that eroded ocean cliffs much faster than anyone anticipated, which is now threatening infrastructure and homes that were assumed to be safe for at least a few more decades.

The big one for me is wildfire risk. I've seen big wildfires up close and it's both awe inspiring and terrifying. I'm shocked that people still want to buy/build homes in the forest and/or WUI, especially in the arid west. High insurance premiums, the very high likelihood of losing everything followed by a stressful and lengthy rebuild, risk of injury or death... just a bad idea all around. And yet people still want that stick frame home in the path of a future inferno.

I'm left wondering how many climate related natural disasters we have to live through before things change.

I bought a primary home in Fort Myers, FL in January 2012 for 95K. It's about 3 miles away from the Gulf. I converted it to a rental in August 2015. Current rent is $2150/month and it's worth 365K. Market rent is $2850/month. After hurricane Ian market rent went from $2450/month to $2850/month due to a housing shortage. I'm just guessing, but maybe 5-10% of the houses in the Fort Myers area became unlivable after the hurricane. Even though it's probably less than 10%, this put an additional squeeze on the already low housing inventory.

Hurricane Ian was pretty much a direct hit for my house and I didn't even lose one shingle. This is mostly because my house is 3 miles inland. While winds might have been 140 mph when it hit the barrier islands, wind speeds were around 80 mph when it hit my rental. We get 80 mph winds multiple times a year at my current primary house in Colorado.   

sonofsven

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #30 on: February 22, 2023, 10:29:35 AM »
Forest fires and climate are visible. The hidden time bomb is the 9.5 quake that will demolish the Pacific Northwest any time. The economy could take a generation to recover.
I've worked on the Oregon coast quite a bit. The folks that worry about the possibility of a big earthquake and tsunami generally don't buy on the coast. Real estate and building has been booming, although it has slowed a bit lately due to interest rates.
I'm inland a bit, like most of the other contractors I know, and safe from the tsunami threat (and better weather), but the reality is that a big quake will destroy much of the infrastructure of the coast, and if the valley (Willamette) is hit hard, it will be a long time before the coast gets much help. Besides air drops the other option will be using troop landing ships on the beach.
Since I build houses and deal with all the seismic tie downs and such in the framing process I am a little interested in the outcome, but I hope it doesn't happen as it will be devastating.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #31 on: February 22, 2023, 12:54:25 PM »
Interesting article today in The Atlantic: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb

This brings up something I've observed and wondered about for several years now. The most expensive housing is along the coast, or often large properties in densely wooded forest. These are the most at risk to climate change, and yet people are still attracted to these areas. I see it on this forum, but also in other places online and among friends and family.

The article focuses on flood risk in low-lying areas, which is valid. Though California recently got another glimpse of the future with storms that eroded ocean cliffs much faster than anyone anticipated, which is now threatening infrastructure and homes that were assumed to be safe for at least a few more decades.

The big one for me is wildfire risk. I've seen big wildfires up close and it's both awe inspiring and terrifying. I'm shocked that people still want to buy/build homes in the forest and/or WUI, especially in the arid west. High insurance premiums, the very high likelihood of losing everything followed by a stressful and lengthy rebuild, risk of injury or death... just a bad idea all around. And yet people still want that stick frame home in the path of a future inferno.

I'm left wondering how many climate related natural disasters we have to live through before things change.

I bought a primary home in Fort Myers, FL in January 2012 for 95K. It's about 3 miles away from the Gulf. I converted it to a rental in August 2015. Current rent is $2150/month and it's worth 365K. Market rent is $2850/month. After hurricane Ian market rent went from $2450/month to $2850/month due to a housing shortage. I'm just guessing, but maybe 5-10% of the houses in the Fort Myers area became unlivable after the hurricane. Even though it's probably less than 10%, this put an additional squeeze on the already low housing inventory.

Hurricane Ian was pretty much a direct hit for my house and I didn't even lose one shingle. This is mostly because my house is 3 miles inland. While winds might have been 140 mph when it hit the barrier islands, wind speeds were around 80 mph when it hit my rental. We get 80 mph winds multiple times a year at my current primary house in Colorado.

This is a great example of how scarcity due to natural disasters can drive up profitability for anyone whose infrastructure is still intact. Others will see those profits and invest in the area. Next thing you know, thousands of new stick houses have been built to replace the thousands destroyed by nature.

This example also suggests an optimal strategy for investing in disaster-prone areas. Don't be the sucker on the waterfront when the hurricane comes, be the person a few miles inland. Don't be the sucker with earthquake-vulnerable houses, be the one with houses that will survive a 7.0. The extreme profits, opportunities to ride up prices, and opportunities to buy out your neighbors only come if your infrastructure survives the event.

clarkfan1979

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #32 on: February 23, 2023, 02:28:19 PM »
Interesting article today in The Atlantic: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb

This brings up something I've observed and wondered about for several years now. The most expensive housing is along the coast, or often large properties in densely wooded forest. These are the most at risk to climate change, and yet people are still attracted to these areas. I see it on this forum, but also in other places online and among friends and family.

The article focuses on flood risk in low-lying areas, which is valid. Though California recently got another glimpse of the future with storms that eroded ocean cliffs much faster than anyone anticipated, which is now threatening infrastructure and homes that were assumed to be safe for at least a few more decades.

The big one for me is wildfire risk. I've seen big wildfires up close and it's both awe inspiring and terrifying. I'm shocked that people still want to buy/build homes in the forest and/or WUI, especially in the arid west. High insurance premiums, the very high likelihood of losing everything followed by a stressful and lengthy rebuild, risk of injury or death... just a bad idea all around. And yet people still want that stick frame home in the path of a future inferno.

I'm left wondering how many climate related natural disasters we have to live through before things change.

I bought a primary home in Fort Myers, FL in January 2012 for 95K. It's about 3 miles away from the Gulf. I converted it to a rental in August 2015. Current rent is $2150/month and it's worth 365K. Market rent is $2850/month. After hurricane Ian market rent went from $2450/month to $2850/month due to a housing shortage. I'm just guessing, but maybe 5-10% of the houses in the Fort Myers area became unlivable after the hurricane. Even though it's probably less than 10%, this put an additional squeeze on the already low housing inventory.

Hurricane Ian was pretty much a direct hit for my house and I didn't even lose one shingle. This is mostly because my house is 3 miles inland. While winds might have been 140 mph when it hit the barrier islands, wind speeds were around 80 mph when it hit my rental. We get 80 mph winds multiple times a year at my current primary house in Colorado.

This is a great example of how scarcity due to natural disasters can drive up profitability for anyone whose infrastructure is still intact. Others will see those profits and invest in the area. Next thing you know, thousands of new stick houses have been built to replace the thousands destroyed by nature.

This example also suggests an optimal strategy for investing in disaster-prone areas. Don't be the sucker on the waterfront when the hurricane comes, be the person a few miles inland. Don't be the sucker with earthquake-vulnerable houses, be the one with houses that will survive a 7.0. The extreme profits, opportunities to ride up prices, and opportunities to buy out your neighbors only come if your infrastructure survives the event.

Buying inland and also a higher elevation lot were both a conscious strategy to mitigate risk. I first learned about the potential upside of surviving a natural disaster from the movie, "Forrest Gump"

Abe

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #33 on: February 26, 2023, 09:03:08 PM »
I have come to the conclusion that it's going to be a death by a thousand cuts. Even mega-disasters like Katrina and Sandy failed to wake most people up. Only when they are personally affected does the attitude change. Having lived through over a dozen hurricanes (inland, not foolish enough to live near the shore), I saw it time and again. This is mostly due to the "activation energy" needed to do something (i.e. move from everything you know and settle somewhere new). Few people are willing (or financially able) to make that kind of sacrifice without a major prod.

So more of a slow burn/drown than a bomb, so the economic effects will be slower to manifest and thus easier to ignore as a society.

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #34 on: February 27, 2023, 01:53:40 AM »
I have come to the conclusion that it's going to be a death by a thousand cuts. Even mega-disasters like Katrina and Sandy failed to wake most people up. Only when they are personally affected does the attitude change. Having lived through over a dozen hurricanes (inland, not foolish enough to live near the shore), I saw it time and again. This is mostly due to the "activation energy" needed to do something (i.e. move from everything you know and settle somewhere new). Few people are willing (or financially able) to make that kind of sacrifice without a major prod.

So more of a slow burn/drown than a bomb, so the economic effects will be slower to manifest and thus easier to ignore as a society.
There is a huge "everyone else is doing it so it must be alright" inertia on climate change.

The biggest climate effect at the moment is not one-off weather events but migration: that is not unnoticed but most people are not making the connection between climate change and migration.  They are certainly not making the connection that the irreversible course towards climate change that we are now all on will make the pressure of migration bigger and bigger.  The people protesting migration would do better to protest climate change.  And the people in the developed world concerned about climate change seem not to notice that the biggest change to their standard of living is not going to be one-off events but the movement of a billion or two billion people away from lands around the equator that within this current century are going to become unable to sustain their present levels of human life.


JupiterGreen

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #35 on: February 27, 2023, 07:38:17 AM »
I have come to the conclusion that it's going to be a death by a thousand cuts. Even mega-disasters like Katrina and Sandy failed to wake most people up. Only when they are personally affected does the attitude change. Having lived through over a dozen hurricanes (inland, not foolish enough to live near the shore), I saw it time and again. This is mostly due to the "activation energy" needed to do something (i.e. move from everything you know and settle somewhere new). Few people are willing (or financially able) to make that kind of sacrifice without a major prod.

So more of a slow burn/drown than a bomb, so the economic effects will be slower to manifest and thus easier to ignore as a society.
There is a huge "everyone else is doing it so it must be alright" inertia on climate change.

The biggest climate effect at the moment is not one-off weather events but migration: that is not unnoticed but most people are not making the connection between climate change and migration.  They are certainly not making the connection that the irreversible course towards climate change that we are now all on will make the pressure of migration bigger and bigger.  The people protesting migration would do better to protest climate change.  And the people in the developed world concerned about climate change seem not to notice that the biggest change to their standard of living is not going to be one-off events but the movement of a billion or two billion people away from lands around the equator that within this current century are going to become unable to sustain their present levels of human life.

Good points. I have connections with a couple of coastal cities and (anecdotally) I have seen some mindset changes. A friend of mine is moving her business inland and several others buying homes with an eye on sea level rise. But overwhelmingly, the sentiment in this thread is spot on, and as @Abe mentioned it will probably be death by 1000 cuts for most

dang1

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #36 on: February 27, 2023, 11:20:42 AM »
with disaster looming, maybe coastal california’s nimby intransigence is spot on: competition for housing discourages large lower-income population growth, the cachet keeps the wealthy coming, uber disaster capitalism, keep cashing out on that equity while the going's good, then walk away from disaster-induced permanently devalued property

CrustyBadger

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #37 on: February 27, 2023, 12:03:17 PM »
ProPublica put out this article a few years ago. They reviewed data from something called the Rhodium Group and analyzed it not just for sea level rise and flooding, but also other type of climate related hazards: heat, something called "wet bulb temperature", farm crop yields, large fires, and economic damage.

https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration

They predicted "compounding calamities" and ranked counties that were likely to see the most harmful effects in all areas.

Some of the worst affected counties are predicted to be in LA, North and South Carolina, and Florida.

On the better end of the scale, counties in Vermont, Maine, NY, Colorado Idaho and VA seem to have fewer overall calamaties to worry about.

uniwelder

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2023, 01:13:12 PM »
ProPublica put out this article a few years ago. They reviewed data from something called the Rhodium Group and analyzed it not just for sea level rise and flooding, but also other type of climate related hazards: heat, something called "wet bulb temperature", farm crop yields, large fires, and economic damage.

https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration

They predicted "compounding calamities" and ranked counties that were likely to see the most harmful effects in all areas.

Some of the worst affected counties are predicted to be in LA, North and South Carolina, and Florida.

On the better end of the scale, counties in Vermont, Maine, NY, Colorado Idaho and VA seem to have fewer overall calamaties to worry about.

I really enjoyed reading that article and the visual nature of all the effects across the map.  Made me glad to live where I do.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2023, 01:25:32 PM »
with disaster looming, maybe coastal california’s nimby intransigence is spot on: competition for housing discourages large lower-income population growth, the cachet keeps the wealthy coming, uber disaster capitalism, keep cashing out on that equity while the going's good, then walk away from disaster-induced permanently devalued property

Hah, doubtful. Very few Californians live right on the coast, and low-income communities like East Palo Alto are more likely to be impacted by rising sea levels, No, NIMBYs are mostly older affluent white people fighting to maintain exclusionary zoning in low density suburbs. Places like Atherton, Woodside, Saratoga, and so on. One of the main things we need to do to slow climate change is build dense walkable cities with short commutes. NIMBYs are on the wrong side of history on this.

dang1

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #40 on: February 27, 2023, 03:19:00 PM »
with disaster looming, ..

..NIMBYs are mostly older affluent white people fighting to maintain exclusionary zoning in low density suburbs. Places like Atherton, Woodside, Saratoga, and so on. One of the main things we need to do to slow climate change is build dense walkable cities with short commutes. ,,

San Francisco too:
parking lot that could have been housing remains a ‘poster child for the insanity’ in S.F.
San Francisco rejected a 495-unit tower on a South of Market parking lot, the vote is still reverberating across the city’s political landscape. The Board of Supervisors’ vote against the project, which included about 100 affordable units
 https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/nordstrom-parking-lot-housing-17531933.php

and Berkeley
Gov. Gavin Newsom said the California Environmental Quality Act “needs to change” after a court cited it while blocking UC Berkeley from building student housing at People’s Park.
https://edsource.org/updates/newsom-says-law-needs-to-change-after-uc-berkeley-housing-project-blocked


maybe not Dublin.
From 2010 to 2020, this East Bay bedroom community became a boomtown, growing its population from 46,000 to nearly 73,000 — a 58% increase. median price for a home in Dublin is $1.2 million
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/dublin-population-growing-17781799.php


reality is a lot of people just not a big fan of high density cities; with work from home and EV’s, low density suburbs may be a climate change fight compromise

gdborton

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #41 on: February 27, 2023, 03:44:25 PM »
Agree to a limited extent. I think that west coast is way overpriced even w/o the risk of climate change.

A few things to consider though.

1. Insurance, depending on the type of risk you're likely to incur you might be insured against the actual damage, so it'll be insurance cos (and therefore everyone not hit will subsidize) that actually face a lot of the cost.
2. Mortgages are non-recourse loans, for those that get stuck with high cost properties that then sink in value to the point they cannot sell, they always have the option to walk away (banks get hit).
3. Venice has been sinking for forever, any individual property likely has multiple safeguards that they could be put into place to offset damage.

IMO remote work is as big, if not bigger issue although they seem to be handling it pretty well. We'll see how long this lasts w/ the return to office mandates happening, and states like CA giving concessions to keep companies.

roomtempmayo

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #42 on: March 03, 2023, 04:42:17 PM »
As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.

The perverse element in this dynamic is that the more people who live in disaster-prone areas, the greater the chance that the government backstop will never be removed.  The greater the national moral hazard, the more political will is created for a bailout, creating a reinforcing cycle of risk-taking.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #43 on: March 03, 2023, 06:07:33 PM »
As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.

The perverse element in this dynamic is that the more people who live in disaster-prone areas, the greater the chance that the government backstop will never be removed.  The greater the national moral hazard, the more political will is created for a bailout, creating a reinforcing cycle of risk-taking.

'Merica!

NorCal

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #44 on: March 04, 2023, 10:16:05 AM »
As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.

The perverse element in this dynamic is that the more people who live in disaster-prone areas, the greater the chance that the government backstop will never be removed.  The greater the national moral hazard, the more political will is created for a bailout, creating a reinforcing cycle of risk-taking.

I think this can be situation dependent as well. I’ve been reading a bit about the insurance market in Florida, and it seems pretty clear they’re in the early days of an insurance death spiral. Climate Change is one of several factors pushing the market that direction.

Most homeowner insurance providers are either leaving or have left the state. Many houses are only insurance through the state backstop plan.  So the state of Florida is the insurance backstop, but it is structured in a way where a funding shortfall will trigger assessments on other policy holders.  So the government backstop will clearly run out eventually, and policy holders will pay the price.  And the ability of the state to further subsidize this is above zero, but well below what would actually be needed.

I’d be curious to hear additional thoughts from those who live in Florida, as I don’t fully trust the bias filters of the random internet articles out there.

roomtempmayo

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #45 on: March 04, 2023, 11:36:36 AM »
As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.

The perverse element in this dynamic is that the more people who live in disaster-prone areas, the greater the chance that the government backstop will never be removed.  The greater the national moral hazard, the more political will is created for a bailout, creating a reinforcing cycle of risk-taking.

I think this can be situation dependent as well. I’ve been reading a bit about the insurance market in Florida, and it seems pretty clear they’re in the early days of an insurance death spiral. Climate Change is one of several factors pushing the market that direction.

Most homeowner insurance providers are either leaving or have left the state. Many houses are only insurance through the state backstop plan.  So the state of Florida is the insurance backstop, but it is structured in a way where a funding shortfall will trigger assessments on other policy holders.  So the government backstop will clearly run out eventually, and policy holders will pay the price.  And the ability of the state to further subsidize this is above zero, but well below what would actually be needed.

I’d be curious to hear additional thoughts from those who live in Florida, as I don’t fully trust the bias filters of the random internet articles out there.

The question to me is whether the federal government will ultimately backstop state insurance programs. I think they will, if the only other choice is to watch a major part of the economy crash and burn.

It’s at least plausible that a president could do it with FEMA money by executive order in the aftermath of a disaster. So perhaps what’s most critical is getting a sympathetic president- say, your governor - in the Oval Office. The rules and math are basically an afterthought at that point.

FINate

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #46 on: April 12, 2023, 07:41:17 PM »
From my old stomping grounds: ‘I’ve seen enough’: Santa Cruz mountain town grapples with disasters

Living in the forest means you're going to deal with wildfires and falling trees, both will get worse with climate change.

There's a dissonance in these types of articles, a desire to put a positive spin on a difficult reality. It's a great community but we're living disaster to disaster. And people have had enough and are leaving, yet new people are moving in.

ender

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #47 on: April 13, 2023, 07:46:52 AM »
The part that has always confused me is even if you make a pretty bold assumption that climate change isn't happening, there are still major systemic issues which are not "climate" related such as fresh water availability which no one argues are not happening.

These issues are going to cause massive problems (even in the USA) and basically no one disagrees with them or their impacts.

I know personally I think a lot about this whole topic as we consider where to move since we're actively debating this topic now and have, essentially, no constraints. I also think about how much land to purchase too from the perspective of more easily being able to grow food and/or raise animals.

former player

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #48 on: April 13, 2023, 08:48:21 AM »
The part that has always confused me is even if you make a pretty bold assumption that climate change isn't happening, there are still major systemic issues which are not "climate" related such as fresh water availability which no one argues are not happening.

These issues are going to cause massive problems (even in the USA) and basically no one disagrees with them or their impacts.

I know personally I think a lot about this whole topic as we consider where to move since we're actively debating this topic now and have, essentially, no constraints. I also think about how much land to purchase too from the perspective of more easily being able to grow food and/or raise animals.
You need a lot less land than you think to grow food, unless you are going in for something like  wheat, barley or oats.  Food animals other than chickens takes you into smallholding/farm territory and is a whole different ball game.

clarkfan1979

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Re: America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb
« Reply #49 on: April 13, 2023, 12:39:33 PM »
As a society we’ve become accustomed to government backstops on the big risks. We can count on an insurer to pay their claims, usually even in insolvency. We can count on rescue helicopters and flood insurance and charity to take the edge off the worst disasters. It’s part of our psyche.  People will start paying a lot more attention when we start having disasters that the government can’t backstop.

The perverse element in this dynamic is that the more people who live in disaster-prone areas, the greater the chance that the government backstop will never be removed.  The greater the national moral hazard, the more political will is created for a bailout, creating a reinforcing cycle of risk-taking.

I think this can be situation dependent as well. I’ve been reading a bit about the insurance market in Florida, and it seems pretty clear they’re in the early days of an insurance death spiral. Climate Change is one of several factors pushing the market that direction.

Most homeowner insurance providers are either leaving or have left the state. Many houses are only insurance through the state backstop plan.  So the state of Florida is the insurance backstop, but it is structured in a way where a funding shortfall will trigger assessments on other policy holders.  So the government backstop will clearly run out eventually, and policy holders will pay the price.  And the ability of the state to further subsidize this is above zero, but well below what would actually be needed.

I’d be curious to hear additional thoughts from those who live in Florida, as I don’t fully trust the bias filters of the random internet articles out there.

My wife's parents have a 2nd home in North Fort Myers, FL and they don't have a mortgage. Their insurance went up, so they cancelled the policy. I don't really believe property will become worthless because people can't afford the insurance. I think it's very possible that in 20-30 years the only people that can afford to live in Florida are people who don't have a mortgage. Prices might come down a little to accommodate that new trend, but I don't see a crash.

« Last Edit: April 13, 2023, 12:44:28 PM by clarkfan1979 »