America's coastal cities are a hidden time bomb

[AnotherEngineer]

The same controlled burning is needed in the East as well, though we aren't at the same risk for massive fires threatening cities. Plus we can get inches of rain in a day and still technically be in drought. We had a prescribed burn that got out of hand last year in Coastal NC that ended up burning 16,000 acres of preserve that hadn't burned in 70 years. Turns out it was great for the long leaf pine and the flytraps that only live in this small part of the world. https://www.wfae.org/2024-06-06/one-year-after-the-pulp-road-wildfire-green-swamp-preserve-has-bounced-back-even-better

[Le Poisson]

After reading along here for a while I got to wondering what our fire situation looked like in Ontario. In teh far north, a lot of the fires are just allowed to burn since they pose no risk. Most of the efforts to put fires out are near communities or commercial installations (mines, wells, logging operations). The forests are very wild and unmaintained and natural.

The biggest fire I could find was 6022 hectares (15,000 acres) and has been burning since June 2. There is another 3,000 hectare (7500 acre) fire not too far from it. Most of the province is under low fire risk, and honestly, we don't even talk about forest fires around here. I wouldn't know how to protect my property if there was a risk of a forest fire near me.

The fire map is here: https://www.lioapplications.lrc.gov.on.ca/ForestFireInformationMap/index.html?viewer=FFIM.FFIM

[spartana]

^^^ we actually have a lot of controlled/prescribed burns in Calif despite what many people say. But I think in very high wildfire years (like now) it's probably not enough. Or maybe it gets too risky too soon. IDK. We've got a big fire up north now (Park Fire coving 600 square Miles) which isn't even wind driven like most big fires are here later in the fall. Lots of people demanding more controlled burns asap but unlikely to happen and most residents in fire  prone areas are cutting down trees and clearing underbrush around their homes (which is required by law anyways) but the fires are just too massive for that to help much if at all.

One challenge with climate change is that the season that is acceptable for prescribed burns is getting shorter every year.  There’s a lot of forest, and limited time and resources to do it.

True, which means we need to start take a bit more risk and do controlled burns in less than ideal conditions. We need to disabuse ourselves of the fiction that wildfire can be prevented indefinitely. Especially in the semi-arid West, every forest must burn at some point -- it's a fire adapted ecosystem and fire is part of the natural and necessary cycle. The longer we put it off the more fuel builds up, it's like accumulating debt that eventually has to be paid. A less-than-ideal prescribed burn is far better than waiting until an extended heat wave dries vegetation combined with high winds to produce a worst case scenario like we see with the Park Fire, which doesn't just burn the accumulated fuel but also destroys the entire forest, killing mature trees and even degrading the soil due to extreme temperatures.

I know that they are doing lots of backfires now on the western and northern ends of the Park Fire hoping to contain it when another big heat wave and winds starts tomorrow. I know some people about 10 miles west of the fire (who live about 10 miles east of Cottonwood) who have evacuted and I guess they are starting back fires there too. Massive smoke. If the wind does shift it will likely impact the larger cities of Redding and Redbluff. Larsen Nat. Park is now shut down and is in the fires path. Calif does need to.start taking more risk with controlled burn - especially near larger population center - as the fires are just too big and fast moving now.

[glacio09]

I rent in Houston. I've decided that the only way I will buy here is if it's a cheap enough condo that it wouldn't be financial ruin for me to walk away from it, which would be about $250,000. The amount of flooding and the randomness of it make buying a "forever home" unthinkable to me. I fully expect the Texas coast to be the next place insurance places start retreating from.

[spartana]

I rent in Houston. I've decided that the only way I will buy here is if it's a cheap enough condo that it wouldn't be financial ruin for me to walk away from it, which would be about $250,000. The amount of flooding and the randomness of it make buying a "forever home" unthinkable to me. I fully expect the Texas coast to be the next place insurance places start retreating from.

Yeah it's been crazy in Houston the last few years. I hope the hurricanes that are expected this year aren't as bad as they predicted. I was stationed (coast guard) in some coastal places like NOLA, Key West, coastal NC etc and while they got hammered most years, and I was glad I was renting, I don't remember it being as bad as it is now. I've been a homeowner for more than 20 years but am seriously looking into renting forever once my house sells.

[FINate]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

LAT ran a heartbreaking story about a couple that lost their home in Paradise during the Camp Fire  then lost their home again in Cohasset. Only this time they didn't have fire insurance because they couldn't afford the FAIR plan increasing premiums to $12k/year.

I sincerely feel bad for these folks and everyone affected by the fires. Yet also somewhat conflicted, maybe frustrated, that people persist in rebuilding and moving to these extremely high risk areas. When the insurer of last resort increases your premiums from $7k to $12k that's not "unfair" (per the article), it's a reflection of risk. And if someone can no longer afford fire insurance that's a clear indication they can no longer afford to live in such a location. Forgoing insurance on "faith and hope" because they want a "rural setting" (per their GoFundMe) isn't a good plan. Better to sell, even at a loss, than a complete loss.

In related news, the FAIR plan now has over 400k policies, but only $385M to pay claims (https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/california-fair-plan-insurance-19613638.php). That's shockingly low. If their reserves are exceeded, insurance companies operating in the state are on the hook to cover the rest, proportional to their market share. Which is why insurers are racing to reduce their market share in CA, no one wants to be left holding the bag.

[bacchi]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

LAT ran a heartbreaking story about a couple that lost their home in Paradise during the Camp Fire and than lost their home again in Cohasset. Only this time they didn't have fire insurance because they couldn't afford the FAIR plan increasing premiums to $12k/year.

I sincerely feel bad for these folks and everyone affected by the fires. Yet also someone conflicted, maybe frustrated, that people persist in rebuilding and moving to these extremely high risk areas. When the insurer of last resort increases your premiums from $7k to $12k that's not "unfair" (per the article), it's a reflection of risk. And if someone can no longer afford fire insurance that's a clear indication they can no longer afford to live in such a location. Forgoing insurance on a "faith and hope" because they want a "rural setting" (per their GoFundMe) isn't a good plan. Better to sell, even at a loss, than a complete loss.

“Not once, but twice. What are the odds?” he said.

Pretty good, I'd say, if you choose to live in that area. And the odds are increasing.

Looking at the Cohasset pictures, those homes were not practicing good fire hygiene as there are trees maybe 50 feet from the houses. California requires a 100 feet zone in a "State Responsibility Area." This may not have been an SRA but the town should've followed the same rules.

[FINate]

“Not once, but twice. What are the odds?” he said.

Pretty good, I'd say, if you choose to live in that area. And the odds are increasing.

Looking at the Cohasset pictures, those homes were not practicing good fire hygiene as there are trees maybe 50 feet from the houses. California requires a 100 feet zone in a "State Responsibility Area." This may not have been an SRA but the town should've followed the same rules.

Yeah, that quote stuck out to me as well for the same reason. In the language of probabilities, these were independent events. If you live in a place with a high probability for wildfire the odds of your house burning down are high, regardless of how many houses you lost in the past. If they buy again in, say, Forest Ranch then the odds of losing that home are also very high.

Confession time: curiosity got the best of me and I looked up their details. Not going to post specifics here, but it's all public record. The house in Cohasset was indeed "affordable" in the sense that it was on the lower end of prices. But that, in large part, was likely because the property needed a ton of fire mitigation work. Based on satellite imagery, which is usually pretty up to date, there's little defensible space around the structure.  And there were other options in the same price range in cities/tows in the valley, so I'm not buying the notion that it was the only thing they could afford.

Again, I don't want to be overly critical. What they're going through is really hard and I feel for them. But I wish the media would vet these stories better rather than presenting the most sympathetic narrative. This should be a cautionary tale but instead comes across as just a series of unfortunate random events.

[NorCal]

I rent in Houston. I've decided that the only way I will buy here is if it's a cheap enough condo that it wouldn't be financial ruin for me to walk away from it, which would be about $250,000. The amount of flooding and the randomness of it make buying a "forever home" unthinkable to me. I fully expect the Texas coast to be the next place insurance places start retreating from.

Yeah it's been crazy in Houston the last few years. I hope the hurricanes that are expected this year aren't as bad as they predicted. I was stationed (coast guard) in some coastal places like NOLA, Key West, coastal NC etc and while they got hammered most years, and I was glad I was renting, I don't remember it being as bad as it is now. I've been a homeowner for more than 20 years but am seriously looking into renting forever once my house sells.

Renting makes sense from the standpoint of protecting a big cash investment in a property.

But don't forget that landlords pay property insurance too.  From my limited exposure to the real estate investor market, I'd operate under the assumption that most landlords are drastically underinsured and will quickly pass along any insurance increases into rent increases. 

I once almost bought a 9-unit apartment building.  I was under contract.  The insurance agents were quite surprised when I asked about any level of insurance above the minimum lender requirements.   

[spartana]

I rent in Houston. I've decided that the only way I will buy here is if it's a cheap enough condo that it wouldn't be financial ruin for me to walk away from it, which would be about $250,000. The amount of flooding and the randomness of it make buying a "forever home" unthinkable to me. I fully expect the Texas coast to be the next place insurance places start retreating from.

Yeah it's been crazy in Houston the last few years. I hope the hurricanes that are expected this year aren't as bad as they predicted. I was stationed (coast guard) in some coastal places like NOLA, Key West, coastal NC etc and while they got hammered most years, and I was glad I was renting, I don't remember it being as bad as it is now. I've been a homeowner for more than 20 years but am seriously looking into renting forever once my house sells.

Renting makes sense from the standpoint of protecting a big cash investment in a property.

But don't forget that landlords pay property insurance too.  From my limited exposure to the real estate investor market, I'd operate under the assumption that most landlords are drastically underinsured and will quickly pass along any insurance increases into rent increases. 

I once almost bought a 9-unit apartment building.  I was under contract.  The insurance agents were quite surprised when I asked about any level of insurance above the minimum lender requirements.

Yeah I always assume large rent increases even with caps put on them (I think Calif maybe just LA just put a cap of 8.5%/ year on rent increases). And Calif has pretty hardline laws around evictions. But that doesn't mean when you move to a new rental the price could be really high. Like others who own in extremely high fire (or other risks) zones, if I stayed I'd likely lose my insurance eventually. When you are surround by Nat Forest land on all sides there's not much you can do. Thus...I'm GTFO!! Plus I think I'd rather pay a higher rent amount then have a house worth $500k to $1mm that's I risk losing and being uninsured.

[spartana]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

I've been watching this fire closely and the people I know in Lake California (a place that's my version of Hell) about 10 miles from the fire's western border have been able to return home .... but... it seems things are shifting right now. Hotter, drier, winds shifting towards the West etc so they aren't out of the woods yet. I think the heavy ash and smoke is keeping most people away anyways. It's a monster fire though and likely to flare up somewhere. I left my place as escrow closes next week (crossed fingers) and we are staying by the coast now. But I really would have liked to stay up there longer but it's just too much a tinder box now. Plus without a car myself I'd have to evacuate by bicycle if BF wasn't around. At least it's all downhill ;-).

[NorCal]

“Not once, but twice. What are the odds?” he said.

Pretty good, I'd say, if you choose to live in that area. And the odds are increasing.

Looking at the Cohasset pictures, those homes were not practicing good fire hygiene as there are trees maybe 50 feet from the houses. California requires a 100 feet zone in a "State Responsibility Area." This may not have been an SRA but the town should've followed the same rules.

Yeah, that quote stuck out to me as well for the same reason. In the language of probabilities, these were independent events. If you live in a place with a high probability for wildfire the odds of your house burning down are high, regardless of how many houses you lost in the past. If they buy again in, say, Forest Ranch then the odds of losing that home are also very high.

Confession time: curiosity got the best of me and I looked up their details. Not going to post specifics here, but it's all public record. The house in Cohasset was indeed "affordable" in the sense that it was on the lower end of prices. But that, in large part, was likely because the property needed a ton of fire mitigation work. Based on satellite imagery, which is usually pretty up to date, there's little defensible space around the structure.  And there were other options in the same price range in cities/tows in the valley, so I'm not buying the notion that it was the only thing they could afford.

Again, I don't want to be overly critical. What they're going through is really hard and I feel for them. But I wish the media would vet these stories better rather than presenting the most sympathetic narrative. This should be a cautionary tale but instead comes across as just a series of unfortunate random events.

It helps to remind yourself that we're participating in this conversation as a self-selecting group of people interested in the impacts of climate change, insurance and policy.  We are the weird ones in most of the world's eyes.

Most people think "I want to live in the country" and stop at that. 

[FINate]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

I've been watching this fire closely and the people I know in Lake California (a place that's my version of Hell) about 10 miles from the fire's western border have been able to return home .... but... it seems things are shifting right now. Hotter, drier, winds shifting towards the West etc so they aren't out of the woods yet. I think the heavy ash and smoke is keeping most people away anyways. It's a monster fire though and likely to flare up somewhere. I left my place as escrow closes next week (crossed fingers) and we are staying by the coast now. But I really would have liked to stay up there longer but it's just too much a tinder box now. Plus without a car myself I'd have to evacuate by bicycle if BF wasn't around. At least it's all downhill ;-).

Glad you're staying safe, best wishes on the escrow.

A downhill bike evacuation may be faster if traffic backs up. My main concern would be safety. Drivers on the best of days tend to lose their minds if a bike is in front of them, in a heightened evacuation state it this would be terrifying.

RE rent vs. own. I think we may be entering a prolonged period where renting makes more sense. It's looking like CA is serious about building more housing units, mostly higher density multi family in cities. Add in a long-term demographic decline in the US and a likely continued net negative migration out of CA, and this *should* put downward pressure on rents, including SFH. I say should because, admittedly, this is uncommon in CA except for short blips (SoCal in the 90s, the housing bust, and COVID migration). So who knows?

[GilesMM]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

I've been watching this fire closely and the people I know in Lake California (a place that's my version of Hell) about 10 miles from the fire's western border have been able to return home .... but... it seems things are shifting right now. Hotter, drier, winds shifting towards the West etc so they aren't out of the woods yet. I think the heavy ash and smoke is keeping most people away anyways. It's a monster fire though and likely to flare up somewhere. I left my place as escrow closes next week (crossed fingers) and we are staying by the coast now. But I really would have liked to stay up there longer but it's just too much a tinder box now. Plus without a car myself I'd have to evacuate by bicycle if BF wasn't around. At least it's all downhill ;-).

We drove from Reno to Oregon yesterday and went the long way via Sac to avoid the smoke. I5 was fine, luckily.

[spartana]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

I've been watching this fire closely and the people I know in Lake California (a place that's my version of Hell) about 10 miles from the fire's western border have been able to return home .... but... it seems things are shifting right now. Hotter, drier, winds shifting towards the West etc so they aren't out of the woods yet. I think the heavy ash and smoke is keeping most people away anyways. It's a monster fire though and likely to flare up somewhere. I left my place as escrow closes next week (crossed fingers) and we are staying by the coast now. But I really would have liked to stay up there longer but it's just too much a tinder box now. Plus without a car myself I'd have to evacuate by bicycle if BF wasn't around. At least it's all downhill ;-).

We drove from Reno to Oregon yesterday and went the long way via Sac to avoid the smoke. I5 was fine, luckily.

You mean "The" I-5 ;-). Yeah winds have been blowing towards the east and lots of smoke all the way across several states.

[spartana]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

I've been watching this fire closely and the people I know in Lake California (a place that's my version of Hell) about 10 miles from the fire's western border have been able to return home .... but... it seems things are shifting right now. Hotter, drier, winds shifting towards the West etc so they aren't out of the woods yet. I think the heavy ash and smoke is keeping most people away anyways. It's a monster fire though and likely to flare up somewhere. I left my place as escrow closes next week (crossed fingers) and we are staying by the coast now. But I really would have liked to stay up there longer but it's just too much a tinder box now. Plus without a car myself I'd have to evacuate by bicycle if BF wasn't around. At least it's all downhill ;-).

Glad you're staying safe, best wishes on the escrow.

A downhill bike evacuation may be faster if traffic backs up. My main concern would be safety. Drivers on the best of days tend to lose their minds if a bike is in front of them, in a heightened evacuation state it this would be terrifying.

RE rent vs. own. I think we may be entering a prolonged period where renting makes more sense. It's looking like CA is serious about building more housing units, mostly higher density multi family in cities. Add in a long-term demographic decline in the US and a likely continued net negative migration out of CA, and this *should* put downward pressure on rents, including SFH. I say should because, admittedly, this is uncommon in CA except for short blips (SoCal in the 90s, the housing bust, and COVID migration). So who knows?

Thanks. It's all stressful and like I said I'd just keep it longer and take my chances but trying to compromise on a joint place to live we both like. Whether we buy eventually will depend on the market. We both made a mint on selling our individual coastal SoCal places during the pandemic so could financially stay in the area and buy but still would rather rent for now. Just have a short term rental now and plan to hit the road to explore once all the house stuff is done. Of course the same climate change issues will crop up if staying in Calif  - fires, floods, earthquakes, mud/land slides, not able to insure, etc - so that makes renting long term much more appealing.

[GuitarStv]

“Not once, but twice. What are the odds?” he said.

Pretty good, I'd say, if you choose to live in that area. And the odds are increasing.

Looking at the Cohasset pictures, those homes were not practicing good fire hygiene as there are trees maybe 50 feet from the houses. California requires a 100 feet zone in a "State Responsibility Area." This may not have been an SRA but the town should've followed the same rules.

Yeah, that quote stuck out to me as well for the same reason. In the language of probabilities, these were independent events. If you live in a place with a high probability for wildfire the odds of your house burning down are high, regardless of how many houses you lost in the past. If they buy again in, say, Forest Ranch then the odds of losing that home are also very high.

Confession time: curiosity got the best of me and I looked up their details. Not going to post specifics here, but it's all public record. The house in Cohasset was indeed "affordable" in the sense that it was on the lower end of prices. But that, in large part, was likely because the property needed a ton of fire mitigation work. Based on satellite imagery, which is usually pretty up to date, there's little defensible space around the structure.  And there were other options in the same price range in cities/tows in the valley, so I'm not buying the notion that it was the only thing they could afford.

Again, I don't want to be overly critical. What they're going through is really hard and I feel for them. But I wish the media would vet these stories better rather than presenting the most sympathetic narrative. This should be a cautionary tale but instead comes across as just a series of unfortunate random events.

It helps to remind yourself that we're participating in this conversation as a self-selecting group of people interested in the impacts of climate change, insurance and policy.  We are the weird ones in most of the world's eyes.

Most people think "I want to live in the country" and stop at that.

Also people suck at understanding odds.  You know how many folks will look at a roulette table where there has been six reds in a row and then be sure that the odds are better that black will come up next?

[RWD]

You mean "The" I-5 ;-).

Don't you Californians just call it "The 5?" Everyone I knew growing up in the Northwest called it "I-5."

[FINate]

You mean "The" I-5 ;-).

Don't you Californians just call it "The 5?" Everyone I knew growing up in the Northwest called it "I-5."

It's a NorCal vs SoCal shibboleth. Northerners say I-5 whereas southerners say The 5.

[spartana]

You mean "The" I-5 ;-).

Don't you Californians just call it "The 5?" Everyone I knew growing up in the Northwest called it "I-5."

Well I'm half Norcal and half SoCal so improvised;-). But yeah - The 5 is correct and everyone else is wrong!

[oneday]

Containment has reached 25% on the Park Fire, which is great considering they're still battling a 200+ mile fire front. It's difficult to comprehend how large these things are. They've had a few days of more moderate temperatures and higher overnight humidity, so hopefully the lines they've put in will hold with hotter windier conditions this weekend.

I've been watching this fire closely and the people I know in Lake California (a place that's my version of Hell) about 10 miles from the fire's western border have been able to return home .... but... it seems things are shifting right now. Hotter, drier, winds shifting towards the West etc so they aren't out of the woods yet. I think the heavy ash and smoke is keeping most people away anyways. It's a monster fire though and likely to flare up somewhere. I left my place as escrow closes next week (crossed fingers) and we are staying by the coast now. But I really would have liked to stay up there longer but it's just too much a tinder box now. Plus without a car myself I'd have to evacuate by bicycle if BF wasn't around. At least it's all downhill ;-).

We drove from Reno to Oregon yesterday and went the long way via Sac to avoid the smoke. I5 was fine, luckily.

You mean "The" I-5 ;-). Yeah winds have been blowing towards the east and lots of smoke all the way across several states.

It's not "The" I-5 when you are near Sacramento :)

[spartana]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

[oneday]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

Now you're just toying with me :)

[spartana]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

Now you're just toying with me :)

Ha ha yeah! My Dad, and all his side of the family,  immigrated to NorCal and grew up in the Auburn and Tahoe area so roll their eyes at my SoCal ways;-). One of my next goals in life is to live where there's only one freeway/big highway in the area (preferably THE 101 if innCalif). Im trying to align that goal with climate change goals but it's not happening. Plus $$$ for housing cost. I lived in Marin County for awhile and loved it but very unaffordable now.

[tj]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

Now you're just toying with me :)

Ha ha yeah! My Dad, and all his side of the family,  immigrated to NorCal and grew up in the Auburn and Tahoe area so roll their eyes at my SoCal ways;-). One of my next goals in life is to live where there's only one freeway/big highway in the area (preferably THE 101 if innCalif). Im trying to align that goal with climate change goals but it's not happening. Plus $$$ for housing cost. I lived in Marin County for awhile and loved it but very unaffordable now.

I thought you were going to bail on California?

[spartana]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

Now you're just toying with me :)

Ha ha yeah! My Dad, and all his side of the family,  immigrated to NorCal and grew up in the Auburn and Tahoe area so roll their eyes at my SoCal ways;-). One of my next goals in life is to live where there's only one freeway/big highway in the area (preferably THE 101 if innCalif). Im trying to align that goal with climate change goals but it's not happening. Plus $$$ for housing cost. I lived in Marin County for awhile and loved it but very unaffordable now.

I thought you were going to bail on California?

Well I'd like to but gotta make those (stupid) compromises for partner ;-). He gave up living in Hawaii for me so I guess the least I can do is give up living in the mountains and stay in coastal Calif for him.

[tj]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

Now you're just toying with me :)

Ha ha yeah! My Dad, and all his side of the family,  immigrated to NorCal and grew up in the Auburn and Tahoe area so roll their eyes at my SoCal ways;-). One of my next goals in life is to live where there's only one freeway/big highway in the area (preferably THE 101 if innCalif). Im trying to align that goal with climate change goals but it's not happening. Plus $$$ for housing cost. I lived in Marin County for awhile and loved it but very unaffordable now.

I thought you were going to bail on California?

Well I'd like to but gotta make those (stupid) compromises for partner ;-). He gave up living in Hawaii for me so I guess the least I can do is give up living in the mountains and stay in coastal Calif for him.

Wow. I didn't know it was that serious. Good for you.

[GilesMM]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

Now you're just toying with me :)

Ha ha yeah! My Dad, and all his side of the family,  immigrated to NorCal and grew up in the Auburn and Tahoe area so roll their eyes at my SoCal ways;-). One of my next goals in life is to live where there's only one freeway/big highway in the area (preferably THE 101 if innCalif). Im trying to align that goal with climate change goals but it's not happening. Plus $$$ for housing cost. I lived in Marin County for awhile and loved it but very unaffordable now.

I've always been partial to HWY1.

[spartana]

You mean there's another city in Calif? I thought It was just LA and SF and nothing but a Mad Max land of desolation and fires inbetween ;-). All my cousins live up that way but they live off The 50.

Now you're just toying with me :)

Ha ha yeah! My Dad, and all his side of the family,  immigrated to NorCal and grew up in the Auburn and Tahoe area so roll their eyes at my SoCal ways;-). One of my next goals in life is to live where there's only one freeway/big highway in the area (preferably THE 101 if innCalif). Im trying to align that goal with climate change goals but it's not happening. Plus $$$ for housing cost. I lived in Marin County for awhile and loved it but very unaffordable now.

I thought you were going to bail on California?

Well I'd like to but gotta make those (stupid) compromises for partner ;-). He gave up living in Hawaii for me so I guess the least I can do is give up living in the mountains and stay in coastal Calif for him.

Wow. I didn't know it was that serious. Good for you.

We've been together for years on and off and lived together for most of the past 4 - 5 years but had a few "breaks" due to family or life style reasons. As you know I'm a weirdo commitmentphobe who wouldn't make a long term commitment to anyone not FIRE (or soon-to-be-FIRE) and he FIREd at the beginning of the pandemic...finally.  Where to live however has always been a big point of contension and trying to figure that out now. 

Like @Giles said, anywhere along THE 1 is great but too remote in some places or very expensive. Also, the environmental/climate hazards might be too risky to put so much into buying housing if you can't be covered by insurance. Renting would be ok though in most places like Monerey or Santa Cruz or Morro Bay etc even if costly. And we can do a small house or apt easily.

[theoverlook]

Again, I don't want to be overly critical. What they're going through is really hard and I feel for them. But I wish the media would vet these stories better rather than presenting the most sympathetic narrative. This should be a cautionary tale but instead comes across as just a series of unfortunate random events.

The media really do find people to fit their narrative and spin things to generate sympathy and views. I remember an article in, I believe, People, about homeowners at risk of foreclosure and how they were near losing their homes despite "doing everything right." (It actually said that in the article - these people did "everything right.") But upon reading the article you would find that every single one of the people had used home equity loans or refinancing to pull equity out of their homes, multiple times, just to spend it on things not invest it. That was their idea of a group of homeowners put upon by a poor economy. It seemed more like a bunch of high risk gamblers who finally lost their roll.

[former player]

Another hurricane in Florida, the main problem is flooding -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4xxdknr94o

[spartana]

Another hurricane in Florida, the main problem is flooding -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4xxdknr94o

While it's not a big hurricane it's suppose to dump historic levels of rainfall (the 'once in a thousand years" level) and cause massive flooding. Something like 30 inches of rain expected in coastal areas of North Carolina.

Meanwhile in SoCal we have another wildfire in a populated area. Just started and not big but has burnt down several houses and evacuation orders are in place. I think it's around 95F in LA today and over 100 in most inland areas.

[GilesMM]

Another hurricane in Florida, the main problem is flooding -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4xxdknr94o

While it's not a big hurricane it's suppose to dump historic levels of rainfall (the 'once in a thousand years" level) and cause massive flooding. Something like 30 inches of rain expected in coastal areas of North Carolina.

Meanwhile in SoCal we have another wildfire in a populated area. Just started and not big but has burnt down several houses and evacuation orders are in place. I think it's around 95F in LA today and over 100 in most inland areas.

More storms and more damage means more claims and costs for insurers which can drive up rates for all of us eventually, even outside storm areas.  I don't know how it all works on a regional or national scale but hard to believe insurers struggling from claims in FL won't try to make up the difference with higher rates elsewhere. I know CA doesn't allow that (no re-insurance outside the state) which has actually made their rates even higher.

[spartana]

Another hurricane in Florida, the main problem is flooding -

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj4xxdknr94o

While it's not a big hurricane it's suppose to dump historic levels of rainfall (the 'once in a thousand years" level) and cause massive flooding. Something like 30 inches of rain expected in coastal areas of North Carolina.

Meanwhile in SoCal we have another wildfire in a populated area. Just started and not big but has burnt down several houses and evacuation orders are in place. I think it's around 95F in LA today and over 100 in most inland areas.

More storms and more damage means more claims and costs for insurers which can drive up rates for all of us eventually, even outside storm areas.  I don't know how it all works on a regional or national scale but hard to believe insurers struggling from claims in FL won't try to make up the difference with higher rates elsewhere. I know CA doesn't allow that (no re-insurance outside the state) which has actually made their rates even higher.

I can definitely see that happening. Especially with all the very expensive homes here and what it would cost to repair or rebuild them. The insurance companies will be taking a big hit added to the already big hit in other states. But much easier to replace a bunch of $200k homes compared to replace the same number of $2 million homes.

I probably mentioned this already but on the news they said insurance companies were (illegally) using drones to check people property to decide whether to renew their policy. One lady was doing renovations and had a big pile of debris in her yard and, using a drone, the insurer decided she was a hoarder and high fire and damage risk and dropped her coverage.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/sacramento/news/modesto-home-insurance-dropped-clutter-unsanitary-during-renovation-call-kurtis/

[ChpBstrd]

Kinda weird to see Geico and Allstate commercials and ads everywhere, while simultaneously insurers are dropping customers aggressively and exiting entire regions.

Apparently some customers/areas are uninsurable, or not profitable to work with at any price. So the goal is to cycle out those customers and fight over the ones who never make claims. This violates some of our assumptions about markets - that someone will always come along and offer a product, perhaps at a high price, to even the least desirable customers.

Insurance could be different. When you're collecting premiums of 1-3% of a property's replacement value in exchange for a liability of 100% of the property's replacement value (a couple of years from now, with inflation), perhaps there comes a point where the premiums would have to rise so high as to not be affordable by the customers. People are struggling to come up with the now-common 6-7% down payments to buy houses - what happens when the insurance premium is 4-5% per year, every year? There's no profitable market is what happens.

It's like selling car insurance to a spiraling alcoholic with three DWIs in the past few months. Even if you quadruple the premium, you know they are heading for a crash within the next year. Even if they can afford a $10,000/year premium, you as the insurer will still lose money on the $50,000 claim you know is coming.

[FINate]

Kinda weird to see Geico and Allstate commercials and ads everywhere, while simultaneously insurers are dropping customers aggressively and exiting entire regions.

Apparently some customers/areas are uninsurable, or not profitable to work with at any price. So the goal is to cycle out those customers and fight over the ones who never make claims. This violates some of our assumptions about markets - that someone will always come along and offer a product, perhaps at a high price, to even the least desirable customers.

Insurance could be different. When you're collecting premiums of 1-3% of a property's replacement value in exchange for a liability of 100% of the property's replacement value (a couple of years from now, with inflation), perhaps there comes a point where the premiums would have to rise so high as to not be affordable by the customers. People are struggling to come up with the now-common 6-7% down payments to buy houses - what happens when the insurance premium is 4-5% per year, every year? There's no profitable market is what happens.

It's like selling car insurance to a spiraling alcoholic with three DWIs in the past few months. Even if you quadruple the premium, you know they are heading for a crash within the next year. Even if they can afford a $10,000/year premium, you as the insurer will still lose money on the $50,000 claim you know is coming.

It's possible insurance doesn't operate under the laws of economics, but that would make it highly unusual. The power of the market is such a consistently observed phenomena. We really need to consider other, more likely, explanations first.

You may be seeing ads for insurance companies while they're pulling back from homeowners policies because the insurance industry is a lot larger and diverse. Things like auto, renters, umbrella, and so on. These other types of insurance may be very profitable while they're losing money on homeowners.

Then there are government polices that distort the market. In CA, which I'm quite familiar with, a state agency effectively caps prices thereby artificially limiting premiums to unprofitable levels based on forward looking risk modeling. There has been some reform to allow upward adjustments (hence the large premium increases in recent months), but in many cases the market is still below the clearing price. The hard reality in many parts of CA is insurance prices need to go quite a bit higher to accurately reflect the growing risk from climate change. This is understandably deeply unpopular so elected officials are trying to walk a tight rope of doing what's necessary while slowing it down and/or making it look like they're being helpful. In he meantime, competition is not going to rush in to fill the market need if they cannot do so at a profit.

Finally, there's the mess that is the FAIR plan further complicating the picture. FAIR is the insurer of last resort established by the state. It is privately owned, but backstopped by insurers operating in the state. If a fire wipes out FAIR's reserves then insurers like Allstate and Geico are on the hook to cover the excess claims in proportion to their market share. By holding all the highest risk properties in the state, FAIR is at very high risk of being wiped out, and no insurance company wants to be left holding the bag. So they're all in a race to reduce their overall market share in CA.

[GilesMM]

Kinda weird to see Geico and Allstate commercials and ads everywhere, while simultaneously insurers are dropping customers aggressively and exiting entire regions.

Apparently some customers/areas are uninsurable, or not profitable to work with at any price. So the goal is to cycle out those customers and fight over the ones who never make claims. This violates some of our assumptions about markets - that someone will always come along and offer a product, perhaps at a high price, to even the least desirable customers.

Insurance could be different. When you're collecting premiums of 1-3% of a property's replacement value in exchange for a liability of 100% of the property's replacement value (a couple of years from now, with inflation), perhaps there comes a point where the premiums would have to rise so high as to not be affordable by the customers. People are struggling to come up with the now-common 6-7% down payments to buy houses - what happens when the insurance premium is 4-5% per year, every year? There's no profitable market is what happens.

It's like selling car insurance to a spiraling alcoholic with three DWIs in the past few months. Even if you quadruple the premium, you know they are heading for a crash within the next year. Even if they can afford a $10,000/year premium, you as the insurer will still lose money on the $50,000 claim you know is coming.

Insurers are not going out of business by any means so they will continue to advertise.  I don't think you will see them on billboards in markets they want to exit, but everywhere else they carry on.  In fact, if there is a public perception they are no longer offering insurance anywhere, all the more reason to advertise that they are.

[twinstudy]

Kinda weird to see Geico and Allstate commercials and ads everywhere, while simultaneously insurers are dropping customers aggressively and exiting entire regions.

Apparently some customers/areas are uninsurable, or not profitable to work with at any price. So the goal is to cycle out those customers and fight over the ones who never make claims. This violates some of our assumptions about markets - that someone will always come along and offer a product, perhaps at a high price, to even the least desirable customers.

Insurance could be different. When you're collecting premiums of 1-3% of a property's replacement value in exchange for a liability of 100% of the property's replacement value (a couple of years from now, with inflation), perhaps there comes a point where the premiums would have to rise so high as to not be affordable by the customers. People are struggling to come up with the now-common 6-7% down payments to buy houses - what happens when the insurance premium is 4-5% per year, every year? There's no profitable market is what happens.

It's like selling car insurance to a spiraling alcoholic with three DWIs in the past few months. Even if you quadruple the premium, you know they are heading for a crash within the next year. Even if they can afford a $10,000/year premium, you as the insurer will still lose money on the $50,000 claim you know is coming.

Makes sense for insurance to become a more and more selective market - which is how the free market works. It can be a bit problematic with things that are group-rated though (ie everyone pays the same premium, or at least a premium that is not dependent on all individual factors). Fortunately home and car insurance are not.

[GilesMM]

Citizens says the Florida insurance "market is improving".  Only $11,000/yr average cost for Floridians (vs $2300 nationwide).  Crikey.


https://www.newsweek.com/florida-biggest-insurer-increase-rates-1935388

[2sk22]

Citizens says the Florida insurance "market is improving".  Only $11,000/yr average cost for Floridians (vs $2300 nationwide).  Crikey.


https://www.newsweek.com/florida-biggest-insurer-increase-rates-1935388

What they are saying is that the Citizens (the insurer of last resort) would have to raise their rates by 93% in order to be uncompetitive with private insurers! By law Citizens has to be more expensive than private insurers but they cannot raise their rates  than a certain percentage every year (10% as I recall). A real catch 22 situation.

Meanwhile, there has been flooding in a fairly big swathe of southwestern Florida as a result of Debby: https://www.wusf.org/weather/2024-08-06/debby-aftermath-severe-sarasota-flooding-storm-surge-along-coast

[NorCal]

I just came across a good article on Bloomberg this group would appreciate.  I've referenced First Street on here a few times.  Bloomberg is highlighting how even the best flooding models come to dramatically different conclusions when looking at the details. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-flood-fire-climate-risk-analytics/?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcyMzIyMTY4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzIzODI2NDg1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTSFlLR0VEV1gyUFMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJEQTk1RTUyQjRFNDg0RTBDOEIyRDVCMUM1NDU4NDAyRSJ9.E0bkBCpHgvbx5Wk86oXQuuT3F4WEr93rUMfCSEIiYUU

[spartana]

I just came across a good article on Bloomberg this group would appreciate.  I've referenced First Street on here a few times.  Bloomberg is highlighting how even the best flooding models come to dramatically different conclusions when looking at the details. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-flood-fire-climate-risk-analytics/?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcyMzIyMTY4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzIzODI2NDg1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTSFlLR0VEV1gyUFMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJEQTk1RTUyQjRFNDg0RTBDOEIyRDVCMUM1NDU4NDAyRSJ9.E0bkBCpHgvbx5Wk86oXQuuT3F4WEr93rUMfCSEIiYUU

That's interesting. And weird that they came to two different conclusions. Im feeling like I dodge a bullet - at least a potential bullet - by moving out of the SoCal mountains since apparently there's some big fires there (24,000 acres now for one of them). Not likely to hit my former hood but you never know! Plus the smoke is bad up there.

[tj]

I just came across a good article on Bloomberg this group would appreciate.  I've referenced First Street on here a few times.  Bloomberg is highlighting how even the best flooding models come to dramatically different conclusions when looking at the details. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-flood-fire-climate-risk-analytics/?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcyMzIyMTY4NSwiZXhwIjoxNzIzODI2NDg1LCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTSFlLR0VEV1gyUFMwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJEQTk1RTUyQjRFNDg0RTBDOEIyRDVCMUM1NDU4NDAyRSJ9.E0bkBCpHgvbx5Wk86oXQuuT3F4WEr93rUMfCSEIiYUU

That's interesting. And weird that they came to two different conclusions. Im feeling like I dodge a bullet - at least a potential bullet - by moving out of the SoCal mountains since apparently there's some big fires there (24,000 acres now for one of them). Not likely to hit my former hood but you never know! Plus the smoke is bad up there.

Yikes - and the evacuation centers are in Fontana and Victorville.

https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2024/9/5/line-fire

[FINate]

Big Bear Valley from the Dam to Cactus Rd (essentially the entire valley I think) is now under an evacuation warning: https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/incident-information/cabdf-line-fire#

[spartana]

Big Bear Valley from the Dam to Cactus Rd (essentially the entire valley I think) is now under an evacuation warning: https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/incident-information/cabdf-line-fire#

That's like...all the roads there! I read that of the 3 roads down the mountain only the one that goes far far out of the way for most people (Hwy 18 east) is open. Probably over 100 miles out of the way. Its pretty dry there so not surprised wildfires are starting up. 2 more nearby but not as big but more populated I think.

[FINate]

Big Bear Valley from the Dam to Cactus Rd (essentially the entire valley I think) is now under an evacuation warning: https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/incident-information/cabdf-line-fire#

That's like...all the roads there! I read that of the 3 roads down the mountain only the one that goes far far out of the way for most people (Hwy 18 east) is open. Probably over 100 miles out of the way. Its pretty dry there so not surprised wildfires are starting up. 2 more nearby but not as big but more populated I think.

Yes, seems like 18 north to the desert is the only option. It's just an evacuation warning at this point, the firefighters will hopefully stop it from getting there, but this thing will burn for weeks and all it takes is one southwesterly wind event to push it to Big Bear. I wouldn't feel great trying to get out in a hurry with everyone else on a single highway. Thoughts with the people there, please stay safe.

[GilesMM]

FYI, Google maps now has overlays  for air quality and wildfire locations which, in addition to road closures, are useful for route planning. We used them to get around the northern california wildfires last month without choking to death.

[spartana]

Big Bear Valley from the Dam to Cactus Rd (essentially the entire valley I think) is now under an evacuation warning: https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/incident-information/cabdf-line-fire#

That's like...all the roads there! I read that of the 3 roads down the mountain only the one that goes far far out of the way for most people (Hwy 18 east) is open. Probably over 100 miles out of the way. Its pretty dry there so not surprised wildfires are starting up. 2 more nearby but not as big but more populated I think.

Yes, seems like 18 north to the desert is the only option. It's just an evacuation warning at this point, the firefighters will hopefully stop it from getting there, but this thing will burn for weeks and all it takes is one southwesterly wind event to push it to Big Bear. I wouldn't feel great trying to get out in a hurry with everyone else on a single highway. Thoughts with the people there, please stay safe.

They haven't evacuated Big Bear yet and are trying hard to protect it but yeah, with only one road to evacuate out of I'd be gone myself. Of course, if I was still living alone and carless,  I'd be doing it by human-powered bicycle thru thick smoke. At least it's down hill all the way ;-)! The fires grown to over 27,000 acres now and moving towards Big Bear but can be contained. But with 2 other big fires in SoCal resources are thin. Just glad I GTFO last month.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.sbsun.com/2024/09/10/attempt-to-protect-big-bear-from-line-fire-is-looking-good-fire-official-says/amp/

[LaineyAZ]

Related to the firefighting stuff:  I see that California's Gov. Newsom has signed a law in 2020 allowing inmate firefighters to apply to become professional firefighters after they complete their sentence.  Seems like a good deal for everyone. 

I hope more states consider that option given that wildfires are expected to increase due to climate change.

[spartana]

Related to the firefighting stuff:  I see that California's Gov. Newsom has signed a law in 2020 allowing inmate firefighters to apply to become professional firefighters after they complete their sentence.  Seems like a good deal for everyone. 

I hope more states consider that option given that wildfires are expected to increase due to climate change.

I had read somewhere that a lot of inmate firefighters in Calif have a hard time finding firefighting jobs once released so not sure how that will work out but a step in the right direction.

As for the fires in SoCal (I'm currently in Orange County until Sunday) it getting bad. 3 huge fires with zero containment wiping out a lot of mountain towns and beautiful forests (Big Bear Lake is evacuating now) as well as many homes and businesses. The smoke is bad too.