Author Topic: 2005-2013 US RE Trend  (Read 3127 times)

tryan

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2005-2013 US RE Trend
« on: May 24, 2013, 01:20:15 PM »
Nice series of maps ... shows the depth of the fall.

But also - knock on wood - that we're lifting out of the abyss

http://www.newyorkfed.org/home-price-index/

So what are you seeing in your neck of the woods?

freelancerNfulltimer

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2013, 01:30:10 PM »
Here in North Florida it looks like houses are moving more quickly and the prices they sell for are much closer to the asking prices than they used to be. I don't know if that's because people are doing a better job of pricing the homes to begin with or if purchase prices are improving. The house next door to me finally sold after sitting vacant for over a year. It was way overpriced for what is essentially a very large two bedroom home with a weird kitchen and bathroom configuration. I was shocked someone was willing to pay $113/sqft for it. Two years ago I paid $100/sqft for mine.

There are a ton of new construction going up too. Both condos and single family homes. What's weird is though there are all these new construction projects starting, that the new construction that was stopped at varying levels of completion a few years ago haven't started back up. They're still unfinished and nobody is working on them.

tryan

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2013, 01:54:00 PM »
Quote

Two years ago I paid $100/sqft for mine.


Congrats!  Looks like you got in very near the bottom (only time will tell).

I am north of Boston.  Last cycle like this was 1989-2001 ... 12 long years before the old peak was hit again.  6 years down ... 6 years up.  Lots of carnage along the way. 

So if history repeats ... 2005 would have been the peak here (2006 everything wavered near the peak while the mortgage industry imploded).  2011 a bottom .... old peak topped ~2017.  Nobody knows the future (and I don't forecast).  My message is only that if your holding for a new peak (to sell or refi your underwater mortgage) .... brace yourself for at least another 5+ years. 

arebelspy

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2013, 01:55:05 PM »
Lack of supply (created artificially via inventory shortages, both done by the banks and laws passed) + extra demand (created artificially via low interest rates) = rising prices.

It's no surprise.

/posted from the darkest green area possible.
//just went to a real estate meeting last night on a new senate bill that will cause us to continue to see more of the same from the last year and 1/2.
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Bank

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2013, 02:04:41 PM »
Didn't see much of a decline in Metro Boston, but prices were stagnant from 2007-2012.  These last twelve months prices are up sharply.  Inventory is low and buyers are plentiful.  Very glad we bought last year.

Johnny Aloha

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2013, 02:11:54 PM »
Very strong seller's market in my area.  Any decent house will have multiple cash offers range from 5-30% over asking price.

freelancerNfulltimer

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2013, 06:06:41 PM »
Lack of supply (created artificially via inventory shortages, both done by the banks and laws passed) + extra demand (created artificially via low interest rates) = rising prices.

It's no surprise.

/posted from the darkest green area possible.
//just went to a real estate meeting last night on a new senate bill that will cause us to continue to see more of the same from the last year and 1/2.

Do you think the inventory will be slowly doled out until it's gone or do you think it's going to eventually turn from a trickle into a deluge? I've got my condo that I bought at the height in 2006 that is a big money suck that I can't wait to unload. If I can refinance in the next few months through HARP that will help a lot but I'm still probably going to have it 'til 2018/2022 if I don't short sell. So I guess I'm hoping for a continuous trickle.

arebelspy

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2013, 06:15:02 PM »
Lack of supply (created artificially via inventory shortages, both done by the banks and laws passed) + extra demand (created artificially via low interest rates) = rising prices.

It's no surprise.

/posted from the darkest green area possible.
//just went to a real estate meeting last night on a new senate bill that will cause us to continue to see more of the same from the last year and 1/2.

Do you think the inventory will be slowly doled out until it's gone or do you think it's going to eventually turn from a trickle into a deluge? I've got my condo that I bought at the height in 2006 that is a big money suck that I can't wait to unload. If I can refinance in the next few months through HARP that will help a lot but I'm still probably going to have it 'til 2018/2022 if I don't short sell. So I guess I'm hoping for a continuous trickle.

I don't think the banks are dumb enough (anymore) to flood the market.  We'll see a flatline when interest rates start to rise, but I doubt we'll see it go down a big jump again.

And if and when inflation hits they'll head up as well.  It's all cyclical though, it'll fall again to the same in real dollars, just not nominal.

Of course my crystal ball constantly says "ask again later," so you take that with a grain of salt. ;)
We are two former teachers who accumulated a bunch of real estate, retired at 29, and now travel the world full time with two kids.
If you want to know more about me, or how we did that, or see lots of pictures, this Business Insider profile tells our story pretty well.
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Another Reader

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2013, 06:34:09 PM »
I can only speak for the Phoenix market.  In Phoenix, there is no shadow inventory.  Bank owned/serviced homes are almost all on the market.  If they are not, it's because of the time needed to clean them up or some kind of dispute about the mortgage insurance or about some other loan ownership issue.  As the market has shot up, defaults are being cured.  The default rate is at the lowest point in years.  There are homes that should be foreclosed on because the borrowers will never recover, but they are in work out agreements and that will happen as the modifications fail.  Anything reasonably priced has multiple offers, the demand is solid.  Cash and well qualified conventional buyers are everywhere.

Prices are up sharply, but still well below the peak in most areas.  There is price risk because of the artificially low interest rates, but the current crop of buyers are looking at the mortgage payment or are long term investors paying cash.  Sellers that can hold on to wait for full recovery are doing so.  That reduces inventory as well.  It's unlikely these folks will create a deluge as prices go up, but more inventory will balance the market and slow price increases.

Here in Silicon Valley, it's multiple offers everywhere and prices are at or above the last peak in the most desirable areas.  Why on earth would anyone keep a foreclosure off the market when they are recovering 100 percent? 

footenote

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Re: 2005-2013 US RE Trend
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2013, 05:32:15 AM »
Minneapolis-St. Paul metro housing market is quite brisk for median priced homes (~$100k - 300k) in popular / good schools neighborhoods. Many sell with multiple over-ask bids in less than one week.

However, many families sell and then cannot find their new home because listings are still scarce. So there is a fear factor in listing.

Another major constraint on inventory is how many middle class homes are still underwater, even at "recovered" listing prices. Second mortgages just took too much money out of homes pre-crash. One 40 yr old friend interviewing for a much better job out of state told me she would have to empty her 401k to retire the 2nd mortgage and list at a sellable price (vs a short sale). [shudder]

Realtor friend says high end homes ($1m+) are not moving.